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Open Thread for Friday, November 16, 2012

by: Right Reformer

Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 20:30:00 PM EST


Happy end of the week everyone. At this point I'm vacillating between burnout and withdrawal when it comes to politics.

1. Which 2012 candidates should run again, and which candidates should stay far away from electoral politics for good?

(For UT-4, the article linked earlier today quotes Matheson as saying he'll never have as hard a race as he did in 2012. Something of a warning shot for Mayor Love)

2. What platform positions can the GOP emphasize or adopt to increase its appeal to middle class voters?

Right Reformer :: Open Thread for Friday, November 16, 2012
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The WA state Senate
might be an interesting body to watch come next year. There is talk that the Republicans and two moderate Dem Senators will team up and install themselves as the majority party, electing one of the two moderates (Tom Rodney, a former Republican state House member) as the Senate leader and having the Senate run under a coalition of Republicans and moderate Dems. This would depend on the last uncalled Senate race going GOP (where the Republican incumbent has a slight lead), and would give the GOP/mod Dem coalition a 25-24 seat majority.

http://seattletimes.com/html/p...

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


Running again
You always want candidates who've won before. I'd feel confident with Dan Lungren going for a rubber match. But Dan is getting older and it may be time for younger blood.

Obviously Republican favorites like Mia Love and Allen West should run. Yes, I know both underachieved Mitt, but I'd like them both in congress. Tony Strickland should definitely get a rematch in CA-26. If Martha McSally loses, she should try again.

Anybody game for another Charlie Bass comeback? Just joking.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


hmm
1. Martha McSally, clearly.  She's very impressive and a strong candidate.  Beyond that, I'm not too sure.    Definitely not Allen West, although I'm all for it if you decide to run him.  He underperformed Romney.  I think of the incumbents who lost, none should run again.  This wasn't a wave; the incumbents who lost either lost because they were poor candidates or the district was too tough.  Neither of those two things will change in 2014.  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


District being too tough
Well, that will change in a lot of cases in 2014 thanks to turnout dynamics.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yeah; it's not like Bob Dold did anything to get beat
Other than run in a year when Obama was on the ballot  

[ Parent ]
Schneider's incumbency
should more than make up for lower turnout

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I could see seats flipping 3 times in 3 cycles
If the 2014 turnout favors the GOP candidate but the natural PVI of the seat brings back the Dems in 2016. Both Illinois and California are prime candidates for this flip-flip-flip sequence.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
It's a shame neither of the NH Republicans survived 2006.
Otherwise they would produce some sort of record in consecutive flips, I'm sure.

[ Parent ]
I guess
but outside of a few very Hispanic districts, we don't yet know how it will change.  It could be another 2010 or another 1998.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I'm betting 1986 will be the best parallel
Republicans have plenty of good targets in the house, but the fact that they have the majority and that they won most of the easy seats in 2010 means I'd bet 8-15 seats flip R net.  Nothing amazing, but probably still a small-to-medium net gain.

I can't see more than 20 or less than even for Republicans.  Obama can't piss of Republicans as much as he did in '09 & '10 since Republicans still control the house, but the odds of Democrats beating the 6-year-itch are minimal without Boehner really blowing it.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Jonathon Patton
Could Patton run again?

[ Parent ]
Jonathan Paton
Not sure... he's lost twice now. He'd potentially be crossing into a Dan Seals-level of desperation in the eyes of voters but, considering there's little crossover between the new AZ-01 and the old AZ-08, most voters may just not know that he's run three times.

[ Parent ]
FL-19
I'm thinking we should turn to Mike Haridopolos who still has $2 million in his federal account  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Jackson's illness
was mitigated enough last month for him to make a quick stop into his office... in order to fire a staffer for supporting for Marcus Lewis, the indie running against him. http://abclocal.go.com/wls/sto...

R - MD-7

Number one
Worthy of another shot - Ann Marie Burkele, Bob Dold, Nan Hayworth, Rob McKenna, Heather Wilson

Time to hang it up - Bob Kerrey, Ovide Lamontagne, Linda McMahon, John Raese, Tommy Thompson, Joe Walsh, Allen West

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Heather Wilson is done
I was as big of a fan of her's as any, but she cannot get elected statewide in NM and she would have a tough time with her old seat.

We need to hope Duran and Barela run for the sentate and NM-1, respectively.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Question
Is it better to run against Udall or wait until Heinrich in 2018? Udall rivals Martinez on the popularity scale, I think.

[ Parent ]
I would go after both
http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/...

Martinez is at 69/17 in approval (obviously other polls could differ, but she's pretty popular), so I doubt Udall is even close to that.

I would prefer Martinez run for the senate, but that seems very unlikely. My second choice is Dianna Duran. With Martinez at the top of the ticket, Duran as a Latina who won statewide in 2010 could give Udall his toughest challenge.

I would then like to see Jon Barela give NM-1 another shot, so he could possibly be groomed for 2018 against Heinrich, if Martinez doesn't run then as well. Obviously winning this district would be extremely difficult, but races like these should be contested, so who knows.


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
If Martinez wants to dump John Sanchez
she could push him to run against Udall in 2014. I would love to see Wilson make a play for her old house seat in 2014 but I think she might be done. Pols rarely get a 2nd 2nd chance at a comeback. Its a shame because if NM had an open Senate seat in 2010 I think she would have won it.

