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Weekend Open Thread

by: shamlet

Sat Feb 09, 2013 at 14:20:00 PM EST


Greetings from utterly snowed-in New England. A reminder that RRH will have full coverage of the MO-8 convention starting at 9:30 AM Eastern tomorrow.

Questions for this week -

1. New doubt has been cast on Hagel's potential to be confirmed. Can he make it through?

2. If the sequester goes forward, will Democrats find any success in attacking Republicans on it?

3. Any MO-8 predictions?

shamlet :: Weekend Open Thread
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Weekend Open Thread | 117 comments
Answers
1. Yes.
2. Yes.
3. Nope.

Democrat, NC-11

hm
1. He can assuming the Hamas thing isn't legit (I haven't seen it from mainstream news sources yet).  If it is, he's done.

2. I really don't know.

3. It won't be Kinder.  Also predictions, not predicitions.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


Some Answers
1.  Well, since at this point Hagel's nomination is proving nothing more than a huge beast of burden to the Obama administration, I'd think that he'll eventually get sunk.  I think the whole reason he hasn't dropped out already is that Obama needs a token Republican in his administration and Hagel's the only one he can find.  Maybe he should ask Colin Powell to try.

2.  Yes.  REPUBLICANS ARE SABOTAGING OUR ECONOMY AND TAKING MONEY FROM POOR PEOPLE TO SUPPORT TAX CUTS FOR BILLIONAIRES has worked pretty well for them so far, and I don't see any reason why they'd stop.

3.  It will be boring and uneventful.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


Hagel
Either he withdraws or he doesn't and he has the votes to be confirmed. Simple as that.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Levin Criticizes GOP for Financial Data
[ Parent ]
Interesting
This goes against CW as she is rising pretty quickly in the House leadership ranks.  I guess she figures she won't make it anywhere in the House anytime soon with the Dems in the minority. I also guess this means she does not see Toomey as vulnerable in 2016.  I have been largely out of the loop for a few months but that was a constant theme previously.  

Schwartz is the type that will draw challengers from eastern and western PA though.  I could see a black Philly Dem and a western PA Dem also jumping in and making this messy.

Also, she is a good catch for the Dems, but she has so major liabilities. Her history with Planned Parenthood would make her the social issues extremist in this race, which is not what you want to see as usually the less extreme candidate on social issues usually wins.  Also I foresee her having significant issues with private sector unions.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
I think her regional profile hurts
Pennsylvania Democrats rely on white Catholics more than most states. A socially liberal Jewish woman isn't really the best fit in the western half of the state.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Not sure how much
a Democrat needs from the western part of the state anymore.  Obama basically insulted the western part of the state and did historically bad there in 2012. He also didn't perform that well in the suburban/exurban areas in the Philly area (about what Kerry did in 2004).  Still he won the state by 5%.

Schwartz won't get as much black turnout, but she will do much better with suburbanites (especially women).  The GOP has made up the demographic deficit with strong candidates who performed well statewide (Ridge, Specter early on) or wave years (1994, 2010).  Corbett in 2014 is probably neither.        

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I don't see any 'much better' here
She got 69% in 2012 while Obama got 66% in the same district.

Joe Sestak tried the same Philadelphia only strategy in 2010, also coming from a congressional district. He put up massive margins there and 55% in Allegheny/Erie Counties. There's no guarantee that Schwartz can do the same.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Well on the flip side
she did represent much of Northeast Philly for her time in the State Senate and Congress, which is largely white Catholic and moderate conservative on social issues.  So it appears that she knows how to downplay that part of her record.
She has liabilities, but no more so that a guy who stated that bitter Pennsylvanians cling to their guns and religion.    


Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Allegheny and Luzerne
The problem comparing her with Obama is that she will be running against a guy who has a track record of over performing the Republican brand among whites.  You aren't going to beat a Republican if you cannot win Allegheny and Luzerne Counties.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Corbett has the ultrasound stuff
He's definitely the more extreme one on social issues.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
answers
#1: I hope not.
#2: I'm sure the media would blame Republicans (since they always do), but won't matter in Nov 14
#3: Not for tomorrow. But if it's anyone other than Kinder, the Republican nominee should get about 65% of the vote in the special election against the Democrat in this solid Republican seat. (Kinder would still win but might not crack 60%)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

24 hours in...
and Winslow's site is already better than Markey's. http://www.danwinslow.com/

R - MD-7

Answers
1. Yes. I give him at worst a 50:50 shot at conformation.

