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Political Roundup for February 1st, 2013

by: Daniel Surman

Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


NYC Mayor: RIP Ed Koch, who passed away around 2:00 AM. I'll leave the obituary to this lengthy write-up in the New York Times.

Senate

New Mexico: Former Governor (R) and 2016 Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is rebooting his non-profit, the Our America Initiative. It now appears he will not completely abandon politics, as he publicly speculated about previously. He has not yet ruled out a run for Senate as a Republican.

Iowa: Rep. Bruce Braley told Iowa reporters he is meeting with Senators Reid and Bennett, the Senate Majority Leader and head of the DSCC respectively, about a run for Senator Harkin's seat in 2014, making a run seem pretty darn likely at this point.

New Jersey: New Jersey politics is just plain strange. Now we have the Geraldo Rivera "truly contemplating" a run for US Senate in New Jersey as a Republican. Well, he could self-fund at least. If anyone's counting, you have the Menendez story and the whole problem with bankers buying elections and... well, it's colorful.

Georgia: She was mentioned as a possibility yesterday, but now Atlanta Dream co-owner Kelly Loeffler is saying that while she has a "strong interest in politics," running for public office is "not something I have envisioned." She did not rule out a run for office in the future (she is only 42).

More Iowa: Harper Polling moves into Iowa. The general election numbers are interesting (Rep. Steve King trails Braley 34-39, but Rep. Tom Latham leads 36-33), but I find the primary match-ups even more fascinating. In a head-to-head, King easily bests Latham 46-29, but throw in other candidates like social conservative Bob Vander Plaats and libertarian Drew Ivers and the race narrows to 31-26-16 with King on top and Latham and Vander Plaats trailing.

Governor

Minnesota: After a rout in the 2012 elections, some Minnesota Republicans organized an event entitled, "Where do we go from here?" Attendees returned to their cars with flyers advertising an effort to Draft Tom Emmer. Interestingly, the Treasurer of the effort is Tom Coulter, Emmer's former bodyman and driver, and the Chair is State Rep. Doug Wardlow.

Virginia: Former DNC Chair and gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is reportedly "good friends" with Salomon Melgen. If you don't know who Melgen is, he is involved with the mess involving Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and his activities in the Dominican Republic.

Arizona: The usual "What if Mark Kelly ran for office?!?" article. We've seen these before, and it is true he moved with his wife, Rep. Gabby Giffords (D)  to Tucson (from his home in League City, TX) five months ago. But the big thing missing is any willingness from the potential candidate, who is busy working on his new pro gun control super PAC, Americans for Responsible Solutions.

Rhode Island: PPP polls a bunch of permutations of the Rhode Island gubernatorial race.Some notes:
  • Moderate Party candidate Ken Block (who has run for office several times before) polls between 8-16% in every potential four-way race.
  • Republicans Allen Fung and Brendan Doherty have strong approval ratings (55/14 and 45/32, respectively), but Democrats Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras' are stronger (57/21 and 63/21).
  • Voters are not fans of Governor Lincoln Chafee (I). He trails the Republican and Democratic candidates in every race he is tested in, whether as a Democrat or Independent, and his approval ratings are pretty poor at 33/59.
  • In a race with Chafee and another Democratic nominee, the margins are close for a Republican (32% for Raimondo, 28% for Doherty, 22% for Chafee and 8% for Block in one permutation) but weaker without the incumbent governor (44% for Raimondo, 32% for Doherty and 10% for Block).

More Rhode Island: Former Rep. Bob Weygand (D) is considering a run for Governor. Interestingly, Weygand is pro-life in stridently Democratic Rhode Island, which has a large number of relatively socially conservative Catholics. The article also has a useful rundown of who is in or out halfway into it.

Connecticut: State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney (R) told a local news station that he is "unofficially" announcing his run for Governor. The conventional wisdom has been that the nomination is 2010 candidate Tom Foley's if he wants it, and he already plans to run.

