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Weekend Open Thread

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 16:57:46 PM EST


1) As the gubernatorial season is just beginning, which sitting governors are you watching to see if they retire?

2) Which off year municipal elections are you interested in at the moment?

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Weekend Open Thread
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Weekend Open Thread | 148 comments
Gomez asked Patrick for appointment
PA-06
I have my dataset completed and will soon move onto mapping. I expect a diary out this or next weekend. Happy Friday, folks!

Weekend questions
1) I believe that Quinn will ultimately retire.

2) I can't say I am too tuned in to 2013 elections, although Minneapolis Mayor is one that has me a little curious. St. Paul also has a mayoral election, but Chris Coleman is running, and his reelection is a simple formality.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Question 1
I'm looking at Tom Corbett and Rick Scott.  At this point I cannot see either one of them being reelected.  

Christie 2016  

.
1) Rick Scott.  I think it's Tilt D with him and Tilt R without him, so his retirement could cause the GOP (with Putnam or Bondi) to keep the seat.
On the other hand, a Pat Quinn retirement moves the seat from Tilt D to Lean D.  Both will be very important to watch over the next year.

2) None, really.  I guess Los Angeles Mayor because the L.A. Mayor is traditionally a strong statewide Democrat for the future, but the California Democratic bench is already strong so it's not that big of a deal.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


I think Crist v Scott
is Lean D.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Two things
1) A left-wing Indy candidate could get over 5% of the vote.  A lot of Democrats will be unable to hold their noses to vote for such an opportunist.
2) I'm really not that sure Crist can win a primary.  Look at Specter.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Ok fine
if Crist wins the primary, the race is Lean D.  Crist would win enough middle of the road independents/Republicans that he could win even if he loses some of the hard-core liberals.  
And Scott isn't immune from the "opportunist" charge, given his flip on the Obamacare Medicaid issue.

As far as the primary, unless Alex Sink runs, the FL Dem Party has nobody who could challenge Crist.  You can count on the national party (from Obama to DWS) supporting Crist to the hilt.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Crist
I just really think Crist's level of BSing would alienate voters, both liberal and moderate.  The fact that much of Florida hates Scott could be what puts him over the top, but I can't put any race at Lean D when I'm not even sure I could vote for the Democrat.  Crist and Jon Corzine are the only two gubernatorial nominees I can think of in the past 5 years where I would have issues pulling the trigger, except in Maine/Rhode Island 2010 due to tactical voting.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Well I think
you're letting your personal revulsion toward Crist color your analysis.    

Scott (as well as Corbett in PA) are really unpopular, and their unpopularity is a mile deep. Things can still change, but the GOP really should search for alternatives in both of these states.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I mean I had it at Tilt D
It takes a lot for me to rate a race with an incumbent as anything beyond that.  I'm not saying Scott is the favorite.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
FL-18; Haridopolis now a lobbyist.
@SayfieReview: Times: Florida's newest lobbyist: Mike Haridopolos http://t.co/wXR0jXS8LO #sayfie

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Los Angeles elections
We have an unusual election in that 5 of the 7 city council seats that are up are open and there's no clear favorite for mayor.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

My answers
1. Corbett, Perry, Otter, Bentley, Chafee.

2. The LA Mayor's race next week, obviously, though it's looking depressingly like a runoff between the IBEW stooge (Greuel) and the SEIU stooge (Garcetti). I guess I'd be for Greuel in that matchup because I can't imagine the IBEW is worse than the SEIU. I'm really hoping, if not James, then at least Perry might make a runoff spot, as she seems slightly less business-unfriendly.

I'm also interested in the race to replace/take on Menino, which just kicked off this week with Councilman John Connolly exploring a bid.

How the Detroit mayoral race changes after having the office stripped of its powers should be interesting as well.

R - MD-7


The peanut gallery that kneecapped Dave Bing
Have only themselves to blame when Snyder emasculates the whole lot of em  

[ Parent ]
the interesting thing about the next Detroit Mayor
is that in 18 months time (sometime in October 2014) a 2/3 vote of the city council can get rid of the emergency manager.  So the next mayor will be pretty powerless the first year in office but he/she can let the emergency manager make all the tough decisions and take the political heat.  When the manager is removed the new mayor can step into a much better financial situation and claim credit for a better city.

Republican in deep blue MI-14

[ Parent ]
White Flight in London
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-2...

The consequence, as revealed by the latest census, is that white Brits are now in a minority in London, making up just 45% of its residents.

Interesting. What I've heard is that there are a couple London seats on the equivalent of the UES (ie wealthy bankers) that are the safest Torie seats in the country. The UES is of course nothing close to Republican.

27, R, PA-07.


Well
the UES used to be among the safest GOP seats until the 1960s (when culture overtook wealth as the primary reason for voting).  Heck, the GOP held both Congressional seat (and the state Senate seat) there until the early 1990s, and it was only because of the addition of part of Queens Co that cost the seat.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Even after they lost that Congressional seat
due to Queens & Brooklyn sections that were lumped into the district the GOP still controlled all local office on the UES (State Senate, Assembly & 2 City Council seats). In fact a Republican even won the Council Seat that Carolyn Maloney vacated when she won the Congressional seat. It wasnt until the "Reding and Blueing" of America did the UES turn firmly Democrat. When voting became a cultural identification people on the Upper East Side of Manhattan didnt want to be identified with "Red America". In fact someone should write a book entitled "What's the matter with Manhattan? Why wealthy New Yorkers vote against their own economic interest."

I guess in the UK voting Tory is still identified with being posh and those wealthy bankers certainly want to be identified with the posh party.


