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Massachusetts 2012 Presidential Election Results by Senate District

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 13:37:44 PM EST

I find Massachusetts fascinating. It's just so unique and somewhere Republicans should do better. Here are the Obama-Romney numbers for the Massachusetts State Senate. I'm including districts where Republicans should have a shot. I don't know near as much about Massachusetts, so I welcome those who can provide more insight.
Left Coast Libertarian :: Massachusetts 2012 Presidential Election Results by Senate District
Second Hampden Hampshire - Obama 59.0%-39.2%, Michael Knapik (R) unopposed
I have no idea why Democrats don't run a candidate in such an Obama district. Maybe Knapik is unbeatable?

There are 9 districts that are more Romney. Republicans ran candidates in five of them and only finished within 30 points in one.

Norfolk, Bristol & Middlesex - Obama 52.3%-46.2%, Richard Ross (R) unopposed
This district is drawn in a straight line. I'm not sure why it was drawn this way since none of the towns are very Democratic.

First Plymouth & Bristol - Obama 52.1%-46.5%, No Republican
This district isn't far from Ross or Hedlund's district.

Worcester & Middlesex - Obama 51.9%-46.2% No Republican
This district is in Fitchburg/Leominster.

First Essex & Middlesex - Obama 50.5%-48.1%, Bruce Tarr (R) unopposed
It's nice when they don't challenge the few seats Republicans have.

Bristol & Norfolk - Obama 50.4%-48.2%, Democrat 62.5%-37.5%
The district adjacent to Ross' district.

Plymouth and Barnstable - Obama 50.3%-48.5%, Democrat 58.2%-48.5%
Overlaps three House districts represented by Republicans.

Worcester & Norfolk - Obama 50.2%-48.3%, No Republican

Plymouth & Norfolk - Obama 49.6%-49.3% Bob Hedlund (R) 68.3%-31.7%
The only Republican they challenged.

Worcester Hampden Hampshire - Romney 48.94%-48.92%, No Republican
This was the only district in Massachusetts that Romney won. Probably a good place to field a candidate.  

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State Senate
Second Hampden and Hampshire
-Knapik is unbeatable, at least by the standards of the Democratic bench in the district. There are two Republican State Rep's (Humason, Boldgya), and 1 Democratic State Rep from Holyoke within the district. The Holyoke Democrats tend not to appeal to the rest of the district, and with Knapik being as tough of a Senator as they come to taking down, he's got this district locked up until he calls it quits. If we get a GOP Governor in there before 2020, I'd love to swap out Easthamptom for West Springfield.

Norfolk, Bristol and Middlesex-
Ross is probably OK in this district. He's well known in the southern more Conservative end, and the Democrats really weakened the Democratic base in the North by parting out Needham. It was drawn this way for a number of reasons. Before the late 1990's, this was a solidly Republican seat from North to South. The Incumbent was David Locke, the Republican Minority Leader (unbeatable), and he lived close to Boston in Wellesley. The Boston districts had been shrinking since the 1950's, so they extended out in Norfolk County for more turf, pushing Locke's district South and West, and coincidentally piling all of the Republican areas of Western Norfolk County together (which form a line). Today, the GOP holds 2 State Rep seats in the district (Winslow and Poirier). Eventually, the district to its immediate east moved out of Boston all-together, and that district is....

Bristol and Norfolk-
Probably the best district for the GOP to pick up, but the Timilty name is gold in Norfolk County, and he probably won't be beat. This district used to be a part of Boston, but slowly moved out and remained Democratic until Jo Ann Sprague picked it up after Bill Keating became Norfolk DA. The Democrats got it back in 2004, and recently removed super-Republican Dover from the district, harming our donor pool here. 2 GOP State Rep's here (Barrows and Howitt)

First Plymouth and Bristol-
This Taunton-based district was Republican for most of the 20th Century, but fell into Democratic hands with Bill Clinton's Massachusetts romps in 1992 and 1996. It's held by faux ConservaDem Marc Pacheco, who probably will be here until he finds a better job. GOP has three State Reps in the district (O'Connell, D'Emilia and Gifford)

Worcester and Middlesex-
Historically Democratic mill towns in Northern Worcester County, Scott Brown really helped the GOP out here, but we lost our State Rep in the area in 2012. Flanagan is another faux ConservaDem, but this area has little GOP farm team, and has been very frustrating for the GOP despite its conservative nature.

First Essex and Middlesex-
This district has been GOP forever, and has been gerrymandered for the GOP, and to help out its four Democratic neighbors. Gloucester has been getting pretty left lately, so I'm a little nervous about it when Tarr leaves, but it's his as long as he wants it. The Democrats ran a couple of big money challenges in the early 2000's, and got destroyed against Tarr. So they are probably going to wait him out some more. 3 GOP State Reps here (Mirra, Hill and Jones)

Plymouth and Barnstable-
Another very frustrating district. It's the Senate President's. We nearly took her down in 2010, before she routed her 2010 opponent Tom Keyes in November. She's term limited out as Senate President in the next cycle, it will be interesting if she decides to become a backbencher or retire. Most of this seat is strongly GOP, but Falmouth is a liberal thorn in our side. 3 GOP State Reps here (deMacedo, Hunt and Vieira).

Worcester and Norfolk-
This is true blue, ancestral Democratic territory in Southern Worcester county. Voted against Weld in 1990, but is among the most Republican now-a-days. True ConservaDem Richard Moore has held down this seat for over a decade, and is getting old. The Democrats have only defeated former State Rep Jennifer Callahan, and Milford State Rep John Fernandes if he decides to leave. The GOP has two State Rep's (Fattman and Kuros) who are definitely rising stars for the party and both defeated incumbents in 2010. We nearly defeated Moore in 2010 with State Committeewoman Kim Roy who ran on stickers for the primary, and then revved it up for 6 weeks, and lost 54-46% in the end. Moore otherwise usually goes unopposed. I would love to get Southbridge out of this seat in redistricting.

Plymouth and Norfolk-
The Irish South Shore. Hedlund's been here since the early 1990's. He is a pretty libertarian Republican, was defeated in the 1992 bloodbath, and returned in 1994 and thereafter. I'm a little nervous when he should move on from the Senate. This district is pretty Republican, but there is a lot of ancestral good will for the Democrats here, and Four ambitious Democratic State Reps. (None on our side!) We need to take out some of the Dem Reps here, and get a successor lined up.

Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex-
This is a giant rural conservative district in Western Worcester County. This part of Worcester county has usually been Republican, but ConservaDem Stephen Brewer picked it under the Clinton bloodbaths. We've tried many times to defeat Brewer with no luck. Another instance of where we are minus another wave election, going to have to wait him out. GOP has two State Rep's here (Smola and Durant). Durant would be a perfect candidate for the district should Brewer move on.

Other Districts the GOP should absolutely contest-
1st Essex-
ConservaDem Baddour retired in 2012, three way race allowed liberal O'Connor Ives to win this conservative district, but she's from the Newburyport portion here. If we can get a 1v1 race with a strong GOPer from Methuen/Haverhill (2/3 of the population), she's toast. Obama won 55-44%, but Brown won here 54-46%.

If Open, the GOP must contest (but usually have a Dem Stronghold buried in them)-
Cape and Islands
2nd Essex
3rd Essex
2nd Essex and Middlesex
1st Hampden and Hampshire
1st Middlesex
5th Middlesex
2nd Middlesex and Norfolk
Middlesex and Worcester
Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth
Norfolk and Plymouth
2nd Plymouth and Bristol
2nd Worcester

If you keep the 10 we mentioned before, and 1/3 of the other seats, the GOP could hold up vetos again.

Baker '14
R, MA-3

Cape and Islands Obama 56.5%-42.2%
2nd Essex Obama 58.0%-40.5%
3rd Essex Obama 60.6%-38.3%
2nd Essex and Middlesex Obama 58.5%-40.2%
1st Middlesex Obama 57.5%-40.8%
5th Middlesex Obama 58.5%-40.2%
2nd Middlesex and Norfolk Obama 58.5%-39.9%
Middlesex and Worcester Obama 58.1%-40.2%
Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Obama 57.9%-40.8%
Norfolk and Plymouth Obama 56.9-41.7%
2nd Plymouth and Bristol Obama 59.3%-39.9%
2nd Worcester Obama 55.7%-42.8%


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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1st Hampden and Hampshire
Obama 56.12%-42.26%

Baker '14
R, MA-3

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