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IA-Sen: Tom Harkin Retiring

by: BostonPatriot

Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:35:58 AM EST


Our first surprise retirement of the cycle: (via USA Today)

U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin will not seek re-election in 2014, the Iowa Democrat said Saturday.

The 73-year-old Harkin told the Associated Press in an interview, "It's just time to step aside," noting that by the time he would finish a sixth term, he would be 81.

Harkin said the move also would allow a new generation of Democrats to seek higher office.

The announcement comes as a surprise, considering he had $2.7 million in his campaign war chest and was planning a gala fundraiser in Washington next month.

A couple things jump to mind. First, Harkin obviously had designs on running again throughout his final term and made this decision recently. He wasn't likely to draw a particularly strong challenge, but there had been signs that he was growing frustrated with the Senate, most recently criticizing fellow Democrats for not pursuing more aggressive filibuster reform.

Second, the "new generation of Democrats" is almost certainly a code word for "Rep. Bruce Braley," who has shown interest in a statewide bid and is a favorite of Harkin and other Iowa and national Dems. Braley's northeastern 1st is the most Democratic district in the state.

On the GOP side, Rep. Steve King made some noise about a possible Harkin challenge last fall, but has been quiet since. King is a firebrand and would probably make this race more difficult than it has to be. A stronger choice would be Rep. Tom Latham. At the statewide level, we have LG Kim Reynolds, Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, and SoS Matt Schultz as possibilities.

A race against Braley would be no easy task, but the path to 51 looks a bit easier today than it did yesterday.

BostonPatriot :: IA-Sen: Tom Harkin Retiring
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Free for all
Why not go all New Mexico 2008 and have everyone run?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Here's an interesting fract
This is Iowa's first open Senate seat since 1974. Both Grassley and Harkin defeated incumbents. Harkin defeated Sen. Roger Jepsen(R) in 1984 and Jepsen had defeated Sen. Dick Clark(D) in 1978. Grassley defeated Sen John C. Culver(Chet's father) in 1980-Culver had won the open seat in 1974 after Sen. Harold Hughes(D) retired after just one term.  

42, R, NE-1.

Roger Jepsen
Roger Jepsen inspired the old joke:

Q: Which state has a Senator dumber than Chuck Grassley?

A: Iowa!

That was certainly unfair to Grassley, probably not to Jepsen.


[ Parent ]
Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
Early Crystal Ball ratings: IA-Toss Up; WV-Leans R; GA-Likely R; MA-Toss Up (if Scott Brown runs).

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Other potential GOP candidates
former Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strewn
Iowa State Sen. Brad Zaun
Secretary of State Matt Schultz
activist Bob Vander Plaats
Republican Party of Iowa co-chair David Fischer
state GOP finance chairman Drew Ivers  
state Rep. Pat Grassley

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


toss a cuveball
maybe try to get christian fong to run  

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
Had to look him up; impressive guy.
However, he's in his early thirties and senate is kind of a tough thing to run for your first time out. His abortive gubernatorial run shows he has ambition, but given the number of Republicans likely to run for IA-Sen, there should be a seat or two opening up he could run for.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
....
Age is not a probleam looking at the Il sen race two of the bettercandidates are young

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
IA-1
He's been rumored to run the last two cycles. Perhaps with it being open, he finally gives it a go.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
His bio reminds me a bit of Bobby Jindal's
Definitely a guy to keep an eye on. It's a shame that he's from the most Democratic part of Iowa. I wonder if he wouldn't parachute into Des Moines and try for IA-03 when Latham vacates it.

[ Parent ]
I think he'll follow the vacancy.
If Reynolds does in fact run for this, Fong might be a decent LG pick for Branstad. If Latham runs, he could move. Even for Braley's seat, I wouldn't entirely count him out; as I recall it--or a configuration similar to it--was held by Jim Nussell as late as 2006.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
King, Miller, Raese, Broun
How many of the four run? That will be fundamental to determining who wins the Senate in 2014.

Mainstream Dem.  

