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New Year's Weekend Open Thread

by: shamlet

Fri Dec 28, 2012 at 20:00:00 PM EST

Questions -

1. What were your 1-3 favorite (i.e. most inspiring/amusing/interesting) electoral news stories of 2012?

2. With his new massive establishment support, Does Markey clear the primary field in MA? And as a corollary, does Brown run?

shamlet :: New Year's Weekend Open Thread
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Best electoral stories of the year
1) Tom Cotton absolutely embarrassing a real dolt in Beth Anne Rankin in the AR-04 primary was just amazing. I was also quite pleased by a really lackluster candidate in David Dewhurst's defeat at the hands of Ted Cruz. Dewhurst had "backbencher" written all over him. Cotton and Cruz are indisputably going to be a hugely important part, if not the future, of the GOP.

2) Andy Barr upsetting Ben Chandler and Keith Rothfus beating a grade A jerk in Mark Critz were both huge bring spots on a bleak election night. Both of them ran great campaigns, had catchy advertising campaigns, and will make great additions to the house.

3) Steve Litzow winning so handily in WA-SD41, precisely the type of seat I like to see a moderate GOP candidate overperform in, made me very happy. Litzow's the type we should run and take seriously in similar seats nationwide.  

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

FISA has become noncontroversial
After the Dems made a massive stink about it in 2008, it was just reauthorized by the Senate.

Go figure.

28, R, PA-07.

New York congressional districts
Not only doesn't New York have Obama-Romney votes broken down by congressional district, but they also don't have congressional votes broken down by congressional district for many districts. The counties either don't have vote totals or they aren't up to date. I can't find any source for New York City congressional votes by congressional district.

Thus, final vote totals for the President and congressional races aren't official anywhere. We do know Obama won Nassau 53%-46% and Suffolk 51%-48%. About 25-30k of the Nassau vote is in NY-5 and about 25-30k of the Queens vote is in NY-3. The Nassau vote that in NY-5 is heavily Obama since it consists of African-American precincts. Removing that makes NY 1-4 more Romney

That said, I've estimated Obama-Romney numbers for NY 1-4 based on what I do have.

NY-1 Obama 50.6%-48.2%
NY-2 Obama 50.6%-48.3%
NY-3 Obama 52.7%-46.2%
NY-4 Obama 54.4%-44.6%

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Wasserman still think there is 400kish votes left in NYC.  Will they ever finish counting?

34/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
They may have already
Wasserman thought there were 800k-1m votes left in NY about 75k votes ago. What happened to the other 500k votes he thought were there? The state hasn't updated their vote totals in two weeks, although Nassau and Westchester did update theirs about a week ago.

The state of New York had to certify their Presidential results prior to the electoral college vote. Most states have a certification deadline where all county is completed prior to that.

In order to serve in congress, a victor must be certified by his or her state. Most states require counting to be finished prior to doing that. Congressmen are expected to be sworn in next Thursday.

If New York procedure is similar to other states and follows Federal law they've finished counting all the ballots.

I don't think there are any ballots left to count. I just think the results have yet to be reported by the state on their website.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I know in past NY elections if the results are not contested or in doubt
they sometimes wont count some of the provisional & paper ballots.

[ Parent ]
In CA, they are legally required to
Every ballot must be counted

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Final (My Guess) Official Results from the City of New York
Obama/Biden 1,987,013
Romney/Ryan 435,564

[ Parent ]
The answer to 1 is kind of hard. It was a bit of a tough year electorally so not sure how to answer but here goes the Top 3 List:

#3) NY State Senate majority auction! Nothing like the corrupt bumblings of the nations most corrupt and dysfunctional legislature for amusing and interesting political watching.

#2) Smoke'em if you got them! I think the passing of the CO & WA state marijuana decimalization measures will be a real game changer on this issue. Will be interesting to see if our Commander and Chief and ex Choom Gang member who got elected with the overwhelming support of many a pothead will now unleash the full shock and awe of the massive force of the Federal Department of Justice and its overwhelming Kafkaesque bureaucracy to crush the State Rights will of the people on this issue.

#1) The Congress Claus! This is really the plot to a bad Disney (or Lifetime) Christmas movie. I can see some Hollywood screen writer getting laughed out of a studio office for pitching this Santa Claus Goes To Washington script. But it really happening. Kerry Bentivolio is coming to town and it is my favorite Capraesque story of the year.  

