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California Congressional Calculations

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:20:45 AM EST


I don't have Presidential voting by district and I have no idea where that'd be available right now. So I've calculated the Presidential voting by district using proportionality for split counties. The 3rd congressional district has 94% of the Democratic congressional votes in Glenn County and 88% of the Republican votes. I split up Romney-Obama the same way. I made some tweaks in San Diego, since majority-minority districts tend to end up very close to Obama-Romney numbers.

I skipped districts that didn't have Republican-Democratic congressional races, as they didn't have proportion.

So don't use these as gospel but an idea of what the numbers will look like.

If someone has the actual precinct/district data I'd like to see it.

Left Coast Libertarian :: California Congressional Calculations
CA-1
Romney 58.3%-41.7%
LaMalfa 57.4%-42.6%

This should be pretty close since many of these counties have one district. LaMalfa underperforms Romney. It was an open seat, but this would be a concern if the district weren't so Republican.

CA-2
Obama 71.7%-28.3%
Huffman 71.2%-28.8%

Republicans won't be challenging here

CA-3
Obama 54.6%-45.4%
Garamendi 54.1%-45.9%

This one is tough, since a number of the counties are split. Depending on the weighting Obama could end up with a much higher number. Garamendi may not have underperformed as much as I thought.

CA-4
Romney 59.5%-40.5%
McClintock 61.1%-38.9%

Only a little better than Romney but it should be safe enough

CA-5
Obama 72.8%-27.2%
Thompson 74.3%-25.7%

Safe for Thompson

CA-6
Obama 73.6%-26.4%
Matsui 74.3%-25.7%

CA-7
Romney 50.5%-49.5%
Bera 51.3%-48.7%

Sacramento county was one of the few counties where Obama got less than 60% of the vote and Democrats got a higher percentage of the congressional vote than he got the Presidential vote. Maybe more of that went into CA-6, because Romney winning CA-7 would be a surprise.

Lungren was bombarded with outside spending but Democrats should feel good if Bera did indeed win a Romney district. Of course that doesn't make it safe.

CA-9
Obama 59.0%-41.0%
McNerney 54.8%-45.2%

I'm not sure how winnable this one is, but McNerney greatly underperformed Obama.

CA-10
Obama 50.5%-49.5%
Denham 52.9%-47.1%

Denham's strength should be comforting but Democrats will continue to target him.

CA-16
Obama 59.0%-41.0%
Costa 56.3%-43.7%

It'd be nice to see how a real candidate would do, but this is probably out of reach.

CA-21
Obama 50.8%-49.2%
Valadao 58.7%-41.3%

I'm sure that Democrats will target Valadao but they have a dearth of candidates and this is a strong area for the GOP.

CA-22
Romney 57.9%-42.1%
Nunes 62.5%-37.5%

Romney appears to have done worse here than CA-1. I doubt Democrats will target Nunes.

CA-24
Obama 55.0%-45.0%
Capps 54.7%-45.3%

Here's where you can debate. Capps and McNerney got similar wins, but Obama did 4 points worse here. I think that shows Capps is much stronger than McNerney and less vulnerable. Maybe others see the opposite. Or that neither are vulnerable.

CA-26
Obama 55.8%-44.2%
Brownley 52.3%-47.7%

I wasn't expecting Obama to do nearly as well here. Brownley should be vulnerable.

CA-36
Obama 54.6%-45.4%
Ruiz 52.9%-47.1%

Here's where the method I used gets dicey. Dividing up the Presidential vote by the congressional district shows Bono Mack overachieving. I don't think that's the case but Republican congressional candidates did beat Romney.

CA-39
Romney 54.5%-45.5%
Royce 58.0%-42.0%

Romney didn't do as well as expected, but Royce withstood a barrage of independent expenditures.

CA-41
Obama 60.5%-39.5%
Takano 58.8%-41.2%

Anyway you slice it, I doubt Takano will be vulnerable any time soon.

CA-42
Romney 59.0%-41.0%
Calvert 60.6%-39.4%

The last Riverside district. Theoretically, Calvert should exceed Romney by more than Tavaglione or Bono Mack since Democrats spent in those districts, but not this one. So if Romney did worse here, he did better elsewhere. So that could mean Romney lost CA-36 by less than 9.

CA-45
Romney 54.9%-45.1%
Campbell 58.5%-41.5%

Another district Democrats will dream about. Good luck.

CA-46
Obama 67.1%-32.9%
Sanchez 63.9%-36.1%

I didn't adjust this district to match Obama and Sanchez more since this wasn't an 85%-15% district like CA-34. Had I lowered the Obama percentage, that would've raised it a little bit in each of the other OC districts.

CA-47
Obama 59.4%-40.6%
Lowenthal 55.9%-44.1%

I have this as slightly less Obama than DKE did. Regardless, it's not worth our time in the future.

