Another Thanksgiving Weekend Open Thread

5 GOP incumbents

GOP:

1) Kerry Bentivolio- This one's too easy.
2) Michael Grimm- I like Grimm but if any of the allegations against him are true, Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis or Richmond County D.A. Dan Donovan could take him down with CPA funding help. Malliotakis in particular seems to like Grimm, though.
3) Rodney Davis- Davis didn't run a particularly strong campaign and is still rather unknown in his district. I bet outgoing State Senator and Kane County Board Chairman-elect Chris Lauzen or another conservative power player in the state could put someone up to take on Davis in the 2014 primary. It's worth noting that Davis-backer John Shimkus would spend all of his time helping Davis, though.
4) Tim Murphy- The 18ths moved right. Evan Feinberg was a joke but perhaps a more formidable nominee could beat Murphy.
5) Gary Miller- would have to be to a popular local official. Dutton had almost no funding and Miller's win was not overwhelming.

I'll think of some Democrats as I drive to and from Evanston (sigh, soon to be in the same Congressional district as my parents' house, whooooh...).

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:14:40 PM UTC

CPA

If I'm not mistaken, one of their criteria is that the district not be a potential swing district, which several of yours are.

There's little point in targeting Miller in a primary since he'll lose the first general election against a Democrat, anyhow.

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:19:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting

If I'm not mistaken, one of their criteria is that the district not be a potential swing district, which several of yours are.

If you're correct, my district needs revising. I'll do some thinking.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 00:19:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Miller

I look at some candidates to take him on and the first name that come up Diamond Bar mayor Ling Ling Chang

29, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02
You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"
Aaron Tippin

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by: ctgrumpybear @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 18:12:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Diamond Bar

Diamond Bar is in LA County, well outside of the new CA-31. It'll be an Inland Empire Democrat who will take on Gary Miller this time.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 18:13:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Michael Ramos, the San Bernardino DA

Is someone to keep an eye on. He just won in 2010, so he may not go for a congressional run for another cycle or two.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

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by: aas34 @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 18:18:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Michael Ramos is a RINO

But that might just suit him in CA-31, as it's a Dem-leaning district.  

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by: PHL Rep @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:01:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I get that he's been called a moderate, but how is he a RINO?

I use that term sparingly for the Spectors and Crists of the party. Ramos could have been more successful as a Democrat, but has chosen the GOP for a reason. And looking all over, I cannot find his views on anything substantive for legislative issues. The only thing I could find that even demonstrates he's a moderate are his endorsements, which are all over the place.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

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by: aas34 @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 14:52:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

some people think Moderate = RINO

I personally disagree, as I like to use the actual "Republican in Name Only", meaning they have nothing in common with the Republican party but the name.  For example, anyone who endorsed or voted for Romney is not a RINO, because they did something more than just be a Republican in name only.  If you endorse Obama, then RINO could likely be apt.
But everyone is entitled to their own definitions of terms like this.

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by: pstchrisp @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 16:13:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wonder if he runs this cycle

He's been elected to his position since 2002 and endorsed Dutton. With Democrats targeting this district, he might outperform Miller in the top two, if he runs a competent campaign.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

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by: aas34 @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 15:03:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correction

Since you're referencing a primary election, it'll be an Inland Empire Republican, if any Republican wants to take on Miller, who will try to defeat him.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 18:21:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Top Two

Top Two presents the GOP with a format that means a different strategy. Republicans do very well in the June primary. Even in their best year they do far better than in November. Thus, it makes sense to target swing districts with two strong Republican candidates like they did in CA-31.

Dutton and Miller got 51.5% in the primary and Miller would likely not have matched that in the general. Getting two candidates to almost evenly split the Republican vote is difficult. Even if you have two strong candidates, both will want to maximize their vote total in case the strategy doesn't work.

The other part of the primary is one they couldn't control. There were two minor candidates in from the start and a third candidate with strong ties to the Asian community. The three were able to take the majority of the Democratic vote. because Pete Aguilar  was a mediocre candidate. It's very unlikely to happen if the Democrats don't cooperate with a large field.

The flip side is choosing the best Democrat in Democratic districts by not running a Republican. Hopefully, Gloria Negrete McLeod and Eric Swalwell are more moderate, Michael Bloomberg thought so, but at the very least Swalwell retired Pete Stark. If the GOP wanted to take down Judy Chu or Linda Sanchez this'd be the way to do it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 19:27:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

McLeod is probably slightly to Baca's left

Gun Control, not moderation, is why he supported GNML.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 19:38:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Linda Sanchez

There is a Republican who has shot at beating Linda Sánchez: Supervisor Don Knabe. Now that he is in his last term as Supervisor (and won unopposed) it's not inconceivable that he could run for Congress seeing how popular he is locally across party lines. He could run a real campaign against Linda.

As for Judy Chu, she's not as staunchly liberal as Linda so I don't think there's a need for an Eric swalwell type

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

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by: TheCallofDuty @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 19:42:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh my, not this again...

In any remotely normal circumstances, there is not a single Republican in CA-38 who could beat Linda Sanchez. Not a single one. CA-38 is a 35% McCain seat where Romney probably didn't crack 40%. This is a hispanic majority, ~D+9, VRA district. A Republican won't beat Sanchez unless it's found out that she serially kills cats or sold nuclear secrets to the North Koreans. It wasn't happening in 2012 with Jorge Robles and it's not happening any time soon with Don Knabe.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 20:09:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You don't know the gravitas of Knabe

He won't start the race at toss-up of course but he'd likely put it at Lean/Likely Dem at the start. Knabe is an institution in East LA, otherwise he would have gotten AT LEAST nominal competition from any one of the democratic constituencies in what was a D+7 seat in 08 and has a 15 point D registration advantage.

Jorge Robles was never going to win barring said scandals. What he was going to do was focus on his native cities of montebello and pico Rivera, places new to Sanchez, and offer an alternative as part of a long term strategy with East LA.

I'm not saying Don Knabe would win just because he wins his Supe District, I'm saying he will make a race out of it through the support he gets from the community that I have seen personally.  