[ Parent ]
Questions
1) Any candidate who mentions rape and abortion in the same paragraph.

2) The GOP is really missing a chance to whack the Democrats on crime.  Use the existing platform to push law and order issues harder.  They are a winner for our side and almost always a loser for the Democrats.

28, Republican, PA-6


2. I think the GOP needs to abandon the Norquist Pledge
It makes the party look extremely inflexible and unwilling to compromise.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


Basically my logic is
The GOP can, if they wish, continue to oppose tax hikes on the wealthy.  But by automatically ruling them out, they look bad to swing voters.  At least pretend to be open to the idea.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Agree
The Pledge makes it impossible to reform the tax code as being exactly revenue neutral is impossible.  In addition, it has led to the defense of many deductions that should be phased out, which is something Coburn likes to point out as being absurd.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Tax increases
I stand with Dr. Coburn on most everything, including whatever tax reform he proposes.

That said, there is no Norquist Pledge. That sort of rhetoric is straight from the DNC talking points. The Americans for Tax Reform has a pledge that a lawmaker signs with his constituents. If a lawmaker decides not to sign the pledge or to break the pledge that's between him or her and the district constituents. If the constituents want tax increases they can elect someone who supports them.

If you elect a Republican, the one thing you know you're getting is someone who won't raise taxes. If you want someone who will, elect a Democrat. If Republicans support ax increases, what are you getting when you vote for one?

I have no real problem with tax increases in theory, they almost always lead to more spending investment and aren't used to pay down debt. Of course there are issues with the whole "tax the rich" more, aside from the fact that they pay an inordinate amount of taxes and just taxing them is tyranny of the majority.

Every employer I've ever worked for has been rich. Unsuccessful people don't have the money to hire anyone. Successful people do. And they don't have piles of money sitting around waiting for the tax man to come and get it. They want to keep it and will do things like firing people to make the same profit.

Raising taxes on people making $250k+ a year is only, optimistically, going to raise about $70 billion a year. When you're deficit is over $1 trillion increasing revenue by $70 billion isn't a strategy for solving anything. So why is anyone acting like it would?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
The electoral problem stems from a lack of knowledge. The pledge is also too broad.
If a member votes to both get rid of some deductions and lower the base rates, he could be portrayed, truthfully, as voting for boths tax cuts and tax hikes. In reality, he might have voted for a restructuring with no net change or an overall cut. Some individuals might end up paying more under the new rules. That would depend on which deductions they were getting under the old rules. However, the move would be a net tax cut and bring down other people's tax bills. The member could still be portrayed as having raised taxes because he cut deductions. Norquist is trying to starve the federal government of revenue so that it's forced to cut spending. That sounds like a good idea until you factor in the tendency to borrow the balance. Many voters don't know about this aspect of the pledge.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Nordquist's plan to starve the Federal government has been abject failure.  The no tax pledge does nothing to balance the budget or control spending when lawmakers can borrow without end.  Nordquist's pledge should be changed to support a straight prohibition of spending increases beyond the rate of inflation.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I don't know how much "The Pledge" really means anymore
Jeff Fortenberry disavowed "The Pledge" last year but it got little attention outside of our local political columnist who painted it as a bold move and something that could generate a serious primary challenge from the right this year. But not only did it not generate a serious primary challenge(he was challenged by 2 "some dudes" who took a combined 14% of the vote), but nobody even publicly mulled such a challenge. Nobody from the local Tea Party groups or any other conservative group made much of it either.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Should abandon Norquist (the person) first
I like the idea of the pledge - though I admit it has its problems, I like the fact that Republicans have a very simple one-sentence brand as the party of no new taxes.

IMO what needs to go is not the pledge but Norquist himself. That Cheshire cat smile and his delight in being publicly inflexible on the pledge makes him a wonderful boogie man and an easy villain for Democrats. He should get out of the National Picture.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
FL-18; West is getting a full recount of all early votes starting tomrrow in St. Lucie
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

That's good news
I still think West loses, but at least we won't have arbitrary decisions by election officials calling the result into doubt.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
NC Recounts
http://www.newsobserver.com/20...
One of the last Blue Dogs in Congress, Mike McIntyre, will probably win as the final count has him six hundred votes ahead of David Rouzer. Rouzer can request a recount but it probably wouldn't change who won. I don't think Rouzer should run again. I heard people say he was lackadaisical as a campaigner and maybe having a candidate from the coastal area would be a better strategy.

Dan Forest is up by 6,000 votes but that isn't enough to stave off a recount. His Democratic challenger probably will request one and she and her campaign team are looking into all kinds of legal maneuvers, even arguing the legality of North Carolina forbidding people to register to vote on election day. He should still win and make it so if McCrory has to leave office, a Republican will replace him.

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/...
Current Republican State Representative Bill Cook has a 32 vote lead (and thus in recount territory) over incumbent State Senator Stan White. This is significant because this district for a long time elected Democrat Marc Basnight to the state senate and he was regarded as perhaps the most powerful man in the state due to the power he held as Senate President Pro Tem. This district is Republican at the presidential level but for a long time has favored Democrats down-ballot.


