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Political Roundup for November 16, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:32:03 AM EST


President
RGA: Mitt Romney took the brunt of the blame for the Republican failures in 2012 at the RGA meeting in Las Vegas.  Common themes were Romney's inability to connect with voters and waiting to the last minute to define himself well after Obama tried to define him.  I think they are missing the point of 2012:  Republicans have unrealistic expectations of their candidates and are too willing to stay home if they are not perfect.

Jindal: Governor Bobby Jindal has rejected Mitt Romney's gifts theory for why he lost the presidential election.  Romney has stated to donors he thought Obama won the election by giving handouts to women, young voters, and minorities.  Jindal has attacked this and says Republicans need to quit dividing people.  Someone needs to inform Jindal we have entered a new era of identity politics where giving out gifts to interest groups is the means of getting elected.

Congress
PA-12: PoliticsPA has a good look at how Rothfus won and what the impacts will be southwestern Pennsylvania and future Democratic prospects.  What is amazing is how badly Obama performed in the district, but Critz was able to keep it close.

NJ-10: Donald Payne Jr. has taken his seat in Congres replacing his late father for the Newark centered seat.  Payne also won the full two year term starting in January.

CA-7: Ami Bera has defeated Dan Lungren to represent California's 7th District.  Bera has over a 5000 vote lead, which has grown substantially since election day where he held a lead of less than 200 votes.  

UT-4: How did Jim Matheson win in Utah-4?  It appears Matheson's approval ratings never dipped as he marketed his own personal brand and Mia Love never connected with voters due to her rising national stardom.

TN-4: The festering Scott DesJarlais scandal has Tennessee Republicans silent, but speculation is rife what would happen if a resignation occurred.

FL-18: Allen West might be battling into the next year with Patrick Murphy over who won the 18th District.

States
PA-Governor:  Two more candidates are interested in challenging Tom Corbett for reelection.  Former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf is looking at running for the Democratic nomination.  Of greater interest, Republican superdonor and businessman Scott Wagner is looking at challenging Corbett from the right in the Republican primary.

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for November 16, 2012
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I wouldn't say the "gifts" thing is in any way "new"
Enacting policies that favor groups that elected you is as old as politics. Romney's phrasing was a bit odd though, which is why the remark was criticized.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

Romney, Jindal
I thought Romney ran a solid campaign. Not brilliant, not masterful, but solid. His worst gaffe was spoken to a private audience that was secretly recorded and used against him months later. I don't blame him for that, especially since the core of his comment was actually true.

Jindal is harping on the fact that the "gifts"/"47%" memes make it sound as if voters are being bribed for their support (old saying: if the shoe fits...). I agree there are smart ways to get that point across and not-so-smart ways. But publicly blaming Romney at this point is something I don't agree with. First of all, because I genuinely believe he doesn't deserve to be blamed; second of all because I don't see how it helps Jindal or the GOP to do so, going forward.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


[ Parent ]
Disagree
I don't think Romney ran a solid campaign. When you let your opponent define you and don't respond on TV for months, and when you base your entire campaign around the idea that the incumbent is incompetent, you are not running a solid campaign. I think the biggest message learned was that running against an incumbent president without clearly defining yourself as an alternative does not work.

[ Parent ]
Romney
To be fair to Governor Romney, he had ZERO money coming out of the primary and Obama had figured he was going to be the nominee for months before the primary season ended. Obama had a much easier time defining Romney early because Romney's campaign was flat broke, and Obama's coffers were quite full at the time.

I said it before the election, and I stand by it now: Romney's biggest sin in the campaign was shuttering the doors of his campaign offices around the country after the states had their respective caucuses. Obama in 08 never closed a primary campaign office, and in 2012 he reopened his old operations seamlessly early. Romney was all about moving from one state to the next to the next to conserve money, which cost him dearly in terms of boots on the ground organization.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Romney
I wonder if he thought about dipping into his own pocket coming out of the primary to respond to the Obama campaign?  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I could agree with that
In the places where you saw Ron Paul do the best (Maine, Minnesota, Iowa), the campaign operation essentially melted into the local grassroots activist network. Paul did not do as well where operatives were shuttled in a few weeks before a given caucus or primary. Campaigns still matter, and OFA's network of offices gave a tangible base from which local organizing could build for activists.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Walker, Ayotte, Jindal, Martinez, and Christie
Have all criticized the gifts comment, which says a lot about how the future leadership of the GOP sees the electoral value of those comments.

Romney should move on, acknowledge that Obama's message beat his, and keep us out of any negative headlines.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
romney
Said exactly what I feel. Young people today just want, want, want and are lazy.

[ Parent ]
VA-Gov/Sen
I have a hard time imagining Warner running for Governor again, not matter what his intentions are for 2016. He'll piss off a lot of people in Washington if he leaves the Senate, but for pissing on McAuliffe's shoes and for making the DSCC work to keep his seat (it is fun to contemplate who he's appoint to replace him - I'm sure Periello is daily kos early favorite).

Personally I hope he does run, he's about the best a GOPer could ever hope for from a Dem governor here, and opening up a legit Senate seat target for 2014 is just to delicious...especially since I'm damn sure McDonnell would run vs an appointed Senator (no matter what happens with Cooch/Bolling)

Marco Rubio 2016, please


VA state senate
Are there any pickup opportunities so we don't lose the chamber due to 20-20 tie? I know there is 1 dinosaur Dem in coal country but I'm not sure if he is up.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Senate not up till '15
Just State House and Executive offices up in '13...

Marco Rubio 2016, please

[ Parent ]
Here are the
districts that are in play:

GOP side:  all incumbents are relatively safe

Dem side:

1:  John Miller is very vulnerable, but recruiting is going to be an issue here
6:  Ralph Northam is a strong incumbent, and if he runs for statewide office, we can pick up that seat
21:  John Edwards is possibly vulnerable with a very good recruit
29:  Chuck Colgan is 86 years old and when he retires, we can pick up his seat.  It would start as a tossup.
33:  Herring is rumored to run for AG, and if he wins, we would need a better recruit than Pat Phillips
37:  Marsden was made safer in redistricting, but could be vulnerable in the right circumstances
38:  Puckett is the dinosaur you mentioned earlier in coal country.  
39:  George "Lincoln" Barker, the guy who started using his famous middle name in the last cycle, is a very weak incumbent

If we can run good candidates in the north, we should be able to pick off a few seats.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY


[ Parent ]
VA-SEN?
So the Democrats made a map they cannot win?  I thought Democrats could somewhat decently get to 22-24 in a non wave cycle?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
ah i found the old link
http://www.vpap.org/updates/re...

17 and 20 are the 2 districts they lost in 2011. Not coincidentally they are the 2 most Republican Dem held (as of 2010) districts they drew, besides Dinosaur Puckett.

Lots of districts over 60% McDonnell.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Wow
I knew they compromised, but I didn't realize it was that bad.  R's got a lock on the other house and D's only got a toss up at best.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
With VRA and self-packing...
They can't really do much better without the trifecta.  

[ Parent ]
more PA maps
Kathleen Kane vs Tom Corbett

http://www.politicspa.com/map-...

Obama 2012 vs Obama 2008 vs Kerry 2004

http://www.politicspa.com/maps...

Those 10 points in Philadelphia are just brutal.

27, R, PA-07.


What is really brutal
Not to spill the beans on the diary I will be releasing this weekend or Monday, but the biggest problem for the Republicans is not Philadelphia, but the region locally referred to as the Pennsylvania German heartland running from the Lehigh Valley down towards York.  Romney got less votes than Bush in that entire region with the exception of York County.  We are talking about a 100,000 vote decline.  People on here can focus on the Philly suburbs, but they are a moot point if we cannot turnout in what is a voterich area for us.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Lancaster is a big problem


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Several counties
Lancaster is the largest of the problematic counties, but Romney underperformed substantially in every single county of the region I discussed.  You are easily looking at a 50,000 vote deficit in 5 counties.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Are the Philly burbs moving west or is it somthing else?
I noticed the big drop in York and Lancaster Counties in 2008 and it's still bad there. I know there's a sizable minority population in the city centers, but Bush cleaned up those two counties.

I'm seeing some trouble in what on paper seems like a similar area except its more Dutch. West Michigan. Kent County (Grand Rapids - city dem, elsewhere R) actually went for Obama in 08 and was underwhelming in 06 and 2012. It used to be more Republican than Livingston County. Ottawa County dropped under 70%. Allegan dropped as well.    

My gut tells me it is highly religious social conservative anti-war purists staying home combined with minority growth. I can't prove it, but that's my gut.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Theory
Some refer to the culture of the area as being the Midlands.  

http://chronicle.com/article/a...

Midlands: America's great swing region was founded by English Quakers, who believed in humanity's inherent goodness and welcomed people of many nations and creeds to their utopian colonies on the shores of Delaware Bay. Pluralistic and organized around the middle class, the Midlands spawned the culture of the heartland, where ethnic and ideological purity have never been a priority, government has been seen as an unwelcome intrusion, and political opinion has been moderate, even apathetic. An ethnic mosaic from the start-it had a German, rather than British majority, at the time of the Revolution-the region shares the Yankee belief that society should be organized to benefit ordinary people, but it rejects top-down government intervention.

