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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


MO-8 Republican Convention Preview

by: shamlet

Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 12:00:00 PM EST


Tomorrow a handful of Republicans in Missouri's 8th district will hold a convention to pick a nominee to replace Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R), who announced her resignation last year. The process will will decide the Republican nominee, and almost certainly the next Representative for the heavily Republican seat. Assuming things don't go New York on us, Republican victory in the general election on June 4th (likely against Dem State Rep. Linda Black of Bonne Terre, who should be formally nominated next week against token opposition) should be a foregone conclusion.

Electorate & Process

The electorate consists of 86 Republican insiders, who will cast an even 100 votes thanks to some committee members holding multiple titles. Not all of the committee members are even from the 8th district. Here is a bit about the process from the Southeast Missourian:

During the Republican committee's meeting, nominations will take place through committee members using one minute each to vocally announce their choice of nominee, according to current proposed committee rules. No seconds of nominations will be required. Once nominations are taken, the committee will vote for nominated candidates by secret ballot after the candidates have three minutes each to address the committee. After a vote is taken, if no candidate has received the required 50 percent-plus-one-vote minimum needed to receive the nomination, the candidate receiving the fewest number of votes will be eliminated from the nomination process and a new vote will be taken. If there is a tie between two or more candidates for fewest votes, and that tie is two votes or fewer per candidate, all tying candidates are eliminated from consideration. If the total vote for each candidate tied is three votes or more, a new election will be held without a candidate having been eliminated. Any candidate who fails to garner a vote during any elections will be eliminated, along with the candidate who receives the fewest votes. After a vote has been taken, and if no candidate has received the required majority, any current candidate or committee member may request that the body stand at ease for up to 5 minutes. If no request is made, the meeting will proceed.

Candidates

There are 11 candidates in the running. Using a recent poll and general knowledge, I have produced a rough, subjective ranking. Here they are in descending order of how I'd handicap their chances of ultimately getting the 51 votes needed to capture the nomination.

Flip over for the full preview...
shamlet :: MO-8 Republican Convention Preview

The Big-Shots:

Party official Lloyd Smith was a former staffer to ex-Rep. Emerson, and was instantly viewed as the favorite to win the seat thanks to his good rapport with party insiders. That fact is why I was surprised to see him not leading in a poll of committee members, probably due to the strong overlap of his Emerson loyalist base with Kinder's. Lloyd Smith is definitely still in the mix, and if I were a betting man I'd still expect to see him as the nominee thanks to his inside game. He also has the advantage of not holding office, meaning he has no record to scrutinize and his selection would not trigger another special election. Add in the fact that he's probably the second choice of almost all Kinder supporters but far less toxic, and he's the front-runner in my book. That said, Lloyd Smith is nowhere near the lock for this nomination that he appeared to be when Emerson retired.

State Rep. Jason Smith of Salem was the suprise front-runner in the poll. The third-ranking Republican in the State House, Smith is a young and ambitious lawmaker. He is probably most famous for leading a recent effort to change the laws surrounding the LG succession procedure to prevent Nixon from appointing his own LG to serve until 2016 if Kinder leaves. Jason Smith was the clear leader in the poll, so it's wise to consider him a major factor in this race. Only the probable strong Kinder/Lloyd Smith overlap keeps him from being the front-runner.

State Rep. Todd Richardson of Poplar Bluff is, like Jason Smith, another young and ambitious lawmaker, and thought to be in line for the speaker's gavel in a few years. Richardson is apparently close to the chairman of the selection committee, as well as to the Emersons. Though he finished fourth in the poll, that may be selling him short as he seems like a decent compromise candidate if neither Smith can close the deal. A strike against him might be inexperience, as he has only been in the legislature for two years.

The Long-Shots:

Ex-Rep. Wendell Bailey of Willow Springs may have the most unique pitch of the candidates - if he is elected, he will retire in 2014, triggering an open primary with no incumbent. Bailey had scant support in the poll, but if the convention is hopelessly fragmented, he seems a logical bet to emerge as a compromise choice. Bailey was the congressman from the old MO-8 from 1980 to 1982 when he was defeated by Ike Skelton after their districts were merged; he then served as State Treasurer from 1984 to 1992. The big issue for him is his pro-choice positioning in his prior campaigns; If he has not had a conversion on the issue it could be very problematic. Bailey recived just three votes in the poll, but does have a path to victory: If he can consolidate the votes of the candidates who have almost no chance here, but could be in strong position in a primary - Crowell, Steelman, and Parker - he would vault into contention with the top three.

LG and Sauget Ballet afficionado Peter Kinder of Cape Girardeau is close to former Rep. Emerson and is (for some inexplicable reason) quite popular among party insiders. Kinder was a front-runner in the poll; however, between his scandals and the prospect of handing the LG job to a Democrat for at least 18 months (and maybe even until 2016) Kinder would be a profoundly unwise choice. Personally, though he placed third in the poll, I doubt he can convince enough committee members to slip through. He does seem to have some loyal fans though, and his inside connections may provide him enough personal pull on the committee.

Ex-State Sen. Jason Crowell of Cape Girardeau would be a force to be reckoned with in a primary. However, he is less than beloved by insiders, and there is speculation that Emerson didn't retire in the regular 2012 cycle precisely to keep him out of the seat. Crowell is known as a strong fiscal conservative, but also someone who does not play well with leadership - sort of the Tim Huelskamp of Jefferson City. He has a strong base among grassroots activists, but his appeal among more establishment members of the party is basically zero. As this convention is one of insiders, don't expect him to be chosen unless the delegates are really afraid of a grassroots rebellion.

The No-Shots:

Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman of Rolla probably would have won this race were it a primary among all these candidates, thanks to her high name recognition and some regret for passing her over twice for ultimately inferior candidates. This race is not decided by a primary, however, and Steelman has burnt a lot of bridges with the Republican establishment. It's hard to see how she becomes a significant factor.

Rancher Bob Parker of Raymondville mounted primary challenges to Emerson in 2010 and 2012, recieving about a third of the vote each time. He seems to be a serious candidate, but I doubt he is considered as a real possibility by the committee. He may be someone to watch for to challenge the eventual winner in the 2014 primary.

Judge Scott Lipke of Jackson, a former State Rep., has been under the radar because judicial rules prohibit him from openly campaigning. He attracted a small amount of support in the poll.

Cape Girardeau County Commissioner Clint Tracy embarrasingly did not attract the declared support of a single declared committee member in the poll. That said, he is an established name from his time in local office and prior service as a State Rep.

Attorney John Tyrell of Mountain Grove strikes me as being at Some Dude level but managed to get the support of one committee member.

------------------------------------------------------ 

State Sens. Dan Brown and Wayne Wallingford have both dropped out after recieving little to no support.

RRH will be keeping you updated with news tomorrow as we get it - be sure to check back!

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Would you mind...
if I translated this real quick and posted it on my Norwegian language blog? I'd normally make a quick summary, but I feel this deserves a full length post and I wouldn't want to take credit or plagiarize.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

Certainly
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Also, the special election is June 4, isn't it?

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Yep, you're right.
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The translation is here
sorry if your Norwegian's a little rusty...

http://amerikanskevalg.com/201...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.


[ Parent ]
One slight correction
Wendell Bailey did not run against Bill Emerson in 1982 after the 8th and 10th Districts were combined. He ran against Ike Skelton in the 4th, losing 55-45%.

42, R, NE-1.

fixed
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Did Emerson running for re-election cost us the Senate race?
What are your thoughts on this? If Emerson didnt run for re-election would that have changed the make up of the various statewide MO races? Would Steelman have dropped down and ran for congress allowing John Brunner to beat Akin? Would Kinder have run for Congress and Steelman or Brunner for Lt Gov?  

Doubtful
Akin was mostly third and then surged towards the end of the primary campaign. Steelman and Brunner were neck and neck, so I doubt either would have switched races.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Probably not
Crowell likely would have slid into the seat as he was termed out in 2012.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
doughtful
Steelman's base is cracked between three different congressional districts and so she would likely have still run for Senate.

Kinder might have run for the 8th congressional seat if it had been open though. I'm also doubting Steelman or Brunner were interested in Lt Governor; it's a powerless position but if either were interested Kinder running for re-election would not have stopped either from running for it.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Emerson not running for Senate may have cost us the race
Everyone--Akin included--was waiting on her decision, except Steelman. I suppose Akin still could have gotten in the race, but the winner of an Emerson-Steelman primary would have beaten McCaskill, Emerson potentially with Boozman-Lincoln numbers.

[ Parent ]
MO-8: Steelman drops out
according to twitter so no link


19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


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