I want to be a senator syndrome
Otherwise known as Akinitis. It's a belief that if you want to be a U.S. Senator, you should run, even if others say it's bad for the party and you can't win. Todd Akin wanted to be a senator, so there was no way he could step aside. And he was certain he'd win, dismissing all the silly naysayers.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
This long predates Akin
A prime example was Senator William Clark D-MT

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
William Clark?
I'm sure it goes back further than that but I don't know William Clark and thought a good reference would be someone everyone knows.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
He was a ballsy dude
He was a corrupt copper baron back in the robber baron days. He deeply wanted to be a senator, so he essentially rooked the system by bribing the Lt. Governor to appoint him to the senate when the governor was out of the state. He also openly bribed members of the Montana legislature later to appoint him again once the U.S. Senate refused to seat him the first time. He famously said something "I only buy people that are for sale" or something like that. He was actually the reason the 17th amendment was originally started shortly thereafter. Also, for some reason he had enough money to actually pay to have a county in a Nevada named after him by bribing those legislators.

Also, he is probably most famous for being the father of Hughette Clark, the recluse billionaire that hid herself from the public for 70 years but died recently

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Clark County
I just found out not that long ago that Clark County, Nevada was named after that William Clark-I had always assumed it was the William Clark of Lewis and Clark fame.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
That's the problem with having a common name. LOL.


[ Parent ]
In the 80s
Another William Clark was National Security Advisor and Interior Secretary (yeah, I don't get that combination either) for Reagan.

[ Parent ]
Raese certainly won't
Miller won't if Parnell runs. And Broun will lose the primary even if he does run. So, the real question is will King run and my gut says no.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Raese
He has a ceiling of 35% against Capito and is thus irrelevant.

[ Parent ]
Remember Betty Ireland...
She thought Bill Maloney was irrelevant.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Capito is a lot more popular than Ireland
and Raese is a lot less likeable than Maloney.

21, Conservative Republican MA-04 College MA-01




[ Parent ]
Both are true
The biggest difference is that Maloney is a quality candidate and Raese is not. Most people here had decided that Maloney gave us a much better chance at winning than Ireland by the time of that primary.

[ Parent ]
Well, one of them surely wouldn't win a primary
That's Raese, who I highly doubt runs yet again.

Of the other three, I think there's a better-than-50/50 chance Miller and Broun enter, but I suspect only the former would have a real shot at the nomination. My hunch is King actually passes.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Reynolds or Lathem.
I'm concerned that some of the other candidates might not be socially conservative enough to keep King out. Reynolds is a so-con, but not a fire-brand like King, and could probably win support from Brandstad as well. I also like Tom Lathem, who did a great job in his member-v-member in 2012. Given how much of the state he's represented, I have to figure he'd be a pretty strong recruit here. Unfortunately, if Lathem runs, King probably does as well, and I think he's got the more densely GOP district, which could make it harder for Lathem to beat him in a primary.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

Axelrod hoping for Braley-King
Harkin's exit could set up defining battle between 2 House members: Bruce Braley, a charismatic D; and Steve King, a hero of the far Right.

https://twitter.com/davidaxelr...

33, R, IN-09


This is my concern about a Latham/King primary...
It'll set up a tea party verses establishment dynamic, and a bunch of SCF and CFG money, not to mention other tea party groups, will flow to King. Even in a Reynolds/King match-up, or a Reynolds/Vanderplotz match-up, Reynolds is conservative enough to split the tea partiers, possibly get Palin's backing (she's actually been quite effective in primaries, for good and ill), and set up more of an Ayotte/Lamontagne or Fiorina/DeVore dynamic than a straight-up tea party establishment fight.

Now, if King doesn't run, Latham's undeniably the strongest candidate. At 65, he could probably still serve at least two terms. Also, given her focus on local government issues and education reform, Reynolds may want to go for governor rather than senate. But if King or Vanderplotz start looking like they're going to get in, Reynolds is better positioned to beat either one, and hence win a general, than Latham is.

If King doesn't run and Latham and Reynolds both run, I have no idea how that would play out.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
Rothenberg's Taylor
Numbers are still on the Democrats' side, even though the GOP year of 2010 was kind to the GOP. President Obama won the state twice now, with nearly 54 percent in 2008 and 52 percent in 2012.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida were all won by Obama and have PVIs between D+3 and R+1.5. Most lean Democratic in a Presidential year but I don't think you can use those numbers in a mid-term. With Obama in the White House 2014 should lean at least slightly Republican. Of course, bad candidates killed Republican leans in 2012, but without knowing the candidates i don't see how you can call Iowa Lean Democratic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I'm in between a pure tossup and it tilting Dem
Braley is going to get a free pass in the primary, while we may have chaos on our side. So, I'm not in great disagreement with this rating, as it is way too early in the cycle.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
How would Reynolds' past DUIs play?
http://blogs.desmoinesregister...

