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GA-Senate: Chambliss to retire

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:18:00 AM EST


Georgia US Senator Saxby Chambliss is expected to announce he will not seek reelection in 2014.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: GA-Senate: Chambliss to retire
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Karen Handel for Senate!
Please, no Mr Price ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

Handel for Senate?
I'm not ready to sign up for that campaign right now this minute, but I do have a favorable opinion of her and I think she would be a good Senator for Georgia if she gets the chance. Over the next few months, I'm sure there will be several possible names mentioned. I doubt that public support will immediately coalesce around any particular one at first.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
We need more women in the U.S. Senate
Karen Handel would be the best candidate for Republicans in Georgia. She has a lot of name recognition from the run-off primary election against Nathan Deal, which she very narrowly lost.  

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
Tom Price
What's wrong with Dr. Price? He's one of the best members of the House.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
I sort of want her to run for governor.
We can do better than Nathan Deal there. As for Price, I thought Paul Brown was the member with major foot-in-mouth disease.

I have to figure just about every Georgia Republican in congress and at least a few row officers are interested...

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
Georgia has runoffs?
I tend to figure an outstate candidate gets in and a metro candidate gets in.

28, R, PA-07.

Run-offs for both primaries and general
A lot of states have run-offs for primary contests.

Georgia also has a 50%+1 requirement in the general election (It was necessary in the 2008 Senate contest.)


[ Parent ]
a runoff should hopefully protect us from Broun then
nt

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
But depending on the composition of the primary field and electorate, he might also have the potential to rally the "outsider"/ tea party base against what is perceived as an establishment insider choice and win over 50%.

I think it would be a mistake to write off Broun as a potential nominee - strange things can happen in party primaries, even run-offs.  


[ Parent ]
TP
If the TP costs us this seat, the GOP will be effectively over.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


who needs to be kept out?
Besides Broun and Gingrey?

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Nobody...
Broun and Gingrey may just stay in the House of Reps.

But even if they did run, they shouldn't have that huge of a problem. Georgia is more conservative than you would think.

But I think the best candidates would be Karen Handel or Tom Price.  

Conservative. (GA-14: Tom Graves)
McDaniel (MS-SEN), Wolf (KS-SEN), Brannon (NC-SEN), Buck (CO-SEN), Bevin (KY-SEN), Fire Graham!, Fire Cornyn!.


[ Parent ]
FWIW
I think Georgia is somewhere between 53.24% and 54.57% conservative, which is less conservative than Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota, but roughly on par with Missouri.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Less flexible though
Whites in those other states will vote for moderate Democrats. Democrats in GA have an easier road to 45 but a much tougher road to 50.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I'm certainly not suggesting that it starts off as anything less than Lean R, but there are credible Democrats that could pull it off if the stars align. Since GOP primary voters in Georgia are ├╝ber-conservative, the chances for an Akin-style fiasco are far from trivial. Meanwhile, all Democrats can do is make sure they have a decent contender in place to capitalize on any opening.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Akin didn't win because of uber-conservatism...
He won because of a clown-car primary. Had there been a run-off in MO, I strongly suspect Steelman or Brunner would have beaten Akin. Georgia does, in fact, have run-offs, so in a one-on-one with an equally conservative Republican (are there even "moderate" Republicans who might run), an Akinlike candidate probably loses.

I certainly wouldn't argue that Democrats shouldn't try to recruit Barrow, but this looks to me more like an Ellsworth than a Donnelly situation in a general election.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
No way on Broun
This made headlines on Wednesday: "Paul Broun: Obama Upholds Soviet Constitution, Not U.S. Constitution"

From 2008:

In an interview with the Associated Press, Broun said, "That's exactly what Hitler did in Nazi Germany and it's exactly what the Soviet Union did. When he's proposing to have a national security force that's answering to him, that is as strong as the U.S. military, he's showing me signs of being Marxist."

This is the opposite of what we need in our Senate candidates. Paul Broun is pretty much an ideal of example of the kind of candidate the NRSC should mobilize resources against.