[ Parent ]
Hmm
The UES voted Dem for President well before that.  I don't have the numbers, but I'd be surprised if any GOP Presidential candidate other than perhaps Ford in 1976 carried that area.  I doubt even Reagan carried it in either of his two landslides.

The Republicans who won the local races in the UES from the 60s onward were largely liberals to the left of William Weld.

In fact someone should write a book entitled "What's the matter with Manhattan? Why wealthy New Yorkers vote against their own economic interest."

Ronald Brownstein, a liberal columnist, suggested as much in 2009 (when he had a mini-orgasm about the death of the "Permanent Republican Majority"),


That suburban realignment has been central to building a new Democratic majority. Yet these books downplayed or ignored completely that upheaval in our political landscape-which has been driven, in substantial measure, by the GOP's unconditional identification with a Southern-flavored conservatism. The principal problem with What's The Matter With Kansas? is that Frank just as easily could have written What's The Matter with Bergen County? He is quite acute in describing how Republicans utilize cultural grievances to entice working-class whites into voting against what he sees as their class interests, but he almost completely ignores the willingness of socially liberal, upper-middle-class whites to vote against their ostensible class interests by supporting Democrats.

http://www.democracyjournal.or...

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I meant
but I'd be surprised if any GOP Presidential candidate other than perhaps Ford in 1976 carried that area since the 1960s.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
With respect to the UES . . . .
The area started moving to the left as early as the late 1950s.  Representative Coudert (of Coudert Brothers infamy for the lawyers on the site), who served during the 1950s, was the last "right of center" representative to hold a UES congressional seat.  And even he had a few close calls before retiring in 1958.  

Coudert was replaced by John Lindsey in 1958.  Lindsey was the consummate liberal Republican and like Jacob Javits was further to the left than most non-reform NY Democrats.

When Lindsey became mayor in 1965, the seat went to liberal GOPer Kupferman for one term.  Then, in 1968, Ed Koch (RIP) became the first Dem to win the area since 1934.  During his tenure as a representative from 1968-1977, Koch was a mainstream liberal and managed to hold the seat without much difficulty.  

Green won the seat in 1977 and held it until the 1990s redistricting added sections of Queens to the district and made it unwinnable for any Republican.  But Green, like Lindsey, was a very liberal Republican who, even in the 1980s, did not fit into the GOP caucas.  He was dubbed a "Gypsy Moth" Republican and was the most liberal member of the GOP House caucas (which at the time included folks like Constance Morella).  

So, at least at the federal level, the UES has been ideologically left of center for more than half a century.  

With regards to presidential elections, I suspect that Nixon may have won the UES in 1972, since he only lost NYC by a small margin to McGovern (which is quite fascinating given the fact that Obama crushed Romney by something like 82-17 in 2012).  I'm not sure if Ford ran ahead of Carter in 1976.  But I have little doubt that every Democratic presidential candidate has carried the UES side since 1980.  Indeed, Romney didn't win a single electoral district (precinct) on the UES in 2012 (unless you count the Waldorf Astoria which had something like six voters and is really located in Midtown).    


[ Parent ]
Ford lost the UES
He did poorly in NYC due to his bailout reluctance: see Daily News "Ford to City: Drop Dead" headline. He only kept NYS close by a stellar performance upstate.

The UES is very conscious of being culturally correct & conformity to such norms as the NYT et al publicize. They'll vote for an R if Pinch Sulzberger tells them it's ok to do  


[ Parent ]
Reagan did VERY well on the UES in 1984
Remember Reagan won NYS in '84. In 1984 Reagan won a lot of precincts that are now probably 80%+ Obama districts.  

[ Parent ]
He won NYS in 1984
because he won all the blue collar Dem areas in NYC and the suburbs.  I really doubt he did well in the limousine liberal areas in Manhattan.  The results in 1980 and 1984 for New York County were:

1980: Carter 62-26-9
1984: Mondale 72-27

as compared to nearby years

1968: Humphrey 70-26-2
1972: McGovern 66-33
1976: Carter 73-26
1988: Dukakis 76-23

Perhaps someone w/ the Almanac of American Politics in 1986 or 1988 can look up Bill Green's district and give us the percentages for 80/84.

The only reason why I suggested that Ford might have won the UES is because Jimmy Carter was really disliked by limousine liberals and many voted for Ford.  Places like Marin County in the Bay Area voted for Ford.  Heck George McGovern admitted recently that he voted for Ford.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
*Reaches for bookshelf*
Here's some numbers from Bill Green's district:

1968 (then numbered the 17th, when Koch was the incumbent)
Humphrey 57%* (excludes Liberal party numbers, total may be 1 to 5 percent higher)
Nixon    41%
Wallace  3%

1972 (renumbered the 18th, Green elected by now)
McGovern 58%
Nixon     42%

1976
Carter 63%
Ford    37%

1980
Carter    49%
Reagan   37%
Anderson 11%

1984 (now renumbered the 15th)
Mondale  60%
Reagan   39%

1988
Dukakis  66%
Bush      33%

1992 (now renumbered the 14th, Green is defeated this year)
Clinton  69%
Bush     23%
Perot     7%


[ Parent ]
That was kind of what I expected
Thanks for the numbers.  I'm surprised that Carter did as well as he did in 1976, he was completely alien to the politics of that area.  Many liberals voted for Ford that year, including George McGovern.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
In the 1980s Green's districts wasnt just the UES
It also included the LES and Chinatown as well. While Green built relations with local leaders in those areas and did much better than most Republicans, Reagan got killed in those EDs. So Reagan's 37% total for the whole Congressional district meant he did a lot better than that on the Upper East Side.

[ Parent ]
Yeah . . .
Lots of Jews detested Carter by 1980, believing him to be anti-Israel and a closet anti-Semite.  My mom was a diehard Democrat and only voted for a Republican once (out of fourteen times) in a presidential election -- for Reagan over Carter in 1980.  And that was an agonizing decision for her.  

