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Redistricting in Hindsight: NH 1-1

by: shamlet

Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 19:47:15 PM EST


Here's a pretty clean map that would have thrown Bass and Guinta into a cage match, but left the winner safe for the decade in all likelihood. NH would go to a stable 1-1 instead of wild back-and-forth 2-0 swings.

Deviation is +/- 17 with no split towns. The Blue district is R+4 in 2008, probably more in 2012. Bass and Guinta live there; Bass represented 44% and Guinta 56%.

The Red seat was D+6 in 2008 and is Safe D, probably for Kuster.
shamlet :: Redistricting in Hindsight: NH 1-1
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Redistricting in Hindsight: NH 1-1 | 10 comments
Yep
I was thinking this earlier today.  We would have been better off if Bass had lost in 2010.  Then maybe we would have had an incumbent protection plan.

(MO-7) Voted for Brunner in MO GOP Senate primary
In this configuration
I think Bass would probably beat Guinta in a primary though. Guinta might not even be able to hold that seat in the worst years but any other Republican would.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
I am mad at Guinta and MBM
It takes something to lose in a district that Mitt won.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Did Mitt win MBM's district?
We should really target Ruiz and Shea-Porter in 2014. Although, I doubt if Shea-Porter will lose again.  
[ Parent ]
I think LCL or someone posted that it was Mitt by 1


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I was estimating
Based on 2008. Mitt probably won.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Especially to such weak candidates
MBM definitely went soft over the last few years as she used to be one of the stronger campaigners.

As a side note, one lesson present and future members might take from MBM's defeat is that's a bad career move for two sitting members of Congress to get married. It's a bright red "Gone Washington" flag.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
People actually talked about her running for FL-14
Albeit only during Mack's first flirtation with a Senate bid, since by the time he got in it was too late. As strage a move as that would have been, in hindsight it probably would have been worth the risk since Radel won such a small plurality.
[ Parent ]
I had this thought yesterday.
However, I doubt that it would have happened. The current configuration has been around for a long time.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
For a VERY long time
Only slight changes since 1881

According to one of my old Almanacs, the 1881 redistricting was designed (by Republicans) to separate Manchester and Nashua, the state's two l argest cities and (in 1881) centers of the Catholic-Democrat vote.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Redistricting in Hindsight: NH 1-1 | 10 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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