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Afternoon Political Roundup for December 10, 2012

by: James_Nola

Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 16:51:35 PM EST


PA-Gov: Sen. Bob Casey refused to rule out a run for Governor over the weekend, but he has in the past sounded very unlikely to run...for now.

SC-Sen B: Speculation that Gov. Nikki Haley will appoint Rep. Tim Scott is heating up today, with her announcing she will not appoint a "placeholder" to the seat and that she will hold a press tomorrow at noon in Charleston, Scott's home.

FL-Gov: DGA Chair Peter Shumlin is sending some not so subtle signals to potential FL Gov candidates that he supports Charlie Crist, saying "He's an incredibly capable leader...But having said that, everybody knows he was a great governor, led Florida with tremendous vision and is focused on jobs and job creation. So if he's a candidate, we would welcome him to the club. Charlie is a very strong candidate."

WA- St. Sen: Democratic Sens. Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon are joining with Republicans to control the WA Senate, with Tom as Majority Leader. The move takes the Democrat's 26-23 majority and essentially turns the Senate to a 25-24 Republican advantage.  

James_Nola :: Afternoon Political Roundup for December 10, 2012
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WA-08
So, John McCain got 43.2% of the 2008 two party vote in the King County portion of WA-08.
Dave Reichert? Sheriff Dave got 56.5 of the 2012 two party vote.

That's 13.3% more than John McCain got, and probably ~11.5-12% more than Romney got in the King County portion of the 8th district.

Dent, Reichert and Gerlach are in a class of their own: political iron men.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


WA Congressional map
Frankly, Reichert's insane overperformance somewhat makes me wish that the 8th had stayed west of the Cascades in a ~55% Obama 2008 configuration that Steve Litzow (the Republican State Senator from Mercer Island representing the bluest parts of the old WA-08) could have slid into in 2014. Litzow would have over-performed in all of the bluest parts of the old WA-08 (which would have been tinkered with to be a little bit more Republican). We could have run the 1st over the Cascades and made that into the 4th GOP district in a 5-4-1 map. Oh well, just a missed opportunity (I guess). I may draw and post that map as an academic exercise. Interestingly enough, I believe I remember such a map being considered.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I think that was Gorton's original plan
We needed one of the Dems to come on board though, and we redrew the 1st as a concession.

Also, I don't see why Reichert would retire in 2014, regardless of district. He's beaten everyone the Dems have to offer and is rapidly moving up on Ways and Means.


[ Parent ]
WA-08
I mean to say 2014, 2016, or 2018 (with 2016 and 2018 being more likely). He's publicly flirted with quite a few statewide bids and he had a health scare a few years back so it's possible that he's not content with staying in the House much longer.

Frankly, I forgot how rapidly he's been moving up the Ways and Means ladder.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
As I posted in the morning diary
Reichert ran 12% (48-60) ahead of Mitt in the district as a whole. Was about 11 points ahead in 2008.
Though, he faced a sacrificial lamb this time.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
FL-Gov
I really doubt that Shumlin would have called Crist "a great governor" if he had stayed with the GOP ... opportunism, thy name is politics.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

PPP hints
That Graham isn't vulnerable in the primary.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

SC-Sen
Is it possible that DeMint could be coaxed into resigning now so or in the waning days of the lame duck session so that whomever is appointed can leapfrog the incoming freshmen in seniority?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Doubtful
Only three Republicans would be ahead of the new senator (Flake, Cruz, and Fischer). And DeMint went to bat for two of them and I cannot imagine he's got a problem with Fischer.

Although seniority is technically the entire body, when it comes to committee assignments, it really is about how one stacks up within the caucus.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Minus Overseas Absentee and Provisionals
For all non-split municipalities (SOS won't give me final numbers by town yet). I have the final numbers for the split municipalities.

Massachusetts
CD1- Obama 64-34%, Warren 57-43%
CD2- Obama 59-39%, Warren 51-49%
CD3- Obama 57-41%, Brown 51-49%
CD4- Obama 57-41%, Brown 50-50%
CD5- Obama 65-33%, Warren 59-41%
CD6- Obama 55-44%, Brown 54-46%
CD7- Obama 82-16%, Warren 79-21%
CD8- Obama 58-41%, Warren 50-50%
CD9- Obama 56-43%, Brown 51-49%

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Was expecting better Brown % in the 3rd & 9th
Lemme guess; higher turnout & weaker % in Lawrence, Lowell & New Bedford  

[ Parent ]
Hey!
You Win!

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
sounds like
Republicans need to clone several copies Brown and have him run in several districts in Mass.
(Based on all the districts within a 51-49 margin either way)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Well, it's an Indicia the MA map is "fair"
Which means in MA we have a shot in a lot of places; but no great one. At least with the shoelace districts gone a candidate has some chance to effectively use local earned media  

[ Parent ]
With one exception
The Democrats crack Western Massachusetts to strengthen the 2nd District.

