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Michigan State Rep results

by: Republican Michigander

Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 18:23:32 PM EST

I had my state rep preview diary here with a map and was going to post my results there, if it wasn't for the expiration of comments. I don't have good access to all the micro level data until the precincts are up at the Sec of State site. In shore, the Republicans keep control, although with a reduced margin.

Those that were close, I'll mention in detail. Some that are blowouts I'll just call as "Dem" or "Gop" - and mention the area.  

Republican Michigander :: Michigan State Rep results
HD-1 - Eight time convicted felon and current deadbeat Brian Banks won in this safe district. This is a 75% Obama (2008) district. It wasn't close. 70.77% for Banks. The GOP votes were from Grosse Pointes.

HD-2 through HD-10 - Dem, Detroit Based.

HD-11/12 - Dem, Wayne County

HD-13 - Dem 64.56%, GOP 35.44% - This was a downriver seat that was held to 53% back in 2010.

HD-14-16 - Dem, Wayne County

HD-17 (Open):
Bill LaVoy (D) - 61.32%
Anne Rossio (R) - 38.68%

I had HD-17 as lean dem. It has part of Downriver and most of the dem parts of Monroe County. It could be one to take a run at in a great year, but went 53% Kerry and 55% Obama (08). Not surprised at the result once I saw the funding.

HD-18 - Dem, Southern Macomb

HD-19 (R-incumbent)
John Walsh - 59.95%
Richard Tannous - 40.05%

This Livonia district is safe for Walsh, but could be competitive now that he's termed out.

HD-20 (R-incumbent)
Kurt Heise (R) - 56.06%
Tim Roraback (D) - 43.94%

This NW Wayne County district leans R on paper, but has been competitive. I had it as lean R.

HD-21 (D-incumbent)
Dian Slavens (D) - 61.60%
Joe Barnabei (R) - 38.40%

This was a seat I had as lean dem. Slavens survived 2010, and while this Canton based district dropped part of Van Buren Twp, it still had some of it. It was 57% Obama in 2008, and I think it may have close to that this year. I can't find Canton results for president yet, but I think we took a beating there again.

HD-22 - Dem, South Macomb.

HD-23 (R-incumbent)
Pat Sommerville (R) - 50.50%
Tom Boritzki (D) - 49.50%

This was a tossup district based far downriver in Wayne County, and Sommerville survived by 448 votes against a good opponent.

HD-24 (R-Incumbent)
Anthony Forlini (R) - 54.71%
Phillip Kurczewski (D) - 45.29%

I called this one lean due to Clinton Township. It was borderline safe, but Macomb County is tough to read at times.

HD-25 (Open)
Henry Yanez (D) - 51.43%
Sean Clark (R) - 48.57%

This was a tossup we lost by 1156 votes. It covers Eastern Sterling Heights and part of Warren. I thought we were going to take this one, but it didn't work out that way.

HD-26/27 - Dem, South Oakland

HD 28 - Dem, South Macomb

HD 29 - Dem, Pontiac/Auburn Hills

HD 30 - (r-incumbent)
Jeff Farrington (R) - 53.25%
Joseph Bogdan  (D) - 46.75%

This lean R district covers part of Sterling Heights, Utica, and part of Shelby Twp.

HD-31 (d-incumbent)
Marilyn Lane (D) - 61.75%
Lynn Evans (R) - 33.86%

This lean dem district was contested several times in the past, but has been democrat for a long time.

HD-32 (R-quasi incumbent)
Andrea LaFontaine (R) - 58.60%
Sheri Smith  (D) - 41.40%

This district I almost put as safe, but not when the dems had a similar district from 2008-2010 even as McCain won it, and the GOP had a real nasty primary for this district in both years.

HD-33 (R-incumbent)
Ken Goike (R) - 61.91%
Martha O'Kray (D) - 38.09%

This district leans R, but I didn't put it as safe because of Lenox Twp and Macomb's downticket traditions.

HD-34 - Dem, Flint

HD-35 - Dem, Southfield

HD-36 - GOP, NW Macomb

HD-37 - Dem - Farmington Hills

HD-38 - Safe, SW Oakland

HD-39 - Open
Klint Kesto (R) - 53.25%
Pam Jackson (D) - 46.75%

Big win for Klint Kesto when we struggled in Oakland County overall. This was a district I had as tossup/borderline lean with Wixom and part of West Bloomfield along with a 6 way primary.

