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MA-Sen: Markey In

by: James_Nola

Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 14:45:53 PM EST


From the Globe:

US Representative Edward Markey, dean of the state's Washington delegation, will run in 2013 for the US Senate seat expected to open with the nomination of US Senator John Kerry to head the State Department.

Markey, 66, a Malden Democrat elected to the House in 1976, is the first prominent candidate to declare a run for Kerry's seat, which will be filled through a special election early next summer, probably in June. Kerry, a Democrat and head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is expected to be easily confirmed by the Senate in the coming weeks as the next secretary of state.

The Massachusetts special election is likely to be a closely-watched national race, and a potential harbinger for the 2014 mid-term elections.

"I have decided to run for the US Senate because this fight is too important," Markey said in a statement to the Globe. "There is so much at stake."

Not often do we see 35+ year Congressmen run for higher office, especially when they have previously chaired powerful committees. Markey likely doesn't see Dems regaining a House majority if he is taking this plunge. His entry likely guarantees a bloody, expensive Democratic primary; Markey begins the race with over $3 million in the bank. Rep. Stephen Lynch has been saying privately he is in, but has not confirmed his plans. Rep. Mike Capuano is also believed to be interested, as well as Treasurer Steve Grossman.  

James_Nola :: MA-Sen: Markey In
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MA-Sen: Markey In | 37 comments
Lynch probably needs a clowncar primary, right?
Massachusetts primaries are closed I believe, but Indies can vote in 1 or the other?

28, R, PA-07.

I don't get it
Why would there be a mad rush to fill this seat when the previous two times all of the congressmen sat on their hands during candidate searching time?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

They thought Scott Brown was unbeatable...
or very difficult to beat?

Seeing Warren win makes them think the 2010 special election was a hiccup and not the norm?


[ Parent ]
I can't believe they thought he was unbeatable
I didn't talk to anyone in Massachusetts directly, but all of my regional political junky friends saw his win as a fluke.

But even if so, that doesn't explain why they passed the first time when Kaufman said he wasn't going to run for a full term.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Coakley
Was seen as unbeatable  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Answer
in 2009 the Dems controlled the House and the sitting MA congressman didnt want to give up their seniority and positions in the majority party in the House for a Senate run that's why they didnt run. In 2012 they would have had to risk their House seats to run for Senate vs Brown (or whoever ran in Dem primary). Now its a free shot at a Senate seat where they can go from being powerless in the House minority to being a player in the Senate majority.  

[ Parent ]
Agree


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Exactly
Perfect explaination.

[ Parent ]
This may be less of a clown car than meets the eye
Capuano probably stays out now. The House delegation save Lynch are all pretty close and I think they close ranks behind Markey. I think it's down to Him, Lynch, maybe Grossman, and a few overly ambitious lower-downs like Wolf and Downing.

R - MD-7

Does anyone even know who Wolf is...
...outside of the Cape? He's only been in office for a couple of terms.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
He has the money to make them know though
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I had hopes for Wolf....
...that, given his background in the private sector(Cape Air, I believe), he wouldn't be a typical MA lib nutjob. But I was wrong.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Steve Pagliuca 2.0
I expect Wolf to pull a similar share of the vote.

[ Parent ]
I'm genuinely surprised at this
I always thought Markey would want to stay in the House for another 25 years and gun for Dingell's record.

R - MD-7

All MA primaries are open.
Which means we could do some strategic voting here IF we had a viable statewide Republican party. But we don't.
As for Markey, he's an obnoxious lifer who didn't even live in his own district for years. But that didn't hurt him and probably wouldn't hurt in the special. I thought Pocahontas Warren was unelectable because of her abrasiveness, so what do I know?

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

No, semi-open
Indies can vote in either, R and D are locked in.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I stand corrected.
Those of us who are registered indy (or "unenrolled", as it's termed here) can vote in any primary we wish. That happens frequently, most notably in the 1990 governor's race when tons of unenrolleds voted for Silber in the primary, then switched to Weld in the general.
Someone should write a book on that political year in MA.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
For what it's worth
All I keep hearing, on the ground in Boston, is how much Steve Grossman is pining to run...for governor in 2014. So I'm tempted to think he'll pass on this. I still, however, think Capuano and Lynch will both enter, as will a handful of no-namers who collectively net 10 percent. My hunch is Capuano probably has an edge, which is fantastic, because I don't think he can get past 52 percent in the general.

