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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers

Q2 Fundraising


Political Roundup for January 15th, 2013

by: Daniel Surman

Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Senate

Nebraska: Former Senator Bob Kerrey (D) moved from New York to Nebraska to run for his old job in the Senate. Now we find Kerrey's return home was short-lived; he is taking a job in San Francisco with a higher education outfit.

Kentucky: We noted Senator Rand Paul's 19-year-old son was charged with public intoxication recently. Apparently, the son was also charged with assaulting a female flight attendant.

Arkansas: An update on the chances of Reps. Steve Womack or Tom Cotton (R) running against Senator Mark Pryor (D) this cycle.

Womack’s chief of staff, Beau Walker, said in an email that the congressman was focused on his job “and not yet thinking of anything beyond that.” Insiders aren’t sure whether Womack has genuine interest in giving up his safe House seat, and many expect him to forgo a Senate run. “I know Tom Cotton is being heavily recruited now,” the plugged-in Arkansas Republican said. “He is reluctant because he just got to the House. But, at the end of the day, he has answered the call of duty before, and I think he’ll answer it again.” Cotton’s chief of staff, Doug Coutts, said he had no comment on the Senate bid speculation.


Georgia: Wedged at the end of a recent interview with Senator Saxby Chambliss (R):

“This is an eight-year decision for me. It’s two years [campaigning] plus six years” in office, he said. “And if I thought the next eight years were going to be filled with contentious debates and the wrong way to govern that we have just gone through in the last two months, it would have a significant impact on my decision. But yeah, right now my plans are to run.”

The important part, as Jim Galloway notes, is the qualifier: he has decided to run "right now."

Governor

Idaho: Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is considering a gubernatorial bid in 2014.

"Right now, my number one priority is doing something about immigration," Labrador told me Friday. "And it will help me -- seeing how things are in Washington. Whether we can get something done or not is going to be instrumental in helping me make my decision. It's going to be one of the keys. And I know people don't believe me -- they think I've already made a decision -- but it's not something I wake up every morning and think about. I know other people do, for some reason."

Governor Butch Otter (R) has previously said he plans to run for re-election. Lt. Gov. Brad Little is speculated to run if Otter does step aside in the end (while a third term for Otter would be legal, it would not be customary). Labrador may do well with a pivot from Congress. The sophomore is currently engaged in a very public battle with his fellow veteran Rep. from Idaho, Mike Simpson (R), after his vote against Speaker Boehner.

New Jersey
: Former Governor and State Senator Dick Codey (D) is travelling to Washington to solicit funds for a gubernatorial bid. Apparently Codey wants to line up $20 million in commitments before officially entering the race. Of course, State Senator Barbara Buono (D) is already in the race, and she is working to capitalize on her early organizing with local Democrats.

Virginia: White House party crasher and all-around wealthy weirdo Tareq Salahi is finally giving up the idea of winning the GOP nod to run for Governor... and instead gathering petitions to run as an independent.

House

SC-01
: Jenny Sanford, former First Lady of South Carolina, has confirmed that she will not run for Congress in the upcoming special election, meaning there will only be one Sanford, her ex-husband, in the race.

IL-02: An internal poll of the special election Democratic primary from State Senator Toi Hutchinson by Normington Petts has former Rep. Debbie Halvorsen at 16%, Hutchinson at 12%, Robin Kelly 8%, Napoleon Harris 7%, Anthony Beale 7%, and former Rep. Mel Reynolds 5%. Of course, Halvorsen ran a full-fledged Democratic primary campaign in this seat last cycle, so one might have expected her to perform stronger. Instead, over 40% of voters in the sample are undecided (with all of the usual caveats about this being an internal poll)

Miscellaneous

AK-leg
: State Rep. Lindsey Holmes is switching from the Democratic Party to the GOP. The switch gives the GOP a 30-10 super majority in the House.

KS-leg: Outgoing State Senator Jean Schodorf switched her party affiliation from Republican to Democrat shortly her successor, Michael O'Donnell, took office. The conservative O'Donnell successfully primaried Schodorf, one of a number of moderates defeated in State Senate primaries last cycle.

TX-leg: A handy, one-stop resource to locate potential conflicts of interest among Texas state legislators from the excellent data team at the Texas Tribune.

More Texas: George P. Bush raised $1.3 million in just eight weeks as he looks toward a run for statewide office, likely the open Land Commissioner seat. Among the donors are the prominent Bushes- Jeb, George W, and George HW.

Daniel Surman :: Political Roundup for January 15th, 2013
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Here comes NY redistricting reform?
http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...

But in agreeing to the maps, Cuomo did win a caveat. The New York State Legislature must approve a constitutional amendment to embrace independent redistricting by the end of January or a second law will automatically create an independent commission to draw the maps in 2022.

To amend the constitution, lawmakers from two consecutive legislatures must approve identical bills. Then, the amendment goes to the public for an up or down vote.

If the Assembly and Senate meet this month's deadlines, the amendment would be on the ballot in 2014. If voters reject the amendment, the independent commission will not be formed.

Hmm, maybe NY Republicans have an out. If the commission is voted down like Ohio, does the second automatic law still kick in?

27, R, PA-07.


Chambliss
Wow, that's a giant retirement red flag there... anything short of a yes is usually a no in this game. I'm upgrading him to 50-50 on my retirement watchlist.

R - MD-7

weekend open thread
when asked to predict the next three retirements, I said Lautenberg, Chambliss, and Collins in that order. Sounds like I may be 2/3 so far.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I narrowly think Collins sticks it out.
Not only is the pressure from McConnell going to be intense--up to and including giving her whatever she wants--but there's something to be said for being the "most prominent moderate" and all that. I do think your other two guesses are good ones.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
AR-Sen
That quote from Womack's CoS sounds more like "Asps, very dangerous. You go first!" (Salwa in Raiders of the Last Ark, for those of you who aren't "of an age") than a real predition of Cotton's intentions.

I'd be shocked if Cotton runs, not for fear of losing and being "out", but a real sense that one just doesn't DO that.

Marco Rubio 2016, please


wonder if Coffman jumps to Senate
nt

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
CO-06
CO-06 is only D+1. I think he can beat Romanoff in CO-06, especially in a midterm.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
well right
But if you're stuck in a competitive race you might as well go for the big one.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Coffman barely won this year.
And next time Hickenlooper will be at the top of the ticket.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
There is
NO such thing as coattails in such races. NO such thing.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I wasn't arguing coattails per se
Moreso that there is unlikely to be weak Dem turnout overall.  

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Beg pardon?
Let's get something straight. "Coattails" do not happen because Joe Six Pack sees "D" next to his candidate at the top of the ticket and decides, "hey, I should vote D for my entire ticket." Coattails happen because the candidate at the top of the ticket is exciting and gets more of his or her voters to show up at the polls than otherwise would.

Whether Coffman wins or loses in 2014 will have nothing to do with Hickenlooper. Romanoff is a great candidate, potentially, and Coffman will certainly have a challenge. That said, I think Democrats will always have a better chance in this district in presidential years when minority turnout is higher.


[ Parent ]
Has anyone done research?
The conventional wisdom is that people vote for the top of the ticket and decide they like that party better this tim or have committed to that party with their top of the ticket vote and feel obligated to vote for them down ballot. I never like conventional wisdom that hasn't been proven.

I think the committed to the party idea may have some validity in a President's first election, but it clearly has less in a re-election. Thus, you get the oddity that Ronald Reagan's vote can go up 4% and the Republican congressional vote goes down.

I think there is truth to the idea that you get the top of the ticket getting more voters from his own party out. There are party voters who don't come out if it's not a Presidential election and, likewise, if there's no senate or gubernatorial election. Hence off year elections get no one. Actually I'm curious if there's greater drop-off in ballots in a mid-term if there's none of these. I know Montana, Virginia, and New Jersey had no top of the ticket races in 2010.

The question is how the swing voter at the top of the ticket votes down ballot. Some will vote for the congressman they like or against one they don't. Some will leave state assembly blank. What about others?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
it's still an offyear electorate
CO-06 is about as Democratic as the state as a whole. Take your shot or you have to deal with Romanoffs for the entire decade.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It would be a marquee race
District fundamentals favor Coffman in a midterm, as Aurora (home to a burgeoning Hispanic community) will likely have low turnout. However, that cushion could be too tenuous to push Coffman over the edge. The Republican has several flaws: he is too conservative for an even district, prone to embarrassing gaffes, and still an untested campaigner (one successful cycle doesn't prove much). On the contrary, Romanoff appeals to moderates and has a knack for campaigning (he garnered 46 percent against Bennett in the primary. Given that he had momentum in the final weeks, he likely would have won Iif the primary was just a month later).

Coffman would still be the favorite. However, given that the DCCC will be hampered by a paucity of realistic pick-up opportunities, this will be a race to watch if Romanoff chooses to jump in.

Ryan/Kasich 2016


[ Parent ]
Duncan, Napolitano, Vilsack all staying
So that makes six in addition to Holder, Sebielius, & Shinseki. With 3 nominees and 2 vacant posts, that leaves 4 without clarity of intentions - Salazar, LaHood, Donovan, and Chu (who is assumed to be on the way out).  

R - MD-7

I think
Salazar, LaHood and Chu are gone, Donovan stays.

Isn't Blanche Lincoln mentioned to replace Salazar?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
LaHood's fate might depend on Hagel's
Traditionally there's one off-party member of the Cabinet. Then again, it's not like Republicans and Independents are going to perceive Obama as more bipartisan because Ray LaHood is in the Cabinet.

[ Parent ]
The reasons you should have an opposition party member
You want one to provide a different point of view. That's obviously not Obama's purpose. When he asked Judd Gregg to join the cabinet, Gregg refused when he realized Obama didn't want a different viewpoint. Neither LaHood nor Hagel has a different viewpoint than the President. So not only aren't they getting Republican ideas, but neither would tell your average Republican that Obama cares what they think.

You also want a Republican so that you can develop a strong relationship with Republicans on Capitol Hill. LaHood immediately developed an adversarial stance similar to Eric Holder. He's taken a cue from Obama and tried to deride, belittle, and alienate Republicans. Chuck Hagel appears to have few friends on Capitol Hill. Perhaps Obama picked him because he liked the way Hagel treated fellow Republicans with contempt.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Polls
Dem polling firms Anzalone Liszt and Grove Insight are merging.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Eh, maybe their combined efforts will help yield better polls
Neither one of them is any good, so it won't really be earth shattering in the polling biz.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
How did they fare
In 2012?  I don't remember seeing them in the rankings, but I'm sure I just missed them.

Grove especially along with Lake was big in the later days of the campaign.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Rankings don't matter.
None of the polls you get to see are a representative sample of that pollster's work.

[ Parent ]
Did you
see any of their internal work?  Was it good?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I'm not a big fan of any internal pollsters
but yeah, I did get to see some Grove polls. Lake wasn't involved with the campaign.

[ Parent ]
Probably means Markey will skate now
Lynch needed a second liberal in the race to have an opening. He knows he's toast in a one-on-one against Markey.

[ Parent ]
Mark Sanford will officially announce tomorrow
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

NC Senate, PPP: Hagan up, middling approvals
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 36%

6-10 point leads in the matchups. IE roughly where Richard Burr was 4 years prior.

27, R, PA-07.


She leads both Ellmers and McHenry by 6 points
Maybe the NRSC could persuade one of them to run. Maybe Ellmers would be a better candidate since she is from the right side of the state.  

[ Parent ]
Function of name rec
once a candidate becomes well known this should be a pure tossup race, pretty much regardless of where the candidate stands right now. The key thing for this race is to keep the primary field to 2 so we don't have to deal with a runoff.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
PPP FL
We'll have Florida Governor numbers tomorrow...Rick Scott trails 4 Democrats we tested against him.

Rick Scott also trails one of the hypothetical primary challengers we pitted against him.
Who? Jeb? Rubio?

26, Male, R, NY-10


Probably Putnam
nt.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Doubt it
Putnam's name rec isn't that high. I'd guess Jeb.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
meh
Florida is a difficult state for the Democrats to win in an offyear election.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Worse than Corbett
There was some discussion of whether Corbett was worse than Scott, but it appears that has been answered. Corbett was leading or tied with all challengers except Rendell.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Scott's problem is...
...he never really had a base. He was just the guy who was happened to be opposing the Establishment guy in the GOP primary and had the money to fund himself and make himself look like the Tea Party candidate, then he was the guy who was opposing the Democrat in a 2010 electorate and still barely won, especially compared to other 2010 Republican candidates in swing states.

OTOH, Corbett had a base of Republican's who have known him since he was Attorney General. I'm not saying Scott can't win reelection, because after all, the Florida DNC is one of the worst in the nation, but he's starting from a worse place than Corbett.  


[ Parent ]
Agree
Scott's problem from Day 1 has been his complete lack of a base.  He is one of those rare candidates who win without a base.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
MDB or IRL should really primary Scott for governor
Scott is not fit for the state. He's to the far right of the political spectrum, even though the state is near the center.  

[ Parent ]
The center doesn't show up in primaries, though.
Especially in off years. That's the whole reason Scott is Governor now.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
It would have to be someone with ideal conservative credentials. Scott's problem is not that he's too conservative, it's that his biography is toxic and he doesn't have the political skills to make up for it.

The ideal candidate would be Bondi, but she has too much to lose.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
The Paul story makes sense now
No airline is going to have someone arrested for underage drinking when that airline's crew served the underage person the alcohol. When I first saw the story I just assumed he was comically plastered, but this is much more serious.

Rand Paul Revolution
Maybe she insulted Austrian economics while he was on a bender.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Reince supports ME/NE Allocations
I read on Twitter that is supportive of such measures in states like WI, PA etc. but wants the states themselves to decide.

I'm sure there is more to it, but it seems like the RNC might get behind these measures possibly.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Its DC Circles
They lost heavily when Romney lost in terms of jobs, influence, lobbying dues. I interact with many of these people, and they are determined to get a Republican elected if at all possible.

This effort is being made in the states in congruence with promises of potential future patronage and support.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Capito voted yes on Hurricane Sandy relief...
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/201...

Wonder if that will come up in the primary. 179 Republicans voted no, with 49 in favor.

Mainstream Dem.  


Also, will Cooper get a primary?
Over his no vote.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Probably not
WV likes its pork after all.  It might make the CFG more interested in her though.

Also, do you mean Jim Cooper of Nashville?  I can't think of any other Coopers in the House.  He'll be fine--if his constituents didn't primary him by now this won't change anything.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
McKinley voted yes too.
And yes, I meant Jim Cooper.

Also Gary Miller voted no. Has he just given up?

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
Not sure anyone in Nashville or San Bernardino cares
Or that they will care in '14.

[ Parent ]
Maybe in a primary against a liberal opponent.
And for Miller I just assumed he would move left after the election. Would have guessed him as a yes vote.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
after looking over the vote
Observations:

1. Denham might be trying to look more moderate in advance of 2014/2016.  Same with Valadao (I actually don't know anything about his ideology though).  Or was there something that helped out the Central Valley in the Sandy bill?

2. A few very establishment-y nos came from Stivers, Fortenberry, Heck, Kinzinger, Candice Miller, Simpson, Upton, Walden, and Latham (who was also no on the fiscal cliff).

3. Andy Harris once again voted no despite MD being affected by Sandy.  I at least have to admire his sticking to his conscience.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I'm fascinated by votes like this...
Really can tell you alot about internal caucus politics.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
HI-GOV: Abercrombie approval up to 48/44
MI-GOV: Mitchell Research finds Snyder at +7
Good news for him; voters also approve of RTW.

Mitchell was off by 4.5 points in the Presidential election this year and by 6.8 points in the Senate election. PPP was off by 7.8 points in the Senate election and by 3.5 points in the Presidential election Michigan was just a really hard state to poll this year.

http://www.mlive.com/politics/...


As expected
Snyder will fully recover from RTW within a couple months if he hasn't already. These fires burn hot and burn out fast, as Christie, Walker, and Kasich can attest after their significantly bigger episodes.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
So just average the two?


23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
NY Senate approves new gun laws sought by Cuomo
The vote is 43-18. It is bipartisan after all. Co-Majority Leader Skelos also voted for the bill.

http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...


Conservatives downstate don't care about guns
Neither do I.
The only guns in the news are of gangs killing each other.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
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