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Political Roundup for January 17, 2013

by: James_Nola

Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Georgia: Rep. Paul Broun looks like he is making moves to challenge Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the Republican primary. Broun attacked Chambliss for his position on the debt crises and taxes, saying "He seems to want to raise taxes on people, and he also wants to continue spending. So I don't know if he does or not, you'll have to ask him."

Alabama: Sen. Jeff Sessions, 66, says he is running for a 4th term in 2014.


NRCC: The NRCC has released its first list of targets in the 2014 cycle:

Ron Barber (D-Ariz.)
John Barrow (D-Ga.)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.)
Jim Matheson (D-Utah)
Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.)
Collin Peterson (D-Minn.)
Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.).

Peterson and Rahall are more second tier opportunities, but make the list because both are retirement possibilities, as is Barber. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL) and Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D-NH) are notable admissions.

Here is a full list of the NRCC's top 40 targets. It's a pretty extensive list, including relatively safe members like Pete DeFazio (OR-04) and Carolyn McCarthy (NY-04).

FL-18: Speaking of Patrick Murphy, Allen West has ruled out a rematch with him. Former Senate President Mike Haridopolos, who lives just outside the district but repped much of it in the Senate, could run. He has $1.4 million in a federal campaign account from his aborted 2012 Senate campaign.


Florida Gov: PPP finds Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) in serious peril for 2014. Scott has an atrocious 33/57 approval rating, including just 49/38 among Republicans. He trails Democrats Charlie Crist 55-39 (!), Alex Sink 47-40, DWS 44-42, and former Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio 43-49. He narrowly leads current Tampa Mayor Buddy Dyer and Sen. Nan Rich 41/37. In the Dem primary, Crist leads his nearest opponent, Sink, 52-18. For Republicans, Scott would trail Allen West 38/37, but leads Pam Bondi 49-25.

Illinois Gov: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) raised $300k in the last quarter of 2012 and begins the 2014 cycle with $1 million cash on hand. He will need it, if he even runs, as he faces a competitive primary and general. One potential primary challenger, AG Lisa Madigan, has $3.6 million in the bank. Likely Republican candidate, Treasurer Dan Rutherford, has $600k.

Maryland Gov: Blaine Young, chairman of the Frederick County Board of Commissioners and a potential 2014 Republican Gov candidate, exceeded his fundraising goal of $300k for the 4th quarter, raising $450k.

NYC-Mayor: Council Speaker Christine Quinn continues to be a huge favorite to be the city's next mayor, its first LGBT and first female Mayor. She leads 35-11-10-9 over Public Advocate BIll deBlasio, 2009 candidate and former Comptroller Bill Thompson, and current Comptroller John Liu. On the Republican side, former MTA Chief Joe Lhota leads with 23%. He trails all Democrats by large margins.  

James_Nola :: Political Roundup for January 17, 2013
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Peterson is absolutely livid at the lack of a farm bill. He may be pissed off enough to retire over it. Maybe 20% chance.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Wasn't Blaine Young the guy being recruited to run for Bartlett's house seat if he'd been convinced to call it quits?

Running against a MoCo Freshmen congressmen in a off year election in (what I at least view as) a very winnable seat seems a better bet then a statewide run...

Marco Rubio 2016, please

He beat an incumbent by 20
In a district Obama won by 8. Not sure that it will be all that competitive...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
MD-06 is as good as gone. It's also not like MoCo Dems just disappear in midterms like minority Dems often do.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!

[ Parent ]
NRCC targeting OR-04 and OR-05?

Those districts belong to Peter DeFazio and Kurt Schrader and it represents fully half of the Democratic seats from the state.

28, R, PA-07.

It's an NRCC strategy
They poke at districts that are potentially competitive early in a cycle just to see what shakes out. Maybe a retirement. Maybe a good recruit. I'm sure Greg Walden would like to compete in his backyard. He probably hears about it when he goes home.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Both of those districts are winnable by a Republican, particularly as open seats.