Pretty much summarizes the culture of the area.  The area has more in common with rural southern and eastern Ontario than Appalachia or Yankeedom.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
In many respects
This area seems prone to be turned off by highly ideological purity driven politics.  They want a conservative, but not someone who will shove it in their face.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
The Midlands
Who would be the ideal fit? Mitch Daniels comes to mind.

[ Parent ]
Several
Daniels, Portman, Toomey, Snyder, and Branstad.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
MI-03: Some dude to challenge Justin Amash
A 26-year-old bold progressive brewer! Congressman Amash must be quaking in his boots.

"I was thinking, 'if the Democrats are going to win the swing voters they need a guy who has worked for a union, doesn't mind getting his hands dirty, can drink a beer and sing to Bob Seger's greatest hits without being pretentious or elitist,'" McCulloch wrote.

"Then," he added, "I thought why sit around waiting for that person to come by when I could just get off my ass and run myself?"
...

McCulloch's platform already is posted on his page, and includes reproductive rights for women, increasing funding for education and universal health care.

A "big fan" of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal policies, McCulloch said he desires to see a new era of American Progressivism.

"Something comparable" to the New Deal and Roosevelt's ideology, McCulloch said, "is what is needed to fix America and get out out of our economic recession. We will not get there from making the already wealthy and powerful even more rich and powerful at the expense of the common citizen."

http://www.mlive.com/news/gran...


Ilya Sheyman?
Ugh why couldn't he have gotten the nomination.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Apparently he may have dropped out already
Read the comments section.

Sounds like a publicity stunt for his brewery.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
He forgot the old adage
If you're going to run for office, you probably don't want to look like a jackass smoking bongs in your underwear on Facebook.

And to refer to this guy as a "brewer" is pretty laughable. He's a "co-op activist" who won $5,000 and has used that to study the idea of opening a brewery at some point


[ Parent ]
FDR
Say what you want about FDR, but he was a right wing lunatic on social issues compared to this crowd.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Progressives and swing voters
Progressives believe they're in the political center. Conversation with one:

That idea is pretty far to the left.
Not compared to Europe. It's actually to the right.

Obamacare is pretty left wing.
Are you kidding? It's to the right. Pretty left wing would be single payer. Left wing would be a public option. This leaves it in the hands of insurance companies.

Run, progressives, run.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
New Hampshire
I've wondered is Craig Benson done with Electoral Politics?  I know he lost after one term, but considering the GOPs short bench in terms of big names to run against Kuster and CSP, is he a possibility?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

i think he is done
He kind of parachuted in from a very sucessful private sector, spent a ton of money and wanted to really turn NH into a Libertarian-leaning state, and run it like a business.  Likely he was frustrated with the politics of running a state, and probably has no desire to spend millions again to have any such job.  Benson as a Congressman would make no sense.  If you read about him and his tenure as Governor, you'd quickly come to the same realization.

[ Parent ]
Thanks
for the info.  He was around just before I got back into Politics big time, but this certainly makes sense and helps explain it.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Chambliss: Rice didn't lie, but put "softer touch" on it
http://thehill.com/video/senat...

Isn't he almost dead certain to get primaried in 2014? Depending on how this goes down, that comment could become useful ammo for his opponent.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


I wonder if he just retires now?
He also seems to be a pro-immigration reform guy; If he just retired that would free him to be at the forefront of a deal for that issue.

I really hope he retires, not so much because I want him gone (Graham is the only Sen up this cycle that rises to that level for me) but for the fact that we have a strong, ready-made successor in Price waiting. If Chambliss runs again there's a decent chance he gets taken out by someone much weaker and this becomes, if not a potential D pickup, at least a headache where we shouldn't be having one.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
GA
Outside of like Barrow and maybe Jim Marshall the Democrats don't have a statewide bench anymore, they were all wiped away in the past 4 or so years.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I don't think it would be a flip, but if we somehow wind up running someone like Erickson even a retread like Cox/Taylor/Baker/Poythress could be a pain in the a*.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
My only concern is geographical
Chambliss is from rural middle Georgia; there seems to be a tradition that one GA Senator is a "non-Atlanta" Senator

Price & Isakson are both from suburban ATL. Is there some number of voters in rural GA who might vote for a blue dog like Barrow were he to run?


[ Parent ]
I think so
He was on a Sunday show this past weekend and almost seemed to go out of his way to not criticize the President/Petraeus.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Herman Cain for Seante 2014?
He does live in GA....

[ Parent ]
No.
1. Cain's been damaged by the sex scandals and his lackluster-at-best Presidential campaign.
2. IIRC he's from metro Atlanta.

I'm not too worried about our bench for this one, actually. We've got so many congresscritters and a few statewide officers, so shouldn't be a hard hold as long as someone credible gets in if Chambliss retires. And I can't imagine someone credible not getting in if that happens. IIRC Chambliss isn't that young either.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
Amazing and scary part
PA is a few fractions of a percent away from being the tipping point state. 52.54% vs. 52.51% of 2 party vote for Obama.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Off by about 1%
The current vote is Obama 50.70%-47.7%. That's 51.54%-48.46% two party. Pennsylvania is 52.54%, Colorado 52.50%, Iowa 52.96%, New Hampshire 52.83%, Wisconsin 53.39%, Nevada 53.35%, and Minnesota 53.94%.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Moshe is correct.
The tipping point state is the state that puts you over 270 electoral votes. That's Colorado at 52.5% two-party vote. PA is less than a tenth of a point more Democratic.  

[ Parent ]
He got the Obama vote wrong, but tipping wrong
You add Virginia (D+0.4), Ohio (R+0.6) and Florida (R+1.1) to Romney's 206 you get 266. Colorado (D+0.96) would put you at 275. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin 53.39%, and Minnesota 53.94% are next. If the next election is 50-50 in the popular vote, as this one wasn't, then Pennsylvania is clearly a swing state.

Romney wasn't wrong to go into Pennsylvania to tip the electoral college. Romney was wrong that he had a shot in the electoral college.  

 

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
except there's also CO & PA trend lines
These PVI trend lines of CO getting bluer & PA getting redder appear likely to cross before 2016.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
But that's what he said.
He said that PA is a few fractions of a percent away from being the tipping point state. That is a correct statement, as the tipping point state is located at 52.5% two party vote, and PA is very close to that.  

[ Parent ]
PA is D+1
The trend continues.  If the state continues to lose D PVI at this rate, it will have a R PVI score within a decade.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Amedore (R) now ahead in NY senate race
This is the cause of recanvassing in Greene county
Absentees not counted yet. Next week.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Amedore should win this now
Taking a lead here is important. The State Senate GOP campaign committee spent lots of money on absentee ballot applications in this district. Basically every registered GOP & Conservative Party voter got sent an absentee ballot application. SO watch for those votes to lean GOP. The only negative for the GOP will be the provisional ballots. So we need to see what the breakdown will be between the two.

[ Parent ]
Scott Walker
says Wisconsin won't set up set up a state-run health care exchange.

https://www.facebook.com/WeSta...

Walker/Martinez 2016


Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman did the same thing yesterday
as did Gov.-elect Mike Pence of Indiana. This appears to be the strategy from most governors that oppose Obamacare-point out the costs of setting up a state-run exchange and point out that the federal government will probably end up controlling most things dealing with the law anyway, so put all of the onus on the federal government to deal with all of the problems.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Corbett as well
http://www.newsworks.org/index...

Pennsylvania simply cannot afford it.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Betty Sutton
What a jerk.
http://hoh.rollcall.com/sutton...

25, Male, R, NY-10

81% turnover rate?
That could be a reason why she lost.

Rep. Betty Sutton has a reputation for being a demanding boss, and for having a high staff turnover rate. Earlier this year, the Sunlight Foundation gave the Ohio Democrat the distinction of having the worst turnover rate in the House. How bad? She had a 19 percent retention rate.

Mike Rogers has the opposite situation. Most of his staff has been there for years, some going back to his state senate days.


A good boss usually has a good staff, which is usually good for 4-5% because the district issues are taken care of.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Sherman Berman gets nasty
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Haha. LCL can chime in, but did Sherman really win by going after GOP voters?

27, R, PA-07.


Probably
The total # of votes suggests that there wasn't much under-vote relative to 2008, and Sherman's win suggests that he won Republicans in the district (as they are a good 30% of votes in the district, which is a considerable sum).

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
They both went after GOP voters
There is an ugly underbelly of top two that only comes out if it's two people from the same party. Pete Stark spent 40 years in congress vilifying and hating, anyone right of center. And he won because Democrats always outnumbered Republicans by more than 2 to 1. When he went up against Eric Swalwell, he was stuck. He couldn't, and wouldn't, change to go after Republicans and he couldn't win without them. So he accused Swalwell of supporting the Ryan budget, Medicare vouchers, and other evil Republican positions.

Howard Berman and Brad Sherman were in a similar spot, albeit neither were Pete Stark. They had to get Republicans. Of course neither could or would pivot to the center. Unlike Stark though, neither was so far left that no Republican would vote for them.

Berman tied up a lot of Republican endorsements, but I'm not sure how he went after Republican voters. Berman didn't have as much to offer Democrats. So Republicans were his only hope.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Yet he trailed with them too. Brad Sherman just needed to hang on with them. And he obviously did. The faux indignation over the mailer is funny. Everyone knows that the point wasn't to play up racist homophobic misogynistic prejudices. Waters was ethically questionable. Republicans blame Barney Frank for Fanny and Freddy and let's face it, every Republican hates Barbara Boxer. Haven't we seen these Democrats, or other similar ones, in Republican ads for years?

The mailer was, of course, in poor taste because it was Brad Sherman's SuperPac tearing down his own caucus. Could you imagine a Bob Dutton ad accusing Gary Miller of voting for John Boehner for Speaker?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Brad Sherman, "faux indignation", etc
I haven't seen the mailer but taking great offense over small sins is a specialty of left-wing Democrats of the George Miller/Anna Eshoo variety.

As for having the top-2 from the same party, I think that -- Most of the time -- you will only see that happen in districts that are more than 2:1 in favor of one party. Yeah, the Miller/Dutton thing was an exception this year. But that's just 1 out of 53 districts. Let's see if it happens again in 2014.

Overall, I think top 2 is a healthy, beneficial system for voters and I hope it both continues in CA and spreads out to other states.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


[ Parent ]
65% Dem are probably on the edge where this happens
IE, where 2 of the same party are reasonably likely to come out of the primary, but the other party has sizable influence.

In an 80% Dem district you presumably ignore the Republicans.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
You need to include independents
So you won't get to 80%D. Here is the breakdown of the same party districts.

CA-8 32%D/41%R
CA-15 48%D/23%R
CA-30 49%D/25%R
CA-31 41%D/35%R
CA-35 48%D/26%R
CA-40 61%D/14%R
CA-43 60%D/17%R
CA-44 64%D/12%R

SurveyUSA did a CA-44 poll that was 66%D/17%R/15%I. Hahn led Richardson 46%-37% with Democrats. If Hahn wins Democrats 55%-45%, then Richardson could've won the election by going 60%-40% with the rest of the voters. Of course they aren't all Republicans but if you're fairly close on Democrats then you need to go after Republicans and independents. Lucille Roybal-Allard probably got 80% of Democrats. At that point she could ignore everyone else.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I know I was for Sherman in the D on D matchup
Considering they'd vote the same way on everything anyway, his hilarious "Better Know a District" interview is pretty much why. If you need a hearty laugh this Friday, watch this:
http://www.colbertnation.com/t...

[ Parent ]
Well, not on everything.
(Sherman is a protectionist, dove, and voted against TARP. Berman had much more militaristic foreign policy views (voting to invade Iraq both times), was pro-NAFTA, and pro-TARP.)

The video isn't playing for me though, could you tell me what you thought was funny?

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
The video
Try playing it later. He just has a very good sense of humor about his district's porn industry. It's a funny interview.

Yeah, I knew they differed on foreign policy and TARP, but didn't know about their differences on trade. Hasn't Berman recoiled on TARP, though? What I meant, though, is that on 98% of roll call votes, Sherman and Berman voted identically.


[ Parent ]
Disagree
I think they are missing the point of 2012:  Republicans have unrealistic expectations of their candidates and are too willing to stay home if they are not perfect

Conservatives didn't stay home because they thought Romney wasn't perfect. They stayed home because they actively disliked Romney.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


I should add
Not all conservatives.

But enough.

This was a base election and Romney couldn't get out his base.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
I agree with this
I think the number one lesson of 2012 is that you have to nominate candidates for President that people like! Voting for a president is unlike voting for other office. I think a lot of people base their vote as much on "likeability" as they do on issues. If you look back at Presidential elections over the last 32 years you can see voters tended to always pick the more likeable candidate. Reagan over Carter/Mondale, GHW Bush over "cold fish" Dukakis, Clinton over Bush & old man Dole, GW over the wooden Al Gore and the Boston Brahmin Kerry and Obama's hope vs old man McCain & rich guy Romney. In every one of these election the guy voters would be more inclined to share a beer with one. Obama's people understood that and help cultivate that image of him as a cool guy you like even if you disagree with his policies. Romney tried to be all about the issues but at the core voters could not connect with him. As my wife said "I dont care what Romney stands for I just dont like the guy".

[ Parent ]
Agree Exactly
I think this is why Christie would make such an exceptional candidate. It doesn't matter what his policies are, people resonate with him and can't help but like the guy.


Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Democrats Alternate Reality
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

1. When a company is successful it's because of the workers. When a company is unsuccessful it's because of bad management. So why should the workers have to give up anything when it's not their fault?

2. Providing jobs are part of the debt that rich people have for having success in the United States and anyone who doesn't is selfish.

3. That people actually make more money by taking a profitable company and turning it into a money loser.

4. The response to companies wanting to recoup their lost Obamacare dollars is to boycott them and punish them until they behave properly.

It must be great to never have a role in anything.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I'll just say
That the cost of doing business, including compliance with government regulations, is always factored into prices. Obamacare is not exceptional in that regard. So, it seems to me that CEOs announcing that they're firing workers or raising prices due to Obamacare is just bad PR strategy. Anyone who opposes Obamacare doesn't need persuasion, and anyone who supports it will just think 'what an [redacted]'! That's probably why Denny's Florida franchise, for instance, backed off the 5% surcharge in all of two days. They could've quietly raised tabs from, say, $15 to $15.75 and no one would've made a peep. Announcing that they're doing so is a political statement, and they promptly got the backlash they should've known they would get.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
You're right
I rarely see a reasoned argument from a Democrat that's rooted in reality. I know that you likely bristle when we paint all Democrats with a broad brush and may have scoffed at my reasons. This is the Democratic attitude communicated to me.

You're right that by attributing it to Obamacare they're just pissing a certain group off. They may be upset that they have to do this and want it repealed but that's not something you want to communicate to customers. I'm not one for boycotts and I don't believe you boycott for a political stance. If you chose to boycott them for being #%#$, I'd totally understand.

Republican and Democratic policies can have a positive or negative impact on individuals and society. It's certainly conceivable that Obamacare will lower healthcare costs, health insurance costs, cover everybody, and all that wonderful stuff. The question is what to do if it fails. Would you prefer to sweep it under the rug or have companies voice the actual problems?

Of course it's not always so easy to hide costs. What do you say to the people you put at less than 30 hours a week? No other way to explain that. When the health insurance company petitions to increase rates, they have to give reasons why.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Private equity often tries to cash out even as their companies are going down
Of course it's much more profitable to successfully turn a company around, but it is possible to still make money off of a failing company by borrowing money on that company's books to repay your investment.  Not sure if this happened in the case of Hostess, but if it did, that could be what the union rep was talking about.

Either way, Hostess had problems beyond its labor costs and may have failed anyway, so to some extent the whole thing is ridiculous political posturing.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
The banks would have to be pretty stupid
To loan a failing business money and allow the private equity firm to take it out. Those kind of banks go out of business. Of course Hostess has been in Chapter 11 all year and I doubt a bankruptcy judge is going to allow them to take out a dime.

No company fails solely due to high labor costs. They can afford them when times are good. The problem for companies like GM are that any hit in sales is going to make the labor costs are suddenly prohibitive.

I just found out that striking workers are not entitled to unemployment benefits in most states. I can't imagine that's the case in heavily Democratic union states. If the workers are getting the shaft from management you'd think Democrats would want to take care of them.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
banks
Usually, in such a situation, the banks act as an intermediary to flog the debt to 3rd parties, citing the interest rate, prospective conversion of debt to stock.

Something like what happened to the bundled mortgages.

I dont, in any case, know the structure of the debt that was incurred.


[ Parent ]
Bundled Mortgages
The banks went into the mortgage business thinking that there would be no way that so many mortgages would go bad all at once. Those that went in heavily (Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Countrywide, Lehman Brothers) went out of business.  Even if the banks are able to sell off the debt someone is left holding the bag. If a private equity firm borrows a ton of money and doesn't pay it back, then banks aren't going to loan money to them again.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Commercial debt
As someone who works for a firm that represents several commercial banks and secondary loan purchasers, it is common for banks to sell non-performing assets or distressed assets to third parties for a fraction of the outstanding balance.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
But they're not going to loan to the same guy again
If someone takes their money, plucks off a nice profit for themselves, and then plunges the company into bankruptcy leaving the bank with a non-performing asset, people aren't likely to give them money again.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
UT-4
Yeah, Love didn't run an especially good campaign, and she was blinded by national stardom.

I'd still give her another shot in 2014 though. Give her a chance outside the spotlight of a presidential campaign. The Mormon vote will still turn out, still vote for her, without Romney on the ticket. But this time she'll have to verse herself more in local issues, and Matheson's floor will be a little lower.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


Second-time candidates.
I remember reading on Patrick Ruffini's sight once that, in Westminster systems, it's common practice to give a promising young candidate an extremely up-hill district to run in for their first campaign, so they can do all their learning and make their mistakes, then move them to a more promising district in the future. I feel like, in American politics, if you run pretty close in your first election you tend to get one more shot. Second time candidates often perform better than first-timers. However, if you run and lose twice, you tend to do even worse the third time. So, for Love, she's got to figure out if 2014 is going to be an environment in which she can actually beat Matthuson, and learn the mistakes from her first campaign. If he's looking tough to beat in 2014, she may want to hold off; she's still young enough not to rush.

I wonder if this also applies to Strickland, Maldinado and a few others (Ricky Ghil comes to mind). Recall Allen West lost to Ron Klein by like 10 points in 2008, and came back to win in 2012. I could see a few of our recruits who fell short in 2012 going again in 2014, actually.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
I agree with that general view
Love, West, and Maldonado should run again. I would like to see someone a bit more established in CA-9 and someone not as conservative in CA-26. I really like Strickland, but he may not be nimble enough to win and then hold the district long term.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Responses.
Do we actually have anyone who is more established in CA-09? I know Ghil's young, but IIRC he was a very strong fund-raiser and kept it closer than expected. Of course, given how young he is, he can probably wait for the 2022 redistricting to give him a clean San Joaquin district, and run for an office in the San Joaquin area in the mean-time.

I think West almost certainly runs again; Patrick Murphy just seems like a one-term rep. However, West had better make sure he's got an iron-clad case on the recount; he doesn't want to be the next Norm Coleman.

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
Gill lost by 8 points
He didn't keep it close, especially considering he raised over 2 million and and got 7 figure help in IE's.

And I don't plan 10 years out, so even thinking about 2022 is a bit premature.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
How about Asm. Bill Berryhill (R-Stockton)?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Tony has won Ventura County Repeatedly
He won three assembly races and a state senate race. Three of those four elections were very very close. I can't think of anyone who is a better candidate. Maldonado lost by 10. Strickland lost by 4.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
And two months ago I would have agreed with you
He had a head start against a weak opponent an still lost. That tells me we need someone else there. I don't know if we should turn to Linda Parks, but I'm not feeling good about Tony running again. Because even if he wins, a stronger Democrat will take it from him during presidential years.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
not a valid comparison
Capps had incumbency

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Word is Capps may retire
That's why I think Abel will run again.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
In Love's case, I agree


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Margaret Thatcher did just that
She ran in a safe Labour seat her first election. After a few years out of politics, the party rewarded her with the safe Tory seat in Finchley she held for the rest of her career.

[ Parent ]
Bilbray concedes
Man, what a bummer of an election in California.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


After update
Obama up by slightly more in CO than in PA.
It means 2 things. 1) CO is probably gone. 2) How bad CW was.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

If CO's "gone"
So is the White House. We're talking about a state Dole won in 1996z

Obviously we need to get back on the streets in a lot of states; Beltway based campaigns fail  


[ Parent ]
Others have made the point
But if you want people to pound the pavement then you first need a charismatic party leader who will inspire them to do that. In short, assess Romney's public persona and look for the opposite.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
CO/NV/NM are out of reach until the GOP can
appeal to Hispanics again.  But making IA/MN/MI/PA, or even just one or two of them, into R+ PVI states will easily make up for it.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Disagree about CO
It's not that Hispanic; the bigger, more immediate problem is continued influx of progressives into Ski Country, Denver, and Boulder. Remember we came very close to winning CO-2 as recently as the mid-90s.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Its a mix of many trends
Sort of like how California's journey from Republican stronghold to Democratic one resulted not only from Hispanic immigration but also the gradual leftward shift of White voters and the Dramatic Leftward lurch of Asian ones.

Remember, we used to win Asians handily even 20 years ago, and by the exit polls they voted more for Obama here than the Hispanics did.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
considering PAs trend I disagree


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
As long as Philly has 100-0 Democrat precincts
I'll never trust our chances in PA as opposed to a more suburban state like CO  

[ Parent ]
and I don't trust states trending D as strongly over a decade as CO has shown
Colorado became the magnet in the rocky mountains for Democrats to move to over a decade ago.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Philly
The 100-0 precincts are nothing new.  The Republican problem stems from a failure to turn out votes in the Republican heartland of the state.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
We barely won PA in 1988
Turning out the T huge & winning all 4 SEPA suburban counties. I think we're near the end of picking off WPA defectors from the Dems. As long as we need to make up 500K plurality and have 66 counties to do it with I won't put PA ahead of CO; where we are simply underperforming in suburban Denver.  

[ Parent ]
Ds areas in PA not keeping up with PA growth
Philadephia grew by less than a percentage point between 2000 & 2010 while PA as a whole grew almost 3 1/2 percent

Pittsburgh out right shrank (yet again) between 2000 & 2010.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
1988
1988 is a bad example as western Pennsylvania was still very heavily Democratic. If we got our current margins there then Dukakis would have been slaughtered here as well.  

The long term Democratic problem in PA stems from their counties growing slower if not losing population compared to the Republican counties.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Something I just realized
Anyone else notice that Republicans did considerable better in the house in Presidential Swing States?  The only states of the "Swing states" where we lost house seats were Florida (where the redistricting amendment and flawed incumbents cost us seats) and New Hampshire?  We stayed even or gained in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Admittedly we drew the lines in most of those states, but the reason I find this interesting is because if the Democrat's superior ground game was tied to the Obama campaign, then we should have seen bigger than average losses in those states rather than almost none.  Rather it looks like we got out-hustled in states neither candidate put effort into.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


Team O focused on running up the score in their base counties
I'm sure they made little headway in the 12 GOP seats in OH but their pluralities in the 4 seats conceded to the Ds made it academic  

[ Parent ]
Michigan is heavily self-packed
The Michigan counties map looked like what is usually a 4-5% loss map. What killed us was the blue areas getting bluer. The big four dem counties (almost always close to 60% or bigger) came out big for Obama.

Wayne - Three districts with bluest areas safe dem. Most of MI-11 new (old flipped) is in Oakland, and the worst parts of Oakland are in MI-14 and MI-9.
Washtenaw - MI-12 has the blue sinks. Walberg actually won his part of Washtenaw.
Genesee - All of it is in MI-5
Ingham - The only one in a red to purple district. Mike Rogers does well here, and also has two GOP strongholds (Livingston, N Oakland) to counter it.

Muskegon (MI-2) and Kalamazoo (MI-6) Counties are getting worse, but Ottawa in MI-2 and Allegan in MI-6 help us out a bit.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
so are several other states
All city references refer to City limits plus in some cases inner suburbs but do NOT refer to the Metro areas as a whole.

Two court drawn states:

Nevada: Democrats self packed into (a portion of) Vegas
Court

Colorado: Democrats self packed into Denver, Boulder, and ski resorts

Republican controlled states:

Wisconsin: Democrats self packed into Milwaukee & Madison

Indiana: Democrats self packed into Indianapolis and that county in the NW corner of the state that amounts to more Chicago.

Missouri: Democrats self packed into STL, KC, and to a lesser extent Columbia.

Ohio: Democrats self packed into Cleveland, Columbus, and Cinci.

PA: Democrats self packed into Philadelphia & Pittsburgh

VA: Democrats self packed into DC suburbs & Richmond

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Obama's popular vote margin hit 3.0%.
50.7-47.7.  

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Looks like your landslide prediction
from the spring definitely manifested. Obama's 2-point victory in Kentucky was what surprised me the most.

/endsnark

MA-08  


[ Parent ]
Lead is now nearly 3.1%
50.71%-47.62%. Mitt is 172k short of McCain. Obama is 5.8 million short of his own 2008 total.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Obama
I think that it is generally accepted that Obama overperformed to underlying political demographics in 2008.

2012 is more within the normal range, maybe a bit high.

The national demographics is pretty close to 50/50.


[ Parent ]
PA-12
It funny that they always get the losers to say things like: "He better not be a Tea Partier or he'll lose!!"  "He better compromise and be moderate or he's gonna lose!!"  "He better basically do everything the union wants or he's gonna lose!!"  
First, when do you remember a piece about Matheson or another Demoderate where they were lectured about staying moderate and compromising or risk losing?  Rarely.  Also, it's getting pathetic that they can't even say that there are enough Union people to matter, but the children of Union people who went to college because of Unions are going to remember!  Soon it will be "Rothfus better be careful, because the great-grandparents of the district were in Unions, so their kids' kids' kids still know that they need to support them!

Union kids
There is a substantial disconnect between the union types and everyone else including the children of union types. That said, the Dems abandoned the unions in that region.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I'm from a union family
Our family is politically split. While there isn't a lot of love for outsourcing in this family, most of them voted bedgrudgingly for Romney.

Most of the "union kids" in the family voted all over the place, and unions only really mattered to two of them. One was also in a union and is a right-populist who dislikes corporate R's more than social liberal D's but is open to a Santorum type. The other was fiscally more liberal and is influenced by dad. The rest voted largely on other issues R, D, or Libertarian.

My dad's a conservative independent who is probably now an R due to 2004. I've been an R since 2001. I agree with the union on outsourcing, but that's about it. As far as I'm concerned, they don't give a damn about workers anymore, only the politics.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Looks like Democrats Held Salt Lake County Mayor 55-45
While the rest of the ticket was losing the county. Obama lost 58-39.  

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


LGBT vote may have cost Romney election
According to the NYTimes, exit poll data indicates that if you removed the LGBT vote, Romney and Obama would have been in a dead heat  49-49 (as opposed to Romney being behind by 3 points).  The exit polls indicate that LGBT voters made up 5% of the 2012 vote, and went for Obama 76-22.  Of course you can make the same argument with several key groups, such as African American voters or Hispanics,but I don't think political comentators give much thought to the LGBT vote when compared to other key groups. The article goes on to state that Romney would likely have won Ohio and Florida but for the LGBT vote.  Further, based on Gallup data, the amount of Americans 18-29 who self identify as LGBT is 6.4%; this means the LGBT share of the electorate is likely to grow a little with time.  

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