UT-4: Any chance Josh Romney runs in 2014
I think he could take Matheson out in a 6 yr itch election.

I think the Romney's need to get out of the politics business


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Why?
I don't think that having one family member not faring so well politically is a death sentence for an entire family. Look at the Bush's. George W. Bush's presidency has not completely tarnished his brother, or his nephew, in the political realm. I think if Josh Romney wants a political career, he is entitled to give it a chance as much as anyone else.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Quayles
would be a counterexample.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
What has Josh Romney actually done that warrants a high profile run?
He's no different than thousands of people in Utah's 4th district except for the fact that he's from a wealthy family with a famous father. I think generally speaking we need to stop the legacy annointing that we have done.

George P. Bush put in the work and proved to be a rare talent. So he's the exception. But I am not ready to annoint say Jeb Bush Jr. in FL-26. I don't think he's done anything to deserve that.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
What did Jim Matheson do before he was elected to Congress?
Other than the fact that Matheson was from a wealthy family with a famous ex-Gov dad he is no different than thousands of people in UT-4 too. Bottom line is if Matheson last name was Finklestein he never would have been elected to Congress. Famous last names and brands matter in politics. Josh Romney's name and connections can raise enough money to win in the same way Matheson's famous last name helped him.

[ Parent ]
Same for Casey junior...
I think Josh Romney could easily defeat Matheson...in the other hand I am doubtful Mia Love could accomplish the task...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Matheson has proven he's a talented politician
What has Josh Romney proven? Also the Matheson family has been huge in Utah, whereas the Romney's have no connection other than being Mormon.

In all likelihood Mia Love runs again and the party gives her another shot through the convention process.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Hmm
Matheson has proven he's a talented politician. What has Josh Romney proven?

What have any of our nominees against Matheson since 1998 proven, other than that they're not talented politicians by any stretch? A nominee who focuses on the issues and has a successful track record in business or office could absolutely take down Jim Matheson. We haven't run anyone like that yet.

[ Parent ]
Love's been elected before and came out of nowhere to win at the convention
And she gave Matheson the closest scare of his career.

Josh Romney a good businessman?
I have no idea, but other than the fact that his name is Romney would we even be talking about him?

Does he even live in the district?

And what did he do on the stump for his dad that gives you any impression that he would be a good candidate?
I did not see anything special.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Josh Romney
Yes, Josh Romney lives in the Millcreek area of Salt Lake City which is in Matheson's UT-02 district. Of the other Romney sons, two live in Boston and two live in San Diego.

The list of businessmen who have run for office based on their business background is quite lengthy, to say the least. Why on earth should a successful businessman not run for office merely because his last name is Romney, which is what you're saying?

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
I'm all in favor of good businessmen running for office
But, my first criteria for running for anything is to be a good candidate. And I haven't seen anything from Romney on the stump that would make Romney a good candidate.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
No.
S/he seems to be saying that Romney should be taken on exactly those terms,and that his qualities as a candidate should be weighed objectively outside of that. If Love taught the Republican party one thing it's that "star" recruits won't work if they lack the basic qualities of a quality candidate. What should be being discussed is whether a white harvard-educated businessman is the right sort of profile to contrast against Matheson, investigating whether Romney has the qualities of a quality candidate, and examining how his last name might interact with his electoral campaign - but no one suggesting J. Romney has addressed of this.

aas34 doesn't seem to be saying he shouldn't run, but that Republicans should step back and look at his campaign with the healthy dose of skepticism that always should be involved with candidates without prior background in electoral politics, which seems to be lacking in this thread. If I was Rep. Matheson I would be perfectly pleased with seeing the opposition nominate untested unknown quantity because of their last name or their presumed fundraising ability.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
OK
I obviously agree with the points made in your reply and the reply from aas34. However, that wasn't how I had read the earlier comments. I wasn't seeing: 'Josh Romney should throw his hat in the ring if he wants to run and then let's see how good a candidate he is.'

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Love's ineptitude
1) She lost when Romney got ~65% of the vote in UT-04, 3/4ths of which was new to Jim Matheson. The fact that she lost so many heavily GOP precicnts to a non-incumbent Democrat in a Presidential election year when the GOP voters in those precincts should, by nature, favor any R over any D is downright frightening.

2) What did she do on the stump to make you think she'd be a good candidate? Plenty, it seems, but she lost at the ballot box in a seat that was 3/4ths new to Jim Matheson and that voted heavily for Mitt Romney. All she really did was give good speeches using broad, conservative platitudes. Matheson absolutely skewered her at debates because she knows little about federal policy. She then had the nerve to campaign for Mitt Romney in Ohio when her election was far from certain. We need someone who can run on more than platitudes and good speeches in order to take down a Utah institution like Jim Matheson who's now an institution to the voters of UT-04, something he wasn't when he lost to a presumptuous opponent. It's time to give someone new a chance, even if that opponent is not Josh Romney. I'm by no means saying he's the end all, just that he's probably a better candidate and deserves a chance to be taken seriously if he wants to run.


[ Parent ]
Candidates in the past have proven to do much better a second go around
Obviously the opposite has happened as well. However, Love lost by just over 1%. It wasn't a blowout.