HD-40 - Open
Michael McCready (R) - 56.99%
Dorian Coston (D) - 40.66%

On paper, this could be a tossup district, but is more R downticket, and the candidate matchup favored our side, so I had this as lean.

HD-41 - Open
Martin Howrylak (R) - 50.46%
Mary Kerwin (D) - 49.54%

This was a near upset ad 426 vote win. I said about the district awhile back.

HD-41 (open) - Oakland County 77.5% White, 15.5% Asian (mostly Indian) 50.4% Obama, 56.2% Bush (2party). 08 was a massacre in Clawson/Troy, but the state rep district here hasn't been competitive.  There is competition for the Clawson and Southern Troy commissioner district, but the rest of Troy offsets.  Lean R in an open seat.  I'd call it almost safe unless our candidate is a disaster. This district is treading blue however.

Well, that almost happened. Troy was close and Clawson went D. In Troy, the tea party was recalled, and the best chance for the libs ran for the state rep district. That made what was going to be a somewhat difficult defense, into a major one.

HD-42 - GOP - SE Livingston County

HD-43-46 - GOP, Outer Oakland

HD-47 - GOP - Livingston

HD-48-50 - Dem, Genesee County (I had HD50 as a dem lean, it wasn't close)

HD-51 (R-incumbent)
Joe Graves (R) - 54.33%
Steven Losey (D) - 45.67%

Graves won the old 51st (parts of Oakland and Genesee) with Paul Scott's recall. The new district is safer, but has a lot of conservadems so I had it as lean R.

HD-52 (R-Incumbent, Flipped)
Gretchen Driskell (D) - 53.02%
Mark Ouimet (R) - 46.98%

I want to take a closer look at this Western Washtenaw district and compare top of the ticket to this race. I had it as tossup if open, lean R for Ouimet with his nice guy reputation and win of a much tougher district. I was wrong. This seat is back to lean D and a redistricting blunder, because another seat was conceded to protect Outmet.

HD-53-55 - Dem, Washtenaw County. One of those was "incumbent R" who didn't run again opening it up, but a redistricting concession.  

HD-56 (Incumbent R)
Dale Zorn (R) - 57.64%
Larry Crider (D) - 42.36%

I had this at lean R due to the dems getting a similar district from 2004-2010. There's a strong conservadem tradition in rural Monroe County, although this part of the county is moving to the right.

HD-57 (incumbent R)
Nancy Jenkins (R) - 52.50%
Jim Berryman (D) 47-50%

I had this at lean R as the dems held this district for 12 years before Jenkins held it. Berryman is a former state senator who held a Lenawee/Monroe district.

HD-58 - GOP, Hillsdale

HD-59 (incumbent R)
Matt Lori (R) - 62.28%
Mike Moroz (D) - 37.72%

I had this SW MI district as lean/almost safe because I was a little concerned with Dowagiac added.

HD-60 - Dem, Kalamazoo

HD-61 - (Incumbent R)
Margaret O'Brien (R) - 58.25%
Michael Martin (D) - 41.75%

This suburban Kalamazoo district has often been close. O'Brien runs well here. I had it as lean R.

HD-62 - (Incumbent D)
Kate Segal (D) - 57.63%
Mark Behnke (R) - 42.37%

This district I had as lean D, almost safe. The Republican running was former Battle Creek mayor, so I thought there was a shot. This was conceded to shore up Jase Bolger in the 63rd. Any district with Battle Creek, Bedford Twp, Springfield, and Albion together is going to lean D at best, and be safe D at worst.

HD-63 - (Incumbent R)
Jase Bolger (R) - 50.87%
Bill Farmer (D) - 49.13%

This was supposed to be a safe R district with rural Calhoun and rural Kalamazoo Counties. It wasn't because Bolger (Speaker of the House) was caught up in the Roy Schmidt party switch scandal which was if not illegal, a shady move. Frankly, he deserved to lose. Hopefully he learned from this.

