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Romney/Democrat and Obama/Republican congressional districts

by: krazen1211

Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:29:49 AM EST


Prior to this election there were 58 districts held by Republicans that districts won by Obama in 2008. Redistricting, combined with Obama 2012's slide in the popular vote, has certainly drastically cut that figure. I'd hazard a guess that the number is now below 20.

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12
MN-07
AZ-01

Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18

Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (51% Obama)
NY-11
NY-02
VA-02 (50% Obama)
MN-02 (49% Obama)
MN-03 (49% Obama)
NY-19
NV-03
CO-06
WA-08
FL-27

Obama/Republican Plausible:
FL-13

krazen1211 :: Romney/Democrat and Obama/Republican congressional districts
If anyone can confirm these districts or provide some more I can add them to the list.
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NY19 went Obama IIRC
I'd check VA10 too  

NJ
Definitely NJ-02, probably NJ-03 and maybe NJ-04 (the turnout at the shore was slaughtered, but ballots may still count), and an outside shot at NJ-07.

NJ-07 would be interesting
Runyan won the Ocean County section of NJ-03 by 24k and the Burlington section by about 2k. At a guess, Romney lost the district by 15000 or so votes.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I don't see how NJ-07 makes it
Romney won Hunterdon by 11k. He would have won the Somerset portion of that district by at least 5k (Franklin township is elsewhere).

Maybe he loses Millburn by 2k, but then you have the Republican areas of Union, parts of Morris, parts of Warren.

At a guess he hit 52% here.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Yes
Wait for when we get the final numbers in NJ and Staten Island.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Miami-Dade Romney/Obama map
I'm not sure which is with which district offhand, but it was a wipeout.

Miami-Dade map

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


Yup
We lost FL because of the Cuban vote. Did Romney lose all 3 districts?

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
we probably got Diaz Balart's.
A lot of territory outside Dade in that district.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
2 years ago, Rick Scott won the Hispanic vote
50-48%. I know a presidential year brings about a different kind of voter, but what a change.

Never thought I'd see a day where a Republican running statewide gets a higher % of the vote in Palm Beach County than Miami-Dade.


[ Parent ]
yep
2004:

Palm Beach:

Bush - 212688 (39.1%)
Kerry - 328687 (60.4%)

Dade:

Bush - 361095 (46.6%)
Kerry - 409732 (52.9%)

2012:

Palm Beach:

Romney - 228611 (41%)
Obama - 323862 (58%)

Dade:

Romney - 331488 (38%)
Obama - 538646 (62%)  

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
41% Mitt in PBC
Just wasn't high enough to save West & Hasner. Damn  

[ Parent ]
Romney probably won FL-18 though
I don't mind bombthrowers in the house. Worst comes to worst we get that district back shortly.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
NJ-03/07
If Obama won those seats, is it due to his response to Sandy?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

no
If he won NJ-03, it was going to be close anyway, but Sandy prevented local residents from voting easily.  If you took away the barrier islands from Christie, we'd still have Governor Corzine.

[ Parent ]
I THINK Romney won MI-6
It depends on the split townships.Putting all of Allegan outside of Holland in the 6th, I have this.

MI-6 Romney Obama Total GOP% Dem% Diff
Allegan 30674 20640 51921 59.08% 39.75% 10034
Berrien 35458 31249 67307 52.68% 46.43% 4209
Cass 12660 9587 22461 56.36% 42.68% 3073
K-zoo 52660 69045 122880 42.85% 56.19% -16385
St Joe 12975 10106 23314 55.65% 43.35% 2869
VBuren 16140 16228 32798 49.21% 49.48% -88
Holland 1651 1046 2722 60.65% 38.43% 605
Total 160567 156855 320681 50.07% 48.91% 3712

Since it's hard to read:
I have it at 50.07% Romney, 48.91% Obama with a 3712 vote spread.

If I'm wrong with municipal breaks, it may have gone the other way since the townships around Holland are blood red.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


I believe you are correct
All of Allegan is in the 6th district except that some of the Allegan portion of Holland is in the 2nd.  It surprised me how close this district was.  Kalamazoo County really was a disaster for the GOP this time.

Republican in deep blue MI-14

[ Parent ]
Is there also a list of congressional Democrats in Romney seats
I think that list also shrunk with several Blue dogs wiped out.

But the surviving Blue Dogs would be on that list.

Or did Romney's increase in popular vote compared to McCain offset this?


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Apparently NH-1
Guinta should be run out of town.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NH
The numbers I crunched on NH has CD-1 at Romney 49, Owebama 50 and 2 about R 44, O 54.

[ Parent ]
Chilling
Romney couldn't even win NH-01.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
How many seats of ours have a decent chance of flipping in the next cycle?
Assuming no scandal and no unexpected retirements.

