Obama seats
CA-31 - Gary Miller, no Democrat, Obama 57.2%-40.6%
I don't have the final number on NJ-3, but this is one of only two Republican held seat that has an Obama-Romney PVI above D+1.4. I'm trying to imagine a scenario where Miller holds this seat in 2014 and the only rationale I can come up with is that Steve Cooley won here comfortably. And that seems flimsy. Vulnerability: High (Okay, extremely high)
CA-21 - David Valadao, 58.0%-42.0%, Obama 54.6%-43.5%
Valadao wasn't seriously challenged in 2012. I'm sure many Democrats think Valadao is ripe for defeat in 2014. The Central Valley is a very different area for Democrats than San Bernardino. It's an extraordinarily low turn-out district. It had the second lowest turn-out of any district in the country and the lower one had a Democrat running unopposed. The Republicans here are very conservative and turn-out. Jim Costa went to a recount in 2010 in a much more Democratic district. The Democrats don't have much of a bench. Vulnerability: Mid
CO-6 - Mike Coffman 47.8%-45.8%, Obama 51.6%-46.5%
Coffman will be a major target for Democrats, but this seat is only D+0.7. Vulnerability: Mid
NY-19 - Chris Gibson 53.5%-46.5%, Obama 51.2%-46.9% (estimated)
Gibson did better than expected and could be fairly secure in the future. Vulnerability: Mid
NJ-3 - Jon Runyan 53.7%-44.9%, Obama 52.1%-47.0% (estimated)
Runyan won comfortably against a decent opponent, but I suspect this district may have a Democratic PVI. Vulnerability: Mid
VA-2 Scott Rigell 53.8%-46.2%, Obama 49.9%-48.6%
Rigell did fairly well, but I expect the Democrats to go after him in 2014. Vulnerability: Mid
CA-10 - Jeff Denham 52.7%-47.3%, Obama 50.6%-47.0%
The Democrats put up a strong candidate, threw in a ton of independent expenditures, and didn't end up with much to show for it. Vulnerability: Mid
FL-27 - Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 60.2%-36.9%, Obama 53.0%-46.4%
Democrats have never seriously challenged her and that's unlikely to start in 2014. Vulnerability: low
WA-8 - Dave Reichert 59.7%-40.3%, Obama 49.7%-48.1%
Reichert wasn't challenged in 2012 and is unlikely to be in 2014. Vulnerability: low
FL-13 - Bill Young 57.6%-42.4%, Obama 50.1%-48.6%
As long as Young runs, Democrats won't challenge for the seat. Vulnerability: low
IA-3 - Tom Latham 52.3%-43.7%, Obama 51.4%-47.2%
Latham beat a sitting congressman by 9 points. He's unlikely to be challenged. Vulnerability: low
NV-3 - Joe Heck 50.4%-42.9%, Obama 49.5%-48.7%
Democrats went hard after him in 2012, but Heck won comfortably in an R+1.5 district. Vulnerability: low
MN-3 - Erik Paulsen 58.2%-41.8%, Obama 49.6%-48.8%
Paulsen wasn't seriously challenged. Vulnerability: low
MN-2 - Jon Kline 54.1%-45.9%, Obama 49.1%-49.0%
The race looks somewhat competitive but was John Kline in real danger? If Kline runs for the U.S. Senate it could be competitive. Vulnerability: low
NJ-2 - Frank LoBiondo 57.7%-40.3%, Obama 53.4%-45.7% (Estimated)
Has anyone ever though LoBiondo vulnerable? Vulnerability: low
NY-2 - Peter King 59.0%-41.0%, Obama 50.6%-48.3% estimated
I list this because Obama probably won here. Vulnerability: low
Romney seats
MI-1 - Dan Banishek 48.1%-47.6%, Romney 53.6%-45.3%
Romney made a big improvement over John McCain, but this one was still close. Vulnerability: High
IL-13 - Rodney Davis 46.5%-46.2%, Romney 49.0%-48.6%
The Democrats took out four Republicans. Do you think they're going to stop now? Nah. I didn't think so either. Vulnerability: High
MN-6 - Michele Bachmann 50.6%-49.4%, Romney 56.5%-41.5%
This is the most Republican district in Minnesota. There's no reason this district should be competitive. Well, there is one reason. Vulnerability: Mid
IN-2 - Jackie Walorski 49.0%-47.6%, Romney 56.1%-42.1%
If we told Joe Donnelly that this district was winnable, maybe he wouldn't have run for senate. This district was R+9. That doesn't sound like it should be competitive. Vulnerability: Mid
PA-12 Keith Rothfus 51.7%-48.3%, Romney 58.0%-40.6% (estimated)
Western Pennsylvania is getting redder and redder. It'd take someone like Critz to mount a challenge and I wouldn't dismiss the possibility. Vulnerability: Mid
MI-11 Kerry Bentivolio 50.8%-44.4%, Romney 52.3%-46.9%
If Republicans don't beat him in the primary, Democrats will give him a challenge in the general. Vulnerability: Mid
NE-2 - Lee Terry 51.2%-48.8%, Romney 53.4%-45.2%
How did a Democrat who raised such a meager amount of money get so close to beating Terry? I have no explanation but I'm sure they'll try in 2014. Vulnerability: Mid
NY-27 - Chris Collins 50.8%-49.2%, Romney 57.0%-41.2% (Estimated)
This district is very Republican. Kathy Hochul might win it back if she tried again, but it should be fairly safe otherwise. Vulnerability: low
FL-10 - Dan Webster 51.7%-48.3%, Romney 53.8%-45.7%
If the districts are redrawn, Webster might be running in a less Republican district. It shouldn't have been this close but I can't see him being challenged if the districts don't change. Vulnerability: low
NY-23 - Tom Reed 51.9%-48.1%, Romney 50.1%-47.9% (Estimated)
Romney did better here than he did in NY-19 or 22, but this one was closer. I don't see that happening in 2014. Vulnerability: low
KY-6 - Andy Barr 50.6%-46.7%, Romney 55.7%-42.2%
Now that this one has flipped it should be easy for Barr to hold. Vulnerability: low
OH-16 - Jim Renacci 52.0%-48.0%, Romney 53.4%-45.2%
Unless the Democrats run another sitting congressman against him, Renacci should be able to hold it. Vulnerability: low
FL-2 - Steve Southerland 52.7%-47.3%, Romney 52.3%-46.5%
Another former conservadem district. I think this is as close as Democrats get.
Vulnerability: low
NC-9 - Robert Pittenger 51.8%-45.7%, Romney 55.7%-43.3%
Was this just a fluke because it was an open seat or is there a real threat of a future loss? Vulnerability: low
OH-6 - Bill Johnson 53.3%-46.7%, Romney 54.9%-43.0% (Estimated)
He held off Charlie Wilson fairly well and should be safe in the future. Vulnerability: low
PA-8 - Mike Fitzpatrick 56.6%-43.4%, Romney 49.4%-49.4%
Democrats challenged Fitzpatrick but didn't put up much of a fight. Vulnerability: low
NY-22 - Richard Hanna 60.0%-40.0%, Romney 49.6%-48.4% (Estimated)
Hanna coasted while others around him struggled or lost. Vulnerability: low
VA-4 - Randy Forbes 57.0%-43.0%, Romney 50.1%-48.7%
As long as Forbes runs, Democrats won't challenge. Vulnerability: low
VA-10 - Frank Wolf 58.8%-38.4%, Romney 50.0%-48.5%
I know Democrats will see an opportunity if Wolf retires, but this district is R+2.6 and that'd be a tough pick-up in a mid-term. Vulnerability: low
WA-3 - Jaime Herrera Beutler 60.4%-39.6%, Romney 49.6%-47.9%
It wasn't worth Democrats' time in 2012. It won't be in 2014. Vulnerability: low
OH-10 - Mike Turner 59.6%-37.5%, Romney 50.1%-47.9%
One of the big Democratic triumphs in the changed Ohio districts was a more Democratic OH-10. Then they didn't try for it. Vulnerability: low
CA-25 - Buck McKeon 54.8%-45.2%, Romney 49.7%-47.8%
I could see this being vulnerable in a Presidential year after McKeon retires, but not in 2014. Vulnerability: low
Overall there are 3 highly vulnerable seats and 11 mid-vulnerable. That's much lower than the vulnerable Democrats and not enough to give them a majority even if they retained all their seats. The Democrats picked off a lot of close seats in 2012 and 2014 figures to be less favorable for them. Retirements could change things, but right now there doesn't look like much opportunity. |
