Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Final 2014 Race Ratings

2014 Turkey Awards


Comparison of my 2012 Predictions vs. Results (plus a look ahead to 2014)

by: californianintexas

Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 15:39:19 PM EST


Here is the comparison of my 2012 predictions against the results. I know that not all the results have been finalized, but it doesn't seem likely that any result will change at this point.

Most of my predictions were really close, though there were some surprising results where my prediction was way off, and some of the safe races had no polls at all, including some states with presidential polls (ie. Alaska).

For the presidential race, I:

(1) Weighed state polls and national polls for the presidential race. Here is an example, using Hawaii.

HAWAII
State Pollster
Merriman River Group/Civil Beat 10/24-10/26: Obama 61, Romney 34 (D+27)

National Pollster
Monmouth 11/01-11/04: Obama 48, Romney 48 (EVEN)
Rasmussen 11/01-11/04: Obama 48, Romney 49 (R+1)
Washington Post/ABC News 11/01-11/04: Obama 50, Romney 47 (D+3)
Politico/GWU 10/29-11/01: Obama 48, Romney 48 (EVEN)
NBC News/WSJ/Marist 11/01-11/03: Obama 48, Romney 47 (D+1)
Public Policy 11/01-11/03:Obama 50, Romney 47 (D+3)
United Technologies/National Journal 10/25-10/28: Obama 50, Romney 45 (D+5)
Fox News 10/28-10/30: Obama 46, Romney 46 (EVEN)
North Star Opinion Research 10/23-10/25: Obama 47,    Romney 48 (R+1)

(2) I then averaged the national polls and used them against the state's margin in 2008 (Obama won Hawaii by 45.26%).

State Adjustment:
National poll average: 1.11
2008 margin: 45.26
Adjusted margin with 2012 national polls: 46.37

(3) Finally, I weighted the national polls against the state polls. (If there were no state polls, the national-adjusted number would be the prediction.) If there was 1 state poll, I would multiply each by half. If there were 2 state polls, they'd get 2/3 of the share; 3 would get 3/4, etc.)

State polls: 27.00 x 0.50 = 13.50
National polls: 46.37 x 0.50  = 23.19

Prediction: Obama will win by 36.69%.

For the governor and Senate races I simply averaged the polls. Races without polls I put as safe for the incumbent party.

For the House races, I weighed pundit ratings with polls (if applicable). No polls meant the average pundit rating (Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, CQ) would get 100% of the weight, 1 poll would get 50%, 2 polls 67%, etc.

californianintexas :: Comparison of my 2012 Predictions vs. Results (plus a look ahead to 2014)
StateMy PredictionActual Result
Alabama
Romney by 19.23
Romney by 22.24
Alaska
Romney by 20.43
Romney by 13.95
Arizona
Romney by 6.84
Romney by 9.09
Arkansas
Romney by 22.87
Romney by 23.88
California
Obama by 19.92
Obama by 21.76
Colorado
Obama by 2.59
Obama by 4.98
Connecticut
Obama by 15.74
Obama by 17.58
Delaware
Obama by 26.09
Obama by 18.63
District of Columbia
Obama by 87.03
Obama by 84.01
Florida
Romney by 0.26
Obama by 0.86
Georgia
Romney by 6.71
Romney by 7.82
Hawaii
Obama by 36.69
Obama by 42.7
Idaho
Romney by 24.19
Romney by 31.87
Illinois
Obama by 18.81
Obama by 16.69
Indiana
Romney by 5.43
Romney by 10.59
Iowa
Obama by 2.79
Obama by 5.8
Kansas
Romney by 13.81
Romney by 22.26
Kentucky
Romney by 14.55
Romney by 22.7
Louisiana
Romney by 17.52
Romney by 17.2
Maine
Obama by 15.29
Obama by 15.1
Maryland
Obama by 22.39
Obama by 25.55
Massachusetts
Obama by 21.84
Obama by 23.12
Michigan
Obama by 5.18
Obama by 9.5
Minnesota
Obama by 8.34
Obama by 7.69
Mississippi
Romney by 12.06
Romney by 12.04
Missouri
Romney by 8.3
Romney by 9.62
Montana
Romney by 5.11
Romney by 13.66
Nebraska
Romney by 13.41
Romney by 22.36
Nevada
Obama by 3.64
Obama by 6.57
New Hampshire
Obama by 3.01
Obama by 5.56
New Jersey
Obama by 14.33
Obama by 16.9
New Mexico
Obama by 11.66
Obama by 9.88
New York
Obama by 26.87
Obama by 26.64
North Carolina
Romney by 0.46
Romney by 2.07
North Dakota
Romney by 19.11
Romney by 19.62
Ohio
Obama by 2.96
Obama by 2
Oklahoma
Romney by 29.59
Romney by 33.54
Oregon
Obama by 9.78
Obama by 12.14
Pennsylvania
Obama by 6.09
Obama by 5.02
Rhode Island
Obama by 22.98
Obama by 27.42
South Carolina
Romney by 7.87
Romney by 10.45
South Dakota
Romney by 6.65
Romney by 18.02
Tennessee
Romney by 13.95
Romney by 19.41
Texas
Romney by 14.9
Romney by 15.83
Utah
Romney by 33.45
Romney by 47.9
Vermont
Obama by 37.56
Obama by 35.6
Virginia
Obama by 2.05
Obama by 3.73
Washington
Obama by 12.05
Obama by 14.47
West Virginia
Romney by 12.99
Romney by 26.86
Wisconsin
Obama by 5.8
Obama by 6.71
Wyoming
Romney by 31.23
Romney by 40.82

