Political Roundup for December 26, 2012

Mormons and booze

I heard this joke many years ago:

If you're on a fishing trip with a Mormon, how do you make sure he doesn't drink all your beer?

Invite another Mormon.

A Mormon who secretly drinks isn't news. I don't think it'll be as devastating as people are making it out to be.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 12:23:17 PM UTC

An anti Mormon joke

is the basis for thinking Crapo won't face alot of trouble with voters?

25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

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by: Kyle98632 @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 13:09:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think that

Making fun of religions is for this site.
Even if I agree.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 13:13:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joke

While I enjoy poking fun at all faiths especially my own, I ask commentators refrain from it here.

In terms of the electoral implications, I think this can play out both ways.  Crapo's problem is that he is such a non-entity that anyone challenging him has a chance if the party establishment gives him less than absolute support.

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 13:17:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's not an anti-Mormon joke

The joke was told to me by two different Mormons. It's self-depricating humor. I'm not poking fun at another faith. I'm pointing out that some Mormons privately drink alcohol and that it isn't as horrible a transgression as people make it out to be.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 14:18:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not self-depricating if you're not mormon.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

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by: Setsuna @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 17:13:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hence the sentence before self-depricating

It's a Mormon joke

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 17:20:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Crapo

Being that anonymous is usually a good thing (as nobody can really fault you for anything) until you screw up. He has nothing else to define him so this could definitely be an issue. This may very well just convince him to retire; as I've said in the roundup the guy has only faced two serious campaigns in his life, in 1984 and 1992 - and I don't think he's ready for one now.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 16:06:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

All joking aside...

Will this lead a credible Republican to primary Crapo in 2016?  

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by: Alderman @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 14:19:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not unless

There's more such instances;
2016 is a long ways away.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

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by: joncnunn @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 15:09:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Welcome!

My best guess is probably not, but it's possible. If it looks like someone serious is going to mount a primary, I think Crapo probably just retires.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 17:16:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Medical Marjuana DOA in PA Legislature

You got to love the PA Democrats.  They almost enjoy stifling progressives as much as the Republicans.

State Rep. Mark Cohen (D., Phila.), who unsuccessfully sponsored medical-marijuana bills in the last two legislative sessions, said that he would introduce similar legislation in the next session, but that he was not optimistic about its prospects.

Cohen said the proposal lacked support among his fellow Democrats and had no support from the Republican majority. Unless that changes, he said, "it's obvious we don't have the votes to pass it."

http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 14:51:15 PM UTC

HI-Sen Candidates

Serious candidates (also some indication of who may be interested in HI-1)
Rep. Colleen Hanabusa
LG Brian Schatz
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
ex-Rep. Ed Case
Attorney Esther Kia'aina
Labor Attorney Tony Gill
State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim
State Sen. Will Espero
Abercrombie CoS Blake Oshiro

Random Some Dudes:
Timothy Hogan
David Tarnas
Kurt Lajala
Earl Winfree
Antonio Gimbernat

I think the committee gives Abercrombie Hanabusa and two Some Dudes to tie his hands.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 15:52:58 PM UTC

AR-GOV/Sen; Womack will be the key domino

http://arkansasnews.com/sectio...

I think with Hutchison likely to run for governor, I think Womack runs for the senate and Darr runs for Womack's seat like the article speculates. If Womack doesn't, the artcle speculates Cotton will likely be pushed into running with Darr probably running for reelection.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

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by: aas34 @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 16:20:59 PM UTC

Gov is almost a Lean R race

no matter who's running. Unless we get a weak candidate you can probably drop the "almost" too. I think it safe to say we won't have a clear primary field there, and might even get a 3-way+ affair with Womack, Hutchinson, Darr, and maybe others all jumping in. Senate on the other hand is a much tougher nut to crack - any strong candidate (Womack, Cotton, even Darr) that wants it probably has the primary field to himself.

I think re-election is probably the last thing Darr does, because if he goes for a second term he'll be termed out in 2018 with nowhere to go but down. And he doesn't seem like a guy who would be content with playing musical offices for the rest of his life.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 16:27:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Senate

As this article says, it really revolves around Womack. I do not think Cotton runs unless Womack declines. A Cotton vs Womack primary is akin to Cotton throwing away his career, since a majority + of the votes come from Womack's home base. If both Womack and Cotton decline (which I really don't see happening), then you guys should look at Kim Hendren, Gilbert Baker, Jonathan Dismang or Jason Rapert.

On Darr - if he runs for Lieutenant Governor now, he can increase his name recognition for a potential run for Boozman's seat in 2022, for Governor in 2022 or for Pryor's seat if he isn't defeated in 2014. Remember, he has about 10% name recognition within the state.

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by: GradyDem @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 18:50:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There so some other potential candidates

State Senator Johnny Key, Businessman Curtis Coleman, State Senator Missie Irvin and soon to be former State Representative Loy Mauch have all been talked up by the Arkansas establishment. Mauch and Coleman would be disasters in a general election. Irvin and Key are interesting candidates but come from North Central Arkansas.

What would be really interesting is if a conglomeration of northwestern candidates get in and hand the race to someone from the Delta or South Arkansas. That would annoy the heck out of a lot of Republicans, and the state party who believe all of their candidates should come from the Northwest. I think Doyle Webb's followers want Womack in against Pryor because of the whole geographical base thing. Running as a Republican from Southern Arkansas or the Delta can be tricky.  

I still believe Darr will try to get rid of Dustin McDaniel. There's bad blood there - McDaniel refused to sign onto the Obamacare lawsuit. Darr did instead, but there was a question of whether Lieutenant Governor can actually represent the state of Arkansas (and not the Attorney General).  

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by: GradyDem @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 18:40:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MT-Sen

What do people think of Jim O'Hara as a prospective unorthodox candidate for this race? If you remember him, he's the obscure County Commissioner who ran a shoestring campaign for Governor last year that was based on putting up billboards in every county. He got 12% in the primary, respectable for somebody with no name rec, and has a bit of a Schweitzer-esque biography. http://www.oharagov.com/who-i-am/

We need somebody who can run a populist, anti-Washington, anti-politician, "Walkin' Lawton" style campaign here. If he can raise some money, he might just be the guy.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 16:39:50 PM UTC

*I* barely remember him, and I'm really into MT politics.

Getting 12% in a primary isn't that impressive in MT. That's generally how large the "I don't want anyone else" vote is.  

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 17:38:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he raised something like $10K

over his whole campaign, and the only news he made was one human-interest story. For a total non-factor 12% and 4th of 7 is not bad.

Regardless, unless Fox wants to turn right around and run, we probably need to be looking at more unorthodox candidates against Baucus.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 18:24:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, that Ruben

Malcolm Smith is now an Uncle Tom for cooperating with Republicans, which is something Ruben Diaz would never do. http://politicker.com/2012/12/...

This guy beats anything Colbert can come up with for sheer hilarity.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 17:33:26 PM UTC

Can't make this stuff up

If Smith is an Uncle Tom, what does that make Kevin Parker?

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by: BostonPatriot @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 17:50:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The missing millions

Well it looks like pretty much all the votes have been counted in the 2012 Presidential Election.  There still may be a few more votes that trickle into the total, but it seems that there are about 2.5 million fewer voters in 2012 compared to 2008. In additon, since the population grew about 10 to 11 million from 2008 to 2012, there should have been about 3.5 million additional voters to keep the percentage of voters compared to total population the same.  So in terms of keeping percent voter turnout the same, there should be 6 million more voters (2.5 mil plus 3.5 mil). So a key question is who did not turnout and why didn't they turn out.  We know that the minority share of voters went from 26% to 28% and surprisingly, young voters (18-29) edged up to 19%. So it would appear that the key non-turn-out group or(groups) is located somewhere in the white population aged 30 and older. I don't know the answer but here are some possibilities:

-Superstorm Sandy.  Yes this depressed turnout in NY and NJ, but remember most people had their electricity back by election day and most people do not live in the "devastated areas" by the shore. This may account for a few hundred thousand but not 6 million.  

Some white evangelicals did not vote for Romney because he is a Mormon and stayed home. There may have been a few, but according to the World Almanac Romney did better with evangelicals than McCain.  I don't know what evangelical turnout in 2012 is compared to 2008 that may be an interesting number.  

-The Romney high tech voter turnout operation fizzled on election day.  True, but I suspect we are talking about tens of thousands of potential voters who didn't turn out here not hundreds of thousands.  Plus the Obama people did a great job in getting their voters out. So I don't see this as a major factor in reduced turnout.  

-Some white working class voters sat on their hands because they did not like Obama's performance with regard to the economy but saw Romney as a "Richie Rich" type who wouldn't help them. I suspect there may be some validity to this argument, but I haven't seen any data yet to back it up.  

I suspect there are additional factors others can think of but the above items are what I came up with off the top of my head.

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by: Manhatlibertarian @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 18:21:05 PM UTC

New Jersey might get a gay marriage referendum

http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

They probably missed the boat on that. Christie told them to do so a year ago.

26, R, PA-01.

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by: krazen1211 @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 18:37:43 PM UTC

NJ Congressmen 'live' in PO Boxes

http://nj.gov/state/elections/...

Heh.

26, R, PA-01.

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by: krazen1211 @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 19:26:47 PM UTC

HI-Sen Final 3

Hanabusa, Schatz, Oshiro.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 20:09:29 PM UTC

Definitely Hanabusa

RollCall mentioned in an article that she gained a lot of goodwill by not running in 2012, she has the name recognition and the profile.  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

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by: GerGOP @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 20:17:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some Hawaiian news outlets...

now consider lieutenant governor Schatz the front runner.
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/s...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

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by: Jon Henrik Gilhuus @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 20:39:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Makes sense for Abercrombie

Not necessarily politically. He gets a buddy in the senate.
What's his fault that Inouye made a wish?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 20:48:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Abercrombie

Is pretty independent minded and he will be 76 next election, so he may not run again anyway, hence won't need to weigh public opinion. Schatz is more than 20 years younger than Hanabusa and can therefore build much more seniority long term for the state. Finally, the Dems won't have to fight a tough House battle if they give it to him.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

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by: Jon Henrik Gilhuus @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 21:02:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably makes him more hated among Hawaii Democrats...

to ignore Inouye's wishes and more vulnerable to a successful primary challenge.

He shouldn't mess this up like David Patterson did.

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by: sentinelrules @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 21:06:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actual Final 3

Schatz, Hanabusa, and Kiaaina

(This is according to twitter)

18, Republican, KS-03

Capito, Cassidy, Handel, Roberts and Rounds for 2014 Senate!!

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by: KS Kid @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 21:13:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hanabusa, Schatz, Kia'aina

Governor Abercrombie is unpopular, so even if we're to believe he's a loose cannon (which I don't think has been evidenced at all), I doubt he has the political clout or will to appoint Schatz. Being the white minority Governor appointing a white minority to the senate seat vacant by the death of the adored and admired Asian-American Senator over his chosen Asian-American replacement would seal his political fate. Even though he's managed to pack a lot of loyalists into the state party, I'd think he'd almost definitely draw an Asian-American primary challenge, and would probably lose. Given how low his approval ratings are, all he really would need would be a credible challenger.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

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by: Setsuna @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 21:32:13 PM UTC

You're disregarding

the fact that at his age he may not wish to run again.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

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by: Jon Henrik Gilhuus @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 22:37:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

HI-SEN: News Conference @ 7 ET

http://twitter.com/stevebruskCNN
-Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie has called a 7pm ET (2pm HT) news conference to announce appointment to the U.S. Senate.

18, Republican, KS-03

Capito, Cassidy, Handel, Roberts and Rounds for 2014 Senate!!

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by: KS Kid @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 22:59:18 PM UTC

Over under on how long it takes to leak?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 23:05:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

6:30 and no leak yet.. (n/t)

18, Republican, KS-03

Capito, Cassidy, Handel, Roberts and Rounds for 2014 Senate!!

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by: KS Kid @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 23:31:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nobody gives a hoot

Zero chatter on twitter.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 23:43:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

most of the twitter updates are Germans randomly using "Schatz".

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 23:45:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or the other Abercrombie

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 23:47:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And most of the Abercrombie ones

Are teenagers whining about lines to return stuff to the store.

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by: BostonPatriot @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 23:47:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Didn't leak

amazing.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 00:00:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seems like

No reporter bothered to even ask.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 00:03:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IT'S SCHATZ!

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 00:04:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Live Stream

http://governor.hawaii.gov/pho...

18, Republican, KS-03

Capito, Cassidy, Handel, Roberts and Rounds for 2014 Senate!!

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by: KS Kid @ Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 23:39:55 PM UTC