MA-08  


[ Parent ]
Georga is barely a red state
Romney won Georgia by just an 8-point margin, his second least performing state that he won behind NC. McCain won the state by just 5 points. I don't think it will become a swing state. HOWEVER, Republicans need to be VERY VERY careful. After all, Georgia is the second largest red state in the country, behind Texas. Broun and Gingrey are terrible congressmen who say very stupid things. They are a huge problem. In fact, I would go as far to say that if one of those 2 idiots became the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, they would lose and could turn Georgia into a swing state.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
Be careful when analyzing Georgia.
Remember there's a huge difference between Georgia in a presidential year and Georgia in a mid-term. Presidential numbers are almost meaningless in calculating what the electorate will look like in a mid-term, and I would be very cautious about extrapolating from Obama numbers.

Honestly, Brown or Gingrey could probably win this seat in 2014. Holding it in a presidential year like 2020 would be a different story, and they could actually turn out to be liabilities to the GOP and our image while in office. But could they win the seat in a six-year-itch mid-term? Yes, either one probably could. I'd certainly prefer someone less gaff-prone (equally conservative is probably okay in GA), but let's not be hyperbolic about what bad candidates in a presidential year like 2012 will mean for our chances in a mid-term like 2014.

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
That's true....
Chambliss "wins" by 3% in November 2008, but under 50%.

One month later, in the runoff, he wins by 15%.


[ Parent ]
Yes there is a big electoral gap
In low turnout elections, Republicans perform significantly better in GA. But my point is that it's not worth the risk to nominate someone like Broun or Gingrey. And yes, they COULD win, but it's not worth the risk and the extra resources.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
How?
What possible, credible Democrat is there in 2013/14 who could actually run for this seat and win it? Barring an O'Donnell we'll be fine here, and the ranks of uber-conservative congressmen and state legislators here are so unbelievably large there's no way I could imagine that actually happening.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
John Barrow
Is already being floated as a possible entrant.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Barrow will enter, but the most likely outcome is great for Republicans.
Not only does that give us a free house seat, but he'll still lose to a non-O'Donnell Republican in a mid-term.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
John Barrow?
The Senate may be more appealing to John Barrow than the 12th District.  I believe that Obama did better statewide than in the 12th.  If the wrong GOP is nominated, this could be similar to Joe Donnelly in IN.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
GA is considerably to the right of IN.
I feel fairly confident in saying that a Mourdock-type candidate in GA would have beaten a Donnelly-type candidate in GA in 2012. Given that, Barrow's path to victory looks even more difficult in a mid-term. Were I Barrow, I'd actually try governor instead; no Obama to drag you down.

Certainly, a senate run has got to be more appealing to Barrow than an uphill battle to hold GA-12. I just don't think he can actually win against a non-O'Donnell Republican.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
GA vs. IN vs. MO
Romney in GA: 53.3%
Romney in IN: 54.1%
Romney in MO: 53.8%

I think the GOP has a higher floor in GA than IN (see 2008), but I wouldn't call it considerably to the right of IN.

33, R, IN-09


[ Parent ]
All of the rumored possible contenders have Tea Party Support!
Karen Handel-She was endorsed by Governor Sarah Palin, Erick Erickson, Jan Brewer, and other tea party favorites. She was seen as the grassroots favorite in 2010 against Nathan Deal.

Tom Price-I doubt that he runs if Karen Handel runs considering that he endorsed her for governor against his colleague (Nathan Deal). But tea partiers would like him, even though he has some faults. He's got a good record with the Club for Growth and Freedomworks (95% Lifetime from CfG and 92% from Freedomworks.)

In fact, Freedomworks endorsed Tom Price for Conference Chair: http://www.freedomworks.org/pr...

Paul Broun: He's a clear favorite for the tea party. Scoring high 90s from fiscal conservative groups, favored by libertarians and conservatives alike, he is widely popular with the grassroots.

Tom Graves: Also a favorite of the tea party. He scores high 90s and is known to fight the leadership quite a bit.

