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Redistricting in Hindsight: NH 1-1

by: shamlet

Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 19:47:15 PM EST

Here's a pretty clean map that would have thrown Bass and Guinta into a cage match, but left the winner safe for the decade in all likelihood. NH would go to a stable 1-1 instead of wild back-and-forth 2-0 swings.

Deviation is +/- 17 with no split towns. The Blue district is R+4 in 2008, probably more in 2012. Bass and Guinta live there; Bass represented 44% and Guinta 56%.

The Red seat was D+6 in 2008 and is Safe D, probably for Kuster.

shamlet :: Redistricting in Hindsight: NH 1-1
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I was thinking this earlier today.  We would have been better off if Bass had lost in 2010.  Then maybe we would have had an incumbent protection plan.

(MO-7) Voted for Brunner in MO GOP Senate primary

In this configuration
I think Bass would probably beat Guinta in a primary though. Guinta might not even be able to hold that seat in the worst years but any other Republican would.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I am mad at Guinta and MBM
It takes something to lose in a district that Mitt won.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

Did Mitt win MBM's district?
We should really target Ruiz and Shea-Porter in 2014. Although, I doubt if Shea-Porter will lose again.  

[ Parent ]
I think LCL or someone posted that it was Mitt by 1

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
I was estimating
Based on 2008. Mitt probably won.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Especially to such weak candidates
MBM definitely went soft over the last few years as she used to be one of the stronger campaigners.

As a side note, one lesson present and future members might take from MBM's defeat is that's a bad career move for two sitting members of Congress to get married. It's a bright red "Gone Washington" flag.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
People actually talked about her running for FL-14
Albeit only during Mack's first flirtation with a Senate bid, since by the time he got in it was too late. As strage a move as that would have been, in hindsight it probably would have been worth the risk since Radel won such a small plurality.

[ Parent ]
I had this thought yesterday.
However, I doubt that it would have happened. The current configuration has been around for a long time.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

For a VERY long time
Only slight changes since 1881

According to one of my old Almanacs, the 1881 redistricting was designed (by Republicans) to separate Manchester and Nashua, the state's two l argest cities and (in 1881) centers of the Catholic-Democrat vote.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]

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