Oregon also has the most lop-sidedly Democratic delegation of any state that the Democrats didn't draw the map for, despite not being all that Democratic and actually leaning Republican outside of Portland.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
I still get the feeling when I look at the OR Map
It's more favorable to the Democrats. You could easily draw a Romney district in the Central portion of the Willamette Valley around Salem.

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
While not a Dem Gerrymander the R's got screwed
The State House was split 30-30, slim Dem State Senate, and Dem Gov. last session which gave the Rs a theoretical veto during redistricting, but if there had been a deadlock the Dem Sec. of state would have drawn the map. While not as bad as the legislature maps(where the Rep. lost four seats in 2012)the congressional maps underplay potential republican strength in Oregon.

[ Parent ]
Not until they come open
I don't think Schrader or DeFazio is beatable in all but the most extreme circumstnaces. They're both quite good politicians and they're in purple seats.

The only way I can see DeFazio losing is if Hanna runs and we get something close to a 2010 year. For Schrader I see no path at all to a loss at this point given that he actually walks the walk on moderation.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Not bad, but still not what a Republican needs here. Barring Kittleman reversing course and entering, or some sort of miracle (which also goes by the name of Carson, Ben) this race is just depressing all around.

R - MD-7

Dear lord, please not the esteemed author Mike Haridopolos. That's a recipe for a primary disaster IMO.

Joe Negron seems like the best mainstream R alternative.

R - MD-7

Could Adam Hasner run here?

[ Parent ]
State Sen. Joe Negron is the favorite
to become the state Senate President in the 2016 cycle. He won't run for Congress anytime soon.  

[ Parent ]
State Sen. Julie Rosen (R-Fairmont) is looking at it. I know nothing about her. http://minnesota.publicradio.o...

R - MD-7

Senator Rosen
She is a pretty generic senator that keeps her head down and mouth shut generally. Her big claim to fame was cosponsoring the Vikings stadium bill past year. The stadium had a very strange conglomerate of support, with more Republicans opposition it than supporting it, but without universal Democratic support. Expect the CFG types to attack her over that particular bill. She also hails from a very conservative district along the Iowa border. It remains to be seen if she can win over moderates and independents, as any Democrat not named Amy Klobuchar loses the area 60-40 anyways. Also, being from outstate Minnesota, she will likely get passed over at the convention and/or primary. Outstate politicians just can't overcome metro candidates.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Is she Jewish?
if so she should probably run for senate against Franken, that would at least give us a chance at the "Jewish seat".

[ Parent ]
No idea
With her surname, It's very possible. However I have never seen or heard her referred to as being Jewish, or not being Jewish for that matter.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I really hope Karen Handel runs and if so she announces early. The first serious Republican to announce against Chambliss is going to gain all of the Conservative support, and she'd be a far better candidate than Paul Broun.

From NJ
After privately eyeing his own run, Rep. McKinley, R-W.Va., tells me he plans to support Capito's bid for Rockefeller's WV Senate seat.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

He was not going to get tea party support because he is even more off the fiscal conservative reservation than Capito could ever dream of being.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Great news!
Now lets just hope Raese has the sense not to run  

[ Parent ]
TN-5: DKE looking to primary Jim Cooper
The DKos crowd isn't happy with Cooper over his Sandy Relief Bill vote.  Unless it's Mayor Dean, former Mayor Bredesen, or former Mayor Purcell, it has no chance.

33, R, IN-09

VA-2013: Bolling recruiting full Independent-Republican slate

Sources have told The Virginian-Pilot that Bolling allies have discussed assembling a ticket of Republicans to run as independent candidates alongside him.

That development is another hint Bolling, a Republican, is seriously pondering an independent gubernatorial run.

It's the second suggestive sign regarding Bolling in recent days -- other sources said people were seen gathering signatures on nominating petitions for him last weekend at a Richmond gun show.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."

-- Stanisław Lem

Didn't see this one coming.  So now we might lose not only the Governors' mansion but also the other two statewide offices as well?

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
he's clearly not interested in winning, since if he was he would be trying to get at least 1 Democrat to run with him.

