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Political Roundup for February 19, 2013

by: shamlet

Tue Feb 19, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Welcome back from the Presidents' Day weekend. Oodles and oodles of news to get to...

Senate:

NE-Sen: Gov. Dave Heineman (R) and Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) have both indicated they will explore a run for Johanns's seat. Heinemann sounds somewhat reluctant in his statement, while Fortenberry takes the usual ambiguous middle-ground. Other possibilities on the R side are AG Jon Bruning, Treasurer Don Stenberg, Reps. Adrian Smith and Lee Terry, and businessman Pete Ricketts.

NJ-Sen: Rep. Rush Holt Jr. (D) is considering trying to follow in his father's footsteps by running for the Senate. Holt becomes the second Dem congressman looking at the race, after Rep. Frank Pallone.

More NJ-Sen: Rep. Rob Andrews (D), who lost to Lautenberg in a 2008 primary and then reclaimed his House seat by using his wife as a placeholder, will not run. Andrews is saying he hopes to move up in House leadership. Given his recent, and continuing, ethics issues, staying in Congress and out of Prison may be the more realistic goals.

GA-Sen: Rep. Jack Kingston (R) pseudo-declared his candidacy this weekend, with a non-announcement announcement to the Forsyth County GOP. Expect an official announcement sometime in the next few weeks at most.

KY-Sen: It looks like McConnell might get a primary challenge after all. Connecticut businessman Matt Bevin, who owns the only manufacturer of bells in the US, has been talking with Tea Party groups about a run. It is unclear how Bevin divides his time between CT and KY, or how serious a threat he would be to McConnell. Across the aisle, Ashley Judd (D-TN) is "leaning toward" a bid against McConnell and has set a timetable of early May for her decision.

IA-Sen: Ex-Gov. and current US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (D) will not run, essentially clearing the D field for Rep. Bruce Braley.

MN-Sen: Rep. John Kline, one of Republicans' top two prospects here along with fellow Rep. Erik Paulsen, is not ruling out a run against Franken.

MA-Sen: WBUR looks at the D primary and finds Markey leading Lynch by a score of just 38-31. A good result for Lynch, who was losing to Markey by a huge margin in a recent PPP(D) poll.

LA-Sen: Rep. John Fleming (R) acknowledged he is taking a look at a bid against Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) after blasting her on tax issues.

Governor:

NE-Gov: State Sen. Charlie Janssen (R-Fremont) becomes the third candidate to run for Governor, and is currently the only candidate in the race after LG Sheehy and State Sen. Flood dropped out. In other NE-Gov news, university regent Tim Clare (R) won't run.

ME-Gov: Ex-Gov. John Baldacci (D) reveals that he is attempting to recruit either Rep. Chellie Pingree or Rep. Mike Michaud into the race - even while he considers his own bid. As for his own bid, the key quote from the article is this:

"Baldacci is banking on the idea that LePage's rhetoric and record in office will make him look better by comparison."

Not exactly a great strategy when you're also dealing with a credible third choice in 2010 candidate Eliot Cutler (I). Outgoing SBA Admin Karen Mills is being mentioned as another possible D alternative to Baldacci, but is so far noncomittal.

PA-Gov: Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) is now seen as near-certain to run for Governor. Treasurer Rob McCord (D) is also considering a run.

MO-Gov '16, MO-AG '16: Ex-State House Speaker and US Attorney Catherine Hanaway (R) is already actively exploring a run for either of these seats. Both posts are likely to be open with AG Koster seen as near-certain to run for the Governorship; Hanaway could be a strong candidate in either race.

House:

IL-2: State Sen. Toi Hutchinson (D-Olympia Fields) dropped out of the D primary Sunday, clearing the way for 2010 Treasurer nominee Robin Kelly to glide to Congress over ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson. Kelly is now the overwhelming favorite to win the D primary in this dark blue seat.

MO-8: Missouri Dems nominated Steve Hodges, a state Rep. from East Prairie representing a heavily R seat, as their candidate in the special. Hodges has a dramatically uphill fight in the deep red seat against State Rep. Jason Smith (R-Salem).

NY-11: City Councilman Dominic Recchia (D-Gravesend, Brooklyn) is running against Rep. Michael Grimm. Grimm is vulnerable because of ongoing ethics issues with his fundraising team, but a Brooklyn Democrat may not be the best choice for them to flip this Staten Island based seat.

FL-26: Ex-Dade County Commissioner Joe Martinez (R) will run against Joe Garcia. Martinez lost a bid for County Executive in a non-partisan 2012 race to fellow Republican Carlos Giminez.