2012 GovernorMy PredictionActual Result
Delaware
Safe Markell (D)
Markell (D) by 40.75
Indiana
Pence (R) by 7.87
Pence (R) by 3.13
Missouri
Nixon (D) by 13
Nixon (D) by 12.06
Montana
Daines (R) by 0.5
Bullock (D) by 3.32
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) by 3
Hassan (D) by 12.09
North Carolina
McCrory (R) by 14.25
McCrory (R) by 11.49
North Dakota
Dalrymple (R) by 35
Dalrymple (R) by 28.79
Utah
Safe Herbert (R)
Herbert (R) by 40.62
Vermont
Shumlin (D) by 34.00
Shumlin (D) by 17.38
Washington
Inslee (D) by 0.5
Inslee (D) by 2.26
West Virginia
Tomblin (D) by 21
Tomblin (D) by 4.75

2012 SenateMy PredictionActual Result
Arizona
Carmona (D) by 0.5
Flake (R) by 4.81
California
Feinstein (D) by 19
Feinstein (D) by 22.78
Connecticut
Murphy (D) by 4.67
Murphy (D) by 12.2
Delaware
Safe Carper (D)
Carper (D) by 37.46
Florida
Nelson (D) by 7.43
Nelson (D) by 12.83
Hawaii
Hirono (D) by 18.5
Hirono (D) by 15.2
Indiana
Donnelly (D) by 3
Donnelly (D) by 5.16
Maine
King (I) by 18
King (I) by 12.18
Maryland
Cardin (D) by 26.09
Cardin (D) by 28.67
Massachusetts
Warren (D) by 4.67
Warren (D) by 7.32
Michigan
Stabenow (D) by 13.5
Stabenow (D) by 20.82
Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) by 30
Klobuchar (D) by 34.62
Mississippi
Safe Wicker (R)
Wicker (R) by 16.99
Missouri
McCaskill (D) by 6.25
McCaskill (D) by 15.52
Montana
Rehberg (R) by 1.13
Tester (D) by 3.5
Nebraska
Fischer (R) by 13
Fischer (R) by 16.34
Nevada
Heller (R) by 5.14
Heller (R) by 1.22
New Jersey
Menendez (D) by 18
Menendez (D) by 18.43
New Mexico
Heinrich (D) by 9.67
Heinrich (D) by 5.49
New York
Gillibrand (D) by 43
Gillibrand (D) by 45.43
North Dakota
Berg (R) by 5
Heitkamp (D) by 0.94
Ohio
Brown (D) by 6.14
Brown (D) by 5.31
Pennsylvania
Casey (D) by 5.14
Casey (D) by 9.01
Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
Whitehouse (D) by 29.8
Tennessee
Safe Corker (R)
Corker (R) by 34.51
Texas
Cruz (R) by 21.5
Cruz (R) by 16.18
Utah
Safe Hatch (R)
Hatch (R) by 35.02
Vermont
Safe Sanders (I)
Sanders (I) by 44.31
Virginia
Kaine (D) by 1.57
Kaine (D) by 5.14
Washington
Cantwell (D) by 16.5
Cantwell (D) by 19.28
West Virginia
Manchin (D) by 39
Manchin (D) by 22.98
Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) by 2.67
Baldwin (D) by 5.57
Wyoming
Safe Barrasso (R)
Barrasso (R) by 54.07