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

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by: TheCallofDuty @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 20:26:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Once upon a time

Once upon a time, there was a man named Chris Shays. Chris Shays, in his hay day, had more crossover appeal in Bridgeport than any other Republican. It's how he held onto a consistently Democratic leaning House seat containing strongly Democratic towns/cities like Westport, Norwalk, and Stamford. Shays lost in 2008 when he finally stopped over-performing at all in Bridgeport.

The days of that kind of crossover in a section of a strongly Democratic district neutralizing its strong Democratic lean and allowing a Republican to win the district are probably over.

It's also worth noting that we'd have an easier time winning back CT-04 than CA-38, but that's a different discussion.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 20:47:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

*heyday

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 20:47:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A blast from the past

Robles and Demographics
Looks, we're in it to win it because our campaign isn't a some white dude campaign. Robles is an officer who is through and through Mexican living in the best area of the district electorally as a republican (pico rivera and works in montebello). He can appeal directly to Hispanics because he literally and symbolically speaks their language. 50% of the district has never voted for Linda Sanchez before (Norwalk all the way up to south el monte). I'm not saying this is a guaranteed winning strategy, but it's something never been done before and I'm excited to be a part of it.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/showComment.do?commentId=129846

Emphasis added by yours truly. You were, in fact, rather confident that Robles could win but that it wasn't a guaranteed winning  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 21:30:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In it to Win it

Of course that was our mentality, otherwise there's no drive to campaign and there is no hype for others to get in. In-it-to-win-it does not mean I believed we could get 50%+1. Only if a perfect storm were to happen, which of course is possible, but not plausible. Stuff happens, and you can't plan everything in a campaign. Some good things happen. Some bad things happen. Uncertainty is the spice of life. I choose to be optimistic about it.


19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

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by: TheCallofDuty @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 21:37:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heh

You California GOPers drink from a different water source than the rest of us Republicans do. We heard so much !1!1! about how MBM was fine, Gary DeLong could win, Tony Strickland was favored, and that the GOP had an even chance to pick up seats. The CA GOP needs to focus like a laser beam on winning CA-36, CA-52, and maybe CA-07 in 2014. All of the other seats are fool's gold. Additionally, Gary Miller should be on his own in 2014. He's wealthy enough to self fund/fundraise so he doesn't take a dime from the NRCC.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 21:43:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And then there are those who can only find California on a map

Have you ever met the candidates? Do you know how politics work out here? Have you ever even been to the state?  I'm sure you've read a lot of stuff on the Internet. I imagine that reading about politics in the Delaware Valley and experiencing them are two different things and maybe it's the same out here.

We had a tough year where the close ones all broke against us and the Democrats had two very popular at the top of the ticket. Mary Bono Mack was in a district with a Republican registration edge and killed in the primary. How many Republican incumbents with a registration edge even lost in 2006 and 2008? Not many, I'm sure.

Gary DeLong got beat 56%-44% in a district that everyone agreed was a slight possibility. After the primary I ran two different mathematical models and came up with either 55%-45% Lowenthal or 56%-44%. I volunteered for Gary and worked hard. Of course I thought we could win. I don't know how you can go knock on door after door if you don't think that.

Tony Strickland was never favored. He's certainly a popular Republican who had an easy time fundraising, but he was in a district that was a toss-up at best. After the primary I expressed disappointment in his performance and put Brownley as a slight favorite. I volunteered with Strickland too. Of course I thought we could win.

I don't always get 'em right and can draw the wrong conclusions, but I bristle when someone who doesn't live California politics thinks he knows more about what's going on than I do. Thank you for the advice. We know what we need to do and which districts to go after. We may not always do the job well and we're not as successful as we like but we understand the politics here.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 22:04:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not a knowledge issue

Being on the ground, or at least being around state insiders, is important. There's absolutely no doubting that. It's why I was sure we were going to lose IL-12 and IL-17 until September (which is when I left Illinois and started relying on the internet and out of state GOP sources for IL political information).

That being said, it's also worth noting that having emotional attachment to your home state and its candidates sometimes colors your perspective. I was convinced Schilling and Plummer were going to be losers until late in the game when a combination of hope and relying on the judgment of other hopeful people who were on the ground. Sometimes, you need a realistic outsider to say, "That's just not happening, even if you've spent some time on the ground and think things are going your way." I'm fairly sure Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, Stu Rothenberg, et. al. know significantly less about California politics than you do and spent no time on the ground in California this year, but their calls were more accurate because there's a detachment from emotional ties and a reliance on credible outside information that's important to consider.

I don't think I know more about CA politics than you or Call of Duty do, or even close to the same amount, but I was always skeptical about our chances of winning CA-03, CA-09, CA-24, CA-26, CA-38 (lol), CA-41, CA-47, etc. With demographic trends moving against us in California, I don't expect to win a single one of those seats for even a single term all decade.

Sometimes, you lose at the mapping table (see IL-10 and CT-05). While we certainly didn't lose at the mapping table for CA-07 (where the foolish  CA GOP closed all of its Sacramento area victory offices, effectively killing off its best member in Dan Lungren), CA-36, and CA-52, we pretty much did in all of those other districts. They're just out of reach right now and things will probably only get worse.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 22:28:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two way results CA CD's

27: 65% O, 35% R
28: 74% O, 26% R
29: 79% O, 21% R
30: 66% O, 34% R
32: 66% O, 34% R
33: 61% O, 39% R
34: 85% O, 15% R
37: 87% O, 13% R
38: 66% O, 34% R
39: 46% R, 54% O
40: 80% O, 20% R
43: 79% O, 21% R
43: 79% O, 21% R
44: 86% O, 14% R
47: 61% O, 39% R

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by: GradyDem @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:29:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

39 is backward

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by: GradyDem @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:37:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA-39

CA-39 voted 54% for Obama or Romney?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:42:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

54% Romney

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by: GradyDem @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:46:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA CDs

What is your source? Do you have the rest of them?

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:59:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What does this include?

Is it just LA County votes? Does it include everything that's been counted. I have no idea how anyone could determine this when the 100k+ LA County ballots that were counted yesterday haven't even been submitted to the SoS yet.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:13:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is from a poster on DKE (nt)

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by: GradyDem @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:29:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IL-12

Can you please elaborate on IL-12?

