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MA-Sen: Brown Will Not Run

by: shamlet

Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 13:01:48 PM EST


bqhatevwr. Sen. Scott Brown will not seek a return to DC in the Special election. It is unclear as of yet whether he will still explore a gubernatorial run or if he is finished with politics entirely.  

Now it looks like it's time for ex-Gov. Bill Weld, who has just moved back into the state and gone on a full out-media blitz, to jump in. Other speculated options if Weld declines are State Rep. Dan Winslow (R-Norfolk), ex-State Sen. Richard Tisei (R-Wakefield), former LG Kerry Kealey of Beverly, TV Psychologist Kieth Ablow of Newbury, and former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez.

UPDATE: Here's Brown's statement. It sounds like he's leaving the door wide open for a 2014 gubernatorial bid.

"Over these past few weeks I have given serious thought about the possibility of running again, as events have created another vacancy requiring another special election. I have received a lot of encouragement from friends and supporters to become a candidate, and my competitive instincts were leading in the same direction.

"Even so, I was not at all certain that a third Senate campaign in less than four years, and the prospect of returning to a Congress even more partisan than the one I left, was really the best way for me to continue in public service at this time. And I know it's not the only way for me to advance the ideals and causes that matter most to me.

"That is why I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for the United States Senate in the upcoming special election."

shamlet :: MA-Sen: Brown Will Not Run
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Huh???
What does "bqhatevwr." mean?

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

What Brown Drunk-Tweeted a couple days ago
a misspelling of "whatever".

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
is this official?
Its not on his facebook page just a close "source" told Herald.


[ Parent ]
Terrible
It's his choice, and I respect that. But that's a Senate seat that could have been in play, and now lies in the hands of the Democrats. Hopefully Lynch will pull it out in the primary, otherwise we might have gone from Kerry and Kennedy to an even more liberal set of Senators.

I hope this means at the very least, he will run for Governor next year.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


If he runs for Governor
this is really all for the best. Brown is far better suited to be Governor anyway, we'll have a good time with Weld, and can direct resources to cheaper and easier Senate seats elsewhere.  

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Brown must have feared he would lose again....
I thought Weld will run.

Kerry Healey?


Oops
*I DOUBT Weld will run.

[ Parent ]
If you fear losing...
You don't run for anything. The list of people who have lost multiple elections and run again is long.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
True, but it might have been two election losses in quick succession
nt

[ Parent ]
If he wanted the seat, he'd run for it
Senate seats don't come open often and you don't get to choose when. So he's making a decision that he doesn't want to be in the senate in the near future. The chance that he'll lose likely doesn't come in play, especially when he's leading in all the polls that have been conducted.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Can anyone find the statement?
nt

R - MD-7

Still hunting for the statement...
Help?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I can't find it
I guess it hasn't been released yet? Or maybe whatever he said at the D'Angelo in Milford was the statement?

[ Parent ]
I suppose his statement was
"I'm not running for Senate. I've decided to focus more on my lunch right now."

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't be surprised
His behavior for the last month has been pretty unusual--folksy even by his standards. I have to wonder if he really is done with politics, at least in the short-to-medium term.

[ Parent ]
I'm seeing Lynch's statement and not Brown's
Yeesh.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Link and Tweet
http://www.politico.com/story/...

Janet Wu ‏@WuWCVB
Scott Brown leaving Milford's D'Angelo's:"my statement speaks for itself"when asked why not running #MAsen #MApoli #breaking

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Thank God
I would have hated it to see him being wasted in a special election ... Scott Brown for Governor in 2014!

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

What?
He'd have had a better shot in a special election than in a general election.

(which doesn't mean he can't win in 2014, but I think his better shot was here).


[ Parent ]
That's an unusual argument
I think his odds were about the same vis-a-vis Senate or Governor, as turnout differential is cancelled out by the state/national advantage of the Governorship.  

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Possibly.
Other variables to consider:
What's the half-life of Brown's popularity being out of the Senate?
Odds that Democrats run a better/worse candidate than Markey for Governor?

[ Parent ]
Answers
Pols generally tend to get more popular out of office.