Straighten the border out you'd get this
CD1- Obama 69-29%, Warren 63-37%
CD2- Obama 53-35%, Brown 55-45%

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Obama 53-45%
Sorry about the typo

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Of course the south suburban R seat wasn't drawn
All 3 contestants have compact shapes & difficult terrain on their perimeter

4: Brookline & Newton
8. The white Boston precincts
9. The South Coast  

Of course we weren't drawing this map :)  


[ Parent ]
Yeah
I can't fault them with the Boston white precincts, or the South Coast. I wish they had either kept the South Coast together, or put Fall River and New Bedford in separate districts. Instead, they put New Bedford and part of Fall River with the Cape, and they put part of Fall River with Norfolk County and Newton/Brookline. Thus making both districts out of reach.

The one thing I do fault them on with the southeastern districts is the inclusion of Newton/Brookline. They are the epitome of inner urban suburbs, and have no business in a district including part of Fall River. At the very least they could have given the rest of the Route 9 corridor to the 4th (Natick and Framingham). Newton and Brookline have more in common with Cambridge and Arlington than Taunton and Milford.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Is it Gotterdamerung time for the Chavez regime?
It appears that leftist Venezuelan President Chavez's cancer has taken a turn for the worse, as he must return to Cuba for more surgery.  He has urged his followers to support V-P Nicholas Maduro if he is unable to continue as president in the upcoming months.  If Chavez is unable to continue as President and Maduro takes over, elections must be held with 30 days (unless the legislature changes the law).  The opposition would likely rally around state of Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski, who got 44% of the vote against Chavez in October. Radonski would likely do better against Maduro, who does not have Chavez's charisma, although Chavez's support will help Maduro with Chavez's leftist followers.  Expect a close election if the president steps down, assuming Chavez's followers run an honest election.  As Stalin pointed out, it doesn't count who people vote for but who counts the votes - not his exact words, but you get the point.  Always something to consider with regimes that idolize Castro.  

One small correction here
Henrqiue Capriles Radonski should be referred to by last name as Capriles. Radonski is a matrilineal name as part of the Hispanic tradition of using both patrilineal and matrilineal surnames(in that order) and not generally used as part of the surname in English(for comparison, Hugo Chavez is really Hugo Chavez Frias, but the Frias part is generally left off in English usage.)

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
30 Day Period will be fatal for opposition chances
Chavez, for all his current problems, is still widely admired for what he did do in terms of transforming the country, ending the oligarchic political system, etc. While a lot of people feel he has stayed on too long, and his party has become a vehicle for self-promoters and nutcases with links to Hezbollah and Iran, all of the latter will be forgotten in the weeks following his death. The state media will play non-stop videos with sad music about his early tenure and the 2002 Coup attempt, and the opposition, which has never been quite sure where it stands on Pre-2007 Chavismo, will be hopelessly split and message less, with all of the divisions over whether they support Chavismo without Chavez or a complete break out in the open.

I am not certain they would even manage the 44% they got this fall. It would be the worst of all possible dynamics. Which is exactly the reason for the 30 day law.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
MN-Gov
David Hann seems to be setting himself up to be the angry loyal opposition candidate in 2014.
http://www.minnpost.com/politi...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

FL-Gov; and it begins...
@jmartpolitico: RT @brianjburgess: Alex Sink, priceless: "I hope he'll find a place in the Dem Party that's more aligned with whatever his philosophy is."

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Zing
This'll be fun. If Bondi, Atwater, or Putnam jump in on our side, it'll be difficult to think of a Gubernatorial race in history with such high-powered primary candidates on both sides.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Sink wins against Crist
I am curious who Crist actually appeals to in the Democratic Party.  I am sure Kendrick Meeks people are still not happy with Crist.  I suspect Sink might be the favorite here.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I agree
But, it looks like Crist might get some establishment support. His position on abortion will be interesting to see.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
He was pro-choice in the 90s
so it might be easier for him to flip back.

The good thing about Orange Charlie is that he has no principles whatsoever. He's gone from generic R (1992) to moderate(1998) to conservative (2002) to generic R again (2006) to conservative (2009) to moderate (2010) to liberal (2012). It wouldn't surprise me if he's willing to go full-on bold progressive to win the nomination.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Easy Favorite
At Best for Crist this is Sestak vs Specter 2.0, but at least then Specter's party switch was while he was in office and really helped out the Democratic party.  Crist is basically got the same problem he had in 2010--He feels entitled to a seat that the rest of "his" party wants a legitimate shot at.  He'll lose, and then become even more embittered and even more irrelevant.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Crist needs to pass Gov. over.
Best thing to do is wait out 2014, hope Rubio runs for POTUS in 2016, and run for Senate then. Or even run against Rubio in 2016.  

[ Parent ]
Rubio would destroy him
He could literally use tape to compare and contrast the Crist evolution.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I imagine Crist's likeliest Democratic supporters would be that 31 percent, probably all white non-liberals, who backed Jeff Greene in 2010. Sink would destroy Crist with liberal women.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
That plus the electability vote.
Plus maybe some minorities if he gets even tacit support from the White House. There's definitely a path to 50 there, and much more so a path to like 35-40 if several candidates run.  

[ Parent ]
Two already running for SC-1
They believe Scott will be picked. State Sen. Larry Grooms Berkeley and State Rep. Chip Limehouse of Charleston. Limehouse is from an old SC political family, close to Speaker Harrell, and has 150k in the bank and would be able to raise big money. Grooms is a Tea Party aligned conservative who briefly ran for Gov. in 2010.

SC1-Charleston

Isn't Grooms one of those rogue redistricting clowns
That nearly gave them a 2nd district?

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Yes
Grooms tried to advance the alternative Senate plan that made the new 7th a Berkeley to Beaufort district. He wanted to run for the new seat of course. They compromised by getting Berkeley and Dorchester to be a larger share of the new redrawn 1st. Charleston County is only about 40% of the 1st, and Grooms district now includes about 20,000 in Charleston County.
https://docs.google.com/spread...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Fresno CA State ment of Vote
Fresno CA Statement of vote, at the board of Supervisors meetin agenda for Dec 11, 2012.

It is, of course, not posted at the Registrar of Voter site.

I have tried 2 or 3 times to download the PDF, but my computer kept crashing, over 7000 pages, almos 50 MB
http://www2.co.fresno.ca.us/01...
http://www2.co.fresno.ca.us/01...


No totals
Just listing every precinct.Be my guest if you want to take all this PDF information and figure it out. I still want to get Contra Costa, Solano, Lake, Monterey, Placer,
San Diego, Santa Barbara, Somona, Stanislaus, Tulare, and Ventura. I've combed through Sacramento but I don't know which precincts are in the 4th and 8th state senate districts.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
misread your question
sacramento precincts

sorry. misread your question on precincts

will reconstruct my list for statmetn of votes for counties



[ Parent ]
Fresno
Dr phillips has calculated CA21, on the kos elections web site, and downloaded a spreadsheet to David Nir. should be available tomorrow AM

I have identified statements of votes for most of the counties you mention, except for Sonoma

will look up the counties you mentioned.  


[ Parent ]
Thank you
Sonoma published theirs today. So I'm good with that. I need Contra Costa,
Fresno, Lake, Monterey, Placer, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Solano, Stanislaus
Tulare, and Ventura. in most states the SOV breaks down the election by district, but Fresno didn't.

Sacramento didn't publish a statement of vote, but did publish votes by precincts in Excel. So I was able to get most of the districts but didn't know which precincts were in the 4th and 8th state senate districts.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Lake, CA
lake

http://www.co.lake.ca.us/Asset...
http://www.co.lake.ca.us/Gover...

statement of vote  CA03 portion
obama      6167
romney     3840
other         477


[ Parent ]
CA-3
I can now finalize it as 54.2%-43.0%.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
stanislaus CA
All of Stanislaus is in the same CD.  do you need the breakdown by something other?

http://www.stanvote.com/return...


[ Parent ]
CA statement vote
lake

http://www.co.lake.ca.us/Asset...
http://www.co.lake.ca.us/Gover...

statement of vote  CA03 portion
obama      6167
romney     3840
other         477

contra costa

http://www.cocovote.us/content...


[ Parent ]
San diego Ca Statement of vote
http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/vot...

forged which link I used, but I think is is

san diego 201211 cvpdf. zip

anyway, dk elections has it

https://docs.google.com/spread...


[ Parent ]
santa barbara statement of vote
[ Parent ]
SOVs
Tulare statement of vote isn't on the page and SBC doesn't break it down by assembly district or senate district.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
tulare
http://www.tularecoelections.org/

look at the left hand side, scroll down a bit, and you will find statement of vote

page 24

very difficult to read.

close to the worst I have seen.  Alpine county, tho, is the worst.


[ Parent ]
NY SD-46 mini update
About 42% of contested Greene Co. Ballots tossed
Based on the Times Union article it appears that about 42% of the 214 Greene Co. ballots were tossed out.  The rate is about 53% for the other 3 counties combined(Albany,Schenectady and Montgomery) where a decison has been made on tossing out contested ballots.    In Ulster,so far the two sides have agreed to withdraw challenges to over 100 of the 521 contested ballots.  It appears to me that Amedore is going to need something more like a 53% contested ballot toss out rate (or higher) in Ulster to have a chance to win the NY 46SD - the 42% rate in Greene Co. would probably not be enough.

Also with regard to the NY legislature, a leading Dem. State Senator has compared Gov. Cuomo to Pontius Pilate for his role in the Repub-IDC deal for control of the State Senate. Should we now call him Pontius Cuomo?  


[ Parent ]
OR-5
Obama only won it 50.5-47.1.

Is this ever going to be competitive?  

26, Male, R, NY-10


One would think among Walden's top recruitment priorities should be one for this seat


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Schrader's a good fit for the District
The seat is Schrader's as long as he wants it. Also, the North Clackamas/ Happy Valley part of the district is trending Dem.

[ Parent ]
It will be competitive when Schrader retires


[ Parent ]
Most likely, but
That could be 5-6 cycles or longer.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Jim Bunn (R) held it for a while in the 90s.
Schrader is just too strong right now.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen; Does anyone know when the legislative session ends in Alaska?
I ask since that is when Parnell is expected to make his plans clear.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

April 1st
give or take, barring a special session which would go for the month of April.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Thanks
It will make my trip to DC even more interesting!

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Coming to d.c.
Let me know when you'll be in town. You can email me off-list: a. j. nolte @ gmail. commm (no spaces).

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Will do


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
WI SD21
Would the GOP try to recall state Sen. John Lehman in 2013? This is the reconfigured seat previously held by Van Wanggaard, but he was defeated by Lehman in the recall. Previously a swing seat, it is now a strong GOP district with a 2012 PVI of R+7.  

Probabaly just wait until 2014
I think people are sick of recalls and Republicans don't really need the seat right now.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yep
The 18-15 majority means that even with Schultz defecting you have a pro-Walker majority.

[ Parent ]
Obama Campaign
RS has a good article on some of the most important Obama campaign team members and what exactly did they do...

http://www.rollingstone.com/po...

I would like to see one for Romney's team as well, even if they didn't win.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


New Michigan Poll: 51%-41% in favor of RTW
Including 40% of Union members.
Strongest among Persons 18-29: 63% in support

http://www.michiganview.com/ar...


Super weird confused people crosstabs
Snyder didn't give unions the chance to build a narrative or argument.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The same poll underestimated Obama in MI by 4.5
Had Obama up by 5 going into the last weekend, he won by 9.5. This after having a tie and having Romney up 1 earlier in the year.

In other words, I'd like to see another poll before concluding that RTW is, in fact, popular in Michigan.

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
The RCP average was 4
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

None of the final polls were more than 6 and there were no polls that had Obama up by more than 7 in October. Obama was stronger than most pollsters had him, so judging one that had him weaker is misleading.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
True, but Mitchell had it close all along.
When others had big Obama leads, Mitchell had it close. Then even on the final poll they had it widen a bit, but not to the actual margin.

I'm just saying I would like to see more data before generalizing the state of public opinion on this issue.

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
When it comes to issues - judge the intensity
Back in the 90's, you had surveys 2-1 showing support for increased gun control. After a few elections, it was shown to generally be a loser of an issue outside of some deep blue areas or entrenched incumbents strong on other issues.

Either all the polls are off or independents who "supported" gun grabbing had other priorities.  

Just because one supports/opposes an issue doesn't mean they vote on this issue. At least for 2014 (although there could be a recall).

Right now, the right is probably the most unified against the union leadership - especially the MEA and SEIU - than I've ever seen before. It's all politics.

I can believe 18-29. No jobs. AKA Unions aren't delivering. Not having time to look closely, my gut tells me the most pro-union age group is 55-69. Older boomers who could either walk into a factory or take one of the new opening in the massive teachers hire in the late 60's and early 70's.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
WA State Seate
Oh the remaining 24 Democrats ae livid. Under the plan the Democrats would still get to control 6 cairman positions, the GOP 6, and slit the other 3 with co-chairs. The Democrats threatening that they might not accept any of those chairman positons. To which I'm sure the Republicans are saying ".............umm ok!"

I will be interesting to see more of this drama unfold. It will also be interesting to see if Sheldon and/Tom switch or leave the Democratic party and become independents, with the state party disowning ten and threats of offically recuirting and going after tose two in their next elections in 2014.

Reguardless, I have a smile on my face tonight.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


What is the balance in the state House?
Are there any fiscally conservative Dems there?  

[ Parent ]
WA state House
Margin is 56-42 Democratic, so their control over that chamber is pretty soild.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Many names floated for Dem nomination
Sen. Bob Casey
Rep. Alyson Schwartz
state Treasurer Rob McCord
former state DEP Secretary John Hanger (declared)
former Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper
state Sen. Mike Stack
Montgomery County Commission Chairman Josh Shapiro
Allentown mayor Ed Pawlowski

http://blogs.mcall.com/capitol...
http://www.politicspa.com/disp...
http://www.politicspa.com/schw...


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