2. Unlikely. Although any grandstanding would be fair game.

3. Absolutely no idea.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Special elections in Minnesota
There are two special house elections Tuesday in Minnesota. I will be doing a diary on them tomorrow

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Might liveblog
There is a good chance I will be liveblogging the specials Tuesday night. The 14A race is particularly interesting- both campaigns have their act together. 19A is more interesting to see what Quist can do in this seat- but I don't think an R win is a realistic outcome.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
A live blog would be fantastic
I am excited to see the results, especially with 14A. I am pretty sure that 19A will be just a matter of margins. And in spite of the fact that both races I rated as Likely D, 14A is on the Lean D side of the ranking, and 19A is a curly one from being Safe D, just sue to the strength of the IP candidate, because there is zero chance Quist gets near 50%

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
No one who has cashed a paycheck from the "Friends of Hamas"
can be the US Secretary of Defense. I think that pretty much sums up my answer to question #1. If that accusation proves true than Hagel is done (and rightfully so).

2) They will try. Which is why the GOP is going all out to try and recast it as "Obama's sequester". See here:
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

3) It wont be Todd Akin!


Well
1. Hagel gets confirmed.  The admin and the Senate Dems hide and delay any info about any of Hagel's connections until after he is confirmed.  And probably blame the right for "spreading rumors".

2. I don't think the sequester will go forward, at least for now.  It will be delayed a few months.  We'll have a gov't shutdown, and who knows what happens after that.  

Christie 2016  


Not quite as damaging as Hagel's (accused) issue
But Obama's Treasury Secretary apparently had a significant stake in the offshore Cayman island tax shelter that Obama's demonized lately.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

I'm starting to wonder if anyone in the Obama administration bothers to vet their own nominees, or if opposition research has just gotten so strong enough to where we can find out how many bad relationships people had in highschool.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


Heh
My high school exploits are buried so deep even I don't remember them. It's better that way..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Vet them? How about talk to them?
I knew the questions Chuck Hagel would be asked? He clearly had never been asked them before. It doesn't appear they bothered to prepare him for his testimony.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
DGA Poll - Schwartz in good shape vs. Corbett
http://www.politicspa.com/brea...

Probably helped her get moving.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Rendell
And they may not be the only ones. Former Revenue Secretary and York businessman Tom Wolf said he's likely to run.

A source close to Rendell said the Guv would kick into gear for Wolf or another candidate or two.

"If Tom Wolf or another candidate he likes gets in, he will turn on the Philadelphia spigot. He won't turn on the Philadelphia spigot for Rob or Allyson," said the source.

That's interesting. I think this is a complete head fake in any case.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Agree
It sounds like this is a DGA trial ballon that is not getting local reception.  The DGA obviously don't realize you get local clearance for such things.

Schwartz + Wolfe + W Pa candidate = W Pa nominee.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
This is old ground but as for PA13
Was there any point in trying to jigger this to ultra vote sink PA01 & PA02 to save a long shot chance at PA13 when it opened?  

[ Parent ]
20 years ago maybe
It became moot when Robert Borski's district was dissolved.

Don't get greedy. In the late 1990s PA had a 11 Dem 10 Rep delegation.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
As Gordon Gekko said
Greed is good  

[ Parent ]
Tried last decade
The previous PA-13 was an attempt to do this, but it failed and caused two other districts to be endangered.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
pa-01 is intentionaly not max packed
Bob brady wanted the black population limited. So pa-13 got some.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Kinda sorta
PA-13 was held by Larry Coughlin for 24 years and John Fox had it for 2 terms. It was most of Montgomery County.

http://www.redistricting.state...

The 2002 redistricting was an attempt to make PA-7 safer and grab PA-6 from Holden by taking out some good Montgomery county areas and moving some of PA-6 into PA-17. They put in some of PA-3 into PA-13 and created a district that was D+7 Gore. The idea was that maybe a Republican could win the seat. Of course D+7 was too Democratic to win. Had they gone with something closer to the 1990s seat, it might have been winnable.