So as you can see, all the major contenders are tea party favorites. So the tea party should be able to work with the establishment (if they work with the tea party) to propel any of these contenders to victory.



Conservative. (GA-14: Tom Graves)
McDaniel (MS-SEN), Wolf (KS-SEN), Brannon (NC-SEN), Buck (CO-SEN), Bevin (KY-SEN), Fire Graham!, Fire Cornyn!.


[ Parent ]
Broun
Would lose Akin style by 15 points.
Romney won GA by less than he won MO and IN FYI.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Higher AA turn-out in GA than either MO or IN.
If Democrats can get African-American turn-out in 2014 to 2012 levels, yeah, they might--might--be able to pull Barrow over the finish line.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
I have a hard time seeing how Broun beats Price, Handel, or Graves
All three of them have solid conservative support. Graves in particular would be a huge favorite among the CFG/DeMint:RedState types. We were more likely to end up with Broun if Chambliss stayed in and he was the only challenger.

[ Parent ]
Price has a difficult relationship with Boehner, no?
That might make a senate run more attractive. On Handel, the question is whether she's just ambitious or really wanted to be governor.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Don't underestimate Broun in a Primary
He was widely dismissed to lose his initial primary, and then widely seen as a 1-term wonder destined to lose to a more conventional Republican.  The man has a knack for winning R primary elections.  We need to make sure this is a 1v1 at worst for us.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Here's my "bold" prediction: Jack Kingston will finally take the dive
There is no Isakson that will push him out of the way like in 2003/2004.

He's still waiting for the Ways and Means chairmanship.
He might run, but I think it's more likely that he stays put and finally gets his coveted gavel.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Cross two names out already: Cain and Gingrich


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Are you sure Cain wont reconsider?
He ran for senate before and he would be the Tea Party wildcard in the race.

[ Parent ]
He's done after his disastrous Presidential run.
I can't imagine the tea party would go for him over a Price, Graves or Handel.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
They both declined today


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Handelforsenate.com
Welcome! This domain was recently registered at namecheap.com. The domain owner may currently be creating a great site for this domain. Please check back later!

28, R, PA-07.

My guess is a 3-way Primary between Paul Broun, Tom Price and Karen Handel now


Broun
If the NRSC is serious about preventing Akin or Mourduck style screw-ups, they will coalesce quickly around the best mainstream conservative in the race, and pressure other mainstream contenders out. Handel, Price, Sonny Perdue, all seem like good options and I see no obvious attack points a Broun could bring to bear against them. Particularly Price, an uber-conservative ally of Paul Ryan who has good relationships with the CfG, Heritage, Freedomworks, etc, yet seems blessedly free of the controversy that Broun brings wherever he goes. I personally would prefer Handel, but Price>Broun and much, much better than losing this seat to a conservadem that could beat Broun in a bad year.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

Other thoughts
If Price runs, no Handel and vice-versa. They seem to have a close relationship.

Barrow probably won't leave his seat. I may be clouded by my proximity to the NC conservadem uber-survivor, Mike McIntyre,but Barrow seems like an excellent candidate for his area of the state, but not necessarily capable of 1. Winning a statewide primary with his conservative views. 2. Raising his statewide profile enough to win a race against anyone but an insane opponent.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


[ Parent ]
Could Handel run for Price's House seat
if he enters the Senate race?

[ Parent ]
Yes
In fact, I think that's rather likely.

[ Parent ]
Constitutionally, yes...
But I have no idea if she lives in or relatively close to his district.

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
Handel is from Fulton County
wasnt sure if she was from the part of Fulton that overlaps with Price's district.

[ Parent ]
I am now (likely) 2 for 2 so far
The open thread a couple weeks ago asked who the next 3 senators to retire would be after Rockefeller. I said Lautenberg Chambliss and Collins. Chambliss is out, Lautenberg is all but out now. Just waiting one one more for the trifecta. Gotta love being able to use a horse racing analogy about horse race politics in a website called red racing horses. Haha.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

I'm curious
Why you feel Lautenberg is "all but out".  Not one State Democrat has rallied behind Booker.  Most are saying bad things about him.  Lautenberg himself is taking him on.  I'm not saying he might not lose to Booker (that doesn't count as a retirement) or that he might decide to hang it up.  But it's not like he's being gently pushed aside by the establishment.  If anything, they are going to stay on his side.  Again, he could retire, but I wouldn't peg it at "all but out".  

[ Parent ]
Barrow has "No Plans" to Run for Senate.
http://atr.rollcall.com/georgi...

It isn't a sure "no" but it is a "I'm not interested in running."  

Conservative. (GA-14: Tom Graves)
McDaniel (MS-SEN), Wolf (KS-SEN), Brannon (NC-SEN), Buck (CO-SEN), Bevin (KY-SEN), Fire Graham!, Fire Cornyn!.


What about Amy Carter?
Or even Jason Carter for the Dems? Either one could make this a safe GOP hold.

[ Parent ]
That leaves Democrats with Baker, Reid or Barns again.
I don't see any of them actually winning, but one of them might give it a go.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Jim Marshall
Who I think is in the same catagory as Chandler in the "had over 50% shot at senate in 2008 and threw it away only to lose house seat club".

If a nonentity could get 46%, he might have managed 50%. Runoffs complicate things a bit in Georgia, but he basically would have had to outperform Obama by 3.1%.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Which is totally irrelevant to 2014.
Obama won't be on the ticket, turn-out will be lower, and Marshall knows what can happen to Democrats in mid-terms from personal experience. Also, getting to 50%+1 is the hard part; Chambliss would have beaten Marshall by 10 points in a run-off.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Just out of curiosity
Have we already forgotten that the routine #1 GOP defense of Voter ID laws has been that black turnout in Georgia held up strong in 2010?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Thoughts on the race
I think this race starts off as Likely R if both John Barrow and Paul Broun stay out.
Any Democrat vs. Broun or Barrow vs. any Republican starts as Lean R (and I'd go as far to say Tilt R if it's Barrow vs. Broun).
Roy Barnes, Jim Marshall, and Max Cleland are all intriguing and could push the race to Lean R as well, although Barnes may be too damaged from his two defeats.

I'm assuming the race is Karen Handel vs. a B list Democrat (a state senator or Thurbert Baker), which should lead to a ten or twelve point Handel victory.

It would be smart for Democrats to run a good candidate in the event Broun is picked as the nominee, but I'm not sure it's worth Barrow running and giving up his House seat for that relatively small chance.  Barrow should definitely stay out if Broun stays out.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


It'd take an extraordinary Democrat to win
No non-incumbent Democrat has won a statewide race in Georgia since 1998. The White voters in Georgia vote heavily Republican and the minority voters vote heavily Democratic. There aren't as many swing voters here as there are in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the 90's are long gone.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I know
it would have to be Barrow against Broun for Dems to win, and even then it's only a Tossup.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Never underestimate the power of a bad candidate
Mitt Romney won Indiana and Missouri by 10 points each, greatly improving on McCain. Mourdock and Akin still managed to lose the states by 6 and 16. That seems implausible but bad candidates can get loyal Republican voters to go the other way. Some people will choose someone they don't agree with but seems reasonable over someone they agree with but dislike.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It's a lot easier for Democrats to win in Indiana and Missouri
Obama carried Indiana in 2008, and Missouri has a Democratic Governor after all.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
They should've been better in 2012
Neither state is Wyoming, but these states went pretty red in 2012. Here are the best PVI changes for Romney:

Utah R+18 to R+27
West Virginia R+10 to R+16
Montana R+5 to R+9
Indiana R+3 to R+7
North Dakota R+8 to R+12
South Dakota R+8 to R+11
Missouri R+4 to R+7

What's truly ugly is that even though Romney got voters to flip, Republicans won 1 senate seat and lost 5 in those 7 states. I don't see Mitt as having some special appeal in Missouri or Montana.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
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