Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

Please read our site Terms of Use.


Mini-Roundup for January 21, 2013

by: shamlet

Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 08:40:02 AM EST


Not much news this inauguration day but still a few notes worth considering:

IL-Sen, WATN: ex-Rep. Joe Walsh (R), who has been looking at a Senate bid, is in talks to host a radio show on Chicago's WIND.

KY-Sen: Tenesseean Ashley Judd was at the Kentucky state Ball this weekend, and maintains she is still testing the waters for a D Senate bid against Mitch McConnell. Recent reports had suggested she was more likely to wait for 2016 to take on Rand Paul.

IL-Gov: AG Lisa Madigan (D) confirms she is considering a bid.

FL-Gov: Democrats are trying to recruit former Miami mayor Manny Diaz (I) to run against Crist in the D primary.

NH-Gov, NH-Sen, NH-2: Former State House Speaker Bill O'Brien (R-Mont Vernon) is apparently considering a possible run for any of these offices. O'Brien would be an okay candidate but not a great one.

NJ-5: 1970s-era Dem Rep. Andrew Maguire (last seen losing his 1980 re-election bid and then the 1982 Senate primary to Lautenberg) has returned to Bergen County from the DC area, and may be exploring a run against Scott Garrett (R).

NV-LD-17: State Rep. Steven Brooks (D-North Las Vegas) is in jail after threatening the state assembly speaker-elect, Marilyn Kirkpatrick (D). Brooks was arrested with a loaded gun after threatening to shoot the speaker. He supported a rival candidate for Speaker and was unhappy at recieving less favorable committee assignments after his candidate lost.

shamlet :: Mini-Roundup for January 21, 2013
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

I hope Crist gets taken out again
Crist needs to lose in the primary and get the Specter treatment.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

I'd give it a coinflip
The establishment Democrats seem to be rallying around him to a certain extent. But it is still possible he loses to a more traditional Democratic candidate.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
eh if we get Rick Scott out
I like our chances.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
If it's Crist v. Scott, Likely D.

Crist v. generic R (or better, like Bondi), toss-up.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
We need to
get our state CFO in there.  He is very popular in Palm Beach County.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
VA State Senate
Republicans are trying to redraw the lines:

http://virginia-senate.granicu...

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY


Makes sense
The VA-sen gerrymander is the whole reason the Democrats won 20 seats last election, and Republicans could pick up a few more under even fair lines.

It does however make them look hypocritical, since the house of delegates is such a strong Republican gerrymander.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
I don't see how it is hypocritical
The Republicans picked up 2 seats in the Senate in 2011 despite a Democrat-friendly gerrymander. Republicans picked up 8 seats in the House of Delegates under their Republican-friendly gerrymander. Sure without the Republican gerrymander they wouldn't have picked up 8 seats, but even "fair" lines wouldn't have cut much into their already solid majority, if at all. If the situation were reversed and it was Democrats who gained 2 seats and control in the Senate under a Republican gerrymander, I doubt they would do any different.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Had they debated it
And passed it 21-20 it would be one thing. They passed it 20-19 in the space of five minutes while a member who thought he was "paired" was off at the inauguration. Basically the real deal breaker here is that no member of any legislative body in the country will ever be able to safely leave the floor or visit a sick relative in the hospital or even go to the bathroom from now on under the precedent set by the Virginia Senate GOP.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
That is no precedent
Are you familiar with what happened after Steve Windom was elected the first Republican Lt. Governor of Alabama in 1998? When the newly elected Alabama Senate convened for the first time, he could not leave the presiding officers chair for a number of hours, knowing that the majority Democrats planned to strip him of his powers for no other reason than he was a Republican. As long as he was there, he was able to keep the changes from being pushed through. But if he left, one of the Democrats would take over as temporary presiding officer and push the changes through. He even had to discreetly urinate in a jug under the table to keep from leaving his post. Finally, he worked out a deal with one Democratic Senator who promised not to force the changes through if he took the chair and the stalemate was broken and he kept his powers.

So as you can see, this is far from any kind of precedent.

