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Solid 8-4-1 Democrat North Carolina

by: jncca

Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 18:49:03 PM EST


This is my newest stab at an alternate (Democratic) gerrymander of North Carolina, one of my favorite states to redistrict.

1st: GK Butterfield (D)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: D+13
Racial Stats: 50% Black, 42% White
Black % of Democratic Primary (estimated based on # of Blacks over 18/# of Obama votes, which I know is rough and inaccurate.  It will probably be on the high end, since Whites will turn out in primaries more than Blacks): 76%
This VRA district loses a bit of its ugly arm into the Central Coastal part of the state, instead adding an arm to Durham, some areas in the Western end of the district (more of Nash and Granville, some of Person and Caswell), as well as small Tyrell County in the East.  All in all, it remains pretty similar, as it's a tough district to change.

2nd: Brad Miller (D) vs. George Holding (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: D+3
Racial Stats: 61% White, 25% Black
Black Primary %: 45
This district is made for a Raleigh Democrat, like Brad Miller.  Nearly the entire city is here, as are many suburbs like Wake Forest, Garner, and the bluer (R+12) parts of Johnston County, as well as more exurban and rural areas north of Wake County.  It has little in common with either Etheridge or Ellmers' 2nd districts.  Holding couldn't win.

3rd: Walter Jones (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: R+15
Racial Stats: 82% White, 12% Black
Black Primary %: 30
Jones gets an even redder version of his old district.  He loses swingy Tyrrell to the 1st, as well as much of Pitt County (split 4 ways on this map), Wayne County, and Wilson County.  In the South, he loses the bluer parts of the Jacksonville Area.  The district isn't contiguous here because of a giant precinct, which would be split under an actual map.  Finally, Jones gains some blood red areas from McIntyre's district along the Coast near South Carolina.

4th: David Price (D)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: D+3
Racial Stats: 69% White, 16% Black
Black Primary %: 28
Other than the chunk of Durham he loses, Price's district is very clean and quite similar to his old one.  He loses a chunk of Southern Wake County, as well as Chapel Hill.  In return, he gets some more red territory: part of Person, the rest of Chatham, and all of Lee.  

5th District: Virginia Foxx (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: R+21
Racial Stats: 89% White
Black Primary %: 17
Foxx gets a very similar district, particularly geographically, but it's redder mainly because she loses her half of Winston-Salem, which contained swingy and light blue areas, as well as the college town of Boone. Instead, she gets more of Rockingham County, some very red Greensboro suburbs, a little bit of Davidson County, and much of Caldwell, Avery, and Mitchell Counties in Appalachia.  

6th: Howard Coble/Renee Ellmers (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: R+21
Racial Stats: 80% White, 11% Black
Black Primary %: 35
Coble and Ellmers are combined in a V shaped vote sink, with no real population centers.  For a vote sink, it's not THAT ugly.  

7th: Mike McIntyre (D)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: EVEN
Racial Stats: 54% White, 28% Black
Black Primary % (likely inaccurate due to the number of DINOs in this area): 51
The only way to get a district McIntyre's successor could hold is to make it possible his successor is a Black moderate like Sanford Bishop.  McIntyre loses much of his coastal area, as well as some of the Fayetteville area, but keeps his base, the rural counties.  He gains arms to Jacksonville and Greenville.  He'll be very safe here until he retires, despite the PVI.  

8th: Larry Kissell (or, even better, a different Democrat) vs. Robert Pittenger/Richard Hudson (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: D+2
Racial Stats: 54% White, 33% Black
Black Primary %: 59
I tried to gerrymander this as best I could for a Black Democrat without sacrificing the neighboring districts, so it may not be enough.  The district is actually very similar to the old one.  Major differences include the territory in Cumberland and Mecklenburg Counties, as well as trading Cabarrus County for more of Monroe County.  Republicans do have a shot here, but I'm not sure how much crossover appeal either of the two incumbents in the Charlotte Area have.  My guess is almost zero.

9th: Mel Watt (D) or OPEN (D) vs. Robert Pittenger (R) or OPEN (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: D+4
Racial Stats: 59% White, 24% Black, 11% Hispanic
Black Primary %: 42
Lots of choices here; it could be anything from incumbent on incumbent to a totally open seat, depending where the incumbents choose to run.  Regardless, it's a Lean D seat.  

10th: Patrick McHenry (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: R+19
Racial Stats: 86% White
Black Primary %: 19
McHenry keeps his safe seat here.  It loses the Northernmost 4 counties, instead gaining McDowell, Polk, Henderson, and more of Gaston.  It is compact except for the arm the 11th takes out of it.

11th: Mark Meadows (R)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: R+4 in 2008, so about R+6
Racial Stats: 85% White
Black Primary %: 15
Meadows would be relatively safe, but if Shuler decides to run against him that could change.  The district is similar to Shuler's old district, but by removing McDowell, Polk, and most of Henderson Counties and replacing them with an arm to Boone and an arm to Gaston, Obama won this district by 195 votes in 2008.

12th: OPEN (D) or Mel Watt (D)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: D+3
Racial Stats: 59% White, 30% Black
Black Primary %: 53
Drawn to maximize the chances of a Black representative while keeping neighboring districts blue, this ends up looking like a less skinny version of Watt's old district.  It has parts of all six counties the current one does, and even adds a seventh.  However, it is much less ugly, although still quite gerrymandered. Black Democratic areas in Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Lexington, Salisbury, Statesville, and a bit of Charlotte are balanced by more Republican suburban and rural areas.

13th: OPEN (D)
Photobucket
Partisan Stats: D+4
Racial Stats: 68% White, 20% Black
Black Primary %: 35
This is the "White" Greensboro/Winston Salem district.  It starts in the liberal college town of Chapel Hill, takes in red Alamance County, reaches up to grab the blue (and Black) part of Rockingham, then attempts to take in as many White liberals as possible in the Greensboro/Winston Salem area.

Here's the statewide view:
Photobucket

jncca :: Solid 8-4-1 Democrat North Carolina
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Effective and beautifully ugly


25, Male, R, NY-10

Fortunately Irrelevant
I do not see the Dems taking the NC legislature any time soon.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

[ Parent ]
You retrogressed the S5s.
Other than that this is very effective.

R - MD-7

agreed
It's district #1 that would be the problem.
It also looks subject to a non reasonably compact claim which VRA districts must also meet.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Redistricting App?
Is this based on the normal Dave Redistricting App? Looks are unfamiliar.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

Yes
He got rid of the precinct lines, as I and many others always do.

[ Parent ]
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