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Afternoon Roundup for January 9, 2013

by: James_Nola

Wed Jan 09, 2013 at 16:55:28 PM EST

VA-Gov: Quinnipiac finds a slightly different result that PPP, which had McAuliffe up 5 yesterday. Q-Pac finds McAuliffe and Cuccinelli essentially tied, with T-Mac up 40-39. Similarly to PPP, they find LG Bill Bolling, if he ran as an independent, taking from both candidates, with 13% while Cuccinelli and McAuliffe tie at 34%.

MN-Sen: Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R) won't be returning for a rematch with Sen. Al Franken after their razor tight 2008 race.

NC-Sen: House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) publicly acknowledged his interest in a Senate bid, but says he won't have a decision until June. Tillis has the potential to partially self-fund. Other potential candidates are Senate President Phil Berger and former Ambassador and businessman James Cain.

IL-Gov: Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford (R) is being less than coy about his Gubernatorial ambitions. When asked about his political future and a Gubernatorial bid, Rutherford replied "I think they are one in the same."

Dems 2016: Politico looks at potential litmus tests for Democrats in 2016, and it looks like the party is going to take an even further leap to the left. Candidates who aren't staunch supporters of gay rights, gun control, and opponents of capital punishment may run in to trouble.

MN-GOP: Former state Rep. Keith Downey, who lost a competitive race in a swingy Senate seat in November, is running for chair of the MN GOP. Downey has a reputation as a strong fundraiser, which is exactly what the broke and dysfunctional MN GOP needs right now.  

James_Nola :: Afternoon Roundup for January 9, 2013
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did Rutherford mean one AND the same?

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Communitarian, Civic Nationalist, Democrat, Francophile.

I'll become a conservative when America becomes a meritocracy

Cassidy Making Moves
He's speaking at events in Metairie and Slidell this week, two very Republican areas in Scalise's district. Both are key to him vote votes and $$$.

Male, LA-01
Scott Walker '16

the jungle primary will help I think
I tend to think we need to keep Jeff Landry out. Is Cassidy the second best get? Jindal is obviously not interested.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Best realistic get
Jindal is best, but that isn't happening.  

Male, LA-01
Scott Walker '16

[ Parent ]
Not sure I agree about Jindal
If Jindal somehow got cornered into running, I'd be really worried that he'd run a really uninspired campaign against Landrieu, who's still quite popular. I'd rather have a candidate run who really wants the seat (Cassidy) and who will campaign like a madman over a nominee who clearly does not want to be a Senator and who would probably operate as if his popularity alone would elect him. Jindal's quite popular but so is Landrieu, and she should not be underestimated.

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
Underestimate Mary, which is something I fear the NRSC may just do. She was never supposed to win in 1996 or 2002; she did (allegedly). However, if Jindal did run, I don't see him running a lackluster campaign. He will fight tooth and nail for it. His sheer distaste for Mary Landrieu would assure that  

Male, LA-01
Scott Walker '16

[ Parent ]
Supposedly meeting with local officials and power brokers. Looks like he's gearing up to announce with lots of endorsements to scare Fleming into waiting for 2016.  

Male, LA-01
Scott Walker '16

[ Parent ]
Gaming out IL-Sen if Durbin is appointed
If Durbin leaves, Quinn is going to have this thing that's bleeping golden. The question of who he gives it to is a pretty thorny one though.

Option 1. Placeholder - The easiest one, and probably the one Durbin favors as it would leave the seat warm for Duckworth (who doesn't have enough experience to be a serious appointment candidate.) Jerry Costello might be a decent choice to try and curry favor downstate. Axelrod could be an interesting placeholder choice, as could Richard Daley. Otherwise easy ones would be a random Durbin staffer or low-profile Obama aide.

Option 2. Neutralize - The obvious name here is Bill Daley to get him out of the Gubernatorial primary. Lisa Madigan would also qualify but odds are she won't want it.

Option 3. Pander - Play for some key primary constituency. The big name here is Valerie Jarett to get some O love. Other possible choices in this category would be Gutierez, Danny Davis, or a downstater like State Sen. Dave Koehler.

Option 4. Play it straight - i.e. choose an obvious "next in line" type. The one that jumps out is Preckwinkle, but that would be a step down in power for her so she may not want it. Other next-in-liners would be Schakowsky and Quigley.

R - MD-7

Durbin is (was) a downstater
I wonder if that will factor in at all, or if IL Dems have basically written off downstate anyway.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Fearless Leader Jan for Senate
I'd be thrilled if everyone's favorite card carrying party member replaced Dick Durbin in the US Senate seeing as she'd be the perfect candidate for Bob Dold or another competent suburban moderate Republican to tee off at statewide. Can you imagine Jan Schakowsky campaigning outside of Oak Park, the city, and Evanston?

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
With ticket-splitters on the decline, Schakowsky would win by virtue of her party affiliation
Uber-liberal Tammy Baldwin won in competitive Wisconsin. She only ran two pts behind Obama. If Schakowsky ran two pts behind the top of the ticket, she'd win in a landslide.

Dold would beat Schakowsky in a midterm. However, he'd be the underdog in a presidential year. IL-10 is now about as Democratic as the state. If Dold couldn't dispatch Schneider in his own CD, how could he take down Schakowsky in a statewide election? Voters wouldn't know the true Bob Dold; most of them would think he's a generic R. That's why even if she runs, Republicans will field a B-tier candidate at best.

Ryan/Kasich 2016

[ Parent ]
Difference in tone
Schakowsky is as bold as any bold progressive could ever be, her husband has serious ethics issues, and she's not afraid to just spew leftist dribble whenever there's a camera in her face. She's also not a nice person, unlike the ever friendly Baldwin, and can't come off as reasonable as Baldwin learned to come off as statewide. It's also worth noting that Erid Hovde would probably have defeated Baldwin. Tommy Thompson just completely ran out of steam right after the primary and did almost no campaigning for the general until it was too late.

IL-Sen with Dold in 2014 would be worth a shot if Durbin were appointed to some post or if he were to retire for some reason, and Schakowsky be the best possible potential candidate (from our electoral point of view) of the entire Congressional delegation. Rush, Gutierrez, or Davis would surely be worse but none of them would run or have a shot at being appointed.

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
Color me skeptical
People seem to forget Carol Moseley Braun, who dined with foreign dictators and had the FEC on her tail, lost in a nail biter to Peter Fitzgerald. Even the most incompetent, corrupt, left-wing Democrat is all but guaranteed 47 percent in deep-blue Illinois.

25, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at

[ Parent ]
Fitzgerald was not exactly a strong candidate himself

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
'98 Was a fairly good Democrat year nationally though nt

24, Conservatarian Republican CA-12
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
a lot of people are bolting the Senate
This must be the youngest Senate in a while in terms of seniority. Some of the lifers have died and the rest keep getting plucked for cabinet appointments, even for low level departments like labor.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Healthcare Exec and ex-Wellsley City Councilor Joseph Avellone (D) is running. It's not clear how much of a factor he'll be.

R - MD-7

It's a town, so it has Board of Selectmen

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Rumors that Blanche Lincoln
might be in the running for Agriculture Secretary should Tom Vilsack resign.  

Harper Polling

First State poll.

I think DKE David goes a little too far with the criticisms, but I have to agree, 1 day samples and some of the questions asked made me raise an eyebrow.

And yes PPP's silly questions have me raising eyebrows as well.  At least they've been around a while and have a track record.

34/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

I think Rasmussen has shown the dangers of one day samples.

In terms of the questions, I really find the convenience store question to be bizarre.  in most of the state those chains don't overlap.  Asking if people prefer Target or Walmart / Lowes or Home Depot would be far more interesting.

Their geographic breakdowns make no sense at all.

29, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]

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