2012 U.S. HouseMy PredictionActual Result
AZ-01
Paton (R) by 1.88
Kirkpatrick (D) by 3.7
AZ-02
Barber (D) by 5.63
Barber (D) by ?
AZ-09
Sinema (D) by 2.56
Sinema (D) by 3.7
CA-03
Garamendi (D) by 15
Garamendi (D) by 7.4
CA-07
Bera (D) by 1.25
Bera (D) by 2.2
CA-09
McNerney (D) by 1.25
McNerney (D) by 8.2
CA-10
Denham (R) by 1.13
Denham (R) by 7.6
CA-24
Capps (D) by 2.5
Capps (D) by 9.6
CA-26
Brownley (D) by 0.5
Brownley (D) by 3.4
CA-36
Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
Ruiz (D) by 2.8
CA-41
Takano (D) by 6.25
Takano (D) by 12.8
CA-47
Lowenthal (D) by 15
Lowenthal (D) by 10.2
CA-52
Peters (D) by 0.31
Peters (D) by 0.4
CO-03
Tipton (R) by 5
Tipton (R) by 12.4
CO-06
Coffman (R) by 4.38
Coffman (R) by 3.6
CO-07
Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
Perlmutter (D) by 12.1
CT-05
Esty (D) by 3.13
Esty (D) by 3
FL-02
Southerland (R) by 6.25
Southerland (R) by 5.4
FL-10
Webster (R) by 5
Webster (R) by 3.6
FL-16
Buchanan (R) by 10
Buchanan (R) by 7.2
FL-18
West (R) by 4.59
Murphy (D) by 0.8
FL-22
Frankel (D) by 3.89
Frankel (D) by 9.2
FL-26
Rivera (R) by 2
Garcia (D) by 10.6
GA-12
Barrow (D) by 4.25
Barrow (D) by 7.4
IL-08
Duckworth (D) by 8.75
Duckworth (D) by 9.4
IL-10
Dold (R) by 1.88
Schneider (D) by 1
IL-11
Foster (D) by 2.81
Foster (D) by 16.2
IL-12
Enyart (D) by 4.94
Enyart (D) by 8.6
IL-13
Gill (D) by 0.63
Davis (R) by 0.4
IL-17
Bustos (D) by 0.63
Bustos (D) by 6.6
IN-02
Walorski (R) by 12.5
Walorski (R) by 1.4
IN-08
Bucshon (R) by 10
Bucshon (R) by 10.3
IA-01
Braley (D) by 15
Braley (D) by 15.2
IA-02
Loebsack (D) by 10
Loebsack (D) by 12.9
IA-03
Latham (R) by 3.75
Latham (R) by 8.7
IA-04
King (R) by 3.44
King (R) by 8.6
KY-06
Chandler (D) by 5.19
Barr (R) by 3.9
MD-06
Delaney (D) by 5.5
Delaney (D) by 20.5
MA-06
Tisei (R) by 5.5
Tierney (D) by 1
MI-01
McDowell (D) by 1.31
Benishek (R) by 0.7
MI-03
Amash (R) by 11.25
Amash (R) by 8.6
MI-11
Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
Bentivolio (R) by 6.3
MN-02
Kline (R) by 15
Kline (R) by 8.2
MN-06
Bachmann (R) by 6.25
Bachmann (R) by 1.2
MN-08
Nolan (D) by 2.56
Nolan (D) by 9
MT-AL
Daines (R) by 8.67
Daines (R) by 10.3
NV-03
Heck (R) by 9
Heck (R) by 14.2
NV-04
Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
Horsford (D) by 7.9
NH-01
Guinta (R) by 5.31
Shea-Porter (D) by 3.7
NH-02
Kuster (D) by 4.85
Kuster (D) by 5.1
NJ-03
Runyan (R) by 10.63
Runyan (R) by 9
NY-01
Bishop (D) by 8.69
Bishop (D) by 4.4
NY-11
Grimm (R) by 13.38
Grimm (R) by 6.6
NY-18
Hayworth (R) by 4.75
Maloney (D) by 3.4
NY-19
Gibson (R) by 3.75
Gibson (R) by 6.8
NY-21
Owens (D) by 2.06
Owens (D) by 2
NY-24
Maffei (D) by 1.56
Maffei (D) by 3.6
NY-25
Slaughter (D) by 9.38
Slaughter (D) by 14.4
NY-27
Collins (R) by 2.06
Collins (R) by 1.4
NC-07
Rouzer (R) by 0.63
McIntyre (D) by 0.2
NC-08
Hudson (R) by 10
Hudson (R) by 8.2
NC-11
Meadows (R) by 12.5
Meadows (R) by 14.8
ND-AL
Cramer (R) by 12.25
Cramer (R) by 13.2
OH-06
Johnson (R) by 4.38
Johnson (R) by 6.6
OH-16
Renacci (R) by 1.88
Renacci (R) by 4.4
OK-02
Mullin (R) by 11.63
Mullin (R) by 19.1
PA-06
Gerlach (R) by 15
Gerlach (R) by 14.2
PA-08
Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
Fitzpatrick (R) by 13.3
PA-12
Critz (D) by 1.88
Rothfus (R) by 3
RI-01
Cicilline (D) by 2.83
Cicilline (D) by 10.9
SD-AL
Noem (R) by 12
Noem (R) by 15
TN-04
DesJarlais (R) by 5
DesJarlais (R) by 11.6
TX-14
Weber (R) by 6.25
Weber (R) by 8.9
TX-23
Gallego (D) by 1
Gallego (D) by 4.8
UT-04
Love (R) by 8.19
Matheson (D) by 1.2
VA-02
Rigell (R) by 10
Rigell (R) by 7.6
WA-01
DelBene (D) by 5.25
DelBene (D) by 7.2
WV-03
Rahall (D) by 12.5
Rahall (D) by 7.8
WI-07
Duffy (R) by 6.25
Duffy (R) by 12.2
WI-08
Ribble (R) by 15
Ribble (R) by 11.8