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
But that later agreement was better for everyone
And the reason such agreements generally exist is so the Lt. Gov does not have to urinate in a jug. Because thats bad for everyone involved, and incredibly unfair.

What would you think if the Democrats had made that deal, Windom went to the rest room, and then they stripped him of power?

I have no problem if the majority indicates it intends to do this. But I think the assumption is that people will behave according to custom unless they indicate they will not be doing so.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Wow
If this actually happens, It could potentially open the floodgates for Mid-Decade redistricting.

How do they make the case that the Senate map is unfairly drawn when it ends up with an evenly divided Senate, but the other house has a massive R majority in a purple state?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
It passed 20-19.
One Dem Senator is missing, so Bolling is not needed (not sure how he would have voted).  One dem senator is eliminated (I think it is ralph Notham).

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
The missing
Dem senator is at the inauguration.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Thats the killer
And what I think makes this the most disgustingly partisan act of the decade. I think they might have survived doing this with a 20-20 vote with Bolling casting the tie-breaking vote, but instead, they waited until someone was out of the room at the inauguration with the reasonable expectation that at least one member of the GOP caucus would show minimal human decency in this respect(and as a tradition missing members in legislatures are paired - this is a violation of nearly three centuries of Virginia tradition, and about seven centuries of common law tradition).

McDonnell is the real person on the hot seat here. He vetoed the first map, and then hailed this map as a bipartisan compromise. If he signs this, he is doubly damned, first for the hypocrisy of the mid-decade redistricting itself, but secondly for the manner in which it was carried out.

I generally tend to agree with people here that this is inside baseball, but the way it was passed while Marsh was at the inauguration adds a real human interest element to it that I don't see how anyone in good conscience can defend what happened today even if they can defend the merits of redistricting the Virginia State Senate in abstract. And I think McDonnell will have a real problem if he ever wants to run for anything in the future if he signs this.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Missing Senator is irrelevant
If he had been present then it would have been 21-20 instead of 20-19. Its not like the outcome of the vote had any effect by him not present.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Bolling is
trying to run as an indie, and is trying to recruit a whole slate to run as indies.  No guarantee he would have voted on this bill.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
In which case
It should not have passed. It did not have the support of a majority of the chamber. How you feel if the New York Dems redistricted last summer during the Republican National Convention?

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Agree, It shouldn't have passed
It'd be one thing if Republicans had the votes anyway, in which case it would be a somewhat undesirable way to avoid a lot of debate.

But if they didn't have the votes in VA then this is just as bad as Democrats fleeing Wisconsin or Texas in order to avoid giving their legislative chambers a quorum. If we're going to be consistent of our criticisms of legislators who try and subvert the democratic (small d) outcomes of our elections then we need to do so when both parties engage in the shenanigans.  

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  


[ Parent ]
It is
"Pairing" in which a Senator who is present on the opposite side makes a promise to abstain so another Senator can be absent, whether for a wedding, funeral, whatever is a tradition going back to the 14th century, and is the basis of every legislative chamber in this country. One member of that body gave his word as a human being to Marsh that he would not do this, and he broke it. Nineteen other members are complicit in that act. McDonnell if he signs it is also complicit in it.

This is like Reid declaring a vacancy anytime a Republican Senator uses the restroom or is absent for a vote from now on, and ordering a special election. Thats about the moral equivalent of what just happened.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Where
are you seeing that there is "pairing"???

I don't see that anywhere.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY


[ Parent ]
Its implicit in parliamentary rules
Its why you usually see an equal number of abstainers, or about an equal number from each party on house votes. Tradition dictates that the chamber majority does not take advantage of the absence of a member on personal buisness to pass legislation that could not have passed in the event of his or her presence. Otherwise its not safe for any legislators to ever take a day off. If majority legislators do so in closely divided chambers, the minority can show up, declare the chamber in session, and pass legislation.If minority legislators do so this happens.

Because its assumed legislators need to actually have lives, for instance if one of their kids is dying, or they want to attend the inauguration, the assumption is the majority assigned someone to abstain so as to balance Marsh's vote. Now whether this is handled between members(as in some chambers), between whips(as is the case in parliamentary systems) or between majority leaders(as in many US legislatures) is unclear, but this is a major violation of etiquette.