How/why did we lose it?  what is 2014 looking like for that seat?

What factors made you know that we were going to lose it?

Age: 30, Home: Indiana-04, live temporary in Arlington, VA
Socially, Scott Brown; Economically, Mitt Romney; National Security, Ron Paul;

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by: IndGOPer @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:29:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe CA26

Brownley seems to be generic Cali Democrat; this is higher income district that might swing against Obama in year 6; but we'd need a less partisan R than Strickland, who seems generic Cali GOP  

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by: CTIronman @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 22:24:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA-26: "Higher income district"

I'd be a lot more comfortable spending national money in a district that didn't contain Oxnard and instead contained Simi Valley. The wrong parts of Ventura County were taken out of the district if it's one we want to win.

It's just highly likely that CA-26 has a CT-05 or CA-09 style problem in that it contains plenty of Republican friendly, higher income areas but also contains just too many urban voters to keep it winnable absent a wave election.

Brownley blatantly carpetbagging to Ventura County from the Santa Monica/Malibu area solely to go to Congress should have been enough to knock her out if we were going to beat her. I fear that this district probably would favor Brownley over even a Maldonado type (or some other non-standard CA GOPer), although that'd probably be our best shot to win it back.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 22:34:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Any seat that has Thousand Oaks is winnable

We need to keep pressing in these seats; especially in the off years. The Democrat urban areas drop off in such cycles; or at least they did in '06 & '10  

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by: CTIronman @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 22:41:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA GOP

Needs to focus on holding CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-31, and, later in the decade or if they come open, CA-39, CA-42, CA-45, and CA-49. Just my unsolicited advice..

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 22:56:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hard to spend a decade tied down on defense

Defeat becomes self- fulfilling. Have to pick your spots but Maginot Line isn't a political strategy either  

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by: CTIronman @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:26:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's true enough

Though I think knocking the Democrats out of their supermajority in the legislature is a far more viable target. To be sure, that won't be easy either. As I said back in March, the past performance of California districts pointed toward a baseline of 55 Dems in the CA Assembly and 27 Dems in the CA Senate, so I'm not sure why people thought the supermajority was a longshot.

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:51:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Baseline?

Based on what? The Democrats won 54 districts in the assembly and won one district AD-65 where every other Democrat was beat badly.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:11:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here

Based on this.

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:37:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Optimistic much?

So, in a decade the GOP will be down to 7 seats? Districts that Republicans won by 15-20 points this year will go Democratic? Democrats managed to win two districts where Republicans had a registration edge, 0.1%, and 1.7%. And you think Democrats will take districts where the GOP has a 15% registration edge?

We all know Democrats had a big registration burst when online registration was added, but their share in some of these districts went down.

The Democrats had a good year. They got fortunate that online registration was added. Barack Obama and Dianne Feinstein are very popular. They've gotten the low hanging online registration. Obama and Feinstein are not going to be on the ballot again.

Democrats won almost every close race. That takes a bit of luck. So now they think they're going to win Republican seats where the Democratic share of registration is dropping.

Barack Obama isn't running again. In 2010, he wasn't running and Democrats got trashed.

I'm not going to say this is the best the Democrats will do, and it's possible they could add seats this decade, but this isn't the Democratic floor. At least when Democrats thought they were going to keep all those seats forever in 2008 they had gotten 55.6% of the vote. This year they won 50.3% and everyone is acting the same as they did in 2008.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:09:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I had to intern at Feinstein's office 6 years ago

And the talk then was that it was all but certain she would retire in 2012. I'm starting to think she knows she can hold this seat for life and will do so.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

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by: aas34 @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:37:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

Democrats got 50.3% this year and picked up a net four seats in California (which everyone knows would've been net five were it not for the CA-31 fluke). Whenever they get 55.6% of the vote again, they'll pick up more.

When was the last time the GOP picked off a Democratic seat in California? It wasn't in 2010.

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:42:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA-21 is a Democratic seat

79% of it is in Costa's current district.

The Democrats won one scandal plagued Republican seat in the last decade before 2012. Obama won 8 Republican seats in 2008 and Democrats won 0. In every state where Obama won more than 2 Republican districts Democrats took at least 1 seat.

This is a new ballgame with new districts.

The problem with your estimation is that Democrats severely underperformed Obama this year. Here are 5 big swing counties with competitive congressional districts this year:

San Diego
Obama 53.3%-46.7%
Feinstein 53.9%-46.1%
Democratic congressional candidates 50.4%-49.6%

Orange
Romney 53.2%-46.8%
Emken 52.5%-47.5%
Republican congressional candidates 56.8%-43.2%

Riverside
Obama 50.3%-49.7%
Feinstein 51.5%-48.5%
Republican congressional candidates 51.3%-48.7%

Ventura
Obama 53.0%-47.0%
Feinstein 53.9%-46.1%
Democratic congressional candidates 50.8%-49.2%

Fresno
Romney 50.6%-49.4%
Emken 50.2%-49.8%
Republican congressional candidates 55.3%-44.7%

I haven't calculated the assembly numbers in each county but Democrats got nowhere close to what Obama got. You can't expect a Democrat outside of a minority-majority district to match Obama.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 01:00:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

Democrats 'underperformed' because:

CA-10

Denham: $2,336,066
Hernandez: $1,495,603

CA-21

Valadao: $1,239,227
Hernandez: $106,934

CA-25

McKeon: $1,869,645
Rogers: $333,391

CA-31

Miller/Dutton: $1,576,754
Democrats: $0

CA-39

Royce: $2,558,642
Chen: $773,493

CA-42

Calvert: $1,047,828
Williamson: $0

CA-45

Campbell: $1,185,801
Kang: $594,739

CA-49

Issa: $2,143,694
Tetalman: $113,074

That won't keep happening.

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 01:16:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Candidates

Are you forgetting the $1 million Jay Chen's brother spent or the $4 million in Democratic independent expenditures in CA-10?

The FEC site isn't showing candidates right now, but Buck McKeon has always spent his money in other candidates' districts in the past.

