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13 District MI - Dem Gerrymander 10D, 3R

by: Republican Michigander

Sun Dec 30, 2012 at 16:42:11 PM EST


Dem Gerrymander: (I'll have an R one later)
Note that Michigan's APOL standards are much less strict with federal districts due to all districts needing to be exactly equal.

Part of this is isn't just the top/bottom numbers, but matchups.

10D (9 w Upton), 3R, (1 swing w Upton)

demgerrymander1

demgerrymander2

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Republican Michigander :: 13 District MI - Dem Gerrymander 10D, 3R
Blue - MI-01 Benishek) - 91.7% White, 52.2% Obama 08, Lean D.  - This is a bad matchup. The dilemma I had with this district is what to do with Mt Pleasant. I thought about trying to balance this MI-01 and MI-03 to make two swing districts, but the bench in the Muskegon area is thin as the dems there have trouble even with the state senate district. I decided to solidify the 1st by adding all of Bay County, Mt Pleasant, the conservadem areas of Ogemaw, Roscommon, Gladwin, and Arenac Counties. Joel Sheltrown or a McDowell/Stupak type will probably win this with no Antrim, Otsego, or Grand Traverse County to counterbalance it.  I overpopulated this district by about 7300 voters due to decline.

Green - MI-02 (Huizenga, maybe Amash) -  86.8% White, 57.8% McCain, Safe R - This is a West Michigan red sink.  Ottawa, Allegan, Barry, and most of the R parts of Kent County.  I underpopulated this district by 21,000 as Ottawa , Allegan, and Barry are fast growing areas.

Dark Magenta - MI-03 (open) - 89% White, 51.9% Obama 08. Lean/Tilt R - This was the leftover district.  Muskegon County is a dem stronghold. Grand Traverse ,  Charlevoix, and Antrim Counties anchor a republican base. I think it leans R, but that lakeshore is trending dem to an extent with the Chicago influence and longtime union presence in Muskegon and (lesser extent) Manistee Counties.  I underpopulated this district by about 5000 due to the growth in NW Michigan. I thought about combining Grand Rapids and Muskegon, but that would at best create a swing district.

Red - MI-04  (Open or Amash) - 74.7% White, 10.8% Black, 58.6% Obama 08. Safe D. People underestimate how democrat Grand Rapids and Ingham County actually are. Ingham County is overshadowed by Mike Rogers and Livingston County, and usually Grand Rapids suburbs outvote Grand Rapids itself. I put most of the burbs in the MI-02 votesink, and added Republican Ionia and Clinton Counties (and most of Eaton) to take them away from other districts.  I overpopulated this district by about 8000 due to population loss in GR and Lansing.  The primary here would be quite interesting.

Gold - MI-05 (Kildee/Camp) - 76.2% White, 16.3% Black, 60.6% Obama 08. Safe D. I put all of Genesee County outside of Fenton/Argentine, all of Saginaw County, Shiawassee County, and Midland County together. Camp is strong, but he doesn't have the City of Saginaw, nor any of Genesee County which anchors a district in his current area. I overpopulated by 12,000 votes.

Teal - MI-06 (Upton) - 80.2% White, 10.2% Black, 55.1% Obama 08, Swing with Upton, Lean D otherwise.  I dropped Allegan County, added Calhoun County, and snuck in part of Eaton County (Delta Twp) to almost recreate the old Howard Wolpe District from the 80's. Kalamazoo County has gotten more democrat since then. Mark Schauer would probably try a comeback there. I overpopulated this district by about 6000.

Dark Gray - MI-07 (Walberg) - 82.2% White, 58.7% Obama 08 - Safe D.  The good news for Walberg is that he keeps his base areas of Hillsdale, Branch, and Lenawee County. He also keeps Monroe and Jackson Counties. The bad news is Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti are now in the district. Most of the rest of Washtenaw are in the Dingell district. I overpopulated the district by 4000. There is a doublebreak, but the current 11th has this already (Farmington)

Slate Blue - MI-08 (Rogers) - 93.7% White, 52.5% McCain - Safe R. This is a red sink that covers Livingston, North Oakland, Fenton area of Genesee (Fenton covers parts of 3 counties) and the Thumb. I underpopulated by 32,000 due to Livingston, North Oakland, and Lapeer are growing. Rogers matches up well in almost all types of districts, and Livingston/North Oakland are strong enough to tilt an otherwise swing district to the R's. (ie 2000 Rogers). Romney cleaned up in this district, close to 60%.

Black - MI-09 (Levin) - 79.3% White, 54.7% Obama 08 - Lean D. I underpopulated this by 3000. The questions here are this. Which is the better anchor for the dems. South Macomb, or SE Oakland. The other is what do I do with North Macomb. I gave this district North Macomb, because North Oakland is more R downticket. Between Royal Oak, Pontiac, Auburn Hills, and West Bloomfield, this will likely be solid in 2020 for the D's if not quite there yet.

Deeppink - MI-10 (Miller) - 82.9% White, 54.9% Obama 08 - Lean D. I underpopulated this by 2300. This district is entirely in Macomb County and covers all of Southern and Central Macomb, and as little of North Macomb as possible.  If someone like Rocca or Brandenburg runs, there's a longshot for the R's to win. Otherwise, it's safe D.

Chatreuse - MI-11 (Dingell) - 80.9% White, 59.8% Obama 08 - Safe D. I underpopulated this by 8800. This district has all of Wayne County not in a VRA district, along with most of Washtenaw County. Livonia, Plymouth, and Northville aren't in it. It doesn't have Ann Arbor or Ypsi because it's not needed to keep this safe with downriver.

Cornflower Blue - MI-12 (Conyers) 48.6% Black/47.8% Voting Age Percentage (will probably be 50.1%+ by 2020). 40% White. 75.3% Obama 08. I gave Conyers much of Detroit, River Rouge, Ecorse, Redford, Inkster, Romulus, Wayne, and a small part of Westland. Livonia, Plymouth, and Northville get screwed.  I overpopulated this district by 15,000.

Dark Salmon - MI-13 (Peters/Bentivolio) - 50.9% Black.49.6 VAP. 40.7% White. 72.9% Obama 08. I gave Peters part of Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Oak Park, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Farmington. Novi, Southfield Twp, South Lyon, Lyon Twp, Bloomfield Twp, Milford, Birmingham, and Bloomfield Hills get screwed. I underpopulated this district by about 20000.  

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What would a court map look like?
Since its probably the most likely alternative to a GOP one.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


depends upon weather posters prediction about #12 is correct
If he is, the courts may go with the Democrat map like this.

But if he's both wrong about #12 being AA majority by VAP in 2020 (perhaps due to Hispanic growth) and its still possible to have two AA majority districts by VAP, the court will go for that instead.

As to a GOP map for 2020; something like the current one, with a White Democratic seat abolished since Michigan is highly likely to lose a seat.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Why is Muskegon not put into a Dem district?
I think it'd be easy to add it into the 6th, wouldn't it?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


oops
I see why now.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Ottawa County is the heart of Dutch Michigan
The joke about Ottawa County is that's where all the conservative Dutch moved to making the Netherlands so liberal.

Ottawa County outvotes Muskegon by itself, and with Allegan, you'll have basically the Hoekstra/Huizenga seat.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Would
Drawing the 1st along Lake Michigan instead of going down to Bay City be better?  Muskegon is bluer than any area of the 1st, and there are a couple other blue or purple counties along the way.  Also, by 2020, a lot of the conservaDem areas may have stopped voting for Democrats to the extent they do now.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I went with matchups
Muskegon dems tend not to sell outside of the county. They've gone 0-3 in a state senate district that covers the lakeshore (and Newaygo County). If a Muskegon dem (esp City) wins the primary, they will probably lose the general to even a troll GOP'er.

Bay City is slightly less dem outside of Jim Barcia types who are beloved in the district, but the dems there match up well in the rest of North Michigan.

Conservadem may be a bad word to use. Social Conservative Democrat may be a better one. Planned Parenthood, Handgun Control, and possibly GLAAD, would dislike these dems, but so would Grover Norquist, Mackinac Center, and the Chamber of Commerce.

If I'm a dem, I'm not going to give up on Alpena, West Branch, the UP, or Standish.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Good point
that a Muskegon Dem will probably be a liberal, while a Dem from Bay City will be more moderate, at least on many issues.  Hadn't really thought about that.

But as a Dem, I think Alpena and the UP are the past in the same way that Louisiana and Arkansas and West Virginia are the past.  Oakland County, Kalamazoo, the Lansing area...those are the future for Democrats.  You can't resurrect a dying coalition, and the socially conservative Democrats are dying, being replaced with socially conservative Republicans.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Pretty much true
A bit exaggerated, but quite a few Reformed Dutch immigrated to West Michigan and a few other areas (NW Iowa) during the first half of the 20th century.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Thoughts
1. A Republican could still win here, though not easily.

3. All state senators and all but two state reps in this district are Rs.

6. Rs have all state senators and all but 2.5 state reps in this district.  Not easy, but probably lean R.

7. Could Randy Richardville beat Alma Wheeler-Smith in this district?

9. Joe Knollenberg used to represent a district that was probably worse than this.  How long has it been since Sander Levin had to campaign?

10.  Miller would win this.  No other R would.

12. Why would this be more black?  Whites moving out?

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton


Answers
1. Possible, but I think Bay City would put it out of reach against a McDowell type, especially with the removal of Antrim and Otsego Counties.

3. Downticket favors here, but the lakeshore worries me. Dan Scripps sounded an alarm, despite being a one-termer.

6. That's why I snuck that up to Delta Township.

7. Possible (or against a Rebekah Warren) in a 2010 type, but probably too many straight tickets in a presidential year.

10. Miller 10 years ago could win this.

12. Yes. Redford's changing fast, as are those parts of Westland. Wayne probably is next (Airport area in general). Romulus is as well. Inkster's white minority is shrinking as well.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
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