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Minnesota Elections Postmortem: OGGoldy's report card.

by: OGGoldy

Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 20:49:29 PM EST


Alright, here is me standing up and being a man, claiming victory where I was right, and eating crow where I was wrong.

Here are the links to my two prediction diaries before the election, for reference:

Percentages are the odds the favored candidate will win:
Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%
Note: " * " denotes incoming freshman in the legislature

Chief Justice, Minnesota Supreme Court: Going into this I suspected suspected that Gildea would be the strongest going into the general election (she got under 50% in the top-two runoff)

Projected: Likely Gildea
Results:  Gildea 60.0-39.6

Seat 1, Minnesota Supreme Court:  I probably let my emotions get it the way here with my thoughts that Barkley would give Anderson a race, but my final projection was right either way.

Projected: Likely Anderson
Results: Anderson 58.9-40.7

Seat 4, Minnesota Supreme Court:  I may have underestimated Tingelstad's standing a little bit in his race against stras. Either way, the projection panned out.

Projected: Likely Stras
Results: Stras 56.0-43.6

Amendment 1:  Marriage Amendment.  Okay, I got the amendments wrong. I got them dead wrong. These were my worst projections of the year. I underestimated the opposition to the marriage amendment in the Republican-held legislative districts in the suburbs. This was more than enough to counteract it getting destroyed in Democratic held rural districts.

Projected: Lean Pass
Results: Amendment failed 47.5-51.2

Amendment 2: This is the Photo ID amendment. Again, I got this won wrong. In fact, this was the only race I had rated as "Safe" that I was wrong on. Initially, the DFL just kind of ignored the amendment, as it was going to pass by wide margins. But late in the game, there was a huge "Send it back and make them do it right" push. The turning point, in my opinion, really was a hard hitting ad by a soldier that said that military IDs were not considered valid according to the amendment. This was actually a true statement, as the ID amendment explicitly required an ID with the address in the precinct. This had a much bigger impact than I thought, and the voters in rural areas, Democratic and Republic voted against this amendment by wide margins. It was surprising to see the difference between Amendment 1 and Amendment 2 votes in some rural counties, 10-25% difference in margin in some cases. This amendment actually failed by a wider margin than Amendment 1, and I would have laughed at anyone that suggested that before Election Day.

Projected: Safe Pass
Results: Amendment failed 46.3-52.2

US House Seat 1: Al Quist proved to be as weak of a candidate as I had suspected. Congressman Walz won by 15 points, which was a little narrower than I had suspected, but not far off.

Projected: Likely D
Results: Walz 57.5-42.3

US House Seat 2: This race was within a couple hundred votes presidentially, and Obermueller made a strong case to be first in line for when Kline retires, as he kept it in single digits.

Projected: Likely R
Results: Kline 54.0-45.9

US House Seat 3:  This is the other marginal congressional district presidentially, but Paulsen is popular, and the DFL didn't really contest it as Barnes was a sacrificial lamb.

Projected: Safe R
Results: Paulsen 58.1-41.8

US House Seat 4: This is the same DFL seat centered in St. Paul. McCollum's weakness in Stillwater came through, but it didn't matter in such a district

Projected: Safe D
Results: McCollum 62.3-31.5

US House Seat 5: This is the most Democratic district in the state based in Minneapolis. Republican Chris Fields ran an outstanding campaign, but it didn't matter in such a blue district.

Projected: Safe D
Results: Ellison 74.3-25.4

US House Seat 6: As expected, Michele Bachmann underperformed in her ruby red district. Any other district in the state, and she'd be out the door, but this district proved once again to be fool's gold for DFLer Jim Graves

Projected: Likely R
Results: Bachmann 50.5-49.3

US House Seat 7: Collin Peterson once again proved that Party ID doesn't always matter. This is the second most Republican district in the state, but Peterson has a stranglehold on this geographically large agricultural district until he chooses to retire. No Republican in the district could keep it within 10 if they ran.

Projected: Likely D
Results: Peterson 60.4-34.9

US House Seat 8: Cravaack was  a dead man walking in this district from the day he took office. Some out of state Republicans had thought he had a chance, but I knew better. He did not get any favors when the one Democrat he could have been competitive with, Tarryl Clark, failed in her carpetbagging effort. Furthermore, I have yet to understand the national love for Clark. She Grossly underperformed the candidates in MN-6 in the cycles before and after her, and she really had no shot in her primary in 2012 in MN-8. I don't get it, really. Regardless, Nolan returns to congress for the first time since the Carter administration.