San Diego includes CA-51 and CA-53, two districts Republicans didn't compete in. Yet Democrats in the district still ended up 3% lower than Obama. What about San Joaquin County where they underperformed by 5%? Were the Democrats not trying in CA-9 or CA-10? How about Madera County where Jim Costa was running against a non-entity? He did 3% worse than the President.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 01:43:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure

what we're even debating at this point. It's indisputable that more voters in California will vote for congressional Republicans than will vote for Republican presidential nominees. My only point was that the Democratic under-performance is exaggerated in the counties you selected, mainly because there were more Republican incumbents. That said, it really isn't a big deal to me either way.

I've said before that California should be more responsive to national waves under the new maps. I think everyone agrees about that as well. So, if that's the supposed issue of contention, then there isn't one.

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 15:51:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Isn't Knabe almost 70?

Would he want to be a House freshman now?

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by: CTIronman @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 22:43:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He did in '78

His first foray into politics was a loss to La Mirada Mayor Wayne Grisham for the nomination to replace Del Clawson. He then won a Cerritos council seat, became mayor and then lost in a state sen primary to Assb. Wayne Grisham (who had been redistributed out of his Congressional seat) Knabe then ran in '96 for the Supervisorial seat he currently holds.

I think it'd be poetic for him to win that seat in Congress he wanted 34 years ago now that he has nothing to lose given his term limit. Plus he'd be doing a giant favor for us all by attempting to take out Sanchez..if nothing else but to keep her money in CA-38.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

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by: TheCallofDuty @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:25:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kittens

I'm not sure cats would do it. Only 40% of people really like cats. If she was killing kittens though I think that would create an opening. After all, she only got 67% this November, though granted the district is becoming steadily more Latino.

Killing puppies would be a slam dunk. Everyone loves puppies.

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 20:27:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would consider voting for her

If she reduces the kitten population as would many Latinos who are decidedly dog-people.

The supermajority she got in December was he result of Ben Campos' Lakewood centric campaign and lack of spending any of his own wealth. An actual district wide campaign from Campos, a some dude, would have made it closer, not too much closer but still closer.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

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by: TheCallofDuty @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 20:50:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

I agree. Killing them probably wouldn't be enough. She'd have to be caught on camera torturing them, or something like that. And, even then, she'd get voted out not so much for the kittens but for being mentally unbalanced. Oh, and it'd probably have to happen after the primary. That's one of the important caveats to remember with the top-two system. A scandal big enough to take out an incumbent in an otherwise safe district probably just means the incumbent won't make top two, or will end up squaring off in the general election with a challenger from the same party.

That said, if Linda Sanchez were framed as a puppy killer, all bets are off..

Democrat, NC-11

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by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 21:17:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Linda Sanchez

There is a Republican who has shot at beating Linda Sánchez: Supervisor Don Knabe. Now that he is in his last term as Supervisor (and won unopposed) it's not inconceivable that he could run for Congress seeing how popular he is locally across party lines. He could run a real campaign against Linda.

As for Judy Chu, she's not as staunchly liberal as Linda so I don't think there's a need for an Eric swalwell type

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

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by: TheCallofDuty @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 19:42:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA-38 was a D+9 district that in all likelihood will be the same or more Democratic after the new numbers are calculated

Besides CA-31, we only have D+1 districts. Now that is our floor, but D+4 or 5 is about as Democratic of a district that we can compete in - if there is not a scandal or major ethics issue.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

---

by: aas34 @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 20:14:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stark-Swalwell

My impression (from a distance) of the Stark-Swalwell race was that it wasn't particularly ideological, rather the key issue was that Pete Stark is just a flaming a*****e.

---

by: davybaby @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 00:10:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Disclaimer and an addition

I'm not saying I'm necessarily itching to challenge these particular incumbents.

Addition: How in the world could I have forgotten Scott DesJarlais? Defeating him should be as easy catching a fish in a barrel.


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:19:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Murphy

The fact that Raja lost a State Senate seat that went for Romney by double digits shows you cannot be too conservative in the area especially considering the State Senate seat in issue is in traditionally Republican territory.

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:06:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

I'm not advocating for Tim Murphy to face a serious primary challenger; I'm just saying it's a possibility that he could lose to one.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:08:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably not one from the CPA though

Murphy's a great ideological fit for that district.  Even though someone more Conservative could realistically win it, Murphy hasn't done anything to warrant a CPA challenge.

CPA usually goes after people like Charlie Rangel, Spencer Bauchus, and Shelia Jackson Lee.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

---

by: Greyhound @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:59:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The nice thing about the CPA is that they don't care

they're about rotation in office, not ideology or ethics. I could definitely see Murphy being a target if someone serious challenged him.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:02:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mine

So, the districts need to be essentially uncompetitive in a general election, right?

GOP

1. DesJarlais (TN-04)
2. Young (AK-AL)
3. Bachus (AL-06)
4. Broun (GA-10)
5. Calvert (CA-42)

DEM

1. Rangel (NY-13)
2. Andrews (NJ-01)
3. Meeks (NY-05)
4. Visclosky (IN-01)
5. Waters (CA-43)

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:15:02 PM UTC

Wrong

The CPA doesn't care about general elections. Shamlet's saying, "Imagine you're the head of the CPA: where do you spend?" You're supposedly not beholden to one party or another when running the CPA. You don't care about anything but defeating a corrupt or otherwise unsavory Congressman in a primary election.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:22:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK

Well, why on earth is Bentivolio at the top of your list? The only personal negative I've seen about him is that he hates teenagers, which is just normal.. ;)

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:27:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They tend to favor safe seats though

RM has a point. But to make it easier let's disregard that for this exercise.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:27:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ciciline

Isn't he vulnerable to a more credible primary opponent? My sense is he win his primary out of fear the alternative was even more apt to lose to Doherty. No serious R & RI Dems might be more willing to mete out justice themselves  

---

by: CTIronman @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:43:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah, yes

Cicilline slipped my mind. Should be on my top 5 list.

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 23:00:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reposting this: New Arkansas gubernatorial candidates

Potential candidates include Former Congressman Asa Hutchinson, whose decision will come in January, State Senator Johnny Key, Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr, and businessman Curtis Coleman.
Attorney General Dustin McDaniel maybe challenged by Bill Halter or John Burkhalter.

