Political Roundup for January 17, 2013

MN-7

Peterson is absolutely livid at the lack of a farm bill. He may be pissed off enough to retire over it. Maybe 20% chance.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 13:30:35 PM UTC

MD-6/Gov

Wasn't Blaine Young the guy being recruited to run for Bartlett's house seat if he'd been convinced to call it quits?

Running against a MoCo Freshmen congressmen in a off year election in (what I at least view as) a very winnable seat seems a better bet then a statewide run...

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by: notpjorourke @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 14:17:16 PM UTC

He beat an incumbent by 20

In a district Obama won by 8. Not sure that it will be all that competitive...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 14:31:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

+1

MD-06 is as good as gone. It's also not like MoCo Dems just disappear in midterms like minority Dems often do.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 14:46:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NRCC targeting OR-04 and OR-05?

http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

Those districts belong to Peter DeFazio and Kurt Schrader and it represents fully half of the Democratic seats from the state.

26, R, PA-01.

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by: krazen1211 @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 15:11:58 PM UTC

It's an NRCC strategy

They poke at districts that are potentially competitive early in a cycle just to see what shakes out. Maybe a retirement. Maybe a good recruit. I'm sure Greg Walden would like to compete in his backyard. He probably hears about it when he goes home.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 15:50:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Both of those districts are winnable by a Republican, particularly as open seats.

Oregon also has the most lop-sidedly Democratic delegation of any state that the Democrats didn't draw the map for, despite not being all that Democratic and actually leaning Republican outside of Portland.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

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by: Greyhound @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:15:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I still get the feeling when I look at the OR Map

It's more favorable to the Democrats. You could easily draw a Romney district in the Central portion of the Willamette Valley around Salem.

R, MA-3

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by: Merrimackman @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:20:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

While not a Dem Gerrymander the R's got screwed

The State House was split 30-30, slim Dem State Senate, and Dem Gov. last session which gave the Rs a theoretical veto during redistricting, but if there had been a deadlock the Dem Sec. of state would have drawn the map. While not as bad as the legislature maps(where the Rep. lost four seats in 2012)the congressional maps underplay potential republican strength in Oregon.

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by: stan @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:36:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not until they come open

I don't think Schrader or DeFazio is beatable in all but the most extreme circumstnaces. They're both quite good politicians and they're in purple seats.

The only way I can see DeFazio losing is if Hanna runs and we get something close to a 2010 year. For Schrader I see no path at all to a loss at this point given that he actually walks the walk on moderation.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:24:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MD-Gov

Not bad, but still not what a Republican needs here. Barring Kittleman reversing course and entering, or some sort of miracle (which also goes by the name of Carson, Ben) this race is just depressing all around.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:27:56 PM UTC

FL-18

Dear lord, please not the esteemed author Mike Haridopolos. That's a recipe for a primary disaster IMO.

Joe Negron seems like the best mainstream R alternative.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:33:39 PM UTC

Could Adam Hasner run here?

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by: izengabe @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:57:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

State Sen. Joe Negron is the favorite

to become the state Senate President in the 2016 cycle. He won't run for Congress anytime soon.  

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by: PHL Rep @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 10:04:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

MN-Gov

State Sen. Julie Rosen (R-Fairmont) is looking at it. I know nothing about her. http://minnesota.publicradio.o...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:40:30 PM UTC

Senator Rosen

She is a pretty generic senator that keeps her head down and mouth shut generally. Her big claim to fame was cosponsoring the Vikings stadium bill past year. The stadium had a very strange conglomerate of support, with more Republicans opposition it than supporting it, but without universal Democratic support. Expect the CFG types to attack her over that particular bill. She also hails from a very conservative district along the Iowa border. It remains to be seen if she can win over moderates and independents, as any Democrat not named Amy Klobuchar loses the area 60-40 anyways. Also, being from outstate Minnesota, she will likely get passed over at the convention and/or primary. Outstate politicians just can't overcome metro candidates.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 18:03:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is she Jewish?

if so she should probably run for senate against Franken, that would at least give us a chance at the "Jewish seat".

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by: ThomasD @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 18:34:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No idea

With her surname, It's very possible. However I have never seen or heard her referred to as being Jewish, or not being Jewish for that matter.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 19:08:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

GA-Sen

I really hope Karen Handel runs and if so she announces early. The first serious Republican to announce against Chambliss is going to gain all of the Conservative support, and she'd be a far better candidate than Paul Broun.

20, Conservative Republican MA-04 College MA-01
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JohnRTapley

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by: JRT1992 @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:45:51 PM UTC

From NJ

After privately eyeing his own run, Rep. McKinley, R-W.Va., tells me he plans to support Capito's bid for Rockefeller's WV Senate seat.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 16:46:46 PM UTC

Excellent

He was not going to get tea party support because he is even more off the fiscal conservative reservation than Capito could ever dream of being.

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 17:03:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great news!

Now lets just hope Raese has the sense not to run  

20, Conservative Republican MA-04 College MA-01
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JohnRTapley

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by: JRT1992 @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 17:09:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TN-5: DKE looking to primary Jim Cooper

The DKos crowd isn't happy with Cooper over his Sandy Relief Bill vote.  Unless it's Mayor Dean, former Mayor Bredesen, or former Mayor Purcell, it has no chance.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

33, R, IN-09

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by: kray @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 17:28:46 PM UTC

VA-2013: Bolling recruiting full Independent-Republican slate

Link: http://hamptonroads.com/2013/0...

Sources have told The Virginian-Pilot that Bolling allies have discussed assembling a ticket of Republicans to run as independent candidates alongside him.

That development is another hint Bolling, a Republican, is seriously pondering an independent gubernatorial run.

It's the second suggestive sign regarding Bolling in recent days -- other sources said people were seen gathering signatures on nominating petitions for him last weekend at a Richmond gun show.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

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by: Setsuna @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 17:30:28 PM UTC

Wow

Didn't see this one coming.  So now we might lose not only the Governors' mansion but also the other two statewide offices as well?

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

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by: Greyhound @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 17:38:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also

he's clearly not interested in winning, since if he was he would be trying to get at least 1 Democrat to run with him.

I don't see this getting resolved either.  Bolling is obviously extremely bitter about playing the nice guy in 2009 to avoid a primary only to watch Cuccinelli take the nomination out from under him this year.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

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by: Greyhound @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 17:42:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And he should be.

This would have been a much easier race with Bowling.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

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by: AJNolte @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 19:03:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't compare him (yet) to Crist

Crist was a liberal and deserved what he got. Bolling was pushed out by grassroots for an unelectable jerk.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 18:00:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

An election you didn't know was happening

OK, so did anyone else realize that WI elects its Schools Superintendent on April 2? Tony Evers is the union-backed incumbent and is being challenged by state Rep. Don Pridemore (R).

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 18:16:09 PM UTC

The cards appear stacked against Pridemore

Evers is a Teachers' Union puppet. Back in 2009 when he first ran for the office, the Wisconsin Education Association Council pumped around 700 k into his race. For a low turnout race, that's tantamount to an Adelson ad-buy. Evers went on to win 57 percent of the vote against his opponent, Rose Fermandez, a nurse turned union critic. As expected, Evers thanked his big labor buddies by opposing Walker's collective bargaining reform. His dissent was largely symbolic. Nevertheless, big labor will surely return the favor with financial backing for his reelection bid.

Even though a lot has occurred in the Badger State since 2009, the dynamics in this race appear the same from four years ago. And I suspect nobody is happier about that than Tony Evers

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by: aynrandrepublican @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 21:43:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Corbett flailing

http://www.politicspa.com/corb...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

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by: shamlet @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 18:31:36 PM UTC

Minnesota GOP Faces Rocky Path to Recovery in 2014

http://www.rollcall.com/news/m...

Not pretty

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 19:34:33 PM UTC

Minnesota

Unless the DFL is seen as overreaching, I don't see a path back to relevance for the MNGOP in 2014. The revised job numbers for November and the new jobs numbers from December were released, and unemployment statewide is 5.5%, and dropping about .1% per month, a much lower unemployment rate than the national average. of 7.8%. With the state Republican Party broke, disorganized, and unpopular, they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat to have success this cycle. It can be done, but I don't really see it in the immediate future unless there is a big misstep on the other side of the isle.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 20:56:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2010

There was a major national tide in 2010. While it's likely that 2014 will lean Republican, it won't be 2010. That said, Minnesota had some of the biggest GOP gains. Was the party that much better in 2010?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 21:10:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wasn't that the problem?

I assumed the MNGOP's problems stemmed from being completely unprepared to govern the state when they took over in 2010.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

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by: Greyhound @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 21:13:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2010 was pre-Sutton

And Sutton really did screw his party hard core, although he inherited a lot of debt because of the blitz style of the 2010 elections.

But 2010 was not as good for Republicans as you think. The Republican gains were generally by the narrowest of margins, with 9 or 10 races decided by 100 votes or less, all of which were win by Republican challengers. Republicans still lost the statewide total vote for the legislature. The DFL also went 4-0 statewide that cycle. Also, 2011 was probably the worst thing to happen to a political party in a very long time, worse than 2003 for Texas Democrats. Republicans really tarnished their.image by publicly and loudly going after constitutional amendments instead of passing a biannum budget or even feigning interest in working with Dayton. This infuriated the electorate, and soured voters that were once sympathetic to Republican candidates. The party brand has not recovered in the subsequent 2 years, and they don't have the resources to try and reach out to voters at the moment. Right now the party doesn't even know which way its going, although we may have some kind of clue come February. There are two distinct factions fighting for control. There is the Bachmann/Emmer group of dyed-on-the-wool conservatives, and there is the Paulite/Bills libertarians. These two groups loath one another, and there certainly won't be harmony after next months caucuses.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 21:23:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

On MNGOP Coalitions

In general, Emmer and Bills are ideological allies in the MNGOP. The libertarians and Bachmann types have a certain level of strategic alliance going. That is why Quist fought Parry to a standstill in MN-01 at the convention (where he ran a joint slate with Paulites), and why the gay marriage plank under-performed the national Paulite delegate slate by a substantial margin. Paulites have their own internal divisions, here and nationally. In general, your radical verging-on-anarchist types come from the twin cities, while outstate the Paulites are closer to the constitutional conservative type.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

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by: Daniel Surman @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 21:47:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wait

So toured suggesting that the Quist-Parry debacle was because the different factions of the Republican Party are actually harmonious? I honestly can't really make sense of what you are actually getting at in that message.

As for the Paulites, everything I have seen is that they are generally disorganized collectively, but a fervent enough to hold a 50%+1 majority in a caucus type situation. The problem this "majority" has is that they don't have a horse in the race for Party Chairman. If all of these people can't agree on a candidate beforehand, Downey is going to win in a walk.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 21:56:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Different divisions

The Paulites likely won't have a majority in the upcoming chair race. They don't have a candidate to pitch their horse behind, and the energy was for Ron Paul more than anything else (and for some, his son in a few years). Those that are serious about electioneering are starting to melt into the party anyway, and their affiliation with the Paul convention effort is becoming less important as time passes. They have no leader in the electoral world right now in Minnesota. I agree Downey looks to have the big advantage.

Parry was loudly conservative, but his campaign was initially favored by the establishment types. Brodkorb was supposed to be the big engineer of his campaign, but when everything fell apart for him, Parry was left without his operative and floundered. The anti-establishment voice became Quist, whose followers already hate the state GOP infrastructure after losing several times and teamed up with the Paulites who felt shafted by the state GOP at the state convention in 2008.

In general, both Emmer and Bills were willing to buck the party line in the state legislature, and the differences between the two there were not very great practically. On the state level, a Bachmann supporter looks a lot like a Paulite except for a few issues. Nationally the divisions are greater, but even then both groups resent the Norm Coleman type of candidates.

That is your big division more than anything else. Drawing any line is not very neat, but in general you have the type who supported Coleman, Seifert and Hegseth, and then you have the type who supported Emmer and Bills.


libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

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by: Daniel Surman @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 22:27:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Philly Inquirer / Daily News to be liquidated?

http://www.lehighvalleylive.co...

Pennsylvania Republicans will celebrate with three days of feasting if the papers are liquidated.

27, Republican, PA-6

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by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 21:26:07 PM UTC

Karma?

Jk. Its editorial page notwithstanding, I actually think the Philadelphia Inquirer is a good paper. If it founders, the Pulitizer Prize-winning publication will be sorely missed in SE PA.

That being said, its editorial page is outrageously partisan. I think many newspaper gave well-reasoned endorsements for Obama in the last election (the Washington Post being one of them). However, the editorial writers over at the Inquirer sounded so petulant and antagonistic that their arguments (which were primarily the Obama campaign's talking points) fell flat.

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by: aynrandrepublican @ Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 22:36:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt

A Philly newspaper is having trouble due to editorials being too Pro-Obama.  In fact I'm 99% sure that it has nothing to do with newspaper troubles.

Newspapers are in trouble not because Conservatives and others possibly see them as biased toward the left, but rather due to horrible business practices and adherence to business models that were dying years ago and not updating them.  Newspapers like Blockbuster took too long to change.  Now many are paying the price.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

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by: Tekzilla @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 00:38:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Today's episode of "When Mass Dems Talk Sports"

Mumbles Menino flubs several Patriots' names during a staged conference call with the mayor of Baltimore in front of the media: http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/...

The Mayor did recently suffer a stroke, but this is exactly how coherent he was before his health problems. I doubt he runs for another term this year.

This adds to the pantheon of problems Mass Dems have had identifying sports heroes. Ted Kennedy had "Mike McGwire and Sammy Sooser," John Kerry had "Manny Ortez," Martha Coakley had Curt Schilling the Yankee fan, and Menino has had about half a dozen incidents, all listed in the linked article.

You'd think in a sports-mad state they couldn't possibly be so out of touch.

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by: BostonPatriot @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 00:34:15 AM UTC

NY-SD-46

If there is no tie, it's coming to a close tomorrow with the last 91 votes counted. Amedore up by 35 now.
Amedore needs more than 30.7% if all ballots have votes in the senate race which is unlikely. Tight.
http://hudsonvalley.ynn.com/co...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

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by: MosheM @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 01:10:23 AM UTC

The key will be the partisan make up of the election inspectors

If its both Dem & Rep election inspectors who cast provisional ballots incorrectly due to erroneous information than there is no way Tkaczyk can catch up. I believe 53 of the outstanding ballots are those election inspectors.

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by: izengabe @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 02:46:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

we shall see

but as NY state resident I don't think see difference in parties right now and I have given money to hold senate.

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by: DLD @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 03:51:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ-01 Candidate

http://apps.law.asu.edu/Apps/F...

Former US Attorney Diane Humetewa seems like she'd be a great candidate as a Native American in this district. That is, if she'd give up her teaching job

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

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by: James_Nola @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 01:35:14 AM UTC

Heh

A real Native American law professor!

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

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by: RockRibbedR @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 03:20:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dennis on Fox

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I may have to start watching Fox.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 03:00:15 AM UTC