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CA SD-4 Election on Tuesday, January 8

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 19:23:26 PM EST

The run-off for SD-4, Doug LaMalfa's district, is this Tuesday for those of you who are in election withdrawal.  
Left Coast Libertarian :: CA SD-4 Election on Tuesday, January 8
The election will be between Republican Jim Nielsen and Democrat Mickey Harrington. The primary, which occurred on election day, produced a Republican landslide 61.3%-27.7%.

While we certainly got one-sided Republican primaries last June, the results of the November election were far closer. Republicans won a paltry 5 senate seats in November. Barack Obama got between 41.1% and 49.8%, two party, in each. The Democrat running in the general election got between 2.0% and 6.5% less than Obama.

In this district, Barack Obama got 45.8% of the vote, roughly mid-way between what he got in SD-23 and 37. While the Democrat in those elections got 43.0% and 43.7%, the Democrat here got 27.7%. Even if we credit all the NPP votes to Democrats we still end up with 38.7%, well below Democratic performance in similar districts.

Nielsen is certain to win. What's important for 2014 will be by how much. If Harrington gets below 40% it'll be easy to dismiss his performance as stemming from a low-turnout special election. If he gets in 41% or higher it might be a great sign for Democrats. Getting within 5% of Barack Obama now could mean a very strong 2014 in the Golden State.

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A random special election in California
is irrelevant to what 2014 will look like. We've seen countless special elections where Democrats have won Republican seats (or vice versa) only for that to change during the general.

Particularly when the relevant chamber has barely convened
This election is probably better considered the last 2012 election than the first 2014 one.

Still, it's nice to hear good news in California.  Not a lot of that recently.

24, Conservatarian Republican CA-12
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
It certainly won't correlate 100%
A strong Democratic performance, however, may indicate Democrats will carry through strength for 2014 since they frequently don't do as well except in the general.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
it can help
if we use the other specials as evidence as well.  Remember 2008? Childers on his own may not have been a trend, but there were other specials too.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Communitarian, Civic Nationalist, Democrat, Francophile.

I'll become a conservative when America becomes a meritocracy

[ Parent ]
Nielsen leads 65%-35%. That's 87k votes. The November primary had 378k.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Now 67%-33%
127k votes.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]

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