If Matheson gets a tighter grip on the district, he will be unbeatable. Love has a base of support, a second go around for her could give her the opportunity to work on those GOP voters that voted for Matheson. Especially, during a 6 year itch.

A new candidate would have to start completely over, which could give Matheson the opportunity to expand his base.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
National celebrity candidates
It seems like voters don't like national celebrity candidates.  I think this is a good thing.  Candidates should represent their district and be concerned with their district.  On the Republican side it seems like these minority star candidates are driven by it even more.  Love is probably the best example of it.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Has the media ever declared an incumbent Democrat a debate loser?
Trust me, that's a rigged game
I do get the out of state campaign argument: a decisive number of voters could have been nonplussed by this and decided Matheson more worried about UT constituents  

[ Parent ]
Incumbent
They usually declare the incumbent the winner regardless of the party of the incumbent.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Debate losers
I do remember vaguely a presidential debate... the first one, I think... which year was that again?  

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I think
They meant Congressional races, but I could be wrong.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
By the same logic...
What did Mia Love do to warrant a run, let alone a second run? Josh Romney is a successful, Harvard Business School educated real estate investor. He's just as (if not way more) qualified than the mayor of a small town to run for UT-04.

[ Parent ]
Yes and No
A town of 16,000+ people is not small especially seeing the area has underwent rapid growth, which makes a mayor's job more difficult depending on the structure of local government.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Why?
I think this statement is motivated by wanting Mia Love to have a clear shot at the nomination in UT-04 in 2014. However, even if he's not, it's downright silly to say that just because one family member lost two races for the Presidency, his sons can't run for office in a place like Utah. It's not like they're a bunch of bums; each one of the Romney boys is absolutely qualified, to a varying degree, to run for office based on their achievements.  

[ Parent ]
lol
Why am I not surprised someone is pushing a minority, who I think is qualified, over some guy whose equally as qualified?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Did I say Romney wasn't qualified?
I don't think so. I just don't think he would make a good candidate.

I've never mentioned qualifications before on this website, but I think anyone that meets the constitutional requirements is qualified. My opinions here are almost always based on elections.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Your setiment is exactly why Josh Romney should run
Josh Romney beating Matheson in UT-04 in 2014 will be like GW Bush beating Anne Richards in TX in 1994. It will be the start of the rehabilitation of the Romney brand name. Josh should do it and I think he could win.

[ Parent ]
Agree
Running for Congress would be a good way for the political brand to be rehabilitated.  Wasn't there a move to get him to run before?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Yes there was in 2008
But he deferred because he didnt want his political career to distract from his dad's. He was also talked of as a candidate for LT Gov of Utah in 2009. He clearly put his political ambition on hold for his dad's.

[ Parent ]
Answer to question #2
The 1st thing the GOP can do is NEVER use the term middle class. This is America. We are a classless society and dont have classes! You can use the term middle income. But once you start framing the debate in terms of classes and class distinction the GOP has lost. Class warfare and class pandering is a socialist game the Left plays. The GOP platform needs to be about growth and making middle income Americans feel they can have a shot at becoming upper income Americans with the GOP in charge.

How can a word be socialist?
"Class" is simply a word to describe a range of incomes; using the phrase "middle income" means the same thing. The only classless society would be a communist one without variation in economic status.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I think he was equating "class" and "caste"
Not 100% sure though. Either way, they aren't the same thing.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Well, traditionally the word class doesn't have too much to
do with income-- the Marxist definition of class struggle is that classes pit the owners of the means of production against their workers. That would reach far beyond the modern US class definitions.

However, I do agree that the term Middle Class has broader implications than Middle income. Middle income is a purely technical term. Middle Class has cultural implications that reach beyond pure income.

I could see that a framework that goes away from class definitions could benefit the GOP. I don't think however that a couple GOP pundits stopping to use the term would do anything.


[ Parent ]
It does have much broader implications than just income
which is why it has no place in discussions about American society. America is an upwardly (and in some cases a downwardly) mobile society. Where the son of a janitor can become a CEO (and conversely where the son of a CEO can become a janitor). This is VERY different from European societies which have a history in which people are born into their station in life and in all likelihood will stay there. When we start talking about classes we are getting away from the American ideals. Thats not how the GOP will win votes.

[ Parent ]
?
There's nothing about the phrase middle class that denotes being unable to leave that class, I think OGGoldy is right and you're conflating class with caste (a hereditary system of classes, where you're born into your class.)

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
If you look at how the term class is used in England
you can see that it is almost interchangable with what you refer to as caste. America was in many ways founded to get away from the class structure of British society. For Americans (and especially GOP) politicians to embrace the idea that we need to divided Americans into classes and then pander to them goes against what America is suppose to be about. I wish that whenever a GOP politician is asked about the Middle Class he would respond by saying the only class we should have in this country is the American Class. That our government policies should be about helping everyone get the opportunity to pursue life, liberty and happiness regardless of their current income level.

[ Parent ]
This is getting off track
My only point in this discussion was that the phrases "middle class" and "middle income" mean the same thing.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Eh, the term "middle class" is meaningless now
considering something like 80% of people identify as middle class, and essentially all the rest consider themselves "working class". It's just an empty phrase pols use to say that they're in touch with the common man.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
No.
If the phrase middle class has cultural implications, it has cultural implications stemming that stem from being middle income. There's no one definition of being middle class, it doesn't imply anything, other than the social status that comes with being middle income, which can by anything or nothing. If you say "middle income" those same implications exist, because "class" only denotes some sort of social or cultural implication that is based on wealth or income, so using the word income instead changes nothing.

