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Political Roundup for February 20, 2013

by: BostonPatriot

Wed Feb 20, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Senate

AK-Sen: Go away, Joe Miller!

AR-Sen: Lt. Gov. Mark Darr says "all options are on the table," including a run for Senate or the House (if Steve Womack or Tom Cotton goes for the promotion), as well as re-election.

GA-Sen: PPP's first look at the race shows Dems John Barrow and Max Cleland (who held this seat for one term in the 90's) competitive, with lots of undecideds. Cleland is unlikely to run, while Barrow would be a Joe Donnelly-type recruit for the DSCC. Jack Kingston, the only Republican from Southern Georgia considering, puts up the strongest numbers for Team Red.

KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell has a pretty funny web video attacking potential Democratic candidates. Apparently Alison Lundergan Grimes likes to refer to herself in the third person by all three of her names, which would be entertaining over the course of an 18-month campaign.

MA-Sen: There's momentum on Stephen Lynch's side: a new PPP poll has him making up 18 points on Ed Markey in under 3 weeks, and last week's MassINC poll had him within 38-31. This is still Markey's race to lose, but Bay Staters like to be asked for their vote...and Lynch is the only one bothering to ask.

MT-Sen: Sen. Max Baucus (D), who hasn't faced a real challenge since 1996, has very shaky numbers, trailing new Rep. Steve Daines and ex-Gov. Marc Racicot by 5 points each. (Daines, with his short voting record, would presumably be tougher to attack than Racicot, with his years as a lobbyist.) Corey Stapleton, who's already in the race, comes within 45-38 even though 66% of the state doesn't know him.

NE-Sen: Bob Kerrey (D-CA) left the door open, if only by the slightest of cracks, to yet another homecoming Senate bid. I think he'll find San Francisco too charming this time.

More NE-Sen: Usually Politico is the target of my accusations of lazy journalism, but this piece from The Hill is pretty terribly written. It seems like the editors wanted a story about the potential GOP field that included as many tired references to the Tea Party and internal conflicts as possible.

WV-Sen: Ex-Sen. Carte Goodwin and his cousin Booth are both out. With Nick Rahall unlikely to run, Dems are looking at Ralph Baxter, a lawyer who's moving back into the state from...(wait for it)...San Francisco. WV did elect a member of the New York Rockefeller dynasty, so Baxter (who grew up in Wheeling) may not be a bridge too far.

Governor

MA-Gov: Scott Brown, who recently signed on as an FNC contributor, is still thinking about running for governor next year.

VA-Gov: Another day, another favor repaid by Bill Clinton. This time it's a fundraiser for Terry McAuliffe, one of his oldest allies.

House

AZ-09: It's only the third-best target in Arizona, but Kyrsten Sinema's (D) district has seen the most early play. 2012 nominee Vernon Parker is running again, as is Marc Victor, who ran for Senate as a Libertarian last year but will run for Congress as a Republican.

IA-01: There's another Democrat named Patrick Murphy to keep track of, but fortunately this one goes by Pat. He's the early frontrunner for Bruce Braley's medium-blue open seat.

IL-02: Patrick Brutus, one of the also-rans in the Democratic field, dropped his bid yesterday. Reports that Rahm Emmanuel has been behind the recent spell of dropouts (clearing the field for Robin Kelly) should come as no surprise.

IL-13: David Gill did a great job of hiding his "perennial candidate" side during his well-waged 2012 campaign (seriously, his consultants deserve a lot of credit), but the craziness is coming out now.

NH-01: The first NRCC target of the cycle is Carol Shea-Porter, who is the subject of a small $20K TV buy. These early buys generally test the water to see what messages work and which incumbents have a glass jaw.

SC-01: Elizabeth Colbert Busch donated to Mark Sanford shortly after he launched his first gubernatorial bid in 2001. She claims that Sanford winning was in the best interest of her employer at the time.

VA-10: Rep. Frank Wolf, fortunately, has no intentions of retiring any time soon. His and Jim Moran's long tenures in NoVa have created a backlog on both sides of the aisle, and this seat in particular will be a free-for-all whenever Wolf vacates it.

Miscellaneous

Committees: The DCCC won January, $6.1M to $4.4M. Dems handily won the cash battle in 2012, although they also finished the year with more debt.

Campaign Finance: SCOTUS will hear a case challenging the limits on how much an individual can donate to candidates and parties each cycle. If the limits are overturned under the 1st Amendment, expect to see a reduced role for SuperPACs in the near future.

Massachusetts: In a move that seems tailor-made for RRH, which has a ridiculously high MA quotient for a Republican site, stats are now available for all Bay State elections since 1979. Have at it.

Mississippi: As of February 7, the State of Mississippi has banned slavery.  

BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for February 20, 2013
Tags: (All Tags)
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Mississippi - Lincoln
I am curious how Lincoln has done in Dixie.  It sounds like it is fairly popular down there as well.

28, Republican, PA-6

I'm more curious why...
some members of the MS legislature didnt vote on this amendment!

[ Parent ]
Then or now?
Most members were not in the legislature back then.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Then
It sounds like a few members may have abstained. It was 1995, so there were probably a few Thurmond-types left in the legislature that were still fighting the War Between the States.