If there is a name involved we will likely hear it in the next few days from Marsh or Saslaw. I will take a step back and say its unclear who broke their word exactly, the Senator in question, or Majority Leader Norment, but someone did, and its a huge precedent breaker.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Virginia Senate Rules Provide for it
http://hodcap.state.va.us/publ...

Rule 36

Though its unclear if its for committee votes or not. Implicitly however it assumes that if a Senator must recluse themselves from a vote for personal reasons, they will announce a "pair" and the paired member with be counted as present.

Rule 36

Pairs upon any question pending may be made and entered upon the Journal, and in such cases shall be announced  immediately upon completion of the roll call, and before the announcement of its  result. Pairs may be general or special. General pairs shall extend to and include  all motions, amendments, or other proceedings in aid of or against the question  pending, and which is the subject of the pairs. Special pairs shall depend in their  scope upon the agreement between the Senators making the same, but in absence  of a specific agreement, the presumption shall be conclusive that the pairs are  general. The Senator announcing a pair shall be counted as present for the  purposes of establishing a quorum.


27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
yes
it may be legal, but it was Marsh's responsibility to find a "pair."  By all accounts, he didn't find anyone.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
If no
pre-made "pairing" arrangement was made, then nobody broke their word, so you were being a bit harsh earlier.  I have not seen anything saying that such an arrangement had existed.  If one particular senator had agreed to "pair" and then broke off the deal, then the senator should be primaried.  I have seen no evidence of this, and Marsh hasn't made any comments.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
If so your right
I want to hear more on that which I suspect we will find. The more I think about it, my guess is that Marsh told Saslaw he was going to be absent, Saslaw mentioned it to Norment/Bolling, and assumed, based on past precedent that meant that he was paired. Instead they took advantage of it.

Ie. I do not honestly Marsh would have gone to the inauguration if he believed legislation was going to be passed 20-19 in his absence, and if he notified the majority leadership of that I still think this was inappropriate on their part even in that case.

If Marsh was aware that roll calls were ongoing, was told no one was going to pair, and went the inauguration anyway, then this is 100% on him. But I have a real issue if he was misled or lied to by Norment or someone else.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
It appears
to me that Marsh was the irresponsible one in this case.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Virginia is not a purple state
In an offyear election. The overall vote was extremely lopsided in 2011.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I don't like it
That's a whole ugly bag of worms. If there was major gamesmanship like Georgia was, I understand, but wasn't Virginia a deal made?  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
The map
was drawn in a manner to make 5 dem held districts more republican.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Okay, on further reflection
This is probably one of the worst things the VA Republican party could have done right now.  Not only is it extremely underhanded and petty, but it feeds right into the narrative that Republicans are trying to usurp political power.

I really hope McDonnell vetoes this.  A majority built on an underhanded gerrymander isn't going to last very long.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
The reason
I'm told that they did this today is because Bolling wasn't on board with this and they needed to wait till a Dem was absent.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Bolling's
spokesman has confirmed my source and said that Bolling was opposed to this and would not have voted in support.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
A majority built on an underhanded gerrymander won't last long?
They got a tie built on a Democratic gerrymander. Even a fair map would have probably given them a majority.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Politics Is Blood Sport
Kudos to VA Republicans for ensuring Republican lines in State Senate for decades to come.

They did nothing wrong.  The Dems shoved Obamacare down our throats I want Republicans in state legislatures to start doing more stuff like this,

Time to play dirty


[ Parent ]
This is a bad precedent
Maybe it's time for Democrats in Minnesota to get busy.
Or maybe Maryland should finally go for the 8-0 in House seats.

That is the logical extension of this sort of action.

23/M/D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04
Favorite Republicans: Lisa Murkowski and Richard Lugar.  


[ Parent ]
Or
maybe the Dems should encourage someone to lie about being an indie to become the tie breaking vote on a redistricting commission...