SC-1: Mark Sanford's first ad takes the apology tour route. Politico also profiles the two other famous names in the race, Teddy Turner (R), and Elzabeth Colbert-Busch (D). The article on Colbert-Busch is more than a little on the optimistic side about her chances.

GA-11: Ex-Rep. Bob Barr, the 2008 Libertarian presidential nominee, is apparently looking for a congressional comeback after returning to his former Republican allegiance. The seat that would make the most sense is the 11th, which roughly corresponds to Barr's 1990s-era seat and is likely to be open with Rep. Phil Gingrey almost certainly running for Senate. Other less likely possibilities are Paul Broun's 10th and Tom Price's 6th.

NV-2: Dems are trying to recruit Washoe Sheriff Mike Haley to make a bid against Rep. Mark Amodei (R). Given Amodei's strong performance in his last two elections, it's hard to see him losing in 2014.

AL-6, NY-13: The Campaign for Primary Accountability is back, and they're targeting two incumbents they went after in 2012 - Alabama Republican Spencer Bachus and NY Dem Charlie Rangel. Seeing as one of the CPA's biggest issues was its lack of focus last cycle, this is a positive step for them. That said, I'm not sure these two are the wisest targets - Rangel may step down before 2014 to keep State Sen. Adriano Espaillat (D) out of his seat, and Bachus has a huge warchest (and ample time to use his finance connections to raise more).

WATN: Ex-IL-2 Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. was charged with stealing $750K of campaign contributions for his personal use. He is likely to recieve approximately 4 years in prison; his wife, ex-Chicago Ald. Sandi Jackson, is likely headed to the Big House as well as his co-conspirator.

State & Local:

DC-AG: DC is likely to elect its AG for the first time in 2014. Mayor Vincent Gray (D) introduced the bill last week, but as the idea has been discussed for a while, expect it to sail through easily. Though council seats are already elected citywide, the AG will be the only citywide elected executive besides the mayor.

MD-AA-CE: 16 people have applied for selection by the county council as AA County executive, to replace John Leopold (R), who was recently convicted of corruption charges. The big names are current acting CE John Hammond, State Del. and 2014 CE race front-runner Steve Schuh, ex-CE John Gary, and ex-First Lady Kendel Ehrlich. All are Republicans; the selection will occur Thursday.

shamlet :: Political Roundup for February 19, 2013
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PA-Gov...
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

I am scratching my head to figure out what Schwartz has done to piss off this portion of the Philly business community and Rendell as well.  I really don't see a way for her to win the Democratic primary if she does not even have strong support in her backyard.

The only thing I can think of is they perceive her as a social issues activist based on her Planned Parenthood time and these people more or less despise all social activists.

28, Republican, PA-6


Schwartz
Ryan, it's been mentioned on this website several times that it appears Schwartz does not have the support of Rendell, and of others in the city of Philadelphia. The news stories I've seen have only mentioned David L Cohen, specifically, that he is endorsing an incumbent Governor since no incumbent Governor has lost an election in PA in the last 40 years. I have seen him make no mention of any specific Democratic candidate, including Schwartz.

Can you give me some insight where this lack of support of Schwartz is coming from? Or any other information why it would appear Philadelphia would not support/encourage Schwartz to run? Thanks man.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Answer
A source close to Rendell said the Guv would kick into gear for Wolf or another candidate or two.

"If Tom Wolf or another candidate he likes gets in, he will turn on the Philadelphia spigot. He won't turn on the Philadelphia spigot for Rob or Allyson," said the source.

Former Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Erie) and state Sen. Mike Stack (D-Phila) were also working the room on Friday.

http://www.politicspa.com/upda...

This is the kiss of death.

Sestak is also making rumblings from what I have seen on twitter.  If Sestak runs, Schwartz is DOA.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Barr
Barr has a decent shot in any open seat in Georgia near his home base; many Republicans there won't hold it against him for running as a Libertarian; in fact on size of government issues, Georgia outside Atlanta leans in that direction.  

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

LA Mayor: Survey USA Poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Unsurprisingly, Eric Garcetti and Wendy Gruel look likely to go to the run-off.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


AR-Sen/AR-3/AR-LG; Darr: all options on the table
http://m.fox16.com/display/574...

I'm guessing he wants a primary-free challenge. Meaning it will be a senate run if Womack and Cotton pass. A congressional run if Womack runs for the senate. Or reelection if only Cotton runs for the senate.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


AR-04
He explored a run in 2012. He could carpet bag there  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
This has the potential to be a landmark SCOTUS ruling
http://www.ajc.com/news/ap/cri...

SCOTUS will hear GOP campaign donation limits appeal.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Interesting
I support the lift of all limits as it would bring the money out of the dark.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
A big part at least


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Yup
Just lift the restrictions and let people donate whatever they want to candidates. That eliminates SuperPACs and shadow warfare. If Sheldon Adelson wants to donate $10M to someone, that's fine by me so long as it's properly disclosed.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I always felt the best solution to this was to allow unlimited donations to campaigns but reguire instant disclosure and apply a gift tax on contributions over $14,000. That would bring the money out of the dark and raise cash that could pay for an improved system of administering elections.

[ Parent ]
That would be questionable
Taxing contributions would be like taxing political speech. I doubt any conservatives would go for that, and while not a lawyer, I'd be skeptical of its constitutionality.

[ Parent ]
So its constitutional to ban it but not allow it and tax it?
If you can ban contributions over a certain amount I can't see why you could allow them and charge a transfer tax on the payments.

[ Parent ]
MA-Gov
Brown "thinking about" run, denies drunk-tweeting allegations. http://bostonglobe.com/metro/2...

R - MD-7

I might ad
I give him 75-80% odds of running right now.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
USA Today partnering with Pew
They dropped Gallup a while ago.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


CO Gun Legislation
If this legislation passes will it not make Colorado ground zero in gun battle?  Is Colorado too blue now?

Blame McInnis


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
how much will this impact
The Gov Race? US Senate Race? Legislation Races?


[ Parent ]
Legislature is probably the ground zero
I think Hickenlooper has too much built-up popularity that this will make him lose, though it could up the caliber of challenger he receives substantially. Udall will only be impacted as collateral damage if it turns into a major pro-gun revolt.

The big issue is if any Dems from outside of metro Denver-Boulder vote for it.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I always viewed CO
as pro gun state like a lot rocky mountains. I guess I am asking has the cities of Denver, Boulder, and Aspin change dynamics of the state?  Has influx of Hispanics made it less so too?  I get you can't sterotype every voter...

[ Parent ]
Perhaps not as blue in an off-year election?
Besides, Democrats have to deal with Akin(s) of their own in Colorado.

http://hotair.com/archives/201...


[ Parent ]
Rape
When Democrats defend criminals it is always time to start demanding higher manatory minimums for various crimes, more police, and the death penalty for rapists.  

The irony of this individual is striking.  Minority women are more likely to get raped and he is undermining the threat.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
4th Amendment
I am far from the strongest civil libertarian out there, but I am kind of perplexed to see Democrats essentially trample on the Fourth Amendment in such a blatantly obvious way.  I am curious what our Democratic friends on here who said Bush was evil for restricting rights to terrorists think of this one.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Link doesn't work for me
What did he say?

I also doubt any Democrats on here outside of maybeeee Setsuna who seems to be more liberal than oggoldy, grady, jncca, myself etc. called Bush evil for anything.  Of course I may have missed something.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
it's a concealed carry ban on college campuses.
"It's why we have call boxes, it's why we have safe zones, it's why we have the whistles. Because you just don't know who you're gonna be shooting at. And you don't know if you feel like you're gonna be raped, or if you feel like someone's been following you around or if you feel like you're in trouble when you may actually not be, that you pop out that gun and you pop ... pop around at somebody."

Elsewhere, Washington Democrats 'accidentally' wrote legislation empowering police to enter the homes of assault weapon owners and inspect their guns for storage compliance.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Exactly
"Washington Democrats 'accidentally' wrote legislation empowering police to enter the homes of assault weapon owners and inspect their guns for storage compliance."

Again this is what you get when you try to rush legislation in a moment of hysteria.

Clearly they could care less about the 4th Amendment.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Was 2012 in CO similar to 1996 in CA?
Ancestrally Republican but rapid influx of liberal whites and hispanics, wave election in 1994/2010 brings in majorities in state house, only to be swept out in presidential elections 2 years later, continued slide in CA since then leading to 1/3rd status last year.  Hard right state parties make in impossible to pivot in any direction?

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
AZ-9; Vernon Parker going for a rematch against Sinema
Politics1.com‏@Politics1com

AZ CD-9: Ex-Paradise Valley Mayor & '12 nominee Vernon Parker (R) files FEC paperwork to seek 2014 rematch vs Cong Kyrsten Sinema (D).

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


That's surprising
Since I heard from folks in AZ that he had serious "fire in the belly" issues as the campaign dragged on in October of 2012 against Sinema. Maybe his polling showed him losing because of the libertarian candidate, and now he thinks he'll have a better shot in 2014. This is a very winnable seat for us.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
We need a white hispanic in this seat as R candididate
What about Speluveda?

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
I like him
He's not as rough edged as Parker, plus the ethnicity and military background will make for a nice contrast against Sinema. I would like to see Parker in one of the other safe GOP seats, but that likely won't happen anytime soon.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
SC-01
After watching some of the candidates' forum, I like Bostic, Limehouse, Kuhn, and Turner. Sanford got his Southern Orator on. It was impressive. Blandford, the Paulite, was predictably annoying.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Teddy Turner
I'm shocked that Ted's son is a Republican.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Turner did some film work in the Soviet Union back in 80s.
The intro video on his site asserts that after seeing communism (the most extreme form of leftism) at work, he decided that he was a conservative. He's also an economics teacher, and I'm guessing that free market economics, which allowed his father to make so much money, is very important to him.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Children
Children do not always follow in the footsteps on their parents. Ronald Reagan's son is a Democrat, for instance.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
because
His parents were so far to the left, that the only way to rebel was to become a Republican.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Blandford a Paulite?

/facepalm.

Yes, let's run a libertarian guy against Mark Sanford.



libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
It was actually the first thing that he said.
He introduced himself as an unabashed follower of Ron Paul and his 'Restore America Agenda,' or something like that. He was first to speak, and I almost headdesked. I'm not a big fan of Paulites, but you obviously have other reasons for not liking him. You don't want to split the libertarian faction.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Christmas in February
Mass SOS has finally released precinct results for 2012. They also made previous elections (since 1979) available in one location. I had previously acquired the election books for every other election since 1952, but had to manually input the data into a useable form. They've done all the hard work for me now...
http://ma.electionstats.com/

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Damn it, Massachusetts
I'm going to waste so many hours tonight examining the MA-06 results, precinct by precinct and the Weld results by town!

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Brown-Warren
The Brown-Warren numbers are ones I'd like to see.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Brown-Warren numbers
1: Warren 58-42
2: Warren 53-46
3: Brown 51-49
4. Brown 53-47
5: Warren 57-43
6: Brown 51-49
7: Warren 78-22
8: Warren 51-49
9: Brown 54-46

Brown beat Romney by most in MA-4 and MA-9 and least in MA-6, 7, and 2. I thought that even if Brown lost he'd win the state outside of MA-7. He actually lost it 51.6%-48.3%.

Some people have expressed that Richard Tisei disappointed in his performance, but Brown did better in MA-3, MA-4, and MA-9 than he did in MA-6.

If Stephen Lynch wins the senate special, the GOP should go definitely try to win MA-8 in a special election.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
LCL
Warren won MA-08. Are you confusing the fact that Lynch used to represent MA-09?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
I know
But Warren won it by 2 points. I'm not saying it'd be an easy pick-up or the best Massachusetts opportunity. But it'd be an open seat special. If it is, they should really go for it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Brown for MA-09
Would be an interesting one.  Had he lost the special to Coakley, I think he would have looked for a winnable CD.  He'd have to stake claim to a place on the Cape and say it was always his second home.  I realize I'm not being entirely realistic, but it would be interesting...

[ Parent ]
State Rep. Shauna O'Connell
might be a good candidate for that. It would be a super long-shot but she has the right profile.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Brown v. Romney
Brown beat Romney by 3.0%-14.5% two party in Massachusetts cities and towns. His biggest margin was Middlefield, which is tiny. His second biggest was Wrentham. Not exactly a shock. Here are the places Brown's difference was at least 10% (only towns with 5,000+ votes):

Wrentham
Franklin
Gloucester
N. Attleborough
Foxborough
Wakefield
Medway
Abington
Amesbury
Leicester
Ashland
Mansfield
Danvers
Whitman
Norfolk
Rockland
Walpole
Auburn
Hudson
Chicopee
Dracut
Grafton
Bellingham
Ludlow
Marlborough
Bridgewater
Holliston
Spencer

These are 4-6%
Cambridge
Northampton
Lawrence
Brookline
Seekonk
Belmont
Rehoboth
Lexington
Arlington
Somerville



R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
You guys are so high on Weld
But his coalition could never been re-assembled again. You have to win Taunton now-a-days, not Lexington.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Not quite
I've got a more productive use for that data (along with other data).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Merrimackman
I actually have an interesting diary idea that I'd like to consult you on, if possible. It has to do, somewhat, with the Merrimack Valley. Could you email me at the email address on my profile, if possible?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Massachusetts
RRH, get ready for a great big "Mapping Massachusetts" project where I map the interesting races since the 1980s and release my maps in diary form over Spring Break. :)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Wow
Can't wait to look at that. Weld-Silber 1990 may be the most unique election of my lifetime.

[ Parent ]
Strike that
The most unique election of our era. I missed it by a few weeks.

[ Parent ]
Found an Error
In Easton Precinct 1, claiming Stein won the precinct with 633 votes to Romney's 487. Obama coming in third with 15.

The bad part is, the error is needed to match the certified results by the state... Way to go SOS Galvin.

If you go to the town of Easton's website, it had Romney winning the precinct 633-487. Stein only getting 4, and Johnson getting that 15.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Looks like Weld won Boston by 18 points in 1994
Wow. And he lost Cambridge by a mere 3 percent.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Israeli update
Netanyahu is looking to form a coalition and has quite the headache. The magic number is 61 (since the Knesset has 120 members) though that's misleading for two reasons. The first is that every PM wants a bigger majority that won't be affected by the departure of a MK or two (or five), so the goal is really not 61, more like 65 and more. The second is that a government could be a minority government with less than 60 members (usually in the fifties though theoretically could be less) as long as it has outside support, meaning there is no majority for its dismissal.

Netanyahu wants as big a coalition as he could get. His (and Lieberman's) party has 31 seats. His problem is that the right wing and religious JH has formed some kind of pact with Lapid's Yesh Atid, a secular centrist party. Together they have 31 seats as well and agreed to enter the coalition together which is problematic since Lapid doesn't want the ultra orthodox parties (18 seats) in the government whilst Netanyahu does.

Today the latest news are that Livny's Ha'Tnua party has agreed to enter the coalition, Livny will be minister of Justice and responsible for the negotiation with the PLO and the party would also get the ministry of environment protection. That solves a little part of the puzzle as Ha'Tnua has only 6 seats. This whole thing would end in up to 25 days as a government must be formed in up to 42 days and more than 2 weeks have passed by now.


Thank you for the Israeli update
Is this anything like you expected leading up to the election? And what is the most likely outcome now?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Livny and Netanyahu hated each other
almost as much as Barak and Netanyahu had. This is Israeli politics for you, enemies and friends change very quickly. When the elections started people attacked Yechimovich for her good relations with Netanyahu and feared she would enter his coalition, a thing Livny refused to do for 3 years as the chairwoman of Kadima. The fear was so great that Amir Peretz, a former Labour leader, an MK who is placed 3rd on Labour's list has abandoned Labour and joined Livny because of Yechimovich refusal to commit her party to the opposition. By the time the elections came Yechimovich has already announced Labour will not join the government (probably lost votes because of it) whilst Livny stayed ambiguous. The truth is no one knows, including the political players, how this would end

[ Parent ]
Livni wanted to join
She was humbled by the last primary loss and following general election crash.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Well I can't think of any other reason she would.


[ Parent ]
BB
Smartly appointed her to the worthless post of negotiator which suits her ego that only looks at the foreign world. He did bind her to his office and put Molcho on her staff.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Should've voted Degel...
She's also minister of Justice which is one of the biggest ministries after the big 3 and as an "almost lawyer" I have a personal interest who would serve in this position as this could affect my chequebook and other fields of interest.

[ Parent ]
My opinion from the day after the election stands
Safest for BB is right and Livni with Kadima. Though something went to Bennett's head recently. Maybe he is getting back at Sarah.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Disagree
safest is a secular coalition. He can can use Lapid as an excuse to take away all the special favors (like exclusion for military service & taking away their monoply on marriage) & pork the Ultra-Orthodox carved out for themselves. This is the 1st real chance of forming a govt without the Ultra-Orthodox Parties extracting their pound of flesh. Bibi should use this as an opportunity to push for real reforms in Israel. Meanwhile Bibi can keep the Ultra-Orthodox Parties in his back pocket who would be dying to get back into govt and undo any of the changes Lapid would be pushing.  

[ Parent ]
You are referring
To what is good for your ideology. Bibi doesn't agree with you and Lapid and Netanyahu are political enemies. There is no way BB can allow such a strong opposition within the coalition.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
And you are referring to what's good for your ideology
While Bibi & Lapid are political enemies they both agree about reigning in the power and the special favors the ultra-orthodox parties are able to extract from the Israeli govt. On domestic policy Lapid & Bibi share a lot of common ground. Can't see how Netanyahu, who likens himself the Margret Thatcher of Israeli politics, wanting to continue the welfare state for the Haredim. Netanyahu can form a govt with political enemies like Lapid and accomplish policy goals he wants while keeping them in line and in the govt with the threat of dumping them in favor of bring the ultra orthodox parties back into govt. To me that seems like the most logical option.