[ Parent ]
abstention is cowardice
I don't think any politician should ever be able to bypass votes. Probably my biggest pet peeve with politicians, the president included.

I wonder how the vote would look today. I doubt it'd be 100% unanimous.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
I think it would be
Mississippi is dominated by Republicans instead of Dixiecrats now. And while many of them are party switchers, there's not the direct line to the Solid South that there was in the 90's.

Plus, it's a different world in 2013 than 1995. You'd be crucified in the media for not voting to ban slavery.


[ Parent ]
It would be
Mississippi is one of the states where the Dixiecrats did not join the Republican Party, but were more or less overwhelmed by a separate party apparatus.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Sestak considering a run
http://www.delcotimes.com/arti...

If Schwartz and Sestak both run, this has a good chance of becoming comical.

28, Republican, PA-6


Oh, man
You had to know "Joe the Jerk" was waiting for Schwartz to run just so he could jump in to sabotage her. He absolutely can't stand Allyson Schwartz (for good reason).

[ Parent ]
Yes
Considering neither of these candidates are machine hacks, I would expect a machine hack to run.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Sestak and the law
From what I understand, Sestak paid income taxes AND voted in Virginia in 2012, including the general election just 3 months ago.

Since there's a requirement that Sestak be "a resident of Pennsylvania for at least seven years" I am not sure how this would play out. I know he could probably take it to the courts & argue that he was a part time resident here - but - there's no set precedent in PA for this currently.

Would any of our JD members be interested in providing commentary?  

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Sestak
Several posters on dke claim this is wrong and that is still registered and in PA fwiw.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Sestak continued
I am aware that several people are insisting that this is not the case. But no one (as of yet) has been able to provide concrete proof as to where he paid taxes & voted.

I was given my information by people who are involved in County level politics in Delaware County.

This is precisely why we need a reporter to put him on the spot.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Also...
It really pisses me off that no reporters have thought to ask Sestak directly about this. From PoliticsPA.com to the Delco Times to the Inky, not a single reporter has thought to say "are you still a resident of Pennsylvania?"

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Agree
Sestak is a massive jack*ss.  He has a large following of devoted activists that will push his cause though.

Sestak + Schwartz + Philly Hack + Western PA Some Dude = Western PA Some Dude vs. Corbett = Corbett wins.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Only way this gets better
The only way this gets more comical is if Peg Luksik runs from the right against Corbett against the western PA conservaDem.  Corbett will be the liberal choice.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I suspect you're right
Don't think I ever mentioned this before, but here goes.

I did some research in 2010. For at least the last 100 years, every time the Republicans have nominated a candidate for Governor from Allegheny County, and the Democrats also put up a candidate from Allegheny County, the Republican has ALWAYS won.

Dan Onorato had no chance against Corbett. I suspect another flawed candidate from the same place would suffer the same curse.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Mississippi & 13th Amendment
Based on the wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T... , it looks like the effective date is the one in which the legislature ratified it and not the date that its submitted to the Archivist of the United States.

(Now that Mississippi has finally submitted it to them, they are now treating it as if the state hadn't waited a couple decades after voting on it to submit it.)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Constitution
Massachusetts never ratified the 12th, 22nd and 27th Amendments. Mitt Romney could be VP right now, Obama could be running for a third term in 2016, and Congressional Pay could be raised anytime. Sounds like fun!

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Interesting crosstabs in the PPP for LCV poll
Among the Massachusetts Democratic primary voters PPP surveyed, women were substantially more likely to support a pro-life* candidate than men were, however, among those that were pro-choice, which were still a large majority, they were more likely to say it would strongly influence their vote than pro-choice men.

(Sorry if this is too issue focused, I found it interesting)

Poll details here:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/1262...

*PPP used the word "anti-choice", which is probably fine for Dem voters, but may have skewed things. (This was probably their client's decision.)

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


Yeah
I'm not sure that's a good way of asking that question.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Yep
Especially considering that the pro-life Dems in this state are the old-school Catholic variety who say novenas for unborn children. That phrasing would not have pleased the quarter or so of the electorate who opposes abortion.

[ Parent ]
Interesting senate rankings by ideology
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

http://www.nationaljournal.com...

I wouldn't have guessed them.

25, Male, R, NY-10


Tone`
These lists highlight how much tone matters in determining whether an official is perceived as a conservative or not.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Agreed
One of the big reasons people like Ayotte, Portman and Toomey are in better shape than Conservative Republicans might normally be in their states.  They do a very good good of appearing moderate.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Compliment to them
There btw, not an attack on them.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
2012
The Senator I am watching in this regard from the 2012 class is Baldwin.  She is from a swing state and has a pretty liberal record, but is far from vocal about it.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
^^ Agreed 100%
n/t

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
VA-Gov: Tied at 38
http://www.politico.com/story/...

While each candidate gets the vast majority of support from members of their own party - 87 percent of Republicans back Cuccinelli, and 83 percent of Democrats back McAuliffe - Cuccinelli has a slight advantage among independents. He takes 33 percent of independents, compared with 29 percent for McAuliffe and a full 34 percent undecided.

3 way:

McAulliffe: 34
Cuccinelli: 31
Bolling: 13

27, R, PA-07.


another poll with Postive Approvals for KC
The only one that was negative was PPP, who was massively negative.

[ Parent ]
PPP has issues with making people look a lot more unpopular than they really are


[ Parent ]
At least they admit to that
Jensen polled his 8-year-old niece last year and found her with negative approvals.

[ Parent ]
agreed
But it usually isn't that bad.  KC has been anywhere from plus 5 to plus 25, and they had him minus 16.

[ Parent ]
VA-10
Still think Wolf is retiring. My guess is he's going to hold off to try and anoint a successor and try to prevent one of the many loose cannons in that district from getting traction.

R - MD-7

Best timing would be 2 years from now IMO
Line things up with very low turnout legislative elections in '15  

[ Parent ]
'14 wouldn't be bad
If Warner runs again he'll just get a sacrificial lamb challenger and won't drive turnout much.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
So you're thinking he retires in December, right before the filing deadline?
I wonder who he would want in the seat. Vogel perhaps?

[ Parent ]
Vogel or Comstock
Or maybe Tom Davis. All three would have varying degrees of difficulty winning a primary, so I'm thinking Wolf wants retire late enough (while giving them advance notice) to box out their competition.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Is there any whackadoo our there
That would seriously put the seat at risk or harm the caucus if they survived the election? None of those names would; although Tom Davis is a bit of a retread RINO unlikely to do much this late in his career  

[ Parent ]
Dick Black (nt)


Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Bob Marshall as well
There are a lot of duds in our bench in that area, holdovers from the 90s when it was much more culturally southern.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Why would Comstock have trouble winning a primary?
Seems to me like she would do VERY well in a GOP primary. She's got tons of credentials, would have no trouble raising lots of money and knows pretty much every national Republican.

[ Parent ]
Wolf & Young
I feel like we've been talking about these two retiring for several cycles now.  I think at this point I'm just going to go with they are in for life as the rumors keep circulating but it never happens.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Israel told Politico that Young's among his top 4 targets in 2014
I doubt he was being truthful. Israel knows that if Young runs for reelection that he'll win handily. He probably threw out the Floridian's name just to scare him into retirement. Republicans purportedly did the same when they called out Peterson and Rahall.

I suspect that Young will retire. After serving 40 years, the octogenarian likely wants to spend the rest of his life soaking up the sun back home than in a gridlocked, unproductive congress. Sessions pleaded him to stay three years ago; he listened. Now that's it a midterm, I think Republicans will let him go without putting up a fight.

Even if Young retires, the GOP should be favored to retain this seat. However, it can be tricky to hold in a presidential year; it was the only Republican-held seat in Florida that the President won last November.  

Ryan/Kasich 2016


[ Parent ]
not true
IRL

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
NV-LG, NV-4
Cegavske looking at both. http://blogs.rgj.com/politics/...

R - MD-7

Rendell says no to 2016
Rendell said jokingly, "I do not have the slightest desire to spend three years of my life in Iowa and New Hampshire."

http://delcotimes.com/articles...

28, Republican, PA-6


Rendell
Any chance he gets a cabinet slot?  Maybe replace LaHood?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Cabinet
I suspect he is holding out for the Clinton campaign and cabinet.  If Hillary is not running, I think he would be good for Transportation.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
WATN
Pete Domenici is an adulterer.
http://www.abqjournal.com/main...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Boinking your co-worker's daughter
wow, stay classy Pete.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
RRH Nerd Motor
Who would have replaced him had it come out then?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Udall
Unless Richardson wanted to appoint one of his personal cronies.

[ Parent ]
30 years ago
Richardson wasn't Governor yet and Udall was in his mid-30s.  Democrat Toney Anaya would have been Governor and may have appointed Richardson to the seat.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
That's what I get for not reading the article....
I assumed it was during his final term.

[ Parent ]
Bruce King maybe
or Jerry Apodaca would have been the other options.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
King would have chosen...
Bingaman since he was the AG and obviously wanted to move up, since he did!

[ Parent ]
Kind of looks like him
http://www.lrlaw.com/professio...

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Laxalt 2016?
Did you read his resume? Maybe a fmr JAG officer, who served in Iraq, with this kind of political petigree is what the GOP needs to take on Harry Reid in 2016. Laxalt name still carries weight in NV and Harry Reid can be Preceded by Laxalt and Succeeded by Laxalt!

[ Parent ]
We've done worse in NV
Than run a Heir Force veteran  

[ Parent ]
Agree
This guy has a political future.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
No substitute for Sandoval
NV-4 could be a good opportunity for him though.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I always found Domenici/Bingaman odd
I guess Iowa is the same way. A Republican who wins by landslides alternating with a Democrat who does the same.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Gross
A 47 year old man, with 8! children of his own, knocks up a colleague's daughter who is at least 20 years his junior.

This kind of stuff is why the general public has "family values" fatigue.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Wow
Amazing he was able to keep it quiet his whole career. Makes you wonder how many other's are getting away with it  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
NJ-02/NJ-LD-01
One of the stronger GOPers in Deep South Jersey is leaving the GOP:

http://www.politickernj.com/63...


