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Political Roundup for December 11, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 07:30:40 AM EST


DeMint: While Senator DeMint might be leaving the Senate for the Heritage Foundation, his impact on congressional races might continue.  DeMint is known for pushing conservative primary challengers in recent times, but he has been a long time policy wonk.  Expect him to focus on policy, but still be involved.

Michigan-Right to Work: President Obama has entered the fight regarding Michigan becoming a right to work state.  He obviously opposes it and local Democrats are happy he got involved in the battle unlike the Wisconsin battles of 2011 and 2012.

NRCC: The new Congress has not been seated yet, but the NRCC is busy raising funds.  The lavishness of the fundraiser seems to be drawing criticism.

Latinos: One aspect of the Democratic strength among Latinos is the strength of local candidates in 2010.  Specifically, Harry Reid and Michael Bennet served as blueprints for what the Obama campaign did in 2012.

RNC: Trying to figure out what went wrong in 2012, the RNC is bringing together a Growth and Opprotunity project.  This group of party officials and former party officials will look at several areas for strengths and weaknesses.

Obama: As Barack Obama cannot run for President again, who will inherit his massive voter database?  Nobody wants the list to disappear, but the exact details are being worked out now.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for December 11, 2012
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Political Roundup for December 11, 2012 | 121 comments
MI School Districts Closed for Protest
School districts in Taylor, Warren, and Fitzgerald are closed after too many teachers took the day off to protest. For the children, you see.

http://www.michigancapitolconf...

At least not in Detroit
The murder rate would have spiked.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
You're actually assuming
kids enrolled in Detroit Public Schools attend class?

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Wonderful
Americans for Prosperity tent is the center of activity. Union protesters starting to tear tent down.
https://twitter.com/shawnwinds...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
And
Tent is down. Footage of collapse no doubt internet material for both sides to rile up their bases.
https://twitter.com/shawnwinds...

Of course, the media will report about "peaceful" union protests.

Earlier:
Guy rolls out of Americans for Prosperity tent. "That wheelchair is probably union made," a protester sneers.
https://twitter.com/shawnwinds...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Sadly, it's expected from these knuckle-draggers
Also, bullying a RTW supporter in a wheelchair.
[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov; Buono set to announce she's running today
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Cory Booker who?

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Why run in a contested up-hill governor's race when you can have a senate seat almost for free?
Is there any speculation that Booker wants to just keep his current job?

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
I get why Booker would pass on a gubernatorial race
My comment was a joke about Buono not waiting until Booker announced his plans.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Haha: got it.
I think the bigger question is whether he runs for senate or stays mayor of Newark. He's had opportunities to run for governor (2005 and 2009) and senate (it's not as though Manendez was a power-house in 2006, or Lautenberg in 2008 for that matter).  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
It will be interesting to see if he passes on both
He might get labeled as the most risk adversed pol in the country. Although that might mean he wants to be governor and will wait for an opening in 2017.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Live MI coverage
A pivotal day in America.
http://live.freep.com/Event/Mi...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Public worker RTW bill being voted on now
Only 4 amendments offered by Dems, according to Rep. McMillin's Facebook page
[ Parent ]
Wait, is the bill only for public workers?
I thought that the bill was for full-fledged RTW, public and private.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
The public worker RTW bill has passed, 58-51
RTW is being passed in two pieces, one for public workers (just passed and headed to the Governor's desk), and the second for private sector workers.

Debate and voting on the private sector bill begins very soon.

[ Parent ]
Why separate?
Faster? Senate passed already?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Not sure why the bills were passed separately
I believe there were some legal issues that argued for separation of the bills.

Also, my understanding is that the House vote today was in concurrence with the Senate bill passed last week (similar to the U.S. House vote to accept verbatim the Obamacare bill), which obviates the need to have a conference committee or other wrangling over differences in the bills.

[ Parent ]
Second part SB116
Passes 58-52.
1 D was absent earlier.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Does the senate still need to vote?
This part is also headed to one tough nerd.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
More
Republicans ask for a reconsideration of #righttowork, which means they'll control the debate and final vote tomorrow.
So final passage on private sector bill delayed till tomorrow. #righttowork. Bill passed 58-52 and will head to @onetoughnerd Wednesday.

Why exactly are they doing this?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Democratic lawmaker says "there will be blood"
http://times247.com/articles/m...

Why is it when Democrats call for violence people shrug and say that he didn't mean it, but if a Republican says something it's dog whistle for something that never happens.

I don't understand opposition to RTW other than it may selfishly benefit one person to deny someone else their rights.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I drink your milkshake!
I drink it up!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Ah
The reconsideration request was made to keep Dems from doing the same thing. They can withdraw request today and bill heads to @onetoughnerd
https://twitter.com/michpoligal

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Yep
It's a done deal. Pending Snyder's signature (and him not caving to strike the appropriation via line-item veto), this is the proudest I've been of Michigan politicians in my lifetime. About time someone had the courage.
[ Parent ]
Video of the D violence
http://www.breitbart.com/Breit...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
SC-GOV
Nikki Haley trails Vincent Sheheen in a hypothetical rematch...full results coming up - PPP

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

SC-GOV
Sheheen +2
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

SC-SEN
Graham leads Tom Davis by 50 points.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Not shocking
Nobody knows who he is right now.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
[ Parent ]
Why I wanted Haley to run for Senate
Barring a miracle she'll win the primary and lose the general.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
She needs to appoint Scott and then run against Graham


28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Isn't her press availability in like an hour?
Will be interested to see if she actually announces Scott today. If no announcement, then it might either not be Scott, or she could still be undecided.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
The NBC news blog says she won't announce today
And then there is this: http://www.fitsnews.com/2012/1...

Plus, Scott says he hasn't heard from Haley or anyone from her office.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
*headdesk*
On this polling numbers for her and the suggestion that Scott hasn't heard from he ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
I don't think she'll lose
When push comes to shove, I just don't believe people in SC will pull the trigger for a statewide Dem.
[ Parent ]
You underestimate how much Haley is despised
by the good-old-boy wing. It's a minority of Republicans (probably 25-30%) but they're sick of 12 years of Sanfordite governors and more than willing to put in a Democrat instead.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
The Thing is
That group already voted against Haley in 2010.  It's why she won by such a small amount in the otherwise great R year.

It's not like she under-performed generally in 2010 and now a key segment of the R base is deserting her.  They already did.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
too early to worry or not worry
PPP's record two years out is spotty at best (though it's not their fault as 2 years is forever).  Some that I just randomly found leading up to the 2010 midterm.  I tried to find only Gov races at least a year before the election:

http://www.publicpolicypolling...
Malloy up 11 over Foley
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
Denish up 14 on Martinez
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
Strickland up 6 on Kasich
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
Ritter (!) up 14 on Tancredo
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
Quinn up 7 on Brady
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
Goddard up 10 on Brewer

So to read about hand-wringing at this stage is disappointing!

[ Parent ]
It's likely to come down to what kind of year 2014 is
There aren't enough minorities and white liberals in South Carolina for Democrats to win on their votes alone. If the old Blue Dog coalition is open to voting for a Democrat in 2014, Shaheen can win. If it's an atmosphere like 2010, Graham and the DeMint replacement will drag Haley across the line.
[ Parent ]
OR congress
OR-2 goes from 54-43 McCain to 57-40 Romney.

OR-4 went from 54-43 Obama to 52-45.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

And Walden won by 40
It's only R+10.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Speaking of OR-2
Wes Cooley is off to jail. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
SC-Sen; Haley's reported final five
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

"Her final choices for the seat are Rep. Tim Scott, Rep. Trey Gowdy, former state Attorney General Henry McMaster, former South Carolina First Lady Jenny Sanford and Catherine Templeton, a conservative attorney chosen by Haley to head the state Department of Health and Environmental Control."

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Wow: Gowdy is IIRC even more conservative than Scott.
Uber-big-time so-con if I remember right.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
My guess
Is that she put this list out to reach out to every element of the GOP. I don't think Gowdy and Tempelton are seriously being considered. And although she has some loyalties towards Sanford and McMaster for helping her win the nomination in 2010, it will be tough to pass on Scott after all of the hype from conservatives. It would devastate her reelection prospects if she goes with an establishment figure like McMaster.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Templeton is from Mount Pleasont, which is in Scott's district
She could be an interesting candidate.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
NC by CD
Big swing in NC-11.
https://docs.google.com/spread...

NC-9 didn't trend further D.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I continue to worry about 13
If it comes open at a bad time it could be problematic.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but the Democratic base is fractured.
Half the district wants a suburban liberal. The other half wants a rural moderate. Oil, meet water.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
meh
55% Romney is not really close, we even won the Wake County portion of the district.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
MI
House passes HB4033 bill 58-51

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

PPP NC-SEN
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

PPP Gems
Love this line at the end of the write-up;

"Republicans will need a strong candidate to take advantage and right now it's not clear who that is."

I am truly shocked the GOP doesn't have a frontrunner, with the election a bare 23 months away!

[ Parent ]
He does have a point though
There isn't a popular ex-Governor or dominant Congressman who's the clear A-list recruit. (See: Rounds, Capito.) I'm interested to see how Moran approaches this race.
[ Parent ]
I'm convinced an outsider is needed here
And preferably one that could self fund.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
The first name that comes to my mind is Art Pope,
but he's almost definitely too controversial to win.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
rougemapper mentioned James P. Cain
I wonder if he's interested? He could be a good fit.
[ Parent ]
Tillis
Is anyone surprised Thom Tillis isn't polling better in the GOP primary since he is the Speaker of the House? I am, at least regarding his low poll numbers in the 704 area code which includes Charlotte. Granted, they included former mayor of Charlotte and longtime Congresswoman Sue Myrick but she's retiring in January and her running for a United States Senate at her age (71) is very unlikely. Even when Myrick's inclusion in the polling is taken into account, I still would think Tillis would get more than 2% in the 704 area code because he represents part of the area and has held town hall meetings across the state.
[ Parent ]
Ask random people
who their speaker of the house is. Heck, I know the names of all 535 members of congress, all governors, and almost all statewide officials - and I'd be hard-pressed to name more than a dozen state house speakers.

State legislators just generally don't get much buzz on their own, even with town hall meetings. His name rec will increase once he actually declares and people start covering him as a candidate for senate rather than just a state legislator.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure Robert DiLeo is Speaker of the House in MA
But there's a small chance that he's been indicted in the time it took to post this.
[ Parent ]
CA-21
Obama won it 54-43. PVI got a few points bluer in 2012.
Valadao will be targeted hard.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

High minority turnout
It won't be there in 2014. Valadao is safe for the moment.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
so Romney ends up with 12 CA congressional districts?
Our 15 minus Denham, Valadao, Miller?

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Yep
41-12

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
McCain won 11 of the old districts in 2008
He won 10 of the current districts. Romney won CA-25 and CA-49, both of which were Obama districts in 2008. Romney actually showed significant increases in some Republican districts.

CA-1: +3.6%
CA-4: +4.3%
CA-22: +1.3%
CA-23: +0.6%
CA-25: +1.4%
CA-39: +1.4%
CA-42: +2.6%
CA-45: +4.2%
CA-49: +3.3%
CA-50: +2.4%

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Heh
Saw your sig change. That must have hurt to change. I refuse to put IL-09 in my sig.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Source
I don't have final Fresno numbers but my estimation of them gives the district 52.2%-46.6%. Valadao got 59% in Fresno. For it to be 54%-43%, Romney would've needed to get about 46%. That's possible, but would be surprising since so many of the Obama precincts in Fresno are in CA-16.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
DKE from official numbers


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I apologize
I hadn't see this when I posted below about CA-21.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
PPP KY
Kentucky Senate numbers coming up...Mitch McConnell has a 37/55 approval rating but still leads all the Democrats we tested against him

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

IL
Federal appeals court tosses state ban on carrying concealed weapons.
http://blogs.suntimes.com/poli...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

IL-15
Went from 55% McCain to 64% Romney.

26, R, PA-01.



The swing in IL
Was mostly from downstate. It was trending R already in 2008.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
CA shifting population
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/n...

Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Orgeon and they take their failed voting policies with them beware

[ Parent ]
I suspect that those who move to TX and AZ
vote different than those that move to NV, CO, OR.  

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't assume
I know AZ gets its fair share of liberal transplants.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Tuscon and Flagstaff?
NT

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Yes, but also in the Phoenix area
I've met so many people who were originally from another state within the decade.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Obama's voter database
Will probably go to the highest bider.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
Obama's voter database
Was probably already promised to Hillary in exchange for Bill's unreserved campaign support.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
CA outmigration
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/n...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Mark Schauer pepper sprayed
https://twitter.com/MIRSnews/s...

27, Republican, PA-6
He was violent probably
Only one person got the taste.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
From the police
The spray was deployed because a crowd grabbed a hold of a trooper and would not release.

https://twitter.com/MichStateP...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
the press won't show this
video cameras are fine but Republicans/Conservatives need to fight back  
[ Parent ]
It's too late....
ABC's Brian Ross has already described the tent attackers as members of the Tea Party.

Bob Costas will devote 90 seconds on the next SNF to America's dangerous tent culture.

[ Parent ]
Haley finalizes short list for DeMint seat
Her final choices for the seat are Rep. Tim Scott, Rep. Trey Gowdy, former state Attorney General Henry McMaster, former South Carolina First Lady Jenny Sanford and Catherine Templeton

Rep. Mick Mulvaney, who expressed interest, isn't on the list. I wonder if whoever doesn't get it will want to do a primary challenge.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Templeton
From what I've read, she looks like she'd be a good pick. McMaster and Sanford would be the only disappointing picks to me. The other three are equally as acceptable.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Nope, it's gotta be Scott
People will be disappointed, including me, if it's not.

The others are completely meh. Scott gives us so much more, and Haley would get a nice chit for the appointment. It makes too much sense not to happen.  

Born: CA-22 (Nunes); Just Left: CA-12 (Pelosi); Now: CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Strange mentality
Why does it have to be Scott? What makes him any better than Mulvaney and Gowdy? No one would describe them as "meh." All three have been absolute rock stars during their freshman class.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Cut it out
You know very well what it is. Identity politics is a fact of life in this country, and we are not going to have a repeat of the Love Wars. The issue has been litigated to death, move on.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Mulvaney and Gowdy
From what I've heard about them (and I've heard Mulvaney speak a handful of times), they are not as interested in moving up in the Washington scene as is Scott. Mulvaney has adolescent triplets and seems like he doesn't want to be in Congress for a long time. He advocated for term limits at a recent forum I attended. Gowdy has been characterized in the media as not being enamored with his position and I think he would prefer to be a prosecutor like he was before he went to Congress. Maybe he would prefer to be a United States Attorney when a Republican president gets in office.
[ Parent ]
PPP KY
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

CA-21: Obama got 55.6% of the two way share
That's D+4 in 2012. The seat was R+0 in 2008. Bush got 57% here in 2004. Strange things are afoot at in the Central Valley.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
That's not strange at all
What's strange is that Valadao got a free ride.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
His margin despite this
Suggests that he would have won anyway. By less, yes. Which is why Ds conceded the seat.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Not surprising
considering the Democrat pretty much had little to no money in his campaign coffers.

I expect Dems to mount a strong challenge in 2014, This is one of 3 seats so far that has Republican in a D+ PVI

[ Parent ]
Source?
I asked this upthread but I'll ask it again. Do you have a source on this? For that to happen Obama needs to get about 54% in the Fresno portion of the district. That's possible, but Valadao won the Fresno part in a landslide.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
fresno county
the statement of vote for fresno county has been uploaed to the agenda of the board of supervisors for the meetin on 12-11-2012  A Dr. Phillips has posted his % derived from such Statement of vote at dkos-elections on todays live digest.  

I posted the web page here last night.

[ Parent ]
That's a great source
I didn't see the breakdowns in it like there are in other statement of vote documents. I assume he went precinct by precinct and assigned them. I'd like to see his vote breakdown by congressional/senate/assembly district.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Leslie County, KY
What causes a county that doesn't have any RRH members living there to give Obama 8.7%?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

These good folks
http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-pro...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
French right falls apart
Link: http://welections.wordpress.co...

The UMP is stuck in a weird and confusing situation as things currently stands. It remains united as a political party, but only half or so of the party recognizes the party's de facto leader as the legitimate leader. The other half of the party remains in the party, but still does not recognize the legitimacy of the party's de facto leader. What is the way forward?


(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
I sense a split
A more traditional Christian right like the German CDU, and a classical liberal party like the German Free Democrats.
[ Parent ]
The problem being of course
they won't want to cooperate together against the left, they'll want to jockey for position to become the main party of the center-right, which spells bad new bears electorally for both factions.

In any case, the Christian Right would be flanked by the FN on their right and the MoDems on their left, and there's just really no large potential base for a classical liberal party. If the UMP starts splitting up it won't be able to do so so neatly, once there's no dominant party it's just going to be a four-way free for all between the MoDems, FN, Cope faction, and Fillon faction.

It's also not ideologically clear cut; Fillon is a moderate, but a euroskeptic aligned with Sarkozy, Cope is a "liberal", but not a socially moderate-to-liberal business type who would play well in the suburbs. He's a socially and culturally conservative firebrand who was supported by much of the Gaullist right-wing faction. There are also many non-aligned MPs; many of whom are the real socially moderate liberals you're thinking of. Will they start a fifth center-right party, or will they just join New Centre? Either way that makes five parties and counting with roughly equal support and no dynamic leaders among them.

All of this works to the electoral benefit of the left, and the entirety UMP realizes that. No matter how much they hate and distrust each other, they know they have to find a way to work this out inter-UMP. The UMP splitting up remains unlikely in my opinion, unless Fillon and Cope really do care about nothing but their own presidential ambitions.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
NY amigo update
Former state senator Hiram Monserrate sentenced to 24 months in prison for mail fraud.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Snyder blames unions for RTW
http://www.politico.com/story/...

I suspect he is telling the truth.  Snyder does not care about hot button issues unless others make them important to him.

27, Republican, PA-6

Weird
that the UAW President talks about abortion.  How many of his members are pro-life?

(MO-7) Voted for Brunner in MO GOP Senate primary
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin legislature
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

https://docs.google.com/spread...

Amazing gerrymander.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

The maps are a gerrymander
But like a lot of the Midwest the state is a natural gerrymander for Republicans

Dane County + Milwaukee City
Population- 1,082,906 (19%)
Vote- Obama 443,881 (76%) to 140,331 (24%)

Rest of the State
Population- 4,604,080 (81%)
Vote- Romney 1,270,635 (52%) to 1,177,104 (48%)



R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
How about after dropping MKE?


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee is removed already
The rest of Milwaukee County isn't worth throwing out though
Obama 104,628 (51.6%)
Romney 98,237 (48.4%)

The margin of victory is 6,391, provided entirely by Shorewood (Wealthy Liberals), West Milwaukee (30% Hispanic), and Brown Deer (30% Black).  

R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Missed
The MKE part in your above comment.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Shorewood is not all that wealthy
Median household income is $47,224, compared to the US average of $41,994. Parts of town are more wealthy than others, though, but there's not much extravagance there.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Indeed you are correct!
After looking at parts of Shorewood through Google Maps, I realized why I thought Shorewood was merely just the more liberal version of "Whitefolks" Bay. I only traveled through Shorewood along North Lake Drive. Very different from the rest of town.

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Merrimackman
Just FYI, I posted a pretty thorough response to your comment on my Lower Merion diary a few days ago. If you have any thoughts, let me know through a reply. If not, no worries. I just may have made some wrong assumptions about MA.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
This makes me wonder actually
Doesn't the Democrat self-packing give them an advantage in close statewide races? They can reach a tremendous proportion of their base with a limited amount of infrastructure.

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
in terms of going door to door?
I would say so.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Definitely
Anyone whose done door to door in rural, suburban, and urban areas will tell you it is a lot easier to cover urban and suburban areas compared to rural areas.  When I was with the Hillsdale CRs we could cover the City of Hillsdale within 6 hours, but it would take us days to cover a similar number of voters in the nearby rural townships.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
LOL at the state Reps. in Dale Schultz's state Senate district
Schultz's district (SD17) is D+5. There are 3 Assembly districts per state Senate seat in Wisconsin. The 3 Assembly seats in Schultz's district are:

AD49: state Rep. Travis Tranel (D+5)
AD50: state Rep. Ed Brooks (D+3)
AD51: state Rep. Howard Marklein (D+8)

All of them are Republicans, although moderate ones. When Schultz retires, at least one of them will surely run. Basing on the 2012 PVI, I'll say the best candidate would be state Rep. Howard Marklein. He would do best among the most Democratic parts of the SD17, and surely the Republicans will vote for him than a Democratic candidate, and the Independents like moderates.    

[ Parent ]
Interesting
How much did they get this year?

Someone pointed out that Rs won the generic vote if you only count the D on R races.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for December 11, 2012 | 121 comments
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