(by the way, I'm well aware of the Marxist definition of class struggle. ;-) I was just speaking ((typing?)) in the cultural context, so to speak, which I hope I can be forgiven for.)

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Personally I find that really annoying
Like it or not,"middle class" is the phrase that most people use in this country.  When Romney went out of his way to avoid it, using "middle income" instead, it came across, to me anyway, as very awkward and as though he was trying to hide something.  Especially after he told George Stephanopoulos that "middle income is $200,000 to $250,000."  The median household income is around 50k, for reference.  

To avoid the "class warfare" trap of the Left you need to explain how your policies will help ALL Americans, rather than trying to exclude some based on income level. Greater economic opportunity is good for everyone, regardless if they're currently making 10 grand a year or ten million.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
Answers~
1a). Who should run again: Koster, Hernández (CA-10), Taylor (ND-Gov), McGovern (SD-PUC), Dold, McDowell, Gekas, (VT-Lt. Gov), Mansfield (NC-Lt. Gov. D Primary), Lampson, McSally.

1b). Who should stay far away: Maldonado, Gill (D & R), Coleman (NC-Lt. Gov), West, Love, Chandler, Burkele, Berg, Berkley.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Chandler??
Who do you have in mind who could do better than Chandler in his CD? Sure, he's finished, but he'd pull 45%, any other Democrat wouldn't even reach 35.  

[ Parent ]
That's not absolutely true
We don't know what Obama got here (maybe around 40% this time?), but any named Democrat would tie that, if not outperform it. There's a former Louisville mayor (I think) who has talked about running and would certainly get in the 40s.

The question is whether Eastern Kentucky is now permanently anti-Democrat or whether it was in 2012 because Obama.


[ Parent ]
You're wrong; he shouldn't have lost to begin with
Perhaps that's unfair of me, but his campaign clearly existed in a bubble - whether or not that was entirely his fault - which prevented him from getting the help he needed. I don't think his campaign was well run, and while it's possible to purge these elements from your campaign apparatus, I think he'd be a weak candidate as a non-incumbent, even if he overhauled his team. Because what I do blame him for is running lazily, which he'll always do if think he's ahead, because Chandler just wants some government job where he can coast, and that's not going to hold KY-06.

His negatives that make him worse than generic eastern kentucky recruit are that he's a defined factor, and that defined factor lost. There's good negative material for ads (he voted for cap-and-trade and there's 2008 era video of him rather enthusiastically praising Obama.) He is not a strong fundraiser (Barr outraised him in the last two quarters) and would instantly attract national committee attention to a race Democrats might want to let languish below the radar for a while. His profile as a former congressman is not great.

But I do think it's well within reach for Democrats in 2014. Democrats most likely candidate is Fmr. Lexington mayor Terresa Isaac, who would be an underdog, but not significantly so. I'd give her 35/65 odds of winning. You're very wrong that a credible coal country Democrat would take only 35%.

I'd give Chandler 15/85 odds of winning.

I suppose he could work as a sacrificial lamb against McConnell (so we don't end up with Judd) but he wouldn't win. Honestly, I'd prefer not to see him enter electoral politics again. I like the guy, but at his soul he's a bland government apparatchik and isn't good at running the sort of campaigns he would need to be running.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Given how close Lunsford came
Her might well have beaten McConnell in 2008. How time flies.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
NYS DA admits he was a porn star
Recently re-elected Cortland County, NY DA Mark Suben (D), aka Gus Thomas, admits he was a porn star in the 1970s after adamantly denying it durning the campaign. http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...

R - MD-7

Internet Adult Film Database page

Possibly NSFW: http://www.iafd.com/person.rme...

25, M, VA-11, moderate R

[ Parent ]
Okay, this is hilarious
He's a juggernaut in the porn industry from '72 to '74 and then seemingly retires...only to return for one film in 1987...and then another one in 1995. By that last one, he must've been in his 40s. :/

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Not my area of expertise
But apparently those last 2 are compilations, so there wouldn't have been new filming.

25, M, VA-11, moderate R

[ Parent ]
Answer to question #2
I think John Q should make another run in 2014. He got sandbagged in the primary. But its only a matter of time before Congressman Grayson makes an ass out of himself. John Q could beat him in 2014.

Republicans lost every single race decided after election day
The odds of every close race going against us is really long.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I'm not surprised
Most of the uncounted votes in AZ are provisional ballots and absentee ballots dropped off on election day. Those typically are Democratic voters, especially in Arizona. That's why the same thing happeend two years ago in AZ-7 and AZ-8.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Two years ago
There were 10 races undecided after election day. Each side won 5. There weren't any California races then and those, apparently, do go to Democrats.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I was referring to AZ, but as you point out its the same thing in CA
So, that right there is 6 seats (AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-9, CA-7, CA-36, and CA-52). I cannot say with any confidence what happened in NC-7, FL-18, and UT-4.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
It depends
If the odds are just Will one party win all the undecided races decided after Election day, yes I would agree it would be very long odds.

