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The Current RRH Race Ratings:
Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST
| NYC Mayor: RIP Ed Koch, who passed away around 2:00 AM. I'll leave the obituary to this lengthy write-up in the New York Times.
New Mexico: Former Governor (R) and 2016 Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is rebooting his non-profit, the Our America Initiative. It now appears he will not completely abandon politics, as he publicly speculated about previously. He has not yet ruled out a run for Senate as a Republican.
Iowa: Rep. Bruce Braley told Iowa reporters he is meeting with Senators Reid and Bennett, the Senate Majority Leader and head of the DSCC respectively, about a run for Senator Harkin's seat in 2014, making a run seem pretty darn likely at this point.
New Jersey: New Jersey politics is just plain strange. Now we have the Geraldo Rivera "truly contemplating" a run for US Senate in New Jersey as a Republican. Well, he could self-fund at least. If anyone's counting, you have the Menendez story and the whole problem with bankers buying elections and... well, it's colorful.
Georgia: She was mentioned as a possibility yesterday, but now Atlanta Dream co-owner Kelly Loeffler is saying that while she has a "strong interest in politics," running for public office is "not something I have envisioned." She did not rule out a run for office in the future (she is only 42).
More Iowa: Harper Polling moves into Iowa. The general election numbers are interesting (Rep. Steve King trails Braley 34-39, but Rep. Tom Latham leads 36-33), but I find the primary match-ups even more fascinating. In a head-to-head, King easily bests Latham 46-29, but throw in other candidates like social conservative Bob Vander Plaats and libertarian Drew Ivers and the race narrows to 31-26-16 with King on top and Latham and Vander Plaats trailing.
Minnesota: After a rout in the 2012 elections, some Minnesota Republicans organized an event entitled, "Where do we go from here?" Attendees returned to their cars with flyers advertising an effort to Draft Tom Emmer. Interestingly, the Treasurer of the effort is Tom Coulter, Emmer's former bodyman and driver, and the Chair is State Rep. Doug Wardlow.
Virginia: Former DNC Chair and gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is reportedly "good friends" with Salomon Melgen. If you don't know who Melgen is, he is involved with the mess involving Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and his activities in the Dominican Republic.
Arizona: The usual "What if Mark Kelly ran for office?!?" article. We've seen these before, and it is true he moved with his wife, Rep. Gabby Giffords (D) to Tucson (from his home in League City, TX) five months ago. But the big thing missing is any willingness from the potential candidate, who is busy working on his new pro gun control super PAC, Americans for Responsible Solutions.
Rhode Island: PPP polls a bunch of permutations of the Rhode Island gubernatorial race.Some notes:
- Moderate Party candidate Ken Block (who has run for office several times before) polls between 8-16% in every potential four-way race.
- Republicans Allen Fung and Brendan Doherty have strong approval ratings (55/14 and 45/32, respectively), but Democrats Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras' are stronger (57/21 and 63/21).
- Voters are not fans of Governor Lincoln Chafee (I). He trails the Republican and Democratic candidates in every race he is tested in, whether as a Democrat or Independent, and his approval ratings are pretty poor at 33/59.
- In a race with Chafee and another Democratic nominee, the margins are close for a Republican (32% for Raimondo, 28% for Doherty, 22% for Chafee and 8% for Block in one permutation) but weaker without the incumbent governor (44% for Raimondo, 32% for Doherty and 10% for Block).
More Rhode Island: Former Rep. Bob Weygand (D) is considering a run for Governor. Interestingly, Weygand is pro-life in stridently Democratic Rhode Island, which has a large number of relatively socially conservative Catholics. The article also has a useful rundown of who is in or out halfway into it.
Connecticut: State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney (R) told a local news station that he is "unofficially" announcing his run for Governor. The conventional wisdom has been that the nomination is 2010 candidate Tom Foley's if he wants it, and he already plans to run.
AL-05: Former Rep. Parker Griffth (D then R) sat down to basically let loose on everything he could think about regarding Alabama and national politics.
IA-01: If Rep. Bruce Braley (D) runs for US Senate, State Rep. Pat Murphy (D) is "definitely interested." I would encourage him not to run, not due to his partisan affiliation but his name. We already have former Rep. Pat Murphy (D-PA) and Rep. Pat Murphy (D-FL). This will start being like Andersons in Minnesota!
CT-05: Former State Rep. Brian Flaherty (R) is interested in a bid for Congress.He seems to be a moderate-ish candidate in the mold of Andrew Roraback, who ran in 2012 and narrowly lost to now-Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D).
Secretary of Defense: By all accounts, former Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) bombed his confirmation hearing yesterday. At one point, he claimed to support the Obama administration's policy of containment towards Iran, but recanted when he received a note informing him the Obama administration did not have a policy of containment and therefore did not support it. Anyway, it does not seem likely this will prevent his confirmation.
Secretary of Labor: Colorado Lt. Gov. Joe Garcia (D) is a top candidate to become Secretary of Labor.
LA Mayor: A poll from Survey USA finds four candidates in double-digits: City Councilman Eric Garcetti at 24%, City Controller Wendy Greuel at 20%, City Councilwoman Jan Perry (the only black candidate) at 15%, and Republican Kevin James at 12%.
OH Treasurer: Treasurer Josh Mandel, last seen coming off of a loss in his bid for US Senate in 2012, is running for re-election in 2014.
MA GOP: Former Scott Brown aide Kristen Hughes defeated Rick Green to become Chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party. The vote had been cast as a division between establishment and grassroots types, even if the situation was nearly as divisive as that seen in places like Alaska and Nevada. The vote was narrow, 41-39 on a second ballot, and Green will become her deputy chair.
| Daniel Surman :: Political Roundup for February 1st, 2013