House

AL-05: Former Rep. Parker Griffth (D then R) sat down to basically let loose on everything he could think about regarding Alabama and national politics.

IA-01:
If Rep. Bruce Braley (D) runs for US Senate, State Rep. Pat Murphy (D) is "definitely interested." I would encourage him not to run, not due to his partisan affiliation but his name. We already have former Rep. Pat Murphy (D-PA) and Rep. Pat Murphy (D-FL). This will start being like Andersons in Minnesota!

CT-05: Former State Rep. Brian Flaherty (R) is interested in a bid for Congress.He seems to be a moderate-ish candidate in the mold of Andrew Roraback, who ran in 2012 and narrowly lost to now-Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D).

Miscellaneous

Secretary of Defense: By all accounts, former Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) bombed his confirmation hearing yesterday. At one point, he claimed to support the Obama administration's policy of containment towards Iran, but recanted when he received a note informing him the Obama administration did not have a policy of containment and therefore did not support it. Anyway, it does not seem likely this will prevent his confirmation.

Secretary of Labor: Colorado Lt. Gov. Joe Garcia (D) is a top candidate to become Secretary of Labor.

LA Mayor:
A poll from Survey USA finds four candidates in double-digits: City Councilman Eric Garcetti at 24%, City Controller Wendy Greuel at 20%, City Councilwoman Jan Perry (the only black candidate) at 15%, and Republican Kevin James at 12%.

OH Treasurer: Treasurer Josh Mandel, last seen coming off of a loss in his bid for US Senate in 2012, is running for re-election in 2014.

MA GOP: Former Scott Brown aide Kristen Hughes defeated Rick Green to become Chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party. The vote had been cast as a division between establishment and grassroots types, even if the situation was nearly as divisive as that seen in places like Alaska and Nevada. The vote was narrow, 41-39 on a second ballot, and Green will become her deputy chair.

Daniel Surman :: Political Roundup for February 1st, 2013
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PA-Gov: Corbett's son-in-law caught stealing cash
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

I disagree with Fast Eddie here.  I think this is just another black eye for Corbett.

28, Republican, PA-6


AK-SEN
Only Parnell leads Begich. Begich demolishes Joe Miller.
http://conservativeintel.com/2...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


I think Treadwell could win
He's down 44-34 but has pretty low name rec and Begich hasn't been attacked yet. It was also encouraging to see Treadwell ahead of Miller in the primary. You have to assume that the vast majority of Parnell voters would go for Treadwell if their top choice doesn't run.

[ Parent ]
I can't see Miller winning in a not-crowded primary
I think just about anyone would trounce him in a one-on-one.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Miller should primary Young
He's stay a tea party star if he did that.

[ Parent ]
Yes
I'm perfectly willing to deal with Rep. Joe Miller or even sacrifice a house seat for two years to get Don Young out of there.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
This is weird
Do they not understand that you don't include decimals in poll results??

[ Parent ]
Agree
I cannot take a pollster serious if they include decimals.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
yeah take a page from PPP!
And only put decimals in your tweets when you need to drive a narrative in a slight direction!

[ Parent ]
PPP
Only did that a handful of times, maybe like 1-3 times when it was 1 or 2 voters difference if I remember correctly.  And they never, ever included it in the official polling releases from my recollection.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
yes i know
It was a joke.  

[ Parent ]
My Sarcasm Meter
Is clearly broken, my bad!

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Worthless primary numbers are worthless
We can only speculate on how Parnell and Palin's voters will break, but if we give Miller 70% of Palin voters and 40% of Parnell voters he'd lead Treadwall 44-41.

And I don't think the dark money will be for Treadwall.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Agree
Alaska is also the hardest state to poll period.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
That or Hawaii
Definitely would like to see a local pollster like Dittman poll here.

[ Parent ]
Yes
I wonder whose underpolled in Alaska.  The bulk of the state's population is clustered in a few areas, but I could see some serious issues with the far flung villages.  Maybe I have been watching too many episodes of Alaska State Troopers lately.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
The thing is
I can't imagine it is terribly hard to poll metro anchorage/Mat-Su, which is the vast majority of the state population, but the rural areas up north are so lopsodedly blue that they can affect the statewide total in spite of being only 10-15% of the vote total. These voters are going to be nearly impossible to poll as well.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
It's also not confidence inspiring...
... that they don't know what crosstabs are (the link for crosstabs just leads to a separate set of nonpolitical questions.)

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Conservative Intelligence Briefing
I am not sure I ever heard of the outfit before recently.  Are they some entity created to push Harper Polling's numbers?  We can trash PPP all day long, but at least they give us lots of data.  Harper Polling seems to not even have the basic data down yet.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Take this with a grain of salt
Word around the State House today is Scott Brown probably won't run for Senate OR governor and instead venture into the private sector.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

How close are these folks to Brown?
The media seems to write articles suggesting something different everyday.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
These folks aren't close to Brown himself
They're close to folks who are close to Brown.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
This just bugs me
Rumors on the 29th were, Brown was likely in, but waiting for confirmation by MassGOP Chair election. He got his candidate last night, I was hoping that would have sealed the deal.

I guess we aren't going to know until he announces, but that's probably the way it always was.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Jobs report
157k added in January. Both November and December revised way up.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

MN-Gov
Is Emmer really considering a run? Or is this just some activists wanting him to run in spite of him not being interested?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

AZ-Gov
Pro gun control and running in AZ? Kelly should have some goodwill, but I'm not sure how those stances would fly if he were to run.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

MA-Sen: Baker rules out run, urges Weld to consider
http://bostonherald.com/news_o...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

I never thought Baker would go for Senate
He's a state guy through and through.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
UT-4; Interesting info on Mia Love, as she visits the state capital
http://utahpolicy.com/bookmark...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Mia Love
I'm not close enough to UT-04 to say whether Mia Love ran a "poor campaign" as the linked-article alleges. But I'll repeat something I've said here before: I just don't understand what impelled her to join Mitt Romney for an appearance in Ohio during the middle of the campaign (October, IIRC). Yes, I'm sure the Romney organization asked her to do it. Yes, I'm sure she was flattered by the attention and the support she was getting from GOP-groups nationwide. But she was in a tight race at home, and that should have been her #1 political priority for every minute of every day until the polls closed on November 6th. It really baffles me why she (or other Utah Republicans) didn't see that at the time. The UT-04 race was there for the taking. We'll see if it is again next year, or not.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
She probably felt the positive news coverage she would recieve
by being seen rallying with Romney was worth the time it would take to go to OH and back. I'm sure her appearence with Romney generated a lot of free media in UT. Love wanted to tie herself as close as possible to Romney and ride his coattails to Washington.

[ Parent ]
I'll tell you why
Her pollster showed she was a lock to win. Same with people like Berg and Allen. A lot of the problems stemmed from bad polling this time.  

[ Parent ]
Then they were awful candidates
I don't know how their pollster could've showed they were a lock to win when public polling said the opposite. I understand incumbents facing underfunded challengers assuming they'll win.

I've volunteered on a few campaigns and I can't imagine anyone else assuming that. Whether they've been ahead or behind in the polls they've all acted like if they just worked a little harder and do a little more they'll win. Steve Stivers ran against a challenger who had no money in a very Republican district and he told me that he was running his campaign the same way he did against Mary Jo Kilroy.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
It was all about turnout numbers
Republicans believed that the turnout was going to be whiter and more conservative than 2008. Republican polling companies showed this in their numbers. They basically determined what they thought the electorate was going to look like and then adjusted it to their poll.

[ Parent ]
No one I talked to thought the electorate would be Whiter than 2008
Everyone expects the electorate in Presidential years to be less white in each subsequent election.

The electorate was more conservative. 2008 was 34% conservative and 2012 was 35% conservative. People certainly expected a more Republican electorate than 2008. And it was, just not as much as some people thought it'd be.

I'm sure Republican candidates projected an electorate where they'd win. That's a no brainer. if you're projecting an electorate where you lose, you might as well go home and play cards. Everyone I met this cycle worked hard to make sure that electorate turned out. That includes the Romney campaign, who have been criticized for their polling.

So if Love, Berg, and Allen mailed it in, assuming they'd win, then they were really bad candidates. As I said above, the candidates I've interacted with who were in competitive races all acted like they were a few points down. The only candidate I know who mailed it in, assuming he'd win easily, was Buck McKeon. He was lucky his electorate was still so Republican and his opponent was a nobody.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
What?
You said - "I'm sure Republican candidates projected an electorate where they'd win"

Why would you project an electorate where you win if you aren't actually ahead?

You need to project an electorate that's reflective of the district you are in. If that means you are down 20 points, you are down 20 points. If that means you are up 20 points, you are up 20 points. Most importantly, candidates need to have accurate information. If one is down 5 points in reality, then they can use their poll to find out how to get the race to a tie.

If Love conducts serious internal polling that shows her up 15 points the weekend before the election, shouldn't she think that she's ahead by 15 points? Why should she think she's actually down a few points? Should every candidate who's up 15 points or 20 or 25 or 30 actually assume that they are down a few points? She's hoping that her polling is accurate. Of course, this cycle, POS (along with many media Republicans) misjudged the state of the electorate.

Berg never acted like he was a few points down. He acted like he was up. He believed in his polling. Why shouldn't he? If it's the end of the campaign, his polling shouldn't it be off. So did George Allen and likely other Republican candidates.  


[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen; Tom Kean Jr. the favorite to get potential Christie appointment
http://www.politickernj.com/62...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Pelosi goes to Hollywood to raise cash on the false hope that she be speaker again in 2015
http://m.hollywoodreporter.com...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Menendez pushed for Melgen to get contract
for port security in the DR. http://www.nbcnewyork.com/inve...

R - MD-7

Drip, drip, drip
At this point I suppose it's just a question of whether he can hang on until May 12, or whether he'll be indicted first.

[ Parent ]
I don't think those are mutually exclusive.
I think if the prostitution allegations pan out, yes, he'll probably be forced into resigning.

But if he's indicted on charges that are corruption-related I think that there will be pressure from some Dem interests not to resign and let the seat fall into Republican hands. Ted Stevens didn't resign under indictment (or after conviction!), so there's precedent for Menendez to stay put. At the very least, if a resignation is inevitable, he'll time it such that the special election will occur in 2014 rather than 2013.

MA-08  


[ Parent ]
Booker
Does Booker run in 2013 if the seat opens up?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Yes
and Dems probably grudingly accept him too, as he's the only one that could oust a Sen. Kean with Christie on the ballot.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Vitter hung on too...
More precedent.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
I think that's different...
should the allegations be proven to be true. In terms of the seriousness of the crime, underage Dominican prostitutes >>> Vitter's situation.

Plus (correct me if I'm wrong) Vitter didn't have any other ethical issues compounding the questionable conduct; Menendez, by comparison, is a swamp creature.

MA-08  


[ Parent ]
agreed
It's a felony to travel to another country and have relations with underage persons, even if you are ignorant of their age.  That aspect of the story makes it worse than any of the other "DC Madam" Senators or politicians.

[ Parent ]
Louisana
Also in Louisiana, a politician having high end prostitutes is not a bad thing careerwise.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Would it be to our advantage if he makes it to May 12 or not?
NT

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
I'd prefer him to resign before
That would put the special election on this November's ballot, which will be led by Christie. Whatever coattails he has will help our nominee.

[ Parent ]
True
It would help our Senate appointee. I had read an article suggesting NJ Democrats would want the Senate election this year as to have a top-ticket race to drive Democrats to the polls and save the downticket Democrats.

Even if it did save the Democrats slightly downticket, I'd much prefer a US Senate seat.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
No
If he goes before may 12 the special will be in november, so you'll have lower turnout plus christie's coatails, so an R win could be very possible. If he's forced out after may 12 the special is at the midterms, where it will be very hard for any R to win.

17, Scotland, Left winger

[ Parent ]
Remember though
that the Republican up in the midterms will have had a year+ of incumbency. If Booker runs in 2013 Christie's coattails won't matter that much; it's still a Likely D at best race. If Booker is running for Class II and a Republican incumbent is facing Lautenberg or Pallone for Class I it's a winnable race.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
I'm not sure any republican (bar maybe Christie- although its to soon to tell) can win New jersey in a midterm barring very very favourable conditions. Also I'm not convinced that appointed incumbency is the same as actually winning an election. Do we have any examples of appointed incumbents besides Heller in the recent past?

17, Scotland, Left winger

[ Parent ]
Gillibrand and Bennet
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Christie won in 2009
Same number of voters approximately to Menendez/Kean in 2006. It's D+5 state. The GOP can win, but the Democrats are certainly favored.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Responses
Firstly to merrimackman, I think its difficult to compare gubernatorial and senatorial races because people are far more willing to split tickets in the gubernatorial ones- we just have to look at Freudenthal and Douglas for proof. Having said that I agree that in a good year with a great candidate and a useless D Rs could win it.

And to shamlet, thanks for the list but I'm not sure if any of them are really like a NJ situation- the only one I can think of where the appointee was running in a hostile state without any other factors is Heller.

17, Scotland, Left winger


[ Parent ]
Yes Senate elections are more partisan
Didn't know you were referring to that specifically.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Sorry
Didn't make that clear.

17, Scotland, Left winger

[ Parent ]
I think 2014 special would be better for the GOP
If there is a 2013 special we will have a Senator Booker in Nov. Booker running for Senate will drive Dem turnout in 2013 and hurt Christie and the GOP's attempt to ride his coattails in the State legislative races.

2014 special gives Senator Tom Kean Jr a full year of incumbency. It creates 2 senate elections in 2014 allowing Lautenberg to run for re-election. You could have a Geraldo vs Booker race and a Kean vs Lautenberg race plus a lot of bloody Dem primaries all around for the 2 senate seats! To me that's the GOP's best hope of keeping 1 NJ senate seat.


[ Parent ]
Ensign
On June 16, 2009, John Ensign admitted that he had an affair. The scandal got worse after that, but the didn't resign from the senate until April 21, 2011. These things often move quickly in the House, but not so much in the senate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
When Ensign admitted his affair
There was no criminal wrongdoing or corruption--just ethical issues since it involved his staff. The allegations against Menendez are more serious.

[ Parent ]
Actually there was a lot of criminal wrongdoing
Actually 3 days after Ensign admitted the affair,  Ensign issued a statement that said, "within the past month, Doug Hampton's legal counsel made exorbitant demands for cash and other financial benefits on behalf of his client."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

In January 2010, Politico reported the FBI was investigating.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Ensign hung on until 2011 and only resigned when he realized that he couldn't raise money and there was no way he could win re-election.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
no matter what Booker probably ends up in the Menendez seat
If he resigns. Lautenberg either then stays or leaves, knowing that he wasn't pushed out by Booker, who he dislikes.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It's funny that...
Since Bradley left, every pair of Senators from NJ have not really gotten along at all, and some have really hated each other. States with split delegations have more love than NJ:
Torricelli/Lautenberg
Corzine/Torricelli
Lautenberg/Corzine
Lautenberg/Menendez

[ Parent ]
Electronic Poll Books
http://www.observer-reporter.c...

I have never seen these before.  Has anyone used them?

28, Republican, PA-6


Menendez is also deeply corrupt
http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Gallup conservative and liberal states
http://www.gallup.com/poll/160...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Bolling moves further to the left
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Tobias said Bolling's endorsement of Medicaid expansion fits the middle-of-the-road Republican profile that the lieutenant governor is trying to establish while positioning himself as a possible independent candidate.

Since VA governors only get 1 term, he doesn't have the problem that LePage and Chafee are now having trying to get re-elected.

28, R, PA-07.


If Bolling keeps moving to the left
and runs as Independent in the governor's race, he will pull more votes from McAuliffe than from Cuccinelli. Even now that he isn't that centrist yet, many pollings suggest that he will pull almost the same percentage from McAuliffe and Cuccinelli.

[ Parent ]
Energy Sec. Chu out
As expected. http://www.politico.com/story/...

R - MD-7

MA-Sen; This doesn't give me a good feeling about him getting in the senate race
@jm_dc: RT @WuWCVB: Scott Brown tells WCVB he will put out a statement @ 1 pm today. #masen #wcvb #mapoli

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Not running


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
link?
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Sources quoted in media


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Stephen Lynch, unions, and the healthcare vote
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

PA-07's PVI... drumroll please!
 photo ScreenShot2013-02-01at11715PM_zpsc752e04a.png

Its 2012 PVI was R+1.96.

(1.96+4.57)/2=3.265.

PA-07's PVI is R+3.265, but it was R+2 in 2008 and R+5 in 2012 when you round.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


R+5
You mean Berks not Bucks, but the point remains that even without the heavy gerrymandered arm into eastern Lancaster and southern Berks this would a Republican district.  They are just icing on the cake.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PA-07
Just so no one else does for whatever reason, I'm compiling Meehan/Romney data for every township in PA-07 and will be writing a PA-07 analysis.

Sneak preview: DelCo is becoming hugely problematic but Meehan does quite well in the areas trending D.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Impressive that Romney won the slice of MontCo
The best precincts in the county are in PA-08 and PA-06 has many of the better R areas as well. Winning back central Montgomery is a good sign for our future viability in PA. But, of course, we were winning this area by big margins back in the 80's.

[ Parent ]
Your Delaware County numbers
http://election.co.delaware.pa...

I calculated the numbers off this website in November and came up with Obama winning 92,511 to 85,812. The county total was 171,792 to 110,853. That would mean the PA-1 numbers would be 75,619 to 4,609. John Featherman got 3,101 in Upper Darby alone.

Are you sure about your numbers?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
See below
In my haste to get to lunch after tabulating all of those numbers, I accidentally reversed the Romney/Obama '12 DelCo numbers in the final addition of all of the numbers.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Correction to my PA-07 numbers
I had accidentally reversed the Romney/Obama '12 numbers in DelCo... My prior PVI seemed too good to be true because of demographic changes in DelCo, and it looks like my instinct was right. Anyway...

Obama '12 nationwide (two way)=51.96%

Obama '12 in PA-07 (two way)=49.30%

51.96-49.30=R+2.66 in '12

Obama '08 nationwide (two way)=53.69%

Obama '08 in PA-07 (two way)=51.73%.

53.69-51.73=R+1.96

PVI Calculation:

(2.66+1.96)/2=R+2.31

I guess PA-07 is R+2, when rounded.

 photo ScreenShot2013-02-01at22544PM_zps77b43b67.png

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Delco Splits
Delco has five split townships/cities, Chester, Glenolden, Ridley, Upper Darby, and Tinicum. Those five are Obama 49,165 to 22,092. Excluding those five, the splits are:

PA-1: Obama 38,547 to 10,557
PA-7: Obama 84,080 to 78,204

Do you have the splits?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Yes
I drove to Media, requested them, paid for them, got them sent to me, and uploaded them into my spreadsheet.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
What are the splits?
nt

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Check your email.


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
One final error
Due to a spreadsheet error that WMayes' sheet caught, it turns out Obama got 49.04 and not 49.30, so I suppose the seat was R+2.92 in 2012 but the R+2.44 figure composite still rounds to R+2. I double-checked the precinct by precinct data I uploaded and it's all correct, so I was just having some spreadsheet issues. :)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Final chart
Sorry for being a little sloppy, I was up late working on a physics problem set and didn't get all that much sleep last night.

 photo ScreenShot2013-02-01at25708PM_zps64d21170.png

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Crawford county resulst, PA03 and PA05

Crawford county
PA03
Obama   12970
Romney  19799
other          573
http://www.crawfordcountypa.ne...
PA05
obama    913
Romney 1102
other 31

pluggint the figures into KOss

https://docs.google.com/...

PA03
Obama   43.05%
Romney  55.60%

PA05
Obama   43.76%
Romney  60.26%

by Joe Cooper on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 03:41:13 PM PST

[ Parent | Reply to this ]  


[ Parent ]
SC-SEN, GOV: State Senator Tom Davis Out

http://www.islandpacket.com/2013/02/01/2363808/sen-tom-davis-will-not-run-for.html

"State Sen. Tom Davis, R-Beaufort, said today Friday he will not run for U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat or any statewide office in 2014, including governor. 

"I'd be lying if I said it wasn’t tempting (to run for Graham’s seat,)" Davis said. "But when you get right down to it and realize you have a limited amount of time, a limited amount of energy, and you sit down and figure out where you can make the most difference, it’s a clear-cut decision. I can make far more of an impact in the (state) Senate."



libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

Graham will cruise
Wow. If you had suggested that to me even a year ago I would have told you you were crazy.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
He learned all the right lessons
From his good friend McCain.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Nice Pun
At first, I was tempted to say that he also learned a good deal from Orrin Hatch, but the convention style required lots and lots more of groundwork, then taking a turn to the right, I suppose.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Keep an eye on State Senator Lee Bright
He may be interested in running with Davis out.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
IL-Gov
Yuk. Brady interested in another bid. http://capitolfax.com/2013/02/...

R - MD-7

Any thoughts
on who the strongest GOP nominee could be there?

Brady? Schock? Walsh (yeah, kidding :P)

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
Personally I favor Rutherford
But I think there can be legitimate differences of opinion here - Rutherford, Schock, Dillard, and maybe even Rauner should all be viable.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Rutherford
Rutherford is our strongest candidate for Treasurer in 2014. If he decides to run for governor instead of re-election, he is more likely to cause Republicans to lose all state-wide offices in 2014 than get elected governor.

[ Parent ]
Strongest GOP Nom
For IL-GOV would be Rutherford or Dold.

Rutherford for GOV and Dold for SEN if Durbin retires is the best bet for you guys IMO.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Fun fact
Now that her resignation if is official, for the first time since January 1982, neither of the Clintons holds elected or appointed office.

27, Female, R; D.C. resident; formerly PA-07 and PA-18; originally from old MD-06 (new MD-08)

Not quite
it also happened for 39 days in 1992; Clinton resigned the governorship early to prep his transition.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
have you ever considered being on Jeopardy
or is your random facts knowledge limited to politics?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Seriously
We should start an RRH petition to send shamlet on Jeopardy, and then take 10% of his winnings.

[ Parent ]
I'm good with Politics, Geography, and Science
World History I'm decent but not amazing by any stretch, and I'm not great at all with Literature and Pop Culture. I have actually thought about trying out for Jeopardy on occasion, but I never really had the wherewithal to go through with it.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I'm strong with Politics, Geography, and History
and a few other categories. I'm comparatively weak on others such as Literature and current Pop Culture(I'm better at older stuff). I'm really good at trivia in general and I've had people tell me for years I should be on Jeopardy(I'm a big fan of the show too), but as I've discovered while taking the online test that being strong in a few categories while weak on others isn't good enough-you need to have a broader spectrum of knowledge. I've never done bad on the test, but never good enough to get an invite to a contestant search. I won't hear whether for a few months yet whether I made a contestant search this year, but I'm not real confident.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I can see the headline
"Politics geek uses Jeopardy winnings to pay for polls of House races across the nation"

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
That would be awesome
But would only pay for a handful of polls sadly lol.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Also
I don't think "PA Reps from the 1960s" or "Famous Left-handed Senators" would be a common enough category to win.

I sorta wish it was though.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
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