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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Political Roundup for January 11, 2013

by: James_Nola

Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


President

Polling: PPP's national poll shows that only one person can block Hillary Clinton's path to the White House: NJ Gov. Chris Christie, who is in a dead heat with Clinton, trailing 42-44. Remarkably, Christie's net favorability is greater than Clinton, at 51-23 (+28) to Clinton's 54-39 (+15). Clinton leads all other Republicans: Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio 51-37 and Paul Ryan 53-39. In a Democratic primary, Clinton takes 57% in a 9-way contest. Without Clinton, VP Joe Biden leads with a whopping 16%. Without Clinton or Biden, Andrew Cuomo leads Elizabeth Warren 19-16. For the Republicans, Rubio leads Ryan and Huckabee 21-16-15, with Bush and Christie tied at 14%.

Senate

New Jersey: A second poll shows that Sen. Frank Lautenberg would be a serious underdog in a Democratic primary to Newark Mayor Cory Booker. After PPP showed Booker crushing the incumbent, a Fairleigh Dickinson Poll has Booker up 42-20.  

West Virginia: Rep. David McKinley says he is still considering a Senate bid, and will continue to watch Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's votes before deciding. He says he "likes what he is seeing" as of now, but says "If she is not going to be that fiscal hawk that is going to make sure that we get our spending under control, then we'll find another candidate." This is quite the hypocritical statement, as Capito voted for the Ryan budget, while McKinley was one of four Reps to vote against it (and 1 of 2 to vote against it from the left)

Massachusetts: Former Rep. Barney Frank, who has literally been begging for the Senate appointment, has endorsed Rep. Ed Markey for the Democratic nomination. One major Democrat, however, isn't joining the Ed Markey train: Gov. Deval Patrick, who says "I like the idea of a primary. I've talked to a number of potential candidates. I don't think that the field is complete yet."

Louisiana: Rep. Bill Cassidy, regarding as the strongest and most likely opponent for Sen. Mary Landrieu, ventured outside of his district Wednesday night, into Slidell and Metairie, very conservative areas that make up the heart of the 1st district. These areas are key for votes and money. He was also spotted meeting with power brokers in Jefferson Parish, the second largest in the state and a key parish to beating Landrieu. Jefferson has voted Republican for President the last few cycles, but it voted for Landrieu in 2008.

House

SC-01: State Rep. Andy Patrick (R) of Beaufort County is running in the special election. He has ties to Rick Santorum, having provided security for his campaign and already hiring the firm headed by Santorum's former campaign manager, Mike Biundo. Patrick has previously served as a New York state trooper and Secret Service agent.

IL-03: Conservative Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski, who is pro-life and voted against ObamaCare because of its funding for abortions, is being mentioned as a possible appointee as Ambassador to the Holy See. This would open up his seat to a special election. In 2008, it gave 58% to Obama. In 2012, he dropped to 56%. Probably out of reach for us, but in a special with low Hispanic turnout and a strong blue-collar Republican candidate, it's possible.

States

New Jersey Gov: Rep. Bill Pascrell, who Democrats were oddly talking up as a potential Gov candidate, says he has no intention of running for Governor. I'm sure Christie's 78% approval rating in a poll by Kean University/NJ Speaks did not bear in his decision.

Virginia Gov: I really am starting to have a bad feeling about this one. Virginia AG/presumptive Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli is telling conservative activists they should "go to jail" fighting the individual mandate. Ken, slow down. Win this year, and then you can start riling up conservatives for 2016.

Ohio Gov: Add another name to the list of Democrats considering a run for OH-Gov: former Rep. Betty Sutton, who says she is "seriously considering it"

Nebraska Gov: Three term AG and failed Senate candidate Jon Bruning won't run for Governor.

Florida Gov: If you have the time, this 7 page profile of Republican Independent Democratic (likely) Gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist is well worth a read. It paints a picture of Crist as even slimier and opportunistic than we already knew him to be.

