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MI-01 analysis - 2012

by: Republican Michigander

Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 15:14:23 PM EST


Unfortunately, I won't have good precinct results outside of checking every county website until the Secretary of State has it up, but I have a good overview here at least on the Macro Level.

I don't have the exact Mason County split yet, but Romney won the district with about 53.45% of the vote, comparable to Bush's 04 numbers in the slightly more dem (historically) district. Stupak won the old district close to a 2-1 margin, and probably would have done the same here if he didn't retire. Benishek won with 48.14% overall. 1881 votes.

I places counties in three categories. Obama/McDowell Counties (Blue). Romney/Benishek Counties (Red), and Romney/McDowell Counties (purple). There are no Obama/Benishek Counties in 2012.

MI01-A

MI01-b

Republican Michigander :: MI-01 analysis - 2012
While Obama won MI-01 in 08, it was more by default than anything else. Outside of Marquette and possibly parts of Leelanau, Downtown Traverse City itself, maybe parts of Benzie and Manistee Counties, it's not his type of district. McCain quit and announced it, and Bush fatigue was high here and that was that. Romney was popular among seniors which are strong in this district. Seniors in Michigan are not all that republican. A lot of them are independent or conservadem. Gary McDowell was a legitimately pro-gun and pro-life democrat who won a 55-60% Bush district in 2004.  

Romney lost three counties. Gogebic County is still Joe Mack territory and yellow dog. It's basically Superior, Wisconsin in its politics. Marquette is a mix of Northern Michigan University and unions. Manistee County is heavily union and is a swing area that tilts dem.

McDowell's from the Eastern UP which is usually more R, but liked him. Benishek is from Iron County which normally tilts D downticket.

The map is still somewhat misleading which leads to my 2nd map. Romney overperformance compared to Benishek. The "usual" numbers for an R against someone who isn't Stupak downticket is higher than Benishek's, but lower than Romney's. There were some very impressive wins for Benishek and some bad losses hopefully due to McDowell being locally popular.

MI-01B

MI-01c

Romney +10% - Blue
That's largely McDowell's turf. Mackinac (44.62%Ben, 55.70%Rom), Chippewa (41.04% Ben%, 53.19% Rom), and Luce (48.91%Ben, 60.86%Rom) Counties.

Romney 6%-9.9% - Green
Emmet and Cheboygan Counties are part of McDowell's old state rep district. The other parts are a little concerning however. The populist interior of the lower Penninsula needs to be big margins for Benishek to have a good foothold of the district. No Republican should be held to 52% in Otsego County with it's energy economy. The central UP is quite worrysome to a degree with Benishek's home being in Iron County, but he didn't do bad in Dickinson getting 54% there. Romney just did that well up there getting 60%.

Romney 4-5.9% - Yellow

Average to slightly above average drops largely due to downticket base areas. Benishek overall ran 5.3% behind Romney. The two "bad" areas here for Benishek were Charlevoix and Antrim Counties. He underperformed here with 50.91 and 54.78%.

Romney 2-3.9% - Red

This was where there was the smallest difference from the top of the ticket. Alpena and Presque Isle were big wins for Benishek. They lean dem downticket. Leelanau and Grand Traverse Counties are slightly R leaning (less than they used to be) but are not that "tea party" friendly, so minimum dropoff here is good for Benishek. Iron is Benishek's home. Houghton and Keweenaw Counties are usually consistent, as is Gogebic on the dem side.  

I don't think Benishek's out of the woods, but I think the fact that he survived against a McDowell in a non-2010 setting and a target on his back was a show of strength. If Benishek can do it again, he should be okay outside of a wave year. What he needs to work on is what Stupak's top strength is. Constituent issues. That takes time, and Benishek should do better there with experience.

The 2014 cycle here should be quite interesting.

Appendix A - The Numbers:
COUNTY Benishek McDowell COUNTY Romney Obama County %Ben %Rom Diff
01 ALCONA 3,284 2,481 5,942 3,571 2,472 6,104 55.27% 58.50% 3.24%
02 ALGER 2,010 2,325 4,535 2,330 2,212 4,618 44.32% 50.45% 6.13%
04 ALPENA 6,845 6,496 13,820 7,298 6,549 14,014 49.53% 52.08% 2.55%
05 ANTRIM 7,100 5,289 12,961 7,917 5,107 13,195 54.78% 60.00% 5.22%
07 BARAGA 1,628 1,662 3,421 1,866 1,574 3,490 47.59% 53.47% 5.88%
10 BENZIE 4,543 4,665 9,644 5,075 4,685 9,901 47.11% 51.26% 4.15%
15 CHARLEVOIX 7,047 6,187 13,843 8,000 5,939 14,090 50.91% 56.78% 5.87%
16 CHEBOYGAN 6,264 6,226 13,071 7,286 5,831 13,311 47.92% 54.74% 6.81%
17 CHIPPEWA 6,342 8,478 15,455 8,278 7,100 15,564 41.04% 53.19% 12.15%
20 CRAWFORD 3,170 3,044 6,639 3,774 2,994 6,814 47.75% 55.39% 7.64%
21 DELTA 8,150 8,969 17,721 9,534 8,330 18,050 45.99% 52.82% 6.83%
22 DICKINSON 6,836 5,371 12,657 7,688 4,952 12,810 54.01% 60.02% 6.01%
24 EMMET 8,980 7,807 17,451 10,253 7,225 17,709 51.46% 57.90% 6.44%
27 GOGEBIC 3,075 4,099 7,406 3,444 4,058 7,576 41.52% 45.46% 3.94%
28 GD. TRAVERSE 24,009 20,516 46,748 26,534 20,875 47,999 51.36% 55.28% 3.92%
31 HOUGHTON 7,671 6,780 15,054 8,196 6,801 15,282 50.96% 53.63% 2.68%
36 IRON 2,990 2,723 5,944 3,224 2,687 5,988 50.30% 53.84% 3.54%
40 KALKASKA 4,090 3,480 8,096 4,901 3,272 8,299 50.52% 59.06% 8.54%
42 KEWEENAW 724 583 1,357 774 582 1,392 53.35% 55.60% 2.25%
45 LEELANAU 6,847 6,511 13,896 7,483 6,576 14,176 49.27% 52.79% 3.51%
48 LUCE 1,252 1,211 2,560 1,580 991 2,596 48.91% 60.86% 11.96%
49 MACKINAC 2,689 3,157 6,027 3,397 2,652 6,099 44.62% 55.70% 11.08%
51 MANISTEE 5,109 6,347 12,131 5,737 6,473 12,402 42.12% 46.26% 4.14%
52 MARQUETTE 12,006 18,308 31,609 13,606 18,115 32,194 37.98% 42.26% 4.28%
53 MASON 1,867 1,759 3,804 7,580 6,856 14,604 49.08% 51.90% 2.82%
55 MENOMINEE 5,060 5,075 10,431 5,564 5,242 10,923 48.51% 50.94% 2.43%
60 MONTMORENCY 2,501 2,124 4,914 2,928 2,049 5,051 50.90% 57.97% 7.07%
66 ONTONAGON 1,667 1,644 3,460 1,906 1,586 3,539 48.18% 53.86% 5.68%
68 OSCODA 1,980 1,694 3,930 2,308 1,657 4,042 50.38% 57.10% 6.72%
69 OTSEGO 6,122 4,926 11,596 7,011 4,681 11,832 52.79% 59.25% 6.46%
71 PRESQUE ISLE 3,349 3,315 6,966 3,794 3,192 7,080 48.08% 53.59% 5.51%
77 SCHOOLCRAFT 1,853 1,927 3,948 2,142 1,865 4,048 46.94% 52.92% 5.98%
Dan Gary TOTAL
COUNTY Benishek McDowell BY
CODE/NAME REP DEM COUNTY
=============== ============== ============== ==============
Totals 167,060 165,179 347,037 194,979 165,180 364,792 48.14% 53.45% 5.31%
 

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Good Writeup
Thanks.  It looks like this district should trend GOP, but Benishek should not take anything for granted.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

This is *excellent*
Thanks much for making this!

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


I don't have anything to add
but I will agree with the others that this is a very good diary and I appreciated it.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


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