At this point the nomination is Grossman's to lose; I consider him about the same quality as Markey, maybe marginally better.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I do agree that their favorability ratings might well increase
I'm not so sure their electability does. See, for instance, Rick Hill. Memories get weaker-- I'm sure Phil Bredesen would probably be competitive in a open seat Senate bid now. Would he in 2020? Same for Dave Freudenthal, to look at a state that isn't really trending.

I don't think there's really enough data to back this up, just a feeling.  


[ Parent ]
2 years is very different than 12
The countering effect is that you lose total name rec, and the ability to run a modern campaign from being out of office. That effect starts to take hold at about 5 years.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Popularity
Linda Lingle left office unpopular and then managed to finish further ahead of Romney than any Republican incumbent did. Tommy Thompson got the nomination through residual popularity.

Losing can really do wonders for popularity. George H.W. Bush wasn't popular with Republicans when in office, but when he lost to the hated Bill Clinton he became the elder statesman who got a raw deal.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Of course
By "unpopular" you mean her approval rating was underwater, and she scored 37% (below her approval rating, which never dropped below 41%.) That's not an impressive performance, it's a fairly bad performance from a member of the state Republican party, designed to appeal to HI, which the national Republican party decidedly isn't. If she performed above her previous approval rating, that would be significant. But it's apples to oranges to measure her performance against Romney.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
What if Mitt ran?
Romney won't be running, of course, but this Tweet from Geoffrey Skelley of UVa got me thinking

Geoffrey Skelley ‏@geoffreyvs
Romney could follow Nixon path, lose a pres race then another lower race 2 years later (Nixon pres '60, CA gov '62)

Romney was monumentally bad in Massachusetts in 2012. Not only was there no home state bump, the PVI actually went from D+9.5 to D+9.8. (Strangely Romney got a big bump in Obama's home state.)

A senate race is different from a Presidential race. Mitt would be regarded as a star candidate, due to his stature. How do you think he'd do against Ed Markey?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


He would lose by 20 points n/t


MA-08  

[ Parent ]
If not more
I can't imagine a worse candidate than Mitt for this seat. (Excluding Jack E. Robinson, perhaps.)

[ Parent ]
Scott Lively!
there's your worse candidate.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Horribly
Romney is Generic National R in this state now. Literally anyone would do better than him.

My list in order of preference:
Weld
Mary Connaughton
Tisei
Dan Winslow
Tarr
Hedlund
Healey
Polito
Vinny DeMacedo
Keith Ablow
That random marine we heard about yesterday
Frank Cousins
Romney

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
How about getting Lynch to switch parties?
A pro-life/anti-Obamacare Democrat might as well become a Republican for this contest vs. Markey

[ Parent ]
It would never happen
But it would be one heck of an interesting turn of events. Lynch is liberal enough that the party base would be PO'ed, but the party base isn't that big and if you can convince every other name candidate to stay out he's not going to lose to a Some Dude in the primary.

A more viable option would be leaving the R line blank (which the state GOP is excellent at doing!) and supporting an independent Lynch bid. But that won't happen either. Weld or bust.


[ Parent ]
It would be extremely difficult for Lynch to run on the GOP ticket
The deadline to switch parties was December 6th of last year.  He still could run for the Republican nomination, but would have to do so as a write-in and would need at least 10,000 votes, (and more than anyone else of course).

http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele...

Interestingly, Lynch could potentially win both nominations if he pursued this route, though that's even less likely.


30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
Peter Welch did that in Vermont in 2008
I don't believe he was trying to. The GOP didn't field a candidate and he got the most write-in votes.

I do believe, however, that it's not too late for Lynch to file as an independent. But doing so would effectively end his career in the House.


[ Parent ]
He can't run as an independent either
Non-party candidates for U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative, state senator and state representative cannot have been enrolled in any party during the entire 90 days preceding the deadline for filing nomination papers with the Secretary of the Commonwealth.

http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele...

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
Ah, thanks, I misread that one
I had interpreted it as 90 days before the election, so March 25.

[ Parent ]
Jane Swift
Ryan Fattman. Brad Jones. Tim Cruz. Keiko Orrall. The list goes on.

[ Parent ]
That random marine we heard about yesterday
whoever that is

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
Name is Gabriel Gomez
and he is a former Navy SEAL. Know nothing else about him.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
He would get clobbered
He had to really pronounce his more Conservative view points in his 08 and 12 runs so his moderate luster is pretty much all gone.

I think if it was Romney vs. Markey, It would likely be a 56-43 affair.  Give or take a few points.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Bill Weld
don't know about running him because he feel like he would be the GOP Vision of Bob Kerry

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


Tweet on Brown
James Hohmann ‏@jameshohmann
Confirmed: Scott Brown not running. Just got his statement, in which he leaves the door wide open to a 2014 run for governor.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Senator vs Governor
I wish Brown was running for Senator. Even if he wins a Gubernatorial race in 2014 it doesn't mean a fig for the patheticly weak Massachusetts GOP. Massachusetts is a Democrat state and a Governor Brown can't change that. A Republican vote from Massachusetts in the US Senate is far more important in advancing a conservative agenda than having a Republican Governor from an overwhelming Democrat state.
 With regards to the Senate race, if the nominee isn't Weld, Richard Tisei, or Charlie Baker then we might as well not even try to win. No one else would have a prayer.

Less power
but it's ultimately a far better fit for him. Brown is a little thinker. I see him as the kind of Governor that can push through a lot of common-sense measures that have been stalled by the legislature - cracking down on sex offenders, reforming the fraud-riddled welfare system, and flushing most of Deval's hacks out of the state Government. And I think that is a far more rewarding - both personally and politically - pursuit for him than trying to constantly play the game of horse trading in the Senate.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Deval's hacks
As of today, we have one in Washington too. I really can't believe how little pushback he's gotten for appointing a thoroughly unqualified crony for a four-month term during which there will be several critical votes. As much as I dislike Barney Frank, he would have at least contributed something while in office.

[ Parent ]
We all said the same thing back in 2009
when all the big named GOP candidates passed on running in the special to fill the remainder of Ted Kennedy's term and the MA GOP was left with a little known state senator named Brown to take on the very popular AG.

[ Parent ]
Brown's statement
Link: http://boston.com/community/bl...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Regarding a possible gubernatorial bid
Even so, I was not at all certain that a third Senate campaign in less than four years, and the prospect of returning to a Congress even more partisan than the one I left, was really the best way for me to continue in public service at this time. And I know it's not the only way for me to advance the ideals and causes that matter most to me.

(Italics are mine.)

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Tisei people making calls
Or so I hear

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


I'd like that ...
His chances of winning are slim (name recognition), but Tisei would be a good match for MA ... I wonder if the MSM would ever mention that he's a "gay Republican".

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
I am not sure his odds are worse here than in a rematch
A Senate race would play to his strengths. A higher profile race would place a higher premium on media support, a national fundraising network, and the ability to attract attention.

Tisei would not want for money, which is not something that can be said of some of the other B and C choices. And its what probably puts him ahead of Winslow, who has perhaps more upside in the long-run, but is less likely to pull it off in five months.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Tisei vs Lynch!
I think peoples heads would explode if that's the match up. Gay pro-choice Republican vs Pro-life social Conservative Dem with a mix record on gay rights issues!

[ Parent ]
Hence why I'd love it to happen
nt

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Rep. Shauna O'Connell...
...would be a terrific candidate but she's fairly green(just into her second term). Give her some time and she will rise to the top of the MA GOP heap.
I'm disappointed but not surprised with Brown's decision. The last campaign was very rough on his family and they were not relishing the thought of another one this year, and potentially ANOTHER one next year.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

Rothenberg moves the race to Safe Democratic
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

I think that's extreme, as it indicates the Republican candidate has no shot. Brown's win wasn't an electoral fluke. Yes, he was a great candidate who ran a great campaign and Martha Coakley ran a bad one. In 2012, however, Brown ran in a good Democratic year and lost to a much better candidate, Elizabeth Warren, by 7.6%.

Of course, Brown isn't running now, but we need to remember that Scott Brown was a nobody before he won. He certainly isn't the only candidate capable of running a good campaign. And it wasn't Scott Brown casting million of votes. It was the citizens of Massachusetts. The electorate in June is likely to be closer to January 2010 than November 2012.

I'd rate the race as Likely Democratic, pending polling, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that a Republican could win the race. If they can put together Scott Brown's campaign operation they can turn out the voters. Then all they need to do is sell them on the Republican candidate.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Safe D is the right call
until there's some reason to think otherwise. If I'm not mistaken, no Republican has even filed to run yet, or did the random Marine file?

Anyway, if some unknown nobody actually shows signs of making the race competitive, then the rating can be changed. Until then, all indications point toward Safe D.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
I see it in the reverse
If we knew who the Republican nominee was, and he was underwhelming, then Safe Democratic. There are Republicans who can mount a challenge and they haven't said anything yet.

This is a state that elected a no name Republican in a special three years ago. It's not Vermont or Hawaii where there hasn't been a Republican elected to the senate in some time.

Let's face it. Ed Markey isn't some powerhouse incumbent. He's run an underwhelming campaign so far. It's a lot more Martha Coakley than Elizabeth Warren. His website is a placeholder. People at Blue Mass Group have heard nothing on the ground.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Yeah
The GOP needs two big breaks to win - First, we need a good, or at least decent candidate. Second, we need the Dem to run a very bad campaign. That's pretty much my definition of a Likely D race.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
2010 Gubernatorial Election
Of course gubernatorial and senate elections are different, because people value competency more in the former and ideology in the latter. That said, Charlie Baker lost by 6 points against a good candidate who was an incumbent in a mid-term. Markey's statewide skill is unknown but the electorate should be as favorable as you can get in Massachusetts. The short time between the bruising? Democratic primary and the general is a big advantage.

I agree Republicans need a good candidate who runs a good campaign, but the Democrat doesn't need to be that bad.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I think they have it right
I'd go with Likely D at minimum, but considering Markeys polling advantage over Lynch and how much money he has, he is formidable right now, although I will admit he has looked lazy so far.

Until Republicans nominate someone, and we see how they can do, I think Safe D is fine.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I think Likely D is more appropriate
Again, take this with a grain of salt, but nobody I spoke with today on Beacon Hill thinks Weld or Healey will make the plunge. Tisei, on the other hand, is a real possibility and with him, I suspect it's only a Lean D affair. From what I hear, Gomez could be a disaster on the level of Ablow.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Lean D?
I think if Tisei is a rating changer its form Likely D to Lean D.  He couldn't beat Tierney regardless of the campaign Tierney won.  I don't think Tisei ran a bad race or anything but I think 2012 proved hes no Scott Brown.  I would be mildly worried Tisei might catch on especially against a possibly weakened Lazy Markey, but I don't think hes a rating changer.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I agree
He lost the most GOP district in the state--and also the district for which he is the best cultural fit--despite Brown carrying it comfortably in an 8-point statewide loss. How does that translate to a statewide win?

[ Parent ]
Wow
I butchered that first sentence.  I meant to say...I think IF Tisei is a rating changer (Which I do not think he is) it would be from Safe D to Likely D, not Likely to Lean.  

BP still understood me thankfully, but in case anyone else doesn't lol.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Richard Tisei says he won't run for U.S. Senate
http://bostonherald.com/news_o...

I'm going to stick to what I wanted to do


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Hope this means Weld is sending out feelers
If not him, it looks like Dan Winslow.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Looks like it will be Weld or bust for the GOP.


[ Parent ]
There's always the possibility of a surprise
but yeah, I'm really stacking my chips on Weld now. I hope his total silence since Friday, combined with Tisei's abrupt exit after a seemingly very serious mini-exploration, is an indication that he's in.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Pretty much
Besides Weld (and Brown and Tisei), I'm not convinced any other Massachusetts Republican could stand a prayer in this one. I think even Healey would be basically DOA.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Heard anything this weekend?
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Only one curious thing
I was chatting earlier today with a pal I worked with over at Romney HQ. He said over the past couple of weeks, he'd been in touch with someone "high up" from Brown's 2012 campaign and this person was entirely convinced Brown was prepared to enter the race, so much so that he accepted my friend's resume for a potential job.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
MA-06: Down with tyranny...
Down with tyrrany, down with Tierney. I'm glad Richard Tisei is stayinh out of the Senate race. I smell a rematch on the Nawth Shaw all the way from where I'm posting this in Center City, Philadelphia.  

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
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