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Palm Beach County

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 15:53:49 PM EST


One county I've been particularly interested in has been Palm Beach County, Florida. It has gotten redder over the last several years and I was curious if that'd continue.  
Left Coast Libertarian :: Palm Beach County
Here are the PVIs of Palm Beach for statewide office. PVI here is county/state.

Attorney General
2006: D+16
2010: D+12

Agriculture commissioner
2006: D+15
2010: D+8

CFO
2006: D+12
2010: D+6

Governor
2006: D+15
2010: D+10

We saw the same thing with the President. PVI here is county/national, but also county/state just to go apples and apples.

President (county/national)
2004: D+12
2008: D+8

President (county/state)
2004: D+13
2008: D+10

And now with 2012

President (county/national)
2004: D+12
2008: D+8
2012: D+7

President (county/state)
2004: D+13
2008: D+10
2012: D+8

So there was some movement, but not nearly as much as 2004 to 2008. I don't know the final Romney-Obama numbers but I'd guess that FL-18 and FL-22, which were E and D+4 in 2008 were more Republican this time around. I think this shows Republicans made a major mistake. In their effort to save Allen West they drew an FL-22 that clearly didn't comply with Fair Districts.

Republicans lost that district and lost FL-18 also, mostly because they drew it into St. Lucie County. If they do a redraw I think there's a compact Palm Beach/Martin County district that a Republican will win.  

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Palm Beach County | 11 comments
no, they lost FL-18 because of Allen West
Romney got 61% in Martin, West got 56%. There's your margin.

28, R, PA-07.

FL-18: Draft Pat Rooney for Congress!
The GOP lost it because the candidate is Allen West. The GOP should have ran a moderate candidate or at least, a candidate who is popular in the area. In 2014, we need to run at least one of the legislators in the district: state Reps. MaryLynn Magar, Gayle Harrell, and Pat Rooney.

Among the 3, Harrell and Rooney have the greater name recognition. The NRCC should convince state Rep. Pat Rooney, Rep. Tom Rooney's older brother, to run. He will be 50 in 2014. OTOH, Harrell is too old to run for Congress. She will turn 71 in 2014.  


[ Parent ]
FL-18: State Sen. Joe Negron, who is also popular in the district,
won't surely run. He is currently running for the 2016 Florida Senate President position against State Sen. Jack Latvala. Negron is considered the frontrunner.  

[ Parent ]
2012 PVI looks like D+7.5
So no real change

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


Two Party Numbers
In 2008, McCain got 46.3% nationally and 38.3% in Palm Beach County, D+8.0. In 2012, Romney right now has 48.5% nationally and 41.6% in Palm Beach County, D+6.9.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Different methods I guess
2008: D+7.8
2012: D+7.5

By the method I use

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
There's one method for Cook PVI
Cook determined it was local two party minus national two party and that's the formula I used. If you don't use two party you can end up with one result with a much lower total vote percentage than the other.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that should be the standard
anything else has the potential to be super-misleading.


[ Parent ]
I get you
You mean how you could show Romney didn't improve over McCain when he did?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Right, in this case.
In the other direction, it'd show that Obama collapsed in New Mexico, when that was really just that Gary Johnson got 3% of the vote.  

[ Parent ]
the way I do it is
compare each candidate to their national total and then average it.  This makes up for third parties too.

For example, if Obama had won 55-44 nationally and won KY 61.2-36.4 (this is all ludicrous on purpose), the PVI would be D+6.9.  By Cook PVI it would be D+7.1

It's not quite as accurate/correct, but it's easier math and never off by more than a couple tenths of a point.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Palm Beach County | 11 comments
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