Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

Please read our site Terms of Use.


Political Roundup for February 11th, 2013

by: Daniel Surman

Mon Feb 11, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


President

Rand Paul: Rand has been booked by the Tea Party Express to give the Tea Party response to the State of the Union (the last two years the response was given by Herman Cain and Rep. Michelle Bachmann). More and more, the two most obvious candidates to run in 2016 looks like Rubio and Rand, who didn't really go out of his way to boost Rubio when asked.

Senate

South Dakota: A snarky take on the state of the upcoming race for South Dakota's Senate seat. Republicans are already preparing their arguments against US Attorney Brendan Johnson(D) if his father, Senator Tim Johnson, does not run again (which seems more and more likely). One of the big arguments against him? That it will be argued he owes his law career to his father. Former Governor Mike Rounds (R) is already running here.

New Jersey:
The pressure builds against Senator Bob Menendez (D) as the New York Times encourages him to resign his gavel on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Beyond the usual conflict of interest stuff that has been building (inappropriately lobbying for his donor to federal agencies, taking flights to the Dominican Republic on said donor's dime, and generally riding that gravy train), the Times notes he "was never a distinguished choice for Chairman" of his committee. Owww.

Iowa: Rep. Steve King (R) is playing up the outside meddling card as much as he can against Karl Rove's anti-Akin/Mourdock/outsider insurgent candidate Super PAC. Now King is saying that while "it's under deliberation of course," he does not want to yet make an annoucement "in the face of the issue that Karl Rove has raised." He went on to say “We’ve got to decide first who’s going to nominate people for public office in America: Somebody outside the state with a big checkbook, or the people of Iowa.”

Kentucky: It is remarkable just how friendly Senators McConnell and Paul are in public now, but that's what happens when you have two prominent politicians looking at bigger things than intra-party politics in Kentucky, effusively praising each other at a local Lincoln Day dinner last Friday. Paul, whose former campaign manager now manages McConnell's campaign, is clearly not throwing support behind a primary to McConnell if that mythical prospect ever appears.

Massachusetts: Yeah, the massive blizzard is not doing any favors to State Rep. Dan Winslow (R), who must collect 10,000 signatures by February 27th and go through a convoluted turn-in process. He already tossed in $100k of his own money, which may be the cost of collecting all of those signatures.

More Massachusetts: Rep. Steven Lynch (D) is claiming the mantle of Scott Brown for himself in his Democratic primary with Rep. Ed Markey, even though Brown is a Republican. Lynch's campaign seems to hope that with a less competitive general, more Brown supporters will simply vote in the Democratic primary.

Governor

Illinois: State Senator Kirk Dillard (R) is not hiding his interest in running for Governor, noting "it's really no secret" that he is running again at a local Reagan Day dinner.

Massachusetts: Former Senator Scott Brown (R) said in an interview Sunday that he will announce a "potential TV deal" with one of a "couple of media outlets." We had already heard he was shopping around at Fox, but not anywhere else. Never fear, he refused to take a gubernatorial bid off the table and seemed quite open to the idea- plus, he called himself a moderate several times, a sure sign a Republican wants a political future in the Bay State.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) is now "80% in" the Governor's race, according to her local party chairman and confirmed by her Chief of Staff. The DGA seems to like the idea as well- in a recent poll they conducted, she led Governor Corbett 58-31 on the informed ballot test. Treasurer Rob McCord (D) has also looked like a candidate for awhile, but with Schwartz' $3 million warchest and potential DGA support, we will have to see if there is a push to get McCord out of the race. Also of note, State Senator Daylin Leach wants Schwartz' congressional seat if she runs, saying "I support Allyson for anything."

House

MO-08: On Saturday, a group of Republican Party officials in the district selected State Rep. Jason Smith over State Senator Crowell, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, and a handful of other candidates after numerous rounds of voting.

IL-02: The first congressional endorsements are in, from Reps. Bobby Rush and Danny Davis for Cook County Chief Administrative Officer Robin Kelly. Kelly also just wrapped up an endorsement from the Chicago Tribune.

Speaking of this seat, it seems former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. has finally signed a plea deal with federal prosecutors.

FL-09: Some people never learn.

Asked whether Democrats, who fiercely protested George W. Bush’s aggressive use of executive power to fight terrorism, should be protesting President Barack Obama’s similar policies, Grayson quickly pivots to an attack on Republicans.

