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Mini-Roundup for December 28, 2012

by: shamlet

Fri Dec 28, 2012 at 07:00:00 AM EST


There are a small handful of items worth noting from the last two days...

MA-Sen: Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll (D), who is often mentioned as a possible statewide prospect but likely too short on name rec to be a serious contender right now, is officially out.

HI-Gov, HI-Sen: Anonymous sources say Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is being encouraged to challenge unpopular Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the D primary. Hanabusa, or someone else in the HIDP's vast bench, could also take on newly appointed Sen. Brian Schatz.

HI-LG: In other Hawaii news, State Senate President Shan Tsutsui (D-Wailuku, Maui) has ascended to the office of Lt. Governor. Tsutsui is the first LG to come from Maui, and the first since 1962 to come from an island other than Oahu. 

NJ-Gov, etc.: EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson is stepping down, with running for Governor as a Dem in her native NJ as a remote possibility. Another possibility I might throw out is that she could be a good running mate for someone like Sweeney or Pascrell. Being #2 would boost her name rec while largely shielding her from blame for any loss to Christie. That said, the most likely future for her is in the private sector.

IA-Gov: Ex-Gov Chet Culver (D) confirms he is looking at a rematch with Terry Branstad. Culver would almost certainly clear a primary field.

Minneapolis-Mayor: Mayor R.T. Rybak (D), often speculated as a candidate for higher office, is stepping down at the end of his term next year. Our own OGGoldy gives some possible replacements here.
shamlet :: Mini-Roundup for December 28, 2012
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Minneapolis Mayor
One name I saw on the news this morning was former Speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher. I didn't figure she would be interested after how her gubernatorial run in 2010 ended, but apparently her name is at least being floated by the media.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

A Haggerty/Durkee in Dewhurst's campaign
http://www.dallasnews.com/news...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Lisa Jackson
I thought I had heard she is the favorite to become the President of Princeton University. I may be mistaken, but I swore I had heard that.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

I heard similar
I doubt she runs for Governor.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Obama Exec Order on Fed Salaries
http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

Stuff like makes it clear he just isn't serious to cut debt


Costas can't be that naive
The pay raise is 1/2-1% a year and will cost $11 billion over 10 years. You don't increase the deficit much by increasing spending by $1.1 billion. This isn't where serious deficit cutters go.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Agree for the most part
This is not going to make or break the deficit, but it shows a sentiment of arrogance in a time of apparent austerity.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Damn smart type
Obviously that headline has nothing to do with what I wrote.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Its just petty flaunting
The only reason he's doing it is to basically thumb his nose at the Republican party and say "You can't stop me from spending money".

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Of course they can't
The House of Representatives appropriates money and the executive branch spends it. Obama can't spend money that isn't appropriated. So this money has to come out of some appropriation.

When it comes to spending the House has a lot more power than people think it does. Even mandatory spending must be appropriated. Of course any appropriations bill must also be passed by the senate and signed by the President. So while Obama has influence over appropriations, he has greater discretion over the money once they give to him.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Not serious at all
I would not have a problem if these raises were contractually required or federal employees had not received raises in a number of years and it was leading to employees bailing ship for other jobs at a high rate.  This seems to be purely discretionary on the part of the president.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Appears that Abercrombie hated Inouye
...stuck it to him.

http://www.politico.com/story/...


MA-SEN
Kerry endorsed Markey.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


DSCC too


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Vicki Kennedy also


(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Time to double-down on an earlier prediction
Brown, who wants the goriest bloodbath possible on the D side, will pass on MA-Sen, leaving Weld to embark on his dream of a commonwealth comeback. Markey v. Weld probably starts Lean D, but could swing a notch left or right.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Brown for better or worse looks to be going now
Just a prediction, and what I am hearing. Or at least his circle thinks he is.

Though it now looks like he may be running against an incumbent.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
from DKE
but I'm sure you'll enjoy it too.

http://www.sporcle.com/games/d...