That did mean that PA-6 and PA-7 were too swingy. It was the worst of both worlds. This is a D+15 district and it's as safe as a D+7.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Obviously we don't want to hurt Meehan & Gerlach
Just wondered if we could've peeled off enough Rs & ConservaDems from the other Philly seats to give us a mathematical chance against  some Democratic mistake nominee? Now we don't  

[ Parent ]
PA-13 & CTIronMan
Mike Fitzpatrick lost in 2006 because of fickle conservaDems in the Great Northeast who decided he wasn't a good enough fit.

The problem is, Mike Fitzpatrick over-performs big time in Lower Bucks because he is exactly the right Republican to appeal to the blue collar, beer drinking, union member, Philadelphia "Iggles" enthusiasts... the type of NE Philly/lower Bucks folks who threw snowballs at Santa.

If Fitzy--who also has the right name and branch of Christianity for NE Philly--couldn't keep it happy, I don't know who could. Plus, you'd have to find someone who would please those voters AND people in places like Abington and Upper Dublin Townships. Good luck with that. You'd do more damage to the fiscally prudent, socially moderate or quiet Republican brand that still allows us to compete in the non-blue collar areas of Southeastern Pennsylvania.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
My background keeps pushing the envelope
I cut my teeth with candidates who could win Waterbury & Weston at the same type. And I despise conceding seats; like Earl Weaver hated to concede outs  

[ Parent ]
Waterbury and Weston
You know, Rowland only won both of those places because the loathsome Lowell Weicker had done something that each group didn't like. The party's coalition was also far, far less defined in the 90s, and Waterbury had yet to experience a lot of minority growth. The world has moved on since 1994: an entire generation has become eligible to vote, quickly changing demographics have moved places like Waterbury and NE Philly out of contention, and technology has made it far harder for divergent types of candidates running as Republicans in different areas to run on different platforms and make different appeals without voters in other areas hearing about it, and potentially being turned off by the other candidate's rhetoric.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Some truth in that, but
Technology & demographics haven't changed that dramatically. Swap out Bristol for Waterbury and you can still make this work. But what do I know? I've only done politics since before your parents probably met each other  

[ Parent ]
Demographics
Technology & demographics haven't changed that dramatically.

Yes, demographics have changed dramatically. Waterbury and New Britain now have large hispanic populations. NE Philly is way less white and way less winnable.

Once again, if Mike Fitzpatrick couldn't win Bristol in a federal election, who's going to?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Technology
Technology & demographics haven't changed that dramatically.

Technology has changed quite a bit since 1994. I may have only been 2 in 1994, but as a student of Computer Engineering, I know that information travels much, much faster today than in 1994. For example, most homes have internet...that was not the case in 1994, and internet connections are 150 to 200 times faster (at least) than they were in 1994. In 1994, if a candidate said something stupid, ala Todd Akin, you probably wouldn't have heard it until you watched the evening news, and more likely, you wouldn't have heard about it until you read the morning paper the next day. You also couldn't see the ads of candidates running in far away places like you can today by going to YouTube. You also didn't have social networking and blogging where you could get the thoughts of like-minded people. My point here is that technology has certainly changed, and those changes have made it far, far harder for candidates running in one place to not completely turn off voters living in other places.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
^What he said
Plus, demographics in NE Philly, where precincts are often drawn block by block or so, change so rapidly that doing a PA-07-in-MontCo style precinct selection could really backfire within a few years.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
We're talking about destabilizing a D seat
It "backfires" we're no worse for wear  

[ Parent ]
Are we overpredicting 2006?
Rendell got 90% of the Philly vote & 70% of the suburban vote. Safe to say no ConservaDems bolted the top line and Rs were crushed with unafffilates. Too deep a hole to climb out of that cycle? Amazing Gerlach survived  

[ Parent ]
PA-06
It's just amazing that Jim Gerlach held that seat down over the decades. This summer, I may compile data from his '04 and '08 races and map out his paths to victory in terms of how far ahead of Bush and McCain he ran in different municipalities in order to hold on in that tough district.

Who in the world thought that it was a good idea to tie together Lower Merion, Exton, Downingtown, Coatesville, half of Reading, Phoenixville, Norristown, and Pottstown and try to use northern Chester County to keep the district Republican enough for Gerlach to win? It's amazing that Gerlach had such staying power.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
DRA
I did the 5 Delaware Valley counties, Lancaster and Berks in 7 districts. Here's before and after McCain:

Brady: D+25 to D+35
Fattah D+37 to D+35
Meehan R+2 to D+1
Gerlach E to D+1
Schwartz D+12 to D+2
Fitzpatrick E to D+1
Pitts R+3 to E

One thing to keep in mind when looking at these numbers is that Brady, Fattah, and Schwartz all had their districts move left in 2012, while Gerlach, Meehan, Fitzpatrick and Pitts all moved right. So the above numbers could be misleading. I'm sure some of the Schwartz that move left is in with Gerlach or Fitzpatrick here.

So they could've put Schwartz in a swing district, but it would've been risky.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
If you took the current PA map of 1,2 & 13
And did this:
A) pack Rs & conservaDems in 13
B) pack blacks in 2
C) pack all other D nabes (and Overbrook) in 1

What are the PVI's & ethnic balances?


[ Parent ]
CTIronMan
Why don't you try this out and post your map? I'm too busy with school to dabble into this right now but you've been talking about it a lot so you should try it out.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I'm busy with Nemo
Besides not sure the precise cut post 2012 remap  

[ Parent ]
How much did you recieve
In Brooklyn we received a meager 8 inches.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
30
I'm in the bleeping bullseye  

[ Parent ]
Heh
We had a mere dusting of maybe two or three inches here in the Delaware Valley.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
*Over the decade


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Tried last decade
The previous PA-13 was an attempt to do this, but it failed and caused two other districts to be endangered.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Hagel nomination likely to be approved
1. I think the Hagel nomination will likely be approved unless some cracks start appearing in the solid Dem Senate support for him; so far I see no evidence of that. What is interesting is that Hagel got criticized for his gaffe where he indicated that Obama's policy toward Iran's nuclear weapon development was one of containment; he later reversed himself during the hearing.  In reality though, I think containment is going to be Obama's policy.  If he was seriously considering a military strike option why would he nominate the dovish Hagel?  The "all options are under consideration policy" is a convenient fiction.  

2. I would say the odds are about 50/50 that the sequester will go through as opposed to a postponement of a few months.  Obama is banking on enough "military-industrial complex" Republicans not going along with the sequester that the can gets kicked down the road.  Some members of Congress are going to have to decide if defense spending is more important to them than deficits.  If the sequester goes through of course the Dems and MSM will say the Repubs are "unresonable" for not accepting Obama's spending reduction plan, which has a dollar in new taxes for every dollar in spending cuts.  However, I don't know how much that will resonate in Nov. 2014; after all Obama and the Dems agreed to the sequester concept.  


Another right wing attack on Bob Menendez
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02...

When is the right wing media going to stop these baseless political attacks?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I guess the NY Times could be called rightwing
if you consider their Editorial's prudishness in mentioning Sen Menendez's dalliances with hookers as a nod to the papers conservative sensibilities.

[ Parent ]
Tongue in cheek here
Menendez is depicting the whole thing as a right wing vendetta when so much of the reporting is coming from the left wing MSM.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Il-Gov; Dillard in
http://www.saukvalley.com/mobi...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Rush, Davis to Endorse Kelly in IL-2
http://atr.rollcall.com/illino...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Indiana may limit out-of-state college voters
GOP State Rep Peggy Mayfield, who represents part of college town Bloomington, wants to clear up the residency laws in Indiana, but it is coming off as an attack on college students.  As Mayfield says:

I hate to say the student issue was one of the most visible ways to get this conversation started," Mayfield said. "I could have said 'temporary workers don't gain residency if they live in Indiana.' Nobody would have paid attention because, honestly, that law is already on the books and nobody pays attention.

Though, it does appear to be an attack on college students when a big college town is in your district.  It does seems odd that college students have the option to choose where their vote is, and many NY or IL students in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, etc... believed their vote matter more in Indiana than back home.

http://indianapublicmedia.org/...

http://www.heraldtimesonline.c...

33, R, IN-09


*Shrugs*
I voted here in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and had no qualms doing so because of how in tune I am with the state's politics, even at a local level. I even plan to vote in municipal and countywide races.

What frightened me was when I asked students I had previously asked if they had done research below the Presidency--and they had said no--if they voted for Congress or State Rep and many people said they just pulled the straight Democratic level, which was frightening. People who don't want to learn about the area's politics should only be voting for President if they're voting out of state. Funnily enough, my two closest friends here at a very liberal school voted for Romney and Meehan (and neither are white Christians... one's Dominican and one's Jewish). I guess conservatives gravitate towards each other.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Dunno. The parties are almost perfectly separated
politically. I'd vote for 99.5% of Democrats over every Republican-- the exception being the lone LaRouchie here and there.

The only area where research really matters are non-partisan offices, but honestly, most locals don't do that either.


[ Parent ]
Ticket splitting
Even in a precinct that's dominated by my college, Meehan ran 6 or 7 points ahead of Romney. Some college kids are obviously interested in ticket splitting.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Democrat good Republican bad
I know people who operate entirely within this philosophy. There's no need to look at the candidates.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Haha, don't get me started on a ticket-splitter rant.
I disdain those people.

There's no coherent rationale that you could use to determine your vote choice that leaves you voting Obama/Meehan. Maybe some jackass fetishism about split government.

Of course, Moderates and Independents also have been shown to have the least political knowledge and the lowest general IQ.  


[ Parent ]
The constituency work of many Reps & Senators
Creates "value added" over the generic partisan. Plus, a lot of folks are unwilling to vote for a Lionel Hutz type figuring if a party isn't willing to nominate a decent candidate they arent deserving of support  

[ Parent ]
I know they do, but that's crazy.
The constituency work argument works for primaries, but if you have any ideological foundation to how you vote at all-- and if you don't you probably should stay home-- it's infinitely more important to get someone who supports the policies you do than someone who seems folksy and saved a puppy from a tree once.  

[ Parent ]
If you have a navy base in your state
Or desperately need a levee or a bridge built; I assure you it makes a huge amount of difference if the guy you vote for is lobbying for the district instead of being another partisan foot soldier  

[ Parent ]
What he's saying, though,
is that while that stuff matters, having one more vote for Nancy Pelosi or John Boehner should be more important than a dam.  In practice, that's not the case because most voters aren't as political as us.  But to me it seems a logical argument.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Ideology vs District and Competence issues
There's a lot of people who voted Obama/Mike Rogers. There were a ton of Bush/Bart Stupak voters.

Ideology is only part part of congress. It's a big part, but still one. Bart Stupak was a pro-life and sometimes pro-gun democrat so there were cross RTL/NRA votes for him.

You have major local issues that are important. Military bases, farm interests, trade issues, and even customer service. Stupak's office was well known for good service. That's how he got 60%+ almost every time even as Bush won his district twice.

Then there's other people who vote against all incumbents.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Really? Why?
I sometimes ticket-split, especially in state races. Sometimes I regret choosing the Republican, but sometimes I don't.

But what's your philosophy against ticket-splitting?

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
for legislative positions
the argument is that whichever party you want in charge, you should vote for that party.  I would never, ever vote Republican for Senate or House, but I'd consider it for Governor or any other statewide office, as well as Mayor/County Supervisor, etc.  I supported Arnold in 2006, for example.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Lol I did too.
That's one of the Republicans I regret supporting.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
that's not a bad thing
Maybe they won't show up for the midterms then.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Here we have to vote with our permanent residency
Back when Mike Rogers was a state senator, he pushed through the law having us register where our drivers license is.

That was a big factor in 2000 when Mike ran for Congress, as Michigan State was (and still is) in the 8th District. Mike won by 88 votes.

I went to MSU and had to vote in Livingston County. Dems are still griping about that law today.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Out of staters
My high school probably sends around 100 kids to Michigan and Michigan State (the number's that high probably because their parents can be milked for full tuition). Do my former high school classmates who go to school there get to vote in Michigan?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
If they make it "permanent residency"
A lot of Chicagoland went to MSU when I was there. Easy to reach by train, and close enough to go back home for weekend visit. Same as a drive "up north" timewise for many of us.

Some use their dorm/apt/house as their residency, both in state and out of state. Many don't because of (parents) insurance reasons.

I voted in Livingston County. While I was more Right-libertarian than R in my early days and split my ticket, I much preferred the R's than the D's. The funny part is that Mike's infamous bill had no affect on me since it was the same 8th district.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Answers
1. Hagel will, unfortunately, make it through the nomination. Every single Demcorat will support him and I'm sure at least 5 Republicans will vote for him. I just hope he doesn't endorse anymore liberal Democrats in U.S. Senate elections.

2. Both parties have responsibility when it comes to the sequester. The question really is will the military wing of the Republican party collapse? Also, will it hurt the economy?

3. I'm rooting for Sarah Steelman. We need a woman to succeed Emerson. But it's impossible to predict who these local politicians will pick.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican


Gates an Davis
As I suspected, the Gates speech was an address. it was Charter Day. Go figure. Anyway, Artur Davis is coming to address the CRs and I'll be going this time. I will be able to ask questions. Post any here.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Is he still thinking about a State Senate run
now that the new map is dead?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Artur Davis
When will he be moving to Loudoun County (or McLean)?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I would ask him
Whether he plans to cancel his Alabama voter registration before he runs for office in Virginia.

Registrant Detail
Name ARTUR DAVIS
Status ACTIVE
Reason ACTIVE REGISTRANT

Districts

District Name District Type
CONGRESSIONAL DIST 07 CONGRESSIONAL
STATE SENATE 18 SENATE
STATE HOUSE 54 STATE HOUSE
STATE BOE DIST 04 STATE SCHOOL
BIRMINGHAM DIVISION JEFFERSON CO DIVISION
COMM DIST 2 - SANDRA L. BROWN COMMISSION
CITY SCHOOLS COUNTY SCHOOL
BHAM SCH DIST 5 BOX A LOCAL SCHOOL
BIRMINGHAM MUNICIPALITY
SPECIAL ELEC NOT ASSIGNED SPECIAL ELECTION DIST
FIRE DIST NOT ASSIGNED FIRE
BIRMINGHAM DISTRICT 5 CITY


Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
TX-AG; Bush taking a look
@evanasmith: Prominent national conservative activist tells me @georgepbush now looking at TX attorney general race in #2014

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

That's great
That position is far more prominent and significant than the Land Commissioner position.  

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Corbett vs Schwartz
I am guessing that Schwartz would be a slight favorite in the general election. Seems like Corbett can't even consolidate the Republican votes.  

Scott, Corbett, Snyder
Basing on polls, it seems like they are the most vulnerable Republicans in 2014 in a two-party matchup. Someone should really primary Scott in Florida. It seems ridiculous that no one won't even run in the primary against a very unpopular governor. At least, Corbett and Snyder have chances in their respective races.  

Not worried about Snyder
MI is getting off the canvas and O isn't on the ballot to juice Motown turnout  

[ Parent ]
Depends if the Dems
can get the new Emergency Manager law on the ballot for repeal.  If they can, it will probably juice up turnout in Detroit.  


Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
That turns the '14 election into a referendum on Detroit
If the Rs don't sweep under that scenario MI is doomed  

[ Parent ]
Well it was on the ballot in 2012
and the EM provision was rejected by the voters by a 53-47 margin and Obama won by nearly 10%.
Non-Detroit Dems dislike the GOP far more than they do Detroit.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Facts on the ground have changed
Snyder can say: you gave em another chance and they blew it  

[ Parent ]
Scott has 100 million dollars
to use to nuke any primary challenger.  Every Florida Republican saw what happened to Bill McCollum.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Corbett
I am betting Corbett does not run for reelection.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
What do you think could be the GOP's chance
to retain the office if Corbett won't run. I hope Meehan runs if Corbett doesn't run.  

[ Parent ]
Much better than if Corbett is the nominee
My sense is that Corbett has taken a beating in the state largely due to the whole Penn State situation.  He probably would lose to any credible Democrat, and I agree with Ryan that he probably bows out or gets primaried.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Agree
Corbett is mortally wounded because the Penn State sycophants cannot get over the Sandusky scandal and the university's complicity in Sandusky's conduct.  The new Paterno report is just another example of how a significant portion of the Pennsylvania's population cannot admit Penn State did something wrong and will blame anyone who refuses to cowtow to their revisionist history.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Agree
Corbett is mortally wounded because the Penn State sycophants cannot get over the Sandusky scandal and the university's complicity in Sandusky's conduct.  The new Paterno report is just another example of how a significant portion of the Pennsylvania's population cannot admit Penn State did something wrong and will blame anyone who refuses to cowtow to their revisionist history.

27, Republican, PA-6  

26, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
MD-6; Mooney resigns as state chairman, might run for congress
http://m.washingtonpost.com/lo...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Good
we need a better chairman.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
SD-Sen; GOP readies for younger Johnson
http://www.argusleader.com/app...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

KY-Sen
That articled reminded me when Ashley Judd was on The Next Generation.  How I loved Ensign Lefler in my middle school years.

[ Parent ]
a large bunch of the 2011 spending cuts were fake
For instance they cut census spending by $6 billion from 2010.

Of course, there was no census scheduled in 2011.

It's all a bunch of smoke and distraction.

27, R, PA-07.


Inhofe: Hagel gets 60 votes or we're filibustering
https://twitter.com/johnrobert...

I know Hagel's at 57 votes right now, but I'm awfully skeptical he's reached 60. Given Kirk's opposition, I don't see Collins voting in support. Murkowski was probably a lean-yes before Levin annoyed her.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


The problem here is
that several Republicans, including John McCain, have said that they would oppose a filibuster against Hagel (by voting for cloture), even if they would eventually vote against him.  

http://www.foxnews.com/politic...

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
How on earth does this make sense?
nt

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Good government senators
No reason why the threshold for any President to fill out his own cabinet should be 60 votes.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Lynch tacks center, eying Brown supporters
http://www.politico.com/story/...

I just can't fathom today's Massachusetts Democratic electorate embracing a Ray Flynn-style social moderate.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Some would.
I could see some voters who voted for Pocahontas also supporting Lynch; maybe 50-55% of them. In this state that could be enough.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Lynch
can't win unless Markey sleepwalks.  There aren't enough blue-collar White Democrats.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
The one way that Lynch could win
is if the unions completely unite behind Lynch and do a massive GOTV operation.  While union strength is rapidly declining, in a special election primary like this one, it may matter.  Labor support plus socially conservative Dems would give Lynch a path to 50% in the primary.  But I doubt this will happen because there is nothing to suggest that Markey is weaker on labor issues.
Although if Lynch were to win the primary, Dan Winslow better be ready to pounce.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Lynch is far to the left socially of Ray Flynn
At least today, though Flynn would probably have had to move left as well to remain in the Massachusetts party. He supports Gay Marriage, Immigration Reform, is Pro-Labor(which increasingly is viewed as a social issue by New England liberals).

He would not be their first choice, but he is far off John Silbur. The problem for any Republican, including Winslow(who I think is the 2nd best get after Brown) is to show social liberals they would better on those issues. Will Winslow support Democrats breaking a Republican filibuster of a liberal Supreme Court Nominee? Does Winslow support federal funding for planned Parenthood?

The real change in Massachusetts right now as opposed to 1994 is there is no real way for any Republican, no matter their views to get to the left of any democrat, no matter theirs, on the actual impacts of social issues. And the social liberals in Massachusetts are probably the most nationally engaged voters in the state(as opposed to the Blue Collar Brown types).

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Don't know if this is new
But DRA has updated, adding in all the new CDs.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


I just loaded Indiana, and I still got the 2002 districts.
Which state did you load?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
You gotta check the box in the top left
Its right under the place where you pick which state you want.  It gets blocked by the Drop-down menu when you open it up.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
its also disabled for Missouri
The 2010 voting districts checkbox right below states is disabled for Missouri

If instead its the one to the right before you choose a state; in that state, it doesn't turn on and the box doesn't come back after opening Missouri

(Missouri is even more obvious than Indiana since we lost a seat)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Thanks


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Another day, more Menendez corruption
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013...

He might leave the senate to the big house.  

26, Male, R, NY-10


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