The Republicans probably have a leg up on this race if they are running against Halter or Burkhalter. With McDaniel, the race probably begins as a Tossup. If Curtis Coleman is the Republican nominee, the race probably begins at Likely D.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/art...

---

by: GradyDem @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 22:53:24 PM UTC

Hutchinson

How viable would he be? It's been a while since he last ran for something and his last race was a double digit general election gubernatorial loss. Also, his brother's last race was an even worse loss (not in terms of margin but in terms of what contributed to the loss) and maybe voters would associate the two. Asa probably still has significant statewide name recognition. Is Steve Womack interested in running for governor? I think he would be a good candidate with congressional, mayoral, and military experience.

---

by: ncgop @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 23:43:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which of the many CPA groups are you refering to?

My first thought was Certified Public Accountant; and I guess they'd target both those in favor of flat tax and those in favor of greatly reducing number of deductions.

There's also Community Preservation Act based in Mass; I guess they would seek to primary Democrats not bringing home enough bacon.

There are also several Canadian groups and a UK political party.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

---

by: joncnunn @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 23:32:22 PM UTC

Campaign for Primary Accountability PAC

The PAC was active in contributing to the losses and close margins incumbents experienced in primaries this year. It was bipartisan in who it targeted.

---

by: ncgop @ Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 23:46:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

in that case

DesJarlais (TN-04) has got to be at the top of their list (if he runs)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

---

by: joncnunn @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 00:18:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My CPA picks

5 Dem targets:

1) Charlie Rangel (NY-13)
2) Greg Meeks (NY-5): Meeks is so crooked I'd be shocked if he doesnt get indicted by the Feds soon
3) John Dingell (MI-12): taking out a Congressman who was 1st elected in 1955 to succeed his dad who held the seat since 1933 is kind of what the CPA is all about.
4) Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30): They will bring up the scholarship scandal.
5) Pete Visclosky (IN-1)

5 GOP targets:
1) Don Young (AK-AL)
2) Spencer Bachus (AL-6): Insider trading
3) Jack Kingston (GA-1): He's been there for over 20 years and could be vulnerable to a tea party challenge.
4) Hal Rogers (KY-5)
5) Ralph Hall (Tx-4)

---

by: izengabe @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:01:15 AM UTC

And I left out CA

because I think the CPA will only get involved there if there are D vs D or R vs R top twos in the general.

---

by: izengabe @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:02:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My answers

Republicans -
Scott DesJarlais (TN-4) Obviously.
Kerry Bentivolio (MI-11) Also obviously.
Walter Jones (NC-3) I still think there's ample room for a challenger if a good candidate is recruited and funded.
Ken Calvert (CA-42) Someone who has coasted for far too long simply because nobody strong enough has bothered to challenge him.
Spencer Bachus (AL-6) There's a gigantic bench in this district and Bachus is the very definition of congressional deadweight.

Democrats -
Rangel (NY-13) Obviously.
Cicilline (RI-1) Given that it looks like Republicans will never be able to actually dislodge him I expect some ambitious RI Democrats to get impatient.
Sanford Bishop (GA-2) For the most part MMDs aren't the best places for primary challenges because of the strong influence of local machines. But I think a combination of Bishop's relatively conservative (for a Black D) voting record and his ethics problems could make a good starting point for a possible primary challenger... maybe someone from Macon?
Raul Grijalva (AZ-3) Like Cicilline this one would probably have to come from the right, but Grijalva is polarizing enough that Aguirre held him to something like 60% in the primary despite coming from a sparsely populated part of the district and only campaigning for 3 months.
Rob Andrews (NJ-1) He has some pretty serious ethics issues and I expect if someone strong stepped up and the CPA gave them some seed-money Norcross would probably turn on him.  

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:07:55 AM UTC

Why didn't I include...

Republicans: Don Young and Hal Rogers. While I'd love to see both of them go, I don't think it's possible given how much of a stranglehold they have on their districts.

Democrats: Gregory Meeks, Maxine Waters, and Eddie Bernice Johnson - given that they're in urban MMDs it's basically not possible to dislodge them without the support of the local machine - that's not something an outside group can really do.

And given that I think Rangel will step down anyway, come to think of it, I'll replace him with Visclosky (IN-1) - that one could be a two-pronged attack similar to Bishop in GA-2 for being ethically questionable and too conservative for the Democrats of the district.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:11:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Careful on Pete Visclosky

He may typically be about as visible on Capitol Hill as Jesse Jackson Jr was over the past few months, but he's absolutely adored by the unions and union members in Northwest Indiana. The new 1st district has a moderately large black population for a non-MMD seat in the industrial midwest at 18.2% VAP, but the ideology of the bulk of white Democrats in the 1st district is rather similar to Visclosky's. Additionally, blacks just don't turn out for primaries in places like Gary and Hammond (both of which have been in Visclosky's district for nearly 30 years). Visclosky also has the right heritage and familial history to be really popular with much of the district. I just don't see him losing.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:22:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A Cory Booker type

would be ideal for that seat - someone who can win over (and excite) the Gary black vote but also appeals to middle and upper-middle class whites in the suburbs and exurbs.

Most likely that person isn't in politics right now, but might be a well-known attorney or something.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:28:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-01: Cory Booker type from Gary?

1. Heh, good luck finding a Booker clone there. AFAIK, none of the trial lawyers in the district who advertise on TV/on billboards/in newspapers are black (and I've spent a fair amount of time in IN-01).
2. This is a working class district. Middle class and upper middle class whites in IN-01 are the Republicans in places like Munster, Crown Point, St. John, Dyer, and Schererville. Farmers in southern Lake and Porter Counties are Republicans. IN-01 has a lot of mobile home parks and other residential units typically associated with lower and lower middle class whites.
3. The only significantly populated place where a Booker type may do particularly well against Visclosky outside of Gary and Michigan City (seeing as that's new to IN-01) is Valparaiso, thanks to the white, liberal, high turnout voters there associated with Valparaiso University. I just don't see the culturally conservative, economically leftist union members in places like Griffith, Portage, Merrillville, and Lake Station breaking en masse against Pete Visclosky. He's really well liked in those towns.
4. It's important to note that Mitt Romney barely saw any improvement over John McCain in Porter County. McCain got ~45%, Romney got 47%. It's worth noting that GWB twice won Porter County. It may be trending left for some reason. Perhaps there's some Chicago spillover out that way now, which could be more receptive to a Visclosky challenge. Still, that's not numerically significant.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:46:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Map

I think it is a viable route, and you're underestimating how many Ds are embedded in these red areas. My assumptions are that Obama vote share is roughly equivalent to the number of Democrats here, and that there's roughly 70% as many votes in a midterm as a presidential, with a bigger turnout dropoff in the cities.