Get as many counties as possible.  I got 2059.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


Nice idea, annoying execution
When I was at 700-something, it would refuse to accept any input from me-- it'd just take the first letter and then reset to nothing when I entered a second one.


[ Parent ]
LA-Sen; Hope for Jindal supporters?
"Among the Republicans said to be looking at a 2014 race against Landrieu are Reps. Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge, John Fleming, R-Minden and outgoing Rep. Jeff Landry, R-New Iberia. Some believe that Gov. Bobby Jindal, a Republican who has been feuding with Landrieu, might jump into the race, though aides dismiss the speculation as misguided."

http://mobile.nola.com/nolabat...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


State Sen. Herron for TN Dem Party Chair
Herron lost the TN-8 Congressional election in 2010 and is retiring from the state senate this year.  Removes one of the Dems top 10 statewide candidates from 2014 Gov and Sen races.

http://www.tennessean.com/arti...

33, R, IN-09


Not really
Herron was never going to run for statewide office, and of course he would have lost by 20-30 points if he did.

[ Parent ]
Herron's shortcomings as a father are too well-known in certain circles
for him to successfully run statewide. Even in a great D wave year, all it would take is for someone to go to the Commercial Appeal or the Tennessean with a few stories that have made their way through the grapevine, and he'd be done. Otherwise, he's a great candidate on paper. However, if someone as lowly as me knows enough to hurt him, others know a lot more.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Roy Herron
If these supposed shortcomings are so damaging, why did not a single one of them come out in 2010 when he ran for John Tanner's open TN-08?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
No one wanted to talk about them because no one needed to talk about them.
Fincher wasn't in those circles, but it didn't matter, because I'm sure that his polling showed him winning. After he ran, Herron's profile increased, which probably helped the rumors spread farther than they had already gone. Also, I'm sure that some of them hadn't happened yet and others hadn't made the rumor rounds. These are all word-of-mouth, and since non-family members weren't present, at least for the two incidents that I've heard about, they took a while to filter through. Rumors of this kind are also highly personal, so anyone who knew early on wouldn't want to say anything. You would have to get many people removed from the source before someone would be willing to go on record.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
At that point, as long as he gets his family to deny it,
a) I'm not sure any newspaper would touch it, whatever it is,
and b) no candidate would.

People don't like attacks that can be easily dismissed as baseless and vile speculations on his status as a good family man when there's no evidence to back it up, and people wouldn't believe "But, this guy I know who is a cousin of this woman who is a good friend of Herron's wife said xxx" when Herron's wife just says "Nah, I've never met this person before".


[ Parent ]
You make a good point.
I've seen things like this sink candidates, but I will concede that there's usually more to the story, and that's what usually sinks them.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
To be clear...
These stories aren't on the level that would kill any statewide campaign anywhere, but in Tennessee, a Democrat has to both run a perfect campaign with no bad luck and have the fundamentals on his side. This would go under the heading of 'bad luck.'

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Herron's shortcomings are irrelevant to how he would do statewide
The TNDP is completely in shambles. There's no attempt at voter connection or education in Central TN or West TN. There's no effort to even slightly rebrand the state party (which is being done in some southern states, albeit without much success). Herron would have lost his State Senate district if he had run for reelection. Voters are getting more reflexively Republican in West TN and I guess the Democrats have just decided the best path forward is to ignore them. And on the statewide thing, I don't think Herron could manage much enthusiasm in urban areas. He'll lose by 20-30 points, regardless of any potential "shortcomings" (I don't think they'd have a negative impact on him; they just wouldn't help).  

[ Parent ]
I partially agree
I think that he'd connect well with AAs. He's an ordained minister, and I could see AAs turning out at good rates for him, even in a midterm year. I do agree with you that he probably wouldn't inspire much enthusiasm in urban and suburban white liberals.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
How popular is Haslam? Really popular, right?
I think he'd have to wait until 2018, regardless.

[ Parent ]
Haslam is very popular. I wasn't suggesting that Herron could beat him.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
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