Projected: Likely D
Results: Nolan 54.3-45.4

US Senate: Amy Klobuchar proved again she is the most popular political figure in the state of Minnesota. It didn't matter who the Republicans put up, but MNGOP put up a very weak Paulite freshman state legislator. I predicted elsewhere that Klobuchar would win all 87 counties, and win by 35. I was off, but only slightly. She won 85 counties (Rock and Pipestone Counties, in the South Dakota media market, went for Bills very narrowly), and she only won by 34.6, not 35.

Projected: Safe D
Results: Klobuchar 65.2-30.6

POTUS: Eerily like 2008. Obama pulled out of the state after he had it locked up (not that he was ever heavily invested) and Romney made a late desperation ad blitz in the state to no avail. It has now been 40 years since Republicans could crack this nut, in spite of verbal hopes to the contrary every 4 years.

Projected: Likely D
Results: 52.6-45.0

District 1: Northwest Minnesota. Long-term DFL senator Leroy Stump won easily against Theif River Falls mayor Steve Nordhagen, as I expected. District 1A freshman Republican incumbent Dan Fabian had a decent freshman term, and he easily won reelection. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel had a serious DFL challenger, but I overestimated his strength slightly.

Projected:
Senate: Likely D
House A: Likely R
House B: Tilt D*

Results
Senate: Stumpf (D) 60.5-39.5
House A: Fabian (R) 60.4-39.6
House B: Kiel (R) 51.9-48.0

District 2: Long-time DFL senator Rod Skoe won reelection, but by a slightly narrower margin than I thought, but still a solid win. I gave freshman Republican Dave Hancock the slightest edge due to incumbency, but he couldn't overcome his shortcomings in fundraising and lost by nearly 10. I guessed 2B wrong as well, I figured that former representative Sailer (D) had a huge leg up in this open seat, but it wasn't to be.

Projected:
Senate: Likely D
House A: Tilt R
House B: Likely D*

Results:
Senate: Skoe (D) 54.9-45.0
House A: Erickson (D) 54.6-45.3*
House B: Green (R) 51.0-49.0*

District 3: Northern Iron Range. The three strong incumbents had no issue. Tom Bakk will be the next Senate Majority Leader.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Results:
Senate: Bakk (D) 64.6-35.2
House A: Dill (D) 66.8-32.9
House B: Murphy (D) 64.9-35.0

District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. Representative Kent Eken beat back former Buffalo Bills standout Phil Hansen for the senate seate, in spite of the fact that Hanson dumped quite a bit of his own money into the race. It was just too blue for Hansen. In 4A, Morrie Lanning (R) retired, and while his seat will be filled, he will never be replaced in St. Paul. He was the last of a dying breed. But his seat was not winnable for any Republican other than him. DFLer Ben Lien gets the win. Incumbent DFLer Paul Marquart won easily again in 4B, on his personal popularity.

Projected:
Senate: Likely D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Likely D

Results:
Senate: Eken (D) 52.2-47.7*
House A: Lien (D) 54.8-45.0*
House B: Marquart (D) 65.2-34.7

District 5: If you want the back story here, check out the prediction diary. 6 incumbents were bunked here, and all of the Democrats won. I am genuinely surprised by the Persell result, I had Howes (R) overrated, I suppose.

Projected:
Senate: Likely D
House A: Tilt R (This will be a fun one.)
House B: Likely D

Results:
Senate: Saxhaug (D) 52.3-47.6
House A: Persell (D) 56.1-43.8
House B: Anzelc (D) 53.4-46.5

District 6: Heart of the Iron Range. 12-year incumbent senator Dave Tomassoni, and 27 year-old Carly Melin were both reelected with little fanfare. Jason Metsa, Melin's former campaign manager, won the primary for a seat for life next door, and was also easily elected.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

Results:
Senate: Tomassoni (D) 71.6-28.3
House A: Melin (D) 70.9-29.0
House B: Metsa (D) 68.2-31.6*