URL=IMG][/URL]

The red zone is Gary and East Chicago. Almost no white people; contributed 50K Obama votes in 2008. Let's say our "Gary Booker" gets on the good side of the black turnout apparatus, and this region contributes 25K votes split 90/10.

The green zone is the blue collar white areas you've been talking about. I gave Michigan City to this region because it's demographically similar. Obama got 85K votes here, let's say it contributes 55K split 70/30 for Visclosky.

This brings us to the blue zone, which is basically the Republican portion of the district. Obama got 60K here, so it would probably contribute somewhere around 40K in a midterm. As of now we have 41K for Visclosky and 39K for our new guy. So "Booker"'s baseline is 55% in this area, and I think there are enough combined moderate and white-collar liberal Dems here to get up to that.

It would require the right candidate running a very good campaign, but I think it is doable.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:24:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe I'm being overly technical

But CPA's criteria also includes having served at least two terms in Congress, so they don't target freshmen like Bentivolio.

It's not as if I'm a Bentivolio fan, but I'm just wondering where all the antipathy is coming from. Is he on these lists just because he's a fluke, and presumably an easy target?

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:23:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because he just screams "beatable":

just like DesJarlais - the only reason he'll make it through 2014 is if multiple people split the vote. If one person coalesces support, that person will win - and as such from the CPA's point of view it's a way to notch an easy victory.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 15:11:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Primarying Bentivolio

Voters never got a chance to pick their next Congressman in a primary when Thaddeus McCotter suddenly was thrown off the ballot. If they want to pick Kerry Bentivolio, that's more than fine. Regardless, he deserves a strong, well-funded primary so that the voters of Oakland and Wayne Counties get the chance they deserve to pick their Congressman in a competitive primary.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 15:28:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More

Rick Crawford: for wanting to repeal the ban on earmarks, and running on raising taxes on "TEH EEEVIL RICH!1!1!" when his race was never thought to be competitive.

Louie Gohmert: for semi-regularly embarrassing himself, his constituents, the State of Texas, and the Republican party by making outlandish statements.

Michele Bachmann: see Gohmert, replace "Texas" with Minnesota."

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

---

by: TexasR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:18:00 AM UTC

Michele Bachmann

She has won in three Democratic years, including one with a presidential campaign distracting her.  The only argument against her is electability, and that one will not fly with enough people in a midterm with a Democrat incumbent.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

---

by: FreedomJim @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 13:56:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bachmann

1) She won in 2006 because she was seen as Generic R in what is far and away the most Republican district in Minnesota.

2) She would have lost in 2008 had it not been for a third-party candidate on the ballot.

3) Yes, she won in 2012, but again, it is the most Republican district in Minnesota and she has chronically underperformed the top of the ballot in her district. I understand that some see her as a hero, but her constantly running behind the top of the ticket and quite frankly taking in resources that could be far better utilized elsewhere means that the caucus and the entire party is better off without her.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

---

by: TexasR @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 17:55:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bachmann

The fact Bachmann performs significantly worse than Kline or Paulsen shows she is not that good of a representative.  Her national profile hurts her locally to say the least.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 18:11:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Michele Bachmann

It is the Democrats who keep wasting money trying to defeat Bachmann.  Se should have little trouble winning in 2014 and primarying her would be a waste of time and resources.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

---

by: FreedomJim @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 02:51:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm going to shock myself

and tentatively agree with you about Crawford. As the years go by, AR-01 is drifting farther and farther right. I still think that someone who might successfully primary Crawford could be beaten by a very good Democrat (State Sen. Bookout comes to mind). However, I doubt that one of the popular Democratic state legislators would run barring a scandal or an open seat situation.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

---

by: Son_of_the_South @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 17:00:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sad effect of Obamacare

One of my good friends from high school, an absolutely brilliant guy, goes to the University of Chicago.

We went out to lunch today and I asked him if he still wants to go to medical school, something he's been talking about for years. He told me that Obama's reelection has made following through with that dream far less likely.

He interned for a pharmaceutical company this summer, so I asked him about going into the medical device manufacturing/medical research field. He said that the medical device tax in Obamacare caused the company to hack a few hundred jobs this year and that's a frightening thought for him.

Attention, Mr. President, you're causing a brain drain from the medical profession.

Sigh

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 04:50:59 AM UTC

Don't worry

if things hold true what people around me are saying, the United States will experience an inflush of foreign physicians ...

people are banking on the fact that thousands of physicians will leave their profession (as it was mentioned a couple of times during the debate on Obamacare and even if only half of them quit, it'll leave a giant hole), so they see an opening to work in the US on better working conditions than here at home.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

---

by: GerGOP @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:34:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm sure they'd be welcome

But they'll still have to compete with all these med school graduates:

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:39:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In a country with 315 M potential patients

Is that such a large number?  I think law is far more overstaffed since so much of that profession can be outsourced/in- housed/digitized  

---

by: CTIronman @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 12:10:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

But the limiting factor is (a) the number of medical school slots and (b) the number of residency positions. In short, there are far less of both than the number of people who want to fill them.  

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 13:10:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Florida State House

Republicans lost in 2 R+2 districts, 1 R+4 district, and 1 R+5 district. That's just not good.  

---

by: PHL Rep @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:59:48 AM UTC

Proxy vote for Scott?

Or first year/new district hiccups?