Van Drew
Is this part of some Jeff Van Drew to stack the south Jersey Dems with a bunch of conservaDems?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Demographics?
Vineland is getting very Hispanic; may be no viable GOP path back to the Mayor's office  

[ Parent ]
Never heard of
This guy before. Interesting.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Schwitzer Run US Senate: MT??
via Political Wire

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) with a 19 pt lead over Sen. Max Baucus (D) in a possible 2014 Democratic U.S. primary.

Even more interesting, however, is that Schweitzer posted the poll on his Facebook page.


I suspect it's just bragging.


[ Parent ]
I bet this is just posturing for 2016
Even if Bauchus retires, I don't see him running.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Schweitzer
Wants to be president. Post-Obama, I don't see another US Senator being elected president for a while. He would be smart to avoid the US Senate.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
The senate has never been a great presidential launching pad
That being said, I don't believe that Obama being elected will have any effect on future senators' likelihood of getting elected. Heck, I bet a solid chunk of the US couldn't tell you even now that Obama used to be a senator.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree...
...BUT Obama being a US Senator who was directly elected President was an unusual fluke to me. The bigger fluke is that 3 major candidates running were all sitting Senators (McCain, Hillary, and Obama).

I expect plenty of US Senators to attempt to run for President in the near future, but I personally don't see any others being successful for quite a while.

I also personally believe that a large reason Obama is such a bad president is because he was a sitting Senator. But that's another conversation for another time.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: Wealthy Lou-vuhl GOP businessman to challenge McConnell?
This dude owns a factory that burned down in E Hampton, CT
It's the family bell shop, and after centuries it burned last fall. No insurance on the ancient premises, and he vowed nonetheless to reopen in town and keep "bells in Belltown". Cajoled $ from state to rebuild. Now he's gonna ignore his firm's arduous rebuild to play KY politician? I'm smellin something like a Churchill Downs stable  

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Karl Rove's Conservative Victory Fund should thow money at Joe Miller
to run for Congress in a primary vs Don Young. If Rove wants his group to really be effective that's the best way they can clear the Senate field and at the same time actually put Joe Miller to good use. They should be talking to him and helping him line up as much money as he wants to primary Don Young! It's this kind of intervention that's been lacking in the past. Think about how different 2010 would have been if there was a Conserative group offering to pour money into a money a Christine O'Donnell CONGRESSIONAL campaign!  

Straight-Party Voting
Should straight-party voting be an option for voters? Two North Carolina state senators filed a bill to eliminate it. Democrats have voted that way in the state more than Republicans. There are more Democrats than Republicans in North Carolina but Democrats seem to use it more than Republicans percentage-wise. http://www.bizjournals.com/tri...

we abolished it a decade or so ago
Here in Missouri shortly after Republicans got the trifecta.

And for the same real reason the NC state senators just filled their bill.

The reason for the press is to encourage voters to consider the candidates for each race on their own merits and that voters are still free to only look at the D and R by their names if they wish.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
I'd love to see it banned
That would hurt us in my 60%+ county to an extent, but I'll trade that off for statewide improvements.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen article
Yes, that is a poorly written article that shows a typical lack of understanding of the state's politics. There is no establishment vs. grassroots battle in the state-all of it is on the outside. The Senate primary last year was a good indication of that. Outside groups would have had you believe that Bruning was the establishment candidate and Stenberg was the grassroots candidate, which is laughable. I find it interesting that the Senate Conservatives Fund brags about Deb Fischer's win showing that a conservative can win in the state. If they liked her so much, why did they endorse Stenberg? Their utterly perplexing decision to get behind a 3 time loser in Stenberg makes me hope they stay out of next year's race despite the fact that I actually support their overall goals. They just simply don't understand the state's politics enough to get involved. The only way next year's race in Nebraska turns into an establishment vs. grassroots scenario is if outside groups make it so. People within the state won't see it as so.

42, R, NE-1.

Kathy Hochul, lobbyist
GA State Reps Go Seventeenther
I have half a mind to start a superPAC specifically to primary seventeenthers. Dumbest political movement ever. http://www.douglascountysentin...

R - MD-7

I never understood the mentality of 17thers
I don't understand the logic behind taking the voters out of the equation.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I'm not a supporter of repealing the 17th amendment
But, one of the problems it brought was more of a disconnect between the voters and their state legislature. Before the 17th amendment local legislators were more known and the voters were more engaged with local, state, and national issues. In the modern era, most voters aren't too engaged at the state level and frankly, I'm guessing the average voter probably couldn't tell you three things about their state legislators, or perhaps even their names.

I think the issue that most 17ers (I don't know, is that what they call themselves?), is that it puts people like Landrieu (LA) in office when in all likelihood a state legislator would not.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Large parts of the population have always...
...known nothing about their state legislators. The idea that there was a time in the 1880's when the people carefully considered their vote for the local State Representative more than they do today is nostalgic hogwash.

The entire reason the 17th amendment exists in the first place is that because the Senate was becoming a clearinghouse of Senators who literally bought their seats by buying up state legislatures (who like today, are much cheaper to buy off than a federal legislator).

The vast majority of the population has always been low-information voters and always will be low-information voters. Indeed, today, with the advent of the Internet and sites like this, I'd argue there are more high-information voters than ever before.  