West to east:

CA: Miller, maybe Denham?  
NV: Heck
AZ: McSally
CO: Coffman (with a better Dem candidate)
IA: Latham (if he leaves it to challenge Harkin)
MN: Bachmann (probably will not keep her mouth shut)
WI: Duffy (will never be completely secure)
MI: Benishek (ditto)
IL: Davis
IN: Walorski
OH: Johnson (see Benishek), maybe Renacci
PA: Rothfus, Fitzpatrick
NY: Gibson
NJ: Runyan
FL: Young (probably retires), Southerland (better Dem candidate)

I can't think of too many others.  Good job, redistricters!  


Other direction
NH: both seats
MA: Tierney (unless he retires)
CT: Esty
NY: lots here.  Bishop, Owens, Maffei, Maloney obviously.  McCarthy, Israel with better candidates.  
WV: Rahall
NC: McIntyre
GA: Barrow
FL: Murphy, Garcia
IL: Enyart
TX: Gallego (particularly if we redraw)
UT: Matheson
AZ: Kirkpatrick, Sinema
CA: Ruiz, Bera, Brownley, Peters

I think we have more targets.  Particularly in a midterm year.  And that doesn't even begin to account for the 6-year itch factor...


[ Parent ]
I'm afraid Obama already had the 6 year itch in 2010
Like Clinton did in 94.

However we should be able to avoid 98.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
As the list here shows, the low hanging fruit
Has mostly been picked already. We are now left with more marginal seats and/or stronger campaigners  

[ Parent ]
I think Reagan is the better comparison there
98 happened because Clinton reacted to 94 well (by not pretending it was a fluke) and because of the blow-back from the Lewinsky affair.

Reagan on the other hand had an uneventful midterm election in the house but a dramatic one in the Senate, where due to the large gains in 1980 the Republicans had to defend a large number of freshman.  The Republicans lost Senate seats not because they were unpopular but because it wasn't 1980 anymore, and I think we'll see something similar in 2014.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Depends what you mean by unexpected
I'd bet on Wolf and Young both retiring in 2014 (they wanted out this cycle, and I think an Obama midterm convinces both of them another Republican can hold their seats). So I think they're both competitive.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
CA flips
CA10, CA21 R

CA07, CA 52, CA26, CA36 R

The above will be fought over for the next 10 years

CA31 will flip and stay flipped to D

Demograpics need to be watched in:

CA09, CA10, CA03, all held by D
CA48, held by R


[ Parent ]
CA flips
CA10, CA21 R

CA07, CA 52, CA26, CA36 R

The above will be fought over for the next 10 years

CA31 will flip and stay flipped to D

Demograpics need to be watched in:

CA09, CA10, CA03, all held by D
CA48, held by R


[ Parent ]
CA-48 Rohrabacher?
http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-cont...

That district is not going D within the decade. Maybe, if OC Republicans collapse, in 2024 will this be competitive but not  now. the 20% Asians here are Republican Vietnamese refugees.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
I'm sure CA31 went Obama
IIRC it was about even PVI at best  

It likely did
But keep in mind that Republican incumbents won 8 districts that went for Obama in 2008. We don't know the numbers by district now, and they'll surely change, but if we assume a uniform move of 4 points, that the state moved, here are the possibilities, with current congressional:

CA-52 - Obama by 8, Even
CA-47 - Obama by 15, Lowenthal by 11
CA-41 - Obama by 17, Takano by 13
CA-36 - Romney by 1, Ruiz by 3
CA-31 - Obama by 11
CA-26 - Obama by 10, Brownley by 3
CA-24 - Obama by 11, Capps by 10
CA-21 - Obama by 2, Valadao by 20
CA-16 - Obama by 13, Costa by 9
CA-10 - Romney by 1, Denham by 8
CA-9 - Obama by 11, McNerney by 8
CA-7 - Obama by 1, Even
CA-3 - Obama by 9, Garamendi by 8

Except for CA-36, Republicans are probably running ahead of Mitt Romney even in seats occupied by Democratic incumbents. If the Democrats have a good candidate for CA-31 in 2014 they have a shot at knocking off Gary Miller. But it won't be a Presidential year and the district will be entirely familiar with him.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Did Romney win 7 AZ districts?
I know Obama won AZ-9 in 2008m but did Romney over-perform McCain enough to win that district?

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


VA-10 probably went for Romney
Whole jurisdictions:

Romney 115042
Obama 114260

PWC:

Romney 16741
Obama 13574

Fairfax - this is tough to chop, but Frank Wolf won this area 51416 - 33673. These are all the McCain precincts in Fairfax County.

27, R, PA-07.