But if it were, will one party who leads in all the undecided races win all of those, I think the odds would be much shorter and a more common occurance.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Agreed
You have to look at them on an individual basis.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Steve Woods (I) running for Governor of Maine
More on NY SD46 race
According to a blog in the Schenectady Daily Gazette there are 9208 absentee ballots and 2649 affidavit ballots in the NY SD46 race (key to control of the NY State Senate). The Rep, Amedore has a 54 vote lead. Data from 2 of the 5 counties(Albany and Montgomery) in the district, indicate that about 40% of the affidavit ballots are being thrown out, which is good news for the Reps.  Another county, Schenectady, reports that over 95% of the absentee ballots are being accepted.  Over half of absentee and affidavit ballots come from Ulster and Albany Counties, which Tkaczyk (Dem)won on election day, which is good news for the Dems (figures do not include ballots thrown out).  On the other hand, there are over 300 more absentee ballots from parties that support the Republican Amedore (Repub,Conserv, Indep) compared to parties that support Tkaczyk (Democ,Green, WorkFam). Keep in mind however, there are around 2000 ballots from unaffiliated voters.  Watch for many of these ballots to be contested by lawyers when the counting begins on Monday.    

Answers
1. Run again: Dold, McSally
  Stay away: Love, Akin, Mourdock, Berg, Rehberg

2. Emphasize: Fiscal issues, which is what any legislative body deals with, oh, ~90% of the time.
  De-emphasize: Social issues, looking at how some of the districts we hold in both Minnesota and North Carolina voted on those states' SSM bans, I'm thinking that SSM and a few other social issues are going to quickly become losers for us.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


NC-7
Now that Mike McIntyre got more votes after the final totals were submitted yesterday, should David Rouzer make another run for the seat. (Rouzer can call for a recount but it's very unlikely to change the outcome.) I don't think he should because of the lackluster way in which he campaigned and maybe getting a candidate from another part of the district would be better. Who would you want to see run against McIntyre in 2014?

My opinion
Any one of the five Republican mayors who endorsed McIntyre in this year's election would be the toughest opponent I can think of if he or she were persuaded to run against him in 2014.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Five Republican mayors for McIntyre
Names/cities?

[ Parent ]
I'm skeptical of any Republican running against a Democrat they endorsed during the previous cycle
http://watchdogs.blogs.starnew...

Teachey-Lois McCartney
Carolina Shores-Walter Goodenough
Clarkton-Arthur Whedbee
Dublin-Horace Wyatt
Carolina Beach-Ray Rothrock  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Mayors
http://watchdogs.blogs.starnew...
Clarkton-Arthur Whedbee
Dublin-Horace Wyatt
Carolina Shores-Walter Goodenough
Wallace-Charles Farrior
Carolina Beach-Ray Rothrock

I doubt any of them would run against McIntyre after endorsing him. Maybe former state representative Danny McComas (represented the area a long time, has a lot of business experience, and now is Chairman of the North Carolina Ports Authority) or state senator Thom Goolsby (for having run many campaigns, although hardly any were successes, and being able to self-fund) would be possible candidates. I'm sure other state senators since the 2010 election all the senators in the district are Republican, state representatives, local elected officials, or successful businessmen might consider running for the seat.


[ Parent ]
Yep
Persuading them probably would be tough, but if so, they could say: 'I supported Mike McIntyre because he said he'd be a [fill in the blank] congressman for our district, but he's let us down. Instead, he's [fill in the blank, liberal, liberal, fill in the blank].

Danny McComas was appointed by Perdue. That'll be a problem for him in a primary, though probably not any more so than endorsing McIntyre would be for the aforementioned mayors.

Thom Goolsby is definitely a viable idea. If he's going to run then he'll want to do it before Wilmington Mayor Bill Saffo is persuaded to challenge for his seat in the legislature (as has been rumored).

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
BTW
Keep in mind that beating Mike McIntyre will mean persuading voters who are otherwise voting Republican that they voted wrong. What I'm saying is that someone who can basically say to those voters 'I was one of you, but I'm not anymore, and here's why' would be most likely to reach them.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Just would like to beat the dead horse...
But Ilario Pantano would never be accused of being a lackluster campaigner. Still think Pantano losing the primary cost the GOP this seat.

[ Parent ]
Binders full of oppo research
Yes, binders (plural), according to Dem friends in the know. That's all I'll say.

[ Parent ]
Binders
Do any of these binders contain women?  The Big Dog wants to know.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
well
It's seems doubtful that new binders would have been created in the past 2 years.  Why wouldn't they have used the best oppo they had in 2010?  Answer:  They did.  Dems really hate guys like West and Pantano.  So of course they are going to say they have a lot of oppo on him.  The research is the same rehashed stories we've seen about his deployment.  Again, if there was more, ask your Dem friends why they didn't already use it.

[ Parent ]
Why? (Pantano oppo file)

Pantano wasn't even seen as a serious challenger in McIntyre's safe district. Remember how McIntyre won by 8 points? Pantano was only seen as marginally competitive towards the very end.

If your district is pretty much safe (which it was for McIntyre) and your opponent isn't seen as particularly serious, why would you go all out to assemble a ridiculously thorough opposition file? Also, even if McIntyre's team had a thick opposition research file, it had no reason to go nuclear in that district.