[ Parent ]
My ex-girlfriend and state legislatures
Last year, I dated a girl for about five months. After we started dating, I learned that she, too, was a conservative. This girl must have watched like an hour or two hours of Fox news a night. At some point, we went to a political event and the topic of Mike Madigan came up. Afterwards, she asked me whom he was and I told her he was the speaker of the IL House.

She didn't even know that state legislatures existed. Tells you how in tune even some people who watch the news are with what their state legislatures are up to.


[ Parent ]
Bingo.
I mean, if you personally think we should eliminate the 17th because you believe we'll spend less, be more responsible to the needs of the states, or whatever, OK. I disagree, but that's fine.

But, this nostalgic idea that people will suddenly pay more attention to their local State Senate race instead of The Bachelor or the Bulls-Clippers game is insanity.

For voters in the 1880's, replace the Bachelor and Bulls-Clippers games with 12 hour work days, church socials, penny novels, and whatever local sport they're involved with.

If anything, I believe this would be bad for the actual governance of a lot of state legislatures because these races would become even more nationalized since instead of being about the actual issues state legislatures deal with like education, law enforcement, and so on, every election would become about the Senate seat that's up next.  


[ Parent ]
Exactly
If state legislatures directly voted for US Senators then local issues would get short shrift.

Also, I suspect many Republicans assume that since the GOP controls most legislatures that repealing the 17th would result in a Republican Senate majority.  However the results of many state legislative races would be different if the central issue was who would be the next US Senator.  If last year's Michigan state house elections were all about Debbie Stabenow vs. Pete Hoekstra the Dems certainly would have won the majority.

Republican in deep blue MI-14


[ Parent ]
The Democrats are very much packed in Michigan
A lost part of is self packing, but the lines pack them even more.

It's much easier for Republicans to win a majority of districts there than state wide.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
I'm well aware of those facts
but MI Republicans didn't do a good job drawing the state house districts in 2011 like they did with the senate, which is safe for the decade.  The GOP only won a 59-51 house majority in 2012.  At least 5 districts won by Republicans were by 5% or less and several more were by margins only slightly larger than this.  It wouldn't have taken much to swing these races the other way.

Republican in deep blue MI-14

[ Parent ]
Sometimes
I wish I didn't know what a state legislature is...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Or think of it this way
1880: 9.2 Million Votes/50.2 Million People
2012: 129 Million Votes/308.8 Million People

A lot more people voting proportionally today, which is a good thing, but it also probably means that those voting back in the day, were most likely to know what they were doing

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Or were lucky enough to be born white and male.
Unless you think, many of those machine voters in urban areas or straight-ticket voters in the Solid South knew the vagaries of Garfield and Hancock's economic plans. :]  

[ Parent ]
My high school history teacher holds this opinion.
He just doesn't trust the people and is a true reactionary. I find it charming, though the proposal annoys me.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Reactionary
I am a reactionary and distrust direct democracy, but this simply is not the way to reform the Senate.  Having the US Senate beholden to the states would encourage every Senator to be Robert Byrd.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I am somewhat reactionary myself,
in that I want to go back to some old ways. However, I'm not on board with the full slate, mostly because I know it would never pass.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Better target for reform
Two areas where I think you could reform would be allowing one chamber of the state legislatures to be apportioned by region or proportionally and creating a uniform system for filling senate vacancies.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
From what I can tell
The argument is that it turned the Senate from a body that was supposed to represent the interests of the states to one that was basically at-large house seats.

It's essentially the reason why the Founding Fathers created the Senate in the first place (and why it now kinda violates 1 man 1 vote)--it was designed to give state legislatures a voice in the federal government rather than the average voter, who already had the house for that.

It's really a weak argument though, considering that the Founding Fathers also, say, created the electoral college to prevent factionization and the direct election of the president, along with some other ideas we would today find unusual in a democracy.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
WE ARE NOT A DEMOCRACY!!!!!!
The constitution was written specifically to PREVENT Democracy (among other reasons). Democracy ultimately devolves into the masses using the government to legally steal money from the wealthy. The Republican form of government is different and, in theory at least, prevents many of the problems of Democracy, which is basically mob rule.  

[ Parent ]
looks like
assuming it went back to the state legislatures doing the selection that real point would be to attempt to give Republicans a lock on the US Senate.

(Both the lower & upper bodies of the Missouri legislature have been controlled by Republicans for quite a few years and so we would have 2 Republicans in the Senate instead of 1 D & 1 R.)

There are other such states.
I'm sure someone else could list which Senate seats Republicans have in which at the time of the last election, the Democrats had control of their state legislature.

The other point would be returning the influence that state governments had (in the senate) prior to 17th.
(Again, the assumed benefit here to the conservative position by supporters is that the states would instruct senators not give any more unfunded mandates to the states.)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Agreed
The first time I heard somebody on a talk show mention repealing the 17th Amendment, I thought they meant the 16th Amendment. It never would have occurred to me that somebody would want to repeal the 17th Amendment. I have yet to hear a single compelling argument why it should be repealed. To me, it's one of these movements that spreads around because people think they're being intelligent by talking about it. I don't think most of these people have any clue as to the ramifications of it. In what strange world do these people think we would get better Senators by putting the decision in the hands of state legislators? It makes zero sense to me.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Bastion of corruption
The Senate would be even worse than today as members would be sent there to essentially extract revenue and nothing else.  Robert Byrd times 100!

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Senators with Pork Fever
Ryan, would a GOP controlled PA Legislature have kept re-appointing Murtha just for that purpose?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Specter
Until recently you would have had a massive porker in there.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Or a prize for political machine bosses
Norcross and Adubato would probably be NJ's two senators for life. Vito Lopez and Donne Trotter might be in the Senate as well.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Honest Graft
We would have 100 members engaging in honest graft for their appointments.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
We would have had a half-century of Kennedys
Oh, wait...

[ Parent ]
The point of the Senate
was to represent state governments, which created the federal government, after all.  They would serve as a check on the power of the federal government over the states.  Longer terms and larger jurisdictions made sense, as senators would be accountable to a smaller group of state legislators who wouldn't forget their votes quickly.

Since the progressives repealed the 17th amendment, the size of the federal government has exploded from 2% of GDP to 24% of GDP.  Obviously there are lots of factors, but I don't believe all of that would have happened if Senators had resisted encroachment on the authority of state governments.

http://metricmash.com/us-gdp.aspx
http://www.whitehouse.gov/site...

I know the 17th isn't going to be repealed, but I think the Founding Fathers got it right.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton


[ Parent ]
Precisely
It is surprising to me that so many people on here support the seventeenth amendment.

[ Parent ]
An honest question.
Why is being a shill for your state legislature interests, which may or may not be corrupt as hell any better or worse than being a shill for the actual voters interests in your state? For instance, while it's not likely, there is a chance there could be an anti-farm subsidy Senator from Iowa or an anti-defense contractor Senator from Washington or an anti-car industry Senator from Michigan with the popular voter. Once you throw in a state legislature that is far more connected and dependent on those industries than the whole populace of the state.  

[ Parent ]
Interesting way of looking at it
Such a system would almost certainly mean the Senate would not have good government types in its ranks.  The Senate was stacked with political hacks before it was reformed.  Look at the Canadian Senate and you will see what you get when you have an unaccountable body.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
maybe a house of commons/lords setup
The House would be responsible for day to day legislation and appropriations, and the Senate would be given more power over confirmations, foreign affairs, and the like.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
House of Lords
The House of Lords has become so neutered it is pointless now.  With the House of Commons ability to trample it at nearly any turn, it needs to be empowered or abolished.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I just don't see
how you would get better Senators willing to resist the power of the federal government if they were chosen by state legislators than if they were chosen by people. I mean it just sounds ludicrous. I think it's very difficult to argue and there is zero evidence to back up the assertion that the federal government would have been any smaller now with Senators chosen by state legislatures. Is this a movement that just wants to go back to the original intent of the Constitution for it's own sake or is really trying to make the Senate better? I think it's the former and if it really isn't going to make the Senate better than it's a solution in search of a problem that doesn't exist.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
No evidence
The opposition of the 17th Amendment ignores the history of its ratification.  There are several key points:

1) The states pushed for the direct election of senators because the process had become so corrupted.  Bribing was common.

2) The states had a difficult time filling senate seats.  It caused political deadlock and seats often went empty for months if not years.  This often paralyzed any other state agenda for months.  Delaware went four years with an open seat once.

3) The states had already started implementing advisory elections in which the state legislature would be bound to select the winner of the advisory election by state law.

4) The states had petitioned Congress and Congress only acted to prevent a constitutional convention.

5) The states voluntarily gave up their hold by ratifying the Amendment and by having 2/3 of the Senate vote for direct election.

6) There is no evidence the states would have not used the federal government as a resource for revenue at all cost.  Imagine 100 Robert Byrds bringing home the bacon.  We would have had endless pork West Virginia style with even less accountability now.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Direct election
I don't get the idea that a senator elected by a state legislator would be more beholden to the state. With direct election of senators, a senator must win the votes of people in the entire state. Previously they needed to win the few votes in the legislature. State legislators always get less votes than congressmen or senators. People aren't really paying much attention and leave the line blank. Or vote for some name they've heard of.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
On #6
I think proponents are saying that if states selected the senators, they wouldn't be large unfunded mandates to the states.

Especially if the informal tradition was attached of state legislatures giving instructions to the Senators on how to vote in which the Senator was culturally obliged to either vote that way or resign when he could not in good conscience do so.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Looking at the delegation pages
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

Some of these states seemed to change senators fairly often. Were senators appointed for 6 year terms or did the terms last until the legislature decided they wanted someone else?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
terms were 6 years but
Tennessee in particular had a history of whenever that legislation changed back and forth between Whigs & Democrats of sending the existing Senators of the other party instructions to support __, that being the cause most favored by the other party. Which given the informal social convention of follow the instructions or resign led to resignation.
The giving of instructions to Senators was very common in the 19th century, but more commonly used to stiffen the spines than to remove them. This practice though ended a decade or two before the 17th amendment.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
details
Anderson(class 2) : Appointed to fill last couple of years of remaining term.
The state legislature was unable to agree on who to appoint and left the seat vacent for a couple of years.

