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Political Roundup for November 20, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EST


It seems like those crazy pols have already packed up for Thanksgiving, so today's roundup is a little thin. Never fear: Wednesday and Friday are two of the best days of year if you're a politician who has to drop bad news.

Congress

GA-Sen: Is Saxby Chambliss the Republican Senator most vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2014? Talk seems to be centering on Rep. Tom Price, who recently lost a House leadership bid and is more palatable to the state's grassroots than the incumbent.

MA-Sen: John Kerry sounds like a definite maybe for eiher State or Defense. His future may depend on that of Susan Rice, who sounds like Obama's preferred SoS pick but has come out of the Benghazi affair looking less-than-ideal.

More MA-Sen: And in the event Kerry is tapped, Bawney Fwank won't be wunning in the special. (Sorry, folks, but I don't know how many more chances I'll have to lampoon Frank.) One Congressman has expressed interest, though: Mike Capuano, who lost the 2009 primary to Martha Coakley.

KY-06: The ink isn't even dry on Andy Barr's new business cards yet, and one Democrat is already mulling a run against him: former Lexington Mayor Teresa Isaac.

Governor

FL-Gov: The FLGOP is already working to take any "surprise" out of Charlie Crist's announcement sometime next year that he'll run for Governor as a Democrat.

MA-Gov: Eternal Rep. Ed Markey (19 terms and counting, but only 66 years old) is thinking about running for Governor in 2014. It makes little sense, unless Markey is doubtful that Democrats can take back the House this decade and doesn't want to finish his career in the minority. His new 5th district is probably the best base in the state in a Democratic primary, and the three candidates all but certain to run (Dems Tim Murray and Steve Grossman, and GOPer Charlie Baker) are nothing special.

States

Arizona: The Republican court challenge to the Mathismander is going forward. Even if it succeeds, however, it seems that all the GOP can accomplish is reducing population deviation between districts...which means we'll probably end up with only a slightly modified map.

Louisiana: Once a Democratic bastion, the state now boasts three Republicans in national positions: RGA Chair Bobby Jindal. RSC Chair Steve Scalise, and RNC Vice Chair Roger Villare.
BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for November 20, 2012
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Political Roundup for November 20, 2012 | 88 comments
Massachusetts
MA5; No Republican could win this seat, so I doubt Charlie Baker would run, as it was a D+16 seat and probably didn't change much after 2012.

MA-Sen; I cannot see how Scott Brown passes on this. He would be favored in both the special and the midterm. He's only doomed in a presidential year with bad performance from the top of the ticket. I looked at the numbers and had Romney gotten up to around 41% (from 38%), Brown would have essentially been in a 50-50 race.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Brown for Gov.
I spoke with a old co-worker this past weekend who did advance on both Brown Senate campaigns and he said the campaign organization has been told to stay together and keep their powder dry...but that they expect him to run for Gov, not Senate...no matter what happens with Kerry.

Basically they think he'll always be "on the spot" for Nationals GOP positions, no matter if he opposes them or not "guilty-by-association" is apparently the post-election catch phrase. As Gov (they believe) he can sidestep a lot of those issues and focus on local issues in a non-partisan manner.

That said I bet there is a TON of pressure (both external and ego-wise) to run in another special...

[ Parent ]
MA-05
No one's saying we could win that seat in any scenario; BostonPatriot was saying that Baker will run for Governor, not MA-05. He lives in Swampscott in MA-06, regardless.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
I guess I wasn't fully awake yet, lol


28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Marzilli for Congress!
There's a scenario we could win it.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
SC results by congressional district
No surprise here. The state barely swung. Romney made some reasonable gains in Charleston, Horry, Beaufort, and lost a bit in rural counties.

SC-01: Romney 60.46% / Obama 37.78%
SC-02: Romney 60.93% / Obama 37.59%
SC-03: Romney 64.71% / Obama 33.77%
SC-04: Romney 63.29% / Obama 34.96%
SC-05: Romney 55.87% / Obama 42.81%
SC-06: Obama 68.42% / Romney 30.45%
SC-07: Romney 55.17% / Obama 43.78%

26, R, PA-01.