My guess is that once the new 58% McCain district (as opposed to the old 52% McCain district) came out, NC Democrats and Mike McIntyre's campaign realized they had to take Pantano seriously and then started assembling the file.



[ Parent ]
i disagree
September had a Survey USA quasi-internal within the margin of error.  RCP had it "Toss Up".  No one had it pretty much safe.  A Congressman like McIntyre isn't stupid...if there was stuff to use, he'd use it.  The DCCC did use it.  They brought up the Iraqi deaths every time the race was mentioned.  I'm not saying that Pantano is a good candidate, but I'm sorry that I have to call BS on your Dem friends.  Trust me, if there was anything more out there, our friends in the media would have dutifully reported it a long time ago.  They hate him, too, and have loved any story they can use to show the US forces doing anything, ANYTHING bad overseas.  But bottom line, they absolutely took him seriously in 2010, they ran the stuff about Iraq, and that's part of the reason he won by 8.  But there aren't more binders of stuff that they didn't use.    

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
There were a lot of Democratic incumbents, particularly in the South, who didn't feel they were going to lose until the end of September or even later than that. McIntyre was one of them.

There were several Democratic incumbents who panicked when they saw their poll numbers plummeting that they started looking around for oppo research. Because it was late, they didn't have time to independently confirm a lot of the stuff they found. Some of it was quite serious (as we know with one race in particular) so they wanted to be sure they got every detail confirmed.

I'm not speaking for NC-07 or McIntyre, but my bet is that he had more stuff to release if he had more time. Of course, if the election had been two weeks later, he probably would have lost.  


[ Parent ]
no he wouldn't have
everyone makes this mistake.  McIntyre started to plummet because low info conservaDems started tuning in and voted for the anti-Obama guy. The national climate didn't get worse between November 2010 and December 2010.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Given one more month
Enough conservative Democrats would have left him and he would have lost. The national climate didn't get worse for Democrats between those two months because the election was already over.

[ Parent ]
Pantano
If he was such a good campaigner who supposedly had all this name rec, could bring in a ton of cash and nationalize the race, why did he lose the GOP primary to a little-known State Senator?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
NYC Council Maps!
Here's the 2nd and most likely final draft of the new NYC Council maps:
http://politicker.com/2012/11/...
Anyone want to run this through Dave's Redistricting App and do a diary on it?

2 really cool maps on the new lines
here:
http://209.156.236.68/dist/nyc...
and here:
http://www.urbanresearchmaps.o...
Have fun with it guys. Could be your last chance to play with lines until 2021!

[ Parent ]
it's not as some legislative maps were thrown out by state supreme courts
Kentucky state house is one of those cases that used the old map based on 2000 census as an interim map for 2012 elections and needs redrawn for 2014.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Texas also likely to change
All three maps they just used were interim.

Exactly what Texas maps change to will depend upon the outcome of their appeal of that section 5 case to the US Supreme Court.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
You guys know what I meant!
And I clearly said COULD BE!

[ Parent ]
Nopee
What about PA State Legislature? That'll potentially be our last chance, absent a mid-decade redistricting.

[ Parent ]
PA leg
Anyone know when the state supreme court is going to rule on the latest maps for 2014?  I know they had the hearing in September but have not heard anything since.  

[ Parent ]
MN-GOV/SEN 2014: Pawlenty not running, Paulsen/Kline leave it open
My gut tells me...
That Paulsen runs, but it will be a late 2013 announcement. He seems like someone that doesn't like campaigning for a full two years.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Paulsen!?
I've seen nothing to indicate that he'll be anything other than a House lifer. He's just way too wonky to be an executive, and I'd really prefer to not worry about finding another top-tier recruit for MN-03.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
I was referring to the senate race


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Even then
Why would Paulsen give up a safe seat for life to run in an uphill statewide race? I mean, as much as I hate to say it, Franken seems to have kept his mouth shut, and is looking really tough to beat. The only candidate who has a chance against him is Jim Ramstad, and he has shown no interest in returning to politics.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Because a senator has more power than a semi-influential member of the house
Plus he's in his late 40s, which is the perfect age for a senator. Franken isn't safe, so the notion that only Ramstad can beat him is silly. Plus Paulsen only has 3 terms under his belt, so his seniority won't be the reason that holds him back from running.

Lastly, I said it was my gut feeling, even though I do want him to run.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Paulsen would be strong
But unless he sees weakness, he likely won't go for it. Remember, the DFL is on a 13-1 stretch in statewide elections (Only Mike Hatch lost in a narrow race after calling a Reporter a "whore" on a recorded phone call, so it isn't like Republicans are anywhere near even money in the state, generically speaking. If Franken causes a stir, or his popularity drops, Paulsen will smell blood in the water and jump in. But if Franken is sitting at 50%+ approval and still leading in polling by double digits, Paulsen will stay put.

One candidate that no one here has mentioned is John Kriesel. I am not sure he could ever survive a nomination process at a convention, but if the rules change to a non-binding endorsement, he has a shot. And if he gets on the ballot statewide, he would be formidable.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Erik Paulsen
Yes, Paulsen is just shaking with excitement to jump head first into a buzz saw of a race. Franken may be liberal, but he's done nothing particularly offensive in office yet to moderate voters. Minnesota may be a low PVI state, but our ceiling is usually below 50. That's why we often need some goofy third party candidate to spoil races for us there.