[ Parent ]
As I suspected . . .
Nixon was the most competitive  recent Republican presidential candidate on the UES.  And yet he STILL lost by 16 to McGovern in 1972.  At a time when he lost NYC overall by a smaller margin.  

So, Dwight Eisenhower was the last Republican to win the UES.  This occurred, not coincidentally, when Coudert (the district's last right of center representative) was in office.  

Also, perhaps not coincidentally, Eisenhower was the last Republican presidential candidate to be endorsed by the New York Times -- the bible of the UES.  


[ Parent ]
Keep in mind
The 58-42 number is THE ENTIRE DISTRICT, which was more Democratic than the UES, so Nixon would have likely done far, far better in the UES than 42%.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Nixon won UES
Nixon won the 66th Assembly District in both 1968 and 1972.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Nixon in NYC
The New York Times on Nov 9, 1972 notes three Assembly districts that Nixon won in New York City: The 38th around Ridgewood in Brooklyn & Queens, the 80th in the northern Bronx, and the 66th on Manhattan's East Side.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I'm sure that he won other ADs in the city as well.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
No doubt he did
But the NYT expressly listed those three, and that includes the 66th which covered the East Side from 38th to 96th, which was the question at hand.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
PS.
That's both Midtown East (40th-59th) and the Upper East Side (60th-96th).

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
For the record . . .
Green did not win the seat until 1978.  Koch held the district from 1968 (when he was first elected) to 1977 (when he resigned the seat to assume the office of Mayor of New York).  

[ Parent ]
Not apples to apples comparason
Remember this district is not just the UES. And as it got redistricted over time it grew geographically and took on more non UES territory. The 80's district had the Lower East Side and parts of the East Village in it. By 1992 the district had Queens & Brooklyn portions in it. So numbers really dont match up. What you really need to see is what the presidential numbers look like in the old Roy Goodman senate district or the John Ravitz assembly district.

[ Parent ]
If I remember correctly
The America Votes manual by Richard Scammon has election results by state Assembly district for New York, with maps of those districts.  But I think you'll need to hit a college library to get that.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
This is a bit misleading
Since its talking about White British, not Whites generally, though a lot of older UKIP voters would not see much difference.

London is the economic heart of the country in a way that New York cannot even dream of approaching in the United States. This is especially true following the 2008 Economic crisis which more or less wiped out Edinburgh as a secondary financial hub.

As a consequence London is a city of three types of residents. Students, high-end service employees(bankers, lawyers, journalists, government officials), and low-end service(shop keepers). A further group is the children of the latter two groups, but the key component is that for someone over age 23-24 to remain in London these days they need either a high-end job or to basically take over their parent's convenience store. Anyone in the middle will tend to move out of central London.

London is diversifying, but its a very different white flight than occurred in many US cities(some areas are suffering from that, but even Tower Hamlets is seeing Islamists fighting a losing battle against yuppie gentrification). Native Britons are being priced out, but they are being largely replaced with Europeans, and until the last year and half, Americans, Canadians, Australians, Singaporeans, and Philipinos.

The Tories actually tended to be competitive with these voters since they are fairly wealthy, though a majority probably voted Liberal Democratic until 2010. Whats killed the Tories with this group is the way they have gone about immigration restrictions. Most of this group is high-income, the equivalent of H1B holders in the US, and would not oppose a crackdown on low-income illegals. But because the EU promises open movement, the only people the Tories can crack down on are legal immigrants from outside the EU, so it would be the equivalent of the Republicans, having been elected in 2010 on a platform of building a wall on the Mexican Border, found that impossible and capped H1Bs at 2000 a year and explicitly not excluding existing holders of work Visas. And you don't need to be a citizen to vote in municipal elections.

Hence why Boris Johnson has been so loudly critical of the government on that issue.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Yeah, this guy was a London (Kensington) MP.
You should read the Wikipedia article, he's a fascinating guy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A...


[ Parent ]
RI Gov Race
http://www.turnto10.com/story/...

Gen Treas Raimondo and Providence Mayor Taveras Gearing Up for Run


lol
Where do they get these so-called "political analysts?"

Schiller said she thinks Republicans should spend their energies on rebuilding the party rather than trying to win the governorship.


R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
thats disgrace
Lincoln Almond nor Don Carcieri weren't exactly known quantities.

If Tavares won primary a right GOP could win. Tavares would win Providence hurting Chafee. I don't think Chafee winning Warwick again.


[ Parent ]
I think Doherty could win
under any scenario; he's a stronger candidate than Robtaille was and I think he could hit 40.

Chaffee has basically no crossover appeal, but he does maintain a significant Dem base. As long as he can pull 15-20% we can win. We probably won't get quite so lucky as to get a 35% race like last time, but I could see us winning 40R-35D-20LC-5KB.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
Looking doubtful Sullivan will make the ballot. http://www.wcvb.com/news/polit...

R - MD-7

From what I'm personally hearing...
All three candidates are likely to net the 10K signatures. I've only signed for Winslow, but that's because my friend is collecting for him. It should be him, Gomez and Sullivan, in that order, in terms of most sigs gathered.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
If all three get the signatures
whom does Sullivan take votes from, Winslow or Gomez?

Ed Markey is turning out to be a campaigning disaster, and Stephen Lynch will be disliked by social liberals, so there is an opening provided that the candidate who gets nominated can run a decent campaign.  I think Winslow will do that, but Gomez seems quite flaky and perhaps too conservative.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Sullivan takes from Winslow more
but he probably wins the primary in a walk if he runs any sort of campaign.

Winslow is moderate even by MAGOP standards, but he has a good rapport with the grassroots. Gomez seems slightly more conservative, but the grassroots (Michael Graham, Barbara Anderson, RMG) seem to be actively against him. The way he wins is by outspending everyone and getting big-name endorsements from the party apparatus.

Sullivan OTOH has higher name rec and is more conservative* than either. Unless he doesn't run a functioning campaign he's probably a 75% favorite to win.

*conservative by MA standards (AKA about on par with Brown).

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
The best analogy
Think of the Republican equivalent of a Dem primary between:

Schweitzer (Winslow)
Corzine (Gomez)
Hillary (Sullivan)

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
MA-Gov
More talk of a Brown-Baker ticket. http://bostonherald.com/news_o...

Think Baker would be best off running for Treasurer; Brown could use a woman on his ticket (i.e. Mary Connaughton or Shauna O'Connell) and Baker would probably be our strongest Treas candidate - in fact, with his name rec, I think he'd have a better than 50% shot of winning the Treasurer post.

R - MD-7


Polito?
Or does her base overlap so much with Brown's that she would not add anything?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
She'd add less than the other two
Brown needs a bit more policy-making chops than she can bring. Plus the whole Red Sox License Plate "scandal" is basically the only thing she's known for.

Connaughton is basically my ideal pick for him - white collar, suburban, very strong policy chops, experienced running statewide, and a very non-polarizing figure. She's who Brown should pick if he wants to play it safe and coast in.

O'Connell is my second choice, and she'd be the one to pick if Brown really wants to go all in on a blue-collar strategy and claim a mandate. She has been the point person for the GOP's main project right now, stopping welfare/EBT fraud. Not exactly a polarizing issue, but one that can provoke some resistance among the moonbat set. She's a higher-risk, higher-reward pick.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
NYC mayor race
As a Manhattan resident the NYC mayor race interests me, and an interesting new development is former Bronx Boro President Carrion's securing of the Independence Party line in the race.  When Bloomberg won his narrow victory in 2009, he ran on both the Republican and Independence party line.  Despite being a Democrat, Carrion would like to be the Republican nominee as well, although that seems unlikely.  If the two front runners, City Council President Quinn (Dem) and former Guiliani offical and MTA Chief Lhota (Repub) win their party's primary, that would mean both major party nominees are non-Hispanic white.  This would give Carrion an opportunity with minority group voters, a huge chunk of the electorate in a city that is only 1/3 non-Hispanic white.  Although it is possible Carrion could win in that scenario, I don't think that is likely.  Many minority group voters would likely stick with the Dem party nominee.  However, Carrion could drain enough votes from Quinn to give Lhota a victory.  I think it is more likely Quinn would win in a 3 way race, but at least this scenario would give Lhota an outside shot at winning.    

I'd love to see Lhota prove competitive...
...but I think you're being awfully optimistic.

At this point, I'm about 95 percent Quinn will be the next mayor. The only thing standing in her way is a potentially competitive primary with De Blasio and Thompson, but, for now, she's winning that in a cakewalk. Lhota's problem is a lot of the business community has already rallied among Quinn, who's basically Bloomberg 2.0. Plus, Giuliani's endorsement, for the first time, is now seen as a negative among the NYC electorate. I think Lhota can only win against Thompson, who seems to be sleepwalking right now.

Oh, and Carrion will be lucky to break 3 percent on the Independence line. At the end of the day, minorities will break near-unanimously for the Democratic nominee.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Unless the Quinn/Thompson primary gets ugly
and racial (and this is NYC so it will). In that scenario you could see Dem supporters of Thompson coming out and openly endorsing Carrion in the general. So you could have Carrion leading a Lation/Black Bronx faction vs Quinn (Regular Dem) vs Lhota (GOP/Conservative Dems) 3 way race in the general.  

[ Parent ]
Except I think
that such a racial primary where Quinn wins would result in conservative white Dems voting Quinn not Lhota.  They'd be more interested in making sure that black/Latino backed Carrion doesn't win.  

I don't see a path for Lhota if Quinn is the nominee.  If Thompson is the nominee, perhaps.  Who knows what happens if DeBlasio wins the nomination, but the only way that happens is if NY Dems get disgusted with a racial war between Quinn/Thompson resulting in a huge amount of momentum at the end for DeBlasio.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
The D side reminds me somewhat of 1997's primary
That race was waged among Manhattan Borough President Ruth Messinger (supported by white liberals + party establishment + feminists + LGBT), Al Sharpton (blacks and Hispanics) and City Councilman Sal Albanese (moderates/conservaDems).

Quinn is Messinger with business community support. Thompson is Sharpton, only not offensive. De Blasio is Albanese, the uninspiring white guy.

The result of the '97 race was Messinger 40, Sharpton 32, Albanese 21.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Except here
De Blasio is the most liberal candidate in this field.  But in NYC, along with that he has a black wife, that could make him a late bloomer in the campaign if the Quinn/Thompson battle gets really ugly and turn off voters.  De Blasio might surge at the end.  And he would be acceptable to all the Dems but the business community, which would probably back Lhota.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
To be fair . . .
Although Quinn is to the left of Bloomberg, she is to the right of Messinger, who was probably the most ideologically left Dem nominee for mayor in NYC history.

What worries me is that a Mayor Quinn, lacking Bloomberg's unlimited financial firepower, is likely to kowtow to left liberal constituencies and interest groups in order to maintain political power.    


[ Parent ]
Except I think
in order to win such a Dem primary Quinn would have to alienate those very conservative ethnic Dems she would need to beat Lhota. Remember such a primary could be divisive not only by race but also by sexual orientation and because the GOP Senate insists on keeping the primaries in Sept if there is a runoff you could see a VERY short general election campaign.