[ Parent ]
What Bibi wants: 3 options
1)His most desired coalition would be a grand one with as most members as possible so no one party could oust him. He has declared as much and acted as such in the last Knesset. This coalition would be consisted of his party (31), the ultra orthodox (18) and Lapid (19), Kadima (2) and Livny (6), also JH (12) even though he can't stand Bennett and perhaps even Labour (15) though it's doubtful they would enter under such circumstances. This option in now not very likely because of Lapids unwillingness to compromise, pushing Bibi to choose between himself (and also JH that for some reason follow him wherever he goes) and the very convenient ultra orthodox partners.

2) The other choice which is a very possible one is having Labour enter the government with the ultra orthodox, Livny and possibly Kadima. The numbers without Kadima stand on 70 members though you can never count Labour as a whole since "rebels" will always reappear. Even if we count for 5 Labour rebels we still stand on 65 members which is enough and that's without Kadima 2 members and without JH which would very much like to enter the coalition. It is true that Yechimovich said she won't enter the coalition but she's not the only one calling the shots in Labour and we heard the same from Barak 4 years ago. All Bibi needs to do is convince separately enough Labour MK's to join. It is a known fact that Bibi wants them in and offered quite a bit including Knesset speaker to "Fuad" Ben Eliezer, minister of the treasury to Yechimovich and also minister of welfare. That's just the tip of the ice of what he's willing to give them since it would allow him to form a coalition without Lapid, with ultra orthodox and most importantly hurt Bennett's standing in his own party.

3) The third option which should not be dismissed easily is that of a minority government with Livny and the ultra orthodox (possibly also Kadima), that amounts to 55 MK. It has been done before and successfully so (in Rabin's government). All Bibi needs to do is make sure 6 other members won't vote for their own resignation in the form of new elections which could occur if the government falls, that's not hard to accomplish


[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen; Oliver unlikely to run
http://www.politickernj.com/ba...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

GA-Sen (PPP): Max Cleland competitive
Cleland would make the seat competitive, though a disabled septuagenarian might not be the ideal campaigner in a tight race.  I think he would still lose to everyone but Broun.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

33, R, IN-09


Georgia is turning blue fast
I had no idea it was that Democratic a state or that Georgia independents favor Democrats. A lot has changed since the 2012 election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Detroit going down the drain
http://www.freep.com/article/2...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Correction
Detroit's already down the drain and is somewhere in the sewer already.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
And sewage is backing up on poor Michigan


[ Parent ]
Those are pretty accurate statements
Snyder has no choice but to appoint an emergency manager.  Even the liberal Detroit Free Press has editorialized in favor of one.

Electorally the most significant effect is on the Detroit mayoral race.  The election is this year and we'll see a bunch of candidates running for an office without much power.

Republican in deep blue MI-14


[ Parent ]
Another correction
Detroit's been in the sewer for years.  All that's changed is that the people can no longer ignore the stink.

Here's to hoping for real change in one of the most miserable places in America.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Rick Snyder on the spot?
Could this be the straw that breaks the MI D's back?  Having lived in MI for 6 yrs working with UAW types, I can tell you there is a deep sense of antipathy towards Detroit and what it stands for among a lot of these folks who otherwise are straight ticket D voters even including Obama, think of people from Westland/Redford/Milan.  A lot of them are descendants of white refugees from west of Detroit.  Rick Snyder and MI R party needs to hang Detroit completely around the neck of MI D party.  If we let loose on union worker bashing a little, I do see R's competitive at presidential level on MI.  Actually they have to if they want to win.  There is no reason a 79% white state can't be won by R's.

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree
Rick Snyder and MI R party needs to hang Detroit completely around the neck of MI D party.

One of the things I'm mentioning over and over again.

Livingston County - Run by Republicans for over 50 years.

Wayne County - Run by Democrats for over 50 years.

The only difference is that I'm not letting the white democrats off the hook either. They are as much the problem. Ed McNamara's machine and his proteges. Granholm. Mike Duggan. Bob Ficano. They are all McNamara's people along with Kwame Kilpatrick.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Huh?
If we let loose on union worker bashing a little

I would argue that there is more electoral benefit from union worker bashing since unions are becoming an increasingly insignificant factor in the workforce, and aren't all that popular these days.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
Ashley Judd
Why doesn't she just run in Tennessee? You know, where she lives?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

She probably doesn't know her Senator there
NT

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
MT-SEN
Baucus would be in trouble if a stronger Republican candidate got into the contest though. He would trail by 5 point margins to both Congressman Steve Daines (49/44) and former Governor Marc Racicot (47/42).
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Baucus is up 7% on Stapleton
66% have no idea who he is....

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
MT-Sen: Daines, Racicot Up 5 On Unpopular Baucus
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Baucus has a 45-48 approval rating. Steve Daines would lead him 49-44. Marc Racicot would be up 47-42. Interesting that Daines is our strongest candidate. I still prefer him wait until 2018. Fox trails 46-43. Again, think he should wait and go for Gov in 2016 or 2020. Baucus leads Stapleton 45-38. If Daines and Racicot decline soon, I think it'll be time to unite around Stapleton.

In a primary, Schweitzer leads 54-35. Schweitzer can't even break 50 though, leading Stapleton only 49-39. Schweitzer actually trails Racicot 46-45 and only leads Daines 48-45.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Amazing how 45/38 is a "pretty large lead"
For a 6-term Senator over an unknown state legislator. Wasn't Richard Burr extremely vulnerable when he put up the same numbers, month after month, against Elaine Marshall?

[ Parent ]
I think we're in for two years of
"Baucus is surging!!!!!"

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Wow
Baucus is in much worse shape than I thought; might justify a Tossup rating. With those Daines numbers it might not be too soon for him.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I'm surprised too
Who would have though two years ago we could see Tester win re-election and Baucus go down?

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Tester is a far better fit for Montana
I'm still surprised Tester won. He managed to earn the votes of an eighth of Romney's supporters in the state, a feat few political observers thought he could pull off. True, a strong showing by Dan Cox, the Libertarian candidate, put Tester over the finishing line. Nevertheless, the incumbent's 3 pt victory was impressive and one of the big stories of the night.

Tester won because he's likeable, moderate, and an emblem of Montana. Baucus is none of these things. His high profile belies his formidability as a candidate. Yes, he's won in the past (though a few times by razor-thin margins), and he surely can do so again. But never has he been so vulnerable.

There's been much talk that Baucus will run a campaign right of Tester's playbook. I think that's a mistake. Their records, images, and brands are too different. He needs to wage a Harry Reid-style campaign in which he touts his seniority and bludgeons his opponent to death for being some cooky right-winger. The former he can do; the latter requires a bit of luck

Ryan/Kasich 2016


[ Parent ]
moving this one to Tossup
I think he's more vulnerable than Landrieu, Begich, or Pryor.  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Can't go that far
Baucus has $3.5M and knows how to use it (see his 2002 race). Plus the GOP bench is weaker than in the other 3 unless Racicot runs.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I don't know much about his '02 race, could you
fill me in?  And I know he has money, but if the MT GOP nominates a decent candidate (and Stapleton seems decent enough), I don't think Baucus can hold up unless his approvals improve.  Don't forget that Crossroads and others will be attacking him at the same time, and between ObamaCare and his personal life, there's quite a bit to attack.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
All this talk about Racicot
I can't quite put my finger on it, but this push for Racicot reminds me of the push to get Tommy Thompson to run in WI.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Not even close
Thompson had high unfavorables and got crushed for the Bush ties in a Dem leaning state. Racicot is the biggest get for the gop in a state with no bench. Thompson was an okay recruit after Walker, Ryan, and Van Hollen passed. Racicot and Daines are essentially all we got unless someone from the private sector gets in and surprises.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Thompson had an approval of 48/36
on June 20, 2012. That compares to Racicot's 41/32 in this poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll...


[ Parent ]
Marquette is good and starting a race with 35+ negative rating isn't good
I don't like PPP's methodology, so their poll doesn't mean anything to me. Yet, even if the numbers were legit I would prefer to have 32% negatives in MT than 36% in WI as a Republican. But, I won't be surprised if a live call pollster found Racicot's spread much wider, in terms of favorable to unfavorables.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Uhh...
Being at 49 versus 50 is not a huge difference! It makes sense that Daines is your guys strongest candidate. Name recognition.

I think a lot of people are to quick to assume RICK BERG when we talk about Steve Daines and Tom Cotton. Berg defeated an institution in North Dakota, Earl Pomeroy in 2010. If he could defeat an institution in North Dakota, why couldn't he defeat Heidi Heitkamp? I think Daines and Cotton are a lot more prepared to take on Pryor and Baucus. I can't talk about Montana specifically, but Cotton is far and away the best candidate in Arkansas.  


[ Parent ]
Actually
Whoops...It appears that Daines has slightly lower name recognition than Racicot.  

[ Parent ]
Daines/Stapleton
The other option is that the two of them could pull a switcheroo later this year like Daines did with Rehberg.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
some libertarian is going to screw the pooch
Tester might have gone down in a 2 man race.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
WV-Sen/WV-2; Carte Goodwin out
@CartneyRenn: RT @ASourAppleTree: Per @lmessina, Carte Goodwin isn't running for #wvsen or #wv02.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I dont know why
people keep mentioning him as a possible candidate.

I think it's either Tennant or Robin Davis, unless Rahall starts to think he won't win WV-3. My WV contacts seem to think Davis would be the strongest candidate.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Kerrey's not running
http://www.kcautv.com/story/21...

No tears shed at the DSCC. Kerrey should stay in San Francisco. Maybe he'll actually pull the trigger on a mayoral bid one day

Ryan/Kasich 2016


WV-Sen; update
http://wvmetronews.com/2014-u-...

Both Goodwins out. Baxter in. Tennant and Davis tossups to get in, while Rahall is probably out.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Joe Heck bungles response to interviewer
http://www.ralstonreports.com/...

Nevada's top political journalist Jon Ralston assailed Heck for failing to repudiate radio talk show host Alan Stock's characterization of Gabby Giffords as a "prop" for pro-gun control groups.

Heck surely erred. Any comment that can be construed as a criticism of Giffords should be slammed on the spot. However, Ralston's analysis is over-the-top. What Heck said was fairly innocuous; in fact, most of his constituents likely agree with him.

I think this story actually says more about Ralston's business model than Heck's views on the 2nd Amendment. 24/7 political reporting is hard enough on the national level; it gotta be close to impossible in one of the least populous states in the nation. On a slow news day, Ralston has little choice but to exploit this

Anyways, expect the DCCC to make fodder out of this in some hyperbolic press release. After that, it'll be old news

Ryan/Kasich 2016


NYC Council District 31
In totally unexpected shocker, Orthodox Jewish Pesach Osina (D, R whatever) is on verge of winning. 91% in.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


6 month rental
The black establishment will unify around one candidate in time for the primary.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Definitely
Point here was the big backlash from Jews after the overt racism from the Richards campaign.

Now, Richards is ahead by 26 votes, 97% in.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
100% in
26 votes gap. Every vote counts.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Recount and absentee ballots
Here we come.
Fidler-Storobin all over again.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
And the district is like 10% white


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I'm amazed at the 30% Osina got in this 10% white district
Turnout, turnout, turnout.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Flyers like this cetainly helped drive turnout:
http://barkanreport.com/post/4...

Full backround on the election here:
http://politicker.com/2013/02/...

The key will be how many absentee ballots are outstanding. My hunch is Osina's campaign probably made more of an effort in this regards.

Does anyone know how the new lines will effect this district? Will the Jewish areas of Far Rockaway remain in this district or will they be added into Ulrich's?


[ Parent ]
The missing precinct is most likely an AA precinct
Osina could only get a short rental if that. What it did show is that he won't be able to gin up anti-semitism and expect Jews to ignore it.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Swing Seats
Wolf is 74. He's likely to retire some time in the next few cycles. You want swing seats like his to become open in years which lean toward your party. A mid-term with a Democratic President is likely to be the best the Republicans are going to get. If a Republican wins in 2016, that wouldn't be so bad. But you're rolling the dice there. You know what you're getting here. I'm all for some older Republicans retiring now.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
couple of factors here
incumbents tend to retire when they are no longer enjoying the job, regardless of weather that's a good or bad year to do so.

And "likely to seek reelection" isn't nearly as reliable as "unlikely to seek reelection" for predicting what the incumbent actually does.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
NJ-GOV
A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Chris Christie (R) with a record breaking approval rating of 74% and a stunning 37 point lead over likely Democratic opponent, state Sen. Barbara Buono (D), 62% to 25%.

Said pollster Maurice Carroll: "Most governors would kill for a 56 percent job approval rating. Republican Gov. Christie gets that from Democrats!"

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


2016 President
In an early look at the 2016 presidential election, New Jersey voters go 49 percent for Hillary Clinton and 45 percent for Christie. Clinton leads 60 - 34 percent among women while Christie leads 58 - 35 percent among men. He leads 90 - 7 percent among Republicans and gets 48 percent of independent voters to Clinton's 44 percent. Democrats go to Clinton 86 - 8 percent. 
The Garden State's native son tops New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo 54 - 36 percent. Christie leads 64 - 29 percent among men and wins 45 percent of women to Cuomo's 42 percent. Christie leads 89 - 7 percent among Republicans and 59 - 28 percent among independent voters. Democrats go to Cuomo 68 - 20 percent. 

Ds lead 47-40 on the generic legislative ballot.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
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