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IA-Sen: Braley Running

by: shamlet

Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 11:18:21 AM EST


That was fast. Just days after suggestions that he might wait around until summer to declare his intentions, Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has officially announced he's running for Democrat Tom Harkin's vacated Senate seat.

Braley noted his plans in a post on his Facebook page showing his campaign logo. He will also say in an e-mail today that he’s forming a campaign committee.

The D primary field is expected to clear for Braley, and he should be a strong contender in the general if recent polling is any indication. This race is winnable for Republicans, but time is now a bigger factor: Latham or King can no longer afford to dawddle in getting a statewide organization up and running. Braley vacates a D-leaning (but on the edge of competitiveness) House seat in IA-1 that should attract interest from both sides.

shamlet :: IA-Sen: Braley Running
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IA-Sen: Braley Running | 19 comments
After Latham?
I think it is pretty clear that Brandstad, the NRSC, and the establishment in general prefer Latham, but what if he declines? And what if King gets in? Brandstad already talked about how limited of a candidate he would be statewide. Would he push Reynolds into the race? Would she get national support for stopping the next Akin/Mourdock/Angle?

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Reynolds
I've been told by Republican political consultants that she's a "Palin-esque figure," whatever that means. I'm not sure that's someone who can or should stop Steve King. In fact, I'm not sure anyone could stop Steve King in a Republican primary in Iowa.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Maybe Vanderplaats could beat King
If the turnout is low enough.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Though it would also take
a third more moderate candidate as well.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
I think King is probably more well known, appeals to the same base and will have an easier time raising money.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
But Latham might be able to win if Vader Plaats got in, since Vander Plaats probably cuts more into King's base than Latham's (and you can't really say that about anyone else on the rather sparse list of other potential candidates.)

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking
if it's King, Vanderplaats and a really weak third wheel (say, Jim Leach - not that I think he'll run, just fits the profile). Leach could get 20-25% and Vanderplaats could win with 40.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Vander Plaats...
... won 40% in the '10 primary more by being not-Branstad for conservative voters, rather than by being Bob Vander Plaats. The Des Moines Register (link: http://www.desmoinesregister.c... ) and PPP (link: http://www.publicpolicypolling... ) both had Vander Plaats trailing far behind in three way races, with King in the lead (albeit with Latham, not Leach, but I doubt the Latham voters Leach would lose would break overwhelmingly for Vander Plaats over King.) Vander Plaats has a base with social issues first conservatives that keeps him from being entirely overshadowed, but I doubt he could hold more than that 20~% base if King was in the race.  

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Please, no negative campaigning in this primary!
That is the most important guideline for the GOP here.  If Republican X enables Braley to say "Even Republican X says Republican Y is an unelectable extremist," then I will blame Republican X for Braley's victory.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX
how can Latham win
besides attacking King on electability? Iowa has very conservative Republicans; King is probably a better fit for primary voters than Latham.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Latham
Priority #1 should be to talk King out of it. I hope he, Branstad, and Grassley sit him down and tell him that he'll have their full support in 2016.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
yes, but should that not occur
What is Latham's path to victory short of running hard on electability and attacking King for being too conservative for Iowa?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
And then we basically concede
the race in 2016 with King, especially in a Presidential year.  Look, King has to be beaten in the primary.  If you can convince him not to run, great, but no promises should be made to him.

Christie 2016  
[ Parent ]
Latham and King
If Latham does not run, King is probably as electable as anyone except maybe Reynolds.  Latham might not want to give up his House seniority.
   If Latham does run, I am fine with the "talk King out of it" strategy and it would probably succeed.
   If Latham and King both run, negative campaigning from either side is a bad idea.  It will lead to lukewarm support from supporters of the other candidate.  They will focus on other races in the fall and not work hard enough to beat Braley.
   If Latham wants to emphasize electability, that is fine.  I just do not want him to say anything that might hurt King if King wins the primary.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX
[ Parent ]
people better than King
Tom Latham
Terry Branstad
Kim Reynolds
Jim Nussle
Ben Lange
Marianette Miller-Meeks
Dave Archer (was that his name?)
80% of the Republicans in Iowa's state legislature.

Look, I'd love for your party to nominate him.  I think he's about as electable as Michele Bachmann or or Paul Broun or Todd Akin or Allen West or Louie Gohmert would be in a swing district.  He's one of the ten most controversial House Republicans.  I think Richard Mourdock is more electable.  So by all means, go for it.  But I don't see how you can't see how candidates like him underperform, particularly after West's defeat, Bachmann's near-defeat, and Akin and Mourdock's flameouts.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
I think the difference is
That King is a 5-going-on-6 term congressman from a fairly competitive district (R+5-ish for most of his career), and has won easily every time.  Unlike Bachmann he's not a serial under-performer despite having a pretty high and controversial national profile.  He's a decent fit for that district.

The problem is that Republicans need to do decently in the Eastern half of the state, which is pretty turned off by people like King and Bachmann, and that Latham is a much better fit for.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Allen West
did well in 2010, possibly even overperforming.  I don't think Todd Akin was an underperformer.  Controversial statements in a candidate's past nearly always end up hurting eventually.  I don't see why anyone would want to risk it.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Well
If Steve King loses the general, which I think he would, then it won't be because of another Republican saying he's unelectable.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
IA-1
Former Cedar Rapids mayor and SoS Paul Pate is being talked about as a R candidate. http://atr.rollcall.com/iowa-p...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
IA-Sen: Braley Running | 19 comments
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