1. A. First and foremost it would be the data stories about the Obama Re-elect written in the days after the election.  I really like reading about the work Harper Reed, Jim Messina and co. did over the past 4 years and I hope a book is written about it.

B. I enjoyed the MA-SEN storyline, especially on both sides on a week to week basis (Especially on DKE and RRH), and how it became meme like at times.  

C. Unskewed Polls/Anti-538 stories I also found to be very interesting.

2. I think he does, outside of Bob Massie type candidates.

34/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

AL-State House: Mike Hubbard to seek reelection to the House
Hubbard is the current House speaker and there were some suggestions he was looking at the gubernatorial race. Hubbard is one of the most powerful men in Alabama politics right now. People are already speculating he will run for governor in 2018.

If anybody is interested in a southern political book, Hubbard wrote "Storming the State House: The Campaign That Liberated Alabama from 136 Years of Democratic Rule." I highly suggest it.

The rumor around Alabama is that Attorney General Luther Strange is being primed for a Senate seat (Shelby or Sessions) whenever they retire. Strange is the most popular Republican in Alabama right now.

Good book
I received the book at Christmas and have read it. It's good, nothing extraordinary, or "the blueprin to win campaigns", imho, but good nevertheless.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Re: Strange
He seemed to have real trouble getting elected to stuff until 2010 tho

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics

[ Parent ]
AL-GOP: Bentley tries to remove state party chair
This was not reported, but a few weeks ago Governor Bentley has announced he will not support current State GOP Chair Bill Armistead for another term as Chairman of the State Republican Party. Bentley will instead support Matt Fridy, Chairman of the Shelby County Republican Party and a major voice against the Alabama Educational Association to be state party chair.

If you recall, in 2010, State Representative Jay Love (last seen losing to Bobby Bright in 2008) tried to gain control of the state party, with the support of moderate Governor Bob Riley. Bentley got his man, Armistead. This time, both Riley supporters and 2010 Armistead supporters want Fridy in office.

And here is a link
Hubbard is quite the controversial figure.

[ Parent ]
Other Alabama stories
District Attorney for the 24th Judicial Circuit Chris McCool has switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party:

It sounds like the endorsements for Markey have emboldened him, and made him more likely to run:

"It seems that the big names of our party are trying to choose our nominee for us," Capuano, who was elected to his eighth term in November, said in a statement. "When I became mayor of Somerville the establishment wasn't with me. When I became a member of Congress the establishment wasn't with me. If I make this run it will be the same way - from the streets up, not from the elite down."

Male, LA-01
Scott Walker '16

Aaron Schock
Is it me, or is Schock beefing up his FoxNews availability - with FoxNews happily helping out with that - in recent weeks? He is now a somewhat more regular guest on tv ... if he wants to run for Governor, upping his name recognition might not be the worst thing to do.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

UT-2; Josh Romney itching to take on Rep. Stewart?

Some stated in the past he wanted to take Matheson on, but towards the bottom of the article, it mentions a rumor of him taking Stewart on.

30/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Marco Rubio For President!

Stewart seems lukewarm on gun control legislation
That came as a surprise to me. And it may be the opening that Josh Romney would need to run a primary.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
He's also a squish on taxes
from what I know. Plus with what he did at the convention that guy does not have any business representing Utah.

Given that the odds of him beating Matheson are lower, I'm now 100% in favor of Josh Romney taking him on.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It says he's itching to challenge Mike Lee
but obviously Stewart would be a better target for him.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
You're right
I guess I woke up a bit earlier than my eyes wanted, lol.

30/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Marco Rubio For President!

[ Parent ]
I've been thinking about 2020 Michigan redistricting.
Assuming Republicans still have the power to pass a plan.

Too lazy to diary it up, but

Image Hosted by

Image Hosted by

I stayed as closely with the 2010 lines as possible, tried to maintain the 2 VRA districts (if that will be possible is up in the air), and used some rudimentary county population projections for 2020 to factor in disproportional population growth in different areas.

Basically it ends up giving Sander Levin the short stick, but it's not like he'd be around--or at least in Congress- by then, so it'll end up eliminating some junior Democrat.

Bentivolio's seat also gets kind of scuttled, but it should remain Republican.