Disdtrict 7: Duluth. This was supposed to be boring with 3 incumbents in safe districts, and for Senator Reinert, and Representative Huntley, it was. In 7B, there was a giant mess, but in the end, Democrat Erik Simonson won 62.5-21.8, with write-in DFL candidate Jay Fosle getting nearly as many votes as the Republican, at 15.7

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

Results:
Senate: Reinert (D) 76.9-22.7
House A: Huntley (D) 70.9-28.6
House B: Simonson (D) 62.5-21.8-15.7*

District 8: This is the part of NW Minnesota that Amy Klobuchar lost in 2006 (but won this year). Expectedly, it is very conservative. Former DFL senator Dan Skogen gave a valiant effort, but came up short. Run of the mill Republican Bud Nornes won handily in 8A. 8B is a race that sort of makes me a little queasy. Mary Franson is probably the only Republican that could possibly lose this district, but as of right now she is ahead by 1 single vote. This is obviously going to a runoff, and the MNGOP is flat broke, so likely won't be able to put resources into a recount effort, but it remains to be seen if the DFL will, as this would be a 2-year rental district that would almost certainly flip back in 2014.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean R

Results:
Senate: Ingerbrigtsen (R) 52.9-47.0
House A: Nornes (R) 62.8-37.1
House B: TBD, Recount for 1-vote margin

District 9: This is fairly Republican territory in Central Minnesota. Incumbent Republican senator Paul Gazelka won his contested race. Interestingly, no strong candidates emerged for either party  in either house district. The Republicans won in the Republican leaning districts, as I had suspected would be the case.

Projected:
Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean R*
House B: Lean R*

Results:
Senate: Gazelka (R) 53.7-46.2
House A: Anderson (R) 58.0-41.9*
House B: Kresha (R) 53.0-46.9*

District 10: This is fairly marginal to center-right territory in Crow Wing and Aitkin Counties in North-central Minnesota. Carrie Ruud (R) is making a return to St. Paul after being swept out of her district in 2006. Stevenson, in spite of his youth, has raised a respectable 34k for his campaign. Ruud is a fairly vocal social conservative, and it cost Ruud her seat before, and it may do so again in the near future. This is primarily because DFLers won both of the house districts here. Incumbent John Ward once again holds down the more conservative 10A, while newcomer 26 year-old Joe Radinovich won the slightly more liberal 10B. Radinovich ran an outstanding campaign in spite of his youth and inexperience. Watch this Radinovich kid down the road, he has real potential.

Projected:
Senate: Tilt R*
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely D*

Results:
Senate: Ruud (R) 53.9-56.0*
House A: Ward (D) 57.0-42.9
House B: Radinovich (D) 50.7-49.2*

District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). Incumbent DFLer Tony Lourey easily won reelection. On the House side, there were two open seats. Democrats Mike Sundin, and former Rep. Tim Faust won both of them.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D*
House B: Lean D*

Results:
Senate: Lourey (D) 64.2-35.6
House A: Sundin (D) 63.9-30.0*
House B: Faust (D) 51.2-48.6*

District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson Country. On the senate side, GOP Rep. Torrey Westrom is now going to be Senator Westrom. On the House side in 12A, Elbow Lake mayor Jay McNamar (DFL) is edged out Brandon City Councilman Scott Dutcher to replace Westrom in the House. Dutcher may seak a recount, but he trails by over 250 votes, which is hard to envisioning being reversed. 12B is much much much more Republican than 12A, and Paul Anderson hasn't done anything to upset voters.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R*
House A: Tilt D*
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Westrom (R) 61.5-38.4*
House A: McNamar (D) 47.5-47.3*
House B: Anderson (R) 66.3-33.6

District 13: This is more Republican farm country surrounding St. Cloud. Soon-to-be-former Senate President Michelle Fischbach won easily. DFL representative Larry Hosch desided to retire at age 34, likely to rev up for a run at MN-7 when Peterson retires in 2014 or 2016. Republican Jeff Howe easily won election to replace him.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Likely R*
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Fischbach (R) 63.5-36.3
House A: Howe (R) 59.1-40.8*
House B: O'Driscoll (R) 60.2-39.6

District 14: Republicans are not pleased with this. Republicans pray and pray that St. Cloud will be diluted among the local Republican areas. That didn't happen, and as I suspected, it cost them a seat in 14B, as King Banaian could not hold on in the St. Cloud proper district.  In 14A, Steven Gottwalt (GOP) proved his muscle as an incumbent and survived. In the senate, John Peterson didn't really get a strong challenger and showed that he really is a weak incumbent, and I expect he will face a much stronger challenger in 2014.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Tilt D*

Results:
Senate: Pederseon (R) 52.5-47.3
House A: Gottwalt (R) 53.9-45.8
House B: Dorholt (D) 56.2-43.5*

District 15: This is a Republican area northwest of the Twin Cities metro area., and the DFL didn't put up any strong candidates. Incumbents Brown and O'Neill, as well as newcomer Newberger, all won by fairly underwhelming margins, if you ask me. Perhaps one of them will be vulnerable through the decade? I dunno.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R*

Results:
Senate: Brown (R) 56.6-43.3
House A: Erickson (R) 52.4-47.6
House B: Newberger (R) 57.8-42.1*

District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River district. Long ago former Senator Ted Suss came up short in his comeback effort against freshman Gary Dahms. The DFL didn't put up any strong candidates for either House seat, so incumbent Republicans Chris Swedzinski and Paul Torkelson won by fairly comfortable margins.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Dahms (R) 53.0-46.9
House A: Swedzinski (R) 56.7-43.1
House B: Torkelson (R) 56.1-32.3

District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is where my accurate projection streak stops. I had the senate race as tilt R, but Lyle Koenen (D) actually won comfortably. No one is perfect, I guess. 29 year-old 2-term incumbent rep. Andrew Falk (D) won reelection in 17A. In 17B, teacher Mary Sawatzky (D) won her first term in St. Paul by a surprising margin, although I did predict her winning.

Projected:
Senate: Tilt R
House A: Likely D
House B: Tilt D*

Results:
Senate: Koenen (D) 55.4-44.5
House A: Falk (D) 53.9-46.0
House B: Sawatzky (D) 48.3-44.1*

District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields in Meeker, McLeod, and Sibley Counties. This is prime Republican territory. Republican Representatives Dean Urdahl and Glenn Gruenhagen as well as Senator Scott Newman won easily.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Newman (R) 58.2-41.7
House A: Urdahl (R) 58.3-41.6
House B: Gruenhagen (R) 58.0-41.8

District 19: This is Mankato and the surrounding areas, and it is quite liberal for an outstate district. Republicans didn't even put up candidates against Senator Sheran or Representative Morrow, and didn't seriously contest Brynaert's district either.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A:  Safe D
House B:  Safe D

Results:
Senate: Sheran (D) Unopposed
House A:  Morrow (D) Unopposed
House B:  Brynaert (D) 63.9-35.8

District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung Republican exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland. It is based around the corner of Rice and Scott Counties, as well as all of LeSeur County. Former Senator Kevin Dahle (D) has a 78 vote lead over former FBI agent Mike Dudley. I believe this will go to recount, but when counting 40,000 votes, I don't see a 78 vote lead being overcome. Former Representative David Bly (D) won his seat back in 20B, and Kelby Woodard (R) got another term in 20A.

Projected:
Senate: Tilt D*
House A:  Likely R
House B: Likely D*

Results:
Senate: Dahle (D) 50.0-49.8*
House A: Woodard (R) 54.5-45.4
House B: Bly (D) 56.9-43.0*

District 21: This is very marginal Republican territory overall. The DFL really didn't get any great candidates here, but still managed to unseat Senator John Howe, much to my surprise. The incumbent GOP Representatives both survived.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely R

Results:
Senate: Schmit (D) 52.4-47.4*
House A: Kelly (R) 57.5-42.4
House B: DRazkowski (R) 58.0-41.9

District 22: This is old school DFL farmer territory in the SW corner of the state. The area has shifted intensely the other direction though. All Three Republicans won.

