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Senate

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Political Roundup for February 4, 2013

by: BostonPatriot

Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Senate

AK-Sen: Sen. Mark Begich (D) starts his re-election bid in a surprisingly strong spot, trailing only popular Gov. Sean Parnell (46-40), while leading Mead Treadwell (44-34) and Joe Miller (52-29). Parnell leads a hypothetical primary, with Miller taking only 12% (although Sarah Palin is listed as an option and takes 27%). In short, Parnell looks like a slam dunk, but a generic R like Treadwell would seem to have a path to victory.

GA-Sen: Rep. Tom Price raised $250K last week, a tea leaf suggesting he could enter this race soon. His $1.6M in the bank is significantly more than the other two Rep.'s who have expressed interest--Paul Broun ($156K) and Lynn Westmoreland ($425K), but is less than Phil Gingrey's $1.9M.

More GA-Sen: Rep. Jack Kingston of the southern 1st has been quiet, but his team has been making calls and now an ally tells the press that he's "98% sure" Kingston will run for Senate. The article quotes a Georgia political analyst who expects as many as 7 big-name Republicans in the primary.

IA-Sen: An early look at this race from Harper has Steve King starting as the favorite in the GOP primary, and Bruce Braley leading King but trailing Tom Latham (with no one breaking 40 in any matchup). Of course, a lot will depend on who actually runs.

MA-Sen: St. Rep. Dan Winslow (R), who holds Scott Brown's old seat, sounds like he's in. Winslow will announce his decision Tuesday, but his website refers to "details on a time and venue" that will be announced today. So unless he's holding an I'm-not-running rally...

More MA-Sen: Middlesex DA Gerry Leone (D), a fairly big name in the state's largest county, could jump in the Senate race, a surprising move after he announced last month he wouldn't seek another term as DA. Leone could consolidate the anti-DC vote...or give Steve Lynch an opening, as Leone's base overlaps with Ed Markey's.

NJ-Sen-A: Cory Booker hasn't been particularly gung-ho about gun control. While no friend of the NRA, Booker could conceivably be hurt by this issue in a primary against Frank Lautenberg or Frank Pallone. New Jersey's Democratic base is pretty anti-gun.

NJ-Sen-B: How was your weekend? Even if you're a 49ers fan, it was probably still better than Bob Menendez's. The questions about Menendez's relationship with Saloman Melgan and, er, relations with hookers continued to swirl, even as Harry Reid gave the Senator a weak vote of confidence.

Governor

CO-Gov: A look at this race finds Republicans very reluctant to take on popular Gov. John Hickenlooper (D). There was some hope in the state GOP that Hickenlooper would forgo re-election to focus on a 2016 presidential bid, but that now sounds very unlikely.

CT-Gov: The Republican leaders of the Senate and House, John McKinney and Lawrence Cafero, are both considering bids, with McKinney sounding particularly likely to get in. Tom Foley, who came close to Gov. Dan Malloy in 2010, is widely expected to run again.

IA-Gov: It's tough when you can't even come up with a reason why the incumbent governor should be booted, but that's the problem Iowa Dems are facing with Terry Branstad, who is modestly popular if not beloved. St. Sen. Jack Hatch is talking about running against Branstad on his refusal to embrace Obamacare. Good luck.

NE-Gov: Two new names linked to this race since our write-up on Saturday: Rep. Lee Terry (R), and St. Sen. Annette Dubas (D). Regarding Dubas, the thinking is: "Deb Fischer won as a stalwart conservative woman, so she could win as a stalwart liberal woman." No, I'm not kidding. (EDIT: Apparently the linked article is poorly researched. h/t GoBigRedState.)

SC-Gov, Sen: Tom Davis (R) will seek re-election to the State Senate, removing the last remaining in-party obstacle from the paths of Nikki Haley, Lindsey Graham, and Tim Scott.

VA-Gov: Bill Bolling is officially on-record as considering an independent bid. If he can make himself viable, it would be quite the political feat--past notable indies (Lincoln Chafee and Charlie Crist) started their races as the biggest name in the field, which Bolling is not.

House

CA-17: A big-money battle could be looming between Rep. Mike Honda and Obama staffer Ro Khanna. Honda has already rolled out endorsements from Obama and Nancy Pelosi, but Khanna isn't one to shy away from a tough race--he challenged popular Rep. Tom Lantos in a primary back in 2004.

CO-06: Andrew Romanoff (D), best known for coming within 8 points of Michael Bennet in the 2010 Senate primary, will run against Mike Coffman. This is one of only a handful of D+ districts under GOP control.

NY-11: NYC Councilor Domenic Recchia is thinking about a bid against Rep. Mike Grimm (R). Recchia is from Brooklyn, and is thus a tough sell in this Staten Island-based seat. Ex-Rep. Mike McMahon is also considering.

Miscellaneous

MO-LG: An excellent rundown of who could replace Peter Kinder (R) in this office if the incumbent gets the MO-08 nomination next weekend.

Crossroads: Why didn't donors think of this after 2010? Crossroads is launching the "Conservative Victory Fund," which is designed to strangle Akins, Angles, and O'Donnells in the crib (aka the early stages of a primary). Naturally, the groups that promote these candidates are upset.

BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for February 4, 2013
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VA-gov
I don't think Bolling's path to victory would look anything like Chaffee 2010. His best bet is trying for a Ventura 98 strategy of "pox on both your houses" type of 33.4% victory.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Agree
He cannot just hit Republicans to be a viable candidate.  He will need to get out there and start hitting both parties hard.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
He'll need Cuccinelli and McOlef to both make themselves totally unappealing.
Virginia loves its pragmatic moderates. If McOlef looks like a hack and Cuccinelli looks like an extremist, Bolling may have a path. Or he may just end up splitting right-leaning voters and handing the governor's office to McOlef.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Quick question
I guess I never understood the rood cause of spelling McAuliffe's name in a Scandinavian hybridization. What is that from?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
root cause*


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
AJNolte uses voice-converting software to type
McAuliffe apparently comes out as McOlef. He's not doing it intentionally.

[ Parent ]
Pretty much.
Because I am totally blind, I use screen-reading software which reads things word by word. Consequently, I usually have to guess at spelling. In my screen-reading software, McOlef and McAulif come out sounding similar. (and if you think that's bad, imagine trying to write about  Hermin Kain/Cain,, Evan Bai/Bayh and, my personal favorite, ILGov candidate Adam Andrhzejewski--which I'm told is actually pronounced An-ji-ev-ski--I never did quite get the hang of that one...).  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
I did know that
Thank you for the clarification.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
As has been discussed
AJ is blind and must use a translator to get his posts onto this site.  This causes some typos, and the Terry Mac one is common.
I'm not going to start the "there's no such thing as a root causes, all causes are root causes" though!

[ Parent ]
MA-SEN Tagg Romney Mulling
As per Politico

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Too Soon
NT

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Proxy vote for dad
Too many voters will reject this candidacy out of hand. At least with an unknown they don't start off planning to stay home/vote against  

[ Parent ]
Especially
Less than a year after his dad got 38%. He may have a future in politics, but he needs to let things cool off, and probably move to NH.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Why not Utah?
The Romney name seems to be worth more there than anywhere else.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Although was out the Romney name itself, or was it just the fact that a Mormon with Utah ties was the first candidate of that religion nationwide?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I think Mitt had particularly strong pull there
Some polls taken right around the time Huntsman announced showed that Romney would have crushed him in a one-on-one primary. Being the first Mormon nominee certainly helped, but I think the Romney name is particularly golden in Utah.

[ Parent ]
That would work too
I was just throwing out the typical Mass suggestion of moving north.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Not running


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
MA-SEN Weld Out
Per Twitter.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Conservative victory fund.
I'm cool with getting rid of the Angles Akins and Mourdocks, so long as we don't see them also attacking the next Cruz or Rubio. So I hope there'll be some sort of internal decision-matrix, rather than a full-court-press attack on all "tea party candidates".  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
The Problem is
That the CVF and other groups endorse on the grounds of "Who is the most Buzz-wordy Conservative".  I'm betting if they had to do DE-Sen again they'd still endorse O'Donnell.

Really we should have some kind of a minimum candidate competency test.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
You mean SCF, not CVF
There should be more rigorous rules on naming these superpacs.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I trust Rove about as much as I do Obama
I'm afraid this is going to be NRSC for Crist/Specter all over again.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Told y'all he wasn't gonna run
:(

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Sen. Carl Levin possible retirement?
He raised $13,000 in Q4.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I was just about to post that!
I would love for either Candice Miller or Terri Lynn Land to jump into that race if open.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Land is stronger than Miller, but Rogers would be best
I don't think Candice Miller is as strong of candidate as she would have been in 2002.

Land knows how to campaign. I've seen that personally. She could win.

Rogers also knows how to campaign and took the best the dems could throw at him back in 2000 for Stabenow's old congressional seat. MI-08 in the 90's leaned democrat.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
I doubt he gives up his chairmanship in what could be a competitive primary
The same probably goes for Miller, so Land would probably be best. Plus, Rogers might want to be head of the CIA.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Chairmanship is gone in 2016
And AFAIK Rogers isn't in line for anything else.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Termed out
I'll first say that I expect Carl Levin to run again, which would make this a moot point.

Mike's in his 2nd term as chair. There's a 3 term limit. Would he give up that last term? It'll be tough, but it's possible if Mike thinks he'll have it.  

I highly doubt he'll take the CIA gig under Obama. If it was Romney, he'd probably take it.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Plus he would still be viable for the CIA if he loses
Say Rogers loses a Senate bid in 2014 and a Republican is elected President in 2016. Rogers would be a great pick for CIA.

[ Parent ]
Why wouldn't he take it under Obama?
He would conceivably have it during the next presidents term as well, especially if a Republican wins.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Because Obama can throw him under the bus
I'll say that I can't speak for Mike Rogers and have not discussed this in depth with him, but if he works for Obama, I can see him being the goat at the first chance something goes wrong. That's the M.O. of Obama, find a goat.

When it comes to military and intelligence issues, Mike doesn't play games. That's personal to him. His brother's a general and his wife served in Iraq. He himself served in peacetime and is a former FBI agent.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Why is Land stronger?
Miller hugely overperforms in Macomb, which would help a lot statewide.  I don't know that Land has the same appeal.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
I was assuming if Miller and Rogers don't want to leave the house


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
For a Senator that's been around since the Carter Administration
That's pretty much just crazy old widows sending in random checks, sort of fundraising.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Levin could win wiith $50,000
He's the safest statewide pol in Michigan. Overall, he's about as safe as Hoekstra was in his Holland based congressional district. It would take a miracle to win, and the R's would run a sacrificial lamb.

If it opens up, I hope Mike Rogers jumps in.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen; Romney out too
@mckaycoppins: #taggmentum short-lived MT @ThisWeekABC: 2 sources close to Tagg Romney and his father Mitt say Tagg won't run in Mass. Senate election.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

MA-Sen Sheriff Evangelides Out
http://www.telegram.com/articl...

Looks like Dan Winslow

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Good
A primary between two people with 5% name rec would not have served anyone. Winslow needs all the time he can get to fundraise and get his name rec up.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yup
We only have four weeks to get one of these guys 10k signatures (so 20k to be safe).  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
People here don't like primaries
And with good reason. They can be brutal and expensive and take the focus away from beating Democrats. But when you have 5% name recognition, free TV airtime is really nice to have.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't a primary between candidates with low name recognition...
... help both candidates, by virtue of getting them in the news, attracting the attention of players in the state party, and raising their name recognition? Assuming the primary was conducted civilly, wouldn't a primary have been helpful?

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen; anyone know much about Gomez?
@HotlineJosh: "Hispanic Navy SEAL" exactly the type of candidates that establishment GOP groups should be training, recruiting http://t.co/op0d1Jnn

I get that he was behind an anti Obama super PAC, but other than that he pretty much seems like a blank slate with a great biography.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Andyroo says insiders consider him a horrible candidate
My guess is he's far too conservative/combative for the state.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Allen West is the last thing we need
If he played the above-party-lines, "citizen patriot" role, that would earn him a look. But Gomez doesn't appear interested in doing that.

[ Parent ]
That is my concern for such a blue state, especially with the anti Obama super pac
However, I read comments like this: @HotlineJosh: One GOP name to watch in MA, Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez. Could make Brown's pickup truck schtick look like childs play http://t.co/op0d1Jnn

And then see that he's taking the time to meet with the NRSC and think that he's such a blank slate with a great bio that perhaps he could be disciplined enough to make an impression.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Gomez
If insiders consider someone to be a bad candidate, there's always a reason for it.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yea
There has to be some reason for disliking this guy.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
"Insiders" can also be very wrong


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Not nearly as often as they're correct (nt)


Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
It depends on who those "insiders" are


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Maybe it does
However, I don't think it's wise to go against the CW of insiders. Since sports analogies are popular here, going against the CW of insiders when it comes against candidates is like betting against the SEC in the National Championship: a very bad idea.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
*comes to


Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
That's not a good analogy
But regardless, where is this cw about Gomez? Other than a few on this site making mention of it, I haven't heard a thing. Care to post a link or two?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Not sure an avowed Obama opponent is a great fit for MA
We'd like to make this about Markey being Mayor Quimby. True Brown was a vocal Obamacare/Gitmo closure opponent; but not in a hostile fashion  

[ Parent ]
He lives in Cohasset
Has worked in financial services for awhile.

http://www.adventinternational...


Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Thanks
Anything on policy positions?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
He went on Hardball
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/3036...

He had a designer help him with his home
http://www.boston.com/bostongl...

http://www.campaignmoney.com/p...

Gave $250 to Bush, $230 to Obama!! in 2008, $1000 to Khazei (D) in the 2010 Special, $2.5k to Romney in 2012, and $500 to a Jim Moran (D-VA8) primary challenger. Pretty shocking for a guy associated with an anti-Obama group

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Gave
$100 to Romney in 2002, $75 in 2006 to Kerry Healey

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
SC-Sen; Lee Bright will primary Graham
http://www.fitsnews.com/2013/0...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

MA
Source close to Romney family: Tagg Romney continues to weigh Senate race. Will decide shortly.
The Fix

26, Male, R, NY-10

That's from 8:30 AM this morning
NT

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
8:48 AM - 4 Feb 13
No?

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Pacific
11:48 EST

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Tagg 2014
Robert Costa is reporting that if a Democrat wins the senate seat in 2013, Romney might run in 2014, a little further away from his father's loss.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Tagg did use...
... Tisei's same "it's not my time" turn of phrase in reference to a run, so it's a fair assumption he's planning to run eventually.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
If Tagg wants to run he should do it in NH
There are 2 house & 1 senate seat up for grabs there in 2014. He'll have a much better shot winning there than MA

[ Parent ]
Probably
At this point, I'm of the mindset the Romney brand is basically a non-starter in Massachusetts. The likes of Brown, Baker and Tisei have plenty of statewide potential, but anything Romney is toast from the get-go.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The Bush Brand
Was dead in 2008, so much so that people thought Jeb would never have a shot. Four years later Jeb is being taken seriously for 2016 and Jeb's son George is talked about as an up and comer.

Tagg just needs time.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
MI-3
Now Amash sticks up for Ahmadinejad. Seriously.
https://twitter.com/repjustina...

26, Male, R, NY-10

I think Amash needs to lighten up
Ahmadinejad is not someone you need to protect from humor.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Ridiculous
The running joke in the Iranian community is calling him Antarinejad, which refers to an ape like figure (antar) plus the last portion of his surname.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Amash
Someone in MI-3 needs to grow a set and primary him.  I wonder if he would have been offended when Bush 41 used to purposely mispronounce Saddam Hussein's name.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Amash did not stick up for Ahmedinejad
Come on, Moshe, you're better than that. Sticking up for Ahmedinejad would be defending his actions and Amash did not do that.

Arabs and Middle Easterners in general are very, very sensitive to jokes  or insults being made about any group in the Middle East because of how much they've been looked down upon post-911, and Amash is an Arab. I understand where he's coming from in trying to prevent jokes from being made about Middle Easterners, even if they are evil authoritarian leaders.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Maybe Amash should follow what is going on in the Iranian community
Before he decides what is racist or insensitive to us. As I mentioned above, calling Ahmadinejad an ape has been a running joke for years.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
He made fun
Of a despicable tyrant. That's all. And Ahmadinejad isn't an Arab.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Duh
He's Persian. That's why I made sure to say "Arabs and Middle Easterners in general are very, very sensitive to jokes or insults being made about any group in the Middle East." Not once did I call Ahmadinejad an Arab.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
This is getting out of hand
please move on to other topics.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Terri Lynn Land for MI-3 in 2014!


[ Parent ]
MN-Gov; A push for Emmer again?
MT @MichaelLaRosaDC (AP) - Some Rs pining for repeat campaign for Minnesota gov by former state Rep. Tom Emmer

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Heh
I misread your subject line at first and thought you were talking about the random woman who 'challenged' Feinstein in the California senate race last year. I was like, did anyone actually push for her to run the first time around? Had to look up her name again (Emken).

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I have heard of this
Apparently they fave away Draft Emmer swag at the last Republican meeting last month. My guess is he sticks with his day job as a radio host.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Gerry Leone is more of a threat than let on
He does share a base with Markey, bit if Lynch is a Conservadem, Leone is a DINO in a very different way. While he worked for Coakley in the 1990s, he went to work for the Bush Administration in 2001, until Coakley, not wanting to be succeeded as Middlesex AG by liberal darling(and never tried a case JD holder)Jarrett Barrios. Barrios tried to make an issue of Leone's iffy ties to the party, and Leone made the most of his qualifications which were quite impressive for a Democratic politician at that point(Andover, Harvard).

While Leone has been somewhat vague about his pre-2005 politics, he's in a lot of ways a better match for the older Weld vote in the Metrowest. He also was the prosecutor on the Louise Woodward case.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


MA-Sen: Chai Ling for Senate?
Any chance that former Tiananmen Square student protester Chai Ling runs for Senate in MA as a Republican?

Or us Kathryn Lopez at NRO pulling this out of thin air?
http://www.nationalreview.com/...


Compelling story
Which is what we need in such a difficult state. I would rather take a chance on her than some state legislator that souls try to emulate another Brown campaign. That campaign was great but in doubt it can be replicated by someone else.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
No X 1000
We need the folks in the 978 & 508 who drink beer, root for the Sawx, and wonder where they paycheck went to vote in droves. This sorta "biography campaign" is not gonna work in Billerica & Shrewsbury  

[ Parent ]
True in a way
The voters you are talking about are most concerned with sincerity. The candidate who works the trails hard, asks for their vote, and proves that they are fit for office will win the 978/508 regions. So a biography campaign could work, but that person would need serious retail politicking chops, and you don't usually find that with first-time candidates.

[ Parent ]
My test
Would you think they are a credible candidate without the non traditional life story? If not, then this will be perceived as tokenism & fail miserably.  

[ Parent ]
There are multiple paths to victory in MA
Scott Brown played well with working class voters, but other Republicans have won by appealing to wealthy ones.

Commonwealth Magazine has a bunch of good maps and data on this.  The earlier elections are on the second page:

http://www.commonwealthmagazin...

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
Other Republicans?
Besides Brown we havn't won anything since 2002. Not sure the Weld/Cellucci path to victory is possible anymore.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
If Lynch wins, I think it will open
Not as much as in 1990, since it's a federal race, but there will be a lot of fiscal-moderate social-liberal types in suburbs looking for alternatives.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
AR-Gov/LA-Gov; Coleman enters as expected and Vitter being coy about 2015
http://www.nola.com/opinions/i...

Who would Vitter appoint to replace him? Does anyone think Jindal would run for this seat in 2016 if his presidential campaign falters early?

http://arkansasmatters.com/ful...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Answers
1. Steve Scalise
2. No

Marco Rubio 2016, please

[ Parent ]
So if Jindal isn't on the ticket in 2016, do you think he'll be out of politics?


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Hardly
He's obviously running for President in 2016 and unless he flames out a la Perry he'll hit the distinguished visiting fellow/cable news circuit to stay relevant until his next opportunity arises. If Louisiana had a Senate race in 2018 that might make sense for him (especially if a Republican wins in 2016), but pivoting from a Presidential bid to primary a popular conservative like Scalise is a bad career move.

[ Parent ]
Didn't James say
Kennedy was the favorite to be appointed?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yes
First, Kennedy has been eyeing Gov since he lost to Landrieu. He is the frontrunner for 2015, unless Vitter runs. If Vitter runs, Kennedy likely steps aside for him, as they are somewhat close (Vitter recruited Kennedy to switch parties and run in 2008, and they have often joined together to oppose Jindal's agenda) and their base overlaps. Vitter will owe Kennedy for not running against him. Also, appointing Kennedy allows Vitter to appoint his other lackey, Jim Tucker, as Treasurer.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
VA-Gov; Oh oh
@bdomenech: RT @scontorno: LG Bill Bolling just broke a tie and sided with Dems on an amendment concerning what forms of ID can be used in elections.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Bolling is starting to get irritating
If he's going to Charlie Crist, just do it.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Thing is
That I understand the guy. this isn't Crist/Rubio.
He feels betrayed by Rs that are ready to go with an unelectable candidate just because he's a loudmouth and the local rednecks like it.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I agree
Crist wanted something he wasn't going to get, and that insulted his ego enough to switch parties.

Bolling passed on the 2009 nomination to give McDonnell a clean shot at it (despite being the sitting Lt. Gov), which we really needed after 2008 to give us some momentum heading into 2010.  He did this on the promise that he'd get his shot in 2013.  Cucinnelli then not only cut in line, but got his supporters to change the nomination process from a primary (which Bolling could at least conceivably win) to a convention (which he couldn't).

Bolling really got screwed here, playing the good soldier and then getting jumped over by a far less appealing candidate because he couldn't work the Redstate crowd as well.  Then the Republican State senators duck around him to pass their new redistricting map that he opposed.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
All this could have been avoided if the VA GOP agreed to a primary
If the VA GOP had simply gone with a primary and allow voters to choose the GOP candidate than Bolling would be running as a Republican for Gov. Insead they tried to rig the process with a closed convention and in a sense forced Bolling hand and pushed him out of the party.  

[ Parent ]
Unelectable?
He got 58% statewide in 2009.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
And Cuccinelli was state senator from southern Fairfax county
not exactly redneck land...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
He has opened his mouth since


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NE-Gov article
That is just a bad article all around. Human Events is a conservative newspaper, so I don't know what the problem is. First of all, they suggest that Charlie Janssen would have trouble because he's never been elected to anything outside of his senate district. Well, neither have any of the top Democratic contenders either. It's not as though Rick Sheehy was some 800 pound gorilla in the race and now Republicans are left scrambling. The only thing he had going for him was Heineman's endorsement. He hadn't shown any campaign skills that would make him a great candidate. Frankly, I would have been more concerned with him as a nominee than I would be with somebody else. I had seen nothing about him that made him impressive. That's why I was all set to support Mike Flood when he briefly got in the race. I was pretty much leaning towards supporting Janssen if he was going to be the only person to challenge Sheehy. So this could actually be a blessing rather than a curse.

The other big problem with the article is suggesting that Sen. Anette Dubas is a stalwart liberal Democrat. That is simply not true. She was one of the main sponsors of the major pro-life legislation that passed the Legislature a few years ago. She has also supported other moderate and conservative legislation. Overall, she is one of the more conservative Democrats in the Legislature. She is one of the few Democrats to represent a district outside of Lincoln and Omaha in the Legislature-the district she is in would not a elect a liberal.
Basically, the article is written from a perspective of somebody that clearly does not understand Nebraska politics. Nebraska is still a very Republican state, and any Republican will be favored to hold the governor's seat.

42, R, NE-1.


NY-01
NY-01 voted R+2 in 2008 and 2012, according to DKE. Obama won it by ~6,000 votes. The 2010 shenanigans with Demos leaving attack sites against Altschuler up through the general election probably cost it for us two years ago. Tim Bishop is 62. Does anyone have any inkling as to when he's going to retire? That seat really should be ours.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Put an asterisk on all 2012 LI numbers
Remember Sandy hit Long Island pretty hard. Good portions of the coast was underwater and LIPA did a really terrible job getting the power back on so a lot of people still didnt have power on election day. All campaigning pretty much ended on the Island after the storm. So it certainly was not a normal election cycle in any of these districts.

[ Parent ]
Still...
NY-01 is an R+ district any way you spin it.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
yes but more Dem leaning
than Bush era PVIs

[ Parent ]
Bishop
From what I've heard hes planning on being around for a while.

Republicans (IMO) need to nominate a moderate here or someone who comes off as Moderate but is Conservative.  Randy Altschuler came across as very conservative to everyone I talked to.

Bishop is very liberal, but most voters here don't see him as being so.  He is also very good at constiuent services which helps him out.

In the end Bishop will be hard to beat, but it is possible.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
bishop also helped
By a lot NYC liberals who live in Hamptons 3 months out year yet still vote here.


[ Parent ]
I don't know about that
the problem I saw was that Republicans thought he was a liberal/carpetbagger/opportunist, and liberals had a problem with the outsourcing. From what I've seen, the very conservative label wasn't exactly the problem.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Altschuler?
I don't think I talked to a single Republican out here and can't recall a single one being unhappy with Altschuler's Conservatism.

I admit my evidence is purely anecdotal though, the only polling info I got from the Bishop camp was toplines, nothing more.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Crossroads (Long)
While I'm not opposed to the idea in concept, I think Karl Rove running this is an absolute disaster waiting to happen.

I really don't understand how Karl Rove is considered a political genius unless it is the Wile E Coyote version of "super genius." He got lucky by 500 votes in Florida in 2000, and got lucky again that John Kerry was the worst candidate the dems could run in 2004 thanks to "The New Soldier" and his 1972 traitor speech (read the whole transcript). The only thing he really got right campaign wise was getting ballot initiatives going that drove conservative turnout. That's the one big thing I'll credit him with. When it comes to candidate strategy and issues, I think he flat out sucks.

Karl Rove was deputy Chief of Staff of Bush from 05 to 07. That is the same time trouble really started brewing for the Bush administration.

Karl Rove was 0-fer in Michigan. Lost the 2000 primary. Lost in 2000 and 2004 (and he shouldn't have lost 04). Crossroads lost here in 2012.  He also ran his mouth and did a 1/2way McCain statement here in the last election. He later said it was competitive in the last two weeks, but the earlier comment did major damage. Major. If he was the genius he claimed he was, he'd keep his mouth shut, stay off of Fox (if he's running crossroads) and do what needs to be done.

Now he's getting involved in primaries. Great. A quote from Coach Bob Knight comes to mind. "You (bleeped) it up to begin with, now just sit there or leave."  Knight was addressing a media person who misrepresented him. Rove embarrassed himself and spent a lot of political capital losing hundreds of millions of dollars from donor money and got bad results. His back is against the wall and he needs to redeem himself and his thought process. The think with these national consultants is that it is of course NEVER their own fault. It's always the fault of others. That's how they keep getting their paycheck and these hanger-ons stay around. It can't be the fault of "super genius" but it is the fault of those "tea party people."

Reality is that this year the only one I can pin on the tea party is Mourdock. Akin wasn't tea party (although some tea party backed him after the fact due to the attacks against him by Rove). Romney wasn't tea party. His election day operations are legendary bad with Project Orca. His sign policy also hurt us badly.  In 2010, you could point to Angle and O'Donnell as tea party, but this year you had establishment candidates lose too. Both sides have their good (Rob Portman, Pat Toomey) and bad (Tommy Thompson, Richard Mourdock).

If Steven Law at Crossroads really wants to do this right and be actually pragmatic instead of being another NRSC racket (Chafee, Crist, Specter all over again), he'll need to learn the territory of these areas in depth. He'll need to talk to the experts on the group and learn from them. REAL experts - away from the DC bubble. These experts are those who understand how things work in each individual state - people that live there. If Law tells Rove and DC consultants to back off, this may work.

If Crossroads follows Rove's lead and pushes in, you're going to see state establishments, tea parties, conservatives, and everyone up and down the line unite - AGAINST Crossroads. Why? Turf wars. Arrogance combined with ignorance. Wasting money. How? Because candidates like Steve King in Iowa will drive up the Western Iowa vote with this line "Washington DC thinks they know what is best for Iowans. Vote for me and teach Washington establishment a lesson that primaries are for Iowans." That can work in every state.

I encourage all Republican and Conservative donors to ask themselves these things when determining which committee to support:

1. Do these people have a good track record? Take a close look. While there's always many reasons why candidates sometimes lose, if you see the same style of campaign repeatedly with the same results, a pattern emerges.

2. Do I want my money spent on 3rd parties to elect republicans being wasted attacking good republicans in primaries?  If I want that, I'd donate to the candidate itself or an issues PAC.

3. Will this committee spend my money properly? I hate wasting money. Some call me cheap, but I prefer the term frugal. It goes back to running a countywide committee on $1700 against $10K+. We won BTW.

That doesn't apply just to Crossroads and Rove, but any committee. We all need to use due diligence in our decision making in which committees deserve our support, be it establishment, tea party, or all points in between.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


I'll give Rove a chance on this front
All I know is that I'm fed up and disgusted with the purists at the CfG, Freedomworks, Senate C fund etc etc.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It depends ...
sometimes, they are very neccessary - like in Texas giving us Cruz.

However, reading something like this from Erickson makes me shake my head: "In Delaware, many conservative, myself included, made the conscious decision that it would be far better to have the Democrat win than Mike Castle because of what Castle would do whispering in the ears of Republican leaders."

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
Like I've said before
They uniformly support the most buzz-wordy candidate running.  It just so happens that in Texas and Florida, those candidates were excellent whereas in Nevada and Delaware they were spectacularly bad.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
That is why
I can't stand Erickson. That is just unbelievably stupid. Castle was a moderate, but he would have been with Republicans on a lot more issues than Chris Coons is. The idea that Castle alone was going to move the entire Senate Republican caucus to the left is just ridiculous. It also shows a complete misunderstanding of Delaware politics. No true conservative is going to get elected in Delaware. Period. Castle is probably about the best we were ever going to get.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I don't get why Castle doesn't try again now
He probably would be running for reelection had he won.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Castle
He's 73. He'd have no seniority, he got absolutely embarrassed by a total idiot in Christine O'Donnell (and that's the nicest thing I can say about her), and he's probably just enjoying the last decade of his life on his own terms.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
He lost to O'Donnell
That's not something you just pick up and roll with, even if it was mostly due to heavily negative ad campaigns run against him by outside groups.  I wouldn't be surprised if he's too pissed at the Delaware Republican party to return their phone calls, let alone try running again.  He's pretty much taken his ball and gone home

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
I'd actually take his reverse position
That Coons winning was better for the Republican party that O'Donnell winning would have been.  At least now her ridiculous antics are relegated to talks about how Republicans need to be more selective in their candidates than in DSCC attacks ads in every state in the country.

Similarly, I think that if Angle had won, Heller would almost certainly have lost, and Flake would probably have lost too, on top of Angle being a shoo-out in 2016.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Michigan 2004
Out of curiosity, how would Bush have won Michigan in '04? It's just that I'm of the impression that we simply cannot win Michigan in presidential years.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
There's a way it could have been done
It'll take a long time for me to explain it.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
I would like to hear it
If you don't feel like writing it in a comment, feel free to email me at my profile email because while I'm skeptical Bush could have won Michigan in '04, I'd love to see how it would have been theoretically possible.,

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Corbett has $3.5 million COH
http://www.politicspa.com/corb...

28, Republican, PA-6

ME-Gov; LePage gaffe
@FixAaron: Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R): "My greatest fear in the state of Maine: newspapers. I'm not a fan of newspapers." http://t.co/VejYCwbR

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

ideology wise
He is correct. I can't read a lot either they've become part of problem for discourse.

[ Parent ]
Not a page Terry McAuliffe wants repeated
http://www.vpap.org/donors/pro...

These donations speak to a bigger connection between Terry McAuliffe and Dr. Solomon Melgen than just 'playing golf together,' as Chairman McAullife has claimed.

http://blogs.nbc12.com/decisio...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Univision: alleged prostitute is a virgin
A virgin who's engaged to be married and has never heard of Menendez: http://video.univision.mobi/ed...

(h/t Paleo at DKE)

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


The Miami Herald throws cold water on the Univision story
They seem to think its really lousy journalism on the part of Univision. Apperently Univision just randomly searched for "Yaneisy Fernandez" in the Dominican Republic and stumbled upon some poor country girl with a similarly spelled name and asked her if she was a whore and then put it on television! Read the Herald round up of it here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com...

[ Parent ]
Actually, it doesn't say that
It says that Univision didn't note in their report how they reached her, and it doesn't appear the Miami Herald made much of an effort to find out (like, say, asking Univision.) If you're asking who I think is guilty of shoddy journalism...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
If it were journalism
But it's not. It's blogging about the Univision story. The blogger doesn't intend to break the story.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Then it's not worth talking about
It's a blogger speculating that conceivably Univision could be guilty of shoddy reporting, although they don't know and aren't interested in doing the leg work to find out.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Sort of like what we're doing here
 And we clearly think it is worth talking about. Univision did commit shoddy journalism. They interviewed some random woman with a similar name who isn't a prostitute. How does that give us any new information on what Bob Menendez did or didn't do?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It's not some random blogger its Marc Caputo!
Marc Caputo is The Miami Herald's political writer writing on the Herald's official blog. He's not just some random dude on the net spouting nonsense. He's a journalist investigating the Menenedez story who's calling shenanigans on Univision's so called reporting.

[ Parent ]
His cushy job...
... doesn't make his accusations any less specious. It's unfounded speculation, not journalism.  

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
yeah
To me, saying that she's not a hooker is like NBC saying that someone named "James Holmes" from Aurora, CO is a member of the Tea Party.  If she said that she WAS a hooker and never met Menendez, that would be a little more beneficial to the Senator.  But the fact that she shares nothing but a name leads me to believe that perhaps she's a different person.  Who knows.

[ Parent ]
The Univision story is bunk
Univision never explained how they found this woman or why they believe she is the Yaneysi Fernandez that is referred to by the tipster. Basically they found some random woman with a similar name and asked her if she was a whore. Its as if CBS news went through the DC phone book in 1998 found some random woman with a similar sounding name like "Monica Lewinski" and asked he if she had sex with the President! The story is bunk and will do nothing to help Menendez get off the hook for accepting free trips & hookers from Melgen in exchange for shilling for his port security company on the floor of the US Senate.

[ Parent ]
Guilty until proven innocent, I see.
[ Parent ]
Welcome to politics
If it's repeated enough, it no longer matters if it's true.

[ Parent ]
If it were only that simple
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Media outlets have been searching for the women who were identified as prostitutes in records released by the government watchdog group CREW. Fernandez was identified in those records.

This woman's name is on the records as one of the prostitutes. She clearly isn't one of the women who spoke publicly about Menendez on video. There are likely several Yaneisi Fernandez in the Dominican Republic. are there other Yaneisi Fernandez? Couldn't they have gotten the name wrong on the document?

Let's get real here. There are prostitutes in the Dominican Republic. Some of them may have been at Casa de Campo. They may have been there when Bob Menendez was there. He may have had sex with them. They may have been under age.

What Bob Menendez needs is not some random woman who claims she's never been there. He needs prostitutes who were there during the periods in question to claim that he 1) wasn't there 2) was there but didn't have sex with them for money 3) had sex with them for money but that they were over 18 at the time. This doesn't help Menendez at all.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe, maybe
He also could have been brainwashed by Martians. It's not a question of what's possible. However this story plays out, there will always be a potential series of events where Menendez had sex with prostitutes (there will also be a potential series of events where he dealt drugs and traveled through time); Menendez does not need to disprove every one. It's a question of what's provable.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
What?
Brainwashed by Martians? What the...?

Bob Menendez isn't on trial in a court here. He's on trial in the court of public opinion. Menendez can certainly sit around and hope that no Dominican prostitutes will come forward and point a finger at him. But if he lets the story unfold in any way it sees fit, as he has, he won't be able to move past this in the court of public opinion.

No one ever proved any wrongdoing against John Ensign. It was never about what was provable.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
How long 'til the press loses interest?
I guess the press could conceivably keep regurgitating the same she said he said accusations; but if there are no new developments or any evidence these increasingly wild accusations are true, will it stay a story?

Ensign's scandal is not at all like Menendez' potential scandal. For one, Ensign admitted to wrongdoing. Not wrongdoing against the law, but moral wrongdoing. Whether he broke the law or not, he engaged in activity most of his constituents found immoral, and he goaded the press on by admitting the accusations against him were partially true, which in turn gave way to a public mentality of where there's smoke, there's fire.

In contrast, Menendez' position is that he's done nothing immoral or illegal and is a victim of slanderous politically-motivated accusations. If nothing can be proved against him, and there are no meaningful developments to the story, it's she said he said, and the press will lose interest, and, if they don't, he has the moral high ground. This is not career ending circumstantial evidence.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
He paid back $60k worth of illegal "gifts" from a donor!
Only three years late!  C'mon.  He can say he's done nothing wrong, but he already was taking gifts that he had no intention of telling anyone about until he was caught (i.e. Torricelli).  There really has been no explanation for that, has there?  Ensign 'fessed up.  Menendez gets caught taking stuff and blames Conservatives...slimy man.

[ Parent ]
Bob Menendez being slimy
Here's what a moderate Democratic friend of mine from North Jersey had to say about Bob Menendez last week (and I'm paraphrasing).

‎"Senator Menendez came to my synagogue one day for some event and, instead of sitting in the middle of the room or making rounds to every table, he just sat down next to my dad and me in the corner of the room and kind of waited for people to come to him. He shook my hand and I just felt cold and dead inside."

He also said he didn't vote for Menendez.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
correction
There was an explanation.  It was a "sloppy" "oversight".  Because clearly when you make less than $200K per year, two vacations at $58.5K were so small that they should be missed on a disclosure form.  He's either lying, or he shouldn't be trusted with one penny of our tax dollars.

[ Parent ]
When in doubt, keep blaming the right wing blogs
The smears, the smears that right-wing blogs have been pushing since the election. That is totally unsubstantiated. It's amazing to me that anonymous, nameless, faceless individuals on a website can drive that kind of story into the mainstream. But that's what they've done successfully. Now, nobody can find them, no one ever met them, nobody ever talked to them, but that's where we're at. The bottom line is all of those smears are absolutely false, and that's the bottom line.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/...

I wasn't aware that the Daily Caller was "nameless faceless" individuals since I've met both Tucker Carlson and Matt Lewis and both have faces. Setting that aside, they didn't push the story into the mainstream. In fact, the mainstream press refused to report it. What's pushed the story mainstream is that the FBI raided Melgen's office and that he took two "vacations" with Melgen that he only recently paid back. Any time you're involved with someone like that, it becomes a story.

Menendez is playing the blame the accuser card that Anthony Weiner so successfully used and ignoring the developing story involving the FBI. That's one story that no one can claim is a politically motivated smear from a nameless faceless individual.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Where there's smoke..
This is eerily reminiscent of the Anthony Weiner-Twitter situation. Weiner was accused of something that he might have done, denied it, and then the left went to work attacking Breitbart, certain the allegations were untrue. Why deny something when you have no idea whether it is or not?

That was the story the press decided not to cover in November. And that wasn't a "he said, she said," since there are no "she saids" right now coming forward. I don't know if Bob Menendez had sex with anyone and most of this scandal isn't about underage Dominican prostitutes right now as a result. If that was all it was, the press wouldn't be covering it.

This is about a man who has an $11 million IRS lien, whose offices were searched by the FBI. That man happens to be a major donor to Democrats, including to a Superpac that spent Melgen's money heavily on Menendez. If that were all it was, it might not be a big deal. Megadonors are accused of wrongdoing all the time.

But then there's this Dominican port deal that Menendez allegedly pushed on Melgen's behalf. That's the sort of thing the press, the FBI, and the Senate Ethics committee takes interest in. Then there's the fact that Menendez took two very expensive trips with Melgen to the Dominican Republic. That just happens to be where the ports and the prostitutes are.

Then there is Menendez miraculously coming up with $58,500 several years late to repay the trips. If Bob Menendez is worth only a few hundred thousand dollars, much of that net worth is likely in his home. Did he really have that kind of money sitting in a bank account somewhere? Is this money from a bank loan? Did it come from a friend? Again, this is something people take notice of. Look at the Countrywide investigation, for example.

Maybe Menendez did something. Maybe he didn't. There's a lot of smoke. There's usually going to be some fire.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Actually Menendez is being investigated by the FBI
The FBI did raid Dr. Melgen's office. So it is quite possible that could be put on trial in court for accepting favors in exchange for doing favors. Weather the Senator was brainwashed by Martians or not is irrelevent to the fact that he seems to be a creep and a crook.

[ Parent ]
Let's not get ahead of ourselves
Melgen is being investigated by the FBI. Menendez has neither been identified as a target or person of interest by the FBI and there's no indication they've interviewed him. The problem is that some of the things that interest the FBI about Melgen include Menendez. He could become part of the probe.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
GA-SEN
Westmoreland, Reed out.  Broun in Weds. per Twitter.

Who will run for Dems?  Barnes?  Baker?  A State Senator?  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


GA-Sen; Westmoreland and Reed out, Broun in Wednesday and Kingston probably in
http://m.ajc.com/weblogs/polit...

State senator John Douglas is in to replace Broun and former state rep. Doug McKillip may run as well.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Any chance Barrow runs?
He'd likely be the underdog against any Republican, even a Tea Partier scathed by a nasty primary. However, he may have better odds running for the Senate than running for reelection in the 12th. If he runs for the Senate, the DSCC will reward him for his party loyalty. If he runs again for his House seat, he won't have the luxury of facing off against Lee Anderson (the Todd Akin of the House challengers). Moreover, he'll have to run on turf still unfamiliar to him. Given that black turnout will be so depressed down there, he might as well shoot for a promotion. He'd garner a higher percentage of the white vote statewide (winning over college students and limousine libs in ATL) than in the 12th  

Ryan/Kasich 2016

[ Parent ]
Let's game this out
Suppose the following "dream scenario" for the Dems happens:

1. Paul Broun wins a nasty primary and runoff with an establishment Republican.
2. Above average black turnout for a midterm, nearing what you'd see in a normal general election (one where Obama is not the Dem candidate).  Not sure what would trigger that.
3. Depressed GOP base turnout, perhaps due to lack of enthusiasm if the GOP leadership is perceived to have "abandoned their principles" and "caved to Obama" too often.

I still think Barrow is at best a 50/50 bet statewide in this circumstance.  A Dem's best path to getting elected statewide is a combination of a huge black turnout plus winning over less conservative Republicans/independents in the suburbs (of Atlanta and other cities.)  I'm not sure that Barrow has the right profile for that.  However I think he'd have a good chance to win the 12th due to incumbency under the above scenario.


Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
McConnell not sure on filibustering Hagel
http://bigstory.ap.org/article...

They should. Hagel would be horrific.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


MA Sen: Leone's not running.
Says he wants to get out of electoral politics. Good for him.
Weld isn't running on the GOP side, nor is Tagg Romney(Mitt's eldest son). But Jack E. Robinson, a political clown nonpareil, will run as an independent.
So we've got that goin' for us.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

MA-Sen
Here is the e-mail from Winslow.

NORFOLK (February 4, 2013)-- State Representative Dan Winslow (R-Norfolk) will issue a press release at 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday, February 5, 2013 regarding his plans for the U.S. Senate special election in Massachusetts. Representative Winslow will thereafter be available for individual interviews by media organizations and for television appearances as his schedule allows. Any media organization wishing to schedule an individual interview can make arrangements by contacting Rob Willington.

R - MD-7


IA-Sen; it looks like Latham is in
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I hope Latham enters in the race
Not only he has a great winning streak and name recognition but he is a strong campaigner...we dont want lazy politicians like Tommy Thompson...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
And no candidates that make it harder then neccessary
read: King ... don't get me wrong, I like King, but I'd prefer a winnable race with Latham, over an unwinnable race with King in it.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
I agree on King...
actually i like him very much but simply he cant win running up numbers in his homebase...to win statewide in Iowa republicans need to do well in the eastern part of the state and of course in Polk county...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Latham and King
I don't see both of them running. they seem to really get along.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I think King isnt a party bomber...
He could see Latham more moderate than him but I think he respects him...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Wasn't there some talk
about only one of them jumping into the race to avoid a primary between the two of them?

I'd give King high credit for letting Latham take the lead on this one!

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
IA-3
This district is fairly safe if Latham runs but it become a swing district if he runs for senate. I hope that if he does, it better be because he has a clear path to the nomination. It's really suck to lose this seat and Latham not be the nominee.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
King
Also owes Latham for moving out of his district and running in IA-03 instead of IA-04. Sure, King would have beaten Latham in the IA-04 primary, but would have been a tough opponent and King may not have recovered for the general  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Winslow, if he runs, is an great candidate
Probably the best candidate other than Brown. He has a reputation as one of the brightest stars of the legislature of either party, was a prominent attorney before being Romney's counsel, and is the only person to come out of the Gay Marriage fight of 2003-2004 with almost everyone happy with him. He is very much like a more white collar, more moderate version of Brown in 2009.

Weld, Tagg Romney, Healey, Tisei, and Baker all would have been more prominent, but they all, with the exception of Tisei who lost a race he should have won, have fatal negatives, and probably would have lost the 2010 special against Coakley. Brown won both because he was a good candidate, and because he had no negatives beyond that. Winslow would be the same.

Winslow probably won't win. But he could win. Despite the claims of some of their friends, I feel that the same could not be said for Weld, Baker, Romney, Healey or Tisei who might have run exciting races but had more or less nil chance of actually winning even if Markey were to run a bad race.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


Winslow also minimizes party exposure
He's not likely to do anything in a MASen race to give Rs elsewhere agita. He'll offer a credible Republican alternative to Markey or Lynch; without distractions like quitting the Governorship decades ago or having one's lifestyle a front page issue.

[ Parent ]
AE
The stillbirth of Americans Elect could be a problem for him.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Janet Napolitano for President
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Trying to blow the doors off the idea that you need charisma to get elected.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


And I thought Obama was bad....
Don't even get me started on that person.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Your reaction
It brings up a suspicious I have had all along regarding 2016. I personally believe that it does not matter which of the serious contenders Democrats put up, Republicans will try and say "(s)he is worse than Obama". I find this odd becuase during 2008 and 2012 I often heard "Obama is the worse possible president". I know it's all campaign tactics, but the way you responded to Secretary Napolitano sort of reinforces my suspicion. I guess we will find out in a couple years.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
In 2008
After saying GWB was the worst possible President, the Dems' line of attack against McCain was that he would be an extension of Bush. I wonder if the GOP would settle for "the same as Obama" or would try to one-up it.

[ Parent ]
I actually was in the camp
Where I felt McCain would be a marginally better president than Bush, and Romney would have been between the two. And I don't throw out the term "worst president ever" like some on the left and right do in a reactionary sense. Buchanan, VanBuren, Andrew Johnson, and Hoover are substantially worse than anyone in recent history, or anyone on the horizon.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
There were a bunch of doozies in the mid 1800's
I'm not surprised you mentioned Buchanan, but am surprised that you didn't mention his predecessor Franklin Pierce (my worst ever leader). Millard Fillmore wasn't much better.

The Fugitive Slave Law and Bleeding Kansas broke the back of the uneasy truce in that period.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Collectively
The presidents between Jackson and Lincoln were pretty bad. Buchanan just stands out among them as presidential scholars pretty much agree his failures had a huge lasting negative effect on the country.

I would also say the same thing about the presidents between the Roosevelts, both of them I highly admire.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Republicans and historians would disagree
James Polk and Woodrow Wilson are looked on favorably by most historians. It's arguable that Polk defined American foreign policy until World War I and that Wilson's vision of America's role in the world has defined America since. The Bush administration's neo-conservatism is rooted in Wilsonian Democracy.

Calvin Coolidge is very well regarded by Republicans. His Presidency was a long sustained period of economic success that begun the definition of America as a global financial power.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Polk continued the path towards civil war
Although he was very active in defining the American boundaries we would recognize today. But he did it in a ruthless fashion. He was also a coddler of slave owners after it was clear slavery was on the way out. Like a lot of presidents, Polk was a mixed bag.

And Wilson was terrible in my view. He explicitly ran against joint Europe's war, just to jump in head first after getting reelected. Also, he did oversee the onset of prohibition, which was bad. He symbolically vetoed a bill, but he was a known teetotaler and at least sympathetic to prohibition.

Coolidge and Harding set the ball rolling towards an inevitable depression with Hoover as the right hand man being secretary of commerce in both of their aadministrations.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
You blame Coolidge for the Depression
Bill Clinton was President during a similar boom period. The better the boom period, the more likely the bust will be big and the recession of 2001-2002 was brought after his bubble burst. If you blame Coolidge for the Depression, can you absolve Clinton of blame for that recession? I know many people dismiss this recession, but from personal experience it was a tough time.

Some might argue that two Clinton era laws, the Financial Services Modernization Act and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, helped bring about the 2008-2009 recession, but I find it difficult to blame someone for what the laws did years later. If there was a problem, the next President should've fixed it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I don't absolve Clinton
And quite a few people lose money in recessions, that's why it's a recession. In the grad scheme of recessions though, that one was very small in comparison to what happened in '29 and '08. Clinton was an exceptionally talented politician, and he was president at a very prosperous time. For a presidency to be great it takes the right person, as well as the right time. Clinton certainly had the latter, and he was able to get enough people to like him personally that his shortcomings personally and politically are often brushed over. I don't see his presidency as a failure, but it was not a fantastic presidency.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Thats Unfair to Polk
He was very much in the Jacksonian rather than Calhoun tradition in the South. He had co-sponsored the Force Act in 1833 and pushed it through as Majority Leader. He attempted was far closer to Thomas Hart Benton's Anti-Slavery forces than he was to Davis and his clique. He also quietly backed the legal argument, later to be embraced by Zachary Taylor, that because Mexican Law banned Slavery, the territories won from Mexico also already banned it up until the point at which Congress chose to legislate otherwise.

Polk arguably was the last prominent national Democrat to stand up to the Pro-Slavery forces until Douglas broke with the Buchanan Administration over the Lecompton Constitution for Kansas.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Pardon my ignorance
but why is Van Buren so bad?  I do agree with your judgement on Buchanan and Andrew Johnson.

I also think Hoover was not among the worst.  He was handed an exploding bomb and was unable to defuse it, but he did try to do something (e.g. Reconstruction Finance Corp.), although too little too late.  I also don't totally blame Hoover for the actions of Douglas MacArthur.

I actually don't know why John Adams is rated so highly.  He had little tolerance for dissent and I suspect he'd have been quite happy with an oligarchy.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
We will disagree on Hoover on a deep level, I believe.
Adams Senior gets a waiver as the first 5 presidents are considered the "founding father presidents" and Adams' contributions to America were better known and more important before he was president. His feud with Jefferson will go down in history as one of the most bitter political rivalries in American history, so there is that.

VanBuren was a feckless president that really started a bad pattern of worthless presidents. He wanted to be Andrew Jackson and ended up failing miserably. It sent the country down a bad path towards civil war, which was not predestined before his predestined when he took office, but was when he left.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
How do you feel about Carter?
Because I kind of feel the same way about him as I do with Hoover, a tragic figure who was in over his head rather than an abject disaster.  Both were handed a mess that had been developing for many years.
But most Republicans feel that Carter was among the worst ever, while Dems feel that Hoover was among the worst ever.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Carter was not a good president
However he has fulfilled the shoes of "elder statesman" quite well since leaving office. No, not everything that happened was within his control, but that is the case with every president, and a lot of bad S*** happened in the 70s. Nixon Ford and Carter are all forever tarnished because of these events.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Well I'd start the blame
for that era with LBJ, and his "guns" and "butter".  The was the start, IMO, for the disaster that ended up blowing up in Jimmy Carter's face.  Nixon and Ford had their part in this too.

This is just a hunch, but I suspect that the financial, entitlement, and debt bomb will blow up on the next President (between 2017-2020).  Neither Bush or Obama did much more than to bandage over these issues, and whomever wins in 2016 will be the next Hoover or Carter (unless they prove to be an exceptional leader, and perhaps even then.)  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I think that is more paranoia than based in reality
Although from time to time the paranoid end up being right. I think our economy will level off in a tepid growth cycle for the foreseeable future. With half the country disliking the other half, and the feelings are returned, the country won't grow. It was once stated that "A house divided against itself cannot stand". It takes a uniting force to really inspire growth in America in a historical context. WWII got us all on the same page, and finished getting us out of the depression, for instance. I don't see this deep political divide we see today being assuaged any time soon, which will hinder the economy's potential for the next few years.

As for Johnson, he was another president where you had to take the good with the bad. There was the huge leaps made in civil rights, but there was also Vietnam. A very conflicted presidency for sure.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
It might be
FYI - Carter is at the "worst in my lifetime" position for now. Obama is close. I'll decide in about five years if he exceeds it.

My reaction was strictly gut level with that individual. Irony is that Hillary wouldn't have gotten the same reaction out of me. (It's Bill Clinton lite). Nor would Mark Warner, or some of the other names out there.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Well yeah
That's pretty much par for the course.  "The current president is not actually as bad as the guy before him" doesn't have the same ring as "Worst president ever".  I remember the "anybody but Clinton" meme that was popular on the right in 2007 because anything would be better than another Clinton presidency.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
His reaction
It's not like you've seen that on this board or from him about a lot of other Democrats. Republicans think Obama is a bad President. That's not exactly breaking news here. Anyone who lived through Jimmy Carter probably won't rate him as worse than Carter, but Bill Clinton, who was reviled by Republicans during his Presidency, has been redeemed to some extent among Republicans. Personally, I always liked him as a President and voted for him.

Whoever runs in 2016 will be sold to Republicans as another 4 years of Obama. If Obama is unpopular, they'll sell him that way to everyone.

Of course this is the 2008 tactic Democrats used with George Bush. Ronald Reagan, who was hated by Democrats, has suddenly come into vogue as a reasonable Republican. We hear a lot of how he couldn't get elected today, how he worked with Democrats, and how moderate his policies were. Reagan was for immigration reform! Reagan was for an assault weapons ban! Reagan raised taxes!

Now it seems George Bush may become the darling of the left, as Obama praised him on his stance on immigration and even decided to extend almost all of the evil tax cuts that Democrats spent a decade blaming for deficits.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I was too young to understand politics during Reagan's presidency
I would say his presidency was more successful than Bush 43's. A lot of what his supporters say is true, but so is a lot of what his detractors say. Like most things in life and politics, the truth is somewhere in between.

Again, I don't say either of these presidents were on the level of Buchanan, and I never have.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Judgements
I don't think many people will disagree with you comparing Bush to Reagan. When judging Presidents, you're either judging them from their personal reaction to their Presidency or from your knowledge of history. I think they are two different ways of judging.

My experience of recent Presidents may be contrary to what the experts say, but  I think it's valid because it's personal judgement. Jimmy Carter was the worst in my memory.

People often make judgements on past Presidents with incomplete information, as we saw during the recent debate where one board member thought Lincoln would be a Democrat today. I have little knowledge of Buchanan, only that his mismanagement of the country was a contributing factor in the Civil War. That may be enough but it's hardly the whole picture.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Depends
Social conservatives absolutely hated Clinton (and justifiably so from their point of view).  Economic conservatives and libertarians had a much more nuanced view of Clinton.  But I think the real reason why Clinton has been "redeemed" is the economy.  After many years of mediocre and poor economic performance, many see the Clinton years with some nostalgia.

Most Democrats I know still hate Bush with a passion, and probably still will for many years.  The Iraq war was probably the tipping point for their hatred of Bush.  Same thing with Obamacare for Republicans.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Much like what happened with Medicare and Social Security...
...in twenty years, elected Republican's will claim they're the real protectors of Obamacare. :)  

[ Parent ]
Provocative statement
Clearly this is a provocative statement designed to get a rise out of Republicans. You seem to have a genuine misunderstanding of Republican positions.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
CO-Sen; Bob Beauprez only Republican interested?
http://kdvr.com/2013/02/04/uda...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I'd be OK with Beauprez
He won two races in an evenly divided district in the 2000s and he can partially self-fund. If Gardner isn't going to run and he's eager to do it, he seems like the second-best option.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
What do people think
of the alternate plan to change the EC vote allocation in Pennsylvania?

A House version of the electoral college vote allocation legislation would award Electoral College votes using the formula based on the popular vote in each congressional district. Pileggi's version of the legislation has ditched the congressional district piece and would award the electoral votes simply as a percentage of the popular vote.

http://www.ncnewsonline.com/op...

I think this should have been the plan from the beginning in Dem-leaning states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and possibly Pennsylvania.  Unlike the congressional district plan, one cannot argue that this is a power grab, as it guarantees that the winning candidate would win the majority of EC in that state.  So it has some assets as a good government standpoint.

However, it would still give the GOP somewhat of an even field.  Currently, Obama could have lost the popular vote by 1.6% and still won.  Under this plan, if Romney had won FL and OH, he would have 253 EV.  Add in the 4-5 from Wisconsin, 6-7 from Michigan, and the 8-9 from PA, and he has at least 271 EV.

I'm sort of unsure about whether doing this in PA would be helpful.  Chris Christie would probably PA outright if he runs, while Rubio, Bush, or someone else would have a lot more trouble there.          

Christie 2016  


Of course it's a power grab.
It's legislation applied exclusively in blue states to give a losing Republican nominee the Electoral College.

[ Parent ]
Agree
It is a power grab.

I support it being done in every state though.  I suspect that if you applied the proportional test to every state we would have a broader national focus in elections.  Democrats and Republicans would have the incentive to campaign in large states that are uncompetitive now.  The system I am envisioning would be as follows:

1) The winner of the state gets 2 votes.
2) The rest of the electoral votes are allocated based on the percentage of the popular vote each candidate wins.
3) If a candidate gets 66% of the popular vote, that candidate wins all of the state's electoral votes.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
It's intended as a power grab, but is it fulfilling that intention?
PA has an increasingly slight D+ PVI, so, if trends hold, the odds of it disadvantaging either party on average for the foreseeable future seem slim.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
in PA its almost something that would backfire.
In 1984 PA was a D+5 state. The sole state where this makes sense in my view is Michigan, from a pure partisan perspective.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
if we count states where there is ballot initives; there's a few more
Leading the list would be California, but Washington & Oregon are among the blue states with ballot initive where a Colorado 2004 style initive would be better than current from a partisan perspective.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
something to think about
Dems had no problem changing the laws several times as they went in Mass. when Romney was Gov. and Kerry might have been President.  Though it wasn't messing with the Presidency, it could very well have messed with the balance of power in the US Senate.  I'm curious what all the Democrats thought about that?  How was it any different than this?  You can say, "Well a Republican shouldn't get to appoint a Dem in Mass. because it's a Dem state and Kerry was a Dem," but they elected a Republican Governor knowing that a vacancy would be filled by a Republican, so that argument rings hollow to me.

I'm not advocating for or against any EV changes, but this whining was certainly not present from Dems in 2004 and 2009 when Democrats in the Mass. legislature were tinkering with what could have been the balance of power in the US Senate.


[ Parent ]
I mostly agree your sentiment
however, I would say that "Well a Republican shouldn't get to appoint a Republican in Mass. because Kerry was a Dem".

When a Senator leaves his/her office, I believe that any appointment should be of the same party until a special election is held, similar to Wyoming/Hawaii.  The voters chose to elect someone of a particular party, and it should take another election to elect someone of a different party.    

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I think there's two main differences, although
you're right that that was probably an immoral thing to do.

For one, it's a pure scale thing. Tinkering with a Senate seat isn't the same as giving your party a permanent (if we were to assume that all blue states with GOP control pass such laws, especially the Virginia version of it) 50 EV boost to the Presidency.

The other thing is that it's in my eyes a lot more...base to directly tinker with the choice that a majority of voters make. Sure, you can go on about how the US isn't a democracy, and federalism and the founders, but that system just stands because it effectively aligns with the outcome a direct vote would bring 95% of the time. If the states aligned in a way that a party that gets 45% of the vote has a lock on the Presidency, the Electoral College would have been gone 50 years ago.

Fooling around with a Senate seat in Massachusetts isn't directly overturning the will of the voters. Making it so that a party permanently is at a strong disadvantage to win, or for that matter, districting a legislature such that winning 55% of the vote doesn't even give you a majority, is.


[ Parent ]
porportional bad idea for PA
1: Who would spend a dime on TV ads in PA knowing that their ads effect at most 2 electoral college votes?

2: PA is now so close to even PVI by 2012 only as to make no difference, and if trends lines continue will be a (very) slight R+ in 2016; this isn't the state to be doing this for in isolation. (Among states with Republican trifecta; start with Michigan)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Agree
Pennsylvania is even so slowly moving in the Republican direction.  This is why I think the measure dies.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
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