Foster (class 1) Whig : First appointed to fill last part of a term.
New legislature gave him instructions along with the appointment; he refused to accept the appointment. Several years later appointed to the same seat and he died in office.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
I dont get it personally
But if we are going to repeal it and go back to legislatures picking the Senators I would demand the removal of any and all partisan redistricting, otherwise the Senate could basically be gerrymandered as well.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
You know you have a problem when.....
The lede in a story about you begins with the words "No Joke":
http://nation.foxnews.com/robe...

Apparently most people thought this was an Onion story but it looks like Afghan President Hamid Karzai really did meet with Sen. Bob Menendez to discuss public corruption! Headlines like these is why Harry Reid really needs to remove Menendez as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee ASAP!


LOL


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The Liberal Baby Bust
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com...

Today, fertility correlates strongly with a wide range of political, cultural and religious attitudes. In the USA, for example, 47% of people who attend church weekly say their ideal family size is three or more children. By contrast, 27% of those who seldom attend church want that many kids.

Interesting. The article is 5 years old but the trends have continued. Youth populations have essentially completely collapsed in the most liberal areas of this nation, and the next generation is being raised in the South.

27, R, PA-07.


Its our one main Demographic advantage
Emphasizing family values tends to lead to bigger families.

I don't even know why its a surprise to most people that the party that supports Abortion, Gay Marriage, and more aggressive feminism tends to produce fewer kids.  I imagine if you broke it down by ideology and race that White Liberals have on average 33-50% less kids than White Conservatives.

High birth rates among Minorities (who tend to be the Democrats who regularly attend church) are the Democrat's saving grace for that.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Its why liberals have changed on question of immigration
Go back to Clinton era and you will see liberals on the other side of immigration question , and for good and rational reasons.  There is a NYT editorial from 2000 that opposes amnesty and increased immigration, with that old rascal Tom Delay (along with GWB the 2 most destructive forces within GOP) supporting both.

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
Unions opposed amnesty
which is why the Democrats did so too.  Unions switched on the issue because they thought they could unionize these new immigrants.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Right
I remember the last flurry of 'liberal baby bust' articles in early 2006 quite well. It was a key component of the Permanent Republican Majority™. I thought the 2006 election put an end to both for good, but I guess it was overdue for a comeback.

There Is No Liberal Baby Bust

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Right
Some of those kids will move to the cities and become liberals.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Yes, but in the other order
The young people I knew that moved from suburbs into St Louis City were already liberals before they moved.
 

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Then
They will get married, move back to the suburbs and become conservatives again. Alternatively, as was the case with my sister, they will move to a larger metro, and become a conservative.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
I was talking specifically about urban cores, not entire metros.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Sure there is
Its not like White Liberals are on extinction watch or anything, but the fact that Liberals have statistically less kids than Conservatives has been true for decades.  Its just been more than offset by a rising minority population (that's also helped significantly close the baby gap).

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
FYI
The rising minority population is liberal. The first article doesn't specify "white liberals" at all. The second article expressly rejects the qualifier.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Not really convinced
Even ignoring that minorities are having kids at a rate greater than conservative whites, this ignores that the kids of these conservative parents rebel and don't vote the way their parents do.

I'm willing to bet that the parents of the 18-29 age group voted at least 55-45 for Romney.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Children generally model their parents' voting behavior
The Ted Turner father-son dynamic is an aberration. Parents condition their children at any early age to think and act like them.

True, some children eventually rebel by bucking their parents' ideology. However, this generally happens in unusual circumstances (e.g, when parents shamelessly try to shove their values systems down their grown children's throats). We think this happens more regularly because the media has an obsession with parent-children conflict.

Furthermore, rebellions aren't always life-changing. Many disgruntled teens revert to their old attitudes once they've "released steam" and "seen the light."

In regards to 2012, there were fewer incidents of parents voting for Romney and children voting for Obama than most of us assume. Look at data broken down by race and geography. White youth, along with Southern youth, voted decisively for Romney -- just like their parents.  

Ryan/Kasich 2016


[ Parent ]
I think
My family is likely not normal for political views.

Paternal Grandparents were New Deal Democrats who left the party after Kennedy/LBJ, never came back.  Much like Reagan, they turned pretty conservative pretty fast, although their conversion was a few years after Reagans.  They had My father and 2 aunts in the early 50s and thus they all grew up in the late 60s early 70s.  Both Aunts are as liberal as they come, probably as liberal as my wife.  To give you an idea of how liberal my wife is, she makes me look like a Conservative at times (Usually on issues of Foreign Policy, War, Guns etc.).  My father however has always been moderate.  He is one of those mythical swing voters who tends to go where the country goes for the most part.  He voted GHWB, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Kerry, Obama, Obama.  So he likely leans a little left, but is very comfortable voting for both sides.

My Mother is the most religious member of the family, very Roman Catholic so she is somewhat socially conservative.  However she is always decently Economically liberal.  She usually votes how my dad does but lately has been very vocally pro-Obama so I think she has drifted left.

I think everyone knows where I stand.  So there is really no direct line here.

My wives family is pretty down the line liberal though.  Maybe not as much as her, but probably on my level.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Heh
Speaking of family politics... my maternal grandfather liked Richard Nixon before, during, and after when it was cool to. :)

[ Parent ]
Your mileage will vary
My parents are staunch baby boomer Democrats and neither has ever voted for a Republican or ever will. My siblings and I all veered rightward in the late 80s and early 90s. Ironically, I veered the furthest. I still have my signed copy of The Way Things Ought to Be! We all veered back into the fold during the mid to late 90s. Now I'm basically the 'enforcer' of our political allegiance (it's my role to demolish whatever GOP talking points my siblings pick up).

For what it's worth, we're also doing our part to repopulate the organic food marts and the folk music festivals. It looks as if we'll end up with ten replacement liberals when all is said and done, a surplus of four. I guess that assumes we all make it through the war on marriage, but everything seems quite solid on that front for now.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Y'all and my great aunt's kids
are just popping out little liberals like nobody's business. There was a period of a few years during which every time I went to a family reunion on my mother's side, there was a new child or two or three whose name I had to learn. After three years of this, I just gave up. All those children are going to grow up in very liberal households in blue areas. One or two might become conservatives. I wouldn't be surprised if a few don't rebel against such stridently liberal parents. Still, most will probably be another generation of liberals. Family reunions with those branches will still have heated conversations for years to come. Oh, joy...

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
My Family is also strange
My dad's side of the family (the only side of my family that seems to show interest in politics) is pretty split, on his mom's side, many were ancestrally conservadems (in Nebraska, no less!). One of them chaired a county Democratic party, and another, younger member of that generation, had a wife that worked for Ben Nelson.

That said, from his mother on down, we generally lean conservative, with myself, my dad, my aunt, and my cousins on that side of the family having always been Republicans (myself probably having decided the earliest, nearly thirteen years ago at the age of eight), and staunchly fiscally conservative, but with all of us having different opinions when it comes to social issues.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
The 'boomerang' phenomenon does exist.
I returned in the summer between the 8th and 9th grades.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
My mother's family is strange.
My maternal grandmother's parents were conservatives who became liberals/libertarians. Their three children are down-the-line liberals. My great aunt's five children are all liberal (one moderately so) and all of their spouses are liberal. My great uncle has no children of his own, though at least one of his adopted sons and his wife are conservatives. Here's the strange part: despite my grandmother's liberal stances (and political activity), my mother turned out conservative-leaning and both of her brothers are solidly conservative. They didn't spend most of their time with my grandfather (divorce), and anyway, he was a Blue Doggish Democrat. The only non-conservatives in my father's family are one of his brothers and his wife (though his brother seems to be coming around).

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
mine
As far as I can tell, for generations my family has been conservative. But they started as Democrats. (My parents were born in Oklahoma City; early baby boomers) They transitioned to voting independent to voting Republican as they found themselves in increasing disagreement with national Democrats and more in agreement with Republicans. (They would tend to describe it as we didn't leave the party; the party left us.)
Except for Dad's younger brother who went all liberal on us. The story is he fell on his head one too many times.
Mom's side of the family lives in Yukon where many of them are active in the local branch of the GOP. (Some of them have been delegates to state conventions.)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Not sure
I'm from a split political extended family. I think part of it is the different factors.

Part of the reason I went R (from I/L although I never liked Clinton) however was rebellion. I wasn't rebelling against my parents, but rebelling against the school bureaucrats, gun grabbers, and all the PCU type of regulations out there. Democrats ran those areas. It wasn't about taxes, although I didn't like them. It was every other type of regulation out there, from federal down to local (East Lansing) level. Speech codes, conform or be cast out, gun grabs, etc.

I became an R because the D's needed to be defeated. I still feel that way as I did when I got off the L/R fence 13 years ago.

Parents leaned right, but they aren't that political. They get involved more after I entered "the business."  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
even that is generally droppping
2011 births are at record lows, and even Hispanic immigration has slowed/halted.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
100% predictable, and equally reversible
Both birth rates and immigration rates are directly influenced by economic growth, or lack thereof.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
BTW
If you want a return to 'traditional' values the best way to get there is not by having more children, it's by having more adult men. The one factor that reliably predicts whether a society will be 'moralistic' or 'libertine' - going all the way back to the Greco-Roman Era - is the sex ratio.

Whenever you have a shortage of women, monogamy is at a premium and 'family values' are ascendant. Whenever you have a shortage of men, they are free to 'play the field' with impunity, and secularism prevails.

So, if you really want to tilt demographics in favor of conservatism, the way to do it is to figure out how to get more men to survive into their twenties, thirties, and forties. More boys than girls are born (that's the case worldwide), but in the U.S. there are more women than men on the 'marriage market' because more boys and men die in every age group. That's how it's been since World War II.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
hum
Prior to modern medicine, there were a lot of deaths to females in child birth. Thankfully, that's no longer the case.

More medicine though can't really prevent the extra male deaths; those extra ones are not from natural causes. (It's from the guy being stupid and indirectly killing himself and/or others.)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Christie more popular than God
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.c...

28, Republican, PA-6

the economy doesn't matter anymore
NJ's economy is in the toilet. Of course, for most of Obama's voting base in 2012, it was too.  

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen
davecatanese ‏@davecatanese
Tipster says @lisamurkowski's choice for #AKSEN seat is Judge Tim Burgess. "Murkowski definitely spoke to him about it and encouraged him"

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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