Projected:
Senate: Lean R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Weber (R) 52.8-47.1*
House A: Schoemacker (R) 59.0-40.9
House B: Hamilton (R) 60.1-39.9

District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. This is one of the most Republican areas in outstate Minnesota up and down the ballot. All three Republicans won. Cornish is the only Republican in outstate Minnesota to run unopposed.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:

Senate: Rosen (R) 64.0-35.9
House A: Gunther (R) 56.4-43.5
House B: Cornish (R) Unopposed

District 24: This is Owatanna and the immediate area around it.  In 24A, there are two candidates that I know next to nothing about. DFLer Vicki Jensen picked up the senate seat. Republican John Petersberg won the open 24A, meanwhile incumbent Patti Fritz (D) continued her winning streak by unimpressive margins over in 24B

Projected:
Senate: Tilt D*
House A:  Tilt R*
House B: Lean D

Results:
Senate: Jensen (D) 52.6-47.2*
House A:  Petersburg (R) 52.2-47.6*
House B: Fritz (D) 56.7-43.2

Districts 25 and 26. These two districts together make up the Rochester area. In spite of a lot of fanfare and campaigns, all 6 incumbents won. Much ado about nothing, I guess. I picked 5 incumbents to hold on, but I got Benson's race wrong.

Projected:
Senate 25: Likely R
Senate 26: Tilt R
House 25A: Lean R
House 25B: Likely D
House 26A: Likely D
House 26B: Lean D*

Results:
Senate 25: Senjem (R) 53.7-46.1
Senate 26: Nelson (R) 55.6-44.2
House 25A: Quam (R) 54.6-45.3
House 25B: Norton (D) 57.5-42.3
House 26A: Liebling (D) 58.8-41.0
House 26B: Benson (R) 57.1-42.7

Districts 27. This is part of the Southeastern Minnesota DFL area of strength. The incumbent Democrats won easily, and freshman Republican Rich Murray just couldn't hold on to such a Democratic district for more than 1 term.

Projected:
Senate:  Safe D  
House A: Tilt D*
House B: Likely D

Results:
Senate:  Sparks (D) 68.2-31.7
House A: Savick (D) 47.7-44.5*
House B: Poppe 62.8-37.1

District 28: this is the more marginal part of the southern Minnesota DFL area. The Republicans here proved to be more resilient than their counterpart one district to the west.

Projected:
Senate: Lean D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Tilt R

Results:
Senate: Miller (R) 57.1-42.7
House A: Pelowski (D) 66.7-33.1
House B: Davids (58.2-41.4)

District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs around Buffalo. This is one of the most Republican districts in the state. These districts likely won't be challenged at all. Bruce Anderson (R) got a promotion to the upper chamber.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean R*

Results:
Senate: Anderson (R) 60.6-39.3*
House A: McDonald (R) 61.9-37.9
House B: O'Neil (R) 50.2-42.3*

District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican, just change Bullalo to St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Current State Rep. (and former SoS before being dispelled by Mark Ritchie) Mary Kiffmeyer got a promotion is the only thing of note here.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R*  
House A: Safe R*
House B: Safe R*

Results:
Senate: Kiffmeyer (R) 62.4-37.5*  
House A: Zerwas (R) 63.7-36.2*
House B: Fitzsimmons (R) 61.8-38.0*

District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. The three Republican incumbents won handily.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Benson (R) 58.6-41.2
House A: Daudt (R) 60.4-39.4
House B: Hackbarth (R) 60.8-39.0

District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties. Wildly Republican up ballot, but down ballot there is still a tiny glow of hope for the DFL. There were a lot of musical chairs being played in this district, but when the dust settled, all three Republicans won, although former legislator Rick Olseen came very close to winning the Chisago County house district.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R*
House B: Tilt D*

Results:
Senate: Nienow (R) 54.3-45.6
House A: Johnson (R) 51.4-44.1*
House B: Barrett (R) 49-50.9

District 33. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. This is where you saw some Republican legislators go down to tea party challenges. Cindy Pugh is the only Republican who could conceivably lose 33B, but she managed to pull off a high-single digits win. Generic R should get 65% on the B side.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R*
House A: Safe R*
House B: Likely R*

Results:
Senate: Osmek (R) 58.9-40.9*
House A: Johnson (R) 51.4-44.1*
House B: Pugh (R) 54.4-45.5*

District 34: Maple Grove. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove is the place Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide. Current speaker, Kurt Zellers, represents 34B and won reelection, but will likely resign early next year.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Limmer (R) 57.0-42.8
House A: Peppin (R) 64.2-35.7
House B: Zellers (R) 54.5-45.4

District 35: West-Central Anoka County. Tea Party Wunderkind Branden Petersen got a promotion at the ripe old age of 26, but he did so by underperforming in the district. 14-year Republican incumbent Jim Abler easily won again in 35A, and 2-term Republican incumbent Peggy Scott beat Sam Scott (no Relation) in 35B.