Take PA-08 off of this list
Romney got 55.3398% in the Montgomery County section of PA-08.

Romney: 22,204, Obama: 17,919

In Bucks... Romney: 155,876, Obama: 159598

(155,876+22,025)/((159,598+17,919)+(155,876+22,025))=0.50054.

Romney barely won PA-08! Kerry got 51% in the seat and Obama got 54% in 2008.

Romney received 50.054% of the two party vote in PA-08. Fitzpatrick earned 56.6%, so he ran 6.6% ahead of Romney.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


MN-02, MN-03 for Romney
Unless Goldy has any dispute.

MN-02 is a 49%-49% tie, with Romney coming out ahead by 1,000 votes.  

MN-03 is 50%-48% Romney.  

27, R, PA-07.


I have to county precinct by precinct in MN-2
But I heard from someone in Richie's office that Obama won MN-2 by 300 votes. As for MN-3, your margins are WAY off. Obama won the Hennepin County portion of the district 50-48. I haven't gotten to tabulating the Chanhassen precincts yet, but tehre is no way that those votes could swing that result by 4 points. I question whether or not it could sway the result the 2 points needed to give a Romney win, but I have no hard proof of that part yet. Working on it...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
thanks
I had copied those from elsewhere. Hennepin makes it easy to check the numbers and you are be right.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
MN
From Sec of State:

  R       D       O
1  165714  170381   9170   48.00  49.35
2  184571  184802   8496   48.85  48.91
3  195806  199099   7539   48.65  49.47
4  131520  231509   8790   35.37  62.26
5   88935  269692  10464   24.10  73.07
6  205595  151182   8723   56.25  41.36
7  180358  147763   7895   53.68  43.97
8  167536  187599   8937   46.02  51.53


[ Parent ]
Thank you
Confirms what I had heard before and what I was thinking.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
CO-06 for Obama
Looks like he won the Arapahoe section by about 20,000 votes and the district by roughly 10,000.

27, R, PA-07.

VA 2 went for Obama
Not enough of a margin out of VA Beach  

[ Parent ]
Staten Island
Why did Staten Island of all places vore for Obama? Demographics? Hurricane Sandy?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

In spite of Grimm, Staten Island isn't really THAT Republican
McCain did win it 52-48 in '08, but Gore carried it rather comfortably in '00 and Clinton almost took it by double-digits in '96. I do think Sandy probably gave the president a few extra points (maybe 2 or 3) that he wouldn't have otherwise received. And for what it's worth, looking over the numbers, Staten Island's turnout was (understandably) at its lowest since '96.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Staten Island
I know it voted for Gore and Clinton but it just seems like a particularly bad fit for President Obama. Oh well.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
There are no south shore votes in the total
They were misplaced and had no polling stations.
No D trend whatsoever.
The south shore is 2-1 R in many areas.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
South Shore
Does that mean that Romney may have won Richmond County after all or does that mean that voters from the South Shore voted in other polling stations?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I don't know
He probably won it IMO.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NJ-03
What was the final O/R breakdown? It really concerns me that Jon Runyan is going to give up this seat in the middle of the decade because of a self imposed term limit. The worst part about that is that he'll be giving it up in a Presidential year.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

We need him to run in '16
He can stand down & let it go to a special in '17 conincidental with the gubernatorial race. OC will be enough  

[ Parent ]
still calculating the exact margin
Because NJ hasn't updated town by town yet. It is clearly Obama, though, somewhere between 51-47 and 50-48.

That said, how many R PVI suburban districts do the Democrats hold now? Pretty much zero.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
CA-07 & FL-26
I'm guessing those will both be R+ PVI.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
FL-18
Probably that one too.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
probably right about all 3
That said, I didn't mean for that line to be taken quite so literally. Bottom line is that we are highly likely to win an open NJ-03 seat, especially given the state bench there.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Krazen
As a former South Jersey guy, how do you think open seat races in NJ-02 and NJ-03 would go?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
hmph
I don't think we can beat Jeff Van Drew in NJ-02, and possibly not one of his 2 assemblymen. He's roughly 50.

For NJ-03, any of the 3 people from the 8th district would probably win by 5 points. The 8th district has a lot of the towns where you want to run up margins in order to break even in Burlington County.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
We would need a very popular Atlantic County officeholder.
To defeat Van Drew, who is from R leaning Cape May

[ Parent ]
Jeff Van Drew
He's 59 and tuns 60 in February. By the time this seat opens up, he could realistically be anywhere between 61 and 69.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
If , besides G. Miller, LoBiondo & Gibson are the "furthest behind enemy lines"
Then we don't have a problem in '14 of defending demographically indefensible seats  

[ Parent ]
WA-08
Obama won WA-08?! Margin? Source?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

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