SC-05 and SC-07
The incumbents slightly outperformed Romney (1-2% each) in SC-01, Sc-03, and SC-04. However, Mulvaney and Rice almost exactly matched Romney. Both underperformed him very, very slightly. Once those two get entrenched, they'll probably start overperforming by a point or two. Still, it scares me a bit that if the Dems put up Some Dudes in SC-05 and SC-07, they'll probably break 40% in each every time.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
High Floor Low Ceiling.
Both of those districts have substantial black populations (most of the 2-VRA maps of SC have the 2nd black district based there) who are reliably Dem up and down ballot.  The problem is finding the last 5% between 45% and 50%, which the Democrats will have a very difficult time of doing.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree.
I'm just making the point that it's a pretty thin, if strong, wall. I think that it'll hold for a long time. It's just something that shouldn't be forgotten, lest a member get lazy about campaigning.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
SC 5 & 7
Both of those districts are approx 30% AA. In a presidential year a some dude D is going to have a floor of 40% plus. In a midterm not so much. It looks scary on paper, but they are relatively secure holds.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Bishop and Chaffetz got greedy
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/p...

Documents, and interviews, say Bishop and Chaffetz pushed GOP legislators to make their conservative districts even more safe - although Bishop disputes that - thus making other districts more competitive. It could have made the difference in the newly created 4th Congressional District, where Matheson holds a slim 2,646-vote lead over Republican Mia Love before the final tally, including late absentee and provisional ballots, is announced Tuesday.

Facepalm.

26, R, PA-01.



I think people are reading this wrong
Or paying attention to the wrong thing. The Mormon establishment is Republican-leaning, but it takes care of its own, not the Republican party, and it is not, like some Evangelical Churches, a force for die-hard conservatism. It supports immigration reform, on occasion higher taxes. Its elite is also very internationalist given both the mission structure, and the economic reach of its membership.

In effect, the Tea Party is not a great match for it. There is a reason that most of the more die-hard conservatives in Utah are converts(Mia Love, Jason Chaffetz, Mike Lee is an exception), and also a reason that virtually the entire Utah elite and Mormon power structure within Utah except for the Romney's pretty much all supported Matheson.

There is no reason to suppose that these same supporters played no role in redistricting, if not to explicitly save Matheson, then to ensure that at least two of the seats were competitive enough that he would have had a "fighting chance" and they could play a decisive role in the outcome.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Cuomo and the NY state senate
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Rand Paul: I want to be part of national debate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

He's surely not one to beat around the bushes ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

Not sure that quote is good way to become part of it


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
NC-7, NC-LG
http://atr.rollcall.com/north-...
Today, David Rouzer requested a recount in the NC-7 race. Blue Dog Mike McIntyre will almost surely prevail after it's concluded.

http://www.charlotteobserver.c...
Republican Dan Forest became the lieutenant governor-elect yesterday when Democrat Linda Coleman conceded and didn't call for a recount.

TN-Sen
Recently, there's been talk of a serious primary challenge to Lamar Alexander in 2014. He might decide to retire (I doubt it, though). However, a primary challenge, even from a Congressman or a Congresswoman, would probably be a fool's errand. Tennessee has semi-open primaries. Registered voters are asked which party they belong to at the polling place. The party that they declare determines whose primaries they vote in on that day. Lamar Alexander has a lot of crossover support that stems from his semi-moderate reputation and fond memories of his time as Governor back in the 80s. In 2008, he actually carried Shelby County. If it was known that he was facing a stiff primary challenge from a staunch conservative, a lot of Democrats, especially high-turnout white Democrats in the suburbs (they do exist) would vote in the Republican primary to keep him in office.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
These things are very uncertain
If the Democrats aren't challenging the seat, I would agree with you. However, if it ends up like Indiana, I can imagine Democrats pushing their voters to beat Alexander in a primary.

My point was that it is better for him to retire and for us to get an A level recruit, rather than him finding himself in a Lugar-like situation and us having to fight like hell just to keep what should have been a safe seat.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Who would the Democrats get to run that could set up such a situation?
The only person that I can think of is Bredesen. Nashville Mayor Karl Dean has popularity problems. Memphis Mayor A.C. Wharton is popular, but doesn't seem to have ambitions beyond the mayor's office. Chattanooga Mayor Ron Littlefield might actually lose this year. Democrats in the state legislature continue to drop like flies.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
It's too early to be confident
It may be any of the folks you mentioned, or it could be an unelected candidate that shows up out of the blue.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
especially for the incumbent
granted the only way for Alexander to lose if he runs is to not take his opponent seriously, but that just happened to Lugar

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
the marriage gap in 1 graph
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-m4r9...

