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House 2014 - Democratic held seats

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 23:43:56 PM EST


Which seats could flip in 2014? Retirements will change any list, putting otherwise safe seats into play. We don't know what those will be, so we'll look at the close 2012 races. I've included any race that was within 7.5 and those that are D+3 or better.

There are only 9 Democratic seats that Romney won.

Left Coast Libertarian :: House 2014 - Democratic held seats
Romney seats
NC-7 - Mike Mcintyre 50.1%-49.9%, Romney 58.7%-40.1%
McIntyre will clearly be challenged and the GOP will want to find a top challenger. Vulnerability: High

UT-4 - Jim Matheson 48.8%-48.5%, Romney 67.2%-30.2%
Matheson will be a target every cycle until he goes down. Vulnerability: High

GA-12 - John Barrow 53.7%-46.3%, Romney 55.4%-43.6%
Georgia Republicans did all they could to get rid of John Barrow. The district is favorable. They just need a candidate who can win. Vulnerability: High

FL-18 - Patrick Murphy 50.3%-49.7%, Romney 51.7%-47.6%
Allen West turned in a disappointing performance. West ran 3,000 votes behind Mitt Romney in St. Lucie County and 5,000 behind in Martin county. He finished 2,000 behind. I like Allen West but another candidate probably will win the district. Vulnerability: High

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick 48.8%-45.1%, Romney 50.5%-47.9%  
The district will be a top target in 2014. Vulnerability: High

AZ-2 - Ron Barber 50.4%-49.6%, Romney 49.9%-48.4%
This was a bit of a surprise. The GOP couldn't take the old AZ-8 and this district was supposed to be more Democratic. McSally should take another shot if she's game. Vulnerability: High

WV-3 - Nick Rahall 53.9%-46.1%, Romney 65.0%-32.8%  
Eventually Republicans will figure out how to take down Rahall. Vulnerability: Mid

TX-23 Pete Gallego 50.3%-45.5%, Romney 50.8%-48.0%
There'll be new lines in 2014 and those lines may make Gallego safe. Vulnerability: Mid

MN-7 Colin Peterson 60.4%-34.9%, Romney 53.9%-44.1%
This seat isn't in danger as long as Peterson is running. Vulnerability: Low

Obama seats
FL-26 - Joe Garcia 53.6%-43.0%, Obama 53.1%-46.4%
It's a D+1.5 seat but it's a traditionally Republican area. The GOP should have a good shot to win this back with a non-scandal ridden candidate. Or maybe the Democrats finally have a Hispanic district in South Florida. Vulnerability: High

NY-21 - Bill Owens 50.2%-48.2%, Obama 51.5%-47.0% (estimated)
Owens finally managed to clear 50%, just barely. Another perennial target until he goes down. Vulnerability: High

CA-52 - Scott Peters 51.2%-48.8%, Obama 52.1%-45.7%
This is a district where Republicans hold a registration edge. California has several inviting targets and it remains to be seen if the GOP really has a shot at them. Vulnerability: High

CA-7 - Ami Bera 51.7%-48.3%, Obama 50.7%-46.9%
This district was trending Republican, but that didn't help the GOP this year. It also didn't help that Democratic outside spending dwarfed Republicans spending. Vulnerability: High

NY-18 - Sean Patrick Maloney 51.7%-48.3%, Obama TBD
Like other Upstate New York seats, this one will be fought over for the next deade. Vulnerability: High

NH-1 - Carol Shea-Porter 49.8%-46.0%, Obama 50.2%-48.6
She doesn't get a lot of respect but she once again won the more Republican seat. This seat is too enticing not to go after, although you have to think that this district will continue to swing. Vulnerability: High

AZ-9 - Kyrsten Sinema 48.8%-44.7%, Obama 51.1%-46.6%
Barack Obama won here by 4 points in 2008, so there wasn't a lot expected of Vernon Parker. I hope he'll be back to try again in 2014. Vulnerability: High

CT-5 - Elizabeth Esty 51.3%-48.7%, Obama 53.5%-45.3%
I thought Andrew Roraback would take it, but he may take another shot in 2014. Connecticut has been tough for the GOP and this might be the best they can do. Vulnerability: Mid

IL-10 - Brad Schneider 50.6%-49.4%, Obama 57.5%-41.1%
Can anyone other than Bob Dold challenge for the seat? The GOP will want to consider that if he passes. Vulnerability: Mid

NY-1 - Tim Bishop 52.4%-47.6%, Obama 50.6%-48.2% estimated
Like McIntyre, Matheson, and Owens Republicans will challenge Bishop every cycle until they win. Not that Bishop will go down easy. Vulnerability: Mid

NH-2 - Ann McLane Kuster 50.2%-45.4%, Obama 54.2%-44.5%  
She will be challenged, just not by Charlie Bass. Vulnerability: Mid

CA-26 - Julia Brownley 52.7%-47.3%, Obama 54.0%-43.7%
The Obama numbers suggest this'll be a tough district, but Tony Strickland kept it closer than those would suggest. I think he will take another shot. Vulnerability: Mid

CA-36 - Raul Ruiz 52.9%-47.1%, Obama 50.7%-47.5%
Mary Bono Mack had survived all her previous challenges. Is Ruiz a strong giant killer in a district that's trending blue or is he lucky to have run in a Democratic year with the GOP's long bench is ready to beat him? Vulnerability: Mid

IL-12 - Bill Enyart 51.7%-42.7% Obama 49.7%-48.2%
This is a traditionally Democratic district, but it's R+1, not D+7 like IL-17. Vulnerability: Mid

NY-24 - Dan Maffei 48.9%-43.4%, Obama 57.3%-40.8% (estimated)
Republicans have beaten Maffei once with a candidate that wasn't highly regarded. They'll try again in 2014. If those Obama-Romney numbers are right, it's an uphill climb. Vulnerability: Low

IL-17 - Cheri Bustos 53.3%-46.7%, Obama 57.6%-40.6%
This is a traditionally Democratic district and it's one that is more Democratic than the one Bobby Schilling won. I'm skeptical this district will be high priority. Vulnerability: Low

MA-6 - John Tierney 48.3%-47.2%, Obama 55.1%-43.9% (estimated)
This'll be fool's gold. Republicans had the best candidate they could get, Tierney's family issues will fade, and Scott Brown won't be on the ticket. Vulnerability: Low

OR-5 - Kurt Schrader 54.1%-42.5%, Obama 50.5%-47.1%
The GOP hasn't shown much fight in Oregon, but it's difficult to completely dismiss a district with an even PVI. Vulnerability: Low

MN-1 - Tim Walz 57.6%-42.4%, Obama 49.6%-48.2%
Like OR-5 the GOP hasn't challenged Walz, but this district is R+1. Vulnerability: Low

OR-4 - Peter DeFazio 59.2%-39.1%, Obama 51.7%-45.0%
At D+1.6 it's worth mentioning but not likely to be vulnerable. Vulnerability: Low

Overall there are 13 highly vulnerable seats and 9 mid-vulnerable.

Tags: (All Tags)
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?!
CA-07: "This district was trending Republican"

Under whose measure of "trending Republican?"

CA-51: "This is a district where Republicans hold a registration edge."

Let's move away from talking about registration in California. It's proven to be worthless.


CA-7
I think he meant it moved to the right after redistricting.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Right
Democratic registration declined and Republican went up. And then online registration hit. Things reversed.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Worthless?
Please step away from the hyperbole. If registration numbers were worthless then there'd be no correlation between the vote margin and registration. The GOP lost one district where we had a registration advantage.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
AZ-9
Sad to say, but Parker's not our guy in a Sinema rematch. Not enough fire in the belly, and there are better candidates in the district.

I was really pulling for Parker last cycle, but reviews from the local Republicans I spoke with were unanimously underwhelmed by his campaign.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


Sepulveda is our best if Hallman doesn't run
Rogers is good too, but I wonder is she can raise enough money to compete. Sepulveda came in late, but got some institutional support that allowed him to get close in the end.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
MA-6
He may not have Brown at the top of the ticket, but he certainly won't have Obama. Tisei should definitely give it another try.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Richard Tisei
He also may well have Brown at the top of the ticket as the gubernatorial nominee.

[ Parent ]
Tierney
My guess is that Tierney loses his primary, and that any Democrat without his baggage would be safe.

[ Parent ]
Collin Peterson
I think Peterson is nearing retirement.  

He'll be 70 in 2014
But for a lot of these guys life in the minority is no fun. If there were a good prospect of being called "Mr. Chairman" again in the near future there would be more incentive to stick around.

[ Parent ]
"Scott Brown won't be on the ticket"
Yes he will.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Slight fix
Like McIntyre, Matheson, and Owens Republicans will challenge Bishop every cycle until they win until he retires.

Democrat, NC-11

Oh Snap
NT

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
WV-3
Rahall is personally safe until he retires or runs for higher office.
(Or until a lot of new voters get introduced to his seat following 2020 census and existing #2 split between existing #1 & #3)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

California shows us...
You don't need great party infrastructure or a candidate with a long resume if you have the voters. Democrats won here in places they'd never won before simply because there were finally more Democratic voters in the districts. The PVI in Rahall's district has gone from R+3 to R+10 to R+18 in the last three elections. The PVI in the other two West Virginia districts hasn't increased by nearly as much.

Districts in traditionally Democratic states that have moved to Republicans on a national level have fallen to the GOP on a congressional level. Some fell in 1994 and some have fallen in subsequent years, but Democrats no longer hold any Romney seats in the traditionally Democratic areas in TX, SC, FL, AL, MS, AR, LA, OK, TN, VA, PA, OH, or KY. Barrow, McIntyre, and Rahall are the last of them.

I don't know if he's in real danger in 2014, but in an R+18 district he will be looking over his shoulder.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
the current R+18 at presidential has more to do with Obama's personal unpopularity in WV
War on Coal, and WV-3 may very well be the congressional district in the country with the most coal mines.

Look at the other seats in areas that moved:

TN-06: Gordon kept it D at congressional until he retired
TN-08: Tanner kept it D at congressional until he retired
The Little Dixie seat in Oklahoma: The Democratic incumbent kept it D at congressional until he retired

In seats we took over this year against a D incumbent: A lot of new voters to the district introduced. (That was also the intention for Barrow & McIntyre but didn't quite work.)

If Rahall retires this year (or runs for higher office), yes Republicans have a very good shot, otherwise Rahall is highly likely to hold onto it. Following 2020 when WV loses a seat, that would be a lot of new voters, along the lines of what Texas did during a mid-decade redistricting in the 2000s.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Trend
Many of the other ones went to the GOP through defeating incumbents.

It's impossible to separate 2008 and 2012 Presidential numbers from Obama, this isn't just a WV/coal thing. It's a White working class thing. Rahall may hold the seat for the next four elections, but he's vulnerable.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
War on Coal
I know RRH is a place to discuss elections, not policy, but aren't the troubles of the coal industry mostly due to the glut of natural gas? Nat gas is so cheap coal can't compete.

[ Parent ]
CT-04
After Obama hoses the rich (and Himes goes along with it) I think that Himes is going to be more vulnerable than Rahall.
Remember: outside of Bridgeport, CT-04 was R+1 this year.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

I doubt it
If Obama "hoses the rich" It will likely be a compromise level like $500k up, so I doubt it kills him THAT much in Himes district.  But I could be wrong.

What is the GOP bench like there?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
"Outside of Bridgeport"
Unfortunately, the "Outside of Bridgeport" section of the district is attached to the city of Bridgeport, which is at least D+30 and probably higher than that.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
CT-04 in an off year
The seat is probably ~D+1.5 in a midterm, which is certainly winnable if Himes soaks the rich (and this seat is really wealthy outside of Bridgeport and Stamford).

I'm going to have a CT-04 diary coming out soon that shows just how hard it trended to the right outside of Bridgeport this past year.


[ Parent ]
Other NY metro seats could fall off fiscal cliff
NY3 is a very affluent district with low D PVI; Israel had a poorly funded 2012 opponent

NY18's revolving door history wont be slowed down by upset wealthy voters

NY17 & NJ 6 have wealthy pockets too but D PVI puts them out of reach but for vacant/damaged incumbent scenarios  


[ Parent ]
IL-10
Can anyone other than Bob Dold challenge for the seat? The GOP will want to consider that if he passes.

No. No one else can win. The only path to victory for the GOP in IL-10 is Schneider being a bold progressive, being invisible in the district, Obama being unpopular, and Bob running.


NY 21
21st obama new york total
clinton 18961 11115 501 30577
essex 10254 6647 273 17174
franklin 9894 5740 249 15883
fulton 8607 10814 325 19746
hamilton 1128 1932 53 3113
jefferson 17099 18122 487 35708
lewis 4724 5651 147 10522
st. lawrence 21353 15138 576 37067
warren 14806 14119 589 29514
washington 11523 11085 448 23056
herkimer pt 1593 2351 78 4022
saratoga pt 3912 3793 147 7852
123854 106507 3873 234234
52.87% 45.47%

I used the ny secretary of state, and looked up the counties for split counties



So it turned hard left?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
turne
I wouldnt say it turned hard left, but it does confirm its status as a contestble seat, tilting left.

I do note that Obama did better than Owens, showing that at a lower level Rs do better


[ Parent ]
ny 21 easier to read.
21st         obama  romney  other  total
clinton      18961  11115   501    30577
essex        10254   6647   273    17174
franklin      9894   5740   249    15883
fulton        8607  10814   325    19746
hamilton      1128   1932    53     3113
jefferson    17099  18122   487    35708
lewis         4724   5651   147    10522
st. lawrence 21353  15138   576    37067
warren       14806  14119   589    29514
washington   11523  11085   448    23056
herkimer pt   1593   2351    78     4022
saratoga pt   3912   3793   147     7852
           123854 106507  3873   234234
   52.87% 45.47%


[ Parent ]
Where are your results from?
Your Essex County results don't match the county's official numbers.

http://www.co.essex.ny.us/enig...

Did you go precinct by precinct in the split counties?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
new york
non split counties I got from the secretary of state site

I obviously did dnot transcribe the number from essex correctly for obama

obama should be 9367

i went precinct by precint for the split counties

http://herkimercounty.org/cont...

official election results.
http://saratogacountyny.gov/up...

the report looks more intimidating than it is, since township results are summarized.

only two town ships, ballstown and still water are split, which you have to go to the ward level, which are provided.
              county
              total    obama   romney  other

ballston 20    5112     2071    2510    59 ballston 21    5112      267     184    21    

stillwater 20  3941      696     811    18
stillwater 21  3941     1176    1199    41  

I see now, I took the ward split wilton and used it for  saratoga county in the 21st district

saratoga should be split
             obama     romney   other  
21            19147     19757    866     40040

total votes saratoga county 106016, less 551 blank or void ballots

so the district total would by

21st      obama      romney    other   total
clinton       18961      11115     501     30577
essex          9367       6647     273     16287
franklin       9894       5740     249     15883
fulton         8607      10814     325     19746
hamilton       1128       1932      53      3113
jefferson     17099      18122     487     35708
lewis          4724       5651     147     10522
st. lawrence  21353      15138     576     37067
warren        14806      14119     589     29514
washington    11523      11085     448     23056
herkimer pt    1593       2351      78      4022
saratoga pt   19417      19757     866     40040
            138472     122471    4592    265535
            52.15%     46.12%



[ Parent ]
Elusive Targets in CA; WV-3 Ripe for Pick-up
Julia Brownley and Scott Peters can only be defeated in a wave. Brownley's Cook PVI is enough of a cushion. District fundamentals are not as favorable for Peters; however, he knows how to posture as a moderate to win over indies, even in a midterm.

Ami Bera is more vulnerable, but he still has the edge in 2014. Sacramento suburbs are trending Democratic due to an influx of Hispanics. Brown '10 and Obama '12 numbers are almost identical to Obama '08 numbers, which is even unusual in Northern CA.

Ruiz is the exception. Bono Mack didn't take her race seriously until the end; she was too busy helping her husband's fledgling senate bid in FL. Ruiz is a liberal who will have to masquerade his record so that he can run as a Blue Dog in a midterm that won't attract many Hispanics to the ballot box. This should be in our top 10, maybe top 5.

Additionally, Rahall should be a goner. He was held under 54% against a weak Republican nominee. True, Obama was on the ticket but so was Manchin. A strong Republican who runs with Capito (please, don't run, Raese) and who assails Dems on coal should win.

Ryan/Kasich 2016


California
Both Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina won CA-26. If they can win the district, a Republican congressional candidate can also. The district surely won't be easy, and shouldn't be a prime target, but it's winnable.

CA-7 was moving Republican between February 2011 and September 2012. It did move Democratic between September 2012 and October 2012, but nearly every district in California did. The PVI is D+0.2 and it was R+0.8 in 2008.

You can't look at Whitman numbers in CA-7. Whitman ran on cutting public employee pensions in 2010 and CA-7 is loaded with public employees. Carly Fiorina got 53.2% two party and Steve Cooley got 58.0%. Cooley did the same in CA-7 as he did in CA-52 and CA-10 and did better in CA-7 than he did in CA-21, 24, 26, and CA-36.

Ruiz may be a liberal but he has no legislative record that shows this. His past support Leonard Peltier certainly stung but it didn't help Bono Mack. It's a land mine that Ruiz can sidestep and not one we should emphasize.

You don't run as a Blue Dog in California and certainly not in CA-36. Blue Dog principles won't fly there. CA-36 is old, very very old. You win here appealing to seniors. We need a candidate who can turn them out.

Frankly, Peters isn't that scary. Yes, he's a moderate, but he won narrowly. Whitman and Fiorina did very well here and there are too many North County Republican votes here not to make it a priority.

CA-7, 36, and 52 should be high priorities and CA-26 should be a lower priority. The rest of California will be frustratingly fruitless.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
CA10, CA21, CA31
You will also have to defend CA10, CA21, and CA31
                          Obama  Romney
CA-10   Denham, Jeff(R)    50.6   47.0

CA21    Valadao, David(R)  54.6   43.5

CA31    Miller, Gary(R)    57.2   40.6

The problem we Democrats have in all three of these San Joaquin Valley districts is turning out our voters, or convincing them to vote down ballot, but there will be serious attempts for the next decade, and, especially near the end, are likely to be proven so.

And a longer term target
                  Obama 12  Romney 12   Obama 08  Romney 08
CA25 McKeon, Buck(R)  47.8      49.7    49   48
in this case an assembly district was just won by a democrat, to exactly how much of a democrat he is has been questioned. [he ran as a R in a prior primary]. Remember, the CA07 [lundgren] loss  was presaged 2 years ago by an encompassed assembly district.

some others within 10%, where trends may or may not have a longer term effect.
                      Obama 12  Romney 12
CA-39  Royce, Ed(R)    47.1      50.8
CA-49  Issa, Darrell(R)45.7      52.4

both of these have serious advantages of incumbency, but the seats will open up at some point.


[ Parent ]
I cover this in the next diary
They aren't going to be able to defend Miller. Valadao is in a district with strong Republican fundamentals. I expect Democrats to challenge, but the GOP should be able to defend. Denham should be okay in 2014, although he'll be challenged throughout the decade.

McKeon, Royce, and Issa are in R+3, 4, and 5 seats. We shouldn't overstate Democratic strength in California. For all the success they had the most Republican district they took had an R+0.2. Democrats have 4 non-legacy seats that are R+3 or higher, FL-18, TX-23, AZ-1, and AZ-2. None had entrenched GOP incumbents.

The seats could move left, but none really did this year. CA-39 went from R+4.8 to R+3.8. At that pace it'll take a long time to get down to R+0.2.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
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