As for Markey, I think he has the potential to be a very formidable opponent, though not in the same league of dream candidates like Patrick and (Vicki) Kennedy. But against any of these fading congressmen, Brown will undoubtedly have an enthusiasm edge.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Who do you see as running for Governor?
Murray? Grossman? Coakley? Others?

What about Downing?


[ Parent ]
Coakley and Murray always come up
That is, in my conversations with folks who work at the Globe and/or Herald and/or have lived in the commonwealth for years.

Most seem to think Grossman would be dead-on-arrival, in a primary or a general. Haven't heard a peep about Downing. Some in the press, who wanted to see her lose in 2010, joke about Bump giving it a go. The general sentiment seems to be Brown running in the special and Baker trying again for governor. There's more amusement than anything about the prospect of a Weld comeback, though I'd love it.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Nah, not Weld.
He was a good governor back in his time, but he's been out of the loop for too long. Not sure what shape his liver is in, either...
Elsewhere on the red side, there's always Charlie Baker--nice guy, accomplished guy, but one who ran an entirely feckless campaign in '10. Rich Tisei is out there too, but he's more likely to try again for Tierney's seat in '14. How he lost this year is still a mystery to me. Guess this state loves its crooked pols.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Tisei Ad
What do you think about the ad he ran featuring waves crashing against the shoreline? It said something about sparing people from typical political ads but I don't think it was effective. I can't remember if it aired around the time of Hurricane Sandy but if it did, that might have blunted its effectiveness.

[ Parent ]
I liked it, but I suspect it had scant impact either way
I'm convinced Tierney prevailed on the backs of low-info Obama voters who hadn't read a thing about the congressman's woes or Tisei's moderate positions.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
+1


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Yup.
Think you got that right.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Yes/No
Tisei suffered terribly by the general tendency of voters to ignore downballot offices, but its worth remembering he also ran about 7 points behind Brown.

Tisei fundamentally failed to win over local town machines outside his old Senate district. Machines are misnomer in MA in the sense that the real Machines are local, and involve firefighters, police, teacher, fisherman(in Gloucester)and other interest groups. These groups in turn can swing around lower-info voters.

These groups were fully aware of Tierney's troubles and were willing to consider Tisei, much as they had been willing to consider Brown. Tisei however never quite focused on making the sale. His attacks on Tierney for being corrupt were aimed at voters who weren't listening. Those who were listening, aka the local town political organizations, could have cared less if Tierney was a Mexican drug kingpin. What mattered was whether

A. He would look out for their local interests
B. Whether he would keep the money flowing federally given the number of them in government positions.

Tierney spent the last three months reminding everyone(important) what he had done for them. Tisei took a victory lap.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Tisei Beach Ad
That ad was never "aired" because it was never on television.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Was it on TV news? Like, as something being covered?
Otherwise, yawn. I didn't realize that. If it actually never made TV, it didn't have any impact on anything whatsoever. (even if it did, I doubt it did, to be honest.)

[ Parent ]
Tisei's Beach Ad
Greta showed it on her FNC show a couple weeks before the election, yes, but I meant "never aired" as in: it was not a TV ad, and Tisei never meant for it to be.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I know. I was just wondering in whether it would
actually have been seen by local viewers.

[ Parent ]
Like, to give an idea of what I meant
the "Daisy" ad famously only aired once paid for by the Johnson campaign. The rest was news coverage.

[ Parent ]
Never on local TV news
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Bump
she would actually be a better candidate than 2010 would indicate. I've been extremely pleasantly surprised with her Auditor performance.

Why do they think Grossman is DOA? He's a bit boring but he just strikes me as Generic D.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Weld
I'll admit its unlikely, but I would love a Weld comeback.

An interesting dynamic of such a race--he is personally friends with the Clintons, whose support has been promised to the victor of the dem primary by the President.

Living   - DC
Hometown - MA 6


[ Parent ]
MA Dems clearing the field.
Kerry and Vikki Kennedy have endorsed Markey. They're obviously trying to clear the field and avoid a primary. Nothing yet from Capuano, Khazei or some of the other potential candidates, but I imagine their arms are getting twisted quite severely.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

And Tsongas says "no."
Rep. Niki Tsongas withdrew her name from consideration this afternoon. Gotta give the Dems credit for consolidating quickly behind their guy, whacko though he is.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

MA-Sen: Markey In | 37 comments
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