I don't see this getting resolved either.  Bolling is obviously extremely bitter about playing the nice guy in 2009 to avoid a primary only to watch Cuccinelli take the nomination out from under him this year.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
And he should be.
This would have been a much easier race with Bowling.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't compare him (yet) to Crist
Crist was a liberal and deserved what he got. Bolling was pushed out by grassroots for an unelectable jerk.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
An election you didn't know was happening
OK, so did anyone else realize that WI elects its Schools Superintendent on April 2? Tony Evers is the union-backed incumbent and is being challenged by state Rep. Don Pridemore (R).

R - MD-7

The cards appear stacked against Pridemore
Evers is a Teachers' Union puppet. Back in 2009 when he first ran for the office, the Wisconsin Education Association Council pumped around 700 k into his race. For a low turnout race, that's tantamount to an Adelson ad-buy. Evers went on to win 57 percent of the vote against his opponent, Rose Fermandez, a nurse turned union critic. As expected, Evers thanked his big labor buddies by opposing Walker's collective bargaining reform. His dissent was largely symbolic. Nevertheless, big labor will surely return the favor with financial backing for his reelection bid.

Even though a lot has occurred in the Badger State since 2009, the dynamics in this race appear the same from four years ago. And I suspect nobody is happier about that than Tony Evers

Ryan/Kasich 2016

[ Parent ]
Minnesota GOP Faces Rocky Path to Recovery in 2014

Not pretty

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Unless the DFL is seen as overreaching, I don't see a path back to relevance for the MNGOP in 2014. The revised job numbers for November and the new jobs numbers from December were released, and unemployment statewide is 5.5%, and dropping about .1% per month, a much lower unemployment rate than the national average. of 7.8%. With the state Republican Party broke, disorganized, and unpopular, they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat to have success this cycle. It can be done, but I don't really see it in the immediate future unless there is a big misstep on the other side of the isle.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
There was a major national tide in 2010. While it's likely that 2014 will lean Republican, it won't be 2010. That said, Minnesota had some of the biggest GOP gains. Was the party that much better in 2010?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Wasn't that the problem?
I assumed the MNGOP's problems stemmed from being completely unprepared to govern the state when they took over in 2010.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
2010 was pre-Sutton
And Sutton really did screw his party hard core, although he inherited a lot of debt because of the blitz style of the 2010 elections.

But 2010 was not as good for Republicans as you think. The Republican gains were generally by the narrowest of margins, with 9 or 10 races decided by 100 votes or less, all of which were win by Republican challengers. Republicans still lost the statewide total vote for the legislature. The DFL also went 4-0 statewide that cycle. Also, 2011 was probably the worst thing to happen to a political party in a very long time, worse than 2003 for Texas Democrats. Republicans really tarnished their.image by publicly and loudly going after constitutional amendments instead of passing a biannum budget or even feigning interest in working with Dayton. This infuriated the electorate, and soured voters that were once sympathetic to Republican candidates. The party brand has not recovered in the subsequent 2 years, and they don't have the resources to try and reach out to voters at the moment. Right now the party doesn't even know which way its going, although we may have some kind of clue come February. There are two distinct factions fighting for control. There is the Bachmann/Emmer group of dyed-on-the-wool conservatives, and there is the Paulite/Bills libertarians. These two groups loath one another, and there certainly won't be harmony after next months caucuses.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
On MNGOP Coalitions
In general, Emmer and Bills are ideological allies in the MNGOP. The libertarians and Bachmann types have a certain level of strategic alliance going. That is why Quist fought Parry to a standstill in MN-01 at the convention (where he ran a joint slate with Paulites), and why the gay marriage plank under-performed the national Paulite delegate slate by a substantial margin. Paulites have their own internal divisions, here and nationally. In general, your radical verging-on-anarchist types come from the twin cities, while outstate the Paulites are closer to the constitutional conservative type.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
So toured suggesting that the Quist-Parry debacle was because the different factions of the Republican Party are actually harmonious? I honestly can't really make sense of what you are actually getting at in that message.

