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House Most valuable players

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 21:43:34 PM EST


Who can the parties least afford to retire?  
Left Coast Libertarian :: House Most valuable players
I decided that the best way to measure that was by the margin a candidate exceeded his party's Presidential nominee in competitive districts. So a candidate who gets 59% in a district where his party's nominee got 51% will be more "valuable" than one who got 52% in a 51% district.

It's arguable that the party can't afford for either to retire, as both held tough districts, but the 52% candidate might fall in the next wave while the 59% candidate won't. You also don't need independent expenditures to help the candidate who got 59% win.

I'm including those candidates in D/R +3.5 or less districts who exceeded the Presidential nominee, in 2 party numbers, by 6%. This list has 20 Republicans and 7 Democrats. Overall, Republicans hold 34 such districts and Democrats hold 28. Note: If I extend it to 5%, I add 3 more Republicans and no Democrats.

1. FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen +15
2. CA-21 Valadao +14
3. NJ-2 LoBiondo +13
4. WA-8 Reichert +11
5. OH-10 Turner +10
6. NY-2 King +10
7. WA-3 Herrera Beutler +10
8. NY-22 Hanna +9
9. VA-10 Wolf +9
10. MI-8 Rogers +9
11. MN-3 Paulsen +9
12. FL-13 Young +8
13. PA-7 Meehan +8
14. NJ-3 Runyan +7
15. PA-8 Fitzpatrick +7
16. IA-3 Latham +7
17. VA-4 Forbes +6
18. NY-19 Gibson +6
19. OH-14 Joyce +6
20. CA-39 Royce +6

1. WV-3 Rahall +20
2. UT-4 Matheson +19
3. MN-7 Peterson +18
4. NC-7 McIntyre +10
5. GA-12 Barrow +10
6. MN-1 Walz +7
7. OR-4 DeFazio +7

If you're a Republican you can take that we have stronger incumbents in competitive districts. If you're a Democrat you can point to big opportunity with retirements and that your own retirements won't increase the number of competitive districts. Of course that means that NY-1 will always be competitive but NY-2 will only be if Peter King retires.

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request
could you put in the names of the congressmembers?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


Thanks for the roundup


25, Male, R, NY-10

I would love to see
The second half, the cheapest members.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Republicans have a better top 5
Rahall, Matheson, McIntyre, and Barrow all go into 2014 with targets on their back.

Peterson has his seat as long as he wants it, but few believe he'll stick around much longer. Once he retires, Dems will all but concede that seat to the GOP.

Ros-Lehtinen, LoBiondo, Reichert, and Turner are all safe.

Even if Cubans become a Democratic voting bloc (which is quite possible 5-10 years from now), Ros-Lehtinen will still have enough support to skate to reelection.

If Reichert was able to win a Democratic-leaning district in '06 and '08, he can win anywhere in the state outside Seattle. Gubernatorial candidate in 2016?

Turner's seat went to Romney. Dems never seriously challenged him.

LoBiondo's successes are hard for me to explain. Why did the DCCC never target him? His district went to Kerry and Obama both times. I know he's a moderate (he was one of the eight Republicans to vote for cap and trade), but that can't be enough. Bob Dold and Judy Biggert can attest to that

Valadao is the only one in the GOP's top 5 who's vulnerable. My guess is that he wins in 2014 and loses in 2016 when more Hispanics come to the polls and pull the lever for his Democratic opponent.  

Ryan/Kasich 2016


MN-7
Democrats will not concede this seat, as there are a large bench for both parties in the district, and Republicans are likely to nominate an unelectable candidate (Mary Franson), while exiting state representative Larry Hosch would be incredibly strong district-wide, perhaps stronger than Peterson.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
The District
I always bristle at "unelectable candidate." I don't know Franson and she certainly could be eating babies, but candidates don't have to be the right fit for the district. Julia Brownley is the wrong fit for CA-26. Despite huge sums spent behind her she managed only 27% in the primary. She underachieved in the general election. She won because Obama won the district 54.0%-43.7%. There were enough Democratic voters there that her ideology didn't hurt her enough to lose it.

Mark Takano wouldn't have won CA-36, but did win CA-41 because it was so Democratic. I don't claim to know MN-7 but this district has been R+5-7 for Bush, McCain, and Romney. Democrats don't win open seats like that except in a wave. Maybe you're right but it shouldn't be that hard to win as an open seat.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
If I'm remembering OGGoldy's series correctly
Franson came within a handful of votes of losing a R+Huge or so district (Sen. Klobuchar lost the district) as an incumbent.

I don't know why OGGoldy thinks she'd be the probable nominee, and obviously local and federal politics and issues don't always overlap, but she'd certainly seem to have a small chance of victory based on her electoral track record.

Also, that this district is currently held by a Democrat could be construed as proof MN-07 is not an overwhelmingly partisan district in the sense CA-26 apparently is.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
CA-26
Whitman won it. Fiorina won it. Cooley won it by double digits. In 2010, 64% of the district was Gallegly, 35% of it was Capps, and 1% was Waxman and the Republican candidates won it by 5%. CA-26 has historically been a Republican district, a fairly partisan one at that. If it can flip, then MN-7 surely can.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Franson's district
I need to correct a small error here. Klobuchar definitely lost the district in 06, but she did carry it narrowly in 2012 when she won by 35 points statewide.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Franson
The thing about Franson is that she would make MN-07 that hard to win as an open seat. Franson is like Bachmann, but worse (apparently, that does exist), and definitely beats Bachmann when it comes to underperforming. Franson's legislative district is far more Republican than MN-07, or even MN-06, yet she won re-election to it by just a handful of votes this year.

Despite what the district looks like on paper, candidates still matter, and as OGGoldy said, Franson is pretty much the one Republican candidate in that district capable of blowing it.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
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