---

by: CTIronman @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 12:11:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

This is nothing.  Based on my estimates, the PA Democrats hold 5 State Senate seats and at least 10 State House seats with R PVI scores.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 13:28:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where are they?

nt

16, Scotland, Left winger

---

by: robster07896 @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 15:25:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The 2 R+2 are in Central Florida

They were won by Linda Stewart and Karen Castor Dentel. The R+4 seat is in Miami-Dade County. The seat was won by Jose Javier Rodriguez (defeating former state Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla). The R+5 seat is in Pinellas County. It was won by Carl Zimmerman (defeating incumbent state Rep. Peter Nehr).  

---

by: PHL Rep @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:06:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The 2 R+2 are just like the state

And losing 2 lean R seats isn't the end of the world or too bad in D years.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:02:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In the other news Silvio Berlusconi could still run for the premiership...

Berlusconi could still change his mind on his retirement...at the age of 76 he could run for the 6th time for the premiership ( in the past 5 he won 3 times and lost barely in 2 )...of course if he will run he will be the heavily underdog in the race...

Despite all the media chatting about him he is actually the only fiscal conservative ( and social moderate ) in the italian politics...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

---

by: Italian GOPer @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 18:18:21 PM UTC

PA-GOV: Casey/Rendell not running

http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

---

by: GradyDem @ Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 23:33:14 PM UTC

Corbett

This is a sign Corbett is not perceived as vulnerable as some suspect.  Casey would jump in if he thought Corbett was going down.  He is risk adverse, but he is even more adverse to letting a chance to advance slip out of his hands.  If a Democrat wins, Casey is waiting until at least 2022 to be Governor if not later.

Rendell was never a serious candidate and his approvals are still worse than Corbett.  Rendell might win the Philly suburban counties plus Philly, but he is toxic outside the those areas.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 22:09:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Orange County and California Republicans

http://www.latimes.com/news/lo...

---

by: GradyDem @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:29:31 AM UTC

Romney vote in NYC

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 00:52:59 AM UTC

That article actually reassured me.

It sounds like South Brooklyn's going to be with the GOP for a while.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

---

by: Son_of_the_South @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 19:54:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CT-05: Talk of Roraback running again

and apparently Tierney won because of the Elizabeth Warren turnout machine

http://www.rollcall.com/news/d...

---

by: GradyDem @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 18:01:07 PM UTC

Tierney was never as weak as appeared

Unlike some other members of congress, he has been a workhorse for the district, probably second only to Frank. If you looked at the results in the northern part of the district, Tierney ran substantially ahead of Warren in Salem(7000 vote win instead of 4000) and Gloucester(3000 vote win instead of 700).

Tierney won because of Brown/Tierney voters in his base area.

On a wider level, the Mass GOP, with the exception of a few town committees has completely collapsed as it has in Connecticut. Its not so much Warren's turnout operation as that it is that the GOP base is either viewed as uselessly eccentric for real GOTV(Tea Partiers) or so demoralized that its impossible to get people to go door to door. This is increasingly a problem in New Hampshire as well outside of Manchester and the Border.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

---

by: gladstone @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 19:16:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

I think this is totally off-base. Tierney is no workhorse... ask somoene in Gloucester whether Tierney or Brown has been working harder for them and see what response you get. It's more that Tisei never really defined himself positively. All the SuperPAC ads were just attacking Tierney, and even Tisei's own ads started off negative. The Brown/Tierney voters are not "I love Tierney because he does so much for us" voters. They're "I love Brown, but I'm a Democrat, and I have no clue what this new guy stands for other than not being John Tierney" voters.

Tisei in a very real sense fell into the Baker trap.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 19:30:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Disagree

Look up any story about Gloucester Fisherman, the NOAA, or pretty much any fishing or tourism related issue on the Northshore. Three names will come up. Barney Frank, Scott Brown, and John Tierney. The comparison here is not to Brown - Brown did substantially better than Tisei in all of those towns. Rather the fact is that Tierney over-performed in Gloucester and Salem compared to Warren.If Tisei had matched Brown in either town he would have won.

I did some consulting here, the simple truth is that while Tierney's actual record of accomplishments is thin, he has at least rhetorically been covering all the bases for years. Someone like Neal or Meehen might have been doomed in similar circumstances. Tierney had a lot of goodwill, and outran Warren on the North Shore. The only reason the race was close was because of Tisei's absurd performance in his old Senate seat.

Here the numbers for those towns

Gloucester

Warren 8,026 52%
Brown  7,381 48%

Tierney 8,697 58%
Tisei   5,569 37%

Obama   9,680 63%
Romney  5,511 36%

Lynn

Warren 20,673 65%
Brown  11,026 35%

Tierney 21,631 70%
Tisei    8,122 26%

Obama   22,965 72%
Romney   8,463 27%

Salem

Warren 11,791 61%
Brown   7,612 39%

Tierney 12,410 65%
Tisei    5,648 30%

Obama   13,429 69%
Romney   6,635 29%

Tisei actually tended to get less votes than Romney by about 1,300 in these towns. Warren did not carry Tierney over the finish line on her own.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

---

by: gladstone @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 23:58:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some avid posters here

Seem to think the blue collar vote no longer matters in New England & there are enough votes in the "Whole Foods" towns to carry the day. This was a mistake Dem operatives didn't make either here or in CT05

---

by: CTIronman @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 00:23:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This doesn't prove your point as distinct from mine

You're saying Tierney over-performed because of residual goodwill. I'm saying Tisei underperformed because he wasn't well defined. Tisei's strong performance in his old SD would support my argument.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:17:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rs ran Tisei & Roraback and folks here thought they were perfect

But there weren't enough votes in their senate districts or similar yuppie towns to offset Lynn & Waterbury  

---

by: CTIronman @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 02:06:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Philly to New Jersey: a letter to the editor in the Harrisburg newspaper

Heh.

Move Philly to New Jersey
As you might be aware, many states have petitions to secede from the union.
After I have reviewed the presidential voting results by county, I have what appears might be a better solution for the majority of central Pennsylvania.
I propose that we transfer Philadelphia to New Jersey. We would save a tremendous amount of our tax dollars, and it seems to have more in common with New Jersey.
RICHARD CONLEY, Wellsville

http://www.pennlive.com/letter...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 20:13:44 PM UTC

I would be fairly surprised if Philly didn't pay more in tax dollars

than it receives.  