[ Parent ]
I disagree on Paulsen
He is extremely ambitious. He was elected to the House at age 30, he was in leadership before he was 40, and at the first chance he jumped at a congressional run. He wants to move up, but he won't do it unless he is certain he wan win.

And Paulsen was THE recruit for MN-3 in 08. The Republican bench isn't non-existent in the district, but the Republicans in the district are highly polarizing and in safely Republican seats.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Kline leaves it open?
I would be shocked, absolutely shocked if be gave up his tenure and chairmanship in the House to be a freshman in the Senate. However, if the GOP holds true on the 3-term rule, he may not be in line for another chairmanship in 2015. I could see an unlikely scenario where he runs for governor to put a capstone on his political career if he REALLY doesn't like what the Democrats do with their first control of the state in decades. Kline would be strong statewide, but he really didn't do all that well against Obermueller this year, considering his status and fundraising advantages. He may be so rusty with not having a close race in many years, that he falls on his face statewide. Also, if Dayton maintains his approval ratings, he isn't going to lose. For all of his faults, Dayton in 3-0 in statewide elections lifetime.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Minnesota in the 1990s
Did 2 and 6 flop numbers in the 2000 redistricting? I noticed that Kline lost twice to this guy named Bill Luther in 1998 and 2000 before knocking him off in 2002 and the Democrats were able to hold both suburban districts for most of the decade.

This Luther guy was able to win MN-06 in 1994 when Rod Grams vacated it.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Luther is quite the politician
You must remember that the districts looked quite different pre-2002. There were 4 outstate districts in a 4-corners configuration. In 02, the population shifted such that it required 4.5 metro districts. So they shifted it to 5 metro districts but put some rural areas into the suburban districts 2 and 6 which game us the 3 rural district map we have had for the last decade.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
MN 1990s Map
In addition to what OGGoldy said above, it is important to note that Minnesota's Congressional and Legislative maps based on the 1990 census did not take effect until 1994, so the MN-06 that Bill Luther won was not the same MN-06 that Rod Grams had won.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yes.
It should be noted that Minnesota from early 1990 until ~early 1994 was a GIANT mess. There was a very nasty senate race where one Jewish candidate called his opponent a "bad Jew". There was a gubernatorial candidate that turned out to be a pedophile 2 weeks before the election. There was a candidate swap for governor 6 days before the election. There were 3 speakers of the House, none of whom got along with the incumbent governor, at all. It really was a giant mess, and it did end up that the 1990s map was not actually implemented until 1993 after the Minnesota Supreme Court stepped in for the second time.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
MS-SEN
Has Cochran talked about running again?

If he does retire, do Childers or Taylor run?  What about for Republicans?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


I doubt they run
I would think Jim Hood would be Democrats top choice. For the GOP, I read recently that Gregg Harper left a leadership race to head a committee, so perhaps that could be an indication that he may run. Also, it seems like Tate Reeves is quite ambitious, so he might go for it as well.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Here's a recent article that speculates and drops a lot of names
http://www.clarionledger.com/a...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
RSC and the Youth Vote
Wow, the RSC got it right on this issue in terms of expanding our appeal among the youth vote, then immediately retract due to pressure from Hollywood liberals who have never and will never donate to us or even vote for us. It's just astounding that they bow to this kind of pressure when the retraction makes us look bad, and does nothing in terms of expanding our appeal to young voters. If they have any sense, or care about the future of the party, they should immediately retract their retraction.

http://www.techdirt.com/articl...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


Mentions that Guinta my run for something but Bass is done with politics


[ Parent ]
Barber up by 2,371
West trails by an additional 200 votes after the recount.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

I wonder
How McSally would've done if she had some of the $17,078,485 that was contributed to West's campaign fund.

That's about how much was spent on the GOP's lost seats in California and Illinois, combined ($17,517,421).

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
I wonder if she
would of won AZ2 from 2 years ago?  I believe this district was made bit more Democrat due to so called unpartial redistricting,

Why don't Republicans in AZ put something on ballot about redistricting??


[ Parent ]
NYC-Mayor: Stringer out, will run for City Comptroller instead
http://politicker.com/2012/11/...

Obviously a wise move, given he'll probably cruise through the comptroller's race, whereas he wouldn't have had a prayer vs. Quinn and Thompson. That being said, if Stringer's departure actually helps anyone, it's probably De Blasio, who's counting on every white progressive possible to emerge a factor in this. (Quinn has the LGBT vote + feminists + Bloomberg/Koch wing, with Thompson milking blacks and Hispanics as likely the race's only formidable minority candidate.)

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Well, I'm glad he'll be elected in some capacity.
Given how young he is, it's not like this was his last chance to be mayor.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I'm really enjoying the political calm
Are you too?  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Me too nt


28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
LA Mayor: Kevin James (R) gets a SuperPAC
GOP strategist Fred Davis aims to raise $4M for the federal prosecutor and talk show host. Given Davis's prior efforts, I don't know whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. http://www.latimes.com/news/lo...

R - MD-7

For a second there
I thought this was refering to the King of Queens.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
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