HD-64 - (Incumbent R)
Earl Poleski (R) - 56.21%
Barbara Shelton (D) - 43.79%

Big win in Jackson County's battle of the strongholds. The City of Jackson vs Spring Arbor and Summit Townships. This district flipped twice in the last decade and is a true swing district.

HD-65 - (Incumbent R)
Mike Shirkey (R) - 56.81%
Bonnie Johnson (D) - 43.19%

Another big win in a swing district which has flipped. Many conservadems and social conservative independents are in this district that covers rural Jackson, the Eaton Rapids area, and Cambridge Twp in Lenawee County.

HD-66 - (Incumbent R)
Aric Nesbitt (R) - 58.55%
Richard Rajkovich (D) - 41.45%

This Van Buren County district is a tossup on paper, but leans R downticket. It hasn't been competitive yet, but neither was Eaton County's district......

HD-67 (Open)
Tom Cochran (D) - 56.37%
Jeff Osterle (R) - 43.63%

We got walloped in Ingham County this year. I have to see how well/bad we did in rural Ingham. This also has part of South Lansing which makes it a tossup in a good year. I had it as tossup open, but we've never won it, partly due to the Byrums. Osterle came close in 2010.

HD-68-69 - Dem,  Ingham County

HD-70 - Incumbent R
Rick Outman (R) -  54.46%
Mike Huckleberry (D) - 45.54%

Huckleberry won in 2008 and almost hung on in 2010. 3rd time wasn't the charm in this normally lean R, but swing with Huckleberry district covering Montcalm and part of Gratiot Counties.

HD-71 - Incumbent R
Theresa Abed (D) - 53.43%
Deb Shaughnessy (R) - 46.57%

This one caught me by surprise. I had it as lean R. Tossup on paper, but not after the results with the same people in 2010. Still, government unions are strong here. I said this about the district.

HD-71 (Deb Shaughnessy) - Most of Eaton County. 83.6% White, 53.9% Obama. Lean R. Shaughnessy had no problem with this district, like her predecessors Rick Jones and Sue Tabor. It's a swing district on paper as Eaton County voted for Bush twice, Granholm twice, and Obama, but the state rep district has never been close. A small part of Lansing is in this district, and that's the most dem part of the city. Eaton Twp has been dropped making this harder. I'm keeping an eye on this one.

HD72-74 - GOP Rural and Suburban Kent County.

HD75 - Dem, Grand Rapids

HD76 - Incumbent Dem/RINO
Roy Schmidt (D/R) - 31.01%
Winnie Banks (D) - 59.30%

This was a cluster in Grand Rapids. Originally, Schmidt, a dem incumbent, ran as a dem. At the filing deadline, he switched parties, and a "dem" candidate recruited by Schmidt ran. He dropped, and it was a big scandal. Schmidt nearly lost to a write-in in the primary. Bolger was tied to this and it almost cost his seat as well. Needless to say, what was supposed to be a tossup turned into a safe d seat, at least this year.

HD 77 - GOP, Kent County

HD 78 - Open
Dave Pagel (R) - 61.43%
Jack Arbanas (D) - 38.57%

This is a district that I called lean R, although it was almost safe. There was close calls in this Berrien/Cass based district in the past.

HD79 - Incumbent R
Al Pscholka (R) - 52.77%
Jim Hahn (D) - 45.72%

This is a battle of the turnout districts in Berrien County. Most of this district is an R stronghold. Then there is Benton Harbor and Benton Township, which are black majority major d strongholds. Benton Harbor is over 95% Democrat.

HD80 - Gop, Allegan County

HD81 - Open R
Dan Lauwers (R) - 53.84%
Patrick Phelan (D) - 46.16%

This rural St Clair County district has been competitive in the past, although leans R.

HD82 - GOP, Lapeer county

HD83 - incumbent R
Paul Muxlow - 55.61%
Carol Campbell - 44.39%

Leans R, but the dems had it in the past.

HD84 - Incumbent R lost in primary, open
Terry Brown (D) - 52.61%
Dan Grimshaw (R) - 38.16%

This district was a swing district due to Brown who was a popular two term state rep lost in the 2010 wave. The incumbent was going down no question, and lost in the primary. 3rd parties took almost 9% here. I had this district as a tossup.

HD85 - Incumbent R
Ben Glardon (R) - 53.59%
Paul Ray (D) - 39.93%

I had this as a tossup due to historically close races in Shiawassee County, but probably should have had it as lean R.

HD86 - GOP, Kent/Ionia

HD87 - GOP, Barry/Ionia

HD88-90 - GOP, Ottawa County

HD91 - Incumbent R
Collene Lamonte (D) - 48.10%
Holly Hughes (R) - 47.27%

This tossup district in suburban Muskegon County unfortunately flipped again, like it did twice in the last decade.

HD92 - Dem, Muskegon

HD93 - Open R
Tom Leonard (R) - 56.61%
Paul Silva (D) - 43.39%

This Clinton County based district was once a GOP stronghold, but is now more competitive. Big win for Tom Leonard, especially after what happened in Eaton County.

HD94 - Open R
Tim Kelly (R) - 56%
Judith Lincoln (D) - 44%

This rural/suburban district has steadily trended away from the democrats. I'm almost ready to put this formerly conservadem area as safe R. We've had this seat or a similar one for over 20 years now.

HD95 - Dem, Saginaw

HD96 - Dem, Bay City

HD97 - Incumbent R
Joel Johnson (R) - 61.82%
Chris Breznau (D) - 38.18%

This historically conservadem area went big for Johnson and (somewhat surprisingly) Romney. Obama did well in these areas in 2008, but not this year. The dems had this district in 2002-2004, but not since due to social issues.

HD98 - GOP, Midland

HD99 - Incumbent R
Kevin Cotter (R) - 57.40%
Adam Lawrence (D) - 42.60%

This district is competitive, but lean R for Cotter who is strong. It's a tossup if it opens though as Isabella County and Mt Pleasant are becoming more and more democrat with CMU.

HD100 - GOP, Rural NW MI

HD101 - Incumbent R
Ray Franz (R) - 51.04%
Allen O'Shea (D) - 48.96%

This tossup on the Lake Michigan Coast was that once again. The dems won it in 08 and lost it in 2010. Obama won all of the areas in 08. This year, it was only Manistee County. That made the difference.

HD102 - GOP, North Central MI.

HD103 - Incumbent R
Bruce Rendon (R) - 52.90%
Lon Johnson (D) - 47.10%

This historically conservadem Northern Michigan district was close, but Rendon survived even with Johnson overperforming Obama. Redistricting helped some, although Johnson won one of the new areas. This will continue to be a tough district for years.

HD104 - GOP - Traverse County

HD105 - GOP - NW/N Central MI

HD106 - incumbent R
Peter Pettalia (R) - 52.22%
Kenneth Hubbard (D) - 45.28%

Very impressive defense in this tossup district that was until 2010, democrat for 20 years. Redistricting made this worse in this Alpena/Presque Isle district, but Pettalia still won.

HD107 - Incumbent R
Frank Foster (R) - 58.03%
Suzanne Shumway (D) - 41.97%

This is the most R friendly district based in the UP (also has part of Northern Lower), but the dems are still competitive here as this was Gary McDowell's district. I had it as lean R.

HD108 - Incumbent R
Ed McBroom (R) - 54.56%
Sharon Gray (D) - 45.44%

This is the "Green Bay" district in the UP. It's an erratic district that I had as lean R, but certainly isn't safe. It's flipped twice in the last decade. Dickinson County made a big right turn lately. McBroom won all counties however this year.

HD109 - Dem, Marquette County based.

HD110 - Incumbent R
Scott Dianda (D) - 51.42%
Matt Huuki (R) - 48.58%

This district is historically democrat and returned to its roots. While Romney took all except two counties that were in this district (Gogebic and small part of Marquette), Dianda took four of them. That made the difference. I had this district as tossup, but I'm not that surprised with this.

It was rough overall, but not what I'd expect from a 9pt top of the ticket loss. The majority is intact, and we still have 2 1/2 houses of government in Michigan. (Snyder being the  1/2.....and I'm being generous with that)

I don't think gerrymandering helped us as much as the dems self-packing.  

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Great job!

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


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