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Or Maybe we
should re draw some lines in Arizona like I hope happens next.  Next electoral votes by congressional districts in MI, PA, VA, OH, WI be nice  

[ Parent ]
Or Obama can regain the House
By locking 35 Republicans in the WH bathroom after the Ball tonight.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
not unless we lock some Senate Dems up
and then have GOP governors replace them

[ Parent ]
See where this leads?
Elections are not simple some sort of inviolable system. They are accepted because everyone accepts the ground rules. When people make up the rules as they go along, people have no more reason to accept the outcomes than they do accept Ahmadinejad or Mugabe's elections. We are beginning to walk on dangerous ground here, just a very thin and poorly defined line away from power resting on force. If the the temporary absence of one member of a body changes control, can that be manipulated?

Amusingly I was having drinks post-ball with an official in Singapore's Foreign Ministry who thought this was quite well done........  

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Elections in the U.S.
In 1796, Alexander Hamilton tried to game the system to get his party's Vice-Presidential candidate, Thomas Pinckney, elected President over his party's Presidential candidate, John Adams. It backfired and Pinckney didn't become VP. Thomas Jefferson did.

Gaming the system in the U.S. has been going on since the Founding Fathers.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Hamilton Almost Destroyed the Country
He wanted to use his new federal army to march into Virginia in 1798 and depose the state government in Richmond. Had he got his way we would have fought the same sort of chronic Federalist-Regionalist civil wars Argentina went through in the same period

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A...

Instead we are going the way of Venezuela. The Right is making the same mistake as the Venezuelan Right, assuming that they can twist the electoral system out of all respect to fairness and then expect to hide behind the principle of "law" to avoid the consequences. In the process they are wreaking the ability of the political system to handle peaceful transitions.

The US political system is designed to maintain two roughly equal, or at least competitive coalitions. Whenever one side gets close to a permanent monopoly on power, it splits, and dissidents join the opposing party to help restore the equilibrium.

That is what is supposed to be happening now. The GOP's demographic and ideological coalition is a minority, and it needs to merge with Democratic defectors to form a new majority. Instead, a minority is trying to rig the electoral system so they can maintain control for a few more years without making any concessions to anyone.

The real danger here is not that it will work, though it will work for a few years. Instead its that when it fails, a majority will come in not in the form of a temporary transfer of power to a marginal majority, but as an overwhelming majority that has been given partisan coherence by oppression and legal discrimination. When it does, the Right, which has remained relevant not due to any actual voter appeal but due to gerrymandering and legal rigging will rapidly implode the first time its forced to engage in a real political contest leaving a coherent and angry majority facing no organized political opposition of any sort.

Thats precisely the story of Venezuela over the last 14 years. An angry  majority came to power, and rapidly found itself facing no viable political opposition. Rather than splitting however, resentment over the behavior of preceding governments largely prevented defections from the ruling coalition despite deep divisions within it, and the lack of an opposition core that they could work with prevented even those defections that occurred from happening.

My fear is this:

At some point in the 2020s an angry and resentful Democratic voter base will elect  an angry and resentful President and marginal majority in congress which will then override local maps in the states using federal power. In the face of the same sort of maximal legal onslaught they have engaged in, the GOP in states like Virginia where it depends on gerrymandering will cease to exist, and an angry leftist political majority will find itself facing no opposition, and for lack of better options will begin smashing things in an effort to revenge itself for years of wrongdoing.

There oddly enough are already examples of this story. Republicans in Texas behaved much the same way after coming to power a decade later than they should have do to Democratic gerrymandering. Having been kept out so long, they internalized a sense of unity based around political anger and resentment of Democrats.

Majorities should not have to wait until they reach 53-55% to come to power, and they shouldn't have to wait until they have already polled a majority of the vote several times to do so either. If that happens, that majority is unlikely to break, and a cohesive majority can effectively function as a dictatorship against political opposition, especially if thats what unites them.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Maryland
is gerrymandered to high heaven.  You cant go 8-0 in Maryland you already have Baltimore in 7 districts  

[ Parent ]
You certainly can
I saw maps cleaner than the 7-1 that was passed on DKE.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Eastern Shore to Bowie/outer PG (nt)


From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
While I agree to an extent
I don't like leading with my chin. The unions did this twice in Michigan and got KO'ed with a right hook.