CA-48
Romney 57.5%-42.5%
Rohrabacher 61.0%-39.0%

Safe

CA-49
Romney 55.2%-44.8%
Issa 58.4%-41.6%

I don't see Democrats taking down Darrell Issa.

CA-50
Romney 65.2%-34.8%
Hunter 67.9%-32.1%

This district is this Romney because Hunter did so well. I don't think it'll end up that high and those Romney votes are likely elsewhere in the county.

CA-51
Obama 70.8%-29.2%
Vargas 70.8%-29.2%

I adjusted the votes to make these match, since Hispanic districts closely matched. I may be overestimating Obama a little and maybe this is where some of those Romney votes that I put in Hunter's district go.

CA-52
Obama 54.3%-45.7%
Peters 51.1%-48.9%

I may be overestimating Obama here but he did win this district. It should be a GOP target but it won't be easy.

CA-53
Obama 64.1%-35.9%
Davis 61.1%-38.9%

Safe Democratic

My methodology is very rough and assumes uniformity based on congressional results. Individual numbers are likely wrong, but what you see here applies how Republicans in a county did compared to Romney in that county.

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Your results seem to be within a few percent of DKE's
for 39 and 47. Which is pretty good.  

CA03
Splitting Solano county as you did gives somewhat misleading results. Three cities, with minor areas around each, 1/3 of pop each

The most heavily Democratic city in the district is Vallejo, which went to CA05.  CA03, Garamendis district, has Vacaville, which went about 50/50

The  3rd city is Fairfield, heavily Democratic, but not so much as Vallejo.

I Actually looked at the preliminary votes a week ago, from a precinct list at the county website, with about 20,000 votes to go

Obama [05] 37874
Romney [05 12754
Obama [03] 51110
Romney [03] 36525

As of 11/21 only some 500 votes remain to be counted, by 11/30



CA03
Updated the figures for Solano county thru Nov 21, with 7000 votes still outstanding[provisional]

       Obama  Romney  Other
CA05    40240  13116   1343
CA03    52652  37303   2434


[ Parent ]
My splits were
       Obama  Romney  Other
CA05    40,277  11,721
CA03    51,511  38,705  

Very similar, although it pushes CA-3 to 55.2% Obama and moves CA-5 by 0.1 points to 72.3%. I didn't anticipate being 100% accurate. Just trying to give a good idea.

Thanks for the numbers.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Sacramento County precinct
Sacramento County precinct results
        Obama     Romney     Other
CA03       4872     5757       316
CA06     137930    56469      5779                            
CA07     137617   129883      7424                      
CA09       3522     4335       194

I dont see anything on the county site as to votes still outstanding.  Unchanged from before Thanksgiving.

         Obama           Romney    Other
Glenn
    CA01    214           662       23
    CA03   3087          4970      282

Final results  
http://www.countyofglenn.net/g...



[ Parent ]
I suspect that it might be better to do this with
2008 Presidential results than 2012 Congressional results. You get weird regional patterns in local races that you do not in Presidential races.

New certified CA numbers for 36, 41, 42
Your numbers were not as good for this batch, which is from certified results and posted on DKE.

36: 51.62% Obama, 48.38% Romney
41: 62.88% Obama, 37.12% Romney
42: 57.74% Romney, 42.26% Obama  


Riverside did finish counting
Although I can't find the data by congressional district on their website. It also strikes me as odd since Bono Mack would've fallen 1.3% short of Romney. In my estimation few Republican congressional candidates didn't exceed Romney.

I don't think CA-41 is a possibility for the GOP in the future, but they can do a lot better in CA-36.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Do you have ideas of candidates who could defeat Ruiz in CA-36?


[ Parent ]
Candidates
Republicans just lost four elections in Riverside county and I don't know the last time they lost one before this. I'm not sure why Republicans did so badly this year, so I don't want to make any predictions.

The four Democrats who won have no government experience. They are complete outsiders. Three of the four Republicans who ran had won elections before.

The Republican bench in Riverside county is a long one. Assemblyman Brian Nestande, State Senator Bill Emmerson. Riverside Supervisor John Benoit
Riverside Supervisor Jeff Stone, or Hemet mayor Robert Youssef all come to mind. Of course the GOP has dominated city government in almost every city in the district. So there are probably others who will be interested.

Of course, there's a new senate district, #28, that's Safe Republican. Bill Emmerson was just re-elected to the senate, but I believe he'll be termed out in 2016. He will be 69 years old in 2014, however.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I'm sure you know why
I hoped that you would become more realistic after the election.
Your preelection articles were all...  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
You mean more pessimistic
"I'm sure I know why?" You're being condescending implying I'm either too stupid to know why or I'm lying.

You spent a year being pessimistic about Mitt Romney's chances, continually criticizing him. There were two possible outcomes, either you were right or wrong. It turned out you were right. When pessimistic people are right, they talk about being "realistic."

If I predicted the GOP would take back the House in November 2008, I'm sure that people would've talked about being realistic. After all, the articles at the time were talking about how 2010 could be 1934 when Democrats added to their lead. The pessimists claiming to be in touch with reality were quiet then.

I don't believe I'm unrealistic about the GOP's position in California. I can be optimistic, but it's not unrealistic just because things don't go well. There were 8 congressional elections in California decided by 10 points or less. The GOP lost 7 of them. When one side wins one sided contests it's because they are better. When one side wins almost all of the close contests, there's an element of luck involved.

A 51%-49% district isn't the same as a 60%-40% district. It can go either way. This year an inordinate number went against us. In another year the close more evenly.

You can dislike my data, my writing, my analysis, and even my conclusions. If that's the case, you don't have to read my diaries. Please don't tell me I'm being unrealistic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
IT's pretty easy to figure why Mack lost.
A left-leaning national sway. Mack was totally out-of-touch with the Riverside community. Heck she's married to a Florida senatorial candidate.

The area suffered horribly in the housing crash and she had, to quote Dean Wormer, zero point zero answer for their questions.


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


[ Parent ]
Bono Mack
The left leaning national sway is fine for overall environment, but the question is how it impacts individual races. Obama got somewhere between 54-55% in Brian Bilbray's district and close to 56% in CA-26. So it's understandable why the GOP lost those districts.

Most incumbents anywhere will exceed their Presidential candidate's percentage. I'd estimate probably 3% of incumbents didn't. So those that do are rare. Bono Mack finished 1.3% behind Romney.

She was challenged by a strong challenger in 2010 and won by more than Dan Lungren did.

In 2008, She beat McCain by 11 points. Of the 16 GOP incumbents running that year only Devin Nunes beat McCain by more. So I'm surprised that she finished 15th of 15 this year.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Riverside County
You can probably chalk it up to changing Demographics (its one of the fastest growing counties in the US and probably saved CA from losing a house seat in reapportionment) and the coattails of Obama.

The county itself is pretty much a swing county at this point, voting for the [residential winner in every election since 2000. Bush and Obama both carried it twice.

While I expected Takano to win I was surprised by the fact that Obama improved in the district this time around.
From DKE:

In California, the most interesting district we've tabulated so far is CA-41, an open seat technically held by Republicans that was picked up by Democrat Mark Takano. Takano wound up performing very well, winning by over a dozen points-in part because he had some serious help at the top of the ticket. Obama's performance improved from 59-38 in 2008 to 62-36 this year


[ Parent ]
Former Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia
Assembly district congruent to house seat. Old Arnold ally; but I'll take any R I can get in Cali these days  

[ Parent ]
LCL - new CA official data from DKE
CA-41: Obama 62%, Romney 36%
CA-42: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
CA-45: Romney 55%, Obama 43%
CA-46: Obama 61%, Romney 36%
CA-48: Romney 55%, Obama 43%

From the counties
You're being helpful but I have the actuals from the counties. I got them yesterday and should've shared.

CA-36: Obama 50.7% Romney 47.5%
CA-41: Obama 61.5%, Romney 36.3%
CA-42: Romney 56.5%, Obama 41.4%
CA-45: Romney 54.8%, Obama 43.0%
CA-46: Obama 61.4%, Romney 36.2%
CA-48: Romney 54.7%, Obama 43.0%

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Incumbents
Can you post who represents each district? Haven't memorized that outside of the competitive districts in 2012.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Easy
36: Ruiz
41: Takano
42: Calvert
45: Campbell
46: Sanchez
48: Rhorabacher

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
DKos Elections
DKE spread sheet for Cal

https://docs.google.com/spread...

shows what your have.

DKE does not have Madera County, which is available at

http://www.madera-county.com/i...

page 5
       Obama    Romney    Other
04CA    4470     8915      252
16CA   11548    13937      311
total  16048    22852      563


[ Parent ]
Nevada County
Now if DKE were real helpful they'd figure out Nevada County:

http://www.mynevadacounty.com/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


nevada
tonite

Ive also done Sacramento and Santa Clara and Solano, but there are minor errors still outstanding.  


[ Parent ]
Santa Clara is done
But there are still ballots for the other two. No need to do it until after it's all done.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Nevada county
I realized Santa Clara was done, but I was unable to find a summary by congressional district.

Nevada I did.  Compared it to the total votes for Obama and Romney, and my spread is one vote over for Romney, but right on for Obama.  I missed 20 miscellaneous votes [apperently adding them up in my head does not work too well]
           Obama      Romney      Other
CA01        20274      22633       1748  
CA04         4388       2354        252


[ Parent ]
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