[ Parent ]
Oregon
I just spent 10 minutes in my dorm's laundry room catching up with a Portland progressive. She's a nice girl but we, obviously, don't see eye to eye on much.

Anyway, I asked her how her environmentalist activism was going and the conversation moved on to Oregon politics and she then spent a good few minutes talking about how awfully conservative Kurt Schrader is and how he has no statewide future. I just wonder if Portland liberals wouldn't try causing trouble for him by backing some granola liberal Democratic primary challenger...


all 2000 or so portland liberals?
They moved the 5th almost entirely out of Multnomah.

We really should have that district, its only 50.5% Obama 2012 and barely to the left of Reichert's (new) district.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
OR-05
I meant more in terms of Portland progressives from OR-01, 03 and 05 helping bankroll him.

[ Parent ]
ah, rhetoric matters I suppose
His actual voting record is far to the left of the so called 'blue dogs'. He voted the Pelosi agenda pretty much down the line I believe.

Once in a while he puts out a nice anti government spending soundbite, but I'm curious as to what is not, err, progressive about him.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Balanced Budget Amendment, for one


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
He's sort of
a Carper or a Kent Conrad. Makes a few overtures toward fiscal conservatism but is otherwise a standard D vote.  

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The most underhanded scurrilous attack yet
We've seen a lot of ugly attacks in our time, but Jan Perry's LA mayoral campaign has gone lower than anyone can imagine. She's accused Wendy Gruel of being a Republican.

http://ethics.lacity.org/pdf/c...

Is there no ethics left in politics?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Kiss of death
Might as well air videotape of Gruel waterboarding a puppy.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing you're sarcastic
but apparently it was true at some point.  And thus its fair game.


Greuel, it turns out, was a registered Republican during the Reagan years, in her 20s. She re-registered as a Democrat long before she ran for office. This is likely to come up, if it hasn't already, in the party endorsement process as evidence that Greuel is not a lifelong, committed Democrat.

Agi Kessler, the chair of DPSFV, said she had not heard that Greuel was once a Republican. But, she added, "I would find it hard to believe it would make a difference based on her record."

http://blogs.laweekly.com/info...

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
The attack on Gruel
Yes, it was true, but Perry's mailer implies that Gruel is currently a Republican. That's upset the liberal establishment, who has rallied to her defense. To many here in LA, they'd sooner vote for a rapist who is a Democrat than a Republican. So while I appear to be implying something that isn't a bad thing as something that is there are some who'll see it that way.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
IA-Sen; Branstad tries to publicly push for Latham, while dissuading King
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

I find it interesting that Branstad mentions that he doesn't know if Latham has any interest. More and more, my sense is that both Latham and King pass. They are both in their 60s and have accumulated seniority. They both are also looking solid for the rest of the decade in their current seats.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


old story
Dated last November.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Here's the right link from his interview with Politico today
http://www.politico.com/multim...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I disagree about King
if Latham passes, King runs.  If he has any chance of getting to the Senate, 2014 is it.  It will take a wave election, but King could win statewide in a 2010-type year if, and its a big if, he avoids any stupid statements and runs a decent campaign.
King would have no chance in a Presidential year (unless that is also a GOP wave year.)

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
I don't know
It is a pretty big assumption to think someone will give up a relatively safe house seat for less than a 50-50 shot at the senate. There is a long list of folks who have passed on such situations before (Reichert, Gerlach, Giffords, etc...).

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Well Giffords
is not a good example.  Had she not had a bullet lodged in her head, she very well might have taken the plunge in 2012.
And you've got a bunch of whom did give up a safe seat for a run that was iffy.  Tammy Baldwin, Rick Berg, Denny Rehberg, Mark Kirk, Shelley Berkley, Todd Akin, etc. were some of the ones in the last two cycles.

If Latham runs, I think King will be pressured to stay out, and probably will.  But otherwise, perhaps.  King will be hoping to take advantage of whatever anti-immigration reform sentiment there may be.    

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Gifford was considering in 2009 about challenging McCain
Baldwin was in a tossup race from the beginning and some prognosticators had it leaning her way. Berkely figured Obama would carry her, but she ran a horrible campaign (I bet she would want to recomsider). Berg and Rehberg were slightly favored going in, if not tossups. Akin was getting his advice from another being and Kirk was dealing a tough congressional campaign every cycle.

So, there really isn't someone like King who would be giving up a likely GOP or ever safe seat for a leans or even likely Democratic race.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Kirk didn't have a safe seat
Especially since he knew it was pretty likely Dems could control redistricting.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
PA-LG: Bradford County Commissioner Mark Smith (D)
Cuomo wants to ease limits on late term abortions
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02...

The governor has said that his Reproductive Health Act would be one plank of a 10-part Women's Equality Act that also would include equal pay and anti-discrimination provisions.

Translation: I'm not 98% the same as Chris Christie. 2016 primaries, anyone?

27, R, PA-07.


nothing he's done makes me think he's anything
other than a Rockefeller Republican.  And that's his problem.  He can't win a primary if people don't consider him liberal on economic issues, too.  He can win suburbs, but not the base.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
The question is
whether anyone can crush Cuomo in the cities.  The Dem primary race is now from liberals from the cities.  
Of course, if Hillary Clinton runs, all this is moot.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Warren
definitely can. And you can bet there will be tremendous pressure for her to run if Hillary doesn't.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Ok this is true
but Warren isn't really a good campaigner.  She'll raise money like Obama, but she can't give a speech anywhere nearly as good.