Projected:
Senate: Tilt R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Peterson (R) 54.2-45.6*
House A: Abeler (R) 58.7-33.3
House B: Scott (R) 59.1-40.8

District 36: This is DFL area along the river in the NW suburbs. As I suspected, Ben Kruse couldn't catch lightning in a bottle twice in the senate race here. In the House, DFLer Denise Dittrich is hanging it up after 4 terms, and Republican Champlain mayor Mark Uglem won the contested race to replace her in 36A. In 36B, DFLer Mellissa Hortman won a 4th term.

Projected:
Senate: Likely D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Likely D

Results:
Senate: Hoffman (D) 53.1-46.7*
House A: Uglem (R) 51.0-48.9*
House B: Hortman (D) 55.2-40.5

District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park. Blaine leans Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold, and Spring Lake Park is a center-left suburb that swings violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state. In the senate freshman Republican Pam Wolf lost to Alice Johnson. 37A is the more DFL friendly of the two House districts, and 75-year old former State Representative Jerry Newton came out of retirement and beat Republican Senate Staffer Mandy Benz. In the more Republican 37B, Tim Sanders proved he is a strong incumbent by winning again.

Projected:
Senate: Likely D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Johnson (D) 53.2-46.6*
House A: Newton (D) 57.2-42.6*
House B: Sanders (R) 53.9-45.9

District 38: These are the suburban exurbs north of St. Paul around the corner of Ankoa, Ramsey and Washington Counties. The three Republican incumbents won fairly easily.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Chamberlin (R) 53.2-46.6
House A: Runbeck (R) 58-41.9
House B: Dean (R) 52.3-47.5

District 39: Northeastern Washington County. The Southern half is dominated by Blue Stillwater, with the northern half of the district dominated by Red Forest Lake. I am actually surprised, and personally disappointed that Democrat Julie Bunn lost this district by 400 votes, as Democrats lost all three of these races in a very marginal swingy area.

Projected:
Senate: Lean D*
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean D*

Results:
Senate: Housley (R) 50.6-49.3*
House A: Dettmer (R) 57.4-42.5
House B: Lohmer (R) 53.0-46.9

District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. Eaten and Nelson didn't even get opponents.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D*
House B: Safe D

Results:
Senate: Eaton (D) Unopposed*
House A: Nelson (D) Unopposed
House B: Hilstrom (D) 71.2-28.5

District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some of the bluest inner ring suburbs you're going to find. In 41B, Tim Utz, the 2010 Republican nominee ran on the Constitution line and got about half the vote of the Republican in the race.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D*
House B: Safe D

Results:
Senate: Goodwin (D) 62.8-37.0
House A: Bernardy (D) 61.7-38.2*
House B: Laine (D) 58.5-27.8-13.6

District 42: Ramsey County that's marginally DFL area in the north and strong DFL area is the south. DFL Rep Bev Scalze got a promotion, and in the House, two college professors got the wins, in a district with 3 incoming freshmen.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D*
House B: Safe D

Results:

Senate: Scalze (D) 55.6-44.3*
House A: Yarusso (D) 53.3-46.6*
House B: Isaacson (D) 57.7-42.3*

District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district 42, in the fact that 43A in the north is marginally DFL, and 43B is strongly DFL with the senate seat a combination thereof. Similar results as well, with three Democratic victories.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Tilt D*
House B: Safe D

Results:
Senate: Wiger (D) 62.3-37.5
House A: Fischer (D) 52.7-47.1*
House B: Lillie (D) 60.4-39.4

District 44: This is rich suburbs (but not really exurbs) in Hennepin County. Plymouth is a Republican stronghold. And Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city. Norminally Republicans should win this area. But DFL senator Terri Bonoff (who has been courted repeatedly to take on Erik Paulsen in MN-3) has been the senator here since 2005. Senator Bonoff beat former Pawlenty chief of staff Tim Gaither. 44A is the Republican part of this district, and Sarah Anderson won reelection narrowly, and I feel I overestimated her strength in my projections. In 44B, DFLer John Benson won his 4th term with a little more cushion.

Projeced:
Senate: Likely D
House A: Safe R
House B: Likely D

Results:
Senate: Bonoff (D) 55.8-44.0
House A: Anderson (R) 51.2-48.7
House B: Benson (D) 55.8-44.0

District 45: Cystal and New Hope. These are more working class inner suburbs. No real news in the safe DFL seats

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

Results:
Senate: Rest (D) 65.5-34.4
House A: Carlson (D) 59.6-40.3
House B: Freiberg (D) 66.0-33.9*

District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. This is a very liberal upper-middle class area.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Results:
Senate: Latz (D) 66.8-33.0
House A: Winkler (D) 65.9-34.0
House B: Simon (D) 70.0-29.8

District 47: Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. Julieanne Ortman is here, and may be first in line to be Minority leader in January.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Ortman (R) 63.8-36.0
House A: Leidig (R) 62.5-37.3
House B: Hoppe (R) Unopposed

District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen's stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: : Lean D*
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Hann (R) 51.3-48.6
House A: Selcer (D) 50.3-49.5*
House B: Loon (R) 58.9-50.3

District 49: This is Edina and western Bloomington. More money was spent on this race than in the 5th CONGRESSIONAL district race. Republicans and conservative groups wanted Tea-flavored representative Keith Downey in the senate in a center-left district. He didn't win, and Democrats actually picked up his house seat in the process.

Projected:
Senate: Tilt R*
House A: Lean D*
House B: Likely D*

Results:
Senate: Franzen (D) 52.7-47.2*
House A: Erhardt (D) 55.8-44.1*
House B: Rosenthal (D) 53.3-46.6*

District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. Democrats romped all around here.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D*
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Results:

Senate: Wiklund (D) 60.9-39.0*
House A: Slocum (D) 62.2-30.3
House B: Lenczweski (D) 65.3-34.6

District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory, and they will be competitive for the foreseeable future. But for this cycle, it was a Democratic sweep.

Projected:
Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean D*
House B: Tilt R

Results:
Senate: Carlson (D) 53.1-46.7*
House A: Masin (D) 55.5-44.3*
House B: Halverson (D) 51.9-48.0*

District 52: This is the quite liberal parts of northern Dakota County.

Projected:
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Results:
Senate: Mtezen (D) 62.0-37.8
House A: Hansen (D) 62.5-37.4
House B: Atkins (D) 66.0-33.9

District 53: Woodbury and Maplewood. These are moderate suburbs to the east of St. Paul.

Projected:
Senate: Lean D*
House A: Safe D*
House B: Lean R

Results:
Senate: Kent (D) 52.1-47.7*
House A: Ward (D) 56.2-43.7*
House B: Keiffer (R) 54.9-45.0

District 54: This is essentially Southern Washington County along the Wisconsin border. It's marginal, but somewhat Republican leaning.

Projected:
Senate: Likely D
House A: Lean D*
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Sieben (D) 63.8-36.1
House A: Schoen (D) 54.8-38.0*
House B: McNamara (R) 57.4-42.4

District 55: Scott County. This is Republican territory to the core.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R*

Results:
Senate: Pratt (R) 55.1-44.8*
House A: Beard (R) 54.6-45
House B: Albright (R) 63.4-36.5*

District 56: This is swingy Burnsville to the east and marginally Republican Savage to the west. Some locals kind of shook their head when I projected a Peterson win. Looks like I got the last laugh here.

Projected:
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Tilt D*

Results:
Senate: D. Hall (R) 53.9-45.9
House A: Myhra (R) 53.9-45.9
House B: Peterson (D)* 50.3-49.5

District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. Pat Hall, the brother of Senator Dan Hall in the neighboring 56th, tried to run here, but lost to former Apple Valley principal Greg Clausen.

Projected:
Senate: Tilt D*
House A: Safe R
House B: Tilt R*

Results:
Senate: Clausen (D) 54.1-45.7*
House A: Mack (R) 53.4-46.5
House B: Wills (R) 53.2-46.7*

District 58: This is Lakeville and southern Dakota County. It is Safe Republican territory.

Projected:
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Results:
Senate: Thompson 57.6-42.3
House A: Holberg (R) 59.1-40.8
House B: Garofalo (R) 59.5-40.4

Districts 59-67. These seats are all Minneapolis and St. Paul. I projected them all to be Safe DFL, and most of the races were 80-20, but some were in the 70-30 range.

OGGoldy :: Minnesota Elections Postmortem: OGGoldy's report card.
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