NY State Senate: Several weeks after a judge certified Republican George Amedore as the winner in SD 46 by 37 votes, a state appellate court has ruled 99 more ballots must be counted. 90 of these ballots come from Democratic Ulster County, giving Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk a chance at overcoming her minuscule deficit.  

James_Nola :: Political Roundup for January 11, 2013
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Cuccinelli '16?
I have never heard his name come up on even a presidential long list.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Cory Booker '92
http://www.politico.com/story/...

"While hate is a four-letter word I never would have admitted to, the sentiment clandestinely pervaded my every interaction with homosexuals," Booker wrote in the April, 8, 1992 edition of the Stanford Daily.

Interesting. I wonder if he gets Hageled.

27, R, PA-07.


Not likely
1992 is pretty far back.  That said, the gay rights community seems the most enragable bunch out there by pretty much anything.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
He has to have been about 20 at the time
I am sure he can say "well like many Americans, my views have been refined on the issue" or whatever. But certainly this doesn't help him.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I can't see this being damaging
He was writing about how he overcame homophobia.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Rumors
I don't see this as being damaging to him, especially since there's a lot of rumors about his private / personal life.

Please understand I am not making accusations or pointing fingers, just mentioning what's on the ground in NJ.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
WV-SEN
Sen Jay Rockefeller D-WV to "formally announce his future plans" in 11am newser in Charleston, West Virginia

26, Male, R, NY-10

Rockefeller retiring
Likely R with Capito.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
FP it


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Likely R? No way
Although toss-up/tilt R may be reasonable. You forget how much local  Democrats are loved in Virginia. A lot of this depends on who steps up for the WV-GOP. Also, there is a non-insignificant chance that Moore-Capito gets the Mike Castle treatment.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
By whom?
She's immensely popular locally among Ds and Rs alike.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
WV has a closed primary
So popularity with the D side isn't worth much there.

Republican voter registration by congressional district:

1. 128148
2. 131292
3. 93546

So technically she starts with the biggest chunk of voters. Out of Rahall's 93k, 15k of those are in Putnam County.
 

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
ugh ignore that last
I got the wrong county. Mason County has about 6k Republicans.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
We're not talking about a rookie here
We're talking about a longtime experienced immensely popular congresswoman who's last misstep was?

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I assume you mean West Virginia and the WV-Dems?
Still, it's hard to to say that this moves the rating about a notch and a half to the GOP, no matter where you had the rating yesterday...

[ Parent ]
Capito is pro-choice and also disliked by the Club for Growth on economic issues.
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

Also, she has one of the more moderate overall voting records for the House.

Her DW Nominate Score (http://www.voteview.com/HOUSE_SORT112.HTM) puts her as the 15th most liberal Republican in the House!  

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
It absolutely moves the needle significantly towards the GOP
I have it going from Likely D to Toss-up which is a huge shift. But to say its all of a sudden a likely or safe Republican seat is absurd, considering we don't know who the Democratic candidate will be. Natalie Tennant vs. Shelley Moore-Capito is certainly not a Likely R race.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
And it may be Natalie Tennant vs. John Raese
I really think Capito is quite vulnerable in a primary.

She may face the same fate as Betty Ireland.

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
I mentioned that above
Although I referred to it as the Mike Castle treatment.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
How did you have it as Likely D
When Rockefeller was trailing in every single poll?