“They love the taste of blood,” Grayson said. “They’re consistently pro-war, consistently pro-killing foreigners. They view the entire world as either a massive inconvenience or something they feel is a personal threat. One or the other. They don’t recognize the world as full of human beings.”


Rep. Grayson went on to compare himself to infamous former Louisiana Governor Huey Long and seemingly took no lessons from his defeat in 2010.

SC-01: Former Governor and Rep. Mark Sanford cannot escape his past on the trail, and he has confronted the issue of his very public affair head-on. Still, with a crowded field of candidates, Sanford seems to be the name that sticks out at events across the district. But we all knew it would be like this- the also-rans will try to get second place, get into a runoff with Sanford, and then lay into the former Governor's indiscretions.

Miscellaneous

Georgia: A good read on how politics in Georgia has shifted from the rural south to metro and suburban Atlanta.

TX-SD-6: The special election runoff for this safe Democratic Houston seat has been set for March 2nd. There is little policy difference between the two Democrats in the runoff, State Rep. Carol Alvarado and former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia. So the winner will be in office around mid-March, and until then the seat will remain vacant.

MN-HD-14A:
This morning, Saint Cloud schools are starting late while MNDoT is advising no travel in the area as bad weather conditions sweep Minnesota. All of this is happening while GOTV cranks up for tomrrow's special election in this swingy seat.

Michigan Democrats: It is nice to see intra-party squabbles on the other side of the aisle, with a national vs. state take on the race for Chair of the Michigan Democratic Party between longtime incumbent Mark Brewer and national Democratic operative Lon Johnson. Johnson has already wrapped up support from the Teamsters, UAW, the Democratic congressional delegation, and Senator Levin, so it sounds like Brewer could be in trouble.
Daniel Surman :: Political Roundup for February 11th, 2013
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Minnesota weather
The harshest snowfall was well west of there. And Minnesota is very good at clearing copious amounts of snow, particularly when the weather is above 15 degrees, because the chemicals work best between 15-32. I would be surprised if there is much lingering effect tomorrow.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Right
It just means fun for all the GOTV workers yesterday and to a certain extent today.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Pope Benedict XVI is stepping down at the end of the month
This counts as a foreign election, right?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

link
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02...

Question to Catholics: I know a pope hasn't resigned in many hundreds of years. But is Benedict allowed to vote in the college of cardinals for his successor?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
No because he is not a cardinal ( no more )


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
He is also over 80 now. forgot that part, which renders my question moot in this case
However, what will his official status after he resigns? Is he going to be a cardinal? A priest? Defrocked? If he is no longer officially a clergyman, could he in theory marry?

Not trying to barrage you specifically with questions, but this has gotten me curious.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Retired priest
My guess is that he would be treated like a retired priest, but we are really in uncharted waters here.  Priests remain priests until they die unless they are defrocked for breaking the rules.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
That would make sense
I guess he could just be referred to as a retired pope. Would he retain his Papal name, or go back to Joseph? Gotta love uncharted waters.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Apparently, go back to Joseph.


[ Parent ]
Democratic primary
I'm curious to see who the dailykos pushes for the Papal Democratic primary. I just think a pro-choice candidate will have a tough time winning.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
EMILY's List will have a hard time
I can't think of any obvious female candidates. Maybe they would have changed the rules for Mother Teresa.

[ Parent ]
Really?
The Guardian said he'd go back to being a Cardinal, but would abstain from the Conclave.

[ Parent ]
He couldn't vote anyway
Cardinals over 80 are barred from voting. (In my mind, the logical next step is a mandatory retirement age for popes at 80.)

[ Parent ]
also
given how rare it is to resign, I dought he would want to.

(There's ways to make known who he prefers without going there)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Time for a liveblog
Most of the mods are Catholics anyhow.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Live blogging Conclave
You know you're a political junkie when...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Yes
The election of a Pope is the election of a head of state with an electoral college, horsetrading, and all kinds of fund stuff.

If this was the good old days, I mean the Middle Ages, Berlusconi would drop his run for Premier and announce his candidacy.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Really?
Wow, Didn't realize that. Everyone but me and RR I guess, or am I forgetting somebody?

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Is that a reference to Nostradamus?
because I think he predicted that the next pope would be the last and that he would be aligned with the Anti-Christ.  

Just saying . . .  


[ Parent ]
Not Nostradamus but Malachia O'Morgair ( archibishop of Armagh ) 1094-1148


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Yep, the other 4 of us are Catholic
I didn't know if you were. RRH was actually the first thing I thought of when I heard the news this morning--it would be kind of fun to cover the conclave, since it's one of the oldest electoral processes in the world!

[ Parent ]
Right Reformer
He is Jewish.

I think we should seriously cover this affair.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Are you trying to keep the religious demographic of the Mods
the same as the US Supreme Court on purpose to lend credibility to your judgements? ;-)

[ Parent ]
Papist Cabal
The site really is nothing more than a Papist cabal with some fellow travelers.

It would be interesting to survey the religious affliation of this site.  I don't think we have any Mormons or Muslims.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
That might make for an interesting poll question on this weekend's thread


[ Parent ]
I was Catholic until age 10
yadda yadda yadda, I don't even celebrate Christmas now.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Yeah and you have a user on the ground too! ( myself! ) LOL


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
If we're going to politicize this...
How about Pope Daniel I? :p

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
I wonder
2 things...

1. Was Benedict pre-determined to step down after x time, basically he was chosen to get the house in order and hand it off to someone younger?

2. Is this Benedict wanting to play a hand in choosing the next Pope to ensure it continues the Conservative wings power over the Papacy?  Liberals came somewhat close last time, and Benedict may want to try and make sure they do not take over this time either.

Thoughts?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Both good questions
This is just so unprecedented that there's no way to tell exactly what the game is. The skeptic in me wonders if there's a scandal at the root of all of this.

I don't think Benedict leaving voluntarily has much effect on the conclave. The electors are who they are, and because Benedict won't be participating he'll have no more sway over the votes alive than dead (unless there's been some serious horse-trading going on).

I'm a conservative person but I'm fairly liberal as a Catholic so I'm hoping they continue the tradition of "following a fat pope with a thin pope" and that we get someone who is, at a minimum, John Paul II (or ideally John XXIII).


[ Parent ]
For those of us who are not Catholic
Could you please expound on what the difference between Catholic "conservatism" and "liberalism" is?

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
It's basically all social (nt)


Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's a few things
When I say I'm liberal I mostly mean that I think there should be reforms to the priesthood (i.e. ordaining women, relaxing celibacy, etc.)

Other areas where Catholic liberals and conservatives disagree: birth control, gay marriage, abortion (although most Catholic liberals are at least personally pro-life), and some more technical issues relating to the Mass and Eucharist.


[ Parent ]
Perhaps I was oversimplistic
I was simply saying that since the "social" aspect is what gets the most press and would be most easily understood. Since there is apparently a large Catholic contingent here though, perhaps I should state that I agree with you on the priesthood reforms, and as a Catholic living in a sea of Baptists, would like the "meatless Fridays in Lent" requirement to be dropped once and for all.

Also, to address other points, maybe this is just the congregation I belong to, but Catholics where I live tend to be to the right of Baptists on many issues even though many of them, myself included, are "liberal" Catholics.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
Not only social issues...
Conservative Catholics like me are usually more open to small business and free market...progressive Catholics sometimes are close to marxism...socialism and communism...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
True, even in the US.
I have some catholic friends who are exceedingly leftist on economic issues (basically Marxist) and still strongly pro-life.  It makes it real hard to find anyone worth voting for...

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Lots of very liberal Catholics
I am Catholic (Irish dad Italian Mom) and I have been never understood how devout Catholics can vote for very liberal politicians.  I am personally pretty moderate (almost leaning left) on social issues but I don't understand how one can prioritize the issue of life and reconcile that with a vote for say...Obama.  I know that is getting into a policy discussion but I really don't understand it.  

If Father Drinan were serving today he would probably be at the same point on the continuum as Grayson, Waters, Markey, Liz Warren, etc.

35, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
Most Catholic State in US
Trivia Question Time
Most Catholic state in Union?

Rhode Island so a lot liberal Catholics


[ Parent ]
I remember in 05
That there was such speculation about what kind of pope Ratzinger would become based on the name he chose. I found it interesting that they speculated that if he took the name Pius, he would be a very conservative pope! whereas if he took the name John, he would be a more liberal pope. Benedict, IIRC was considered a reformer's papal name.

What are the odds that if someone from the left half of the college of cardinals is selected, he chooses to be John Paul III? I think that would likely send a clear message about the way he intends to handle the church. Do you agree?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
I truly feel
Benedict is in much worse health than anyone imagines and he doesn't feel he has much time left, so, he wanted to get a new pope in now, when he can have some influence over who it is. Personally, with the way the Church is going right now, I think we need to look at personality over anything. We need a new John Paul II who can become a beloved figure among everyone, even enemies of the Church. I know he's a longshot, but Dolan is someone who can do this, but out of those with a decent shot of becoming the next pope, Luis Antonio Tagle is someone who is young enough and charismatic enough to be the leader the Church needs right now. We don't need another placeholder pope like Benedict was.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Dolan
I thought he was in the Benedict camp of hard line traditionalists? I have never heard him speak, but John Paul II is widely considered a reformer of the church, and I don't think that a strong ally of Benedict's would be able to have the same sort of image.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Dolan is a good candidate in my book
He is fairly conservative and young...and I like to have a Pope from USA...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
He is
I was speaking more from a perspective of personality

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
It seemed Benedict wouldn't be around that long from the start
So I'm kind of skeptical of the scandal explanation.

It'll be interesting to see if the Italians push for one of their own (it's been a while for them), or if the Papacy will go outside Europe. But I'm with you for a fat pope.


Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Yes and No
Benedict will have no formal say in the conclave, that said....

This is basically his set of Cardinals. He appointed an unprecedented number of new Cardinals during his tenure, and before that he wielded enormous influence in purging liberals as the head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. This is his set of people.

All of their inclinations will be conservative, and the only way they would pick a liberal is if they decided the Church absolutely needed substantial reform in that direction. Such a conclusion among Papal conservatives is far from impossible, and would be in line with past precedent where ex-Conservatives tended to become liberals and ex-Liberals conservatives. But they would be less likely to make a radical departure if Benidict was alive to witness any such "betrayal".

That said I doubt there is that much pressure to make concessions in Europe or America on Gay Rights or Abortion. There is little to be gained, and it would alliance Africa and any rapprochement with Moscow. That said, concessions on something like condoms, and a more liberal approach to traditional customs in Africa might be on the agenda.

I just hope whoever it is has the Inquisition condemn Lena Dunham.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga
A friend of mine is currently in a seminary gi be a Catholic priest. He texted me bring up the name of the most likely Latin American to be considered. Apparently he is from the more moderate wing of the cardinals, but at only 70 years of age, he would not be a transitional pope.

I know nothing about this guy. Do you or does anyone else have any input on this guy?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Lena Dunham
I think inquisiting Lena Dunham would be a pan-faith affair with pretty much everyone needing representatives.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen
Wow, I know Moshe posted this on the weekend thread but:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013...

I just read a comment on nj.com that sums it up pretty well:  "Menendez was complaining to Obama that we weren't doing enough to combat drug trafficking. DHS said, "Okay, we'll donate some equipment to help." Menendez: "NO NO NO, you have to buy it from my friend is what I meant...If not, I don't care how much blow gets trafficked, that's just for the press to make it look like I care!!!"  


Daylin Leach
Oh lord, Daylin Leach has to be my least favorite Southeastern Pennsylvania Democrat. He's absolutely obnoxious (AND he lives in the Upper Merion Township slice of PA-07 with a Wayne mailing address that's south of the Schuylkill Expressway and north of the Lower Merion border).

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


PA-13 primary
I suspect a Philly candidate would win the Democratic primary in the new seat.  You could easily end up with three Philly hacks who will demand seats drawn to their desires in 2021.  The PA map might be the gift that keeps on giving.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Mike Stack
I'd bet on him unless McCord enters.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Agree
Stack would be the Democrats worst nightmare.  He would go along with a Republican plan and has a pretty tight grip over the northeast Philly state reps.  Brady, Fattah, and Stack could whip up more than enough support to counter a Democratic gerrymander.  Split Philly in 1/3 pieces and give 1/3 to Brady plus half of Delco, 1/3 to Fattah plus the minority areas of Montco, and 1/3 to Stack plus some white areas of Montco and Bensalem and Bristol.  The Republicans get the rest.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Would Republicans be willing to split Bucks County, though?


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Depends
If it was part of a shotgun compromise it might happen.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Yes
If I recall correctly, the Republicans wanted to split Bucks this last time around. Fitzpatrick fought them hard on it, and assured them he would hold the seat if they kept it whole. And he did.

34, Libertarian leaning D.
Born & raised in PA-17/today's PA-4.
Now living in PA-7.


[ Parent ]
Leach
2014 is a free shot for him, as he was just elected to a 4 year, State Senate term in 2012.

If he is serious about running for this seat, he needs to move to a different section of Upper Merion Township. One that is in PA-13 and one that has a King of Prussia mailing address.

That being said, I've been told to expect a major Dem announcement in Upper Merion later today.

My assumption is that Leach will announce for Congress, State Rep Tim Briggs will announce for State Senate, and one of the Township Supervisors will announce for State Rep.

34, Libertarian leaning D.
Born & raised in PA-17/today's PA-4.
Now living in PA-7.


[ Parent ]
Daylin Leach
Totally concur!

South Philly Gay Republican

[ Parent ]
Headline of the day
"Former state Sen. Huntley bought clothes for her dog in taxpayer-funded shopping sprees" http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

R, WV-1

The sad thing is, I'm not surprised.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
GA-Sen; No decision until May for Price
@kwingfieldajc: @RepTomPrice makes it official in an emailed statement: No announcement about #GASen before May. #gapol

This is horrible as it freezes Handel. He's obviously not going to run, he might as well free up Handel.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


It doesn't mean she couldn't announce early
Even if Price's decision isn't announced to the general public until May, if he communicates to her that he's staying out she can start getting a campaign in place early.

Handel for her part has been very quiet lately. If she's still interested she should be floating her name for often so that she doesn't lose out on media buzz to Broun, Kingston, Gingrey, and Price.


[ Parent ]
On twitter people have been asking her to run
And she keeps replying ... Thanks for the encouragement stay tunded! I think she's in and just making sure the support is there statewide.

21, Conservative Republican MA-04 College MA-01

Twitter - https://twitter.com/JohnRTapley


[ Parent ]
That's encouraging
Ideally she and Kingston get to fight it out in a runoff. I'd be happy with either.

[ Parent ]
Handel
Time for her to just form an Exploratory and raise money...if Price runs for Senate she can then use that money for her House account  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Agreed
That would be smart of her.  Otherwise Broun will get to consolidate Conservative money and support solo.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Bingo!
She could probably raise a lot more money with an exploratory for Senate than she could for House and she can always transfer the money to a House race if one opens up.  

[ Parent ]
Bingo!
She could probably raise a lot more money with an exploratory for Senate than she could for House and she can always transfer the money to a House race if one opens up.  

[ Parent ]
Hmm...
Salem NJ actually tipped slightly to Obama since they were tied:

http://njelections.org/2012-re...


[ Parent ]
How not to raise money
I know we all grieve in our own way but this strikes me as kind of sick:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

Sending out an email to supporters that basically reads "you can read the remarks I delivered at my father's memorial service by clicking this link and donating up to $2,750 to my campaign" is just soooooo wrong.  


Catholics by country
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

There's never been a non-European Pope. While many Europeans are identified as Catholic, Europe is largely secular now. These countries aren't growing, so they're going to be a lower percentage of the world's Catholics.

The four countries with the most Catholics are Brazil, Mexico, Philippines, and the U.S., Africa is growing. I wouldn't have thought that Nigeria and Congo would be so Catholic.

Will the next Pope be non-European?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Latin America makes the most sense
It has been the most densely Catholic region in the world for quite some time now. But more important than the Pope's nationality is that he can connect with the third-world Catholics who make up the majority of the Church. JPII excelled at that.

[ Parent ]
I read some info about Cardinal Dolan and actually i like him
I think could be a good compromise...he is a conservative ( but not too much )...he is young and he is from a non-european nation...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Catholics in Italy
Here in Italy about 95% of population is baptized Catholic...but only 35% go to Church at least one time a week...about 50% of population go to Church at least one time a month...

I think at least 70% of italian people consider themselves somewhat close to Catholic Church...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative


[ Parent ]
That's not technically true.
There have been a couple of North African popes in the late Roman Empire time.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
I suspect most people are thinking in terms of Sub-Sahara Africa.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
If you want to get technical
Peter was from Palestine and thus wasn't European either. But all ancient-era popes were from the Roman world, and all popes since have been European.

[ Parent ]
You miss the point
And there were Popes from Syria if you go back to the 700s. They were all part of the Roman Empire and represented the same group of people. This was before the Catholic church spread all over the world. A Pope from Nigeria, Mexico, or Brazil would be very different.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Ladbrokes odds
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en...

The top three cardinals on their list aren't European and there are many other non-Europeans on the list. Cardinal Timothy Dolan is down the list at 33-1.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
2012 National Popular Vote Tracker
Via @Redistrict

https://docs.google.com/spread...

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


They found more votes?
It looks like Obama added 10K to the wiki totals, what state found some?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Nevermind
Just checked Wassermans twitter feed.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Colorado and New York
I alerted Wasserman to some updated Colorado and New York vote totals last week. Apparently some states can put out official results and then still count. New York is largely from Suffolk County, but also Greene, Bronx, Queens, and Richmond.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Sweet
Good finds sir!

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Wow! Virginia is almost exactly EVEN in 2012
It is D+0.00666.  

[ Parent ]
So in other words
If Romney and Obama had gotten exactly equal votes, the only states that would have flipped would be Ohio and Florida?

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Assuming uniform swing
Which can't be assumed.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Cuomo adrift?
Good op-ed by Fred Dicker about Gov Cuomo losing his mojo and desire for reform:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...
I know there has been a lot of misinformation about Cuomo being a DINO. I think what ever small attempts he made to have some semblance of fiscal sanity in NY might be over with as he drifts towards re-election and a possible 2016 run. Look for status quo and left wing dogbones for the rest of the Cuomo term.

Tarr
Do we have any word from him? He said he'd make a decision by today.

R, WV-1

Just spoke with a pal who's in Tarr's office today
He will make a final decision today but he's been leaning against it since Winslow starting making moves. That's about all I can say.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Gomez files paperwork to run
https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/st...

Good luck with that.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Wont having 2 GOP candidates make it harder for either of them to get on the ballot?
having to petition efforts could split what little manpower the MA GOP has and could prevent either of them from making the ballot.

[ Parent ]
I think the odds of him getting on the ballot are slim
Winslow should get it done however

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
he was gathering sigs this weekend
I really hope he doesn't get them.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
WV-Sen: Capito up 18 over Rahall in GOP poll
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

rahall not running
I think SOS will be nominee.

[ Parent ]
NYC-Mayor: Carolyn Maloney compares Quinn to FDR
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

PA-13
So, PA-13's slice of Philly wet 65.9% for Obama in 2008 and is made up of ~358,000 people. PA-13's slice of MontCo went 65.0% for Obama in 2008 and is made up of ~351,000 people.

Can you say "tug of war between MontCo and Philly Dems?" It'd be a whole lot of fun to see one MontCo State Senator (Daylin Leach) and one Philadelphia State Senator (Mike Stack) fight like animals in a super territorial battle. The MontCo section is 72.5% white and the Philly section is 52.3% white, and that could make a difference in a low turnout, midterm year primary, but I'm sure Brady's machine would help Stack out. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that if Allyson Schwartz runs for governor, lower MontCo may turn out quite well to support her in her primary, especially if it's competitive.  

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


PA-13's voter registration
I'm going to try to dig up the numbers on which side has more actual registered Democrats.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Guess
I am going to guess 2/3 of the registered Republicans in the district are in PA-13.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
You mean in MontCo?
While demographics and socioeconomic indicators would seem to tilt the primary to MontCo, registration I'm sure tilts the advantage back towards Philly. I think it would be an all out brawl between the MontCo and Philly Dems.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Yes
This would be beautiful.  One element we are not considering is how the unions would react.  The private sector unions would go for Stack along with the police and fire.  Everyone else would be fighting among Alan Grayston of the North, Leach, and the Abington candidate.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Grayson=Leach
I don't remember if I compared Leach to Grayson on here--I'm on my Android now--but I also think of Daylin Leach as Pennsylvania's Alan Grayson.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Leach
The problem for Leach is that he represents a small part of PA-13 while Stack represents a larger portion.  It is even more likely we would see a three way between Stack, Leach, and someone from the Abington area.  Under that scenario, Stack wins the primary.  The dreams of electing a bold progessive also fade.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Marcel Groen / Abington
The Dem County Chairman (Marcel Groen) has a strong favoritism towards candidates from the Abington area. I would assume he has someone in mind that he would want to run in this primary.

Schwartz will press hard for a female replacement. She did the exact same thing when she vacated her State Senate seat. LeAnna Washington now holds it.

34, Libertarian leaning D.
Born & raised in PA-17/today's PA-4.
Now living in PA-7.


[ Parent ]
Groen
Groen is a Rendell lacky and we will know who he supports when Rendell cannot resist opening his mouth.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PA-13: The woman factor
Schwartz will probably do everything in her power to ensure that a woman succeeds her in PA-13. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky? (For the record, that MMM suggestion was a joke).

I'm sure some boldly progressive woman from Abington would run.

State Rep Madeline Dean could be that candidate. http://www.legis.state.pa.us/c...

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Natural assumption
My natural assumption is that they would want Josh Shapiro to run. But he's not a woman. So who knows.

Northeast Philly will want it's seat back. Stack will probably run in the primary.

34, Libertarian leaning D.
Born & raised in PA-17/today's PA-4.
Now living in PA-7.


[ Parent ]
Leach, Stack, Abington, Upper Dublin, and PA-13
Stack will probably be the only Philly Dem who will run for PA-13. I'm sure Brady and his machine will do everything in their power to make sure of that.

If it's Stack v. one established MontCo Dem (Shapiro, Dean, etc.), I have to think that that would be a marquee race that the MontCo Dem would probably have the slightest of edges in thanks to demography, Schwartz being in the gubernatorial primary, and the tendency for suburban voters to show up in better numbers in a primary election.

That being said, Leach could easily serve as the spoiler. If he runs, and this will really be his only opportunity ever to move up into federal office (and he won't be risking his State Senate seat), I don't think he necessarily cares if another MontCo Dem is running.

On the flip side, why would some Abington or Upper Dublin Township liberal give a damn if some State Senator who only represents all or parts of Conshohocken, Upper Merion Norristown and East/West Norriton Townships is in the race? The heart of this district is arguably Abington, in terms of political influence and socioeconomics, so I can't imagine a candidate from the Abington/Upper Dublin area not running (unless the MontCo machine gets behind the loathsome and aptly named Leach, for some reason).

If it's Leach v. Abington/Upper Dublin D v. Stack, Stack probably wins hands down. Leach is self absorbed enough to stay in such a race.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Agreed Agreed
You nailed it 100% on the head.

34, Libertarian leaning D.
Born & raised in PA-17/today's PA-4.
Now living in PA-7.


[ Parent ]
Exactly
As the Democrats have largely focused on consolidating their gains in this area we have not seen the schism fully manifest itself within their ranks.

The big bucks in this seat come from the Abington area which is highly under the influence of Rendell.  Leach is not a Rendell fan and Rendell is not a Leach fan.  You have to suspect Rendell and his cronies will do anything to torpedo Leach including getting a bold progressive woman to run.

Also you got to remember there has to be a big pharma whore in this race.  Big pharma is big here and Schwartz has carried their luggage for awhile.  Leach is not their bag boy.  They simply will not tolerate him either.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Ok
If Leach somehow wins the primary (not very likely I understand), could a Repub win this seat?

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
PA-13
No. The seat was D+15 in 2012. We're not winning it under any circumstances. However, Leach's winning a general election and having a safe seat in Congress would be a huge boon to the PA GOP. Leach would be a complete gadfly in DC. He'd be the next Alan Grayson and would be a PR mess for Dems.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
We can use a time machine
That's the only way to win the seat.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
AquarianLeft
He has one. It's how he was always posting seemingly straight from the 1980s.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
^ This
LOL

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Question
Is NE Philly gentrifying?  If so many of those voters in NE Philly may prefer a MontCo candidate over a machine backed Philly candidate.
Is Stack a Bob Casey-like quasi-moderate, or is he just another urban liberal with blue collar roots?

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Opposite
Some of the southern portions of PA-13 are going down hill pretty quickly.  Most of the gentrification is occurring in PA-2.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
^What he said
Much of the Northeast is becoming more and more like Oxford Circle.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Northern Liberties
When I was in high school my father bought abandoned factories in Northern Liberties and turned them into lofts. Twenty-five years later the area gentrified and became chic. People told him he was a visionary. That's a long vision.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes
This district does not go south of the Betsy Ross Bridge, which means it is nowhere near hipster territory.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
The Point Breeze Land Grab
http://philly.curbed.com/archi...

They are trying to keep the hipsters (read: white people) out, to prevent this.

http://hiddencityphila.org/201...

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
roemer jr may run us senate againt landrieu
Not likely
Roemer Jr. is raising money to run for Cassidy's seat in the nearly-certain scenario that Cassidy runs for Senate, but he can't exactly announce that he's running for Cassidy's seat before Cassidy runs for Senate.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Yep
Roemer Jr. talking up a Senate run does two things: (1) Raises his name rec and (2) Gets GOP bigwigs to promise him support for a House bid to help clear the field for Cassidy  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Cassidy
Is there any chance he actually passes on facing Landrieu?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Very slim
The NRSC and state GOP and pretty much every Republican leader involved in the race knows he is the only candidate- other than Jindal- who can clear the field. If he passes, Fleming runs and tried to get into the run-off with the rural vote. Roemer runs and tries to get into the run-off on the suburban vote. Landry runs and tried to get into the run-off on the Cajun and tea-party vote. Cassidy can potentially keep all of them out, no one else can.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Jindal
I seriously doubt the guy can ever become president or even get on a national ticket. He's too dull and resembles the guy from "Leave It To Beaver" and he will have to go up against some serious competition (Rubio/Bush, Christie, possibly Walker, Martinez, etc...). S

Someone close to him should wake him up and let him know that he can be senator for life - and at 42 (well 44 when he wins), he would have a long time to make a lot of impact.

I have no doubt that a Jindal vs. Landrieu race is Leans GOP to start and probably ends up being Likely and then Safe GOP towards the end of the campaign. In fact, I am confident that Landrieu retires and leaves whatever political capital she has for a gubernatorial run in 2015.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Stephen Lynch flip flops on abortion
From our friends at RedMassGroup...

Now since Lynch has entered the Senate race and knowing that being Pro-Life hurts him in the Democratic Primary with woman, Lynch has flip flopped and now says "Abortion should be legal, rare, and safe" and that he will only support Supreme Court Judges who will uphold Roe vs. Wade.

Well Lynch is not the only Democratic Senate Candidate to flip flop as well in the June 25, 2013 special election.  That's right.  Ed Markey is a flip flopper also.  Today.  Ed Markey is Pro-Choice, but when Markey entered Congress, he was for a Constitutional Amendment prohibiting Abortion.

http://www.redmassgroup.com/di...

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


I'm a bit surprised
I figured he'd fudge the issue, but not outright flipflop.  But the stuff on judges probably prevents Winslow from running to the left of Lynch on social issues should the latter win the primary.  
I still think Lynch has too many apostasies with the left-wing base to win this primary.  Voting for the Iraq War and opposition to Obamacare will be still hurt him.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
How can you flip-flop on this issue?
Jonah Goldberg so aptly put it, "Either that's a human life and you believe you're killing a person or it isn't and you believe that abortion is the same as any other operation."

If you believe that's a human life, do you suddenly believe it's okay to kill? I don't get the middle ground on this.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Not to get too much into policy
but there are different gradations on this issue.  
Under this interpretation, those who allow for any exceptions to abortion (whether rape, incest, or even life of the mother) are being inconsistent unless they accept that the fetus is never a life until birth.  The majority of the country has rejected both of these extreme views on abortion.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
It's not policy. It's a position someone takes in an election.
I understand exceptions to abortion and don't believe those that those that accept those are being entirely inconstant. It's certainly possible to make the determination that the fetus doesn't qualify as human life until late in the pregnancy and thus it's okay to terminate it before then.

Lynch isn't talking about exceptions or point of viability. He's talking about previously believing that there was life here and it was wrong to terminate it and now... well... I'm not sure.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Must be easy, Catholic Massachusetts Democrats do it all the time!
Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Ed Markey, Father Drinan and now Steve Lynch...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Not surprised at all
I dont trust any democrat or "progressive" on the abortion issue...I usually prefer prochoice fiscal conservative republicans because they are for example against funding planned parenthood and all that stuff...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen: Booker's finance director bolts after two weeks
http://www.nj.com/news/index.s...

Sounds like the campaign from hell.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


She's a former Menendez staffer
No coincidence here  

[ Parent ]
Good God
NJ Political news has been insanely brutal recently for my side.

Shade of late 09/10 here with the news just getting worse and worse, at least in this one state.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Hey, Tek
Ready for more bad NJ news for your side?

http://www.politickernj.com/63...

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Christie up 42 on Buono in new Q Poll
63-21.

The Star-Ledger, who has been rabidly anti-Christie for a few years, spins it as "no coattails" because the Generic Statehouse ballot is 40-25 Democrat.  But that question is basically a party ID question since few know their State Leg. members right now.


[ Parent ]
in the long run its probably for the best for you guys
NJ Democrats had a bit of lethargy for the last decade.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
NJ Dems
They really need to clear house and a good smashing should do this.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
It's a shame NJ doesn't elect its state officers
This would be a great year to build a bench of statewide candidates.

[ Parent ]
Latham Probably Putting Decision off until Spring
http://whotv.com/2013/02/11/se...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


I have a feeling both Latham and King pass
Latham because of seniority and being the favorite for reelection. And King because he probably knows he would have a small chance to win. Also, neither is a spring chicken, as they will both be in their mid 60s at the end of this cycle.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
If Latham passes
I think King is certainly in.   2014/2016 is his last chance to be elected to the Senate, and a midterm gives King the best chance to win.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox