This should be pretty close since many of these counties have one district. LaMalfa underperforms Romney. It was an open seat, but this would be a concern if the district weren't so Republican.
Republicans won't be challenging here
This one is tough, since a number of the counties are split. Depending on the weighting Obama could end up with a much higher number. Garamendi may not have underperformed as much as I thought.
Only a little better than Romney but it should be safe enough
Safe for Thompson
Sacramento county was one of the few counties where Obama got less than 60% of the vote and Democrats got a higher percentage of the congressional vote than he got the Presidential vote. Maybe more of that went into CA-6, because Romney winning CA-7 would be a surprise.
Lungren was bombarded with outside spending but Democrats should feel good if Bera did indeed win a Romney district. Of course that doesn't make it safe.
I'm not sure how winnable this one is, but McNerney greatly underperformed Obama.
Denham's strength should be comforting but Democrats will continue to target him.
It'd be nice to see how a real candidate would do, but this is probably out of reach.
I'm sure that Democrats will target Valadao but they have a dearth of candidates and this is a strong area for the GOP.
Romney appears to have done worse here than CA-1. I doubt Democrats will target Nunes.
Here's where you can debate. Capps and McNerney got similar wins, but Obama did 4 points worse here. I think that shows Capps is much stronger than McNerney and less vulnerable. Maybe others see the opposite. Or that neither are vulnerable.
I wasn't expecting Obama to do nearly as well here. Brownley should be vulnerable.
Here's where the method I used gets dicey. Dividing up the Presidential vote by the congressional district shows Bono Mack overachieving. I don't think that's the case but Republican congressional candidates did beat Romney.
Romney didn't do as well as expected, but Royce withstood a barrage of independent expenditures.
Anyway you slice it, I doubt Takano will be vulnerable any time soon.
The last Riverside district. Theoretically, Calvert should exceed Romney by more than Tavaglione or Bono Mack since Democrats spent in those districts, but not this one. So if Romney did worse here, he did better elsewhere. So that could mean Romney lost CA-36 by less than 9.
Another district Democrats will dream about. Good luck.
I didn't adjust this district to match Obama and Sanchez more since this wasn't an 85%-15% district like CA-34. Had I lowered the Obama percentage, that would've raised it a little bit in each of the other OC districts.
I have this as slightly less Obama than DKE did. Regardless, it's not worth our time in the future.
I don't see Democrats taking down Darrell Issa.
This district is this Romney because Hunter did so well. I don't think it'll end up that high and those Romney votes are likely elsewhere in the county.
I adjusted the votes to make these match, since Hispanic districts closely matched. I may be overestimating Obama a little and maybe this is where some of those Romney votes that I put in Hunter's district go.
I may be overestimating Obama here but he did win this district. It should be a GOP target but it won't be easy.
My methodology is very rough and assumes uniformity based on congressional results. Individual numbers are likely wrong, but what you see here applies how Republicans in a county did compared to Romney in that county.