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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


MO-8 Republican Convention Liveblog

by: shamlet

Sat Feb 09, 2013 at 09:30:00 AM EST


Today 86 Republican party officials will meet to select the likely next representative from MO-8. Before things heat up, be sure to check out our preview of the race.

2:21 ET- State Rep. Jason Smith of Salem will get to remove the "State" from his title in June. He will be the strong favorite against fellow State Rep. Linda Black (D) barring any Indie shenannigans.

2:19 ET- Round 6: J Smith 55 Kinder 22 Crowell 21

2:15 ET- It looks like it's over, one way or the other. They're already recommending lunch spots.

2:13 ET- Rumor is that Crowell's voters may be switching to Kinder. 

2:00 ET- Lloyd Smith out. Could there be some sort of anti-Jason pact brewing?

1:56 ET- Round 5: J Smith 47 Crowell 21 Kinder 12 L Smith 11  Richardson 6. Richardson out. Looks like Jason Smith has this just about sewn up.

1:51 ET- There is a rumor circulating that Crowell may run as an indie if Jason Smith is the nominee.

1:34 ET- Round 4: J Smith 39 Crowell 20 L Smith 13 Kinder 12 Richardson 9 Parker 5. Parker out. Lloyd Smith surprisingly collapsing.

1:29 ET- News of Mizzou leading Ole Miss gets the biggest reaction of the day.

1:27 ET- Judging from twitter feeds, Jason Smith is apparently quite the polarizing figure at this gathering.

1:15 ET- That was a surprising round. Crowell and Kinder are getting something of a second wind, while Parker supporters seem to be giving up their cause much earlier than expected, and the Smiths' momentum has stalled.

1:12 ET- Round 3: J Smith 34 L Smith 16 Crowell 15 Kinder 11 Richardson 10 Parker 9 Bailey 3. Bailey out.

12:54 ET- I think we can say with confidence the next Rep. from MO-8 will be Congressman Smith. The key thing to watch here is Richardson's bloc. If they voted for Richardson based on biography, they'll go to Jason Smith. If they voted for Richardson on speaking ability, they'll go to Lloyd Smith.

12:52 ET- Round 2: J Smith 33 L Smith 17 Parker 13 Crowell 12 Richardson 11 Kinder 7 Bailey 3 Tracy 1 Lipke 1. Lipke and Tracy out. Kinder's support probably going to Lloyd Smith as expected. Jason Smith picking up some from the also-rans.

12:43 ET- Bob Parker won't win today, but whoever does should be looking over their shoulder for him in the 2014 primary. He has some very dedicated boosters.

12:30 ET- Round 1: J Smith 28 L Smith 14 Parker 13 Richardson 11 Kinder 10 Crowell 10 Lipke 5 Bailey 4 Tracy 2 Tyrell 1. Tyrell eliminated.

12:04 ET- Really seems like a 3-man race between Richardson and the Smiths. Kinder as an outside longshot. Richardson and Lloyd Smith seemed like the best speakers, but Jason Smith got a bigger reaction.

11:46 ET- If you're playing a drinking game, the phrase of the day is "stop spending". I think that exact phrase has appeared in every speech.

11:30 ET- Nominations in order: Parker, Tyrell, Richardson, Bailey, J. Smith, Tracy, L. Smith, Kinder, Crowell, Lipke

11:20 ET- Rancher and former Emerson primary challenger Bob Parker apparently has a huge number of supporters in the room. Not clear how many of those have a vote though.

11:10 ET - Word in the room is that they expect 3-4 rounds. 

10:50 ET- Live video now up. 

shamlet :: MO-8 Republican Convention Liveblog
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Looks like Mr. Smith is going to Washington...
But will it be Lloyd or Jason?

Mainstream Dem.  

Looks more likely to be Jason
He only needs to pick up 5 more votes.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
11 more
98 votes; some people can vote twice.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
vote early and often


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I'm going for Crowell
He has more political experience. Not to mention he's a state senator while Jason Smith was a state representative.  

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

Looks like he will lose
Well I just hope he doesn't run as an independent. Don't be a sore loser. Jason Smith, at 32, will become one of the youngest members of the HOR.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
I hope he gets a strong primary challenge
No one should get a free ride to congress, especially in a safe seat.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

He might in 2014
But there's no primaries associated to a special election in Missouri, so he gets a free ride this time.

This district is so Republican than a serious Independent could cause the Democrat to finish in third place.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
That's my point, as he is obviously the nominee right now


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
lol just wait a year
He will have some significant Republican challengers in 2014 I guarantee it. In Missouri, state representatives only represent 31,000 people. His congressional district is 700,000 people. I'm hoping Sarah Steelman runs in 2014.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Your favorite candidate was selected at a convention in Utah. You can go through an entire political career in Utah and never face primary voters. I wouldn't go so far as to say that Jason Smith was just handed a seat.

As a matter of principle, though, I agree that every member of Congress should face primary voters each cycle.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
First of all, Mia Love is not my favorite candidate
Second, the convention system in Utah although unique has some Democratic principles in it, as convention delegates must first get elected by registered voters. Not only that, but Love had to go through a tough general election.

That's why I'm not necessarily upset about Rodney Davis or David Joyce, as they will continually get tough general election matchups. But, here Jason Smith was just handed a seat. This is a modern version of the smoke filled rooms that we've all read in history books.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
David Joyce
That seat's at least R+4. He's not "continually getting tough general election matchups." That scenario only exists in the DCCC's dream world.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
You don't know that
Besides, even if he does from 2016 onward, he will have a tough race this cycle.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Not really
His "tough race" will be as tough as any first time candidate's race in an R+4 district in the north. Joyce has been elected before in a large portion of the district, has a solid record as a candidate, and it's been proven that LaTourette will cut ads for him if he wants him to (he cut two ads for Joyce in 2012).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Okay, Joyce is safe according to you
I doubt most prognosticators will agree, including Sabato and Cook who have it as Leans GOP, which means it will be competitive (what I have been saying).  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Did the words "Joyce is safe" leave my mouth?
He's about as vulnerable as Mike Fitzpatrick was last cycle. Some slip up or poor campaigning could have made the race interesting, but so long as he runs a good race and fundraises well, he'll be more than fine. The race is likely Republican.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Democrats in Northeast and Midwest
2012 was a decent Democratic year and they hold just three seats that are R+ in the Northeast and Midwest. (I'm not counting Minnesota or West Virginia in that.) They have NY-1, which is R+2, IL-12, which is R+1, and NH-1, which is R+1.

An R+4 seat will likely be a tough climb in 2016, let alone 2014.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Exactly
Joyce would have to have a massive screw up to lose. He's fine.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Not if Cafaro runs
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
That's the caveat
I still think it'd be a lean R affair with her in the race.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Well, what do you think a tough general election match up means?
He's going to face a challenge and will have to work to keep the seat. Whereas in MO-8, Smith can sleep walk through every general election.

I don't know if it is your youth or a general lack of drama in your life, but for some reason you want to start ridiculous arguments with me. I originally made a statement that I hope Smith gets a challenge because no one should be given a safe seat for life. Yet, you bring up Mia Love and particularly in a snarky way. I suggest rather than replying to me in this way you use up your energy in a more positive fashion.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Pushes the number of Smiths in the House to 5


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


other common ones
4: Miller, Johnson
3: Young, Thompson, Scott, Rogers, Davis, Bishop (!)

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I think it's funny
that the 2 most senior Republicans in the House are both named Young.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
We just need to get
a young stud in his 20s whose last name is something like "Old" to run and win.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
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