Romney's share of the vote:

Single men: 39.4%
Married men: 58.0%

Single women: 31.1%
Married women: 55.4%

Single white women: 44.3%
Married white women: 61.9%

Single white men: 50.6%
Married white men: 65.0%

Single other races: 28.4%
Married other races: 47.5%

Singles: 35.2%
Marrieds: 56.6%

Some of the gaps are staggering.



26, R, PA-01.



is there a break down on the married other races?
Like married Hispanic / married Asian / married AA?

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
There is for Hispanics
Blacks I assume are almost entirely uniform, seeing as Romney got 3% overall and 2.4% of "Single Black Women".

Hispanics are 20.5% Single, 34.9% Married

Asians are part of (and the most significant component of) the "Other" races

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Yep
Those with a vested interest in a strong social order support conservative parties.  That is about as shocking as anything.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
UT-4; Love is closing the gap with Salt Lake still not fully reporting
@RobertGehrke: Utah Co. will have official final numbers this afternoon. They are not expected to change much. Matheson lead now at 1,450. #utpol

It looks tough, but it would sure be something if she can pull it off.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

I meant to post this...
@RobertGehrke: We've got almost-final numbers from Utah County: Mia Love 19,349 vs. Jim Matheson 7,532. Love cuts 1,193 votes from Matheson lead. #utpol

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Utah county
That's where BYU is, it may be the reddest urban county in the nation. When Salt Lake county reports, Matheson will probably gain a bunch of votes.

43, Dem-leaning Ind, CA-6 (old CA-5)
[ Parent ]
Final result: Love down by 768
She actually cut into Matheson's lead by over 200 votes with Salt Lake County's remaining ballots.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
This just goes to show how well Mathenson does in Utah
Obama got 9.8% in the whole county, and the parts in UT-4 are actually more Conservative than the county as a whole.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Amusing poll from PoliticsPA
Asking which PA Congressman will be most vulnerable in 2014 is like asking which Maryland Congressman is most vulnerable in 2014. Hint: none of them.

http://www.politicspa.com/who-...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

I could see PA-12 and MD-6 being competitive
Assuming Altmire runs and perhaps Mooney for the GOP.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Alex Mooney
The same guy who lost his State Senate seat in 2010?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
I'm going off of every roll call/national journal article that always mentions him


28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
yes
But he lost by less than the Governor-elect of New Hampshire...

Seriously, Frederick County party politics are superstrange (he was running against the former 4 term/16 year Frederick Mayor who hadn't been in office in 20 years whose son is the REPUBLICAN Frederick Board of County Comm.)
That loss should not be indicative of his ability to win MD-6.

[ Parent ]
MD-2 is more likely
If we get a good candidate in an open seat, R wave midterm.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
At this point
Republicans could probably go 13-5 in a fairly-drawn map.  The three Democratic incumbents with actual-crossover appeal are all gone, and the Democratic party in SWPA is clearly on the decline.

Hell, Cartwright's district could potentially be broken up and won if PA Republicans were interested in taking more risks.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Yes
I suspect the Republicans could get 12-6 with a fairly drawn map barring a 2006 style implosion and 13-5 in a great year.

I suspect come 2020 if the Republicans control the process PA-17 will be dismantled.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
well,
They can pull Schuylkill out and put Reading in. Hopefully 6, 7, 8 can be cleaned up a tad. 14 should be drawn to take in areas outside Allegheny.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
PA is projected at -1
Of course, these projections are next to useless, but:

NY: -1
RI: -1
WV: -1
PA: -1
OH: -1
MI: -1
IL: -1
MN: -1
FL: +1
TX: +3
CA: +1
CO: +1
OR: +1
NC: +1

The ones I consider interesting are MI (will Detroit really collapse enough to eliminate Sander Levin), CO (2-6 if they get a trifecta, probably 4-4 otherwise).

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
I could see VA as +1 before CA
Imperial DC is driving growth in NOVA & Cali will go broke before decades end  
[ Parent ]
Maybe
California has got a very large natural-born Hispanic population that is booming and is also seeing increasing rates of Asian immigration that should pick up even more once the recession is over.  Whether or not they gain or lose seats really depends on how well the state government fares over the next 8 years.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
California
Considering the absolutely anemic growth we've seen from the estimates of growth between 2010-2011, it does not appear that California is likely to gain a seat, and if our worst fears are realized with the Democratic supermajority, California will be in serious danger of losing seats.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
agreed
California's priority number for its last seat it kept isn't that many spots lower than the last one either. (The priority number for gaining a seat isn't that many spots higher either.)
California pulled a rabbit out just to stay exactly even in seat count.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
RI will assuredly lose one
But I'd be surprised if MT doesn't gain one.  They'll likely both be well over 1m people at that point, and I think MT will grow decently in the next ten years.  Course PR could throw a wrench into the mix if they become #51 in the next ten years, which is not impossible.
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking that
Montana doesn't look likely to cross what the new threshold will be for a second seat by 2020; but may do so by 2030.

I think if PR is admitted they are likely to increase the house size by five seats in the enabling legislation not only for the rest of the decade but until some future congress changes the number.
This would reduce but not eliminate all side effects (see the Oklahoma paradox)



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I also think some state will lose 2 seats and not just 1
Either New York or PA

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Would PA-14 be a possible target?
Romney was the first Republican since Hoover to win the combined vote of Allegheny county and all 4 counties that border it.  I know local Democrats usually over-perform in SWPA, but given the region's right-ward trend we might want to consider it for 2020.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Absolutely not
Romney probably ended up in the low-to-mid 30% range in PA-14. We're not winning that seat this decade in any situation. There are too many minorities, union members, Jewish voters (think ultra-Democratic Squirrel Hill), and yuppies in that seat to win.

If you're referring to carving Pittsburgh up, perhaps that could work come 2031. It'd be a colossal risk in 2021.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
2031
It is too risky at this point to crack PA-14 and will still be too risky come 2021.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking that
since its a given the PA is going to lose at least one seat, that assuming the current split is still in effect following 2020 election and have the trifecta that one of the Democratic vote sinks should be collapsed.

It is looking though like if PA loses two seats next cycle and not just one, the second abolished seat will need to come from Republicans to avoid a dummymander.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
NYC mayoral candidates try to outgun one another on Israel
http://politicker.com/2012/11/...

I keep hearing Thompson's made some surprising inroads within the Jewish community. I know he was on Dov Hikind's program a few nights back.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Tisei leaves door open to MA-Sen if Brown passes
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

I think I'd prefer a Tierney rematch; Tisei almost surely would've triumphed without Obama-Romney atop the ticket. And if Brown indeed surprisingly passes on a Senate special, I'd rather see Baker give it a try and, if not him, Weld attempt a comeback. Only after that would I give Tisei the green light.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Tisei's beach ad tells me he's NRFPT
The Dem statewide candidate is going to be stronger than Tierney in a constituency about 4-5% more Dems. I might want Rich Dover Dude to take a fresh shot over Tisei  
[ Parent ]
meh
New England is House money territory. Just keep the NRCC far far away from that money pit and he can do what he likes.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
MA-06: Richard Tisei's future
This does not sound like a man who's done with politics. I personally think that if Scott Brown runs for governor, Richard Tisei runs again against John Tierney. While Tierney's battle wounds will have somewhat healed, Brown's tide atop of the ticket in 2014 will be a lot more formidable for a successful bid for the 6th district than Obama's tide in 2012 was.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Weld would be a disaster
The Weld/Cellucci Administrations ended in an orgy of corruption and scandals, which while having more to do with Cellucci and Swift than Weld, also had a lot to do with the absolute indifference with which Weld approached the job in his last 18 months. His flaky behavior, leaving the state, moving to New York, making plans to run for Senate/Governor then losing make him look weird, and he has flipped flopped on Gay Marriage four times and counting. Not to mention his coalition no longer exists and can no longer exist as long as he is a Republican. His behavior reinforces the out-of-touch rich WASP dabbling in politics image which always stuck to him, except Massachusetts is in a different place now.

