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How Could Anyone Vote Romney-Baldwin? Presidential vs. Senate Results, Part Two

by: jncca

Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 20:56:55 PM EST


 photo wisen2012_zps9f3b4f75.jpg

In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin overcame fears by many that she would be too liberal for the state, aided by Tommy Thompson's weak campaign partially stemming from a very competitive 3-way primary between him, Eric Hovde, and Mark Neumann.  She ended up winning by a small but comfortable margin.  Surprisingly, Baldwin, who is to the left of Obama, ended up doing better than him a sizeable number of Wisconsin counties.  Thompson, on the other hand, did better than Romney in many bluer counties.  Let's look at some patterns:

1) Baldwin's Old District: Tammy Baldwin, who had represented Dane County (Madison) and surrounding areas for over a decade, underperformed President Obama in every county of her district.  In fact, part of her district is in the corner of Wisconsin with the darker red, showing an even stronger Thompson performance there.

2) Trends:  More so than any other state so far, in Wisconsin we can see a clear example of how trends work their way down the ballot.  The areas Thompson overperformed most in included the ancestrally Republican Driftless Area in the Southwest of the state, as well as other D-trending areas in the southern half of Ron Kind's district, and the southern part of the state in general.  

3) Milwaukee Area a Mixed Bag: One of the suburban Milwaukee counties had Baldwin overperform, and in the others she underperformed by a bit.

4) Northwoods: Some, including myself, believed Baldwin's biggest problem would be with rural voters, especially in the ancestrally Democratic areas up North.  For one thing, Baldwin's lesbianism would likely be more of an issue there, and for another, her F rating from the NRA is the biggest problem in the most rural areas, which tend to have the highest gun ownership.  However, nearly every county she overperformed in was in the Northern half of the state, and Thompson only beat Romney in a few of them.  It could be that Obama did worse than Generic Democrat did here, as he did in most areas that are heavily based on extraction (MI's Upper Peninsula, MN's Northwoods, Coal Country in Appalachia).  Or it could be that the trend hasn't gone all the way down the ballot yet.  Either way, I'm surprised by this result.

5) Native Americans: Like in Montana (see Part One), the Republican Senate candidate did better than Romney among Native Americans.  Obama seems to be stronger with them than a Generic Democrat is.  

Now for New Mexico.

 photo nmsen2012_zpsce02554c.jpg

Heather Wilson's race vs. Martin Heinrich was rated Lean D by just about everyone, and the result showed that this was the correct rating.  Wilson performed decently for a Republican in New Mexico in 2012, but it was not enough.  My observations:

1) Hispanics: Heather Wilson was clearly more popular than Mitt Romney among New Mexico's Hispanics.  The most heavily Hispanic parts of the state are north of Albuquerque, and it corresponds pretty well to where she outran Romney the most.  
2) Native Americans: Same as Wisconsin here.  Her two best counties have decent Native populations.
3) Southern New Mexico: Heinrich did best in the Southern part of the state.  I have no explanation for this.  However, the darkest blue county is the only heavily Mormon county in New Mexico, so Romney ran ahead of Generic R by quite a bit.  Wilson, as a non-Mormon, didn't.
4) Albuquerque Area:  Both candidates were from Albuquerque.  Wilson narrowly outran Romney, but it was nothing impressive.
5) Polarization: Heinrich outran Obama in nearly every county Romney won, while Wilson outran Romney in nearly every county Obama won.  There are a few exceptions, but only about five.

Michigan:
 photo michigansen2012_zpse6adda64.jpg

Pete Hoekstra aired has disastrous, offensive Debbie Spend-It-Now ad and never really recovered.  He underperformed Romney in every county in the state.

1) Peninsular Strength: Stabenow most overperformed Obama in the state's two peninsulas: The Upper Peninsula and the Thumb.  The Upper Peninsula is likely due to a combination of ancestral Democratic strength and Obama's unique unpopularity due to extraction (evidenced by how close McDowell came to knocking off incumbent Benishek).  The Thumb I have no explanation for.  It's never really been blue.

2) Northeast Lower Peninsula: This area is also ancestrally Dem, and Stabenow did very well.

3) Western Michigan:  Much of the lightest colored areas are in Hoekstra's old district.  They're also ancestrally Republican.  This combination meant Hoekstra ran only a couple points behind Romney.  

4) Detroit Area, Blue Collar vs. White Collar: I'd say the Detroit area proper has five counties.  In the two most blue-collar ones, Monroe and Macomb, Stabenow overperformed more than she did in the other three.  To be fair, Oakland County is also ancestrally Republican, as is Western Wayne County, so that hurt her too.

This map, more than any other so far, shows how much ancestrally Dem or GOP counties can differ once you go even one step down the ballot.

jncca :: How Could Anyone Vote Romney-Baldwin? Presidential vs. Senate Results, Part Two
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Very very nice
Keep it up!  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


The Thumb
has certain Democrats that they really like. Jim Barcia and Terry Brown are two that immediately come to mind. While the area isn't historically Democratic, people in this area seem to be a bit more open to ticket-splitting than people elsewhere.  

23, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 

yeah
the Northernmost Thumb county most likely had more ticket splitting than anywhere outside of West Virginia and Missouri.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Huron County:
2012:
Romney 8806, Obama 6518
Stabenow 9174, Hoekstra 5702
Miller (R) 11344 Stadler 3590
Brown (D) 8798, Grimshaw (R) 4754 (Open Seat, Brown ex-rep, Grimshaw beat a sure loser incumbent in primary)

That's normal for Huron County. Votes R for president outside of Clinton 96 and Goldwater. Votes R for Governor outside of the 1986 wipeout.

Voted D for senate last four times (all blowouts and either weakly contested or not contested).

Voted for Candice Miller and Jim Barcia for Congress almost every time.

Voted for Barcia (D) for State Senate, along with Green (R) and Gougeon (R).

Voted for Brown (D) three of the last four times outside 2010. Voted R for awhile before that, at least to the pre-term limits era.
-----------------

I think a good case can be made for Huron County, but Chippewa County, Mackinac County, St Clair County, and maybe Tuscola could give Huron a run for it. North Macomb has some of that as well although that era is waning there.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Huron
as you can see on this map, it's colored in Black.  That means the Democrat ran at least 17 points ahead of Obama.  Only in Missouri and West Virginia can I find places that occurred (although parts of Florida's Panhandle potentially did so as well)

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Hoekstra vs Stabenow
This was like 06 all over again where what should have been competitive, wasn't.

Monroe County generally really isn't considered Detroit area, although it's northernmost part could be considered almost part of Downriver. It's more tied to Toledo. Monroe is 15 miles from there. It is more blue collar.

The thumb is social conservative and populist. Some parts are normally very republican (Sanilac and Lapeer Counties) while St Clair, Huron, and Tuscola are more competitive. They voted for Bush heavily, but also voted for Terry Brown and Jim Barcia. They probably had no idea who Hoekstra was. Stabenow also had Farm Bureau endorsement which helps in Sugar Beet land.

Stabenow has always done well in the Lansing area, Genesee, and Livingston Counties. Must of that area was part of her old congressional district (1996-2000 old 8th).

67.08% Ingham (63.01% O)
68.62% Genesee (63.30% O)
43.28% Livingston (37.85% O)

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


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