On one hand, I feel like it could be a negative, but Braley or any other male Democrat would have to be careful to not go too far and look mean about it.

Wonder if King would talk about it in a King-Reynolds primary?

Mainstream Dem.  


Entirely depends on how she handles it.
Given that her last one was in 2000, she can certainly make the argument that she's recovered. I also don't know if there's a GWB-style born again angle to it, but that might mitigate it completely.

King's got to worry even more about looking mean; so-con women vote, and if he picks on her too much Palin and Bachmann may well jump in on her behalf. I also recall BVP endorsed her very quickly after Brandstad picked her, so figure she actually reduces the probability of King or BVP running, but we'll see.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
BVP actaully ran against her for LT Gov
In Iowa the Gov nominee just recommends his choice to the convention, so BVP decided to challenge her. King endorsed her right after Branstad picked her. She beat BVP 55% to 45%.    

21, Conservative Republican MA-04 College MA-01




[ Parent ]
Thanks for the background...
I remembered a prominent so-con backing her early, but erroniously thought it was BVP.

This makes me think he might stand aside for her, though BVP wouldn't. She could definitely beat the latter in a primary.

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
Two scenarios
King clearly wants to be a senator.

Scenario #1: King runs in 2014.  I think he's unbeatable in a GOP primary, even against Latham.  He comes from the district with the most GOP votes and he will have base enthusiasm behind him.  Tilt/Lean King against Latham, Lean King against anyone else.

Scenario #2: King does the smart thing and waits for Grassley's likely 2016 retirement.  No Democrat in the state is as strong as Braley (although potentially Tom Vilsack could run for this seat here), so King would have a better shot at winning election should he be nominated.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


of course
in my opinion, King loses the Senate election either way, but he's a "true believer" like Todd Akin so he'll run anyways.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Braley
If Braley loses in 2014 he'll likely be back in 2016.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Potentially
But when's the last time that happened in a state with more than 3 EVs?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
What difference does that make?
A lot of people who lost elections have run again, some in state with 3 EVs, some in states with more. Off the top of my head, Heather Wilson, John Ensign, Tom Campbell, George Allen, Slade Gordon, Jay Nixon, Mark Neumann, Mark Warner, and Rudy Boschwitz all did.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I suspect
He meant when was the last time someone won after losing a race for the same office.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Or, rather
When someone won a senate seat after losing a senate race. His comment doesn't make much sense otherwise. And, now, I'll stop talking for him!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
2008
I'm fairly sure it was Jeanne Shaheen, and I think John Ensign before that.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
More
Ben Nelson was elected the same year as John Ensign, after losing his 1996 Senate race. Also, Mark Warner. Slipped my mind he ran back in 1996 as well, when he lost to John Warner.

I assume primary runs don't count, because then I think the last one would be Pat Toomey.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Ben Nelson is a good example
But Democrats really had nobody else.  Mark Warner was Governor in between so I'm not counting it.  I don't think it's likely for Braley to be renominated and win should he lose.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Don't forget John Thune
Of course, Jay Nixon, Ted Strickland, and Jay Inslee all lost elections and later became governor. Good candidates losing elections doesn't mean they won't win later.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
John Thune was in a 3 EV state
There isn't always much of a bench in small states.  In Iowa, Dems have a good enough bench that I don't think the establishment would rally around Braley after he lost a winnable 2014 race.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Good candidates
I'm sure they do, but when you're the most high profile candidate you get another shot. Hence, Dino Rossi, George Allen, and Heather Wilson get another shot. If Martha Coakley wanted to run for Massachusetts governor, she'd get a lot of support.

Thune, John Ensign, and Dino Rossi got another shot because he'd been elected before and lost a close one. If you lose the way Todd Akin did, you're exiled. If Braley were to lose a winnable race by a lot, then he won't be back.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Agree
If Braley were to lose 51-49 to Latham they'd happily trot him out again in 2016.

[ Parent ]
latham repped that district too
Latham or bust here. Latham has repped the western counties, polk, and north central. 2 strong victories in obama districts.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
latham repped half state
He really should run, he can raise money, and every 2 years he's gonna be targeted.  

[ Parent ]
I dunno
He'll be 66 in 2014, and he has a powerful position in the House--he's Chair of the Appropriations subcommittee on Transportation. Would he give that up for an iffy shot at being a Senator at his age?

[ Parent ]
It comes down to one thing
Does he want to be a senator? If this is an ambition of his, then he'll go for it. In 2008 I asked Steve Pearce why he was giving up a relatively safe seat for a bruising primary and an uphill senate battle in a tough environment. He said that it's better to be 1 of 100, rather than 1 of 435 and senate seats don't come up often in New Mexico. If Chuck Grassley runs for re-election in 2016 this might be the best opportunity.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Iowa about to experience what Hawaii is right now.
A huge loss of seniority in a short period of time.

They may well lose 3/4 of their House delegation (Braley, King, Latham) and both Senators (if Grassley retires in 2016) in a span of 2 yrs. Only Loebsack would have served more than 2 yrs come the start of the Congress in 2017.

Wonder if this could make it easier to reform farm subsidies (and end or reduce subsidies for ethanol) in 2017?

Wonder if the potential of this happening makes Grassley stick it out for another term come 2016?

Mainstream Dem.  


Any chance that Branstad decides to run for Senate?
I think we can all agree he would make this lean GOP. Cant believe that the powers that be arent going all out to talk him into running for Senate.

IA-SEN
I think the most likely matchup is Braley vs. King.

I think Reynolds will smartly see staying on the ticket with Branstadt is her ticket to being the R frontrunner for Governor in 2018.  I think she will also see that King is likely to run and while she could beat him, It won't be easy.

I don't think Latham will run due to closeness to Boehner and his age.  I just can't see him giving up his tenure for maybe 2 terms in the Senate.

I also highly doubt Brandstadt runs.

So I really think we are left with Braley vs. King.  If Braley doesn't run I would be shocked, but I would expect Tom Vilsack to run then.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Not necessarily on Reynolds.
It kind of depends on what she wants, and what issues really drive her. Her local government experience and education focus lean toward governor, but she's also very pro-life and fiscally conservative. There's also the fact that Brandstad isn't exactly wildly popular.

Latham's 65, which would realistically give him two terms in the senate if he wanted it. Yes, he's close with Boehner, but everybody said the same thing about Tim Scott, and he's gone to the upper chamber.

There is very little chance King doesn't draw a credible primary challenger capable of rallying the establishment.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
Whose next?
Who retires next?

28, Republican, PA-6

I just have this gut feeling on Durbin
he says he's announcing a decision within a couple weeks.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Enzi, Levin, and Lautenberg
I still believe all three hang it up.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Enzi won't be next
If he retires he'll be the last one.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Best Republican
I would say Tom Latham would be by far the best candidate. In his 20-year career, he has represented 3 different congressional districts. He represented the 5th in the 1990s (Western, most conservative CD), the 4th in the 2000s (Central, swing district), and now the 3rd (SW, swing district). His current district is only 15% of his old district. He defeated Boswell, a center-left Democrat, by 8 points. He now represents the most populous county: Polk. He has also lived in 3 different cities: Alexander, Ames, and Clive. He is perfect.

The second best Republican would be Jim Leach. Surprised? Well, he has represented the Democratic-leaning eastern part of the state from 1977-2007. He lost re-election in 2006, a Democratic wave election cycle, by just 2 points in a Democratic-leaning CD. In 2009, he was appointed by Obama to be Chairman of the National Endowment for the Humanities. He can be a bipartisan candidate, although he would be challenged by the right.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican


I believe Leach endorsed Obama in 08
I think that would be a nonstarter.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yep, no way
Supporting the other party's candidate for president means you've pretty much left your old party and have no electoral future in it anymore. I can't see him running for Senate as a Republican, much less winning a primary.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Actually yea you guys are right
I didn't know Leach endorsed Obama in 2008 and even spoke at the DNC. He's automatically disqualified.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
Leach lives around the corner from me in MD-08
He has the perfect house for a politician. Mostly hidden by trees, it is quite unassuming when viewed from the curb, but it generates a "Holy F***ing S**t!" reaction when seen from a satellite view. (The tax records show it at 9,200 sq. ft., excluding the basement.)

[ Parent ]
I'm just gonna throw out State Auditor, David Vaudt
as a potential nominee.

Pat Grassley
Chuck Grassley wants his grandson to succeed him in 2016.

http://www.iowahouserepublican...

Honestly, the kid's bio doesn't seem that impressive.


Agree
Being a state rep, college student, and family farm hand hardly qualifies anyone for state senator let alone US Senator.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Braley to Explore Senate Bid for Harkin's Seat
http://atr.rollcall.com/iowa-b...

If Latham runs, that'd make IA-3 a competitive open seat. I don't like that.

I don't think would be strong statewide, but he wasn't as bad this year as people made him out to be. He actually matched Romney against a strong challenger. Bill Johnson, Jim Renacci, and Mary Bono Mack were a little worse. Allen West and Michele Bachmann were major underachievers.

http://www.desmoinesregister.c...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Other Potential candidates?
Tell me if you have any reservations about these potential Republican candidates:

1. Ron Corbett: Mayor of Cedar Rapids (2nd largest city) and former Speaker of the Iowa HOR

2. Jim Nussle: Former Director of OMB under GWB (2007-2009), former U.S. Congressman (1991-2007), former Chairman of House Budget Committee (2001-2007), Republican nominee for Governor in 2006 (lost to Chet Culver 54%-44%), and currently President/COO of Growth Energy

3. Jim Ross Lightfoot: Former U.S. Congressman (1985-1997), Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 (lost to Harkin 52%-47%), and Republican nominee for Governor in 1998 (lost to Tom Vilsack 52%-47%)

4. David Vaudt: State Auditor (2003-Present) and has won 3 statewide elections- 2002 (49%), 2006 (unopposed), and 2010 (56%)

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican


Lightfoot is basically a nobody at this point
Being a Congressman 18 years prior to the 2014 elections isn't exactly a great resume

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
He's older than Harkin, too.
Lightfoot will be 76 in 2014.

[ Parent ]
He's also moved away
Wikipedia says he lives in Texas now.

23, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 

[ Parent ]
Good point
Yeah I didn't check his age. That's too old. So I'll cross his name off the list.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
I was thinking Nussle would be a good candidate for you guys
Yeah he got his backside handed to him when he ran for governor, but it was 2006, so he had an excuse. He held down a blue district in Eastern Iowa for quite a while, so he could overperform there. As far as candidate quality goes, I would put him behind Latham, on par with Reynolds and far ahead of King.  

23, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 

[ Parent ]
Latham in Polk County, 2012
Mitt Romney got 41.98% in Des Moines-dominated Polk County. Tom Latham, who had never represented Des Moines before, got to 47.08% in the county. Romney got 47.83% of the vote districtwide and Latham got 52% districtwide (or 54% of the two way vote).

Leonard Boswell represented Des Moines for an entire decade and Latham ran really well in Polk County, about as well as he ran districtwide in comparison to Romney. Tom Latham's just so electable.

http://www.gis.co.polk.ia.us/e...


I like the fact that King owes him.
Boston Patriot mentioned either on this thread or the weekend open thread that King owes Latham for going after IA-03 instead of IA-04. If this is strong enough motivation to keep King out, I think this eases a lot of my concerns about Latham. His departure would make IA-03 competitive, but Republicans could have a very strong recruit in IA-01 if Fong runs for it, and while it's the most Democratic seat in Iowa I'm not convinced it's totally out of reach.

Bottom line: Latham is probably our strongest GE candidate, and would be awesome if we can keep King out.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


[ Parent ]
Braley in Black Hawk County, 2012
On the flip side, Barack Obama got 59.0% in Waterloo-dominated Black Hawk.  Congressman Bruce Braley, who has lived in Waterloo for years, got 60.4% in the county against a candidate from a neighboring county.  Braley struggled to do much better than Obama in other counties in the 1st district.  Latham appears to have much better cross-over appeal than Braley.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Latham had never represented Polk County
But he was certainly a well known figure on Des Moines TV.

[ Parent ]
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