Liberal Democratic Party (LDP):
District vote: 43.01% (+4.33%)
Proportional Block vote: 27.79% (+1.06%)
Seats: 294 (+176)
New Komeito (NKP):
District vote: 1.49% (+0.38%)
Proportional Block vote: 11.9% (+0.45%)
Seats: 31 (+10)
Total LDP-NKP:
District vote: 44.49% (+4.65%)
Proportional Block vote: 39.69% (+1.43%)
Seats: 325 (+185)
Despite only a 4+% swing in their favor, the LDP went from 64 district seats to 237. This is a function of the divided opposition, but also of an effective and longstanding LDP gerrymander, which has resulted in gross malapportionment over time. (The most populous district has more than 10 times the population of the least populous.)
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ):
District vote: 22.81% (-24.62%)
Proportional Block vote: 15.49% (-26.92%)
Seats: 57 (-173)
People's New Party (PNP):
District vote: 0.20% (-0.84%)
Proportional Block vote: 0.12% (-1.61%)
Seats: 1 (-2)
Total DPJ-PNP:
District vote: 23.01% (-25.46%)
Proportional Block vote: 15.61% (-28.53%)
Seats: 58 (-175)
The DPJ was badly punished for their tenure. Rather than overperform, as we've seen unpopular governments do in Europe in recent years, they apparently received a much smaller portion of undecideds than the LDP or JRP.
Japan Restoration Party (JRP):
District vote: 11.64% (new party)
Proportional Block vote: 20.50% (new party)
Seats: 54 (+43)
Although the JRP came in a clear second in terms of the proportional vote, they were annihilated in the district vote, and failed to overtake the DPJ as the second largest party. The JRP tended to poll third in the proportional vote however, so this can be considered something of a pyrrhic victory for them.
Your Party (YP):
District vote: 4.71% (+3.84%)
Proportional Block vote: 8.77% (+4.5%)
Seats: 18 (+10)
After the LDP, YP is unquestionably the second biggest winner of this election. The party has benefited from the natural benefits of being perpetually in opposition, as well as from their perceived distance and refusal to compromise with other parties. Their vote is indicative of both Japan's turn right in this election, and voters exasperation with traditional parties and politicians.
Tomorrow Party of Japan (TPJ)*:
District vote: 5.02% (new party)
Proportional Block vote: 5.72% (new party)
Seats: 9 (-52)
*The Tomorrow Party of Japan is the party referred to in my preview as the Japan Future Party (JFP.) Since the publishing of that preview, the party has officially requested its name be translated into english as the Tomorrow Party and I will abide by that request.
The jury is still out on this result. The Tomorrow Party of Japan performed about in line with expectations; unfortunately for them, expectations weren't very high. The party survived, not quite irrelevant, but failing to break into the upper-tier of parties. Little has changed for Ozawa and friends, with their new party straddling the line between relevancy and irrelevancy, much as the TPJ and Ozawa's faction have been for some time.
Japanese Communist Party (JCP):
District vote: 7.88% (+3.66%)
Proportional Block vote: 6.17% (-0.86%)
Seats: 8 (-1)
Like the JRP, the JCP failed in the tangible goals, but there's good news for the party reading between the lines. The party saw a strong increase in district results, despite running fewer district candidates than in '09. The party suffered slightly in the proportional vote at the hands of the plethora of new parties contesting, but held up considerably better than the SDP and other archaic leftist parties. Overall, the party received many more overall votes than in the 2009 election.
Nonetheless, internal strategic reforms are needed in the party. The JCP insists, on principle, on spending all of its money paying monetary deposits to run as many candidates as possible. This is a huge, unnecessary drain on the party's resources (no party files more candidates than they have to; the DPJ, for example, didn't even pay to have a candidate in enough districts to hypothetically be able to win a majority, after it became clear they weren't going to get one.) If the party was willing to re-prioritize its resources to focus on winnable constituencies (as the Canadian Greens are demonstrating), they could have potentially captured as many seats as Your Party.
Social Democratic Party (SDP):
District vote: 0.76% (-1.19%)
Proportional Block vote: 2.38% (-1.89%)
Seats: 2 (-3)
The environmentalist SDP suffered particularly harshly with the rise the TPJ. In an election where voters looked to new parties and leaders, the SDP was the old guard to the current old guard. They were left behind.
New Party Nippon (NPN):
District vote: 0.53% (+0.22%)
Proportional Block vote: 0.58% (-0.17%)
Seats: 1 (-2)
NPN is one of the tiny "postal reform rebel" parties formed by former LDP MPs during Koizumi's tenure. They were briefly in government with the DPJ after the '09 election. NPN leader Yasuo Tanaka unexpectedly clung to his district seat.
Miscellaneous Independents:
District vote: 1.69% (-1.12%)
Proportional Block vote: no Proportional Block vote
Seats: 5 (-4) |
