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13 District MI - R Map - 8R, 4D, 1Swing

by: Republican Michigander

Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 16:54:06 PM EST


Note that Michigan's APOL standards are much less strict with federal districts due to all districts needing to be exactly equal. I stretched APOL a little bit, but didn't want to go "Pennsylvania" or "2002 Georgia" with this.

Part of this is isn't just the top/bottom numbers, but matchups. I also did some population guesswork based on trends.

Rmap1

rmap2

rmap3

rmap4

Republican Michigander :: 13 District MI - R Map - 8R, 4D, 1Swing
Blue - MI-01 - Benishek - 92.7% White, 49.4% Obama 08 - Swing/tilt R. This district is similar to the current one, but I had to give it some conservadem areas or risk Dave Camp's seat further (to a Terry Brown or Barcia type). I took out Benzie and Manistee Counties, as well as Leelanau County. Those three I'm uneasy about long term. Joel or Dale Sheltrown could give Benishek a real tough race, so I'm not calling this safe or even lean. I over populated by 250. That's pushing it with the UP population drop, although NW Michigan is gaining.

Green - MI-02 - Huizenga - 83.9% White, 49.4% McCain. Safe R. This is similar to the current district, but I took out Holland and the SW most part of Ottawa County (Park Twp) to give to Upton. I underpopulated by 1500. Muskegon and Lake Counties are dem, with Manistee leaning that way, but Ottawa County can take them all on.

DarkMagenta - MI-03 - Amash - 80.2% White, 49.3% Obama 09. Lean R. I almost have this as safe after Pestka's failed run at Amash. Underpopulated by 4100. Very similar to the current district except Kentwood is split between this and the 2nd.

Red - MI-04 - Camp - 91.5% White, 49.7% Obama. I'm a little uneasy about this, so I'll go with lean R. Camp picks up the very independent thumb, and conservadem rural Bay County. Mt Pleasant's becoming more and more blue with CMU, but Camp's popular there. Probably safe for Camp, but we'll see. Underpopulated by 4500.

Gold - MI-05 - Daniel Kildee - 69.4% White, 19.2% Black. 68.4% Obama Safe dem. Kildee keeps Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. He picks up Lansing and East Lansing and Shiawassee County. It's a kind of ugly district, but so was Dale Kildee's 1990's era district. Overpopulated by 5500 due to Flint's drop.

Teal - MI-06 - Fred Upton - 81.8% White, 52.7% Obama. Lean R for Upton. Same as the old district except I gave Upton a little more of Ottawa County. Underpopulated by 8000 due to Allegan's growth.  

Darkgray - MI-07 - Tim Walberg - 89.4% White, 50.6% Obama (08), Lean R. Overpopulated by 3700. Walberg had an easy go last time but could have a tough race against a strong Monroe/Lenawee dem. Picks up rural Ingham County, and part of rural Calhoun county (not Battle Creek). Eaton's getting tougher, but Monroe County is getting somewhat easier.

SlateBlue - MI-08 - Mike Rogers - 86.8% White, 49.5% McCain. Safe R. Underpopulated by 11,000. Drops Lansing/East Lansing and Ingham County. Picks up Lapeer and part of St Clair County, Southern Genesee County, and Pontiac. Pontiac is bad, but Lansing/East Lansing combined has many more people. Northern Oakland outvotes Pontiac on its own most years.

Black - MI-09 - John Dingell/Successor - 77% White, 10.2% Black. 66.5% Obama. Similar to the current district except that Dingell gets Garden City and Melvindale. Overpopulated by 1400. Safe D.

Deeppink - MI-10 - Candice Miller, Sander Levin - 86.5% White, 50% Obama. Lean R.  In order to crack a blue sink, I had to split Sandy Levin's district several ways. Miller drops her thumb, liberates the Grosse Pointes from Peters, Picks up competitive St Clair Shores and Fraser, the good part of Clinton Twp, Keeps North Macomb, and takes Troy, Madison Heights, and the most dem part of Royal Oak (Levin's home). I think Miller wouldn't have problems here. Underpopulated by 4300.

Chartreuse - MI-11 - Kerry Bentivolio, Gary Peters, Mike Kowall, or many others - 82.8% White, 50.5% Obama (08). Lean R. With Rogers and Bentivolio living so close together, it make this district challenging. He keeps the new 11th portion of Wayne County and West Oakland, and cuts across dem strongholds West Bloomfield and Auburn Hills, and the other (Republican) Bloomfields. Birmingham's a liberal R area. Clawson swings. Rochester is solid R. Part of Royal Oak is here as well, but most of the real tough spots are in the other district. This isn't easy, but should stay ours with no Farmington Hills or Pontiac. Underpopulated by 2100.

Cornflower Blue - MI-12 - Open - 52.1% (50.8% VAP) Black, 35.7% White. 80.8% Obama Overpopulated by 11,750.
This district covers Detroit's East Side, SW Side, River Rouge, Ecorse, and Harper Woods in Wayne County. In Macomb, it takes Warren, Roseville, Eastpointe, Mt Clemens, and the Eastern part of Clinton Twp from Levin. One of the major cracks in Levin's district.

DarkSalmon - MI-13 - John Conyers - 53.4% (51.6%) Black, 39.7% White. 79.9% Obama. Overpopulated by 13,850. This district covers Detroit's West Side, Redford, Romulus, Westland, part of Dearborn Heights, and Wayne in Wayne County. In Oakland it covers Southfield, Farmington, Farmington Hills, Oak Park, Royal Oak Twp, Ferndale, Huntington Woods, Hazel Park, Pleasant Ridge, and Berkley - a mix of black majority areas and the most liberal white portions of the state outside of Ann Arbor.  

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i came up with something similar
The map pretty much draws itself really. I connected MI-08 into Wayne County and placed a whole district inside Oakland County. I think the population loss will be enough to put Pontiac into a black district.

27, R, PA-07.

Luckily, Oakland County is not an S5 preclearance jurisdiction
If it was, Pontiac would pretty much have to remain in a black district, even if you could get the two VRA seats over 50% without it. Then again, S5 may be a thing of the past come 2021.

[ Parent ]
Too many county splits
You can't have a loop of districts A,B,C where each pair splits a county.  (4,5,8, for instance)

Splits
I don't think there is a prohibition on county splits, but a prohibition on two districts sharing more than one county split.  The only place I think this is a problem is the 4th and 5th.  The splits in metro Detroit are necessary to preserve two VRA seats.

Come 2030 I think it might be impossible to draw two VRA seats in Michigan.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Must have "minimal" county splits
Absent VRA considerations.  This means that you can't have a loop of splits, because that can be reduced by at least one.

See the full discussion on the Election Atlas:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FOR...


[ Parent ]
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