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
There has been 1 poll done in the last year
And it was by a company I had lever heard of. And we all know that early polling for races can be bizarre, and Rockefeller has a long history of blowout elections. And the Democratic Party is so incredibly dominant in West Virginia that they retained an open senate seat in 2010 of all years.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
PPP was the other pollster
To show the same thing.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
in summer 2011...
Democrats were essentially persona non grata nationally  from late 2009, to the end of 2011. I want to see a new poll of this race for sure though. It has definitely been underpolled.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
You're really going to use Manchin's 2010 victory over a gad-fly to justify a toss-up rating with Capito in 2014?
Manchin had to shoot the cap and trade bill to beat John Raese in 2010, and Manchin's the most popular politician in WV. Also Mike Oliverio, who's virtually a Manchin clone, lost WV-01 to David McKinley, so it was clearly Manchin's personal likeability that pulled him across the finish line. Given the way the Obama administration is likely to conduct itself on guns, environmental issues and the like, any Democrat left of Manchin is going to be DOA in 2014. Tenant is an undifferentiated liberal Democrat, and more pro-choice and less fiscally conservative than Capito, so no contest. The only Democrat who even remotely scares me for 2014 is Tomblin, or another conservadem in the Manchin mold.

As for Capito, if the conservatives in WV couldn't find someone to primary her in her house seat--ever--what makes anyone think they'll find someone who can do it here? McKinley is actually less of a fis-con than Capito, and Maloney probably won't run to avoid John Raesing himself. It's going to be a Kirk scenario, not a Castle. I'm putting this one at lean R unless some great conservadem hope comes riding to Democrats' rescue. Of course, I would have said lean/likely R if Rockefeller staying in, given his "coal is dead" comments, so this isn't a net move toward the GOP IMO.

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
You can call Tennant an "undifferentiated liberal" if you'd like.
But she did win 2-1 when Obama got destroyed in the same ballot. So the voters have already decided that Tennant != Obama at the ballotbox. Lean R is reasonable I suppose, because the Democratic field is unsettled and Republicans landed the big recruit. You have to Remember that West Virginia is full of Democrats up and down the ballot. They just don't like Obama, as evidenced by his drubbing in November while Democrats, including the aforementioned Tennant, swept down ballot, mostly by large margins.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
And issues that cause anti Obama votes are relevant to a SOS race
How?
I think in general this is the most overrated office; folks win it on personal campaign attributes and bring little to the table in relevant background for a Senate race; unlike AG where they've addressed hot button issues relevant in federal politics  

[ Parent ]
Wow, Seriously?
Tossup to Lean R. (But I think just about all of us were expecting this anyway; that's why I've had it at Lean R all along.) Capito is more popular than anyone but Manchin, and has the lean of the state and Obama working for her, but Democrats still have a decent bench. That seems like the definition of a Lean R race to me.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Agree
Lean R is appropriate.  We have a strong Republican candidate against no Democratic candidate, but the Democrats have a decent bench.  The problem will be to see if the Democrats differentiated themselves enough from Obama. Not necessarily easy if you are coming from an obscure office like Secretary of State.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
excellent
Capito scared him off I think.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Doubtful
I think he likely made his mind up before hand.  It is possible he was leaning retirement and she sealed the deal, but I highly doubt she was the sole reason.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Rouzer wants a rematch
http://projects.newsobserver.c...

Republican David Rouzer is looking at another run at U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre's seat in the 7th Congressional District. Rouzer lost by 650 votes in a prolonged recount in November, the closest race in the nation, he said. McIntyre was the only Democrat to win a highly contested seat that received national attention.

Eh, the guy needs to take a hike.

27, R, PA-07.


I don't think so
In all honesty, Rouzer did better than I expected. I don't know why everyone thought McIntyre was DOA as he did a far better job than anyone separating himself from the D brand. Losing to a D that voted for Obamacare repeal by less than 1000 votes, in a conservadem-heavy district, is still not all that bad.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
EMILY's List endorses NY mayor Christine Quinn
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Booker creates Senate Campaign Committee
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

NY State Senate- SD46: Not so fast
After the appellate court ruling Amedore appelled and the State's highest court told BOE to wait on opening ballots:
http://www.timesunion.com/loca...

Also keep in mind that 53 of the 99 ballots were cast by election inspectors in Ulster County. In NYS election inspectors are appointed by local party officials. Not sure if these are all Democrat election inspectors or a mix of Republican and Democrat appointed inspectors who were given erroneous voting instructions while they were working. For Tkaczyk to catch up she needs all 99 ballots to have voted in Senate election (which is unlikely) and she will have to win 69 to 30.  If she wins 68 to 31 its a tie! The key is the composition of those election inspectors If there are Republican inspector ballots there then I think it will be VERY hard for her to win even if all of the erroneously cast ballots are counted.


Rep. Gingrey: Akin partly right
http://thehill.com/blogs/healt...

He's an OBY-GYN, but dear lord ... hasn't he learnt anything?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


Idiot
thankfully he's ruled out a Senate run.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
OK..
So, he's saying that Akin's "partly right" because a rush of adrenaline can stop a woman from ovulating. Well, what happens to the egg that's been released if a woman is ovulating? Oh, right, "the horse has already left the barn" as Gingrey puts it. So, I guess Akin's not even "partly right" after all, is he?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
What he was partly right about
That a woman who is stressed out, including being raped, might not ovulate. Of course the odds of those being the few minutes she's ovulating are long.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
being right doesn't mean much
Either way he's a congressmen. So I don't mind them shooting their mouth off too much.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I agree
Just clarifying

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Well
I already support Gingrey running for higher office, so you need not persuade me.

The odds of the rape taking place (a) within the brief window in which it may prevent an imminent ovulation, and (b) that the resulting stress will in actuality halt an imminent ovulation, and (c) that it therefore prevents a hypothetical impregnation some 12-24 hours after the rape (which is the time it takes the egg to travel down into the uterus after ovulation has already begun, when it's too late to "shut that whole thing down") is so infinitesimal that I cannot imagine it's distinguishable from the whole array of other 'ordinary' factors that can routinely impede impregnation.

So, in my judgment, Akin is not in fact "partly right" to any degree. And, no matter how one dances around the issue, it doesn't change the fact that God intends for 32,000 American women to become pregnant as a result of rape each year.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Abortion and rape
Anyone who mentions these in the same paragraph should be talking about the death penalty for rapists.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
agreed


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Dip(youknowwhat)
The smartest things politicians can say here is nothing. "I am pro-life. I support protecting babies." Period. That's it. Nothing more really needs to be said.

Forget technicalities and other bovine excrement. Akin was wrong anyway. That's why you have some pro-life activists like Rebecca Kiessling argue against the three exceptions for very personal reasons.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
State Sen. Ben Downing (D) is out. http://atr.rollcall.com/massac...

R - MD-7

I'm a bit surprised by that
He had nothing to lose, would have won the west in a walkover, and set himself up nicely for when MA-01 opens up.

[ Parent ]
is Massachusetts that 'regional' of a state?
Compared to most states I always figured it wasn't.  

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
More so the farther you get from Boston
It's most prominent in Western Mass and Worcester.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It is and it isn't
If you're in the greater Boston area it really doesn't matter. But Central Mass, Western Mass, and to a lesser extent the Cape all tend to rally around their candidates. Western Mass is ignored by the state's media so much that Downing could easily have tapped a nerve and won the 3 smaller counties out there while getting 15% statewide.

[ Parent ]
Senator Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota)
will be next to retire. I'm going to bet my house on that one.

Minnesota House district 5B
State representative Tom Anzelc has prostate cancer. For those of you who have followed me for a while, you understand why this case in particular hits very close to home on a personal level. Get better Tom, we're rooting for you.

http://www.duluthnewstribune.c...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Surprise!
MBM Leaving Palm Springs, won't seek office again. I know this is a shocking development. http://www.mydesert.com/articl...

R - MD-7

SC-1- Former Treasurer Thomas Ravenel Considering Entering
Ravenel?
What is with this race attracting all the SC screwups?  

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
Charleston has alot of ego's
The only thing to say for him is that he could self fund 1mil if he'd like.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
SC-1 Sanford Looking At Campaign Headquarters Space
This building is down the street from where I grew and belongs to a family member.
http://www.postandcourier.com/...

SC1-Charleston

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