Dan Winslow would be far stronger candidate,as would someone like Bruce Tarr or a random businessman.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Weld's had a tough time personally since the divorce
The corruption is not so much Weld's fault, as it is Cellucci and Swift. But that's what happens when you leave State Senators in power whom are looking to cash in on their fifteen minutes of glory.

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
VA-Gov: Warner won't run
http://hamptonroads.com/2012/1...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
The rumor mill on Warner
I've been hearing that there's a rather small but real chance he calls it quits in 2014 thanks to hating Harry Reid with a flaming passion. Warner's legitimately a moderate at heart like Snowe was and I can see a scenario where he just goes back to the Virginia business community...


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Extreme speculation
Warner chucks the Senate as dysfunctional; and runs for President on a Bloomberg backed "pragmatism" ticket  
[ Parent ]
Probably not Bloomberg
He probably would want an actual Moderate R instead of the D-turned-R to run for NYC mayor-turned I to be less partisan.  Snowe herself would actually be a great candidate if she wanted it.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Nah, I think he is still going for Governor
He was just persuaded to go for it in 2017 instead of next year.

What people miss is that while Warner may have issues with the national party and be a moderate, he all but built the current Virginia Democratic Party, and he feels a very strong sense of responsibility for it. Its rapidly falling apart, and for Warner, the question he likely asked himself was what the best way to help it was.

The obvious answer is 2017. Because of the geography of the state, Democrats must have a seat at the redistricting table in 2021 in order to avoid the oblivion they now face in the House of Delegates and the Congressional Delegation(where they clearly won the popular vote this year). Warner can ensure they have that by running in 2017.

Warner will not, under any circumstances do anything that harms the Virginia Democratic party no matter what he thinks of Obama or Harry Reid. He loathes  Cuccinelli and other members of the "Conservative" wing of the VA Republican party, and he will not hand the state over to them.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Big risk
By then his "brand" may have gone stale. He's not gonna be recharged by a 2014 coronation and by '17 he'll be out of the Governor's office for 12 years; which is a long time in a growing place like VA  
[ Parent ]
He is a Senator, and will be one until 2017
Assuming he wins in 2014.

Reelection in 2014 is not that much of a worse bet than running for Governor next year. Virginia's off-year electorate is very Red compared to its electorate even in mid-terms, and neither of his potential opponents would be walkovers. Throw in the habit of kicking the party with the Governor's mansion in the balls by the VA electorate, and its not clearly a bad idea.

This way there is at least a 50% chance he causes McDonnell to pass on 2014, giving himself a genuine free-ride, and 2017 should be much easier than 2013. Either Hillary is President, or there is a Republican in office.

In terms of challenge, 2013 is likely harder than 2014 unless McDonnell runs, and then the difference is not as large as it might be suspected. And 2017 is a gimme either way.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Would that work?
Because I could see Republicans just waiting his term out.  The governor elected in 2021 would be seated in January 2022, which I think is before the redistricting deadline in the state.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Legislative Redistricting
Remember there are Legislative elections in 2021. If he can bring in an LG who can win in 2021, he guarantee they hold a seat going into the congressional redistricting and either way they will still have say in the legislative lines.

And really, that means court-maps for both chambers because he would have no incentive to deal with the GOP holding both,

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Virginia court map isn't a bit deal
Unless it gains a seat. At 12 seats things tend to get really, really dicey both around Richmond and in Fairfax.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
I think Warner, and VA Democrats
Are far more concerned about a GOP Gerrymander of the Legislature, which would lock them into close to 2/3rds majorities, than they are with 1-2 Congressional seats. Whoever Warner's successor is in 2021(if he wins) will be play hardball, as will Warner, because they have nothing to lose, but the real issue is getting maps under which he Democrats can be competitive for control of Richmond.


25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
This doesn't make sense to me
because the fact is he's passing up a very strong opportunity to grow a bench this year. Warner running for Governor would've in all likelihood brought in LG Armstrong/Northam/whatever and AG Herring... all of whom would be front-runners in 2017 over a relatively no-name Republican.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Actually
If he really wanted to help his party, he'd run for Lt. Governor instead.  Not only would he cakewalk into the position (giving Democrats control of the State Senate again), but would also be able to help propel a favored candidate into the Governor's mansion with whatever the up-ballot equivalent of "coat-tails" are.  He's also make himself the immediate front-runner for 2017 as well.

