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CDs moving most left and right

by: Left Coast Libertarian

Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 15:43:05 PM EST


Now that we have PVIs for the 2012 Obama-Romney election, we can see which districts moved toward the GOP and which ones moved toward the Democrats.
Left Coast Libertarian :: CDs moving most left and right
Districts moving left
Listed below are the districts that moved to the left by at least 3 PVI points (e.g. from D+11.9 to D+15.2). The first group contains 39 districts that are majority minority. There is good news for Republicans here. While Obama improving with the minority vote was a contributor towards his overall national vote margin, very few of these districts were in swing states and aren't districts the GOP will challenge in. There are a few notable exceptions, as two Republican held districts, FL-26 and CA-21 are on the list.

CA-17 Asian
NY-6 Asian
FL-20 Black
FL-24 Black
GA-4 Black
GA-13 Black
LA-2 Black
MS-2 Black
NJ-10 Black
NY-8 Black
NY-13 Black
OH-3 Black
TX-30 Black
CA-43 Black/Hispanic
PA-1 Black/Hispanic
TX-9 Black/Hispanic
TX-29 Black/Hispanic
TX-33 Black/Hispanic
CA-19 Hispanic/Asian
AZ-3 Hispanic
AZ-7 Hispanic
CA-21 Hispanic
CA-29 Hispanic
CA-32 Hispanic
CA-34 Hispanic
CA-35 Hispanic
CA-38 Hispanic
CA-40 Hispanic
CA-41 Hispanic
CA-44 Hispanic
CA-46 Hispanic
FL-9 Hispanic
FL-25 Hispanic
FL-26 Hispanic
FL-27 Hispanic
NJ-8 Hispanic
NY-7 Hispanic
NY-15 Hispanic
TX-28 Hispanic

There were 14 districts that weren't majority minority that Obama also improved in. Fortunately, few were competitive, although the GOP does hold AK-AL, LA-1, and NY-11. Of those, however, only NY-11 could flip.

AK-AL
CA-47
CA-51
LA-1
MA-7
MD-2
MD-5
NJ-6
NJ-9
NJ-12
NY-11
NY-14
OH-9
PA-13

Districts moving right
Like the districts moving left, this isn't a varied list. In fact, 27 of the districts were in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Utah, and West Virginia. These were the five biggest improvements for Romney, outside of single district states. For the most part there's not a lot of excitement here, although there are a few swing districts. Democrats currently hold IL-10, IL-12, UT-2, and WV-3.

IL-6
IL-10
IL-12
IL-13
IL-14
IL-15
IL-16
IL-18
IN-2
IN-3
IN-4
IN-5
IN-6
IN-8
IN-9
MO-3
MO-4
MO-6
MO-7
MO-8
UT-1
UT-2
UT-3
UT-4
WV-1
WV-2
WV-3

There were also 18 districts in other states. While the list above contains mostly conservative districts, this list contains districts the GOP might have been concerned about. GA-6 is suburban Atlanta. While GA-7 is a bigger concern, it's nice to see the Democratic vote hasn't spread here.

Several of the remaining districts, MI-1, ND-AL, SD-AL, VA-9, WI-7, and WI-8, swung to the GOP in 2010. In addition, there was concern about MT-AL and PA-6 flipping at some point. Unfortunately, there are no Democratic districts here.

GA-6
KY-1
KY-5
MI-1
MI-2
MI-10
MT-AL
ND-AL
NV-2
PA-5
PA-6
PA-9
SD-AL
VA-9
WI-7
WI-8

Trending
Some districts that made big shifts 2004-2008 did shift again in 2012. There was a strong rightward shift in Massachusetts, Long Island, and Palm Beach County in 2008, but those districts didn't shift strongly again in 2012. There were a few that continued the trend:

KY-5: R+10 in 2004 to R+28 in 2012
WV-3: R+3 in 2004 to R+18 in 2012
WV-1: R+7 in 2004 to R+16 in 2012
VA-9: R+9 in 2004 to R+16 in 2012
MO-8: R+11 in 2004 to R+19 in 2012

If you look at the big shifts between the three elections you'll see that some parts of California are really moving away from the GOP. Some of them would've been competitive in 2004.

CA-46: R+1 in 2004 to D+11 in 2012
FL-9: R+0 in 1004 to D+11 in 2012
CA-41: R+0 in 1004 to D+11 in 2012
CA-21: R+6 in 2004 to D+4 in 2012
CA-51: D+8 in 2004 to D+19 in 2012
CA-35: D+8 in 2004 to D+17 in 2012
CA-29: D+19 in 2004 to D+27 in 2012

One phenomenon in California that was also exhibited nationwide was that Republican districts were more likely to get redder and Democratic districts were more likely to get bluer. While only 6 of 38 California Democratic districts got redder, 7 of 15 Republican districts did.

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I wonder though
how much of this is due to Obama?  He was perhaps the most polarizing candidate/President we have seen in some time, pretty much loved by minorities and liberals, and hated by conservatives.
I suspect that we'll see some reversion in many of these districts, both blue and red, in 2016.  

Christie 2016  

Obama
What's nice about comparing 2008 and 2012 is that Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee in both years. You can't get any closer to holding one factor constant than that.  Of course the difference between Obama and the 2016 nominee will impact the 2016 numbers.

One thing you can do is compare gubernatorial or senate results by district from 2006 to 2010, 2008 to 2012, or 2010 to 2012.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I'd say each election has been getting more polarizing
politics was rather polarizing in the Bush Administration too but what we're now seeing is this effect bleed into the local races too that why we have so fewer Obama Republicans and Romney Democrats.

I think it really depends who the candidates are for 2016.


[ Parent ]
Clinton v. Rubio might be the most interesting
Clinton has lingering popularity in the areas that turned strongly against Obama, while Rubio might be able to bring minorities, especially hispanics, back to the GOP.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Very nice
Thanks.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


I was doing this myself the other night. I may do a more specific post later.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Republican trending
The list of Republican trending districts seems to have a real mix.  The numbers in PA-5 and PA-9 really indicate the collapse of residual Democratic strength in the T while the collapse in PA-6 is far more interesting.  As the most exurban district in PA, it really shows the Democratic gains in exurban areas are reversing as well.

28, Republican, PA-6

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