| Blue - MI-01 Benishek) - 91.7% White, 52.2% Obama 08, Lean D. - This is a bad matchup. The dilemma I had with this district is what to do with Mt Pleasant. I thought about trying to balance this MI-01 and MI-03 to make two swing districts, but the bench in the Muskegon area is thin as the dems there have trouble even with the state senate district. I decided to solidify the 1st by adding all of Bay County, Mt Pleasant, the conservadem areas of Ogemaw, Roscommon, Gladwin, and Arenac Counties. Joel Sheltrown or a McDowell/Stupak type will probably win this with no Antrim, Otsego, or Grand Traverse County to counterbalance it. I overpopulated this district by about 7300 voters due to decline.
Green - MI-02 (Huizenga, maybe Amash) - 86.8% White, 57.8% McCain, Safe R - This is a West Michigan red sink. Ottawa, Allegan, Barry, and most of the R parts of Kent County. I underpopulated this district by 21,000 as Ottawa , Allegan, and Barry are fast growing areas.
Dark Magenta - MI-03 (open) - 89% White, 51.9% Obama 08. Lean/Tilt R - This was the leftover district. Muskegon County is a dem stronghold. Grand Traverse , Charlevoix, and Antrim Counties anchor a republican base. I think it leans R, but that lakeshore is trending dem to an extent with the Chicago influence and longtime union presence in Muskegon and (lesser extent) Manistee Counties. I underpopulated this district by about 5000 due to the growth in NW Michigan. I thought about combining Grand Rapids and Muskegon, but that would at best create a swing district.
Red - MI-04 (Open or Amash) - 74.7% White, 10.8% Black, 58.6% Obama 08. Safe D. People underestimate how democrat Grand Rapids and Ingham County actually are. Ingham County is overshadowed by Mike Rogers and Livingston County, and usually Grand Rapids suburbs outvote Grand Rapids itself. I put most of the burbs in the MI-02 votesink, and added Republican Ionia and Clinton Counties (and most of Eaton) to take them away from other districts. I overpopulated this district by about 8000 due to population loss in GR and Lansing. The primary here would be quite interesting.
Gold - MI-05 (Kildee/Camp) - 76.2% White, 16.3% Black, 60.6% Obama 08. Safe D. I put all of Genesee County outside of Fenton/Argentine, all of Saginaw County, Shiawassee County, and Midland County together. Camp is strong, but he doesn't have the City of Saginaw, nor any of Genesee County which anchors a district in his current area. I overpopulated by 12,000 votes.
Teal - MI-06 (Upton) - 80.2% White, 10.2% Black, 55.1% Obama 08, Swing with Upton, Lean D otherwise. I dropped Allegan County, added Calhoun County, and snuck in part of Eaton County (Delta Twp) to almost recreate the old Howard Wolpe District from the 80's. Kalamazoo County has gotten more democrat since then. Mark Schauer would probably try a comeback there. I overpopulated this district by about 6000.
Dark Gray - MI-07 (Walberg) - 82.2% White, 58.7% Obama 08 - Safe D. The good news for Walberg is that he keeps his base areas of Hillsdale, Branch, and Lenawee County. He also keeps Monroe and Jackson Counties. The bad news is Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti are now in the district. Most of the rest of Washtenaw are in the Dingell district. I overpopulated the district by 4000. There is a doublebreak, but the current 11th has this already (Farmington)
Slate Blue - MI-08 (Rogers) - 93.7% White, 52.5% McCain - Safe R. This is a red sink that covers Livingston, North Oakland, Fenton area of Genesee (Fenton covers parts of 3 counties) and the Thumb. I underpopulated by 32,000 due to Livingston, North Oakland, and Lapeer are growing. Rogers matches up well in almost all types of districts, and Livingston/North Oakland are strong enough to tilt an otherwise swing district to the R's. (ie 2000 Rogers). Romney cleaned up in this district, close to 60%.
Black - MI-09 (Levin) - 79.3% White, 54.7% Obama 08 - Lean D. I underpopulated this by 3000. The questions here are this. Which is the better anchor for the dems. South Macomb, or SE Oakland. The other is what do I do with North Macomb. I gave this district North Macomb, because North Oakland is more R downticket. Between Royal Oak, Pontiac, Auburn Hills, and West Bloomfield, this will likely be solid in 2020 for the D's if not quite there yet.
Deeppink - MI-10 (Miller) - 82.9% White, 54.9% Obama 08 - Lean D. I underpopulated this by 2300. This district is entirely in Macomb County and covers all of Southern and Central Macomb, and as little of North Macomb as possible. If someone like Rocca or Brandenburg runs, there's a longshot for the R's to win. Otherwise, it's safe D.
Chatreuse - MI-11 (Dingell) - 80.9% White, 59.8% Obama 08 - Safe D. I underpopulated this by 8800. This district has all of Wayne County not in a VRA district, along with most of Washtenaw County. Livonia, Plymouth, and Northville aren't in it. It doesn't have Ann Arbor or Ypsi because it's not needed to keep this safe with downriver.
Cornflower Blue - MI-12 (Conyers) 48.6% Black/47.8% Voting Age Percentage (will probably be 50.1%+ by 2020). 40% White. 75.3% Obama 08. I gave Conyers much of Detroit, River Rouge, Ecorse, Redford, Inkster, Romulus, Wayne, and a small part of Westland. Livonia, Plymouth, and Northville get screwed. I overpopulated this district by 15,000.
Dark Salmon - MI-13 (Peters/Bentivolio) - 50.9% Black.49.6 VAP. 40.7% White. 72.9% Obama 08. I gave Peters part of Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Oak Park, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Farmington. Novi, Southfield Twp, South Lyon, Lyon Twp, Bloomfield Twp, Milford, Birmingham, and Bloomfield Hills get screwed. I underpopulated this district by about 20000. |