Thing is he'd have to be willing to eat a huge blow to his ego to do it, as he'd be downgrading an office.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Err...what?
This makes absolutely no sense. Why would Warner wait, when he'd be all-but-certain to win in 2013, barring an Obama implosion? If anything, this indicates Warner's either running for reelection and looking to be a lifer in the senate, or running for President in 2016 as the DLC Democrat. And if Cuomo doesn't run, Warner could have the moderate terf all to himself.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
No Reelection
So its either 2013 or 2017

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I know that, but it still doesn't make sense.
Warner could win handily against Cuccinelli, and would probably still be better than even against Bowling. He'd likely bring an LG and an Attorney General along with him, either of whom would be a very good bet in 2017. If he's not running for governor now, then being governor of Virginia isn't in his long-term plans either.
Warner wants to be president, and his best chance to do that is either run and win in 2014, or retire in 2014 and immediately start campaigning for it.

And the chances of a successful Hilary presidential candidacy are probably about 20% at this point. It'll be people like Warner, O'Malley, Cuomo, Hickenlooper and Schweizer, with maybe Shumlin trying to recreate the 2004 Vermont progressive magic. I think, barring a Cuomo run, Warner's got better than even odds of being the nominee.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Really?
I don't think he has a chance at 2016.  Unless Obama implodes Bush-style, I don't see any way a Moderate Democrat wins the nomination against a Liberal Darling.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Cross that VA-Seat of the list
barring something unforseeable, the NRSC shouldn't waste a dime there.

However, it's good news for the RGA, as they might be able to hold on to their whopping 30 Governors' mansions once 2013 is all said and done.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Why Not?
Its not like Kaine won by a large margin or anything, and I'm pretty sure that 2014 is going to be a much more favorable political climate for us than 2012 was.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Warner is no Kaine
Doesn't Warner command insane favorability ratings?  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
I thought we were talking about if he retired
Yeah, if Warner runs for re-election, then it'd be an uphill race at best even with McDonnell.  Though if it was open there's no reason the GOP shouldn't contest it.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Exactly
If McDonnell runs it could be a real barn burner of a race. Nobody in a swing state like VA is unbeatable.  
[ Parent ]
Kaine won by 6
Thats quite a good margin in a closely contested Senate race. Allen won by 4 in 2000, Webb of course won by .3%, and John Warner only managed 6% against Mark Warner in 1996.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Obama coat-tails.
It's probably impossible to over-estimate how much of Cain's margin came from Obama turn-out in Northern Virginia. I doubt he ever gets that again, and really really doubt he does it in 2018. Also, compared to Warner's crushing 2008 victory I'm not sure it's that impressive.

Warner is absolutely a stronger candidate than Cain in every way. If he runs again in 2014, only McDonnell has a chance of beating him. Because it's also worth keeping in mind that McDonnell is far and away a better candidate than Allen.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Kaine
Outperformed the President.

2018 will be a midterm so I doubt he can pull out quite that NoVA turnout you are right, but as Warner 01, Kaine 05, Webb 06 proved, Democrats can still win in off cycles in VA.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
This is true
I said from the beginning Allen couldn't win, even if Romney won the state. The GOP's fascination with nominating past losers is definitely curious...
[ Parent ]
One loss does not kill a political career
Obama lost a primary for congress. Clinton lost his governorship, John Kline was a 2-time loser before winning, and Peterson was a 3-time loser before he got his seat in the same state. George W. Bush lost his first election ever. One loss isn't the end of the world for a politician.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
The list goes on, even at the presidential level
Jackson, Cleveland, Nixon, Reagan, George H.W. Bush...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
RIP Warren Rudman
http://www.usatoday.com/story/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Minnesota legislature
Speaker-elect Paul Thissen (DFL-Minneapolis) picks chairs in the House. To no one's surprise, the chairs are dominated by Minneapolis and St. Paul representatives.
http://www.minnpost.com/politi...

Senate Majority Leader-elect Tom Bakk (DFL-Cook) has also selected the chairs, and to no one's surprise, it is dominated by outstate senators, particularly ones from Northern Minnesota
http://www.minnpost.com/politi...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Political Roundup for November 20, 2012 | 88 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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