Paul Scott recall turned into Joe Graves with Tom McMillin as education chair. Collective bargaining on the ballot turned into Right to Work in lame duck.

Where's the next mid-district redistricting going to be?  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
I feel lost
Did this happen today?  How does DK or DKE not have a thread on it?  This seems like it would be major news no?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Yes
it happened today.  That's why Marsh was at the inauguration.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Romney & Inauguration
The media is making a big deal that Romney is the last losing nominee since Dukakis not to attend the inauguration. Do they not think maybe the reason Dukakis and Romney didn't go is because they weren't sitting members of Congress or incumbents? The losers since Dukakis have been Bush (incumbent Pres), Dole (just-resigned Senator), Gore (incumbent VP), and McCain (current Senator).  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


The Media has a weird desire to see Romney suffer
Since the end of the campaign. Its not even ideological so much as they don't like him personally.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Also Kerry
Incumbent Senator.

Moreover, if my read on Romney is correct, if Obama asked him to attend he probably would have. But--assuming there was no invite--this was a classy move on Obama's part, not forcing Romney out in front of the cameras on what is obviously a sad day for him.


[ Parent ]
California turns corner
Good for those of us out here.

Since February California has created almost 234,000 jobs, more than Texas, Oregon and West Virginia combined. (CBS)


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


What corner?
California has more population than the three combined. We should create more jobs. Maybe you missed that in December California went the other way and shed 17,500 jobs.

http://beaconecon.com/products...

Despite a sluggish economy, I don't think many states are losing jobs right now. I think California is turning a corner all right, but not the one you think.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Just trying to be optimistic I guess.
Not sure why one month is so important. The general trend is positive, let's stick with that.

Especially with the numb-skulls running the state.

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


[ Parent ]
Unemployment
Unemployment numbers in and of themselves don't carry meaning without context. There's a certain point where you will stop shedding jobs even if the government does nothing. Going from negative to positive wasn't an accomplishment for any government. It was simply reaching bottom. Likewise, you're going to gain jobs faster the lower the bottom is.

Mitt Romney was criticized for not growing jobs fast in Massachusetts, but employment was strong when he took office. There wasn't a lot to gain. So gaining jobs wasn't a positive trend for California. The trend was positive based on the rate California was gaining jobs relative to the employment rate.

More people turn 18 every month than retire. So every state should gain jobs every month because the work force continually increases. Even in a sluggish economy. Losing jobs is a really bad sign, even after months of gaining them.

2012 was horrible for me. I don't see any reason to be optimistic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I hAve no idea what your post means/meant
Good luck in 2013!

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
Zoom
http://www.nytimes.com/package...

Thought this was a cool feature, although I have to wonder about some of the seating.  Interesting who got very close to Obama.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


You know you're a hopeless dork
When you zoom in, pan around, and think, "Hey! They didn't label John Boozman!"

[ Parent ]
Also a hopeless dork
They missed Michael McCaul (he's next to CVH).

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
And here is the new senate map:
http://redistricting.dls.virgi...

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

Virginia Senate redistricting before and after
I only posted the median 20 seats. % is McDonnell share of the vote in 2009.

Assuming seats fall in order, prior to this redistricting the Democrats had 19 seats of 55% McDonnell or less. Now they have 13 such seats.

Before:
36 49%
21 52%
39 53%
34 53%
37 54%
6 54%
1 54%
33 55%
29 55%
10 59%
20 60%
17 61%
7 63%
22 64%
13 65%
8 65%
38 66%
12 67%
28 68%
11 69%

After:
25 49%
37 49%
34 54%
24 58%
21 59%
39 60%
33 60%
6 60%
29 62%
20 62%
22 63%
13 64%
19 64%
7 64%
8 65%
15 65%
1 66%
28 67%
3 67%
10 67%

27, R, PA-07.


What happened to 38 (Puckett) in the after scenario?


[ Parent ]
2 pts to the right
Was 67 now 69

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Toddy Puller?
I don't see the 36th on this list, the map looks like with all of Alexandria City out it should be a huge bump to the right....and Toddy Puller wasn't secure before...

Marco Rubio 2016, please

[ Parent ]
I don't believe Puller had any of Alexandria City
She has a very diverse section of Fairfax County south of the city that are considered "Alexandria" for mailing purposes, along with some slightly more conservative territory to the south and west. It looks like they packed her with more minorities in Fairfax and PW this time, although she did pick up the very wealthy and somewhat Republican Fort Hunt/Belle Haven area as well.

[ Parent ]
the 36th is a 53% Deeds district
62% Obama in 2008. It's ironclad.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Who should GOP chose to give counter State of Union?
I personally think the GOP needs to chose someone in DC because they need to give a face to someone trying to counter Obama.  One of the many excellent Governors would not do that?

thoughts? any names?


Might as well go with the guy with a 70 percent approval rating
Christie

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure
he will want to portray himself as an opponent of Obama after all his hard work to position himself as any ally of his.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Rubio
He should use it to lay out the immigration plan.

23/M/D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04
Favorite Republicans: Lisa Murkowski and Richard Lugar.  


[ Parent ]
Christie Cares About Re-Election
in NJ more right now.

I rather see Congressman Sean Duffy and Jamie Butler do it togther.  2 young faces


[ Parent ]
No tag teams
Did you see Olens/Bondi at the convention? Tag-team speeches are awful as anything other than a wedding toast or retirement party.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Not to mention Callista/Newt...


23/M/D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04
Favorite Republicans: Lisa Murkowski and Richard Lugar.  


[ Parent ]
Cruz
He's been working the Chautauqua circuit pretty heavily so far, I would not be surprised if he's prepping.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
What is
the "Chautauqua Circuit"???  Sorry for my ignorance.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
i.e. Talking head circuit
Chautauqua circuit is more-or-less the 19th century equivalent of it... I just get tired of using overplayed terms every once in a while.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
I could see him
But, since Boehner picks the person, I think we'll see someone from the House or someone close to him. Cruz may also not want to risk hurting himself for 2016, like Jindal in 2009. If it is a Senator, I'd imagine Rubio gets it, since immigration will be a big part of Obama's speech. I could see Boehner picking Cotton or another strong freshman (Wagner?), or going safe with a member of leadership or someone close to leadership, like Price, Hensarling, or McMorris-Rodgers. I'd bet on CMC, as the House GOP really seems like it is going to step up female and Hispanic outreach. So, CMC or Rubio, with a chance of Cruz. Martinez and Sandoval are running for re-election and need to look distant from the DC GOP. If it's a white man, I'd expect Cotton or Hensarling.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
CMC?
Claire McCaskill?

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
I suspect he meant CMR
Cathy McMorris Rodgers

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I did
No clue how I messed that up  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
A Case Management Conference was on your mind?

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
The commenter formerly known as TheCallofDuty


[ Parent ]
Analysis of the VA map
http://notlarrysabato.typepad....

Senate districts by McCain numbers http://twitter.com/seantrende

25, Male, R, NY-10


More Great VA map analysis
[ Parent ]
Treasurer
What is it about this post that so many women and Hispanics are appointed to it? We have not had a male Treasurer since Truman and the last 3 have been Hispanic, as well as 6 of the last 10.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


I have wondered the same thing
I don't really know what the position really does, but I've speculated before that it may have started out as a way to appoint a woman or minority to an ostensibly important non-cabinet position in a time when women and minorities weren't often appointed to cabinet positions. But since women and minorities are more often appointed to cabinet positions now, I'm not sure why the Treasurer position still continues to be filled in that way.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
It's not important
All it does is oversee the mint and bureau of engraving and printing. It's just visible because the signature is on the currency.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Identity politics
It's not a post that requires a lot of specialized skill (it's basically a manager for the currency printing system), and it's visible in that the signature is on the currency. It started as a way to say, "hey, we have a woman in the high levels of government!"

It's a dumb tradition and should be stopped.

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
I remember
Marge Roukema refused it after being passed over for FS Chair in '01, because she thought it was pointless.

[ Parent ]
VA Senate
There are 27 districts where McCain got 45% and above (D+1 and above). If the GOP won all these seats in 2015, they will have a supermajority just like in the VA House of Delegates.  

Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox