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Evening Political Roundup for January 18, 2013

by: shamlet

Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 16:00:00 PM EST


A surprisingly big day of news today...

Congress:

AR-Sen: LG Mark Darr (R), whose name had been connected with possible runs for Governor and Senate, as well as a potential AR-3 bid had Womack left the seat, is surprisingly looking more like a Senate than a Gubernatorial candidate. So far we just have rumblings from sources, but Darr doesn't deny them - so it looks like he's in. Darr is a decent candidate but does not have a very high profile, so I'd guess the odds are around 50-50 that another Republican enters the primary field.

MA-Sen: Count another name cleared from the D field in favor of Markey. Rabbi Jonah Pesner, who had explored a Senate bid, is not running.

SC-1: Looks like there will be a Colbert for Congress after all. Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Stephen Colbert's sister, is running as a Democrat. Despite her famous last name, she is not expected to be a factor in the heavily Republican seat. She may not even win the primary here, as businessman Martin Skelly is also in on the D side, and has loaned himself $250K.

GA-12: Some group I've never heard of is "attacking" John Barrow for being pro-gun in a rural, pro-gun district.

States:

MA-Gov: In the second LG-related surprise of the day, LG Tim Murray (D) will not run. Murray was initially seen as Patrick's heir apparent due to his strong base in Central Mass and his position as LG. But Murray's life in the political fast lane came to a crashing halt after he crashed his car under suspiscious circumstances in November 2011 and became extremely evasive surrounding the crash. Later allegations of a close relationship with an overpaid housing official in Chelsea have damaged his credibility further. At this point, it's very unlikely he would have won a general (or even a seriously contested primary) so this is best seen as bowing to the inevitable.

TX-Gov: San Antonio mayor Julian Castro, Democrats' strongest potential candidate, won't run. Castro, like any TX Democrat, would need a perfect storm to win this race so it's not too surprising he would opt out.

NY-SD-46: After counting less than 100 additional ballots, Cecilia Tkaczyk (D-Duanesburg) has reversed George Amedore (R-Rotterdam)'s lead in this race, claiming a 19-vote victory. This outcome means... well, very little, because 6 Democrats have formed a coalition with Republicans. What this mostly means is that the leader of 5 of those six, Jeff Klein (ID-Morris Park, Bronx), gets more influence, since his votes are necessary to preserve the majority. New York is about to experience a radically different form of government... instead of three men in a room, it will be (gasp) four men in a room!

VA-LD-74: State Rep. Joe Morrisey (D-Richmond) brandished an AK-47 on the house floor. Legislators are allowed to bring guns into the capitol.

WATN: Former New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin (D) has been indicted on bribery charges.

shamlet :: Evening Political Roundup for January 18, 2013
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Evening Political Roundup for January 18, 2013 | 39 comments
Cotton vs Darr: Who would benefit?
Pryor
The last thing the GOP needs is a bloody primary.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Womack should run
He will leave a safe Republican seat and he could be competitive in the general election. I don't like the idea of a one-term Representative running for Senate.  
[ Parent ]
AR-SEN: Darr not totally committed yet
The SD46 race in New York is very very important
Because the Dem won the seat, the Dems will have the numerical majority to pass progressive legislations. If Amedore won, the GOP would have 32 votes (including Felder). But since he lost, the progressives (including the IDC) will have 32 votes, compared to 31 for the center-right state Senators.  
There's some RINOs in the NY Senate caucus
At the New York state level the only thing other than keeping power until 2021 the NY Senate Republicans stand for is disagreeing with New York City.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Agree. The IDC Coalition with the Reps is a Cuomo Rubber Stamp
The rushed passage of Cuomo's gun control legislation (which a majority of NY State Senate Reps actually opposed)shows that the IDC-Rep coalition exists to be a Cuomo rubber stamp. Rep leader Skelos and IDC leader Klein will get their marching orders from Cuomo, who has swung to the left this year, if you look at his legislative agenda.  The primary concern of many NY State Senate Reps is keeping their seats and their legislative perks; they won't stand up to Cuomo. Amedore's loss deprives the Rep Conference of a majority in the State Senate, and that makes it even less likely Skelos will oppose the  Cuomo agenda.
[ Parent ]
Cuomo's agenda
It is still better than the Senate Democrats agenda.

NY-24
[ Parent ]
Talk about faint praise
The thing with Cuomo is he's basically a Rockefeller Republican, but every so often, say once a year, he'll throw one big slab of red meat to social progressives. Labor still completely distrusts the man.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
How much does Cuomo's agenda differ from a Standard liberal Dem agenda?
Besides his (recently passed) strict gun control law, Cuomo wants gov't funding of statewide elections, a big $1.50 hike in the state minimum wage, major modification of NYC Police Commissioner Kelly's "stop and frisk" policy,strengthening of abortion rights laws and apparently such strict regulation of hydraulic fracking that it will be very difficult to engage in the practice (although in theory it will allowed).  This is not a "centrist agenda" but a liberal Dem agenda; Cuomo has swung to the left and this agenda is really not that different from what NY Dems in the state legislature would want.  On a personal level there are some items of his agenda I like and others I don't, but I don't see how the Repub-IDC Coalition is bringing about a really different legislative outcome than if the IDC linked up with the other Dems in the State Senate. Repub leader Skelos seems content to rubber stamp Cuomo's agenda with the IDC and hope that the Gov throws him a little crumb or two.  Skelos may be forced eventually to act differently if the Repub base makes enough noise, but that remains to be seen.    
[ Parent ]
Mandates, Mandates, Mandates
That's the be all and end all of government in New York. Senate Dems basically build their agenda around punishing non-renters.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Cuomo is a liberal Democrat not a centirst!
If a Democrat Governor of any other state had Cuomo's record everyone would call him a leftist. But apparently in NY raising taxes, passing gay marriage, stopping fracking and banning guns doesnt make you a liberal in NY. Because Cuomo simply had the common sense to not completely hand over the state budget to the NYS muni unions he's considered a centrist? NY doesnt have the same left/right Dem/GOP divide of other states. Its only because NY has Democrats who are so crooked and insane and Republicans who are crooked and RINOs that Cuomo looks like a moderate. He's the 1 eyed man in the blind world of Albany politics and everyone looking in from afar is calling him eagle eyes.
[ Parent ]
I actually think Cuomo does want fracking
He just doesn't have the votes in the Senate. (I'm looking at you, Greg Ball-types.)

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Agree
The evidence points to Cuomo wanting fracking.  Bringing in Rendell to sing the praises of fracking made that clear.

The problem is that fracking is opposed by the Republicans and Democrats outside of the New York metro area in sufficient numbers to combine with the progressives in the New York area to slow it down.  It just further highlights how rural New York is going the way of Vermont and is becoming a lot less like rural Pennsylvania.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Funny... Begich describes himself as moderate
"What you have in the Democratic Caucus - probably more so now than the Republican [Conference] - you have a sizable amount of moderates," Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), up for reelection in 2014, told POLITICO. "We are kind of practical, let's get things done, we're willing to try some new stuff. But we're not going to do the same ol', same ol'. I think that's a struggle with the administration at times."

Read between the lines.

http://www.politico.com/story/...

Castro is not running statewide
http://www.kens5.com/news/Juli...

Some politicos have predicted Texas could be a majority Democratic state in as soon as 10 years time. Speculation of San Antonio's Mayor Julian Castro running for governor in 2014 has added fuel to Texas turning blue.

Yawn.

26, R, PA-01.



Texas is fools gold for Democrats
If there is a red state that may become.competitive in the next decade, I believe it to be Georgia, not Texas or Arizona.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Thank you!!
If RRH had a like button, I would have liked that post. :-)  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Democrat's don't seem to understand just how Republican Texas is.  I remember calculating that they need to get 2.5-3X the number of Hispanics to the polls (so essentially a 45-50% Hispanic electorate) to carry the state with Obama's numbers.  To flip the state, the Democrats really need to either cut down the Republican's 50-ish point margin with Texas Whites, or start winning South Texas with the kind of margins they win the South Bronx or East LA.

Georgia, like North Carolina and Virginia, is getting a significant influx of the sort of White Liberal professionals that form the core of the modern Democratic party.  They're way more reliable than Hispanics are at the ballot box.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Whites
I agree. Minorities can't grow fast enough to win elections if you're losing Whites 76%-23%. The Arizona lesson is that you can increase the percentage of minorities in the electorate, but if you go from getting 39% of Whites to 32% you're going to lose.

White progressives don't tend to be as mobile as others. The prospect of moving from New York City, a progressive paradise, to Texas is so unappealing that they might pass on a job opportunity.

On the other hand, working class and suburban Whites do tend to move and do exist in Texas and Georgia. If Democrats could translate how they appeal to them in Wisconsin to the South, they could contend.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Don't think so
GOP has maintained a steady 75-80% of whites in GA. The change is that southern African Americans are moving to metro Atlanta from small towns.

GOP is losing its margins among whites in VA and especially NC. If GA becomes a swing state, it will be because the GOP can't effectively win elections when the electorate is 40/45/50% African American.

[ Parent ]
Also
whereas there's some hope for the GOP to win the Hispanic vote, there's virtually no hope to win the AA vote. The Hispanic vote has moved 30 points in both directions since Reagan. Democrats always win it, but the GOP has won 44% of it before (2004). The AA vote is only 1/3 as volatile. Thus, a 50% Hispanic electorate might resemble a 35% or 40% AA electorate with Obama numbers, the former electorate wouldn't be certain doom for the GOP, whereas the latter would be, because the latter electorate would be far less volatile.  
[ Parent ]
Stephen Colbert's sister files for SC-01
http://www.politico.com/story/...

Well, we have our first Democrat.

26, R, PA-01.



FL-Gov: Meek, other Ds trying to draft Manny Diaz
http://news.yahoo.com/democrat...

Tough to see how Crist doesn't face some sort of primary. If both Crist and Diaz run, I'm sure a real Democrat will also enter and try to run up the score with liberals.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

NJ-5
I've been combing through New Jersey counties for precinct numbers. I've found the votes in some, but not others. Precinct numbers are available in Bergen and Sussex counties, which make up roughly 85% of the NJ-5 vote. Obama won the Bergen portion of this district 134,885-116,236, while losing Sussex 27,022-17,120. Passaic and Warren should skew heavily Romney but it might not be enough for him to win the district. The district could be R+2, a drop from R+5 in 2008.

The state went from D+4 to D+7. So this makes sense. Still, it's not a district I anticipated that could be competitive. Democrats didn't go hard after Garrett and he won by 12. They did go hard after Runyan, whose district was likely D+1 in 2012, and they lost by 9 there. Democrats may concentrate on New Jersey more in the future.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

some or most of that change
Looks to just be the Redistricting.  NJ-5 had to pick up some pretty D towns because of the merging of NJ-8 and 9, and lost some of the Republican parts of Sussex, Passaic, and Warren.  So the fact that it probably took those changes just to keep NJ-5 on trend with the state as a whole suggests that the area actually swung less in real terms.

The district is very polarized though, as even the Republicans in Bergen are fairly moderate and not like Rep. Garrett.  But as long as there are still enough Conservatives voting in the R primaries in "Mountain Men" land, he'll probably be okay.  And if the Dems could only come within 12 in an Obama year, he's probably okay in the General as well.

[ Parent ]
Garrett won the Bergen portion of his district
110k to 102k. Of the new portion Garrett got roughly 14k to the Democrats 33k. Garrett actually got 45% in Fair Lawn.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Garrett
That sounds good.  Garrett is one of the few solid conservatives in Congress from the northeast, so we need to keep him there.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX
[ Parent ]
Bill Clinton to Democrats: Don't trivialize gun culture
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/...

"Do not patronize the passionate supporters of your opponents by looking down your nose at them," Clinton said.

I've never heard a Democrat say this. Patronizing and looking down on their opponents is at the top of the Democratic playbook.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Bill Clinton learned that the hard way
The Assault Weapons ban was a big deal in the south and key in the 1994 elections there.

Then again, the Democrats have all but abandoned culturally conservative whites, so it's not as big of a problem for them as it used to be.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
2010 says otherwise
Democrats spent the whole cycle patronizing and looking down on White voters expressing unhappiness with them.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Only the short ones
I'm taller than average so I kind of have no choice. It'd be rude if I simply pretend they're not there, even when I want to.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
That's from someone who HATES us
As part of the "gun culture", Clinton is still bitter about taking the house in 94 because of people like us. We also were a big reason in taking Gore down (West Va and Ark) in 2000.

Clinton learned the hard way. Obama will learn the hard way as well.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Ashley Judd still considering run
http://www.politico.com/story/...

Democrats do win in Kentucky, but has a progressive every won anything? Won't she get creamed?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

I still can't fathom her actually running
Her acting career's been pretty sluggish lately (she's kind of a one-hit wonder anyway, with "Double Jeopardy"), so I'm tempted to believe she's just liking the attention. Unless she's pro-gun and pro-life, which she ain't, she probably won't have a prayer here. I could actually see McConnell vulnerable against a well-funded Blue Dog, but I just don't see it happening. Judd's probably right in line with Lizzy Warren.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Chandler Missed his shot in 2008
Given how well Lunsford, a C-lister did in 2008, I can't help but think Chandler might have had a 50/50 shot at pulling it off in 2008.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Chandler
Would still be a top recruit and would have at least a 20-25% chance unless the environment falls apart quickly.  

What about Elaine Walker, Jody Richards or Mongiardo?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Richards is probably too old
Mongiardo would be a good recruit. He's solidly pro-life and pro-gun and has a base of support in Eastern Kentucky. However, I get the impression that he doesn't play well with others.  

22, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 
[ Parent ]
OMG!
http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Evening Political Roundup for January 18, 2013 | 39 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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