There were a few races that turned out to be close that few had considered vulnerable (though I think CA-33 is questionable):

Close races not rated:Result
CA-16
Costa (D) by 9
CA-33
Waxman (D) by 7.4
HI-01
Hanabusa (D) by 9.2
NE-02
Terry (R) by 2.4
NC-09
Pittenger (R) by 6.1


Looking ahead to 2014, the districts I consider vulnerable are those in which the margin was under 10%, though some of them could have been close because of new constituents following redistricting. Of course circumstances can (and will) change, and districts will be added or removed from this list between now and November 4, 2014.

Here are the Senate seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.

StateIncumbent
Alaska
Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas
Mark Pryor (D) - possibly
Colorado
Mark Udall (D) - depends on the challenger
Louisiana
Mary Landrieu (D)
Massachusetts
John Kerry (D) - if appointed Secretary of State
Michigan
Carl Levin (D) - if he retires (he will be 80 in 2014) and depending on the Republican nominee
Minnesota
Al Franken (D)
Montana
Max Baucus (D)
New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey
Frank Lautenberg (D)
North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D)
Oregon
Jeff Merkley (D) - depends on the challenger
South Dakota
Tim Johnson (D)
West Virginia
Jay Rockefeller (D) - depends on the challenger

Here are the governor seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.

StateIncumbent
Arizona
OPEN (R)
Arkansas
OPEN (D)
Colorado
John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut
Dan Malloy (D)
Florida
Rick Scott (R)
Illinois
Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa
Terry Branstad (R)
Maine
Paul LePage (R)
Massachusetts
OPEN (D)
Minnesota
Mark Dayton (D)
Nevada
Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire
Maggie Hassan (D)
Ohio
John Kasich (R)
Oregon
John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania
Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island
Lincoln Chafee (I)
Wisconsin
Scott Walker (R)

Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Governor section
Pence won as a Republican when you predicted he'd run as a Democrat?

McCory won as a Democrat when you predicted he would run as a Republican?

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Good Catch
[nt]

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

[ Parent ]
Oops, thank you.
And I can't believe I forgot to put Franken on the 2014 list.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.com
31, Libertarian, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Nice predictions


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Thank you. (nt)


http://www.theelectionsgeek.com
31, Libertarian, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Very nice!
Now, those with the outlandish predictions should do the same.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Thanks (nt)


http://www.theelectionsgeek.com
31, Libertarian, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Here are my California ratings
vs. the (tentative) results. (For how I got my Partisan Factor [PF] ratings, check this diary.)

CA-03: R+2.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-07: R+5.5 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-09: R+0.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-10: R+8.6 (GOP win predicted, GOP win result)
CA-24: R+3.7 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-26: R+3.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-36: R:7.9 (GOP win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-41: R+0.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-47: D+0.7 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
CA-52: R+6.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)

SD-05: R+6.9 (DEM win predicted, GOP win result)
SD-19: D+0.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
SD-27: R+3.0 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
SD-31: R+3.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
SD-39: R+0.0 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)

AD-08: R+4.2 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-16: R+0.6 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-21: R+3.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-32: R+4.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-40: R+5.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-44: R+5.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-60: R+8.4 (GOP win predicted, GOP win result)
AD-61: D+1.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-65: R+8.1 (GOP win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-66: R+4.1 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
AD-78: D+4.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)

http://www.theelectionsgeek.com
31, Libertarian, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


And I just saw that Democrat Galgiani took the lead in SD-05.


http://www.theelectionsgeek.com
31, Libertarian, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox