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House 2014 - Republican held seats

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 00:00:34 AM EST


As with the Democratic seats I've included any race that was within 7.5 and races with an R+3 or better PVI.
Left Coast Libertarian :: House 2014 - Republican held seats
Obama seats
CA-31 - Gary Miller, no Democrat, Obama 57.2%-40.6%
I don't have the final number on NJ-3, but this is one of only two Republican held seat that has an Obama-Romney PVI above D+1.4. I'm trying to imagine a scenario where Miller holds this seat in 2014 and the only rationale I can come up with is that Steve Cooley won here comfortably. And that seems flimsy. Vulnerability: High (Okay, extremely high)

CA-21 - David Valadao, 58.0%-42.0%, Obama 54.6%-43.5%
Valadao wasn't seriously challenged in 2012. I'm sure many Democrats think Valadao is ripe for defeat in 2014. The Central Valley is a very different area for Democrats than San Bernardino. It's an extraordinarily low turn-out district. It had the second lowest turn-out of any district in the country and the lower one had a Democrat running unopposed. The Republicans here are very conservative and turn-out. Jim Costa went to a recount in 2010 in a much more Democratic district. The Democrats don't have much of a bench. Vulnerability: Mid

CO-6 - Mike Coffman 47.8%-45.8%, Obama 51.6%-46.5%
Coffman will be a major target for Democrats, but this seat is only D+0.7. Vulnerability: Mid

NY-19 - Chris Gibson 53.5%-46.5%, Obama 51.2%-46.9% (estimated)
Gibson did better than expected and could be fairly secure in the future. Vulnerability: Mid

NJ-3 - Jon Runyan 53.7%-44.9%, Obama 52.1%-47.0% (estimated)
Runyan won comfortably against a decent opponent, but I suspect this district may have a Democratic PVI. Vulnerability: Mid

VA-2 Scott Rigell 53.8%-46.2%, Obama 49.9%-48.6%
Rigell did fairly well, but I expect the Democrats to go after him in 2014. Vulnerability: Mid

CA-10 - Jeff Denham 52.7%-47.3%, Obama 50.6%-47.0%
The Democrats put up a strong candidate, threw in a ton of independent expenditures, and didn't end up with much to show for it. Vulnerability: Mid

FL-27 - Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 60.2%-36.9%, Obama 53.0%-46.4%
Democrats have never seriously challenged her and that's unlikely to start in 2014. Vulnerability: low

WA-8 - Dave Reichert 59.7%-40.3%, Obama 49.7%-48.1%
Reichert wasn't challenged in 2012 and is unlikely to be in 2014. Vulnerability: low

FL-13 - Bill Young 57.6%-42.4%, Obama 50.1%-48.6%
As long as Young runs, Democrats won't challenge for the seat. Vulnerability: low

IA-3 - Tom Latham 52.3%-43.7%, Obama 51.4%-47.2%
Latham beat a sitting congressman by 9 points. He's unlikely to be challenged. Vulnerability: low

NV-3 - Joe Heck 50.4%-42.9%, Obama 49.5%-48.7%
Democrats went hard after him in 2012, but Heck won comfortably in an R+1.5 district. Vulnerability: low

MN-3 - Erik Paulsen 58.2%-41.8%, Obama 49.6%-48.8%
Paulsen wasn't seriously challenged. Vulnerability: low

MN-2 - Jon Kline 54.1%-45.9%, Obama 49.1%-49.0%
The race looks somewhat competitive but was John Kline in real danger? If Kline runs for the U.S. Senate it could be competitive. Vulnerability: low

NJ-2 - Frank LoBiondo 57.7%-40.3%, Obama 53.4%-45.7% (Estimated)
Has anyone ever though LoBiondo vulnerable? Vulnerability: low

NY-2 - Peter King 59.0%-41.0%, Obama 50.6%-48.3% estimated
I list this because Obama probably won here. Vulnerability: low

Romney seats
MI-1 - Dan Banishek 48.1%-47.6%, Romney 53.6%-45.3%
Romney made a big improvement over John McCain, but this one was still close. Vulnerability: High

IL-13 - Rodney Davis 46.5%-46.2%, Romney 49.0%-48.6%
The Democrats took out four Republicans. Do you think they're going to stop now? Nah. I didn't think so either. Vulnerability: High

MN-6 - Michele Bachmann 50.6%-49.4%, Romney 56.5%-41.5%
This is the most Republican district in Minnesota. There's no reason this district should be competitive. Well, there is one reason. Vulnerability: Mid

IN-2 - Jackie Walorski 49.0%-47.6%, Romney 56.1%-42.1%
If we told Joe Donnelly that this district was winnable, maybe he wouldn't have run for senate. This district was R+9. That doesn't sound like it should be competitive. Vulnerability: Mid

PA-12 Keith Rothfus 51.7%-48.3%, Romney 58.0%-40.6% (estimated)
Western Pennsylvania is getting redder and redder. It'd take someone like Critz to mount a challenge and I wouldn't dismiss the possibility. Vulnerability: Mid

MI-11 Kerry Bentivolio 50.8%-44.4%, Romney 52.3%-46.9%
If Republicans don't beat him in the primary, Democrats will give him a challenge in the general. Vulnerability: Mid

NE-2 - Lee Terry 51.2%-48.8%, Romney 53.4%-45.2%
How did a Democrat who raised such a meager amount of money get so close to beating Terry? I have no explanation but I'm sure they'll try in 2014. Vulnerability: Mid

NY-27 - Chris Collins 50.8%-49.2%, Romney 57.0%-41.2% (Estimated)
This district is very Republican. Kathy Hochul might win it back if she tried again, but it should be fairly safe otherwise. Vulnerability: low

FL-10 - Dan Webster 51.7%-48.3%, Romney 53.8%-45.7%
If the districts are redrawn, Webster might be running in a less Republican district. It shouldn't have been this close but I can't see him being challenged if the districts don't change. Vulnerability: low

NY-23 - Tom Reed 51.9%-48.1%, Romney 50.1%-47.9% (Estimated)
Romney did better here than he did in NY-19 or 22, but this one was closer. I don't see that happening in 2014. Vulnerability: low

KY-6 - Andy Barr 50.6%-46.7%, Romney 55.7%-42.2%
Now that this one has flipped it should be easy for Barr to hold. Vulnerability: low

OH-16 - Jim Renacci 52.0%-48.0%, Romney 53.4%-45.2%
Unless the Democrats run another sitting congressman against him, Renacci should be able to hold it. Vulnerability: low

FL-2 - Steve Southerland 52.7%-47.3%, Romney 52.3%-46.5%
Another former conservadem district. I think this is as close as Democrats get.
Vulnerability: low

NC-9 - Robert Pittenger 51.8%-45.7%, Romney 55.7%-43.3%
Was this just a fluke because it was an open seat or is there a real threat of a future loss? Vulnerability: low

OH-6 - Bill Johnson 53.3%-46.7%,  Romney 54.9%-43.0% (Estimated)
He held off Charlie Wilson fairly well and should be safe in the future. Vulnerability: low

PA-8 - Mike Fitzpatrick 56.6%-43.4%, Romney 49.4%-49.4%
Democrats challenged Fitzpatrick but didn't put up much of a fight. Vulnerability: low

NY-22 - Richard Hanna 60.0%-40.0%, Romney 49.6%-48.4% (Estimated)
Hanna coasted while others around him struggled or lost. Vulnerability: low

VA-4 - Randy Forbes 57.0%-43.0%, Romney 50.1%-48.7%
As long as Forbes runs, Democrats won't challenge. Vulnerability: low

VA-10 - Frank Wolf 58.8%-38.4%, Romney 50.0%-48.5%
I know Democrats will see an opportunity if Wolf retires, but this district is R+2.6 and that'd be  a tough pick-up in a mid-term. Vulnerability: low

WA-3 - Jaime Herrera Beutler 60.4%-39.6%, Romney 49.6%-47.9%
It wasn't worth Democrats' time in 2012. It won't be in 2014. Vulnerability: low

OH-10 - Mike Turner 59.6%-37.5%, Romney 50.1%-47.9%
One of the big Democratic triumphs in the changed Ohio districts was a more Democratic OH-10. Then they didn't try for it. Vulnerability: low

CA-25 - Buck McKeon 54.8%-45.2%, Romney 49.7%-47.8%
I could see this being vulnerable in a Presidential year after McKeon retires, but not in 2014. Vulnerability: low

Overall there are 3 highly vulnerable seats and 11 mid-vulnerable. That's much lower than the vulnerable Democrats and not enough to give them a majority even if they retained all their seats. The Democrats picked off a lot of close seats in 2012 and  2014 figures to be less favorable for them. Retirements could change things, but right now there doesn't look like much opportunity.  

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Very nice roundup


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Thank you
Compliment appreciated

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NJ-03 has an R PVI
It was 51-48 in 2008 and pretty close to the same in 2012.

28, R, PA-07.

Do you have the voting data on that?
The state hasn't published any breakdown.

NJ was one of the few states that Obama won by more in 2012. Since the majority minority districts are unlikely to move much, the others probably moved toward Obama.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
just a guesstimate
Obama won Burlington County by 40k. I estimate 35k for the NJ-03 portion, and a -20k for the Ocean County portion. Given 300k votes that ends up being roughly 52% Obama on the district. Either way its an R PVI.

Burlington County swung a hair to the right in this election, and Ocean moved a fraction of a point to the left. The big state swings were up north; Hudson County went from 26% McCain to 21% Romney. So the maj-min districts did move a lot.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Obama's two party vote is 51.87%
So 52% is going to be a slight D PVI.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NC-9
It's the only Romney seat where you didn't give the presidential election result in the district. Do you know what it is or could you give a reasonable guess for it? I'm curious to know by how much Romney outperformed Pittenger. I've said before on here that I don't think Pittenger will have another close call. He can tremendously self-fund and I think the rancor from the 2010 GOP primary and runoff will have much less impact over time and I think that was the main reason he only won the general election by six percentage points. Another thing is he's 64 so I don't think he'll serve for many terms.

Included now
Just an oversight.

North Carolina was remarkably consistent 2008-2012. Ten of the 13 districts had PVIs within 1 point of 2008. The other three changed 1.4, 2.4, and 2.5.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Thanks
How did NC-9 change from '08 to '12 in terms of presidential vote?

[ Parent ]
R+8.3 to R+8.1
Romney beat McCain by 1.6.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
California
I think you are a little too optimistic about the GOP's prospects in California.  

California
I have one seat an almost certain loss and two other seats as mid-vulnerable. This was a big Democratic year in California and they weren't able to take CA-10 or CA-21. While Republicans may lose these seats in 2016 or 2020, 2014 figures to be a better year. And this evaluation is just about 2014. Fiorina won both these seats comfortably in 2010 and Costa nearly lost a much more Democratic seat in the CA-21 area that year.

Jose Hernandez wants another shot at Jeff Denham but is looking toward 2016, thinking the electorate won't be favorable enough in 2014.

If anything I think I'm overrating Democratic chances of winning the GOP seats.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
DCCC targeting OH-14
http://atr.rollcall.com/dcccs-...

The seat was R+3.5 for Romney. That's not a typical district for Democrats to win. Good luck, Mr. Israel. Pour lots of money in here.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


They have to come up with 17 seats somewhere
Its not like they have many better potential targets right now.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Every district on my list
I think they're all better targets, even the ones listed as "low."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I think it's a decent choice
because Joyce is an unknown.  He's never campaigned for anything.  No primary, and he could cruise in the general.  It's kind of like an open seat.  I don't see why it would be anything more than Lean R.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
This isn't MI-11
Joyce was Geauga County Prosecutor for more than 20 years, running in a district that was held by a Republican for years.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
His name rec is likely quite low
A strong Democrat (St. Sen/St. Rep/Co Exec.) would give him a challenge.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
I fully expect Cafaro to run; She's young, a decent campaigner, and loaded. With her this is not a race to take for granted.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Top targets in '12 aren't guaranteed targets in '14
2012 was the toughest year for Walorski, Rothfus, Terry, and Benishek.

Walorski's district was drawn for her. Mullen may be itching for a rematch, but he'd face a ceiling in the mid-40s w/o a Donnelly bump.

SW PA has moved sharply to the right. Obama performed horribly outside Allegheny. Jason Altmire is the only formidable candidate Dems could field in this district. But now that he's out of Congress, he's more interested in lobbying (read: $$$)

Terry is in the same boat as Walorski. Ewing benefited from Kerrey's popularity in Omaha (the carpetbagger almost carried the 2nd, even though he garnered a paltry 41 percent statewide). Terry surely won't face those headwinds in '14.

Benishek's vulnerability has been exaggerated by the punditry class. as long as he keeps his distance from Ryan (there are a lot of seniors in his district), he should be safe.

I think three seats r missing from this list. Scandal-plagued Michael Grimm may start with an edge, but he should be vigilant. Obama won the district. SI is trendin Democratic due to an influx of Hispanic immigrants in the north. And his opponent in '12, Mark Murphy, was a joke. All these conditions portend a competitive race in the future.

David Joyce should also be worried. Israel has already signaled that the DCCC is targeting him in '14. Like Grimm, Joyce has the upper hand, as district fundamentals favor him. However, we don't have enough of a cushion to be complacent.

Shelley Moore Capito's open seat could attract top Democratic talent. WV's partisan realignment has just started to have an effect on local races. As long as the Dem isn't as shrewd as Manchin, we should be fine. Nevertheless, this has the potential to be a marquee race

Ryan/Kasich 2016


NY-11
Michael Grimm was mired in a scandal and survived. He won't be in a scandal in 2014. I don't know who won his district. Obama won Richmond County but I can't find any breakdown of the Kings County part of the district either for Obama or Grimm. The district was heavily affected by Sandy, so I don't put a lot of stock into the low turnout Obama results.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
why do you think Grimm's scandal will be over by 2014
Rivera was in a scandal in 2010.  He was still in a scandal in 2012.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Not really
There were no criminal or ethical investigations for Rivera during the 2010 election. None of that started until 2011. It's unusual for ethical violations to last longer than 2 years. These things get resolved one way or another.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The taint of corruption doesn't leave very easily


Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Evidence?
Scandal tainted congressmen frequently lose elections. Do you have evidence that those that win them, don't survive future elections?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I have evidence that
the reputation of corruption doesn't leave just because the scandal is old.  

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
That's anecdotal, not evidence
Does it impact elections?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I don't think there's evidence either way
I can tell you that whether people think someone is corrupt affects whether they will vote for them.  That's common sense.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
There has to be evidence
We aren't talking about what may be common sense.

Either a scandal ridden congressman who survives loses a subsequent election after surviving or he doesn't. You can prove it with electoral evidence or you can't. Your hypothesis is provable if you choose to do so.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I think it depends on the scandal
Convoluted campaign finance issues and affairs are far more likely to fade away than stuff like pocket-lining corruption or abuse of power.

We'll see about Grimm--I don't think he'll lose barring a major follow-up scandal.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Riverea
I thought I remember the stories about Rivera starting before Election day 2010?  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
The usual mud slinging
http://blog.reidreport.com/201...

The things that really tainted him didn't come out until after the election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Top targets in '12 aren't guaranteed targets in '14
2012 was the toughest year for Walorski, Rothfus, Terry, and Benishek.

Walorski's district was drawn for her. Mullen may be itching for a rematch, but he'd face a ceiling in the mid-40s w/o a Donnelly bump.

SW PA has moved sharply to the right. Obama performed horribly outside Allegheny. Jason Altmire is the only formidable candidate Dems could field in this district. But now that he's out of Congress, he's more interested in lobbying (read: $$$)

Terry is in the same boat as Walorski. Ewing benefited from Kerrey's popularity in Omaha (the carpetbagger almost carried the 2nd, even though he garnered a paltry 41 percent statewide). Terry surely won't face those headwinds in '14.

Benishek's vulnerability has been exaggerated by the punditry class. as long as he keeps his distance from Ryan (there are a lot of seniors in his district), he should be safe.

I think three seats r missing from this list. Scandal-plagued Michael Grimm may start with an edge, but he should be vigilant. Obama won the district. SI is trendin Democratic due to an influx of Hispanic immigrants in the north. And his opponent in '12, Mark Murphy, was a joke. All these conditions portend a competitive race in the future.

David Joyce should also be worried. Israel has already signaled that the DCCC is targeting him in '14. Like Grimm, Joyce has the upper hand, as district fundamentals favor him. However, we don't have enough of a cushion to be complacent.

Shelley Moore Capito's open seat could attract top Democratic talent. WV's partisan realignment has just started to have an effect on local races. As long as the Dem isn't as shrewd as Manchin, we should be fine. Nevertheless, this has the potential to be a marquee race

Ryan/Kasich 2016


Jason Altmire
But now that he's out of Congress, he's more interested in lobbying (read: $$$)

Bahaha. He also moved to Jacksonville.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Benishek
What Dan Benishek needs to do is build on his first two years and have top notch constituent relations. This district is all about small town politics and Stupak mastered that. That's how he was able to win easily every time.

If Benishek has that covered he should do well. He survived against a very good candidate in 2012. That's a start.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


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