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2012 Presidency vs. House Vote

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 15:25:39 PM EST


"a realignment doesn't take midterm elections off."

Left Coast Libertarian :: 2012 Presidency vs. House Vote
The Presidential vote can provide a nice piece of insight into the national landscape and even on a local level. The problem with putting too much faith in these numbers is that they are heavily influence by the two candidates who ran for President. A great candidate/campaign or a bad one will skew the results. And we know that neither of those guys will be running for congress any time soon.

The House vote provides a better insight, although it's not perfect. There are districts where one party isn't trying or an incumbent has huge crossover support. We have 6 districts with two Democrats 2 with two Republicans, some with no major party candidate, and 6 where the vote wasn't even counted.

Since we get that on both sides some of these issues cancel each other out. Here is the current national Presidential vote:

Obama 63,992,436
Romney 59,966,061
Johnson 1,236,280
Stein 445,247
Goode 117,810
Other 49,553

Now the House vote:

Democratic 56,422,275
Republican 55,397,266
Libertarian 1,321,377
Green 349,729
Constitution 85,052
Other 1,471,879

House Democrats had 7.5 million less votes than Obama, while House Republicans had 4.5 million less votes than Romney. Some of the Democratic congressional voters were Romney or third party voters. Obviously in a district like CA-30 where no Republican was on the ballot, most Romney voters had to choose between Howard Berman or Brad Sherman.

Democrats may win elections in years to come, but we don't know how well they'll hold the Obama coalition together. We do know that they had trouble holding some of them even as far as halfway down the page.  

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the current situation is relatively unique
The Democrats right now are heavily reliant on all the types of voters that dropoff in midterms. That wasn't the case 12 years ago when Bush and Gore split the youth vote relatively evenly. Heck, back in 88 seniors were the best group for Dukakis.

We're seeing a bit of ping-ponging right now because the Democrats are getting drenched with the white vote.  

28, R, PA-07.

It's odd
What you're saying makes sense, but it's odd to have a coalition of groups that are light voters. Still, Democrats had a decent year in 1998 and a great year in 2006.So I'm not certain that they are sentenced to 47-48% of the vote in mid-terms from here on.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
nothing is destiny
But think about it. The nation has realigned a lot since 2008, right now we only have a handful of split state legislatures. Look at how many southern seats and legislatures we have won for the first time since the 1800s.

After delivering big government spending in 2009, Democrats assembled a coalition of disparate groups that seek or benefit from big government spending. I don't consider such odd in the short term due to borrowing. In the long term their interests will eventually diverge due to scarcity of resources.

The Democrats picked off a lot of low hanging fruit in 2006. Now they've picked it all and they are still behind where they were in 2004, because they have collapsed in the South and the rural Midwest.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Can't that play here? Some voters know there's no reason to vote for a candidate who can't win due to district lines. Either they go with a "winner" (a mind-boggling psychosis) or don't vote for a house candidate?

Can people submit incomplete ballots?

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

house undervoting is pretty common
In 2004, House Republicans and Democrats totaled to 109 million votes or so. Bush and Kerry got over 120 million.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
California undervotes
In San Francisco County Obama beat Romney 297.7k to 46.7k. There were another 12.4k in third party votes. Democratic congressional candidates beat Republicans 279.0k to 50.2k.

In El Dorado County Romney beat obama 49.7k to 34.0k. The third party candidates got 2.2k. Tom McClintock won 50.9k to 32.1k.

In both of these examples you have districts where the candidates have no shot in congressional races. There were definitely undervotes, some of which were from the major parties. I doubt that whether the candidate had a chance played into it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
In some states
Votes cast for unopposed candidates aren't recorded, e.g. MA-01 (Neal) and MA-02 (McGovern).

I covered that
some with no major party candidate, and 6 where the vote wasn't even counted.

Democratic districts FL-24, MA-1, and MA-2 weren't counted and Republican districts KS-1, TX-3, and FL-15 weren't counted.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Indeed you did!
My mistake.

[ Parent ]
Since I wrote this
Barack Obama has added about 750k to Mitt Romney's 400k.

My House count excluded Kentucky, because I simply overlooked it and was behind. So I've added more votes. Democrats have added 1.45 million while Republicans have added 1.8 million votes. While Obama has gone up in his two party share the Democrats have gone down. They now stand 700k ahead of the Republicans at 50.3%.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


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