Although the Dems nominating Warren would be a possible exception to my comment above/below that no full-spectrum GOP conservative can win in 2016 in anything other than a Dem collapse.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I used that possibility as the silver lining in Brown's loss
Warren may have cost us a Senate seat in 2012, but maybe she'll give us the Presidency in 2016.

[ Parent ]
I don't think she'll run
The netroots may clamor for it, but she'd have to begin after only two years in political office.  That'd be the shortest tenure of any non-military nominee since...I'm not sure, maybe Lincoln.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Really?
Do you really think Obama's experience as a backbench State Senator in an uber-safe seat had any bearing on his campaign for the presidency? Warren's admin experience is considerably more relevant to national issues.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Obama was unqualified and unelectable
His record in the state Senate was about as far as to the left as Tammy Baldwin (who also should have been unelectable) was in the House.  He had a name that was not quintessentially American and rhymed with the worst terrorist in world.  He served in a church where his pastor was spewing hate every day.

This is the one reason that concerns me that Warren could actually win.  My guess is that Warren's aggressive style would backfire in the Midwest, but it is not impossible that she may be seen as a voice for a bunch of disaffected white voters who distrust both parties.  But I doubt it.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Warren would bomb nationally
She barely won here in a Presidential turnout. We are D+10, for crying out loud.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
I agree
but the results in Massachusetts were more of a reflection of Scott Brown's strength rather than Warren's weakness.  Warren won by about the same as John Kerry beat William Weld in 1996, about 7.5%.


Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
I think she'd be competitive, but ultimately lose
I'm tempted to believe college students and minorities would come out rather strongly for her, but a Warren v. Christie race, for instance, could finally mark the GOP's chance to win self-described moderates.

I don't think she'll run, though.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Yes and No
He'd at least run more than one campaign.  I think that matters. On the other hand, his experience from a policy standpoint wasn't any greater than it would have been.

But from an elections standpoint I think it mattered some.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Obama's campaigns in Illinois were a joke
He won his state Senate seat unopposed because his opponents were disqualified from the ballot.  He lost badly to Bobby Rush for Congress in 2000.  He won the Dem primary in 2004 largely because his strongest opponent, a free spending multi-millionaire, because divorce records showed him to be a wife abuser.  He won the general against an out-of-state joke who was there only because divorce records got rid of his initial opponent.

The only campaign that Obama showed strength was his primary win over Hillary Clinton.  You don't topple the Clinton machine in the primary with luck alone.  The primary electorate was 60% women.  I was honestly stunned with that result, to be honest.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Oh
For some reason I'd thought Obama had a tough primary in 2000. My mistake.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Here ya go
Here's a history of Obama's state senate elections.  Nothing here but unopposed races and races against no-name Repubs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Not 2000
State Senate race.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yep
I consider Warren's experience both in campaign and policy to be far stronger than Obama's at the start of his campaign.

If Hillary passes, I think the nomination is hers to lose (not that she couldn't lose it, but I'd peg her as about a 50-50 shot to win the primary if she runs.*)

*Which is a lock by presidential primary standards. For comparison, I'd give my two R frontrunners, Christie and Rubio, about 30% chances each of winning the nomination should each run.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Warren will
be in the same spot experience wise as Obama, at least in terms of years in the Senate.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Bah
Cuomo has always been much more liberal than Christie.

Here's my opinion, and I'm sure many here won't like it. But barring a complete Obama collapse and the following annihilation of the Dem brand (similar to what happened to Bush), Chris Christie is the only serious GOP candidate who can win in 2016 under the current Electoral College allocations. Immigration reform and its requisite improvement among Hispanics will flip one state for the GOP, Florida (which we absolutely have to have).  

I'm not seeing a clear scenario that in a close race, where a traditional GOP full spectrum conservative (Bush, Rubio, McDonnell, Walker, etc.) wins blue states other than Florida, Ohio, and their home state, which doesn't get you to 270.  Other less likely candidates who may be able to win are Rick Snyder and Susana Martinez, who also have a more moderate image, but neither are likely to run.        

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I'm mixed about Christie
I tend to figure:

1. NJ as a state is really beyond saving. Hence its economy in the shitter.

2. Given 1, he has done a damn good job, which is why Buono won't even say the words 'property tax'.

3. For some unknown reason, he retains far more popularity than the state of the state and his position on the issues probably merit.

Given 3 you might be entirely right.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Number 3
The reason why is obvious.  Hurricane Sandy and his actions during and after that.  Those actions pissed off many, but it gave Christie a real non-partisan vibe, and in this hyper-polarized electorate, that is a real breath of fresh air for a whole lot of Americans and New Jerseyians.   Now most of them won't vote for him, but it tells you the    

Hardcore GOP partisans may not like that Christie gets "rewarded" for his "treason" in the last week of the 2012 campaign, but they have to really think whether torpedoing his nomination in 2016 is worth likely electing a Democrat.  And you really have to ask, would Romney have won had Christie behaved in a more partisan way in that last week?  I think the answer is clearly no.



Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I meant to say
Most of the Dems won't vote for him...

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
that's only partially accurate
Christie's 'excess popularity' existed before Sandy.

I don't fault him for Romney's loss. That said, he increased government spending by roughly 7% in 2012.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
The one concern I have with a President Christie
He could end up being the GOP version of Jimmy Carter.  Carter was stuck between the liberal and union base in his party and the Republican/Dixiecrat opposition.  He was completely ineffective in passing any sort of legislation despite huge majorities in Congress, and had no natural base.  And with a whole bunch of economic and other problems, Carter had very little support to turn to.

Christie could have this same problem.  I could see Christie having major fights with both the dominant Southern conservative wing in his own party, and with the Democrats.  That may end up with him having no natural base, and if the circumstances are similar to the 1970s (likely as Obama will likely leave a budget mess that will explode on the next President.), it may result in a disaster for Christie.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Big difference
personality. Carter was a nail file and Christie is a chainsaw.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Sure
But Christie's tough personality works when people agree with him, and things are getting better.  It could backfire tremendously if things are not going so well and he's pushing views that are not popular (either with the GOP base or the general public).

Remember Rick Perry's "You don't have a heart" comment, and how the right reacted?  Christie may be much more crude than that, with both the GOP right and Democrats.

Look I strongly support the guy because I think he's got the potential to be a great leader and he's electable.  But I'm just pointing out one possible negative outcome of his possible Presidency.  You take that chance when you support someone who has the potential to be great.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I'm more optimistic on the GOP than you
If Obama's approval is below 45% by the time he leaves office, I think any of the people you just named could win.  If his approval is above 55%, I think all of them would lose.  And in between, it really comes down to the candidates and the campaigns they run.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
WAY too early
At this point in 2005, George Allen was a frontrunner for 2008 nominee.

3 years is a REAL long time in politics.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
True
But if Bush didn't drop like a rock and Allen didn't make the "macaca" comment, he probably would have been a frontrunner.
So you're right that anything can happen in three years, but you'll need similar events.  I also made a clear caveat that if Obama goes down like Bush did, that any Republican could win.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
State convention today
The dems have a new state chair today. Mark Brewer was replaced by Lon Johnson. It'll be interesting to see what changes.

Bobby Schostak (who had my support) survived a tough challenge today from Todd Courser.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


Backstory?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Writing it up
I was too exhausted to write one last night. Working on it now.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
AR-Sen; New poll has Pryor in a vulnerable position
http://talkbusiness.net/2013/0...

Approve 41.5%, Disapprove 35%, Don't Know 23.5%.

Beebe: 68% approve.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


No Boozman numbers?
Unfortunate.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
It is a little higher than that
The African American approval is a little low, and they will all end up voting for Pryor in the end.

It should be concerning to Pryor that 15-25% of the electorate still wonders who he is.


[ Parent ]
Dave Heineman wary of Senate run
http://www.politico.com/story/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

You wonder why
He doesn't just come out with a Shermanesque already. It's painfully obvious he really doesn't want to run. I guess people are really begging him to, to the point where he feels he needs to listen.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
He's probably going through retirement doldrums
Not uncommon for a guy in his mid-60s. He's going to be out of a job in 2 years, and even thought he has little interest in the Senate, he still feels like he has good years left in him and doesn't want to go from being governor to being put out to pasture. So he's probably sees the Senate as a way to delay retirement.

[ Parent ]
I don't think he'll wait much longer
I'm guessing he will have made his decision, probably not to run before the end of next month. That will give other candidates plenty of time to make their decisions and start raising money. I think he's just taking enough time to be respectful of those who want him to run.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Israel
Last I heard, a government hadn't bee formed yet. When is the deadline to form a government? And if a government is not formed, and a new election is held, what would been the likely outcome?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

The first deadline in March 2
than president Peres can give Netanyahu another 2 weeks to form a government so March 16.
The chances of another elections are considered low as it never happaned in Israel before, that also means that no one knows what would be the outcome of such elections.

[ Parent ]
First Italian exit poll
Common Good of Italy (big tent center-left): 32.7%
Unnamed right-wing coalition (Berlusconi and friends): 28%
Five Star Movement (populist joke party): 20.7%
With Monti for Italy (europhile centrists): 11.3%
Civil Revolution (communists and greens): 4.9%

The threshold for proportional representation is 4%.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


How will NYC Jewish vote go
It is interesting to note that in a city with a significant Jewish vote, none of the 4 Dem contenders for NYC mayor or Lhota, the likely Republican nominee, are Jewish. So who will Jewish voters support? Keep in mind that non-Orthodox and secular Jews from Manhattan, "Brownstone Brooklyn" and Forest Hills tend to vote differently from Orthodox Jews in South Brooklyn and parts of Queens.  My best guess is that the first group is likely to support Quinn, while the second group is more likely to support DeBlasio or Thompson (according to a recent NY Times article Thompson has ties to the Orthodox Jewish community in Brooklyn).  If the general election is Quinn vs Lhota, the first group is likely to support Quinn while the second group is likely to support Lhota.  Lhota is therefore likely to get the support of most white Catholics (although Quinn likes to play up her Irish Catholic roots) and most Orthodox Jews, but that is not going to be enough to win.  His only chance is if Carrion runs a well funded and vigorous campaign on the Independence Party line, and that remains to be seen.  I also wonder if Lhota's support of SSM will hurt him with the Conservative Party.  Sometimes I think the only issues they really care about are Abortion and SSM.  

Thompson speaks Hebrew and is close with Dov Hikind
So I could definitely see some support among Orthodox Jews, though I'm tempted to think most won't be especially engaged in the primary. If I'm recalling the '09 race correctly, though, many LGBT and pro-choice groups were very wary of Thompson and backed Bloomberg. I can't say for certain he's pro-life/traditional marriage, but there's definitely some friction there between Thompson and social progressives. I imagine non-orthodox and liberal Jews, however, will mostly back Quinn and De Blasio.

And yes, the Conservative Party is highly unlikely to endorse Lhota and their no-name candidate will probably net 1 to 3 percent in the general.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Lhotta's mother is Jewish
So under Jewish law Lhota is technically Jewish.

[ Parent ]
WATN - PA-15: Callahan gets tossed from wrestling match
This is the kind of low brow types that populate the Democratic Party in the Lehigh Valley:

http://www.mcall.com/news/brea...

28, Republican, PA-6


Slight clarification
I tend to associate this kind of stuff more with Northampton County, than the Lehigh Valley itself. Northampton has always been the more "pro union, pro old school" type of Dems.

I could write a book about Northampton Dems & bad behavior, but I'm hard pressed to come up with anything in Lehigh County or the other parts of the LV.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Well
The Northampton Dems have historically dominated Democratic politics in the region.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
My write-up on State Convention
Full Post is here

There's always a different perspective at these events as a county chair than there is as a regular delegate. As a delegate, I worry about my vote. As chair, I worry about things going right and not screwing up my part along with my vote. There's always room for improvement.

There's no further conventions this year. I think the next one is after August of 2012. Mackinac isn't a convention, but an open conference to those who pay.

District parties and State Committee were elected on Friday and State Party officers elected on Saturday.

I think the process went fairly well in our caucus (officers unopposed in the end), but I'd like to see if we can move our county caucus to different areas so people can hear. In the 8th caucus, we have three counties in one room. It made it tough for hearing. I stayed out of the Oakland and Ingham County caucus decisions. The process in Livingston for district caucus was fair. The results were what they were. When there's eight good people running for six spots, two good people are going to unfortunately lose. I'm looking forward to working with the new committee that was elected. We have a lot of work to do and be ready for the dems.

There were several contests for the chairs and vice chairs Saturday. A couple were unopposed. Most were easy decisions for me. Some were not. The runoff for outreach VC was tough since I didn't know the other two running (both from West Michigan). I knew the 3rd place finisher whom I supported back from previous campaigns. The youth VC spot was an extremely tough decision for me. I liked both candidates here. I think we will be in good hands there no matter who wins. The other ones were easy decisions for me. That includes my vote for Schostak as Chair. That was an easy decision for me.

Change for change sake is not necessarily a good thing. I'll repeat that. Change for change sake is not necessarily a good thing. If you are running for chair. CEO. You need to show me you can do the job. You need to show me how you would be better than Schostak. Schostak has a two year record as finance chair and a two year record as Chair. I don't think he did a bad job considering the situation he was dealt with. Do I agree with every decision made? No. What I do like is that Schostak has done what I haven't seen done by most MIGOP chairs in my experience. Adjust when needed.
-----------------------

More at the link.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


Response
1. I'm really hoping Tom Corbett retires after one term. I think he has done a great job as governor. The problem is that as attorney general, he missed Sandusky. Fair criticism or not, he's not electable in 2014. His approval rating is like 25%. He's toast. We Pennsylvania Republicans have a very, very deep bench. I mean look at our congressmen based in swing districts: Pat Meehan, Jim Gerlach, Mike Fitzpatrick, Charlie Dent, Lou Barletta (he used to be in one).

2. NYC is by far the largest city in the United States. It's also one of the few politically competitive cities for Republicans (even though Obama won NYC with 70%-80% of the vote in 2008 and 2012). We Republicans also have some good candidates: billionaire businessman John Catsimatidis, former Guiliani staffer and Cuomo-appointed Chairman of the MTA Joe Lhota, and two others. The nominee will likely go to a wealthy candidate (net worth over $50 million). Metro NY is the largest metro area in the United States, and is thus the most expensive. So Catsimatidis is likely to win the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, 2009 nominee Bill Thompson would likely be the nominee, considering how close he got to defeating Bloomberg four years ago. Longtime city Councilman Sal Albanese of Brooklyn make give Thompson a run if he can raise a lot of money. Bill de Blasio, the current NYC Public Advocate and former City Councilman, might give Thompson a run too if he can raise money.

Los Angeles, the second largest city in the United States, is also having an election, but Republicans don't have a chance. Right now there are three city councilmen who are running.

Detroit, the 18th largest city and the #1 most dangerous city in the country, is also having an election this year. That should be interesting considering how poor the economy is and how bankrupt the city is. There are two state representatives running right now.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican


Cuba-Pres
Raul Castro announced he is retiring.... in 2018. Also mentioned are possible electoral reforms including term limits, and age limits for politicians.

http://www.startribune.com/wor...

Is this a possible glimmer of light towards normalization of relations between our countries?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Maybe
There's a lot of bad blood to sail over right now, but I could see it happening eventually.  I think the human rights cases are the biggest stumbling block though, and would need some resolution first.  Get that out of the way though, and there are way too many reasons why normalization would be good for both sides to pass up and the main reason not to (cold war) ended 20 years ago.

It would actually be kinda awkward if Rubio is the president to do it, although it would also make it a lot easier (Nixon was the only one who could go to China sort of thing).

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
I believe Rubio is against normalization.
Although I am not 100% of that.

That being said, I don't think it matters as much who is elected our president so much as it matters who is elected their president. I think once the Castro brothers are out of the picture, it will be a lot easier for Americans to stomach. Although if a hard liner is elected in Cuba, all that goes out the window. I don't believe it matters as much who is running the USA at the time.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Agree
I think the far more important factor is whose running Cuba at the time not whose running the US.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Winslow has already collected about 25,000 signatures
http://www.thesunchronicle.com...

From what I'm hearing, Sullivan is struggling big time.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Sullivan probably won't make it IMO
His big problem is that the draft movement supporting him has never really reached beyond the South Shore... if he does make it I wouldn't be surprised if 80% of his sigs come from Plymouth County. When you add lack of a statewide structure to the other hurdles (no paid staff, late start, not a lot of media support) it's a tough hill to climb.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Trying to watch the Oscars
to escape some reality then Michelle Obama has to appear live at WH to present Best Picture.  Wow. No Words

The next Republican First Lady
should present Entertainer of the Year at the CMAs, just to balance things out. I'm sure that the liberals in Hollywood loved Michelle's appearance. The conservatives in Nashville (the singers, not all of the producers) would love, say, Jeannette Rubio presenting an award.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
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