Would that 5 be a Republican seat?
I think it will still probably make sense to have a Flint-Saginaw-Bay City sink, but it might be able to reach over to Lansing by then.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
No, that would be a Democratic seat still.
Flint-Sagninaw-Bay City-Lansing would be difficult under the Michigan county split provisions. The other thing is that I wanted to leave Lansing with Rogers because he has cross-over strength there, so it's really not a big deal if he has it in his district. And he can be a Rep through 2030.  

[ Parent ]
This would be a fairly secure 9-4 Republican map.
Doing anything more would be total overreach.

[ Parent ]
This way is a serious waste of the thumb though
which is already fairly Republican and trending right. And those ancestrally D counties north of Bay City are getting more R-favorable too.

If you don't split Shiawasee it probably won't be all that hard.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Also, there's no need for 8 to take part of Genesee
that will help cleanliness.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
That part is Republican though, so pulling out of the thumb to
take in that part of Genesee (which is as big as one of the thumb counties) doesn't do anything.

[ Parent ]
Wait, so your idea is to give the thumb to MI-8 (which probably leaves
Rogers out of a seat), or what? Because Miller needs to stay Macomb-centric, otherwise you need to give Southern Macomb to a Democrat.

It wouldn't really affect the partisan balance of the map. MI-8 is already pretty safely Republican, you don't really need a better vote sinked MI-5. You won't get to a 10-3 whatever you do, and a 9-4 is pretty secure without going extreme lengths.

[ Parent ]
Get rid of
Mt Clements, most of Clinton Twp. and Roseville to 13 (and the rest of blueing Warren while you're at it.) Those areas will probably trend left with Detroit Efflux. You have room for another Oakland-Wayne cross because of VRA considerations so give Livonia and Plymouth back to 9. Dearborn goes back to 11, and then 12 takes the Macomb portion of 13. Then 8 can take more of Oakland, Miller gets the thumb back, and 5 goes to Saginaw and Lansing.

To unsink 8 and re-equalize population, have it soak up the worse parts of Oakland from 9. You've got some pretty toxic areas in that seat in West Bloomfield and Madison Heights. Some of those could go into 8 depending on how you want to design it.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
drop Bay City
It is not that liberal compared to the other 2.

You can give it to Camp as long as he gets some of the Thumb.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
clear violation of Michigan rule
No double crossing the same two county between the same two districts.

43 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
where, in the Detroit area? That's for VRA purposes.

[ Parent ]
Yup, in the Detriot area
The VRA can only trump Michigan law if there's no way to draw that's both compliant with VRA and with Michigan law and even then only to the minimum extent needed.

43 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Well, then the exercize is moot.
You'll need to go to Ypsilanti to keep two VRA districts, and if I don't wrap the 12th around that to keep it in the Detroit area, it will eat up a bunch of Indiana border counties, and then every district gets reconfigured.

But the idea here was to show how population shifts between 2010 and 2020 and the loss of a district impact the map by keeping it close to the current one, not to make a completely new GOP map.

[ Parent ]
my shot

People will not like that 8th district from Livingston to Livonia at all, but whatever.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Nice Job
I would tweak a few things, but this is quite similar to what I would draw.  Frankenmuth and southern Genesee could be saved, and a little more of Washtenaw and Oakland given to dems.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Well, I took population shifts into account to see which
things start and stop working, so for equivalence you'd need to overpopulate your two VRA districts by about 80,000 each to account for population loss by 2020. I'm not sure your configuration holds then.  

[ Parent ]
well, the population shifts only favor the GOP here
I didn't do any guesswork. If any 3 districts are underpopulated, its the 3 Dem ones in Wayne County.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
looks like another Michigan law violation
The purple district can't cross north if the tomato district also does.

43 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
eh they've done that on the 2012 map
Double crossings are allegedly permitted for the black districts.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
West Michigan is pretty good, but Republican territory is wasted in the Thumb and Livonia areas, and too much dem territory (Warren, Roseville, Saginaw, Scio) is in GOP seats.  Districts 7, 10, and 11 would be vulnerable under this plan.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
7 is 51.8% Obama against McCain. 10 is 50.5% Obama against McCain. 11 is 52.8% Obama against McCain, but should have gone for Romney by like 2 points.

The part of Warren that's in a GOP district voted 56% Obama in 2008 and probably voted for him by like 3 points in 2012. Roseville is in a safe GOP seat-- that Miller seat probably voted for Romney by 10 points.

I guess Camp and Kildee switching Saginaw for Arenac and Iosco would be an easy fix.

[ Parent ]
I was thinking of 7 and 11 with their current incumbents.  They would win in neutral years but be vulnerable in wave years.

10 would be safe for Miller, but very vulnerable if open.  Statewide election numbers are extremely misleading for Macomb.  Local dems do much better than national ones.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Tallying up the State House vote for 2012 for Macomb
(all districts were at least sorta competitive), Democrats got 49% of the two-way vote, as Obama won the county. Republicans won 5 seats, Democrats 4.  

[ Parent ]
By my calculations, dems got 53-54% of the two-party state house vote.  Dems won five seats and Republicans won 4.5 (I didn't include half of 32 in these calculations, but it wouldn't change them significantly.)  In six of the nine races, the winner got more than 60%, which isn't what I'd consider competitive.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Final Results from New York State
Obama/Biden 4,464,583
Romney/Ryan 2,480,303

National Final Results (Just a guess)

Obama/Biden 65,891,879
Romney/Ryan 60,926,828

Link to ny final?

34/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I believe that's Daniel's guess....
based on his estimation of the final NYC results in a prior post in this thread.

[ Parent ]
There was just a huge NYC vote dump
Over 322k votes. Obama got 84% of it.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
If those are the New York finals then on my spreadsheet the national final vote would be:

Obama 65,892,269
Romney 60,926,830

It also means that Virginia does end up with an ever-so-slight D+ PVI (the only one still in doubt between D+ or R+).

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Guess what? It exists!

As I speculated they've finished counting in New York City. They just finally put out the certified report. There were 322k additional votes. That's a good amount, although not quite the 400k Wasserman anticipated. That'll put the NY margin at 28.2%, an increase over 2008. It's interesting how NY and NJ are the two of the states Obama improved over 2008.

If this is the last of New York state the vote totals are:

Obama 65,892,295, 51.1%
Romney 60,926,834, 47.3%

I'll crunch some of these numbers.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
House vote
These results alone pushed the two party House vote from 50.50%-49.50% to 50.58%-49.42%.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yikes (Bob Turner)
From Facebook...

Bob Turner
After 30 years as a customer - HSBC Bank notified me via letter that they have terminated our relationship. When I called to inquire why this happened - they stated that they do not need to provide me with any reason. Apparently the bank has automated processes that terminate relationships with accounts that show unusual activity. As a result of the hurricane, I have had a series of insurance checks deposited into my account as well as withdrawals to replace items lost. This is the height of impersonal banking and a real problem. If you or anyone you know has had a similar situation, please let me know. This is the last thing that people who have been displaced by the storm need to deal with right now.

Poor guy. First he loses his home during Hurricane Sandy, then his bank bails on him... It's been a tough year for Bob Turner.

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

There are plenty of banks that'll be happy to hold his money and HSBC sucks, which is why their US financial services division has been acquired by Capital One and most of their US banks are going to First Niagara. So, Turner should be happy they made a decision for him that he should've gone ahead and made anyhow.

Very unfortunate about his home though.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Lawmakers try to curb anonymous political donations in California

It wouldn't bother me so much when Democrats do this if they'd just admit they were doing it so they could eliminate support for Republicans. These laws only affect corporations and mega-donors, not unions, who support Republicans. They know that if they can make all donors public they can stop them from supporting Republicans. It's how they wiped out all opposition to Prop. 39.

Of course the writer quotes no Republicans or people who support them. He doesn't even state that such people declined to comment for the article. The reader is left to believe that all good people support this and those that oppose are money launderers who seek to steal elections.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Playing with fire
Today might be a day in infamy for GOP, looking years down.

Whatever the outcome of fiscal cliff, GOP will be remembered as the party that would not even consider raising rates on millionaires, when 70%+ are ok with even as low as 250k level.    As hard as it is for me to accept, David Frum might be right after all.....painful to admit.  

My ideal outcome of the fiscal cliff would have been GOP getting the tax raising threshold raised to $400k and getting the estate tax fixed at $5M/35% rate fixed for ever (from a tax morality point of view, the estate tax at $1M/55% is what I find most abhorrent), and letting have their unemployment extension, now the employment extension is the new never ending welfare scheme, I see it all around me in CA central valley but lets play this out a little bit more until more people see it our way.

Politics is all about playing the long game, Dems know is totally, they are going to get all what they want and not even pretend it is happening.  

42, Ross Perot Republican, CA-10

Politics is about the short game, not the long game.
All though 2011 we heard that Republicans "killing Medicare" and the evils of the Ryan budget were going to lead to the downfall of the GOP. In the 2012 election Republicans won overwhelmingly with the very people Democrats were trying to scare and the Ryan budget was only a small factor because Paul Ryan was on the ticket.

26% of people said that Sandy was a factor, with 15% saying it was the most important factor. Consider that after all the campaigning and advertising 15% of people voting said the most important factor in their decision happened a week before the election.

It'd be nice if the GOP were remembered as the party that won't consider raising taxes on anyone, but this "crisis" will be long forgotten in 2014.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I hope you're right
Otherwise we can stick a fork into 2014 right from the beginning ...

which brings me to another point: We're hearing all the time that Democrats and the MSM are hammering all these bad things (sarcasm mine) about Republicans into the heads of voters. But the so-called MSM are reaching about the audience COMBINED that FoxNews reaches, yet in every single poll, a healthy plurality woud put blame squarely on Republican shoulders. How come?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Your information is faulty.
If we're just talking about cable news, then yes, Fox News often beats the others combined. However, network news and newspapers combined crush Fox News. Fox News is lucky if their highest rated show, the O'Reilly Factor, even gets in spitting distance of the lowest-rated network news broadcast on any given night. Also, many people don't even watch or read more than a tiny amount of news every week.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Even I'd place the blame on Republicans
That is, a certain segment of House Republicans who seem incapable of budging one centimeter.

If it were up to me, I'd give the Democrats their tax rate hikes on $250K+ and even bring estate tax rates back to Clinton levels, BUT...only in return for bold entitlement reform. Eligibility ages for Medicare and Social Security go up to 70, the latter gets the means testing treatment and the former gets a premium support option. Everyone leaves the room miserable but hey, a lot of sh-t gets done in the process.

25, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at

[ Parent ]
The problem with that is of course... Obama told Boehner, he gets the tax hikes for free.  

[ Parent ]
They were always free
Taxes go up for everybody on January 1 if they do nothing and it's unlikely Republicans will oppose a tax cut for people making under $200k per year if that's a stand alone bill in January.

The tax cuts were only part of this. The spending cuts, unemployment, and debt ceiling were the other issues.

Here's a question:

If you're a Democrat running in a swing district, wouldn't you want to run against a Republican who voted to raise taxes? It doesn't matter if you'd have voted the same way. If a Republicans is going to raise taxes, why vote for him over the Democrat?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
We knew they had all the leverage
Boehner tried to play the PR game but the caucus revolt ended that. I'm not sure it'll be that much of a long-term problem though. Soon enough after the New Year some number of Republicans will  band together with the D's and pass the tax cuts for those under 250k, leaving most people exactly where they started. No one will care after that.

Rand 2016

[ Parent ]
Paying attention to real needs of your constituency.
Why not take the $250k thing of the table and with it fix what one of your core bases really gets hurt from, estate tax!  All the small business forced to give half of what they have worked all their lives to build to likes of Charlie Rangel to spend on his people. Who really gets hurt by the $250k thing are educated upper income professionals especially DINKS who get all their income on W2's, and who are most of them??? In  my circle I am the only R.  Our guys earning $250k+ will overwhelmingly tend to be small business owners (contractors, food franchise owners, auto, etc), they have multiple ways to manage their taxes, now what really gets them in the end is estate tax.

I am going to write a separate diary on why/how the R's really need to get their head out of their rear and start paying attention like a laser to the real needs of their  constituencies, America is in the era of ethic vote bank politics (actually has been for a long time), D's have know it for a long time and are masterful at playing it. R's suck at it and get blamed in the media all the time for it, so why not learn to do it better.  I am going to take a contrarian look to social security and medicare from R perspective....

When 70% of people are ok with doing something in a democracy, standing on the other side is dumber than standing infront of a running freight train.

42, Ross Perot Republican, CA-10

[ Parent ]
They're back to negotiating
Or, more precisely, the GOP has caved on its latest demand, which is basically how negotiating works when you have no cards to put on the table.

G.O.P. Yields on Fiscal Point, Clearing Way for More Talks

To hold the line against raising taxes on high-income households while fighting for cuts to Social Security was "not a winning hand," Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, said.

What perplexes me about these Senate negotiations is that I cannot imagine the House GOP will vote to pass what is being reported as the basic framework of the Senate deal. Is Boehner really planning to try and pass this primarily with Democratic votes?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
He won't
He has said as much. He won't introduce a bill that won't get at least 130 Republican votes.

If he does, he might as well hand over the Speaker gavel to Nancy Pelosi since she'll be the one who shepherds legislation past the House. Would he still be voted Speaker if there's a bill where 50 Republicans vote in favor and 190 vote against?

Obama and Reid have been negotiating from a position where they have they hold all the cards and are pushing the Republicans to capitulate.

Obama bashed Republicans on "Meet The Press." That might be a smart tactic to get him re-elected and perhaps elect Democrats in an election. Of course, he's not still running for anything and Democrats don't stand for another election for 22 months. Bashing Republicans isn't a good way to negotiate with them, however. In fact, it'll make them more intransigent.

Republicans believe that no deal will be better for them than a bad one.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen; A roundup of potential candidates

30/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Marco Rubio For President!

I for HI
Want to see a poll there.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
Me too
though it will probably be off by 25%+ if they're polling a D primary.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Looks like Nolan's successor of choice is Jeff Anderson. I don't expect Nolan to do more than about 3 terms.


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

I seem to recall you saying that he was likely running just for one more term so he could warm the seat for someone who wanted to run in 2014. Unless I'm remembering wrong (maybe someone else said that, but I do remember that having been said), did that person lose interest?

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
That was what he initially said
When he was staffing up early in 2011. However he quickly changed his tune once it appeared as though he may actually get the endorsement, and his entire campaign revolted against him and he hired a brand new staff in fall 2011.

And as for the candidate: yes, there is still interest, and there will be a primary whenever he hangs it up.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
NY Obama-Romney
I've revised my Obama-Romney estimates based on the certified results. Note that the numbers for NY-21 and NY-26 are actual and not estimated.

NY-1 - Obama 50.9-47.9
NY-2 - Obama 50.8-48.1
NY-3 - Obama 52.8-46.2
NY-4 - Obama 55.0-44.1
NY-11 - Obama 51.1-47.8
NY-17 - Obama 58.5-40.5
NY-18 - Obama 51.4-47.2
NY-19 - Obama 50.1-47.5
NY-20 - Obama 60.5-37.5
NY-21 - Obama 52.2-46.1
NY-22 - Romney 49.5-48.4
NY-23 - Romney 50.1-47.9
NY-24 - Obama 57.3-40.8
NY-25 - Obama 58.6-39.5
NY-26 - Obama 63.7-34.6
NY-27 - Romney 54.7-43.5

Based on my estimates New York PVIs moved toward Obama by anywhere from 0.2 to 4.1.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

PVI distribution
It's not final and includes estimates

R + 5+ - 195
R+4-5 - 9
R+3-4 - 12
R+2-3 - 10
R+1-2 - 9
R+0-1 - 6
D+0-1 - 7
D+1-2 - 7
D+2-3 - 4
D+3-4 - 10
D+4-5 - 8
D+5+ - 157

Median PVI: R+2.9
Romney won 226 districts, Obama 209

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Thad Cochran
Cochran is expected to challenge Pat Roberts for Head of the Senate Agricultural Committee (he is term limited at Appropriations). If you've been following the farm bill, you'll know that there was a big debate about southern agricultural interests vs midwestern agricultural interests. If Cochran doesn't beat Roberts, I expect his retirement potential goes up quite a bit.

Is Roberts similarly likely
to retire if he loses out?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I don't know
Roberts seems more enthusiastic about running for reelection to begin with. Cochran seems like he needs a "ranking member" position to be convinced into running again.

Who votes for committee assignments? The Senate Agricultural Committee next term (minus Lugar) is 5-4 in favor of midwestern interests, which would point to a Roberts win, I think.

Shelby is moving to Appropriations, btw.

[ Parent ]
ND-SEN: Berg still had several $100Ks in the bank
AR-GOV: Curtis Coleman resurfaces, starts fundraising

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