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Breakdown of Georgia Open Seat

by: AppleCon

Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 11:55:38 AM EST


We need to make sure no Todd Akin/Sharon Angle-type candidate wins the Republican nomination. Democrats have Barrow, Marshall, Cleland, and Barnes sitting on the bench. It's not worth the risk to nominate Broun or Gingrey. So we need a solid candidate that can not only win the establishment support, but win the endorsement of Club for Growth and most of the conservative/Tea Party wing. We need the ideal candidate to defeat Broun. 

Attributes of an Ideal Candidate:

1. Represents Metro Atlanta

2. Elected in 2008 or before

3. Has lifetime rating of 90% or above from Club for Growth

4. Non-controversial

 

List of potential candidates:

1. Price- 95% rating from CFG, elected in 2006, represents Metro Atlanta

2. Kingston- represents southern part of state and has 82% rating from CFG

3. Handel- Governor Deal hates her

4. Graves- too inexperienced (elected in 2010)

5. Woodall- too inexperienced (elected in 2010) and has 84% rating from CFG

6. Scott- too inexperienced (elected in 2010) and has 85% rating from CFG

7. Collins- too inexperienced (elected in 2012)

8. Broun- too controversial, but has 99% rating from CFG

9. Gingrey- too controversial (he defended Akin's comments) and has 85% rating from CFG

10. Westmoreland- not running

 

 

Conclusion:

Tom Price is perfect. Not only from the attributes above, but he is also well-liked by Newt Gingrich and Paul Ryan. He was also Chairman of the Republican Study Committee and Chairman of the Republican Policy Committee. He's liked by the establishment and the Tea Party wing.

AppleCon :: Breakdown of Georgia Open Seat
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Breakdown of Georgia Open Seat | 22 comments
Alveda King
She probably would not be interested but she would give Republicans another African-American senator and also ensure Republicans are the party leading the way in Georgia to elect minority candidates statewide.
The way's been led
Thurbert Baker

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Gutsy pick
I'm skeptical of running candidates who come from the world of activism, but if King won it would send reverberations across the political landscape. MLK's niece would be quite an addition to the Senate conference.

A safer bet might be to run her for GA-06 or GA-11 if those seats come open.

[ Parent ]
Conservatives love Black candidates
It's a contradiction. We say we want to elect the best candidate and we're color blind, but then we bend over backwards for a minority candidate. Conservatives want to prove we aren't racists and that Blacks can support us that we end up with our own affirmative action. I'm not saying King or other Black candidates are unqualified, but we bump them up.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
King
is clearly less qualified than Kingston, Broun, Gingrey, or Handel.  I don't see how anyone can say otherwise.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Maybe for congress, but not Senate
Her only elected experience is being elected to one term in the state HOR in 1980. She also ran unsuccessfully for congress in a Democratic primary for the 5th CD twice: in 1984 (4%) and 1986 (2%). But she lives in Atlanta, so she would have to move to the suburbs to run as a Republican.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican
[ Parent ]
Depends what part of Atlanta
The Republican neighborhoods of the city are mostly in GA-11.  A small portion may also be in GA-06.
[ Parent ]
Not really
We have zero blacks in the house, only one in the senate with six Latinos in the house and two in the senate. And four of those ten Latinos along with Rubio and Cruz represent heavy Latino areas. And before one says we've had some that lost, its only a handful every cycle that are in winnable races.

Now, considering there are many weak/less than stellar white candidates that run all the time, I guess it is easy to not point that out.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Really
Allen West became a national conservative hero. So did Mia Love. Herman Cain was leading the Presidential polls at one point. Republicans elected Michael Steele to RNC chairman and then were afraid to fire him and look racist.

We want to show everyone we're not racist and there are minority Republicans that we give an advantage to minorities.

I'm not saying they aren't good candidates, only that Republicans prefer to vote for the minority over the White candidate if they have the chance.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes, not really because you can count all of your examples with your fingers
Now, count how many white candidates we've had that weren't greatly qualified or won despite better candidates being in a primary.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
You're missing my entire point
Or just purposefully missing it. I've made no call on how qualified any White or minority candidate is. Whether Herman Cain was more qualified than Newt is immaterial. I'm not judging that. What I am saying is that Republicans prefer to vote for Black candidates to show they aren't racist. Black candidates will even attain celebrity beyond their position.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I get your point, but I don't buy it
Not every black candidate became a conservative star. We've only had three (West, Love, and Cajn), yet folks like Parker, Frazier, and dozens of others were limited in their exposure. Yet, since we are a party dominated by a lot of white folks, the number of white candidates breaking through either electorally or via the media doesn't get recognized.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
You're trying not to buy it
Of course every Black candidate isn't going to get elevated by Republicans. Of course, some White candidates will get elevated. And it surely isn't limited to those three. J.C. Watts, Tim Scott, Ken Blackwell, and Lynn Swann. If we're talking Parkers, let's not forget Star Parker, who ran for a seat a Republican couldn't win and still got a ton of attention.

Regardless of how many Blacks are elevated up or Whites are also, that doesn't change that a portion of the Republican electorate will vote for the minority candidate to show they aren't racist/xenophobic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Initially
You said that we like to pick the best candidates, but then will bend over backwards for a minority candidate. My point is that in dozens of races every cycle with all white candidates this does not happen either. And that other criteria is used to pick a candidate (young vs old, charismatic vs not, connected vs outsider, etc...).

Swan, Watts, and Parker all had some celebrity going for themselves when they first ran, much like Osborne or Bunning. Guys like Blackwell and Steele were talented pols that moved up over time and legitimately got their chance in high profile statewide races.

Ill accept that certain charismatic black pols excite the base, but no more than white pols do. For instance, I don't think Paul Ryan deserved the attention he did, as he got credit for being a budget hawk for all his years on the hill. Yet, his record was that of a big spending establishment type and his "big plan" was tame to say the least. So, why did he rise with conservatives? Was it perhaps due to his leave it to beaver, Midwestern persona?

Overall, my point is other than a small number of minority candidates that got attention, your thesis isn't holding up, as there just aren't enough examples considering how few minority candidates run, let alone win.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
You're missing my entire point
Or just purposefully missing it. I've made no call on how qualified any White or minority candidate is. Whether Herman Cain was more qualified than Newt is immaterial. I'm not judging that. What I am saying is that Republicans prefer to vote for Black candidates to show they aren't racist. Black candidates will even attain celebrity beyond their position.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Sort of
I think the establishment and politically active Republicans have this bias toward minority candidates.  I'm not at all convinced that rank and file grassroots Republicans think in this manner, however.  

And I think Allen West would have been a conservative hero even if he white.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
And, also
There's rather little evidence that it actually makes any difference, except perhaps for running Latino Republicans in majority-Latino districts. Even the evidence on that front strikes me as limited, but enough to be noteworthy.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Its less about that individual race and more about the main narrative
I don't think Republicans would want a black candidate because we think that it'll help win that particular seat.  If anything, she's more likely to lose it than Generic R since she's untested politically (I think).

Rather its more to establish prominent counter-examples to the idea that Minorities can't be/vote Republican.  We do decently with Hispanics (as in more than 25%) outside major cities, but we do absolutely terrible with Blacks, to the point where you can call voting Democrat a part of being culturally black.  Republicans don't like that idea, particularly when it helps shut us out of areas like SW Atlanta and SE Queens which are full of culturally conservative middle class Blacks.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
I don't know
Her past is pretty dicey.  I doubt she could win a primary.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I like Kingston
Hope him along with several Atlanta candidates run and split each other's vote.

If not Kingston, then I like Broun.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

Umm...
If we want to win this seat, I don't think we want Paul Broun anywhere near the nomination.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
What do you guys think?
Who would you pick?

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican
Breakdown of Georgia Open Seat | 22 comments
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