As for the Paulites, everything I have seen is that they are generally disorganized collectively, but a fervent enough to hold a 50%+1 majority in a caucus type situation. The problem this "majority" has is that they don't have a horse in the race for Party Chairman. If all of these people can't agree on a candidate beforehand, Downey is going to win in a walk.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Different divisions
The Paulites likely won't have a majority in the upcoming chair race. They don't have a candidate to pitch their horse behind, and the energy was for Ron Paul more than anything else (and for some, his son in a few years). Those that are serious about electioneering are starting to melt into the party anyway, and their affiliation with the Paul convention effort is becoming less important as time passes. They have no leader in the electoral world right now in Minnesota. I agree Downey looks to have the big advantage.

Parry was loudly conservative, but his campaign was initially favored by the establishment types. Brodkorb was supposed to be the big engineer of his campaign, but when everything fell apart for him, Parry was left without his operative and floundered. The anti-establishment voice became Quist, whose followers already hate the state GOP infrastructure after losing several times and teamed up with the Paulites who felt shafted by the state GOP at the state convention in 2008.

In general, both Emmer and Bills were willing to buck the party line in the state legislature, and the differences between the two there were not very great practically. On the state level, a Bachmann supporter looks a lot like a Paulite except for a few issues. Nationally the divisions are greater, but even then both groups resent the Norm Coleman type of candidates.

That is your big division more than anything else. Drawing any line is not very neat, but in general you have the type who supported Coleman, Seifert and Hegseth, and then you have the type who supported Emmer and Bills.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Philly Inquirer / Daily News to be liquidated?

Pennsylvania Republicans will celebrate with three days of feasting if the papers are liquidated.

28, Republican, PA-6

Jk. Its editorial page notwithstanding, I actually think the Philadelphia Inquirer is a good paper. If it founders, the Pulitizer Prize-winning publication will be sorely missed in SE PA.

That being said, its editorial page is outrageously partisan. I think many newspaper gave well-reasoned endorsements for Obama in the last election (the Washington Post being one of them). However, the editorial writers over at the Inquirer sounded so petulant and antagonistic that their arguments (which were primarily the Obama campaign's talking points) fell flat.

Ryan/Kasich 2016

[ Parent ]
I doubt
A Philly newspaper is having trouble due to editorials being too Pro-Obama.  In fact I'm 99% sure that it has nothing to do with newspaper troubles.

Newspapers are in trouble not because Conservatives and others possibly see them as biased toward the left, but rather due to horrible business practices and adherence to business models that were dying years ago and not updating them.  Newspapers like Blockbuster took too long to change.  Now many are paying the price.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Today's episode of "When Mass Dems Talk Sports"
Mumbles Menino flubs several Patriots' names during a staged conference call with the mayor of Baltimore in front of the media:

The Mayor did recently suffer a stroke, but this is exactly how coherent he was before his health problems. I doubt he runs for another term this year.

This adds to the pantheon of problems Mass Dems have had identifying sports heroes. Ted Kennedy had "Mike McGwire and Sammy Sooser," John Kerry had "Manny Ortez," Martha Coakley had Curt Schilling the Yankee fan, and Menino has had about half a dozen incidents, all listed in the linked article.

You'd think in a sports-mad state they couldn't possibly be so out of touch.

If there is no tie, it's coming to a close tomorrow with the last 91 votes counted. Amedore up by 35 now.
Amedore needs more than 30.7% if all ballots have votes in the senate race which is unlikely. Tight.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

The key will be the partisan make up of the election inspectors
If its both Dem & Rep election inspectors who cast provisional ballots incorrectly due to erroneous information than there is no way Tkaczyk can catch up. I believe 53 of the outstanding ballots are those election inspectors.

[ Parent ]
we shall see
but as NY state resident I don't think see difference in parties right now and I have given money to hold senate.

[ Parent ]
AZ-01 Candidate

Former US Attorney Diane Humetewa seems like she'd be a great candidate as a Native American in this district. That is, if she'd give up her teaching job

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  

A real Native American law professor!

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!

[ Parent ]
Dennis on Fox

I may have to start watching Fox.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


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