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 09:19:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Propbably correct

I have heard arguments stating both, but it really boils down to how you allocate tax collections.  If you allocate them purely on residency then it is true Philadelphia receives more than it pays in taxes.  If you allocate tax revenues based on location of employment, the opposite is true.  I think a better comparison is looking at such things regionally.  On a regional level, the entire metro area pays more in taxes than it receives in state expenditures.

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 15:26:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Harry Reid tries to stop retirements; Levin expected to run again

http://thehill.com/homenews/se...

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by: GradyDem @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:04:10 PM UTC

Sen. Harkin has already said he will run again.

He's the type to lose reelection or die in office, I think.  

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

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by: Setsuna @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:17:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My guess

Is that of the 5 Democratic senators mentioned, Levin, Lautenberg, and Rockefeller will retire before the summer. I think Johnson will retire as well, but he will not announce until later in the year. Therefore, I think Harkin is the only one that runs again.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

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by: aas34 @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:20:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd venture to guess

Tim Johnson has a 90% Retirement probability
Jay Rockefeller has a 60% Retirement probability
Frank Lautenberg has a 50% Retirement probability
Tom Harkin has a 15% Retirement probabaility
Carl Levin has a 10% Retirement probability


32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

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by: Tekzilla @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:23:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with that for the most part

Though I'd put Rockefeller at more like 80%, and Durbin at about 50%.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:24:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Johnson is gonna be whipsawed on Banking comm.

His constituency wants Dodd-Frank rollbacks --local bankers & the credit card industry

Reid & the D base want Lizzy Warren banking regs

Not viable IMO  

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by: CTIronman @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:30:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually, Johnson gets a lot of financial support from credit card companies

and bankers. Their support will be the only way he is even remotely competitive if he runs again.  

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by: GradyDem @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:52:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So, do the Netroots meekly smile while he dismantles their agenda?

Methinks at some point they stop being lackeys for corporate Democrats  

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by: CTIronman @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 22:24:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Disagree

Just because Johnson won't agree with Warren 100% doesn't mean the netroots will go after him.  Most of them will understand he is our best shot there, Rounds or otherwise.

I don't think he has to worry about a primary or the netroots at all.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

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by: Tekzilla @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 00:39:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I could see a fiscal drag

He's not going to get the MoveON funding most of the D winners in '12 had  

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by: CTIronman @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 00:47:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How much did MoveOn donate to Heitkamp or to Tester or to McCaskill?

(I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't much at all.)

As for Johnson, he's popular with the banks and credit card industry in South Dakota. He'll get support from them, especially as Chair of the Banking Committee.

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by: GradyDem @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:46:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tester was a Netroots fave in 06

And I'm sure Heitkamp had big feminist $$$
Rounds is no Berg, either  

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by: CTIronman @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 02:08:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No of course he's not

And Rounds will get a lot of banking support as well.

But the point is - Johnson is the Head of the Banking Committee. A lot of companies will surely want to keep that position in South Dakota.

The whole exercise over Johnson's fundraising sources is moot though; I think the race is Lean R with Rounds.

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by: GradyDem @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 02:42:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Durbin

I think its pretty certain he runs again, but I could see a 25% chance of Retirement due to age and Obama would likely give him a decent cabinet spot.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

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by: Tekzilla @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 00:40:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

After Rockefeller's floor speech against Coal, I just do not see him running again

I would put his retirement possibility at 99.9%.

I would also put Levin up around 50%, but I agree with the other three.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

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by: aas34 @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:43:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Rockefeller should be higher.

You don't give a floor speech announcing the death of coal if you're planning to run again in West Virginia. Actually, from a Republican electoral perspective I kind of hope he does run again; the anti-coal stuff will make great ads, and there are some more generic Dems who could probably do better in a GE than Rockefeller at this point.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

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by: AJNolte @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 21:59:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Coal

I think people don't estimate how much the Democrats are getting the snot kicked out of them because of coal.  The Democrats holding on in Appalachia are wholly owned subsidiaries of the coal companies and their unions.

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 22:10:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I see that Capito is announced she's running for Rockerfeller's seat

Yeah, if Rockerfeller actually runs clips from that floor speech will be run a lot.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

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by: joncnunn @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 02:07:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Link

http://www.wvmetronews.com/new...

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by: davybaby @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 04:56:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll be shocked if either Levin retires

People have speculated about his retirement for years. I think it's wishful thinking. I hope he retires, but I doubr it.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

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by: Republican Michigander @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 07:10:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Catalonia elections: Separatists gain another majority

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new...

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 22:19:50 PM UTC

no big suprise

Per the wikipedia, "Catalonia contributes 19.49% of the federal government's tax revenue, but only receives 14.03% of federal spending."

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

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by: joncnunn @ Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 23:08:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Catalonia can be in the E.U.

It doesn't need Spain.

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by: davybaby @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 04:54:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Catalonia

The EU will decide if this goes forward or not.  If the EU accepts Catalonia, it becomes independent.

This is an unusual situation.  Usually breakaway regions tend to be poorer than the country as a whole.

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 05:38:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

some areas I know that want to break away that are richer than their unit

Northern Fulton County, GA to revive Milton County.

mid 90s: Suburbs of Shelby County, TN* to form Nesohoba County.

* The official plan left out the SW portion of Bartlett due to state law dealing with minimum distance from the court house.
Memphis has since annexed territory that would seem to rule out a revival of the plan (but still leaves open future possibilities of requests of suburbs to be moved into the existing adjoining counties.)

19th century: St Louis City, MO was wealthier than St Louis County when it successfully broke away from St Louis County. (It's now the opposite and St Louis County doesn't want it back.)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

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by: joncnunn @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 13:03:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA-7: Who could probably run against Bera in 2014?

former Rep. Doug Ose? former state Sen. Rico Oller?  

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by: PHL Rep @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 04:21:20 AM UTC

How about Sacramento County DA Jan Scully?

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by: PHL Rep @ Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 04:23:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]